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builtbykev b85b351993 Grade-board sort: signed signal, takeable-gated p_win, missing sorts LAST 
Display ORDERING only. No grade, ledger row, lock_line, scoring, or edge_pct
scale/display change. Push scoring untouched.

Two defects removed from selectTopGrades (wrong at ANY scale, independent of
edge_pct's separate retirement):
  1. edge: Math.abs(numOr(g.edge, -Infinity)) — abs() on an already-
     direction-signed value ranked the model's strongest DISAGREEMENTS level
     with its strongest agreements (177 public ledger rows carry a negative
     edge; positive = the model AGREES with the graded side).
  2. Math.abs(-Infinity) === Infinity, so a row with NO edge sorted FIRST —
     absent data presented as the top pick (the Number(null) class).

New key: grade -> confidence -> takeable-gated p_win (nulls LAST) -> SIGNED
edge (nulls LAST) -> input order. Scales are never mixed in one comparator.
Takeable band = web valueState.isTakeable, asserted byte-equal to the hero's
config/valueEngine.isTakeable (-160..+200) incl. strict-null.

Alt-line ladder (analyzeViaEngine1:506) no longer sorts by edge_pct: ordered
highest-p_win-first derived analytically at zero added compute — P(stat >= k)
is monotone non-increasing in k, so p_win-desc is line-ASC for an over and
line-DESC for an under. base stays marked; no consumer depends on
alt_lines[0]; deskShowcaseService.rungsOf already re-sorted by line.

THREE PREMISE BREAKS found report-first, before code:
  - /api/props/top-graded 404s in prod (absent from src/) so the dashboard
    board renders receipts/empty — the edge sort orders nothing there today.
    The prior order's "97.3% of rows tie" was a LEDGER measurement wrongly
    extrapolated to that board. Fix is correct-in-itself and lands when the
    feed is restored.
  - p_win cannot be a client-side key for all tiers: snapshotGating strips it
    for unentitled tiers ("shipping p_win is shipping the model price").
    Verified live: prod /api/snapshot carries p_win on 0/8 MLB, 0/25 WNBA.
  - Ladder rungs carry no per-rung price, so the takeable gate is inapplicable.

Verified on real data, both sports, both paths: unentitled — WNBA (n=25)
ordering CHANGED, MLB (n=8) unchanged, signed edge non-increasing in every
(grade,confidence) tie group (20 pairs, 0 violations); entitled — 40 real
ledger rows with p_win+locked_odds, p_win-descending, untakeable chalk NOT
promoted (Trea Turner .757 @-275 does not beat Rhyne Howard .745 @-120)
(36 pairs, 0 violations).

Hero consistency, stated honestly: same signal + same gate, different
precedence BY CONTRACT (board = grade-tier-first "top GRADES"; hero =
p_win-first "top read"). Identical within the leading tier (verified); across
tiers the board may lead with an A the hero doesn't pick. Not a contradiction.

Floor: 310 suites / 3864 tests green, web build exit 0. Dashboard + Desk
visuals are auth/feed-gated -> tagged for the Chrome audit, no visual faked.

Held: edge_pct rescale/display retirement (Order B); building the missing
/api/props/top-graded selector; exposing p_win to unentitled tiers.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01QJs13VsyiSKYQP6rj3NNmc
2026-07-29 21:13:51 -04:00

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# VYNDR — PRODUCT COMPLETION MATRIX
Canonical board. Supersedes STATE.md's narrative. Re-derived from repo (`b0a51c8`),
prod (`api.vyndr.app` / `vyndr.app`, checked 2026-07-27), and the design bundle
(`specs/design-reference/*`). Every cell cites a file, a route, or a prod check.
**DONE = all five YES:** DESIGNED (spec exists) · BUILT (code exists) · WIRED (a user
can reach it) · LIVE (serving in prod now) · HONEST (real data, not fabricated/inflated/
placeholder). A built-but-unrouted component is **WIRED: NO** regardless of code quality.
> **HONESTY PASS applied 2026-07-27 (6bc18d8):** every KNOWN live fabrication removed/hidden
> — see the "HONESTY PASS" section at the end. HONEST cells for rows 19/20/24 updated (✓).
