builtbykev
1372e6bcf7
PHASE 1 (measured on the live prod feed with the real key): - WNBA is NOT thin at the feed -- 4.21 books/prop vs MLB's 3.61. It was allow-list-starved exactly as MLB was. This removes one candidate explanation for its anti-predictive result; it does not explain it, and WNBA stays abstaining. - We cannot see 64.8% of the MLB slate at all (zero admitted books). - Exchanges are real (smarkets 27%, novig 22%, kalshi 15% on MLB) but pinnacle, matchbook and polymarket measured 0% on BOTH sports. There is no sharp anchor for player props. The consensus is a MARKET consensus, not a SHARP one -- recorded as a permanent limitation, not a milestone. - DFS is the trap, quantified: prizepicks covers 82% of MLB props, the highest in the feed. Admitting it "for breadth" would have looked like the biggest available win. Permanently excluded. - Endpoints: /context WORKS and is FREE (umpire, roof, pitcher handedness, lineup confirmation -- richer than what we hand-built). /odds/closing and /movement are REDACTED (full structure, zero prices). /results and /exports/resolved-props are 403. - The $19/mo question is answered: soccer IS graded, ~15 competitions in 30 days (MLS 41k, Liga MX 15k, Brasileirao 12k, UCL/Europa/Conference). Our "soccer grades into a void" is a Pro-tier problem, not a data problem. NBA is absent because it is July -- seasonal, not inferable either way. PHASE 2 delta, corrected: MLB mean +1.50 pts, median 0, p90 +10.0, 17.0% of comparable props move >=5 pts, one-directional (the incumbent prices the over below the exchange-inclusive consensus). WNBA symmetric and tight. The median prop does not move -- the change is a right-skewed minority. That the rulers DIFFER is established; that the new one is BETTER is not, and that is the re-run. PHASE 2 item 6: ledger_entries.ruler_version applied to prod, 1,384 existing rows backfilled to v1_first_book (a statement of fact -- every row to date was produced by the first-book rule). ledgerService stamps CURRENT_RULER_VERSION on new rows. Never pool edge or CLV across it. Repo migration numbering lags prod; 025_ledger_ruler_version.sql records the DDL for review. PHASE 3: MLB isotonic p_win remains PROVISIONAL -- calibrated against v1_first_book, does not promote until re-run on the consensus ruler. NOT LIVE, deliberately: ALLOWED_BOOKS unchanged, served slate byte-identical, CURRENT_RULER_VERSION still v1_first_book, no live path calls consensusRuler. Gates: 4,022 tests passed / 322 suites; next build exit 0. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01QJs13VsyiSKYQP6rj3NNmc
38 lines
1.9 KiB
SQL
38 lines
1.9 KiB
SQL
-- 025_ledger_ruler_version.sql — Order Zero Phase 2 item 6 (APPLIED 2026-08-01)
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--
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-- Stamp the RULER that produced fair_prob_lock so pre- and post-change rows are
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-- never pooled. fair_prob_lock is the denominator of every edge and CLV number;
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-- changing how it is derived means a value computed before the change is NOT the
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-- same measurement as one computed after it. Arithmetically forced, not policy —
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-- the same reasoning as model_version.
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--
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-- v1_first_book — the incumbent: normalizeProps applies ALLOWED_BOOKS, then
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-- gradeSlateService.dedupeProps keeps the FIRST surviving row
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-- per player+stat+line. Whichever admitted book PropLine
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-- happened to list first became the entire "market".
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-- v2_consensus — median de-vigged fair_prob across >=2 REFERENCE books
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-- posting BOTH sides at the SAME line. NOT LIVE.
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--
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-- Backfill to v1_first_book is a statement of fact: every row written to date
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-- was produced by the first-book rule.
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--
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-- NOTE: repo migration numbering lags prod (the repo stops at 024 while prod
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-- carries later ones applied via the Supabase MCP). This file records the DDL
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-- for review; prod already has it.
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ALTER TABLE public.ledger_entries
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ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS ruler_version text;
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UPDATE public.ledger_entries
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SET ruler_version = 'v1_first_book'
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WHERE ruler_version IS NULL;
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ALTER TABLE public.ledger_entries
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ALTER COLUMN ruler_version SET DEFAULT 'v1_first_book';
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COMMENT ON COLUMN public.ledger_entries.ruler_version IS
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'Which fair-probability ruler produced fair_prob_lock. NEVER pool edge or CLV across differing values — the denominator changed. v1_first_book = first admitted book (incumbent); v2_consensus = median across >=2 reference books at the same line.';
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CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_ledger_entries_ruler_version
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ON public.ledger_entries (ruler_version);
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