builtbykev 55157b3288 Close-capture retry (lock-walled) + MLB opp_rank_stat derivation
PHASE 1 — CLOSE-CAPTURE RETRY, test-first. The closing capture gets a
retry the snapshot path deliberately does not: a snapshot re-runs at the
next slot, but a MISSED CLOSE IS PERMANENT, and the feed flaked once on a
dry induce. Three hard rules, each driven by a test written before the
logic:
  - BOUNDED attempts (default 3) with short backoff so every attempt fits
    inside the window. Never infinite.
  - HARD LOCK-WALL: inside lockWallMinutes of first pitch (or past it) it
    stops and records missed_close. A price captured AT or AFTER lock is
    NOT a close; storing one would fabricate the CLV baseline.
  - NO BOUND LOCK TIME -> refuse immediately, never burn retries on a prop
    whose close cannot be timed.
On exhaustion it records missed_close with NO price — never a stale,
mid-day or post-lock line.

PHASE 3 — MLB opp_rank_stat DERIVED, contract-locked. MLB previously had
no opponent metric at all (ESPN's MLB team endpoint carries none), so
engine1's +/-1.0 opponent factor never fired for the sport carrying most
of our volume. Derived from data we already ingest: statsapi team pitching
splits, all 30 teams in ONE free unauthenticated call.

THE SHARED CONTRACT is documented and TESTED, not assumed: 0-1 scale,
HIGH (>=0.70) = WEAK opponent, LOW (<=0.30) = TOUGH — identical to WNBA's
live semantics. Polarity is the highest-risk part: backwards polarity does
not fail loudly, it silently adjusts every MLB grade the wrong way. A test
asserts MLB polarity EQUALS WNBA polarity using engine1's own thresholds.

PROVEN AGAINST THE LIVE FEED:
  Colorado Rockies  BAA .286 -> opp_rank 0.983  (weak, fires weak_opponent)
  LA Dodgers        BAA .215 -> opp_rank 0.017  (tough, fires top_opponent)
  POLARITY HOLDS: true

HONEST NULLS, tested: thin league baseline, thin opponent sample, unmapped
stat, unknown opponent, or a missing field all return NULL with a reason —
we are FIXING a silent null, so it is never replaced by a confident guess
off three games. opponentStrengthHealth pages on an empty source AND on
derived-null-for-a-sport-we-expect-to-derive.

Suite 285/3435 green, build exit 0.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01SmNjJAwEnqHPtXbvSZR8kA
2026-07-20 12:27:47 -04:00
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