builtbykev 3ba3dd28f3 Scoreboard every challenger; diagnose the 429 as odds-api, not PropLine
PROMOTE-THE-EARNED. Nothing was promoted, because nothing earned it -- not
because the bar was held high. Measured on the same bar that refuted hits-v1:
own rows only, direction-aligned, paired bootstrap, promote only on a CI
excluding zero.

  arch-v1        n=1741  delta 0.0000  CI[-0.0050,+0.0054]  inconclusive
  contact-v1     n=1055  delta +0.0008 CI[-0.0052,+0.0069]  inconclusive
  proj-v1.1      n=1664  delta -0.0301 CI[-0.0543,-0.0060]  reliably WORSE
  matchup/tb-v1/hits-v1  n=0  genuinely pending (rows dated 08-02+)

arch-v1 is the interesting one: it MOVED 76% of rows by 2.5 points on average
and resolution is identical to the champion to four decimals, on the moved
rows too. That is active movement carrying no information -- a finding, not a
pending verdict.

These are true prospective holdouts: arch-v1 and contact-v1 wrote p_win at
grade time into their own columns before the game. Nothing recomputed.

THE 429, read-only. The premise was that we re-pull the full picture every
slot and blow the quota. Measured: PropLine is at 5 calls of 3,000/day --
0.17%. One snapshot is ONE PropLine call per sport, all markets comma-joined.
There is no request-pattern problem, so a change-based pull cannot fix it and
no tier upgrade is needed.

The 429 is odds-api: 478/500 MONTHLY, blocked at 95%. oddsService falls
through silently when PropLine returns empty, and the backup's quota gate
throws the error -- so an empty slate is indistinguishable from an outage and
the message names the wrong provider. Flagged for its own order.

Could NOT verify PropLine movement endpoints: docs are auth-gated and the keys
are production-only. Not asserted either way. The movement-as-data argument
stands on its own merits and should be justified that way, not as a quota fix
it isn't.

Book-breadth invariant written down: we never discard books. All are kept and
shown (DISPLAY_BOOKS = MODEL + REFERENCE + DFS); DFS pick'em is excluded from
PRICING only, because a fixed-payout shaded number is not a market price.
Verified this is already what bookRoles.js does.

Champion byte-identical; every challenger stays wired.
4,159 tests green (332 suites); web build exit 0.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01W1sivYNqY2TS5ftykmHBU9
2026-08-02 22:07:43 -04:00
S
Description
No description provided
30 MiB
Languages
JavaScript 63.2%
TypeScript 16.7%
HTML 13.4%
Python 5.3%
CSS 0.7%
Other 0.6%