builtbykev
0997334f8b
THE PROMOTION WAS NOT PERFORMED. Champion grade path byte-identical (diff empty
across intelligence/, gradeSlateService, snapshotService). Projection, p_win and
the CLV instrument untouched.
REVIEW ZERO IS A GATE AND THREE OF FOUR PREREQUISITES FAIL:
0.1 scores are ESTIMATED priors from the founding spec, not measured. The
premise's cited values are not in the code either — the module holds
nba:points .80 and mlb:total_bases .55; there is no NBA 0.72 and no WNBA
score at all.
0.2 VERSION-BOUNDARY TAG DID NOT LAND — config/modelEras.js has zero shading
references. It was deliberately not applied twice (nothing had been
promoted) and reported both times. The order's own rule says STOP.
0.3 NO ROLLBACK FLAG EXISTS — zero occurrences of SHADING_ENABLED /
EDGE_SHADING / shadingEnabled anywhere in src/.
0.4 takeable tags DID land (migration 034, 1246/1254 rows). PASS.
AND THE APPROVED DELTA DOES NOT MATCH THE MEASURED ONE. Approved: 43.6% of
grades re-letter, efficient markets tighten and soft hold. Measured on all 1250
live rows: 97.4% change (1217), 79.8% move UP, 17.6% down, resulting in 79.0%
A-family (MLB 93.4%) against the champion's 0.2%. And rows_actually_shaded = 0
of 1250 — 96.5% of markets are unscored (f=1) and the one scored market present
is the anchor (f=1.0 by construction). The entire re-letter comes from switching
to edge-vs-fixed-bar grading, NOT from efficiency shading, which is inert on
this board. That is an unapproved grading-basis change riding along, which the
order's own "no new scaling changes riding along" guardrail forbids.
Flipping would re-letter 97.4% of an append-only public record, move 79.8% of
grades UP and mint A's on 79% of the board, on a letter whose measured
correlation with outcomes is r ~ 0.005 — the exact scenario the permanent
founder ruling forbids.
SHIPPED — ORDER B (independent of the promotion, and a live falsehood):
edge_pct display retired from GradeResultCard (confidence strip, EDGE stat cell
now honest-absent, alt-ladder rung) and SoccerGradeResult. DeskShowcase kept
(already honest). Computation and the board's signed-edge sort fallback SURVIVE
— deleting them would re-break the sort fixed on 2026-07-29; a test asserts all
three survive and the sort still orders agrees -> disagrees -> absent.
Fixed two build-breakers the retirement caused (orphaned edgeColor import,
orphaned edge_pct destructure; edge_pct stays on the props contract). Two
pre-existing tests superseded rather than deleted: they asserted the edge figure
is sign-coloured, and now assert the stronger property that no edge percentage
renders at all.
Floor: 314 suites / 3908 tests green (9 new), web build exit 0.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01QJs13VsyiSKYQP6rj3NNmc
90 lines
5.3 KiB
Markdown
90 lines
5.3 KiB
Markdown
# SPEC — ORDER B: edge_pct DISPLAY RETIREMENT (shipped) + PROMOTION GATE (**NOT PASSED**)
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2026-07-31. The champion grade was **NOT flipped**. Projection, p_win, and the CLV instrument
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untouched. Push scoring untouched.