## SURFACE MATRIX — 16 of ~26 fully done (Book Comparison wired 2026-07-29)
| # | Surface | DESIGNED | BUILT | WIRED | LIVE | HONEST | DONE | Evidence / what's missing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Landing / hero | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES | ✅ | `Landing.dc.html`; `app/page.tsx`; nav logo; prod `/`→200; Hero/TopSignals/ClaimMeter/ModelRecord all fetch real + self-hide |
| 2 | Dashboard / Slate | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES | ✅ | `Mobile.dc.html`; `Slate.tsx`+`vyndr/GameCard`; Nav "Slate"; prod `/dashboard`→200; snapshot grades real (wnba 25/mlb 5 today) |
| 3 | Scan flow (S6/S7) | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES | ✅ | `Scanner States.dc.html`; `scan/page.tsx`+`ProcessingGrade`; Nav "Read"; prod 200; real grade, honest `NoMarketState` |
| 4 | Grade result card | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES | ✅ | `System.dc.html` reveal; `GradeResultCard.tsx` (3 importers); `/scan`; real grade. Sub-sections (alt ladder, books) gated/absent — see #17/#18 |
| 5 | Grade display / badge | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES | ✅ | `HANDOFF.md:41`; `GradeBadge.tsx`; dashboard/scan/many; prod grades B/C real, no fake A |
| 6 | Ledger | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES | ✅ | `Intelligence.dc.html` S4; `ledger/page.tsx`+`ClvBadge`; Nav "Ledger"; prod 200; n≥20 gate honored |
| 7 | Tier-record | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES* | ✅ | `HANDOFF.md:33`; `TierRecord.tsx` (6 routes); n≥20 gate. *A-tier "edge glow" is ranking-as-credibility, not proven ROI (honest-but-thin) |
| 8 | Pricing | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES | ✅ | `Mobile.dc.html`; `Pricing.tsx`+`ClaimMeter`+`DeskShowcase`; Nav/Footer; prod 200; Stripe real, mocks removed |
| 9 | Public profile `/u` | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES | ✅ | `System.dc.html` /u; `PublicProfile.tsx`; OPEN_ROUTE share link; prod `/api/profiles/test`→404 (privacy honest) |
| 10 | Player profile | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES | ✅ | `Mobile.dc.html` PLAYER; `player/[name]`; reachable via `playerHref` links; prod `/api/stats/player`→found:true (archetype/propDNA/season) |
| 11 | Team hub | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES* | ✅ | `Mobile.dc.html` TEAM HUB; `TeamHub.tsx`; `TeamLink` on cards; prod `/api/team/NYY`→26 roster. *MLB real; NBA/WNBA partial roster |
| 12 | Explore | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES | ✅ | `Intelligence.dc.html`; `ExploreHub.tsx`+`FuturesBoard`/`NewsWire`; Nav; prod 200; real leaders/futures, "TRACKED·NOT GRADED" label |
| 13 | WIRE / ticker | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES | ✅ | `System.dc.html` WIRE; `vyndr/Ticker.tsx`; root layout; prod `/api/ticker`→30 real items |
| 14 | Streaks / hot list | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES | ✅ | `System.dc.html`; landing panels + Explore; prod `/api/streaks/mlb`→240 (computed), self-hide honest |
| 15 | Live tracking | PARTIAL | YES | YES | YES | YES | ⚠️ | `liveTrackingService`+`StatStrip.LiveTracker`; Slate polls `/api/live`; prod hasLive:false now (valid empty). DESIGNED: no dedicated bundle artboard |
| 16 | Parlay lab | PARTIAL | YES | YES | YES | YES | ⚠️ | `System.dc.html` PARLAY BUILDER (not named "Lab"); `parlay/page.tsx`+`ParlayPanel`; `#parlay` drawer; prod `/api/parlay/grade`→real A- |
| 17 | Alt-line ladder | PARTIAL | YES | PARTIAL | YES | YES | ❌ | Champion `alt_lines` real (prod: 5 rungs w/ edge_pct) but **Desk-tier only** (`tierGating.js:55`); proj-v1 `proj_ladder` ledger-only. DESIGNED: only Offseason grouping, no prop alt-stack |
| 18 | **Book comparison (S2)** | YES | YES | **YES✓** | YES | YES | ✅ | ✓WIRED 2026-07-29: `BookComparisonPanel` (self-fetches `/api/books`) on the GradeResultCard; renders per-book lines (books differ), single-book honest state, crown OFF (`BOOK_CROWN_ENABLED=false`, no best claim). Push-to-book + movement strip deliberately HELD |
| 19 | Price triplet | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES✓ | ❌ | ✓HONESTY PASS: null model/EV now NO_MODEL (honest-absent), no false "poisoned" copy. Still ❌: EV layer doesn't *produce* model_odds/ev (separate build) |
| 20 | **Compare (H2H)** | PARTIAL | in-dev | NO | YES | YES✓ | ❌ | ✓HONESTY PASS: fabrication removed → honest in-development state, pulled from Nav+BottomTabBar. Real two-player build pending (awaiting real build) |
| 21 | Newsletter | YES | YES | YES | PARTIAL | YES | ❌ | `NewsletterCapture.tsx` on `/`,`/welcome`; subscribe validates live; send internal-only. LIVE: Listmonk env config `CANNOT DETERMINE` from prod |
| 22 | Slip reader | PARTIAL | YES | PARTIAL | YES | YES | ❌ | `slip/page.tsx`; prod 200; **0 nav links → orphan** (deep-link only). DESIGNED: `a1-s9` spec, not the design bundle |
| 23 | Article media / share (S3) | YES | PARTIAL | NO | PARTIAL | YES | ❌ | `Intelligence.dc.html` ARTICLE MEDIA; `ShareCard.tsx` **0 real importers = DEAD**; OG `opengraph-image.tsx` IS live. In-article archetype figures not built |
| 24 | Calibration / edge board | YES | YES | NO | NO | YES✓ | ❌ | ✓HONESTY PASS: placeholder-edge% `MobileEdgeBoard` REMOVED from the Slate (phones show real cards). Component kept as dead code until a real edge feed exists |
| 25 | System / Intelligence terminal | YES | YES | **NO** | PARTIAL | YES | ❌ | `System.dc.html`/`Intelligence.dc.html`; `/terminal`→redirect to `/dashboard`; `/intelligence` REAL but **orphan (0 nav links)**; `/system` no page (prod 404) |
| 26 | Offseason hub (S-2) | YES | PARTIAL | NO | NO | — | ❌ | `Offseason.dc.html` full spec; **no `/offseason` page** (prod 404); logic only inline in `FuturesBoard`/`NewsWire` on Explore |
Prod endpoints confirmed LIVE + real: `/api/snapshot/{mlb,wnba}`, `/api/accuracy` (n=763),
`/api/ledger/accuracy`, `/api/ticker`, `/api/books/mlb`, `/api/streaks`, `/api/hotlist`,
`/api/live`, `/api/schedule`, `/api/stats/{player,leaders}`, `/api/team`, `/api/parlay/grade`.
