vyndr/tests/unit/projectionInstrument.test.js

/* ============================================================
   Session 70 — THE MEASUREMENT INSTRUMENT.

   Calibration needs p_win beside the outcome. Market-comparison needs p_win
   beside the close. Both need them ON THE SAME ROW. Before this, p_win lived
   only in a table that never settles and the close lived only in a table with
   no probability — so neither question was answerable.
   ============================================================ */

const ledger = require('../../src/services/ledgerService');

const GRADE = {
  player: 'Josh Bell', stat_type: 'hits', direction: 'over', grade: 'B',
  gradedAt: { line: 0.5, odds: -210, timestamp: '2026-07-21T03:00:00.000Z' },
  p_win: 0.757, fair_prob: 0.633, edge_pct: 12, confidence: 63,
  archetype_axes: { blend: [{ label: 'BOMBER', axis: 'POWER', tier: 'elite' }] },
};
const PROP = { player: 'Josh Bell', stat_type: 'hits', game_time: '2026-07-21T23:05:00Z', book: 'betmgm', over_odds: -210, under_odds: 170 };

/** rowsFromSnapshot is internal; exercise it through the public writer. */
async function rowFor(grade, prop = PROP) {
  let captured = null;
  const sb = { from: () => ({ upsert: async (rows) => { captured = rows; return { error: null }; } }) };
  await ledger.recordPipelineGrades('mlb', [grade], [prop], { sb, now: () => '2026-07-21T03:00:00.000Z' });
  return captured && captured[0];
}

describe('lock-time capture — the projection we ACTUALLY made', () => {
  it('writes p_win, the market at lock, and the archetype VECTOR onto the row', async () => {
    const r = await rowFor(GRADE);
    expect(r.p_win).toBe(0.757);
    expect(r.fair_prob_lock).toBe(0.633);
    expect(r.archetype_vector).toEqual(GRADE.archetype_axes);
    expect(r.projection_locked_at).toBe('2026-07-21T03:00:00.000Z');
  });

  it('lands them on the SAME record as the outcome — the join is the point', async () => {
    const r = await rowFor(GRADE);
    // One row carries identity + p_win + the settle target. Calibration and
    // market-comparison are then plain SQL, not a lossy in-memory join.
    for (const f of ['player_key', 'stat', 'line', 'side', 'game_date', 'p_win']) {
      expect(r[f]).toBeDefined();
    }
  });

  it('stores the VECTOR, not a label — a label cannot attribute anything', async () => {
    const withBlend = await rowFor({ ...GRADE, archetype_axes: undefined, archetype_blend: [{ archetype: 'BOMBER', weight: 1 }], archetype: 'BOMBER' });
    expect(withBlend.archetype_vector.blend).toHaveLength(1);
  });

  it('a grade with no archetype stores NULL, not an empty object', async () => {
    const r = await rowFor({ ...GRADE, archetype_axes: undefined, archetype_blend: undefined, archetype: undefined });
    expect(r.archetype_vector).toBeNull();
  });

  it('a grade with no p_win stores NULL, never 0', async () => {
    const r = await rowFor({ ...GRADE, p_win: undefined, fair_prob: undefined });
    expect(r.p_win).toBeNull();
    expect(r.fair_prob_lock).toBeNull();
  });

  it('is IMMUTABLE — the writer never overwrites an existing lock', async () => {
    // recordPipelineGrades upserts with ignoreDuplicates, so a re-run cannot
    // rewrite p_win. Re-deriving at settle would measure a projection we never
    // made.
    let opts = null;
    const sb = { from: () => ({ upsert: async (_r, o) => { opts = o; return { error: null }; } }) };
    await ledger.recordPipelineGrades('mlb', [GRADE], [PROP], { sb });
    expect(opts.ignoreDuplicates).toBe(true);
  });
});

describe('attachClosingProb — the market half', () => {
  const makeSb = ({ rows, caps }) => {
    const updates = [];
    return {
      updates,
      from: (t) => ({
        select: () => ({
          is: function () { return this; }, eq: function () { return this; },
          limit: async () => ({ data: t === 'ledger_entries' ? rows : caps, error: null }),
        }),
        update: (patch) => ({ eq: async (_c, id) => { updates.push({ id, patch }); return { error: null }; } }),
      }),
    };
  };
  const ROW = { id: 'r1', player_key: 'josh bell', stat: 'hits', side: 'over', game_date: '2026-07-20' };

