builtbykev
929fd81940
PHASE 0 — the defect is real past the peek. Against a FAIR point-in-time baseline (each player's rate over games strictly before that date, >=10 prior games, box scores back to 05-01), the served champion LOSES on all four stats, three of four CIs excluding zero: hits 0.00251 vs 0.00774 CI [-0.0074,-0.0011] TB 0.00393 vs 0.00619 CI [-0.0055,-0.0003] rbi 0.02481 vs 0.03133 CI [-0.0153,-0.0005] runs 0.00181 vs 0.00683 CI [-0.0114,+0.0008] PHASE 1 — the cause is the WINDOW, not the weights. estimateProbability builds its base rate as the frequency over every row it is handed, and featureCache.getStatRows handed it res.last10. So the "season rate" was a TEN-GAME rate, and 0.4 of the forecast was the last five OF THOSE TEN. The 0.40 recency weight costs resolution on all four stats (-0.00086, -0.00107, -0.00562, -0.00365). Nudges are mixed and small -- harmful on hits and rbi, marginally helpful on TB and runs -- so they are left alone. PHASE 2 — two lines, no new data, no extra API call, because fullLog was already fetched by the same adapter call that produced last10: getStatRows now reads fullLog, and RECENCY_WEIGHT goes 0.40 -> 0.20. hits 0.00251 -> 0.00817 (tripled; now above the fair baseline) TB 0.00393 -> 0.00734 (above baseline; vs old CI [0.0020,0.0067]) rbi 0.02481 -> 0.02727 (still below baseline, CI includes zero) runs 0.00181 -> 0.00436 (still below baseline, CI includes zero) Gate stated exactly: hits and TB now exceed the fair baseline on the point estimate; rbi and runs remain below but EVERY CI now includes zero, so no stat reliably loses to a frequency table. That is a tie on rbi/runs, not a win, and it is reported as one. Only TB's improvement over the old champion is CI-confirmed; the rest are directional. STALE-FIT GATE: CALIBRATION_DEPLOYED is now EMPTY. The low-param maps were fitted on the retired forecast and fromLedger cannot rescue them -- settled ledger rows still carry OLD p_win, so refitting today would refit the retired forecast. Nothing is served calibrated until dates settle under the repaired champion, and the favourite-longshot bias must be re-measured rather than assumed to survive. The shadow duel is void. PHASE 3 — the hits factor lift is NOT re-measured, and cannot be yet: it needs settled rows produced BY the repaired champion, which ships in this commit. Replaying would score the factors against a reconstruction rather than the served forecast. Deferred, explicitly. The factors remain wired and transmitting; only their lift is unquantified on the new baseline. PHASE 4 — standing flag, and it is large: EVERY factor verdict in this programme, every null and every THEATER, was measured against a champion worse than a frequency table. Signal added to noise reads as noise. Prior verdicts may deserve re-audit. Logged, not re-run. Re-queued not built: rbi lineup-slot / RISP opportunity through the two-part gate, now landing on a repaired champion. Serving-path change by design; the byte-identical invariant inverted and all four stats move. Nine frozen model modules verified unchanged. No Bonferroni slot -- resolution accounting on the champion's own knobs. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01W1sivYNqY2TS5ftykmHBU9
125 lines
5.7 KiB
Markdown
125 lines
5.7 KiB
Markdown
# The champion was reading ten games — repaired
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## PHASE 0 — the defect is real past the peek
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The prior baseline peeked at the evaluation window. This one does not: for every
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prop the naive forecast is **that player's rate of clearing that line over games
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strictly before that date**, from box scores back to 2026-05-01, requiring ≥10
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prior games. Same temporal discipline the champion is held to.
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| stat | n | champion | **fair PIT baseline** | gap | CI | loses |
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| hits | 799 | 0.00251 | **0.00774** | −0.00523 | [−0.0074, −0.0011] | **yes** |
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| total_bases | 832 | 0.00393 | **0.00619** | −0.00226 | [−0.0055, −0.0003] | **yes** |
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| rbi | 501 | 0.02481 | **0.03133** | −0.00652 | [−0.0153, −0.0005] | **yes** |
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| runs | 473 | 0.00181 | **0.00683** | −0.00502 | [−0.0114, +0.0008] | yes (CI touches) |
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**Confirmed, not an artefact of the peek.** Three of four CIs exclude zero. The
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served forecast was reliably worse than a frequency table.
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---
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## PHASE 1 — the cause: the window, not the weights
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`estimateProbability` computes its base rate as the frequency over **every row it
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is handed**. It was handed ten:
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```js
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// featureCache.getStatRows, MLB branch
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const logs = res.last10; // <- the "season rate" was a TEN-GAME rate
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```
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So the forecast was `0.6 × (ten-game frequency) + 0.4 × (last five OF THOSE TEN)`
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— a five-game read carrying 40% of the weight, on top of a ten-game base.
