builtbykev
6b17f79367
decided everything The premise does not hold. prove-hit-factors.js has no date filter anywhere in it and pages the full table -- there was never a window to widen. Full clean history is 1,266 rows, not 2,715. platoon was not "proved" last session, it was explicitly held on 4.5%-median-contaminated season-to-date splits, and pitcher_contact_profile was demoted. The proven set going in was one factor, not three. STEP 1: no archetype slot reaches n>=500 on full history. Best is BOMBER at 408, and BOMBER is the most common archetype on the board. GHOST 173, BRUSH 64, DRIVER 43, CATALYST 16. These are confirmed genuinely short, not artifacts. STEP 2 is where the real finding is. park_hits initially PROVED at 619 rows across 45 games -- but those games only ever visited 14 distinct park values. A park effect is replicated across parks, and unmodelled park heterogeneity is confounded with the thing being estimated. Each factor is now clustered on the coarser of the game and the entity its treatment rides on. That flipped two verdicts and confirms Kev's causal-correctness thesis from a new direction: defense_by_direction has 442 hitter-team units of replication where crude team defense has 26. The correct atom is not just more accurate, it is the only one measurable at all. park_hits (14) and defense (26) can never be validated however long the ledger runs -- the same ceiling as park dimensions, reached independently. Also fixed a bar I got wrong last session: I transplanted the 500-row floor onto clusters, which refused a factor with 1,059 rows over 85 games while answering neither question. Two floors now -- rows>=500 for a stable estimate, clusters>=40 for a trustworthy interval. Not a lowered bar: park_hits and defense are still refused. PROVEN: defense_by_direction only, pooled, [-0.0054,-0.0012] at 99 tests. It stays POOLED-ONLY -- no per-archetype reasoning wired, nothing grandfathered. The card must not say "GHOST: defence matchup strong" because we have not earned that sentence. The predicted fingerprint did not appear either: BOMBER -0.0036 vs GHOST -0.0024, the opposite direction, both noise-dominated. Recorded so it is not claimed later. RESCALE: NOT READY. One proven factor worth -0.0031 Brier. Rescaling on that is relabelling. Counter and frozen clusters byte-identical. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01W1sivYNqY2TS5ftykmHBU9
2 lines
54 KiB
JavaScript
2 lines
54 KiB
JavaScript
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es{constructor(e,t){super(({request:a})=>{let s=e.getUrlsToPrecacheKeys();for(let r of function*(e,{directoryIndex:t="index.html",ignoreURLParametersMatching:a=[/^utm_/,/^fbclid$/],cleanURLs:s=!0,urlManipulation:r}={}){let i=new URL(e,location.href);i.hash="",yield i.href;let n=((e,t=[])=>{for(let a of[...e.searchParams.keys()])t.some(e=>e.test(a))&&e.searchParams.delete(a);return e})(i,a);if(yield n.href,t&&n.pathname.endsWith("/")){let e=new URL(n.href);e.pathname+=t,yield e.href}if(s){let e=new URL(n.href);e.pathname+=".html",yield e.href}if(r)for(let e of r({url:i}))yield e.href}(a.url,t)){let t=s.get(r);if(t)return{cacheKey:t,integrity:e.getIntegrityForPrecacheKey(t)}}},e.precacheStrategy)}},eb=class{_precacheController;constructor({precacheController:e}){this._precacheController=e}cacheKeyWillBeUsed=async({request:e,params:t})=>{let a=t?.cacheKey||this._precacheController.getPrecacheKeyForUrl(e.url);return a?new Request(a,{headers:e.headers}):e}},ev=class{_urlsToCacheKeys=new Map;_urlsToCacheModes=new Map;_cacheKeysToIntegrities=new Map;_concurrentPrecaching;_precacheStrategy;_routes;_defaultHandlerMap;_catchHandler;_requestRules;constructor({precacheEntries:e,precacheOptions:t,skipWaiting:a=!1,importScripts:s,navigationPreload:r=!1,cacheId:n,clientsClaim:o=!1,runtimeCaching:l,offlineAnalyticsConfig:h,disableDevLogs:u=!1,fallbacks:d,requestRules:f}={}){const{precacheStrategyOptions:p,precacheRouteOptions:m,precacheMiscOptions:w}=((e,t={})=>{let{cacheName:a,plugins:s=[],fetchOptions:r,matchOptions:i,fallbackToNetwork:n,directoryIndex:o,ignoreURLParametersMatching:l,cleanURLs:h,urlManipulation:u,cleanupOutdatedCaches:d,concurrency:f=10,navigateFallback:p,navigateFallbackAllowlist:m,navigateFallbackDenylist:w}=t??