49565b5f02a4adf2d9c2c713953c14c7e5dc3b9e
18 Commits
| Author | SHA1 | Message | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 builtbykev
|
f33091ddb8 |
Layer 3 Step 4b: public park base, source-pluggable, plus game-level capture
PHASE 0 — the settle path sees a player's game-log line, not the game. It knows date and teams, never venue or final totals. But the grain is far cheaper than per-prop or even per-game: ONE statsapi schedule call per game DATE returns every game that day with venue, linescore and scoring plays. Fifteen games, one call, verified live. PUBLIC BASE — the ingestion was already done. The static FanGraphs table from Session 15 is the public base; this converts its 100-indexed values into the multipliers the composable architecture wants (Coors 128 becomes 1.28) rather than ingesting a second copy of a number we already hold. It is labelled COMMODITY in the code, not just in a comment. Every resolution carries a provenance record, and the public one reads proprietary: false with the note "Commodity: a public number. Not a VYNDR derivation." The proprietary label exists but belongs only to the self-derived version, and only once it beats this base on the instrument. A surface rendering a park effect can state which it is rather than implying the flattering one. Honest-absent where even the PUBLIC number is thin: a relocated club in a temporary venue gets no factor, because a public number for a park with one season behind it is no more trustworthy than ours would be. SOURCE-PLUGGABLE is the architectural point. resolveParkBase() is the only accessor, public and derived return identical shapes, and callers never branch on source — so when self-derived factors clear their floor they swap into the same slot with nothing downstream to rewrite. A derived source with no factor available returns absent rather than silently falling back to public, because a silent fallback would make a proprietary claim out of a commodity number. GAME-LEVEL CAPTURE starts now because it cannot start retroactively. Game grain, deduped on game_id, never copied onto prop rows — a game's totals belong to the game, and duplicating them per prop is how one fact starts disagreeing with itself. Every field is tied to a named future derivation: venue for park factors, runs for the run environment, HR totals for HR factors. Nothing else is stored. Only Final games are captured, since an in-progress total is not a result, and a game with no scoring plays reports HR as absent rather than zero. HR totals come from scoring plays, which is complete because every home run scores at least the batter. The accrual target is stated rather than promised: 150 home games per venue at roughly 81 per season means about two seasons before a self-derived factor can be nominated, and accrualStatus() reports live progress per venue so the wait is measurable. Induced: Coors home runs +0.061 for the hitter and identically +0.061 for the pitcher's home-runs-allowed at the same park, mirrored on the under; San Francisco negative; Tampa flagged weather-N/A with its factor still applying; the Athletics' temporary venue absent; strikeouts untouched. A real 2025-07-19 capture produced 15 games across 15 venues, 12 with HR totals, zero duplicate game ids. Migration 035. Induce with POST /api/internal/gamectx/:date, progress at /gamectx/accrual. Tests 3688 passed / 298 suites, web build exit 0. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01VCNgGSt5qvcLxaeQqa7Zpj |
||
|
builtbykev
|
c5580f333e |
Layer 3 Step 1: wire the measurement instrument
Step 0 found we have been flying without one. p_win lives only in model_snapshots, which has 1,000 rows and ZERO settled outcomes; the closing line lives only in closing_captures, which carries no link to a result; and ledger_entries, the row that actually settles, carries no probability at all. So "is the projection calibrated" and "does it beat the market" have never been answerable — the entire measurable universe was 35 rows recovered by a lossy in-memory join. PHASE 0 — closing coverage verified BEFORE reuse, because an instrument built on a partial close measures a biased subset. closing_captures holds 70,254 rows of which 13,364 are usable, and the 56,890 refusals are candidates we never graded plus one-sided prices — not refusals of our props. Coverage on graded props since capture started is 83/83, 100%. Safe to reuse, with the honest caveat that capture only began 2026-07-20. THE FOUR-TUPLE NOW LANDS ON ONE ROW. ledger_entries gains p_win, fair_prob_lock, archetype_vector and projection_locked_at at LOCK time, and closing_prob plus closing_captured_at from the append-only capture store. The join is the whole point: calibration is p_win against outcome, market-comparison is p_win against the close, and both become plain SQL on one record instead of a join that silently drops 90% of the rows. p_win and the archetype vector are IMMUTABLE — written once at lock via the existing ignoreDuplicates upsert, never re-derived at settle. A re-derivation would measure a projection we never made. The archetype is stored as the VECTOR, not the label. "Did archetype-awareness help?" can