## MODEL MATRIX — champion serves; every challenger is ledger-only
| Component | EXISTS | PROVEN | PROMOTED (serving) | USED (a surface reads it) | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Champion (engine1) | YES | PARTIAL→**promising** | YES | YES | `analyzeViaEngine1.js`; `enriched`→`snapshot`/`grades`. SKEW AUDIT 2026-07-29: on takeable MLB overs (n=62) champion p_win→CLV **partial r=0.375, SIG p≈0.003**; SURVIVES the mechanical baseline (no-edge CLV +1.5pt n=20 vs high-edge +8.6pt n=37 → **+7.1pt marginal**). De-vig clean (same-book pairing); close well-defined (DK/MGM r=0.92). PROMISING, NOT confirmed (thin n; lock-staleness check BLOCKED; 1 sig result among many) |
| arch-v1 | YES | NO | NO | NO | `challengerProjection.js`; rides `withChallenger`→**ledger only** (`:693`). "measured, never served" (`ledgerService.js:251`) |
| contact-v1 | YES | NO | NO | NO | `contactChallenger.js`; ledger col `p_win_contact` only |
| proj-v1 / v1.1 | YES | **NO (tested 2026-07-29)** | NO | NO | `projectionChallenger.js` (MLB-batting only). PROOF ORDER verdict: **NOT PROVEN** on n=45 takeable MLB overs — edge-CLV partial-r (controlling price) = 0.245 (n.s.); ~half the raw signal is the shared −fair_prob_lock term (mechanical); and the CHAMPION out-predicts it (champ partial-CLV 0.380 sig, champ-edge→hit 0.25 vs proj 0.12). Ledger-only |
| Champion alt-ladder | YES | NO | YES | Desk-only | `analyzeViaEngine1.js:486`; real re-grades ±1 line; `gradeAdapter.js:100` maps to card **Desk-gated** |
| proj-v1 `proj_ladder` | YES | NO | NO | NO | `distribution.js:100`; ledger-only, reaches no card |
| Price gate / EV | YES | PARTIAL | PARTIAL | PARTIAL | fields on `enriched`; hero gates on `isTakeable`+`ev_pct` (`heroPropService.js:78`). **But prod grades show ev_pct/p_win/model_odds/value/takeable = NULL** — built, served-schema, not producing |
### Ladder question (Phase 2.6) — VERIFIED: proj-v1.1 DOES compute rungs above the line
`projection/distribution.js:100` `ladder()` computes `P(stat ≥ k)` for a fixed rung set
`k = 1..LADDER_MAX` (default 4), **independent of the listed line** — so for a line of 1.5
(tradedRung=2) it emits rungs 1 (below), 2 (at), **3 and 4 (ABOVE)**, each a real
negative-binomial survival prob (`projectionChallenger.js:183,200`). "Ladder-up **works**"
— sole cap is `LADDER_MAX=4`. **BUT `proj_ladder` is ledger-only and reaches no user
surface.** So "ladder up from the listed line to find value" is *computed and never wired*.
## HONEST-STATE SUMMARY
### 3.7 — What a PAYING USER sees right now that is not true
1. **`/compare` — fabricated grades, nav-linked + public.** Hardcoded Jokić A+ / Wembanyama A + fake "VYNDR VERDICT" (`compare/page.tsx:10-62`). No data behind it. **The single worst live lie.**
2. **FAQ — phantom processor.** "We use NexaPay" (`FAQ.tsx:28`); every legal/pricing page says Stripe. Also founder price inconsistency ($24.99 vs $19.99).
3. **FAQ + Features — Brier/CLV over-claim.** "Brier score and CLV… published / from day one · Public accuracy by tier" (`FAQ.tsx:498`, `Features.tsx:323`). No Brier surfaced anywhere; CLV held. `CANNOT DETERMINE` a live Brier surface — because none exists.
4. **Mobile edge board — placeholder edge%.** `MobileEdgeBoard.tsx:44` renders a miscalibrated edge feed, masking >40% to "—". The numbers ≤40% still come from a placeholder pipeline. Live on mobile Slate.
5. **Price triplet / EV markers advertised-and-absent.** Grade schema carries `ev_pct`/`p_win`/`model_odds`/`value`/`takeable`; all **NULL on live grades** — the "model price" leg and VALUE marker don't render though the design promises them.
