Commit Graph

6 Commits

Author SHA1 Message Date
builtbykev 37261260d1 report: over-side skew audit — champion over-CLV SURVIVES baseline (promising, not confirmed)
Read-only. Takeable MLB overs n=62. Mechanical baseline (no-edge) CLV +1.51pt
(n=20); high-edge +8.64pt (n=37); difference +7.14pt = real edge. Champion
p_win->CLV partial r=0.375 (SIG p~0.003) survives price control. Skew one-sided
(unders -7, over baseline +1.5). De-vig clean (same-book pairing, analyzeViaEngine1:539);
close well-defined (DK/MGM r=0.92). Greenlights building the takeable-edge grade
ON THE CHAMPION, not proj-v1.1. Flagged promising-not-confirmed: thin n, lock-time
multi-book staleness check BLOCKED (not retained), pinnacle ref n=8. No fix, no
promotion — diagnosis only.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01VsztNChZ7vEvSR61AuMhD1
2026-07-29 02:28:21 -04:00
builtbykev 59b77cdef2 report: proj-v1.1 takeable-edge proof — NOT PROVEN (n=45 MLB overs)
Read-only proof. N-gate passed (overlap 45). proj-v1.1 edge-CLV partial
correlation controlling for price = 0.245 (n.s.); ~half the raw 0.455 is the
shared -fair_prob_lock term (mechanical). Champion out-predicts proj on the
same rows (champ partial-CLV 0.380 sig; champ-edge->hit 0.25 vs 0.12). Unders
contaminated (CLV -9.3); WNBA proj-v1.1 doesn't run. Promotion HELD; the
under-audit is moot since proj loses to the champion first.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01VsztNChZ7vEvSR61AuMhD1
2026-07-29 00:47:56 -04:00
builtbykev b8ee216c62 docs: CLV instrument repair + the straight finding (unders lag the close)
closing_prob 59 -> 406 (MLB 248, WNBA 158). Root cause was attachClosingProb's
truncated read + write-once market_unavailable, not capture or the join. CLV
measured: MLB unders lag the close (mean -9.1 prob-pts, 74% lose), MLB overs
+2.0, WNBA flat -> the +4.57% MLB-C and over/under asymmetry are substantially
stale-line artifacts. Unblocks the proj-v1.1 proof order.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01VsztNChZ7vEvSR61AuMhD1
2026-07-28 19:04:50 -04:00
builtbykev afb56b144b NexaPay purge: VYNDR is Stripe-only — remove all NexaPay traces
NexaPay was cross-project contamination (from another venture) — never a real
VYNDR payment path. Purged; Stripe path untouched.

Removed:
- web/src/services/nexapay.ts (createPaymentLink/getTransaction/HMAC verify)
- web/src/app/api/webhook/nexapay/route.ts (the only importer; Next-registered,
  reachable — now gone)
- NexaPay comments in email.ts + checkout/route.ts
- Active NexaPay entries in docs/SYSTEM-MANIFEST.md (route list, NEXAPAY_* env
  table, service row) + stale claim in wiring-data-train.md
- sw.js precache entry for the deleted webhook chunk

Verified: ZERO NexaPay in code (web/src, src, tests). Full suite 3833 green
(count unchanged — nothing depended on it, confirming it was dead). Web build
exit 0. sw.js parses clean. Stripe checkout untouched (Next→Express→Stripe).

FLAGGED FOR KEV (a repo delete cannot close these):
- Coolify env: remove NEXAPAY_API_KEY / NEXAPAY_WEBHOOK_SECRET / NEXAPAY_API_URL
- Revoke the NexaPay API key + webhook secret at NexaPay's dashboard; de-register
  the webhook if an account was ever configured
- DB column user_profiles.nexapay_customer_id is orphaned (no reader/writer) —
  drop via a follow-up migration (migration 011 left as history)

Cross-project check: ZERO Noctem-Supabase refs; VYNDR references only its own
Supabase (zmdnczhtdxcddsxzttub). NexaPay was the sole contamination found.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01VsztNChZ7vEvSR61AuMhD1
2026-07-27 16:51:59 -04:00
builtbykev 3592aba8d5 docs: log honesty pass in completion matrix + STATE (rows 19/20/24 HONEST fixed)
Records the six live fabrications removed/hidden, keeps media/newsletter/WIRE on
the board as real work, logs the news/line-movement signal as a future model
input, and logs the known honesty gaps (hit-rate-without-ROI, CLV starved).
Honest state: "no KNOWN live fabrications," not "provably none."

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01VsztNChZ7vEvSR61AuMhD1
2026-07-27 06:07:21 -04:00
builtbykev be6b4a2849 inventory: VYNDR-COMPLETION-MATRIX (5-part DONE map of every surface + model)
Read-only inventory order — no code built/wired/fixed/deployed. Maps every
user-facing surface and model component against DESIGNED·BUILT·WIRED·LIVE·HONEST,
re-derived from repo b0a51c8 + prod + design bundle (not STATE.md narrative).
15/26 surfaces fully done. Names the graveyard (BookComparison, ShareCard,
proj_ladder, arch-v1/contact-v1 ledger-only, /intelligence orphan) and the live
honesty gaps (/compare hardcoded, FAQ NexaPay/Brier, MobileEdgeBoard placeholder,
EV fields NULL on served grades). STATE.md now points to the matrix as canonical.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01VsztNChZ7vEvSR61AuMhD1
2026-07-27 05:12:59 -04:00