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proj-v1: book-implied from book_odds (grades carry odds, not fair_prob)

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The live fingerprint showed proj_book_implied null on every real row: grades
carry book_odds/locked_odds (e.g. -264) but NOT a de-vigged fair_prob, so keying
the book comparison off fair_prob yielded null. The book ODDS are exactly "the
book's implied probability" the handicapper test needs. Now proj_book_implied +
the traded rung's book_implied derive from americanToImplied(book_odds),
expressed on the OVER basis (under props → 1 - implied) so it's directly
comparable to our P(≥rung). Vigged (a known offset the ledger measures both
sides of). proj-v1 suites 24/24.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01VCNgGSt5qvcLxaeQqa7Zpj
This commit is contained in:
Kev
2026-07-23 04:14:04 -04:00
parent 316b79733e
commit e96b0dbb6d
2 changed files with 29 additions and 7 deletions
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src/services/projectionChallenger.js
+17 -4
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@@ -57,6 +57,13 @@ const abbrOf = (team) => {
return NAME_TO_ABBR[s.toLowerCase()] || null;
};
/** American odds → implied probability (vigged). Null on absent/zero. */
function americanToImplied(odds) {
const o = num(odds);
if (o == null || o === 0) return null;
return o < 0 ? (-o) / (-o + 100) : 100 / (o + 100);
}
/** Park factor (multiplier ~1.0) for a team's home venue, or null. */
function parkFactorFor(teamAbbr) {
if (!teamAbbr) return null;
@@ -179,13 +186,19 @@ function projectProp({
const rungs = dist.ladder(nb, LADDER_MAX);
// ── LADDER + book implied (only the traded rung has a book number) ────────
// The BOOK's implied probability comes from the book ODDS (grades carry
// book_odds, not a de-vigged fair_prob). This is the vigged implied — a known
// constant offset the ledger measures on both sides — expressed on the OVER
// basis so it's directly comparable to our P(≥ rung).
const tradedRung = isNum(line) ? Math.max(1, Math.ceil(line)) : null;
const fairProb = num(grade && grade.fair_prob); // de-vigged, graded direction
const bookOdds = num(grade && (grade.book_odds != null ? grade.book_odds : grade.locked_odds));
const rawImplied = americanToImplied(bookOdds);
const bookOverImplied = rawImplied == null ? null
: Math.round((direction === 'under' ? 1 - rawImplied : rawImplied) * 1000) / 1000;
const ladderOut = rungs.map((r) => ({
rung: r.rung,
p_at_least: r.p_at_least,
book_implied: (tradedRung != null && r.rung === tradedRung && direction === 'over' && fairProb != null)
? Math.round(fairProb * 1000) / 1000 : null,
book_implied: (tradedRung != null && r.rung === tradedRung) ? bookOverImplied : null,
}));
const pOverLine = tradedRung != null ? dist.round3(dist.nbSurvival(nb.r, nb.p, tradedRung)) : null;
@@ -194,7 +207,7 @@ function projectProp({
proj_point: point,
proj_line: line,
proj_p_over_line: pOverLine,
proj_book_implied: (direction === 'over' && fairProb != null) ? Math.round(fairProb * 1000) / 1000 : null,
proj_book_implied: bookOverImplied,
proj_distribution: {
family: 'negative_binomial',
r: dist.round3(nb.r), p: dist.round3(nb.p),