only be answered against the axes that were live at grade time, and a single text column cannot express a blend. A grade with no archetype stores null rather than an empty object. HONEST-ABSENT BOTH WAYS. A past game with no usable capture is marked market_unavailable_reason and never given an imputed line; calibration still scores on those rows, only market-comparison is absent. And a game that has not started yet is NOT declared closeless — a close can still arrive, and premature absence is as dishonest as imputation in the other direction. One bug caught before it shipped: the scheduler hook iterated a SPORTS identifier that does not exist in that scope. Inside its try/catch it would have thrown ReferenceError every tick and silently never run — the instrument would have looked wired and captured nothing. Now iterates cadence.ALL_SPORTS. The baseline accrues FORWARD. Historical p_win and closes are gone, discarded before this existed. Calibration and market-comparison stay honest-absent until volume accrues. Tests 3614 passed / 294 suites, web build exit 0. Migration 033 applied. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01VCNgGSt5qvcLxaeQqa7Zpj |
||
|
builtbykev
|
528cb1a6d0 |
Layer 1: Statcast mechanism-data ingestion (backfill + nightly refresh)
The data foundation for the archetype and projection layers, built as the pattern every sport inherits. Layers 2 and 3 are not touched. PHASE 0 GATE — both match rates measured live, both 100%. Batters 40/40; PITCHERS 66/66 across five real rosters (CLE, DET, MIN, NYY, LAD) joined by MLBAM id against the 713-pitcher Savant feed. Zero honest-absent on identity, because the join is an integer both systems use natively — and the snapshot pipeline already stores it per graded row. SOURCE — five Baseball Savant CSV leaderboards, free and public, pulled with axios and the CSV parser savantAdapter already runs in prod. pybaseball is deliberately NOT used: it is an MIT wrapper over these same URLs, and adding it would reintroduce a Python runtime in a stack where the existing Python service is already offline. min=1 on every feed, not Savant's default min=q, so the long tail arrives and OUR minimum-sample gate decides what is thin — explicit and testable rather than silently dropped upstream. Measured: 1,354 rows per season (604 batters, 750 pitchers), all five feeds in about five seconds. Pitcher mechanism includes arm angle, GB/FB/LD, chase and whiff; batters get exit velo, launch angle, barrel and hard-hit, chase and z-swing. Handedness rides in free on the movement feed (677 pitchers); batter handedness stays absent pending a roster join rather than being guessed. BACKFILL AND REFRESH ARE THE SAME CALL — a full re-pull upserted on (sport, season, source_id). Idempotent and self-healing: a missed night self-corrects on the next run, with no incremental who-played bookkeeping to drift out of sync. At 1,354 rows the simple thing is also the robust one. HONESTY RULES, each with a test: a metric the feed did not carry is null and never 0; a thin sample is STORED and flagged rather than dropped or inflated, because thin and missing are different claims; an unjoined player is stored with a null player_key and joins later; and if every feed comes back empty the job REFUSES to write, so a bad night can never blank a good table. Freshness is treated as a truth property. updated_at on every row, and the scheduler pages on a failed run AND on silent staleness — a job that stops being scheduled never produces a failure, so staleness has to alarm on its own. Never-built is deliberately not stale: different condition, different fix, and paging on a fresh install teaches the operator to ignore the alarm. Nightly at STATCAST_HOUR_UTC (default 11 UTC, after every game is final), kill switch STATCAST=0, and induce-able at POST /api/internal/statcast/refresh with a freshness probe at /statcast/status — we verify a refresh by running it, not by waiting for the slot. Migration 030 applied. Promoted columns for the classification-critical metrics plus a metrics JSONB carrying every raw field, so Layer 2 can reach something we did not promote without a re-ingest. Raw per-pitch stays out of Postgres on purpose: one season is ~0.85 GB against a 500 MB plan ceiling, and it is re-pullable from the free source if Layer 3 ever needs it. Pattern documented in docs/MECHANISM-DATA.md for NBA tracking and NFL Next Gen. Tests 3581 passed / 292 suites, web build exit 0. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01VCNgGSt5qvcLxaeQqa7Zpj |
||
|
builtbykev
|
77a58e4113 |
Arm harness on our scheduler + start closing-line capture (capture only)
PART A — HARNESS ARMED ON OUR OWN INFRA. snapshotScheduler now runs the
nightly backtest at HARNESS_HOUR_UTC (default 14), appends to
harness_results, and pages via opsWatch.harnessStaleAlarm — a validator
that stops running looks exactly like one that keeps passing. No external
dependency: the join is plain SQL through the service client and the
harness is a pure function. POST /api/internal/harness/run induces the
same code path on demand, because a scheduled mechanism is verified by
inducing it, never by waiting for a slot.
