builtbykev
1776a29a99
Work-order #4 closed. First post-deploy snapshot (2026-07-17 14:00:53 UTC) re-graded with the fix. Before → after: - projection==0: 9/25 → 0/25 (the nine now refuse) - grade<->confidence: mismatch → 25/25 agree - edge_pct: {20,60,100,140} cluster → 7 continuous values, all-positive projections The lone remaining edge=100 is a REAL projection (Abreu hits, line 0.5, proj 1.0 over = 100% by (model-line)/line), not the old proj=0 degeneracy. Verified. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
85 lines
4.7 KiB
Markdown
85 lines
4.7 KiB
Markdown
# MLB Grade Pipeline Degradation — FIXED (2026-07-17)
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Source: phone-audit P1-7 (broken edge board) + P2-9 (B grades at 45% confidence).
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Diagnosed against LIVE `GET /api/snapshot/mlb` on 2026-07-17. Backend grading
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bug, fixed at the source in the generic grade path (`engine1` +
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`analyzeViaEngine1`), which grades EVERY sport.
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## Before (25 live MLB grades, degraded)
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- **projection == 0 for 9/25** — graded on a zero projection.
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- **edge_pct quantized to {20, 60, 100, 140}** — the 100s were the proj=0
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degeneracy `(line - 0)/line = 100%`.
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- **grade ↔ confidence mismatch** — 10/25 disagreed even at the 4-letter level
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(25/25 vs the stricter 11-step bands).
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## Root causes + fixes (commit `888d103`)
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1. **projection=0 bypassed the refusal gate.** `projectionFor` returned
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`l5_avg` even when 0 (finite → the `== null` gate passed it). FIX: a
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non-positive reference is not a projection — `projectionFor` skips it and
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falls through to the next POSITIVE reference (l5 → l20 → per_90 → xg); when
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none is positive it returns null and the read REFUSES (`insufficient_data`).
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The gate also gained an explicit `> 0` guard — the invariant is structural.
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2. **edge_pct.** Formula was already `(model - line)/line` (the intended
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semantics); the {100} cluster was purely the proj=0 degeneracy. With fix 1
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those refuse. Main-line edge now reuses the VALIDATED projection so edge and
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the persisted `projection` can't diverge.
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3. **confidence/letter split.** `engine1.GRADE_TO_CONFIDENCE` was hand-rolled
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and drifted a full sub-tier low (B → 0.55, which `grade_thresholds.json`
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calls B-). FIX: confidence is now DERIVED from each grade's band MIDPOINT in
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`grade_thresholds.json` — one source of truth. Applying the threshold table
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to any grade's displayed confidence resolves back to the same letter (proven
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for all 11 grades in `tests/unit/mlbGradeDegradation.test.js`).
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## Blast radius (commit `9fc4edf`) — work-order #6
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The degraded grades (projection=0 → `model_value = 0`) are already settled in
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the append-only `ledger_entries` and are NOT deleted. Functional marking:
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`getModelAggregate` now filters `.gt('model_value', 0)` on the settled AND
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pending queries — the rows stay in the ledger but leave the public model record
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(their hit/miss is noise, not skill). Post-fix no new such row can be written.
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**Exact count NOT queryable from the dev box** (`*.supabase.co` is unreachable
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here — curl 000; only `vyndr.app`/`api.vyndr.app` resolve; no `VYNDR_INTERNAL_KEY`
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locally). Proxy signal: 9/25 (36%) of the current live slate. For the precise
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figure, run in Supabase SQL:
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```sql
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SELECT count(*) FILTER (WHERE outcome IS NOT NULL) AS settled_degraded,
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count(*) AS total_degraded
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FROM ledger_entries
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WHERE user_id IS NULL AND model_value = 0;
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```
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## Other sports — work-order #5
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NBA/WNBA/soccer grade through the SAME `analyzeViaEngine1` → `engine1` path
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(`gradeSlateService` does not branch by sport; `mlbGrader.js` is dead code). So
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they SHARE the disease and are fixed by the same commit. They rarely grade in
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prod today (stats service offline off-season → refuse anyway). No separate fix.
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## Live validation — work-order #4
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The fix deploys immediately, but the SNAPSHOT only re-grades on the full cron
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(UTC hours 14,19,22,1,3). Run after the next 14:00 UTC snapshot post-deploy:
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```
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node scripts/validate-grade-fix.js
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```
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PASS criteria: projection==0 count → 0; edge_pct no longer contains 100 and is
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not the four-value cluster; grade↔confidence agreement 25/25. The before-state
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(this file's "Before") is the diff baseline; the script's output is the
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fingerprint.
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## AFTER — VALIDATED LIVE (2026-07-17 14:00:53 UTC regrade, fingerprint)
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Ran `scripts/validate-grade-fix.js` against the first post-deploy snapshot.
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| Signal | Before (03:00 UTC) | After (14:00 UTC) |
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|---|---|---|
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| projection == 0 | **9 / 25** | **0 / 25** ✅ |
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| grade ↔ confidence agree | 15 / 25 (4-letter); 0/25 vs 11-step | **25 / 25** ✅ |
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| edge_pct distinct values | 4 — {20, 60, 100, 140} | 7 — {20, 60, 70, 76, 78, 82, 100} ✅ |
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| projection distribution | contained 0 | all positive (min 0.09, no zeros) ✅ |
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The nine projection-0 grades vanished (those props now refuse). Grade and
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confidence agree on every row. Edges are continuous, not the degenerate cluster.
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The single remaining 100 is NOT the old bug: Wilyer Abreu · hits · line 0.5 ·
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**projection 1.0** · over → `(1.0 − 0.5)/0.5 = 100%`, a real model call of double
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a small line. The `(model − line)/line` metric inherently produces large % on
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0.5-step lines — the frontend `|edge| > 40` guard is the intended safety net for
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exactly that, and it stays. **All three bugs resolved; validated in production.**
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