builtbykev
40c61fbb0b
Nothing built. No poller wired, no capture change, no env flipped.
PART 1 — GRADES ALREADY AUTO-SETTLE. snapshotScheduler resolves settleAllOutcomes
(:64) and settleAllLedgers (:67) and runs them FIRST at every snapshot slot before
grading (its own comment at :393, Session 61). The record is self-populating: 937
settled rows, growing daily (07-24 through 07-30: 20, 25, 44, 26, 98, 62, 91), and
/api/accuracy reads it live at 937 @ 58% (MLB 526 @62%, WNBA 411 @54%).
/api/grading/resolve is a separate unreferenced legacy path, not the settlement
path. Wiring an ESPN poller to it would create a SECOND settlement path racing the
working one and double-count an append-only ledger — so nothing was built.
The DNP/VOID requirement is already satisfied: outcome carries void and
unrecoverable as terminal states, and getModelAggregate excludes both from the
record denominator, so a DNP is never counted as a loss (105 void rows exist).
Idempotency is enforced too — settleLedger guards on .is('outcome', null) and
outcomeService dedupes on nameKey|stat|line|side|date.
THE REAL GAP is smaller and different: settlement covers MLB + WNBA only. NBA and
soccer grade but never settle because no free settled-result feed is wired. That
is a per-sport feed problem, not a missing poller.
PART 2 — clvCaptureReliable() is ONE LINE:
return process.env.CLV_CAPTURE_RELIABLE === '1';
It measures nothing. It fails because the operator has not set the flag, not
because the capture is unreliable. So there is no capture code to repair for the
guard to pass — flipping one env var publishes beat_close_pct immediately, which
makes this a judgement call and precisely the "make a number appear" move the
honesty guard forbids.
The guard itself works: beat_close_pct and clv_distribution publish only when the
flag AND settled>=20 AND clv_sample>0; with it off /record shows NOT PUBLISHED YET
and the computable 34/937 = 3.6% is never the publishing path (clvPanel returns
null and a test forbids the fallback).
CANNOT DETERMINE (Supabase MCP upstream-auth outage): the close-vs-locked
distribution, which is the direct test for the old silent-overwrite bug. The exact
query is in the report. A decision rule is stated BEFORE seeing the number so it
cannot be fitted to it: set the flag only if close_moved is a clear majority of
rows carrying a close AND coverage of settled rows is high enough that the
percentage describes the record rather than the captured subset. If either fails,
leave it off — a CLV near zero because close==locked is the fabrication to avoid
and it would look like success.
PART 3 — full outstanding board included in the report, covering model work
(A-flood grade fix on p_win vs fair_prob, the collapsed-output re-adjudication
list, calibration/time-series with no honest source, price-triplet MODEL leg),
surfaces (D1 mount, share cards, notifications, Offseason, /system, S3 media,
45 unwired glyphs, /record has no nav link) and infra (NBA/soccer never settle,
three credentials still flagged for rotation, migration drift 023-029).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01QJs13VsyiSKYQP6rj3NNmc