PART B PHASE 0 — GATE PASSED for what is capturable:
- C4 diagnosed: closing_line is ONE overwritable field with no timestamp
and no provenance. captureClosing writes the current line and, when a
prop fails to match, silently leaves the earlier value (= the lock) in
place — so "captured a real close" is indistinguishable from "never
updated". It is 92% equal, not 100%: 56 rows DID record movement, so
the defect is provenance, not the value.
- Feeds: normalized props already carry BOTH raw side prices per book,
with game_time, and the intraday refresh polls every ~20 min during
slate hours — so the last observable pre-lock line is available.
- SHARP close: pinnacle is in ALLOWED_BOOKS -> a no-vig reference is
capturable ("beat the market").
- ODAWA: NOT capturable. 'odawa' exists only as a UI preference option in
onboarding/settings; it is in no adapter, no ALLOWED_BOOKS, no feed. An
un-capturable source is a finding, not a gap to paper over.
- JOIN: must drop `line` from the natural key, because a close that MOVED
off the graded line is the entire point of CLV. Verified safe — all 164
current identity groups have exactly ONE line per
(sport, player_key, stat, side, game_date). Zero ambiguity.
PART B PHASE 1 — CAPTURE ONLY, built test-first. The refusal was proven
before the capture logic existed: unbound game_time, doubleheader
ambiguity, a missed pre-lock window, or a one-sided price all record
missed_reason with NO price. A stale or mid-day line substituted for a
close would manufacture a CLV proof from a number that was never the
close.
migration 029 closing_captures: append-only, never overwritten (that is
the provenance C4 lacked), BOTH raw side prices so the existing de-vig
engine can compute a fair closing probability later, sharp vs book line
types kept distinct. Wired into the intraday refresh with a capture-rate
alarm — a missed close is unrecoverable.
NO CLV metric built, as ordered. This starts the clock.
Suite 284/3417 green, build exit 0.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01SmNjJAwEnqHPtXbvSZR8kA
|
||
|
builtbykev
|
d4a6170ffa |
Settlement fix forward: date-targeted resolution + terminal states
Order 1 of 2. Push scoring UNTOUCHED — it is correct. No healing here.
PHASE 1 — DATE-TARGETED FETCH replaces the rolling window for settlement.
settleSource.resolveOutcome() resolves the SPECIFIC DATE and, when the
player is absent, reads GAME STATE to learn what the absence MEANS:
game final + player has a line -> SETTLE (a partial game is a real
result, never a void)
game final + player absent -> VOID (confirmed DNP)
postponed / cancelled -> VOID
scheduled / in progress / SUSPENDED -> PENDING (a suspended game resumes;
voiding it would destroy a real bet)
player played, stat missing -> unknown, NEVER void a real appearance
This is FREE for MLB: mlbStatsAdapter.getPlayerGameLog already returned the
full season log and getPlayerStats was discarding it with .slice(-10).
