vyndr/specs/arch-v1-axis-audit.md

arch-v1 AXIS AUDIT — env/matchup WERE DEAD; ENVIRONMENT FIXED

Date: 2026-08-01 · champion p_win, ranking, calibration and opportunity_drift's accruing verdict all untouched.

Gates: 4,077 tests / 326 suites green · next build exit 0 · audit run on prod · resolver verified live.

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STEP 0 — THE AUDIT: "already partly live" was half true

The code is wired. The axes were not firing.

Across 634 graded prod rows, challenger_adjustments axis distribution:

axis	rows	% of slate
(no axis fired)	296	46.7%
opportunity (new, ours)	142	22.4%
power	80	12.6%
swing_miss	69	10.9%
contact	56	8.8%
launch · line_drive · patience · strikeout · contact_allowed · aggression · chase · velocity · ground_ball · wild	51→1	—
environment (park/weather)	0	0%
matchup (platoon)	0	0%

Every axis that fired is an archetype trait. The two condition axes this order is about fired on nothing.

The ledger confirms it from the other side: env_multiplier, env_park_base, env_weather_mod, wx_forecast, env_weather_state — all null on 634/634.

Root cause, located rather than inferred

buildContext works fine — 15 games, 14 with weather, Coors Field composing to 1.241. The failure is downstream. A drop-off audit against the live snapshot:

hop	count
grades examined	120
with a team field	0
team resolves to an abbr	0
abbr matches a game	0
environment produced	0
with playerId	120
with bats	0
opposing pitcher known	0

team is a key on every stored grade and NULL on 416/416. The resolver keyed off the player's roster team, so it could never find a venue — while buildContext sat there with all 30 teams mapped and 14 weather forecasts resolved and unused. Nothing was broken in the park or weather code. The join key was absent.

(Side consequence worth noting: the S59 slate JOIN INVARIANT also keys off this same team field, so it is currently inert too.)

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STEP 1 — THE ENVIRONMENT FIX (and it is the more correct join)

The park and the weather belong to the GAME, not to the player's roster team — and the game rides on the prop from the odds feed, where a stats-resolve can legitimately fail.

1. gradeSlateService.gradeBestSide now carries home_team/away_team onto the graded row. The legacy grade shape dropped them.
2. environmentContext.contextFor joins on the game first (team → home_team → away_team), keeping the roster team as a fallback.

Verified live

	before	after
grades carrying home_team	0 / 416	416 / 416
environment resolves	0 / 120	105 / 120 (87.5%)

Coors Field composes to 1.241 (park 1.20 × weather 1.034) the moment it gets a key.

One honest limit on what is confirmed

The axis has not yet been observed writing to the ledger, and I am not claiming it has. recordPipelineGrades upserts with ignoreDuplicates: true and dedupes on (user_id, player_key, stat, line, side, game_id) — correctly, so a re-run never overwrites the original lock. Today's 429 rows were written before the fix, so the environment axis cannot backfill onto them.

game_date 2026-08-01 — 429 rows: opportunity axis 142, environment axis 0

First ledger observation: tomorrow's slate. What is directly verified is the resolver (105/120) and the join key (416/416), which are the two things that were broken.

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MATCHUP / PLATOON — NOT FIXED, AND NOT CLAIMED AS FIXED

It needs the opposing starter and both hands. The audit shows three separate absences:

oppPitcherByTeam  0      (the probable-pitcher fetch returns nothing)
handById          0      (so no pitcher handedness)
with_bats         0/120  (no hitter handedness on the slate)

Per the order's own guard — one axis at a time — that is its own order with its own diagnosis, not a second fix smuggled into this one. Fixing the pitcher feed without the hands, or the hands without the feed, would still produce an axis that fires on zero rows.

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STEP 2 — HOLDOUTS: BOTH AXES ARE n-BLOCKED

axis	settled rows carrying it	earliest proof
opportunity	0	first settle pass on 2026-08-01 games
environment	0	first ledger write on tomorrow's slate

Neither can be proven today, and a holdout filtered to axis-carrying rows cannot be run when that set is empty. The committed query (scripts/opportunity-axis-holdout.sql) already filters that way, for the reason drift established: including untouched rows dilutes the comparison with rows where challenger ≡ champion by construction, biasing toward a false positive.

Both accrue in parallel on the same harness. Neither promotes until its own holdout says so.

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WHAT IS UNTOUCHED

Champion p_win, the live grade path, ranking, calibration, and opportunity_drift's accruing verdict. The environment axis writes only to p_win_challenger / challenger_adjustments.

TAGS

VERIFIED: env + matchup axes fired on 0/634 prod rows · 13 archetype axes fire normally · team null on 416/416 · buildContext healthy (15 games, 14 weather) · post-fix environment resolves 105/120 and home_team present 416/416 · matchup blocked by three separate absences.

NOT YET OBSERVED: the environment axis writing to the ledger — blocked by same-day dedupe, first visible on tomorrow's slate.