Not inflated (verified honest): grades are B/C only with A/D/F below n≥20 → `pct:null` everywhere; `AccuracyBadge`/`ModelRecord`/`TierRecord`/ledger all honor the n≥20 gate and self-hide. Hit-rate (59%, n=763) shows **without ROI/CLV** (CLV frequently null) — thin, not false.
### 3.8 — The graveyard (built, no user can reach it)
1. **`BookComparison.tsx`** — 0 importers. Backend `/api/books` is live + honest; nothing renders it. (S2 headliner.)
2. **`ShareCard.tsx`** — 0 real importers (S3 share cards).
3. **`components/GameCard.tsx` (legacy)** — type-only import; superseded by `vyndr/GameCard`.
4. **proj-v1 `proj_ladder`** — the above-line probability ladder; computed, ledger-only, never served.
5. **arch-v1 + contact-v1** — challengers, ledger-only, never served ("measured, never served").
6. **`TerminalTemplates.tsx`** — all SAMPLE data; `/terminal` redirects → effectively unrouted.
7. **`DemoScan.tsx`** — defined, never rendered.
8. **`/intelligence`** — REAL signals feed, but 0 nav links (orphan; reachable only by typing the URL).
9. **`/soccer`, `/marketplace`** — REAL pages, 0 nav links (orphans).
10. **`/notifications`** — `RouteStub`, unreachable.
11. **Offseason hub** — full design spec, no page built (prod `/offseason`→404).
## FULLY DONE (all five YES) — 15
Landing · Dashboard/Slate · Scan flow · Grade result card · Grade badge · Ledger ·
Tier-record · Pricing · Public profile `/u` · Player profile · Team hub · Explore ·
WIRE/Ticker · Streaks/Hot list · Live tracking.
## NEAREST TO DONE (one column from YES) — the shortlist a single order could finish
| Surface | The one gap | Finish move |
|---|---|---|
| **Book comparison (S2)** | WIRED: NO | Route `BookComparison.tsx` onto the card from the live `/api/books` store (crown stays off — measured flat). *Backend already shipped.* |
| **Parlay lab** | DESIGNED: PARTIAL | Accept the System "PARLAY BUILDER" spec as the lab spec (functionally live) — a doc call, not a build. |
| **Compare (H2H)** | HONEST: NO | Replace the hardcoded SAMPLE with a real two-player fetch, or pull it from nav until real. |
| **Price triplet** | HONEST: PARTIAL | Make the price-aware EV layer actually produce `p_win`/`ev_pct`/`model_odds` on served grades (built, not firing). |
| **Newsletter** | LIVE: PARTIAL | Confirm/enable Listmonk env (config `CANNOT DETERMINE` from outside). |
| **Slip reader** | WIRED: PARTIAL | Add one nav/More-sheet link (page is live + honest). |
| **Calibration / edge board** | HONEST: NO | Fix the placeholder edge% feed (backend), or hide the board until real. |
Two-plus columns out (bigger builds): **Alt-line ladder** (design + wire the served
probability ladder), **System/Intelligence terminal** (wire the orphan `/intelligence`),
**Article media/S3** (build in-article figures; `ShareCard` dead), **Offseason hub**
(no page at all).
*Tags: all cells VERIFIED against repo/prod/bundle except — Newsletter LIVE (Listmonk env)
and a live Brier surface = CANNOT DETERMINE (none found). Nothing BLOCKED.*
---
# HONESTY PASS — applied 2026-07-27 (commit 6bc18d8, deployed)
Removed/hid every KNOWN live fabrication. REMOVE/HIDE only — no grade, snapshot,
scorer, pipeline, or real feature touched. Updated HONEST cells:
| Item | Was | Now |
|---|---|---|
| /compare (row 20) | HONEST: NO — hardcoded Jokić A+/Wembanyama A + fake VERDICT, nav-linked | Honest **in-development** state; removed from Nav + BottomTabBar. Real two-player build **pulled, awaiting real build**. |
| Pricing (founder copy) | $34.99 desk / struck $19.99 / FAQ $24.99 — wrong | Founder **Desk $44.99** (matches lib/checkout.js), **Analyst $14.99**; struck "regular" numbers removed; DeskShowcase $34.99→$44.99. First-100 counter is REAL (ClaimMeter→Stripe). No "first 50" desk claim (no such counter). |
| FAQ processor | "NexaPay" | **Stripe** (verified live: Next→Express→checkout.stripe.com). `nexapay.ts` + its webhook route were **PURGED 2026-07-27** (NexaPay Purge order) — cross-project contamination, never a real VYNDR path. Provider-side env/keys + the orphaned `user_profiles.nexapay_customer_id` column flagged for Kev. |
| FAQ + Features "Brier/CLV published from day one" | INFLATED (not surfaced) | Removed. Returns when Brier/CLV are actually surfaced. Backend Brier compute untouched. |
| Calibration / edge board (row 24) | HONEST: NO — MobileEdgeBoard placeholder edge% (masked >40%) | **Removed** from the Slate; phones show the real game cards. Component kept as dead code (hidden, not deleted) until a real edge feed exists. |
| Price triplet (row 19) | HONEST: PARTIAL — null model/EV rendered "MODEL READ WITHHELD · poisoned" (false quarantine) | New **NO_MODEL** honest-absent state: MODEL "—" / "NOT PRICED", no verdict. Fixes grade card + LiveHeroProp. EV layer still doesn't *produce* values (separate build). |
## KEPT ON THE BOARD (real work to finish — NOT cut)
- **Article media / S3 (row 23)** — real feature + free SEO/distribution. Finish, don't delete. Only the false "Brier/CLV" claim about it was corrected.