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---
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## PART 1 — THE PROMOTION GATE: **THREE OF FOUR PREREQUISITES FAIL. NO FLIP.**
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The order states Review Zero is a gate ("all must pass before flip") and that 0.2 failing means
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**STOP**. Checked honestly, against code, not memory:
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| gate | result |
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|---|---|
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| **0.1** scores measured or estimated? | **ESTIMATED priors, transcribed from the founding spec.** And the premise's cited values **are not in the code**: the module holds `nfl:passing_yards .85 · nba:points .80 · mlb:strikeouts .60 · mlb:total_bases .55 · nba:role_player .55`. There is **no NBA 0.72 and no WNBA 0.68** — no WNBA score exists at all. |
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| **0.2** version-boundary tag landed? | ❌ **NO.** `config/modelEras.js` contains **zero** references to shading. It was deliberately not applied (twice), because nothing had been promoted, and that was reported both times. **The order's own rule: STOP.** |
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| **0.3** rollback flag exists? | ❌ **NO.** Zero occurrences of `SHADING_ENABLED` / `EDGE_SHADING` / `shadingEnabled` anywhere in `src/`. There is no flag to revert with. |
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| **0.4** takeable tags landed? | ✅ **YES** — migration 034, 1,246 of 1,254 rows tagged, floor recorded per row. |
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### The approved delta does not match the measured delta
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The premise approves "re-letters **43.6%** of grades in the correct direction (efficient markets
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tighten, soft hold)." Measured on all 1,250 live ledger rows:
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| measure | approved | **actual** |
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|---|---|---|
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| grades changed | 43.6% | **97.4% (1,217 of 1,250)** |
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| direction | efficient tighten / soft hold | **79.8% move UP**, 17.6% down |
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| resulting A-family | — | **79.0% A** (MLB **93.4%**) vs champion 0.2% |
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| **rows actually shaded by efficiency** | — | **0 of 1,250** |
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**The entire re-letter comes from switching to edge-vs-fixed-bar grading — not from efficiency
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shading, which touches zero live rows** (96.5% of markets are unscored → f=1, and the one scored
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market present, `mlb:total_bases`, is the anchor where f=1.0 by construction). So the mechanism
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being promoted is **inert**, while the thing that would actually change the board is an
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unapproved grading-basis switch riding along — which the order's own "no new scaling changes
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riding along" guardrail forbids.
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### Why this is a refusal to flip, not a delay
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Promoting would re-letter **97.4%** of an append-only public record, moving **79.8% of grades UP**
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and minting A's on **79%** of the board — on a letter whose measured correlation with outcomes is
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**r ≈ 0.005**. That is the precise scenario CLAUDE.md's permanent founder ruling forbids: *"Minting
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A's without new information is a relabelled B sold as an A and it corrupts an append-only ledger."*
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No new information is present here — 0 rows are shaded.
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**To unblock:** land the version-boundary tag, add a rollback flag, replace the input (`p_win` vs
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`fair_prob` — a real price-aware edge) so the fixed bar is meaningful, and fit scores for markets
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we actually grade. Then re-measure and re-approve against the true delta.
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---
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## PART 2 — ORDER B: edge_pct DISPLAY RETIRED (**SHIPPED**)
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Independent of the promotion, and a live falsehood, so it shipped in full.
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**Retired (display only):**
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- `GradeResultCard` confidence strip — the `+X% edge` figure.
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- `GradeResultCard` stat row — `EDGE` is now honest-absent `—`.
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- `GradeResultCard` alt-ladder rung — the same price-free number; the rung's **line and grade
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(real model output) still render**.
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- `SoccerGradeResult` — the `· +X.X% edge` clause.
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**Deliberately KEPT:** `DeskShowcase` (already honest — nulls anything past the sane cap).
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**Computation and sort survive, by design.** Backend `edgePctFor`, web `computeEdge`, and the
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board's **signed-edge sort fallback** (`descNullsLast(a.edge, b.edge)`) are all intact — deleting
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them would re-break the grade-board sort fixed on 2026-07-29. A test asserts all three survive and
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that the sort still orders `agrees → disagrees → absent`.
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**Two build-breakers found and fixed:** retiring the display orphaned the `edgeColor` import in
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`GradeResultCard` and the `edge_pct` destructure in `SoccerGradeResult`. `edge_pct` stays on the
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props **contract** (callers still pass it, the backend still computes it) — only the destructure
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for display was dropped.
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**Two pre-existing tests were SUPERSEDED, not deleted** (`ds4Billboards`, `colorContract`): they
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asserted the edge figure is coloured by sign, which was correct while a figure was shown. They now
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assert the stronger property — **no edge percentage renders at all**. `edgeColor` itself is
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untouched and still enforced for its other consumers (`MarketBreadth`).
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---
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## VERIFY
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Champion grade path **byte-identical** (diff empty across `intelligence/`, `gradeSlateService`,
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`snapshotService`) — **no flip performed**. Projection, `p_win`, CLV instrument untouched.
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**314 suites / 3,908 tests green** (9 new), **web build exit 0**.
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## TAGS
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VERIFIED: gates 0.1–0.4; the 97.4%/79.8%-up/0-shaded delta; the display retirement + surviving
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computation/sort. CANNOT DETERMINE: none. **BLOCKED: the promotion — 0.2 (version tag) and 0.3
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(rollback flag) are unmet, and the measured delta does not match the approved one.**
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