builtbykev
971f641d12
Records model_snapshots as LIVE and verified capturing (100 rows over 2 cycles: MLB 14 graded/36 refused, WNBA 50 graded; features, grade_11, p_win, ev_pct on 100% of graded rows). First-ever refusal visibility: juiced_no_edge 18, rare_event_over_below_ line 13, insufficient_data 5 — the MLB gate refused 36 of 50 sides (72%), now measurable for the first time. Flags EV as OVERCONFIDENT and not fit to surface: first captured values include +62.1%/+61%/+56.9%, which real markets do not offer. Cause is the estimator clamping p_win at PROB_CEIL 0.95 off ~10 games. Hero v2 already ranks on ev_pct, so it will pick the MOST overconfident read — calibration must gate this before EV drives anything user-facing. Logs the two settlement-correctness findings Kev asked to track (zero pushes across 470 settled rows; ~28 props/day never settling) and the ledger model-version contamination, with the rule that any backtest off existing history must treat the 2026-07-19 fix boundary as a hard cutoff. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01SmNjJAwEnqHPtXbvSZR8kA