- **Newsletter / THE WIRE (row 21, 13)** — real. Capture live, honest.
## FUTURE MODEL INPUT (logged only — not built this order)
- **News / line-movement signal** — injuries, scratches, lineups, weather move props before books reprice. Wire later as a model input. This is **ADDITIVE** to the media surfaces, not a replacement for them.
## KNOWN HONESTY GAPS (not fixed this order — logged, not fabrication)
- **Hit rate 59% (n=763) shown without ROI/CLV** — thin, not false. ROI/CLV surfacing is a later build.
- **"0 pushes = mis-scoring" — RETIRED 2026-07-29 as a false alarm** (premise re-verified, report-only).
The displayed hit/miss denominators are NOT corrupted by a hidden push bug: the feed is still 100%
half-numbers (0 whole lines in 117,970 captured market lines / 6,050 snapshots / 1,141 ledger rows /
173 lock_lines), all 992 settled actuals are integers, and the smallest actual-vs-line gap in the
whole ledger is 0.5. Expected pushes = exactly 0. See the verdict block below.
- **CLV instrument REPAIRED 2026-07-28** (commit 6552281). Was: 59 usable closing_prob. Now: **406** (MLB 248, WNBA 158) — the collapse was `attachClosingProb`'s `.limit(50000)`/no-ORDER-BY read + write-once `market_unavailable`, NOT capture (95% per-prop coverage) or the join (0 key mismatches). **CLV finding, straight: MLB unders lag the close (mean −9.1 prob-pts, 74% lose); MLB overs +2.0; WNBA flat.** → the +4.57% MLB-C and over/under asymmetry are substantially stale-line artifacts. This UNBLOCKS the proof order (proj-v1.1), which gates promoting p_win/ev to served grades.
**Honest state after this order: "no KNOWN live fabrications" — not "provably none."** The audit was thorough (repo + prod), but absence of a claim of falsehood is not a proof of universal truth.
---
# proj-v1.1 TAKEABLE-EDGE PROOF — verdict 2026-07-29 (report-only, read-only)
**N-gate PASSED: overlap = 45** (settled ∩ proj-v1.1 ∩ MLB over ∩ CLV close ∩ fair_prob_lock ∩ takeable −160..+200). The CLV repair is what made n≥30 reachable. Edge basis = `proj_p_over_line − proj_book_implied` (de-vigged fair, VERIFIED not raw book).
**VERDICT: NOT PROVEN.** proj-v1.1's takeable-edge does NOT beat the champion or clearly beat the close on MLB overs.
- Phase 1 buckets (descriptive; only the neg bucket clears ≥15): 6%+ edge (n=11) shows hit 70% / fair-ROI +0.57 / CLV +12.95pts — but even negative-edge rows show +2.7pt CLV (whole over-side is elevated = the stale-high concern).
- Phase 2 partial correlation (the real test): raw r(edge,CLV)=0.455 → **partial r(edge,CLV | price)=0.245, n.s.** at n=45 (t≈1.64, p≈0.11). ~half the raw signal is the shared −fair_prob_lock term (mechanical). proj predicts the close itself only weakly (partial r(proj,close|lock)=0.281, n.s.).
- Phase 2.6 champion comparison (same 45 rows): **the CHAMPION out-predicts proj-v1.1** — champ-edge→hit r=0.250 vs proj 0.120; champ partial-CLV=0.380 (SIGNIFICANT, p≈0.01) vs proj 0.245 (n.s.). Positive-edge fair-ROI comparable (proj +0.39 n=19, champ +0.34 n=26).
- Shown, not judged: MLB unders (n=20) CLV −9.34pts, r(edge,CLV)=−0.03 (contaminated, zero signal); WNBA — proj-v1.1 does not run (MLB-batting only), N/A.
**Conditional dependency (moot):** the verdict was to be conditional on the under-capture audit clearing the over-side. It's moot — proj-v1.1 fails Phase 2.6 (loses to the champion) BEFORE the audit applies, so NOT PROVEN regardless. The stale-high concern is corroborated (whole-over-side baseline +CLV; half of proj's signal mechanical).
**Notable:** the one statistically-defensible edge signal here is the **CHAMPION's** p_win predicting CLV on takeable MLB overs (partial 0.380, p≈0.01) — NOT proj-v1.1. That champion signal is itself still audit-gated (if MLB overs are whole-side stale-high, even it is suspect).
**What accrues a re-test:** ~20-25 more settled takeable MLB-over rows (to test proj's residual ~0.245 partial against zero), AND proj-v1.1 must demonstrate it beats the champion — which it currently does not. Promotion stays HELD.