Settlement now reads fullLog — same request, same cache — which removes
window-decay entirely (the verified failure was a Jul 12 game outside a
last10 starting Jul 6). Projections keep using last10, unchanged.
PHASE 2 — TERMINAL STATES (migration 026 applied). outcome CHECK widened to
hit/miss/push/void/unrecoverable; added settle_attempts, settlement_source,
settlement_version, model_version. A row that cannot be resolved after
SETTLE_ATTEMPT_CAP (4) date-targeted attempts becomes 'unrecoverable'
rather than pending forever. CRITICAL: getModelAggregate now EXCLUDES void
and unrecoverable from the settled selection — it used
.not('outcome','is',null), so without this a void would have counted as a
settled row and silently moved the public record. Verified in the record
calc, not just the settle path.
PHASE 3 — SETTLEMENT-RATE ALARM. zeroSettleAlarm only caught a TOTAL zero
while ~30% of a slate failed quietly (Jul 17: 57/86). opsWatch
.settlementRateAlarm pages when resolved/attempted falls below
SETTLE_RATE_FLOOR (0.8). Voids count as RESOLVED — a void is a legitimate
terminal state — so healthy voiding never pages. Third silent-failure
surface of the night, now closed.
PHASE 4 — VERSION STAMPING. src/config/modelEras.js defines the cutoff
ONCE (2026-07-19T22:50:00Z); migration 026 backfilled pre-cutoff rows as
'pre-retention-unknown' (naming the uncertainty, not implying knowledge);
new rows carry model_version.
Regression caught pre-deploy: getScheduleFn was not injectable, so the
ledger suite hit the real network and HUNG. Now injectable via opts and a
no-op under NODE_ENV=test. The "no row -> pending" test was updated to the
new behaviour deliberately: a missing row on a FINAL game now voids.
Suite 281/3373 green, build exit 0.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01SmNjJAwEnqHPtXbvSZR8kA
|
||
|
builtbykev
|
5a5e37e32e |
Retention: fill enrichment fields + page on a zero-write slot
PHASE 1 — cron capture needed NO wiring. Verified in code: the scheduler tick calls runAll = snapshotService.runAllSnapshots, which loops runSnapshot per sport, which already carries the onGraded -> retention hook. The scheduled path and the manual path are the SAME function. The reason no cron cycle had been captured is simply that no slot has fired since retention deployed (slots are 14/19/22/1/3 UTC; retention landed ~02:55). Induced proof follows the deploy. PHASE 2 — archetype/team/opponent were permanently null because retention persisted at GRADE time, before enrichment attaches them. Retention still COLLECTS at grade time (the only moment the feature vector exists) but now PERSISTS after enrichment, merging those three fields via retentionService.mergeEnrichment. The merge is pure and fills ONLY those three fields — features and every model output are grade-time values and must never be rewritten by enrichment; a test asserts that. Unmatched rows (refusals not in the enriched slate) keep nulls rather than guesses. The empty-slate early return now persists too: a refusal-only slate is still history worth keeping. PHASE 3 — ZERO-WRITE ALARM. opsWatch.retentionZeroWriteAlarm pages at missed-snapshot severity when a slot GRADED props but retention wrote fewer rows than the slate (or nothing). runSnapshot now returns retentionRows so the scheduler can evaluate it. Retention is best-effort by design so it can never break a snapshot — which means a broken write is silent by construction. This is the counterweight. A slot that graded nothing never false-pages; an absent count reads as NOTHING and still pages, distinct from a reported 0. Suite 280/3349 green, build exit 0. Outcome stamping deliberately NOT implemented (depends on the settlement fix). Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01SmNjJAwEnqHPtXbvSZR8kA |