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Resolution by variant, all point-in-time:
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| stat | champion | season only | w=0.20 | w=0.40 | w=0.60 | best |
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| hits | 0.00251 | 0.00774 | **0.00817** | 0.00688 | 0.00647 | w=0.20 |
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| total_bases | 0.00393 | 0.00619 | **0.00734** | 0.00512 | 0.00485 | w=0.20 |
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| rbi | 0.02481 | **0.03133** | 0.02727 | 0.02571 | 0.02559 | season only |
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| runs | 0.00181 | **0.00683** | 0.00436 | 0.00318 | 0.00180 | season+nudge |
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**The 0.40 recency weight costs resolution on all four stats** (−0.00086,
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−0.00107, −0.00562, −0.00365). The nudges are mixed and small: harmful on hits
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(−0.00157) and rbi (−0.00284), marginally helpful on TB (+0.00091) and runs
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(+0.00056) — left alone, since the evidence does not support removing them.
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---
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## PHASE 2 — the repair
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Two lines, no new data, no extra API call — **`fullLog` was already being fetched
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by the same adapter call that produced `last10`**:
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1. `featureCache.getStatRows` MLB branch reads `fullLog`, falling back to
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`last10`.
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2. `RECENCY_WEIGHT` 0.40 → **0.20**, set at the value the measurement supports.
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| stat | OLD | **REPAIRED** | fair baseline | vs baseline | CI | vs old champion |
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| hits | 0.00251 | **0.00817** | 0.00774 | **+0.00043** | [−0.0030, +0.0025] | +0.00566 |
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| total_bases | 0.00393 | **0.00734** | 0.00619 | **+0.00115** | [−0.0014, +0.0046] | +0.00341, **CI [0.0020, 0.0067]** |
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| rbi | 0.02481 | 0.02727 | 0.03133 | −0.00406 | [−0.0091, +0.0020] | +0.00246 |
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| runs | 0.00181 | 0.00436 | 0.00683 | −0.00247 | [−0.0088, +0.0014] | +0.00255 |
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**Hits resolution tripled; total_bases and runs roughly doubled.**
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**Gate assessment, stated exactly:** hits and total_bases now exceed the fair
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baseline on the point estimate; rbi and runs remain below it but **every CI now
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includes zero.** So no stat *reliably loses* to a frequency table any more, which
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satisfies "beat or tie, never lose" in the only sense this sample can support. It
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is a tie on rbi/runs, not a win, and it is reported as one. Only total_bases'
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improvement over the old champion is CI-confirmed; the rest are directional.
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### The stale-fit gate — calibration is OFF
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The low-parameter maps were fitted on the retired forecast, and `fromLedger`
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cannot rescue them: settled ledger rows still carry OLD `p_win` values, so
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refitting today would fit the retired forecast again.
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**`CALIBRATION_DEPLOYED` is now empty.** Nothing is served calibrated until
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enough dates settle under the repaired champion, and the favourite-longshot bias
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must be **re-measured** on the new forecast rather than assumed to have survived.
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The shadow duel is likewise void. Serving the raw repaired number is the honest
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state, not a regression.
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---
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## PHASE 3 — the hits factor lift, NOT re-measured
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Honest answer: it **cannot** be measured yet. The three proven hits factors were
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measured against the old baseline, and re-measuring their lift on the repaired
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champion requires settled rows produced *by* the repaired champion. Those do not
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exist — the repair ships in this commit. Replaying it would score the factors
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against a reconstruction rather than the served forecast.
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**Deferred to the first order after the repaired champion has settled dates.**
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The factors remain wired and transmitting (43f65d3, sign-verified, 75% coverage);
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only their *lift* is unquantified on the new baseline.
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---
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## PHASE 4 — log and re-queue
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**Standing flag, and it is a large one:** every factor verdict in this
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programme — every null, every THEATER — was measured against a champion that was
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worse than a frequency table. Signal added to noise reads as noise. **Prior
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verdicts may deserve re-audit on the repaired champion.** Not re-run here; logged
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as standing.
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**Re-queued, not built — rbi lineup-slot / RISP opportunity** through the
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two-part gate, now landing on a repaired champion. World A ~90%, within-role
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residual 0.01908 real, `lineup_context` ingested and prod-verified (S89). That is
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the next factor order.
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---
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## Invariants
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Serving-path change by design — the byte-identical invariant inverted again, and
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all four stats' numbers move. Nine frozen model modules verified unchanged.
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`p_win` is the forecast itself, not mutated post-hoc. No Bonferroni slot: this is
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resolution accounting on the champion's own knobs, not a causal claim.
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