---
# OVER-SIDE SKEW AUDIT — verdict 2026-07-29 (report-only, read-only)
Gates the champion's over-CLV signal (partial r=0.375, p≈0.003, n=62 takeable MLB overs — 0.2 CONFIRMED).
**THE THREE NUMBERS (Phase 4), n at each:**
- Mechanical baseline CLV (champ-edge ≤ 0, "no edge"): **+1.51 pts** (n=20)
- Champion high-edge CLV (champ-edge ≥ 0.05): **+8.64 pts** (n=37)
- **DIFFERENCE = the real edge: +7.14 pts**
**VERDICT: SURVIVES BASELINE.** The marginal (+7.1) is ~5× the mechanical floor (+1.5) and the price-controlled partial correlation stays significant. The skew is essentially ONE-SIDED (unders lag −7.0 overall; overs carry only a small +1.5 floor, NOT the +7 a symmetric two-sided over-skew would show). De-vig is CLEAN (`analyzeViaEngine1.js:539` pairs over+under from the same book/fetch — no fresh/stale pairing). Close is well-defined (draftkings vs betmgm over-prob r=0.921, n=151).
**→ GREENLIGHTS building the takeable-edge grade ON THE CHAMPION (engine1 p_win), NOT proj-v1.1** (which lost the proof). This is the project's first edge signal to survive an adversarial audit.
**FLAGGED — promising, NOT confirmed:**
- Thin n (62 overs / 37 high-edge / 20 baseline).
- Phase 2 lock-staleness check is **BLOCKED**: multi-book lines AT LOCK are not retained (`bookprices` is Redis current-only), so we cannot fully rule out that part of the baseline is lock-time staleness. The de-vig being clean + the small baseline make a large hidden skew unlikely, but it's not excluded.
- Sharp (pinnacle) reference covers only **8** props (sharp-CLV +3.17pt, directional hint only).
- This is one significant result among many computed this session — do not overstate.
**What would strengthen it:** retain multi-book at lock (enables the sharp/consensus lock-staleness check), and accrue more settled takeable MLB-over rows. Held: no promotion, no served p_win/ev, no capture fix — diagnosis only.
**UPDATE 2026-07-29 (commit c7067c8): the lock-multi-book gap is now CLOSED.** New `lock_lines` table (migration 033, applied+tracked) persists each graded prop's per-book lines at the lock moment (`lockLineCapture` in `snapshotService`, fenced RLS-service-role-only, grade byte-identical proven). This unblocks the staleness audit for FUTURE rows — it does NOT retroactively fix the existing 62. Confirmation still needs weeks of accrued lock+close+outcome. Populates from the next snapshot tick.
---
# HERO RANKING FIX — 2026-07-29 (commit 41b86e3, deployed)
The landing/hero (matrix row 1) selection was silently broken: it ranked on `ev_pct`, which is NULL on served grades, and **`Number(null) === 0`** made every prop tie at EV 0 → the "top read" was the FIRST takeable A/B prop in cache order — **arbitrary, dressed as ranked** (prod served Kelsey Mitchell, the #6 read by p_win). FIXED: rank by the **champion's p_win** (the only promising edge signal) among A/B **takeable-priced** reads (`isTakeable` −160..+200, same band as the proof/audit); strict-null guard; takeable filter excludes chalk; **no backfill** → honest empty state when nothing qualifies. p_win is ranking-only (never exposed; the route strips it). Display-only — reads caches, writes to nothing. No proven-edge/+EV/best-bet claim, no CLV/ROI/edge number. This makes the champion's p_win a real (display) consumer for the first time. Fingerprint VERIFIED: hero is the max-p_win read across sports (WNBA A), not old code's first-in-order MLB pick (Schanuel −135); untakeable chalk excluded. Visual auth-gated → data fingerprint.
---
# PUSH-SCORING PREMISE VERIFY — verdict 2026-07-29 (report-only, read-only)
Tested the standing ruling "push scoring is correct — do not touch." That ruling rested on
"100% half-number lines → pushes structurally impossible," which was true for the data it was
made on. If whole-number lines had entered the feed since, 0 pushes across settled rows would be
a real mis-scoring bug the ruling was shielding. **The premise HOLDS — the ruling stands.**
**Phase 1 — feed distribution, 4 independent populations, per sport AND per market (never blended):**
| population | what it covers | rows with a line | whole-number lines |
|---|---|---|---|
| `closing_captures` | raw captured market lines, 5 books, `book`+`sharp`, Jul 20-29 continuous | **117,970** | **0** |
| `model_snapshots` | every graded prop **incl. grader refusals** (not survivorship-filtered) | 6,050 | **0** |
| `ledger_entries` (public) | the settled public record, 11 markets | 1,141 | **0** |
| `lock_lines` | TODAY's lock-time per-book lines (freshest feed, migration 033) | 173 | **0** |
Per-market: MLB hits / doubles / rbi / total_bases / stolen_bases / runs / strikeouts / home_runs /
walks / earned_runs / outs / hits_allowed and WNBA points / rebounds / assists / threes — **every
market's min AND max line ends in `.5`** (e.g. MLB strikeouts 2.5-8.5, WNBA points 5.5-26.5, MLB
outs 3.5-19.5). No whole-number market is hiding inside a blended fraction.