||
|
builtbykev
|
4cd933d83e |
Job 1: per-sport snapshot cadence (config, not baseball's rhythm for all)
Every ACTIVE sport was graded at all five MLB slots (14/19/22/1/3 UTC). Sports post lines on different clocks, so that inheritance was wasteful both ways: WNBA props aren't posted at 14:00 UTC (10am ET) → that slot always graded 0 (the audit's "wnba:0"); soccer odds come from the 500/MONTH odds-api key, so five slots/day is a third of the budget for 1-2 matches. New src/config/sportCadence.js is the single source of truth (config-over- constants). Mapped from reality + quota headroom (PropLine 9k/day abundant, odds-api 500/mo scarce): mlb 14/19/22/1/3 intraday (full grid — games+props all day) nba 14/19/22/1/3 intraday (in-season fits; off-season self-skips empty) wnba 19/22/1 intraday (afternoon→evening ET; drops the 14/3 waste) soccer 14/19 NO intraday (WC live; 2 lean odds-api reads, key-protected) The scheduler still fires at HOURS_UTC and the missed-cron watchdog still references MLB (which runs every grid hour) — each slot now grades only sportsForHour(h), and only intradaySports() get the 20-min refresh. Every sport's hours are kept a subset of the firing grid (a boot-time guard + a test warn if that's ever violated). Retune a sport by editing one table row. Adaptive, not constant: near-zero when a sport is quiet, protecting the scarce odds-api quota from being drained by noon. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com> |
||
|
builtbykev
|
873a92931c |
Wave 1: NBA/WNBA settlement — grades settle vs free ESPN game logs
Unblocks the self-learning loop for basketball. Once an NBA/WNBA grade
exists (Wave 0), it now settles against the FREE ESPN per-game log
(espnStatsAdapter.getPlayerGameLog) — the same {found, last10:[{date,stat}]}
contract MLB settlement already consumes. accuracy:{sport} + by_tier
calibration + the Wave-3 TierRecord light up automatically.
- outcomeService/ledgerService: defaultGetPlayerStats routes nba/wnba to
espnStatsAdapter.getPlayerGameLog; MLB stays on mlbStatsAdapter.
- outcomeService: sport-aware statValue + a SEPARATE NBA_BOX_KEY/NBA_COMBO
map (S11 three-map-split kept — never merged with MLB_LOG_FIELD). Combos
(pts_reb_ast, reb_ast, stl_blk, …) sum components; a missing component
never fabricates a total.
- logRowOnDate: ESPN gamelog rows carry a FULL ISO timestamp (a late tip
rolls past UTC midnight), so basketball date-matches on UTC OR ET date;
MLB keeps exact YYYY-MM-DD compare. Outcome `date` is normalized to the
ET calendar day so the accuracy window filter + idempotency key behave
identically across sports.
- Final-honesty guard: never settle a basketball row whose ET date is
today (an in-progress partial box). MLB is final-only + settles same-day,
so the guard is scoped to basketball. The ledger path is already guarded
(.lt('game_date', today)) for all sports.
- opsWatch: nba/wnba added to SETTLEABLE_SPORTS; zeroSettleAlarm gates them
behind a real-finals probe (finalsBySport) so an offseason/off-day's
stale pendings never false-page "settled 0". snapshotScheduler counts
yesterday's ESPN state==='post' events and feeds the map; MLB unchanged.
- snapshotScheduler: boot announce per settleable sport
([settle:mlb] [settle:nba] [settle:wnba]). Thrown-error paging already
covers the new sports (settleAll* loop every sport).
