builtbykev
7ea0af2081
Top-of-file ground-truth block for orienting a fresh session. Records what shipped tonight (probability layer revived 32/32, value engine arc 1, grade-range work, backup durable on-box at 643/643, model_snapshots retention live with 100 rows incl 36 refusals, ESPN parser fix) WITH two honest qualifiers rather than a clean win: A still does not emit in production so the A-RATED marketing hold stands, and EV is overconfident (+62%/+61%/+56.9% captured, p_win clamps at 0.95) while hero v2 already ranks on it. OFF-BOX BACKUP recorded as NOT WORKING and deferred — never succeeded once, every dump lives only on the Hetzner volume. Documents the two real blockers fixed (missing base64 decode; container had rsync but no ssh binary) and the remaining one: the Storage Box offers an EMPTY auth-method list, which is an account refusing all auth rather than a wrong key. Explicitly marks as UNVERIFIED that no Chrome/UI diagnostic was run — no data on the SSH-support toggle, external reachability, project-vs-box key scope, or any Hetzner outage — and lists those as untested hypotheses in likelihood order rather than implying they were checked. The full scratch-Postgres restore proof is recorded as still OWED. Open items with status: settlement zero-pushes bug, ~28 props/day unsettled, permanent model-version contamination (with the hard-cutoff rule), A-grade unreachable, EV overconfidence, edge_pct broken scale, C4 CLV, consistency CV stopgap. Plus the three live credentials to rotate: Storage Box password, VYNDR_INTERNAL_KEY (pasted in a transcript), and the GitHub PAT still in .git/config. Next queued: backtest harness (needs ~2wk history, currently holds one night), settlement audit, opponent-strength sourcing (MLB solved via statsapi pitching splits; NBA/WNBA open) behind the source-adapter pattern, then the metrics engine gated on the harness. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01SmNjJAwEnqHPtXbvSZR8kA