builtbykev/vyndr
1
0
Fork 0
Code Issues Pull Requests Actions 5 Packages Projects Releases Wiki Activity

hits-v1 fingerprint PASSED: 72/72 written in prod, 45 outside the band modelled anyway

Browse Source 
The prod-write fingerprint that was blocked by the odds outage has landed on the
first snapshot after deploy. hits-v1 records exactly as the live-board
verification predicted, and the takeable axis behaves as specified -- scope is
book identity, never price shape.

The verdict is unchanged: hits-v1 is REFUTED and stays unpromoted. This confirms
only that it is recording, so the forward accrual can judge the backtest.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01W1sivYNqY2TS5ftykmHBU9
This commit is contained in:
Kev
2026-08-02 22:08:12 -04:00
parent 3ba3dd28f3
commit f897c7ec06
1 changed files with 21 additions and 1 deletions
Download Patch File Download Diff File Expand all files Collapse all files
specs/hits-v1-binomial.md
+21 -1
View File
@@ -294,7 +294,27 @@ unaffected — the deployed API and the MCP connection both use the correct ref.
The holdout was run with an explicit `SUPABASE_URL` override rather than editing The holdout was run with an explicit `SUPABASE_URL` override rather than editing
your credentials file. your credentials file.
## 11. POST-DEPLOY FINGERPRINT — armed, PENDING (blocked upstream, not by this change) ## 11. POST-DEPLOY FINGERPRINT — **PASSED** 2026-08-03
Confirmed on the first snapshot after deploy (game_date 2026-08-03):
```
hits rows 72 · proj_hits_p_over written 72 · 100%
mean p 0.538
takeable by identity 72/72
outside promotion band 45 — MODELLED anyway
```
hits-v1 writes in production exactly as the live-board verification predicted,
and the takeable axis behaves as specified: 45 of 72 real hits props sit outside
the promotion band and were modelled regardless, because scope is book identity
and never price shape.
The verdict is unchanged — **hits-v1 is REFUTED and stays unpromoted** (§7–§8).
This fingerprint confirms only that the challenger is recording, so the forward
accrual can confirm or overturn the backtest.
### Original PENDING note, kept for the record
Deployed 2026-08-02 ~23:05 UTC (the API 502'd and returned at 23:05:35, right Deployed 2026-08-02 ~23:05 UTC (the API 502'd and returned at 23:05:35, right
after the push). The **prod-write fingerprint has NOT landed yet**, and the after the push). The **prod-write fingerprint has NOT landed yet**, and the