builtbykev
405180e791
Build the causally-correct defence atom: spray x positional OAA
...
Team-average defence failed the two-part gate for hits, and the reason was the
unit rather than the signal. A left-handed pull-ground hitter meets the first
baseman and the second baseman and almost nobody else, so a team total averages
in five fielders who will never touch his ball.
Both halves were already free on the host we pull from. Statcast publishes
spray x trajectory per hitter -- pull/straight/oppo crossed with ground/air,
608 hitters -- and the OAA feed already carries each fielder's position, so
per-position defence is a regrouping of data ingested last week rather than a
new source. Zero new sourcing, as the order expected.
Handedness is what joins them and getting it backwards would be invisible: pull
for a right-handed hitter is the left side, pull for a left-handed hitter is the
right side, so a model ignoring bats would send half the league's grounders to
the wrong infielders and still look like it was reading defence. A switch hitter
bats opposite the pitcher, which this does not resolve, so he is unreadable
rather than guessed.
Two properties the crude version could not express, both locked by test: two
teams with the SAME total defence read differently for a pull hitter, and a
ground-ball hitter and an air hitter read the same team in opposite directions.
Unmeasured zones are renormalised away rather than contributing a zero, which
would assert an exactly-average fielder standing there, and states
honestly what share of a hitter's contact we could actually read. Nothing
readable at all returns null, so the caller falls back to the base rate instead
of to an invented 1.0 that looks measured.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com >
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01W1sivYNqY2TS5ftykmHBU9
2026-08-04 19:53:07 -04:00
..
2026-06-08 18:35:13 -04:00
2026-06-11 03:48:07 -04:00
2026-03-21 14:21:34 -04:00
2026-06-10 13:24:11 -04:00
2026-07-10 21:34:26 -04:00
2026-07-10 21:34:26 -04:00
2026-06-10 19:41:37 -04:00
2026-07-20 22:38:32 -04:00
2026-07-16 17:01:48 -04:00
2026-07-20 22:38:32 -04:00
2026-07-12 23:41:13 -04:00
2026-07-20 11:31:48 -04:00
2026-07-20 01:10:23 -04:00
2026-07-19 22:27:58 -04:00
2026-07-13 03:48:58 -04:00
2026-08-02 19:04:08 -04:00
2026-07-27 00:45:01 -04:00
2026-07-29 04:09:34 -04:00
2026-07-11 14:28:18 -04:00
2026-07-11 14:28:18 -04:00
2026-07-27 00:45:01 -04:00
2026-07-18 13:55:39 -04:00
2026-07-12 13:42:18 -04:00
2026-03-21 14:21:34 -04:00
2026-06-08 18:35:13 -04:00
2026-08-04 17:51:15 -04:00
2026-07-21 00:30:16 -04:00
2026-07-21 21:38:51 -04:00
2026-07-20 12:27:47 -04:00
2026-07-20 13:37:52 -04:00
2026-07-20 13:58:47 -04:00
2026-08-02 21:49:30 -04:00
2026-06-08 18:35:13 -04:00
2026-07-31 00:57:57 -04:00
2026-07-13 16:58:22 -04:00
2026-07-13 16:58:22 -04:00
2026-07-13 16:58:22 -04:00
2026-07-18 01:52:37 -04:00
2026-08-02 03:29:23 -04:00
2026-07-20 03:50:07 -04:00
2026-07-19 18:54:51 -04:00
2026-08-01 00:50:54 -04:00
2026-07-22 21:05:16 -04:00
2026-07-22 22:42:55 -04:00
2026-06-13 21:30:57 -04:00
2026-06-13 21:30:57 -04:00
2026-06-08 18:35:13 -04:00
2026-06-08 18:35:13 -04:00
2026-08-03 02:34:02 -04:00
2026-03-21 12:45:15 -04:00
2026-07-31 06:04:19 -04:00
2026-07-31 06:18:12 -04:00
2026-06-18 20:15:38 -04:00
2026-06-18 20:15:38 -04:00
2026-07-18 01:42:16 -04:00
2026-07-19 02:43:30 -04:00