{};return{precacheStrategyOptions:{cacheName:c(a),plugins:[...s,new 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a&&(i[e]=a)})(e)})({prefix:n}),a?self.skipWaiting():self.addEventListener("message",e=>{e.data&&"SKIP_WAITING"===e.data.type&&self.skipWaiting()}),o&&self.addEventListener("activate",()=>self.clients.claim()),e&&e.length>0&&this.addToPrecacheList(e),w.cleanupOutdatedCaches&&(e=>{self.addEventListener("activate",t=>{t.waitUntil(g(c(e)).then(e=>{}))})})(p.cacheName),this.registerRoute(new e_(this,m)),w.navigateFallback&&this.registerRoute(new ei(this.createHandlerBoundToUrl(w.navigateFallback),{allowlist:w.navigateFallbackAllowlist,denylist:w.navigateFallbackDenylist})),void 0!==h&&("boolean"==typeof h?h&&ew({serwist:this}):ew({...h,serwist:this})),void 0!==l){if(void 0!==d){const e=new eg({fallbackUrls:d.entries,serwist:this});l.forEach(t=>{t.handler instanceof Z&&!t.handler.plugins.some(e=>"handlerDidError"in e)&&t.handler.plugins.push(e)})}for(const e of l)this.registerCapture(e.matcher,e.handler,e.method)}u&&(self.__WB_DISABLE_DEV_LOGS=!0)}get precacheStrategy(){return this._precacheStrategy}get routes(){return this._routes}addEventListeners(){self.addEventListener("install",this.handleInstall),self.addEventListener("activate",this.handleActivate),self.addEventListener("fetch",this.handleFetch),self.addEventListener("message",this.handleCache)}addToPrecacheList(e){let t=[];for(let a of e){"string"==typeof a?t.push(a):a&&!a.integrity&&void 0===a.revision&&t.push(a.url);let{cacheKey:e,url:s}=ec(a),r="string"!=typeof a&&a.revision?"reload":"default";if(this._urlsToCacheKeys.has(s)&&this._urlsToCacheKeys.get(s)!==e)throw new l("add-to-cache-list-conflicting-entries",{firstEntry:this._urlsToCacheKeys.get(s),secondEntry:e});if("string"!=typeof a&&a.integrity){if(this._cacheKeysToIntegrities.has(e)&&this._cacheKeysToIntegrities.get(e)!==a.integrity)throw new l("add-to-cache-list-conflicting-integrities",{url:s});this._cacheKeysToIntegrities.set(e,a.integrity)}this._urlsToCacheKeys.set(s,e),this._urlsToCacheModes.set(s,r)}t.length>0&&console.warn(`Serwist is precaching URLs without revision info: ${t.join(", ")}
|
|
This is generally NOT safe. Learn more at https://bit.ly/wb-precache`)}handleInstall(e){return this.registerRequestRules(e),y(e,async()=>{let t=new eo;this.precacheStrategy.plugins.push(t),await el(this._concurrentPrecaching,Array.from(this._urlsToCacheKeys.entries()),async([t,a])=>{let s=this._cacheKeysToIntegrities.get(a),r=this._urlsToCacheModes.get(t),i=new Request(t,{integrity:s,cache:r,credentials:"same-origin"});await Promise.all(this.precacheStrategy.handleAll({event:e,request:i,url:new URL(i.url),params:{cacheKey:a}}))});let{updatedURLs:a,notUpdatedURLs:s}=t;return{updatedURLs:a,notUpdatedURLs:s}})}async registerRequestRules(e){if(this._requestRules&&e?.addRoutes)try{await e.addRoutes(this._requestRules),this._requestRules=void 0}catch(e){throw e}}handleActivate(e){return y(e,async()=>{let e=await self.caches.open(this.precacheStrategy.cacheName),t=await e.keys(),a=new Set(this._urlsToCacheKeys.values()),s=[];for(let r of t)a.has(r.url)||(await e.delete(r),s.push(r.url));return{deletedCacheRequests:s}})}handleFetch(e){let{request:t}=e,a=this.handleRequest({request:t,event:e});a&&e.respondWith(a)}handleCache(e){if(e.data&&"CACHE_URLS"===e.data.type){let{payload:t}=e.data,a=Promise.all(t.urlsToCache.map(t=>{let a;return a="string"==typeof t?new Request(t):new Request(...t),this.handleRequest({request:a,event:e})}));e.waitUntil(a),e.ports?.[0]&&a.then(()=>e.ports[0].postMessage(!0))}}setDefaultHandler(e,t="GET"){this._defaultHandlerMap.set(t,ea(e))}setCatchHandler(e){this._catchHandler=ea(e)}registerCapture(e,t,a){let s=((e,t,a)=>{if("string"==typeof e){let s=new URL(e,location.href);return new es(({url:e})=>e.href===s.href,t,a)}if(e instanceof RegExp)return new en(e,t,a);if("function"==typeof e)return new es(e,t,a);if(e instanceof es)return e;throw new l("unsupported-route-type",{moduleName:"serwist",funcName:"parseRoute",paramName:"capture"})})(e,t,a);return 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