Tests: tests/unit/nbaSettlement.test.js (16) — WNBA hit/miss/push, combo
pra, idempotent re-run, unplayed/today game does NOT settle, accuracy:wnba
+ byGrade + by_tier populate, ledger WNBA settle. opsWatch (+5) — finals
off-day no page, finals present DOES page. MLB suites unregressed.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
|
||
|
builtbykev
|
aaafc3e0f2 |
Merge S8 (a1): ops — the product watches itself
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com> # Conflicts: # BUILD-STATE.md # CLAUDE.md # src/snapshotScheduler.js |
||
|
builtbykev
|
044941d406 |
S8 (a1): ops — the product watches itself
Settlement alarm (settle-pass THROW pages high; morning zero-settle alarm keyed off the Postgres ledger settle results, once per ET date, never on an empty yesterday), per-sport 3-consecutive-slot failure pager (pure opsWatch.createFailureTracker, pages once per losing streak), odds-api >=80% quota alert (once per day, Redis-deduped), systemHealth (statfs + os mem, disk>85 / mem>90 pages), daily 9 AM ET pulse (ONE notification: ledger rows yesterday via ledgerService.countRowsForDate, settles 24h, quota, disk/mem, desk line), docs/OPS-RUNBOOK.md (Uptime Kuma monitors, Coolify deploy-failure -> ntfy, phone subscription). All copy VOICE v1.1 — deadpan, numbers, no exclamation points (tests lint for it). 2398 -> 2437 tests. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com> |
||
|
builtbykev
|
0e7871ac0e |
S4 (a1): the media engine — VOICE templates, /desk, Ghost drafts
4a VOICE v1.1 committed (board start); lint is EXECUTABLE — banned list + no-exclamation law enforced in the engine (throws in test, drops in prod) and locked by tests. Curly-apostrophe variants covered. 4b mediaEngine: deterministic templates (MORNING WIRE, SIGNAL, STREAK WATCH, THE SETTLE, RECEIPTS, ARCHETYPE WATCH, LINE DISPATCH) filled ONLY from snapshot/ledger/streaks JSON. Record percentages never render under n>=20 (counts + 'Record building' below). Stark layer = curated committed library (content/stark-lines.json), day-rotated selection — selected, never generated. 4c /desk (founder-only: requireAuth + DESK_OWNERS email allowlist, deny-by-default): all formats as text + <=280-char pre-segmented tweets with per-tweet copy buttons + char counts, wire/numbers-only variants, DATA BRIEF block (structured day numbers) with copy-for-claude.ai. ntfy ping after the day's first snapshot: 'Desk pack ready'. 4d ghostPublisher: DRAFTS ONLY (status:'draft' test-locked), env-gated no-op, HS256 JWT via node crypto (zero new deps). POST /api/internal/ghost/drafts saves slate preview + settle drafts. Nothing anywhere auto-posts. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com> |
||
|
builtbykev
|
4d2b27d1d0 |
Session 61 (pre-merge): live-verification fixes from day-one rows
1. [settlement] armed boot line — settlement WAS scheduled (the tick runs settleAllOutcomes + settleAllLedgers FIRST at every snapshot slot, src/snapshotScheduler.js) but was invisible at boot. Now verifiable from logs forever. 2. Null locked_odds root cause (4 day-one rows, all betmgm SB unders): genuinely absent in the DB — the first-seen book row carried no juice for that side. indexOdds/indexProps now PREFER a book row with both sides priced (still a real row, never synthesized). Display was correct: absent beats wrong. 3. Verified retry-safe: 'Odds data temporarily unavailable' is the odds-api quota gate (oddsService:423) — thrown BEFORE any spend or cache write; runSnapshot errors write nothing; the next cron retries fresh with PropLine first. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com> |
||
|
builtbykev
|
9ae64516e6 |
Session D (night2): Phase 2.5 — intraday refresh + directional movement
Odds-only refresh every 20 min during slate hours (noon–midnight ET), in-process (INTRADAY_REFRESH=0 kill switch; skips full-snapshot slots): - signed delta RELATIVE TO THE GRADED SIDE; direction is the signal. - WITH the grade → STEAM badge, never a re-grade. - AGAINST >=1.0 → re-grade THAT PROP ONLY at the real current line: holds/refuses → VALUE (better entry, same read); drops → PUBLIC revision (grade updates, revised_from_grade preserves the ORIGINAL forever, UI strikethrough on slate strips + ledger cards). - Every run recaptures closing_line/odds → the close is now refresh- fidelity; SYNC goes live by dropping SNAPSHOT_EXPECTED_INTERVAL to 1200. - Ticker MOVE events feed from the refresh (>=1.0 moves). - QUOTA MATH: 36 runs/day/sport x 4 sports <= 144 PropLine calls/day vs 9,000/day free capacity (3 keys x 3,000). Re-grades are internal compute. - POST /api/internal/refresh/all for manual runs. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com> |
||
|
builtbykev
|
d296e40cb6 |
Session 58: Phase 1 — Truth Infrastructure (2327 tests)
ledger_entries is live (migration 019 applied to prod, RLS + NULLS NOT
DISTINCT dedupe verified against the real database). Every grade now
persists, settles against the real result, and carries closing-line value.