2026-07-20 13:17:34 -04:00
2026-07-12 19:25:32 -04:00
2026-07-13 00:07:06 -04:00
2026-07-31 00:57:57 -04:00
2026-07-27 06:04:00 -04:00
2026-08-01 01:55:43 -04:00
2026-08-01 01:55:43 -04:00
2026-07-31 00:39:13 -04:00
2026-07-10 20:17:49 -04:00
2026-06-08 18:35:13 -04:00
2026-06-08 18:35:13 -04:00
2026-07-20 17:05:04 -04:00
2026-07-13 11:44:15 -04:00
2026-07-21 21:38:51 -04:00
2026-07-13 18:44:57 -04:00
2026-07-13 18:12:31 -04:00
2026-07-14 00:21:59 -04:00
2026-07-13 13:18:59 -04:00
2026-07-13 18:12:31 -04:00
2026-07-11 00:47:01 -04:00
2026-08-04 19:30:18 -04:00
2026-06-08 18:35:13 -04:00
2026-07-13 18:44:57 -04:00
2026-08-01 02:40:46 -04:00
2026-06-10 19:41:37 -04:00
2026-06-10 14:50:13 -04:00
2026-06-08 18:35:13 -04:00
2026-07-31 07:53:44 -04:00
2026-07-16 11:26:00 -04:00
2026-07-13 23:27:19 -04:00
2026-07-13 23:33:26 -04:00
2026-07-20 03:25:01 -04:00
2026-06-10 19:41:37 -04:00
2026-06-10 03:37:07 -04:00
2026-08-01 01:55:43 -04:00
2026-07-22 21:05:16 -04:00
2026-07-13 14:36:28 -04:00
2026-06-15 18:21:32 -04:00
2026-06-08 18:35:13 -04:00
2026-07-13 13:18:59 -04:00
2026-06-08 18:35:13 -04:00
2026-07-29 04:43:21 -04:00
2026-06-08 18:35:13 -04:00
2026-06-12 11:16:58 -04:00
2026-07-17 03:15:50 -04:00
2026-06-10 22:24:40 -04:00
2026-06-08 18:35:13 -04:00
2026-08-01 01:24:55 -04:00
2026-06-10 20:45:05 -04:00
2026-07-11 20:08:24 -04:00
2026-03-21 11:41:18 -04:00
2026-06-18 20:15:38 -04:00
2026-07-11 20:08:24 -04:00
2026-07-17 16:08:18 -04:00
2026-08-02 21:49:30 -04:00
2026-03-21 14:21:34 -04:00
2026-06-08 18:35:13 -04:00
2026-06-13 12:37:08 -04:00
2026-08-04 16:07:13 -04:00
2026-07-12 00:45:29 -04:00
2026-07-12 00:45:29 -04:00
2026-07-29 02:47:47 -04:00
2026-07-13 14:59:44 -04:00
2026-08-02 01:11:05 -04:00
2026-07-11 14:31:35 -04:00
2026-03-21 14:21:34 -04:00
2026-06-08 18:35:13 -04:00
2026-06-11 16:21:18 -04:00
2026-07-17 03:06:12 -04:00
2026-06-19 01:45:36 -04:00
2026-06-18 23:56:26 -04:00
2026-07-13 03:48:58 -04:00
2026-07-11 00:59:17 -04:00
2026-06-19 15:45:07 -04:00
2026-06-19 10:20:55 -04:00
2026-06-19 02:42:13 -04:00
2026-06-18 15:38:06 -04:00
2026-08-02 21:49:30 -04:00
2026-07-11 14:29:22 -04:00
2026-07-13 23:33:26 -04:00
2026-07-13 23:27:19 -04:00
2026-06-15 18:21:32 -04:00
2026-06-10 03:37:07 -04:00
2026-03-22 05:11:42 -04:00
2026-06-08 18:35:13 -04:00
2026-08-01 00:50:54 -04:00
2026-07-13 23:33:26 -04:00
2026-06-08 18:35:13 -04:00
2026-06-12 02:41:51 -04:00
2026-06-14 22:29:01 -04:00
2026-06-12 02:41:51 -04:00
2026-06-19 10:20:55 -04:00
2026-06-08 18:35:13 -04:00
2026-07-20 12:27:47 -04:00
2026-08-01 04:05:43 -04:00
2026-07-11 14:34:45 -04:00
2026-07-20 11:31:48 -04:00
2026-07-10 17:00:29 -04:00
2026-07-13 14:59:44 -04:00
2026-06-11 16:21:18 -04:00
2026-07-21 01:20:29 -04:00
2026-07-21 01:06:17 -04:00
2026-07-21 01:06:17 -04:00
2026-06-12 02:06:22 -04:00
2026-06-19 15:45:07 -04:00
2026-03-21 12:45:15 -04:00
2026-07-13 14:36:28 -04:00
2026-06-19 11:25:14 -04:00
2026-06-10 09:28:30 -04:00
2026-06-13 12:37:08 -04:00
2026-07-11 14:28:18 -04:00
2026-07-11 14:28:18 -04:00
2026-06-08 18:35:13 -04:00
2026-03-22 05:11:42 -04:00
2026-03-22 05:11:42 -04:00
2026-07-10 17:00:29 -04:00
2026-07-10 22:24:47 -04:00
2026-07-13 16:02:16 -04:00
2026-08-03 18:43:32 -04:00
2026-07-21 23:08:11 -04:00
2026-07-21 01:57:33 -04:00
2026-07-17 01:07:28 -04:00
2026-06-18 20:15:38 -04:00
2026-07-20 22:38:32 -04:00
2026-07-20 22:38:32 -04:00
