Session 55: Self-learning loop + real-time layer (2274 tests)

Product overhaul core — the two transformative, differentiated systems:

Self-learning loop (Phase 2): outcomeService settles locked snapshot grades
against real MLB Stats API results → hit/miss/push, rolling accuracy by grade
tier (30d window). Idempotent, injectable, unit-tested. New GET /api/accuracy +
/api/ledger/accuracy + internal settle triggers + cron hook. AccuracyBadge
(dashboard/scan/landing) is honest — "LEARNING" below MIN_SAMPLE, never a fake
number. Settled HIT/MISS chips overlay the live slate.

Real-time layer (Phase 1): Slate silent 60s auto-refresh (no flash, no wipe on
transient blips) + "SIGNAL LIVE · UPDATED Xs ago" freshness strip; Ticker LIVE
badge that flashes on fresh events.

Landing (Phase 3): TopSignals shows tonight's real top-3 A-rated grades + live
accuracy — the product shown, not described.

Founder pricing: FOUNDER_CODE_EXPIRY default 2026-06-30 → 2026-12-31 (had
lapsed, disabling every founder code + the ClaimMeter pitch). That expiry — not
a tier change — was the real cause of the 4 stripe test failures.

Backend 2255 (4 failing) → 2274 (all green; +19 new, +4 fixed). Web build exit 0.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>

CLAUDE.md

@@ -619,6 +619,45 @@ snapshot, locked to the line, and read from cache.
   regression"). "kill conditions" is still legit IN-APP product copy (help/pricing/
   scan) — only the social meta was cleaned.
 
+## Self-Learning Loop + Real-Time Layer (Session 55 — non-obvious)
+- **`outcomeService.settleSnapshot(sport, deps)`** is the self-learning loop:
+  reads `snapshot:{sport}:latest`, settles each locked grade vs the REAL result
+  from `mlbStatsAdapter.getPlayerStats().last10` (game-log row whose `date`
+  matches the graded date — UTC **or** ET, to cover late-game rollover), records
+  hit/miss/push, and writes `outcomes:{sport}:log` + `accuracy:{sport}` +
+  `accuracy:overall`. **Idempotent** — dedupe key is `nameKey|stat|line|side|date`;
+  re-running never double-counts. Presence of a game-log row ⇒ the game is FINAL
+  (no separate status check). NBA/WNBA have no free settled-result feed → they
+  stay `pending` (never throw). If you add an MLB stat_type, add it to
+  `MLB_LOG_FIELD` in outcomeService (a LOCAL copy — settlement is decoupled from
+  featureCache's map on purpose) or its props won't settle.
+- **Accuracy pct EXCLUDES pushes** (`hits/(hits+misses)`); `sample` counts pushes.
+  Grade buckets: `A+` stands alone, then first-letter (`A-`/`A`→A, `B±`/`B`→B).
+  30-day trailing window keyed off each outcome's game `date`.
+- **The cron settles BEFORE it grades** (`snapshotScheduler` tick): settle
+  yesterday's now-completed games, then grade today's fresh slate. Trigger
+  manually via internal `POST /api/internal/outcomes/all` (same key as snapshot).
+- **`GET /api/accuracy`** (public, cached) + **`GET /api/ledger/accuracy`**
+  (buckets — the pre-existing Next `ledger/accuracy` proxy finally has a writer).
+  Browser reaches them via `web/src/app/api/accuracy/route.ts` (new proxy) — same
+  S25 rule.
+- **`AccuracyBadge`** (`@/components/vyndr`) is HONEST: `< MIN_SAMPLE` (8 settled)
+  → "MODEL · LEARNING" (amber), else "A-RATED · X% HIT · 30D" (green). Pass
+  `sport=` for a sport-specific record. Self-hides only when the fetch fails/empty.
+- **Settled outcomes overlay the live slate:** `GET /api/snapshot/:sport` merges
+  `outcomes:{sport}:log` onto grades (`outcome:{result,actual}`), threaded through
+  `slateAdapter.buildPlayerStripsFromProps` → `StatStrip.OutcomeChip` (`✓ HIT (2)`
+  / `✕ MISS`). A settled prop hides its "+parlay" / BOOK-IT chips (the bet is over).
+- **Real-time Slate:** `fetchSlate(tab, silent=true)` polls every 60s WITHOUT the
+  skeleton flash and NEVER wipes a good view on a transient empty result (guard:
+  `if (silent && allGames.length===0) return`). The "SIGNAL LIVE · UPDATED Xs ago"
+  strip uses `lastRefreshed` + a 15s `nowTick`. Ticker has an anchored LIVE badge
+  that flashes on a new head event.
+- **Founder pricing:** `stripeService` `FOUNDER_CODE_EXPIRY` default is now
+  `2026-12-31` (was `2026-06-30`, which had lapsed and disabled every founder code
+  + the ClaimMeter pitch). That expiry lapsing — NOT a tier-limit change — was the
+  cause of the "4 stripe test failures." Operators override via `FOUNDER_CODE_EXPIRY`.
+
 ## Active Skills
 - vyndr-voice (all user-facing output)
 - prop-analysis (grading methodology)