**Phase 2 — the push branch would fire.** `outcomeService.js:151` `if (a === l) return 'push'`,
reached **after** `Number()` + `Number.isFinite` guards on both operands — a sound numeric compare,
not the `Number(null) === 0` string-vs-number class that hit the hero. It is the **single scoring
chokepoint** (`ledgerService.js:31` imports `settleResult`; no parallel hit/miss derivation exists
in `src/`), it is **unit-tested live** (`outcomeService.test.js:38`, `nbaSettlement.test.js:104`),
and both `ledger_entries.outcome` and `outcomes.result` CHECK constraints **include `'push'`** — a
real push would score, write, and persist end-to-end.
**Phase 2.6 — the decisive number.** Across 992 settled rows carrying an actual: **0 exact ties, 0
fractional actuals, and the smallest actual-vs-line gap is 0.5** — the arithmetic minimum between an
integer result and a half-number line.
**VERDICT: RULING HOLDS.** Expected push rate is **exactly 0 (P = 0), not "low"** — 0/992 is
*forced*, not chance. The "implausible" flag mistook an arithmetic impossibility for a suspicious
absence; the row closes honestly. Stale n corrected: the flag said 470 settled, it is now **1,097**
(593 hit / 399 miss / 105 void / 44 unsettled-today). Nothing modified — no scoring, settlement,
re-settle, or backfill.
**No latent bug either.** Because the branch is correct and covered, a whole-number market entering
later (NFL/NHL are code-wired but out of season; whole-number strikeout props exist at some books)
would be scored as a push automatically. The residual is a **monitoring** gap, not a scoring gap:
nothing alerts on the first whole-number line to enter the feed. Logged, not built.
---
# EDGE_PCT SCALE DIAGNOSIS — 2026-07-29 (report-only, read-only). Fork REPORTED, not chosen.
**What it is (0.1).** `analyzeViaEngine1.js:265-270` — `edge_pct = ((projection − line) / line) × 100`,
signed by direction, where `projection = l5_avg ?? l20_avg ?? {stat}_per_90 ?? xg_per_90`.
**Independent of `p_win`** (so NOT tainted by the overconfidence that damns `ev_pct`) but it takes
**no price input at all**, so it cannot express a betting edge. **Arithmetically correct, MISLABELLED:**
honest as "% the projection differs from the line," **a lie at any scale as "EDGE."** Two independent
implementations — backend `edgePctFor` and `web/src/lib/gradeAdapter.js:25-31 computeEdge`; the grade
card renders the WEB one, so a backend-only fix would miss it.
**The cap (0.2).** `SANE_EDGE_MAX = 40` (`deskShowcaseService.js:31`: *"beyond this the (model-line)/line
value isn't a market edge"*), mirrored in `slateAdapter.js:613` and `MobileEdgeBoard.tsx:45`. A
self-declared plausibility bound from an earlier order, not a derived statistical one.
**Mechanism (0.3) = SMALL-DENOMINATOR EXPLOSION** — not units, not inversion, not a missing ×100.
`line` is the denominator and **86% of MLB rows (562/655) sit at line 0.5**. Max 620 = a ~3.6 projection
on a 0.5 line.
| population | n | >cap 40 | >100 | median | p95 | max | min |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| **MLB** | 655 | 65.8% (>50) | 13.6% | **60** | 180 | **620** | −86.7 |
| **WNBA** | 486 | 4.9% (>50) | **0%** | 12 | 49 | 77.8 | −51.7 |
| blended | 1,141 | **44.0% (502)** | 7.8% | — | — | 620 | — |
Per line (the proof): MLB 0.5 → 73.0% over cap, max 620 · MLB 1.5 → 43.8%, max 153 · WNBA 12.5 → 6.7%
· **WNBA 26.5 → max 1.9.** Matrix figures re-verified: **51.5% is stale → 44.0%; worst 620 is exact.**
**Shape: structurally broken for MLB, sane for WNBA** — and the scale is a *function of line size*, so
the metric is incomparable across markets **by construction**. No rescaling fixes that.
**Surfaces (Phase 2) — the "~13" count is NOT confirmed. Three surfaces RENDER it:**
| surface | live | access | role | user sees at 620 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| `GradeResultCard.tsx:182,216,325` | YES (3 importers) | **auth-gated `/scan`** → **TAGGED FOR CHROME AUDIT** | display | **"+620% edge", raw + GREEN** |
| `DeskShowcase.tsx:40` | YES | **PUBLIC** `/pricing` | display | **"—"** (already honest) |
| `SoccerGradeResult.tsx:229` | YES | orphan `/soccer` (0 nav links, public by URL) | display | raw uncapped `X.X% edge` |
| `MobileEdgeBoard.tsx:47` | **DEAD** (0 importers) | — | sort+display | "—" (pulled in honesty pass) |
| `PropRow:45`, `GradeCard:32`, `ledger/page:40` | live components | — | **type-only, never rendered** | nothing |
| `contentTemplateService.js:164` | public `/api/content` | API | string | uncapped — **no page fetches it** |
**🔴 IT DRIVES TWO LIVE SORTS (the fork's load-bearing answer).**
1. `slateAdapter.selectTopGrades:469-471` — `grade → confidence → |edge| desc` → **dashboard TOP GRADES
top-10** (`dashboard/page.tsx:419`). **97.3% of rows (1110/1141) sit in a (date,sport,grade,confidence)
tie group of ≥2** (biggest 56), so |edge| is operative for essentially the whole slate — the **de facto
ordering** of that leaderboard.