  it('DE-VIGS the raw both-side close prices (the table stores no probability)', async () => {
    // closing_captures deliberately stores over_odds/under_odds, NOT a
    // probability. Selecting a `fair_prob` column from it returns nothing and
    // makes every row look closeless — that shipped once and marked rows
    // market-unavailable without ever reading a capture.
    const sb = makeSb({
      rows: [ROW],
      caps: [
        { player_key: 'josh bell', stat: 'hits', side: 'over', game_date: '2026-07-20', over_odds: -150, under_odds: 120, captured_at: '2026-07-20T20:00:00Z' },
        { player_key: 'josh bell', stat: 'hits', side: 'over', game_date: '2026-07-20', over_odds: -210, under_odds: 170, captured_at: '2026-07-20T22:50:00Z' },
      ],
    });
    const out = await ledger.attachClosingProb('mlb', { sb, beforeDate: '2026-07-21' });
    expect(out.updated).toBe(1);
    // The LATER capture is the true close, de-vigged from -210/+170.
    expect(sb.updates[0].patch.closing_prob).toBe(0.647);
  });

  it('IGNORES refused captures — a missed_reason is not a close', async () => {
    const sb = makeSb({
      rows: [ROW],
      caps: [{ player_key: 'josh bell', stat: 'hits', side: 'over', game_date: '2026-07-20', over_odds: -210, under_odds: 170, captured_at: 'x', missed_reason: 'one_sided_price' }],
    });
    const out = await ledger.attachClosingProb('mlb', { sb, beforeDate: '2026-07-21' });
    expect(out.updated).toBe(0);
    expect(sb.updates[0].patch.market_unavailable_reason).toBe('no_usable_close');
  });

  it('NEVER imputes a closing line — absent is marked, not filled', async () => {
    const sb = makeSb({ rows: [ROW], caps: [] });
    await ledger.attachClosingProb('mlb', { sb, beforeDate: '2026-07-21' });
    expect(sb.updates[0].patch.closing_prob).toBeUndefined();
    expect(sb.updates[0].patch.market_unavailable_reason).toBe('no_usable_close');
  });

  it('does NOT declare a future game closeless — a close can still arrive', async () => {
    // Premature absence is as dishonest as imputation, in the other direction.
    const sb = makeSb({ rows: [{ ...ROW, game_date: '2026-07-25' }], caps: [] });
    const out = await ledger.attachClosingProb('mlb', { sb, beforeDate: '2026-07-21' });
    expect(sb.updates).toHaveLength(0);
    expect(out.updated).toBe(0);
  });

  it('a one-sided capture is NOT a close (de-vig needs both sides)', async () => {
    const sb = makeSb({
      rows: [ROW],
      caps: [{ player_key: 'josh bell', stat: 'hits', side: 'over', game_date: '2026-07-20', over_odds: -210, under_odds: null, captured_at: 'x' }],
    });
    await ledger.attachClosingProb('mlb', { sb, beforeDate: '2026-07-21' });
    expect(sb.updates[0].patch.market_unavailable_reason).toBe('no_usable_close');
  });

  it('never asks closing_captures for a column it does not have', () => {
    const src = require('fs').readFileSync(require.resolve('../../src/services/ledgerService'), 'utf8');
    const fn = src.slice(src.indexOf('async function attachClosingProb'));
    expect(fn).toMatch(/from\('closing_captures'\)[\s\S]{0,200}over_odds, under_odds/);
    expect(fn).not.toMatch(/closing_captures'\)[\s\S]{0,200}fair_prob,/);
  });

  it('only considers rows that have no close yet (write-once)', () => {
    const src = require('fs').readFileSync(require.resolve('../../src/services/ledgerService'), 'utf8');
    const fn = src.slice(src.indexOf('async function attachClosingProb'));
    expect(fn).toMatch(/\.is\('closing_prob', null\)/);
  });
});

describe('what stays measurable when the market is absent', () => {
  it('calibration needs only p_win + outcome; market-comparison needs the close', () => {
    // Encoded as a contract check: the three fields are independent columns, so
    // a row missing the close still scores for calibration.
    const src = require('fs').readFileSync(require.resolve('../../src/services/ledgerService'), 'utf8');
    expect(src).toMatch(/market_unavailable_reason/);
    expect(src).toMatch(/p_win: numOrNull\(g\.p_win\)/);
  });
});

describe('scheduler wiring', () => {
  const src = require('fs').readFileSync(require.resolve('../../src/snapshotScheduler'), 'utf8');
  it('runs the close attach on every configured sport', () => {
    expect(src).toContain('attachClosingProb');
    expect(src).toMatch(/for \(const sp of cadence\.ALL_SPORTS\)/);
  });
});