- ledgerService: pipeline pre-grade upserts (public model record, user_id
null, idempotent), closing capture on every snapshot (last write before
game start = the close), settlement with SIGNED CLV (over = locked -
closing; beat/faded/flat), 30d model aggregate with the hard n>=20 rule.
- Write paths: snapshotService -> ledger (priority path); Next /api/scan ->
ledger for authenticated users only (anon never touches the public
record). Refused reads write nothing and don't burn a scan.
- Honest refusal (work-order 1.5): no projection => insufficient_data,
grade null, "INSUFFICIENT DATA - no read" UI. The web gradeAdapter no
longer displays the line as the model projection (the audit's
model==line / +0% edge degenerate); the card renders absent states.
projectionFor is sport-aware (l5 -> l20 -> {stat}_per_90 -> xG).
- /ledger: MY READS | MODEL tabs; model header shows hit% + beat-close%
only at n>=20, else RECORD BUILDING + live pending count. ModelRecord
deferred-render strip on landing + player hero. CLV + outcome chips,
revised_from_grade strikethrough (Phase 2.5 ready).
- SYNC (Task 5): thresholds vs SNAPSHOT_EXPECTED_INTERVAL (normal <1.5x,
amber >=1.5x, STALE red >=3x) via /api/snapshot/summary.
- Phase 2.5 logged in specs/vyndr-roadmap.md (build after Phase 3).
- Data-semantics hardening: strict null-safe numeric parsing everywhere a
market value is handled (Number(null)===0 would have fabricated lines).
Backend 2309 -> 2327 tests (201 suites), web build exit 0.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
|
||
|
builtbykev
|
2ae8a5697e |
Session 56: Full audit — PropLine + boxscore + pipeline + sport coverage (2289 tests)
Research (verified against live MLB Stats / ESPN / The Odds APIs): - specs/propline-audit.md — every stat_type mapped against our 4-layer pipeline; real MLB boxscore fields; sport coverage status; pipeline gap analysis. - specs/vyndr-roadmap.md — priority-ordered Sessions 57–64 + coverage targets. - scripts/propline-audit.js + specs/audit-data/ (raw capture). Headline bug: oddsNormalizer mapped batter_rbis → 'rbis' while the whole grade/feature/outcome chain keys on 'rbi' — every PropLine RBI prop silently failed to grade AND settle. Fixed (+ regression test). Phase 4 — wired missing MLB stats end-to-end: - PropLine MLB markets 6 → 12 (+runs, walks, doubles, earned_runs, hits_allowed, outs — same request, no extra quota). - doubles/outs/triples added to featureCache + outcomeService MLB_LOG_FIELD and all three grade whitelists (analyze/scan/validation.py). Phase 6 — pipeline resilience: - opsNotify.js: ntfy alerts (never throws, test-disabled). Snapshot success/ stale/failure alerts; retry-once on hard odds error (not on empty slate). - Missed-cron watchdog (mostRecentExpectedSlot/isSnapshotOverdue); status probe now returns `overdue`. Coverage truth: MLB is the only end-to-end-live sport; outcome settlement is MLB-only (WNBA/NBA/soccer never settle) — documented as the #1 roadmap gap. Backend 2276 → 2289 tests (+13). Web build exit 0. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com> |
||
|
builtbykev
|
d09a06c054 |
Session 55: Self-learning loop + real-time layer (2274 tests)