2. `analyzeViaEngine1.js:506` — the Desk **alt-line ladder** is sorted by `edge_pct` desc.
**Two scale-INDEPENDENT defects inside that sort** (`Math.abs(numOr(g.edge, -Infinity))`): **(i) abs()**
on an already-direction-signed value ranks the model's strongest *disagreements* equal to its strongest
agreements (**177 negative-edge rows**: 58 B / 118 C / 1 F, worst −86.7); **(ii)** `Math.abs(-Infinity)
= Infinity` → a **missing edge sorts FIRST**. The `Number(null)` fabrication class again, new costume.
**Phase 4 correction — "nothing renders `ev_pct`" is WRONG.** `PriceTriplet.tsx:60,67,76` renders
`${pct(ev)} EV`, live and wired (scan → `gradeAdapter:143`). It shows nothing only because `ev_pct` is
NULL on served grades → `valueState.js:121` falls to **NO_MODEL honest-absent**. The right metric already
has a live honest render site, **starved of data, not unwired** — and the card's "EDGE" row sits exactly
where a price-aware number belongs.
**THE FORK (reported, not chosen).**
- **FIX** — dishonest: no rescaling turns a price-free projection gap into an edge (renaming, not fixing);
it silently re-ranks the dashboard top-10 (the hero-class bug just fixed); needs BOTH implementations.
- **HIDE** — cheap: 3 render sites, each already has a null branch (no layout breaks), and DeskShowcase
already proves the honest "—" pattern in-product. Not load-bearing for layout anywhere.
- **RECOMMENDED: HIDE the number and re-point the sort at `p_win`** — the hero order established p_win is
on 100% of recent ledger rows and is the only signal that survived an adversarial audit. Repairing a key
that is a 0.5-line artifact is not worth it. End state: **p_win ranks · ev_pct displays · edge_pct retires.**
The abs()/null-first sort defects deserve their own small order either way.
*Nothing changed: no edge_pct, scale, surface, sort, grade, ledger, or accruing edge touched.*
---
# GRADE-BOARD SORT FIX — 2026-07-29 (spec `specs/grade-board-sort.md`, shipped)
Display ORDERING only. Fixes two defects that were wrong at ANY scale, independent of edge_pct's
separate retirement (Order B, still held).
**Defects removed.** `selectTopGrades` ranked on `Math.abs(numOr(g.edge, -Infinity))`:
`abs()` on an already-direction-signed value ranked the model's strongest **disagreements** level with
its agreements (177 public ledger rows carry a negative edge); and `Math.abs(-Infinity) === Infinity`
made a **missing** signal sort **FIRST** — absent data as the top pick. Now: `grade → confidence →
takeable-gated p_win (nulls LAST) → SIGNED edge (nulls LAST) → input order`, scales never mixed.
The alt-line ladder (`analyzeViaEngine1:506`) no longer sorts by `edge_pct`; it is ordered
highest-p_win-first via the monotonic line rule (line-ASC for an over, line-DESC for an under) at zero
added compute.
**Three premise breaks found report-first.** (1) **`/api/props/top-graded` 404s in prod** — the
dashboard board's feed does not exist, so that board renders receipts/empty and the sort orders nothing
there today; the prior order's "97.3% of rows tie → the edge key decides the board" was a ledger
measurement wrongly extrapolated to it. (2) **p_win is stripped for unentitled tiers by design**
(`snapshotGating`, Session 67 — "shipping p_win is shipping the model price"); verified live, prod
`/api/snapshot` carries p_win on **0/8 MLB and 0/25 WNBA** grades, so the browser path uses the signed
edge and only entitled callers rank on p_win. (3) **Ladder rungs carry no per-rung price**, so the
hero's takeable gate is inapplicable there.
**Verified on real data, both sports, both paths.** Unentitled: WNBA (n=25) ordering CHANGED, MLB (n=8)
unchanged; signed edge non-increasing within every (grade,confidence) tie group — 20 pairs, 0
violations. Entitled: 40 real ledger rows with p_win+locked_odds — p_win-descending, untakeable chalk
not promoted, 36 pairs, 0 violations.
**Hero consistency, honestly:** same signal + same gate, different precedence by contract (board =
grade-tier-first "top GRADES"; hero = p_win-first "top read"). They agree exactly **within** the
leading tier (verified); across tiers the board may lead with an A the hero doesn't pick. Not a
contradiction — do not "fix" it by making the board ignore grade.
**Floor:** 310 suites / 3864 tests green, web build exit 0. Dashboard + Desk visuals are auth/feed-gated
→ tagged for the Chrome audit, no visual faked. **Held:** edge_pct rescale/display retirement, building
the missing `/api/props/top-graded` selector, exposing p_win to unentitled tiers.
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