builtbykev bf8ecb45ad Track U-deg pt2 (edge_pct scale) + the dispersion classifier as open items
Not new work — logging so neither gets lost.

U-deg part 2: edge_pct is on a broken scale and it is the number users
actually see. Live: edge_pct 100 on a single-digit-edge prop; ledger-wide
311/604 rows (51.5%) exceed the frontend's sane cap of 40, 39 exceed 100,
worst 620. Mapped the consumers, and the split is the whole problem: 13
frontend files + deskShowcase/contentTemplate/parlayScan/tierGating read
the BROKEN edge_pct, and ledgerService:199 persists it to the
column of an append-only table right now. NOTHING on the frontend reads
ev_pct; only heroPropService does. Noted that S-b (rank board on EV) is
the real remedy and should be done as one piece with the scale fix, and
that EDGE_BOARD_SANE_MAX is damage control that nulls half the board.

Dispersion classifier: MIN_MEAN=4 is the honest stopgap; it leaves a
+/-1.0 dead for MLB low-count stats. The scale-free fix is variance/mean
vs the Poisson baseline of 1.0. Logged with its explicit validation bar —
backtest harness first (still does not exist), replay settled outcomes,
show no tier degradation, report before flipping, env-gate it.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01SmNjJAwEnqHPtXbvSZR8kA
2026-07-19 19:08:04 -04:00
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