2026-06-19 01:45:36 -04:00
2026-06-18 23:56:26 -04:00
2026-06-18 20:15:38 -04:00
2026-06-08 18:35:13 -04:00
2026-06-08 18:35:13 -04:00
2026-07-22 21:52:41 -04:00
2026-07-27 06:04:00 -04:00
2026-06-08 18:35:13 -04:00
2026-06-18 23:56:26 -04:00
2026-06-19 02:42:13 -04:00
2026-08-02 19:04:08 -04:00
2026-07-23 03:59:36 -04:00
2026-07-28 18:59:12 -04:00
2026-07-11 14:24:41 -04:00
2026-06-14 22:29:01 -04:00
2026-07-31 23:37:23 -04:00
2026-06-08 18:35:13 -04:00
2026-07-11 19:38:37 -04:00
2026-07-15 18:07:14 -04:00
2026-06-12 11:16:58 -04:00
2026-07-20 17:05:04 -04:00
2026-06-13 10:57:49 -04:00
2026-07-15 18:07:14 -04:00
2026-08-01 01:55:43 -04:00
2026-07-19 02:09:11 -04:00
2026-06-08 18:35:13 -04:00
2026-06-10 03:12:20 -04:00
2026-08-04 15:13:39 -04:00
2026-06-10 01:22:55 -04:00
2026-08-01 02:06:25 -04:00
2026-06-11 21:22:59 -04:00
2026-07-20 02:00:40 -04:00
2026-06-08 18:35:13 -04:00
2026-06-12 17:58:55 -04:00
2026-07-16 21:27:47 -04:00
2026-07-13 16:02:16 -04:00
2026-07-12 19:25:32 -04:00
2026-07-11 14:24:41 -04:00
2026-03-21 10:58:58 -04:00
2026-06-08 18:35:13 -04:00
2026-07-11 20:08:24 -04:00
2026-06-08 18:35:13 -04:00
2026-06-10 20:45:05 -04:00
2026-06-18 11:12:24 -04:00
2026-06-18 15:38:06 -04:00
2026-06-18 20:15:38 -04:00
2026-07-19 00:19:23 -04:00
2026-07-31 07:29:24 -04:00
2026-07-20 05:41:41 -04:00
2026-06-08 18:35:13 -04:00
2026-06-08 18:35:13 -04:00
2026-06-08 18:35:13 -04:00
2026-06-08 18:35:13 -04:00
2026-06-08 18:35:13 -04:00
2026-06-08 18:35:13 -04:00
2026-03-21 11:41:18 -04:00
2026-06-08 18:35:13 -04:00
2026-08-04 15:13:39 -04:00
2026-07-11 14:28:18 -04:00
2026-07-10 22:24:47 -04:00
2026-06-18 20:15:38 -04:00
2026-08-01 23:34:16 -04:00
2026-07-11 19:32:17 -04:00
2026-07-20 19:52:00 -04:00
2026-07-17 15:26:49 -04:00
2026-06-19 13:55:39 -04:00
2026-07-17 15:26:49 -04:00
2026-06-10 14:50:13 -04:00
2026-06-10 20:45:05 -04:00
2026-06-10 14:50:13 -04:00
2026-06-16 14:37:07 -04:00
2026-06-10 14:50:13 -04:00
2026-06-11 18:15:25 -04:00
2026-06-19 14:25:05 -04:00
2026-07-15 18:07:14 -04:00
2026-07-13 16:58:22 -04:00
2026-06-08 18:35:13 -04:00
2026-08-04 19:53:07 -04:00
2026-06-12 15:45:19 -04:00
2026-07-17 01:42:03 -04:00
2026-08-03 16:27:11 -04:00
2026-06-12 11:16:58 -04:00
2026-06-08 18:35:13 -04:00
2026-06-18 11:12:24 -04:00
2026-07-11 00:39:18 -04:00
2026-06-12 11:16:58 -04:00
2026-07-31 18:42:44 -04:00
2026-08-02 18:19:17 -04:00
2026-06-08 18:35:13 -04:00
2026-07-11 14:34:45 -04:00
2026-08-02 14:17:51 -04:00
2026-07-31 00:19:13 -04:00
2026-06-11 10:06:49 -04:00
2026-06-12 11:16:58 -04:00
2026-06-10 19:41:37 -04:00
2026-06-11 16:21:18 -04:00
2026-07-13 00:31:35 -04:00
2026-06-19 15:45:07 -04:00
2026-06-08 18:35:13 -04:00
2026-07-19 20:31:15 -04:00
2026-08-03 22:20:30 -04:00
2026-07-17 15:26:49 -04:00
2026-06-18 21:34:29 -04:00
2026-06-10 13:24:11 -04:00
2026-07-13 13:58:01 -04:00
2026-07-11 14:24:41 -04:00
2026-07-29 22:05:30 -04:00
2026-06-08 18:35:13 -04:00
2026-06-10 14:50:13 -04:00
2026-03-21 12:45:15 -04:00
2026-07-19 02:43:30 -04:00
2026-07-17 15:26:49 -04:00
2026-07-10 20:17:49 -04:00
2026-07-29 04:09:34 -04:00
2026-07-16 16:19:30 -04:00
2026-07-27 06:04:00 -04:00
2026-07-31 05:31:56 -04:00
2026-07-31 05:31:56 -04:00
2026-07-10 20:17:49 -04:00
2026-07-31 04:51:42 -04:00
2026-07-31 05:31:56 -04:00
2026-07-21 01:43:13 -04:00
2026-06-11 16:21:18 -04:00
2026-06-08 18:35:13 -04:00
2026-06-08 18:35:13 -04:00
2026-06-10 14:50:13 -04:00