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Read integrity, as-of context, and the shadow matchup resolve (A1-A7)

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Seven orders of measurement-first repair. The served grade does not move.

A0/A1 — the unordered page walk returned the right COUNT and the wrong ROWS:
410-617 of 2,490 duplicated with an equal number never returned, while
rows.length matched the server exactly. safePaginate orders on a real unique
key, verifies the tuple at runtime, and THROWS on a query error instead of
treating it as end-of-data. Both hits PROVES are withdrawn: they were drawn
through that reader, and defense_by_direction's distinct-n was likely below
the gate floor all along.

A2/A2b — rolled across every reader: 11 FAIL -> 0. Composite keys pulled from
pg_index (the context tables are dated-composite and had no single unique
column). The unordered helper is deleted, not parked.

A3 — ledgerService and retentionService defaulted the SAME env var to
DIFFERENT versions, so no ledger row ever carried the marker eligibility
requires. One source now. model_snapshots settlement moved onto the cron:
15,484 -> 28,894 settled, repaired-champion 0 -> 7,556.

A4 — hitsFactorContext takes an as-of cutoff. Refusal over reconstruction: no
row at-or-before the date means the factor does not apply, never the nearest
row. Live path unchanged, proven 400/400 on real rows.

A5 — factor_inputs freezes what the factor READ, never the multiplier, so an
audit can recompute and check. It also recorded the finding: the three hits
factors have NEVER fired. prop.opponent and prop.opposing_pitcher are read by
the resolver and written by nothing.

A6/A7 — matchupKeys resolves those keys from the posted lineup plus the
schedule's probable pitchers, and fires the factors into a SHADOW freeze:
248 fires on 308 props, 245 of which would move the grade. The served
forecast is untouched. specs/a8-shadow-factor-gate.md pre-registers the test
that decides whether they ever go live.

Nothing is turned on. CALIBRATION_DEPLOYED stays []. Both verdicts stay
withdrawn. 4,772 tests / 371 suites green, web build exit 0, read-integrity
harness 34/34.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
This commit is contained in:
Kev
2026-08-11 22:49:56 -04:00
parent 387ae4d54e
commit f61ec6b391
49 changed files with 4874 additions and 308 deletions
Download Patch File Download Diff File Expand all files Collapse all files
scripts/prove-runs-rbi.js
+31 -15
View File
@@ -37,6 +37,8 @@ const tl = require('../src/services/model/testLedger');
const sk = require('../src/services/model/skillProjection');
const { knownNumber, knownRate } = require('../src/utils/known');
const { nameKey } = require('../src/utils/playerName');
const { paginate } = require('../src/utils/safePaginate');
const { uniqueKeyFor } = require('../src/utils/tableKeys');
const SB_URL = process.env.SUPABASE_URL;
const SB_KEY = process.env.SUPABASE_SERVICE_ROLE_KEY || process.env.SUPABASE_SERVICE_KEY;
@@ -52,18 +54,27 @@ const PA_EVENT = new Set([...HIT, 'field_out', 'strikeout', 'grounded_into_doubl
const mean = (xs) => (xs.length ? xs.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / xs.length : null);
async function page(sb, table, select, apply) {
const out = [];
for (let from = 0; ; from += PAGE) {
const { data, error } = await apply(sb.from(table).select(select)).range(from, from + PAGE - 1);
if (error) throw error;
if (!data || data.length === 0) break;
out.push(...data);
if (data.length < PAGE) break;
}
return out;
// ── THE SAFE WALK (Fix A2/A2b) ────────────────────────────────────────────
// This script used to walk pages with `.range()` and NO ORDER BY. Measured on
// production, that returned the correct row COUNT and the wrong ROWS: up to
// 33.6% of a read came back twice while an equal share never came back at all,
// so `rows.length` looked perfect while a fifth of the sample was missing.
//
// `pageSafe` routes every read through `src/utils/safePaginate`: a stable ORDER
// BY on the table's real UNIQUE key — single OR composite, looked up from
// `src/utils/tableKeys` rather than assumed — a runtime tuple-uniqueness check,
// and a THROWN error instead of a silent stop. The old unordered helper is gone
// rather than left beside it, because a dead broken helper is an invitation.
async function pageSafe(sb, table, select, apply, key = uniqueKeyFor(table)) {
return paginate(() => apply(sb.from(table).select(select)),
{ key, pageSize: PAGE, label: `${table}` });
}
/** THE MEASURED READS — main() and the harness call the same functions. */
const READS = {
opportunity: (sb) => pageSafe(sb, 'hitter_opportunity', '*', (q) => q.eq('sport', 'mlb')),
};
/**
* Reconstruct, point-in-time, from play-by-play:
* order[date|nameKey] the hitter's batting slot that game
@@ -170,7 +181,7 @@ const FACTORS = {
async function main() {
const sb = createClient(SB_URL, SB_KEY, { auth: { persistSession: false } });
const statcast = await page(sb, 'statcast_aggregates', '*', (q) => q.eq('sport', 'mlb').eq('role', 'batter'));
const statcast = await pageSafe(sb, 'statcast_aggregates', '*', (q) => q.eq('sport', 'mlb').eq('role', 'batter'));
const batByKey = new Map();
const barrelByKey = new Map();
for (const r of statcast) {
@@ -180,7 +191,7 @@ async function main() {
if (prof.barrel_pct != null) barrelByKey.set(r.player_key, prof.barrel_pct);
}
const oppRows = await page(sb, 'hitter_opportunity', '*', (q) => q.eq('sport', 'mlb'));
const oppRows = await pageSafe(sb, 'hitter_opportunity', '*', (q) => q.eq('sport', 'mlb'));
const oppByKey = new Map();
for (const r of oppRows) {
const prev = oppByKey.get(r.player_key);
@@ -192,12 +203,12 @@ async function main() {
const out = { generated_note: 'null is the ARCHETYPE base rate, leave-one-out' };
for (const stat of ['rbi', 'runs']) {
const snaps = await page(sb, 'model_snapshots', 'player_key, game_date, archetype',
const snaps = await pageSafe(sb, 'model_snapshots', 'id, player_key, game_date, archetype',
(q) => q.eq('sport', 'mlb').eq('stat', stat).not('archetype', 'is', null));
const archOf = new Map();
for (const s of snaps) archOf.set(`${s.player_key}|${s.game_date}`, s.archetype);
const led = await page(sb, 'ledger_entries',
const led = await pageSafe(sb, 'ledger_entries',
'id, game_id, player_key, player_name, line, side, outcome, game_date, p_win, quarantine_reason',
(q) => q.eq('sport', 'mlb').is('user_id', null).eq('stat', stat).in('outcome', ['hit', 'miss']));
const clean = led.filter((r) => !(r.quarantine_reason || '').startsWith('nontakeable_book')
@@ -298,4 +309,9 @@ async function main() {
process.exit(0);
}
main().catch((e) => { console.error(e); process.exit(1); });
if (require.main === module) {
main().catch((e) => { console.error(e); process.exit(1); });
}
// Exported so the read-integrity harness measures THE REAL FUNCTION.
module.exports = { READS: (typeof READS !== 'undefined' ? READS : undefined), READS_LEDGER: (typeof READS_LEDGER !== 'undefined' ? READS_LEDGER : undefined) };