Product overhaul core — the two transformative, differentiated systems: Self-learning loop (Phase 2): outcomeService settles locked snapshot grades against real MLB Stats API results → hit/miss/push, rolling accuracy by grade tier (30d window). Idempotent, injectable, unit-tested. New GET /api/accuracy + /api/ledger/accuracy + internal settle triggers + cron hook. AccuracyBadge (dashboard/scan/landing) is honest — "LEARNING" below MIN_SAMPLE, never a fake number. Settled HIT/MISS chips overlay the live slate. Real-time layer (Phase 1): Slate silent 60s auto-refresh (no flash, no wipe on transient blips) + "SIGNAL LIVE · UPDATED Xs ago" freshness strip; Ticker LIVE badge that flashes on fresh events. Landing (Phase 3): TopSignals shows tonight's real top-3 A-rated grades + live accuracy — the product shown, not described. Founder pricing: FOUNDER_CODE_EXPIRY default 2026-06-30 → 2026-12-31 (had lapsed, disabling every founder code + the ClaimMeter pitch). That expiry — not a tier change — was the real cause of the 4 stripe test failures. Backend 2255 (4 failing) → 2274 (all green; +19 new, +4 fixed). Web build exit 0. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com> |
||
|
builtbykev
|
cdedecf55b |
Session 52: Coming Soon teaser + infrastructure verification (2239 tests)
Phase 1 — Push-to-Book teaser (feature not live; teaser only): - StatStrip: "BOOK IT ⟶" per graded prop (hover: "Push-to-Book coming soon"). - GradeResultCard: "PUSH-TO-BOOK · COMING SOON" footer. Phase 2 — infrastructure verification: - snapshotScheduler logs armed AND disarmed state (incl SNAPSHOT_CRON) so container logs disambiguate off-vs-crashed. - NEW GET /api/internal/snapshot/status (internal-key gated): cron_armed, cron_hours_utc, last_snapshot per sport (gradeCount/deltaCount), redis_keys existence map, ticker_count. The post-deploy pipeline health probe. - Finding: Redis AOF/RDB persistence is a server-side (Coolify) config the app can't set/verify — documented. Phase 3 — delta pipeline (verified sound, no fix needed): - runSnapshot already rotates :latest->:previous and diffs locked lines; added opt-in SNAPSHOT_DEBUG=1 [deltas] log + a trace test asserting :previous is preserved verbatim and the delta math is correct. Backend 2234 -> 2239 tests (+5), 192 suites. Web build clean (exit 0). Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com> |
||
|
builtbykev
|
f8b120c0aa |
Session 45: Snapshot pipeline + GameCard swap + live ticker (2100 tests)
The on-demand "Read" grade model is RETIRED. A scheduled pipeline pre-grades the
slate, locks grades to the line, tracks movement; the dashboard shows them already
there. Orchestrates existing services — nothing rebuilt.
- snapshotService.runSnapshot(sport): getOdds → gradeAndCacheSlate → classify
archetype per player → lock gradedAt → line deltas vs previous snapshot → write
snapshot:{sport}:latest/previous + grades:{sport} → ticker events. Fully
injectable, zero-network unit tests. runAllSnapshots = cron entrypoint.
- Internal trigger POST /api/internal/snapshot/:sport + /all (requireInternalAuth).
In-process cron (SNAPSHOT_CRON=1, UTC 14,19,22,1,3) in server.js, no new dep.
- Public reads: GET /api/snapshot/:sport (cache-only) + GET /api/ticker (merges
TICKER_MANUAL pins) + Next proxies.
- GameCard swap: live Slate renders vyndr/GameCard (legacy kept for types only),
overlays locked grades onto game props → player name once + archetype badge +
"Graded Xh ago at -115 · Current 2.5 · ▲ TOWARD +1.0". Ungraded → "Awaiting next
scan", NO Read button. On-demand onGrade flow deleted.
- Ticker polls /api/ticker every 30s, graceful fallback to hardcoded items.
- NBA/WNBA: espnStatsAdapter free fallback (defensive parse → found:false on shape
mismatch) wired into resolvePlayerStats after the offline Python service.
Env: PROPLINE_API_KEY_1/2/3, VYNDR_INTERNAL_KEY, SNAPSHOT_CRON=1, TICKER_MANUAL.
Backend 2061 -> 2100 tests (+39), 173 suites. Web build clean (exit 0).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
|