builtbykev
494c83cf76
in code PHASE 0 — getStatRows is the single base-rate path, so every branch is audited, plus the feature builders since l20_avg is the season reference projectionFor reads: getStatRows MLB -> estimator base fullLog CORRECT (929fd81) mlbGameLogFeatures l5/l10/l20 last10 = 10 DEFECTIVE espnStatsAdapter.parseGameLog slice(0,20) DEFECTIVE getStatRows NBA/WNBA ESPN branch inherits 20-cap DEFECTIVE via source getStatRows NBA/WNBA python branch getGameLogs(...,20) dormant (offline) pitcherEngine / skillProjection statcast profiles N/A pitcher props via getStatRows MLB fullLog CORRECT settleSource full log (S64) CORRECT THE PITCHER ANSWER IS GOOD NEWS: pitcher props run through the same getStatRows MLB branch, so929fd81repaired them too. There is no separate defective pitcher base-rate path. THE ONE HIDING IN PLAIN SIGHT: mlbGameLogFeatures carries the comment "l20 = all available (the season per-game reference projectionFor needs)" while building from last10 -- so l20_avg was a TEN-GAME AVERAGE WEARING A SEASON LABEL, feeding both the consistency pull inside the estimator and projectionFor, which decides refusals. It survived the previous repair because that fix touched only getStatRows. PHASE 1 — mlbGameLogFeatures now reads fullLog; espnStatsAdapter drops its slice(0,20) cap. ZERO new API calls on both: each widens data already fetched and then discarded, the same shape as the original repair. The python branch is left alone -- the service is offline in prod and fixing it would be speculative. Their before/after resolution is NOT measured, deliberately: the only way to measure today is to reconstruct the repaired forecast over old rows, which is the reconstruction-vs-served trap this order refuses. Code fix now, measurement at accrual. PHASE 2 — MODEL_VERSION bumped to engine1@2026-08-07-fullwindow, so every forward snapshot is self-identifying (retentionService already stamps it; no new plumbing). model/reAuditEligibility.js encodes the rule: isEligible accepts only the repaired marker, assess counts eligible DATES not rows, and ACCRUAL is frozen at calibration 10 / hits-lift 10 / verdict-reaudit 14 / rbi-gate 14. A test locks the invisible case -- a MIXED table of 330 rows with 30 repaired returns eligible_dates 3, not 330 rows of false confidence. Once both generations share a table a naive count would fit a map on a blend of two forecasters. PHASE 3 — the board, each consequence labelled: calibration WITHDRAWN (refits at 10 dates, never on reconstructions); factor verdicts SUSPECT (all measured against a champion worse than a frequency table, direction UNKNOWN, not pre-priced, 14 dates); hits factor lift UN-REMEASURABLE (10 dates, factors still wired and transmitting); rbi lineup-slot RE-QUEUED (14 dates). Pre-registered order: calibration, hits lift, verdict re-audit, rbi gate. Then STOP and accrue. Nothing further can be honestly measured until the board fills with rows the repaired champion produced. Serving-path changes by design for the MLB feature path and NBA/WNBA logs; eleven frozen model modules verified unchanged. p_win never mutated. No Bonferroni slot. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01W1sivYNqY2TS5ftykmHBU9