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vyndr/specs/vyndr-roadmap.md
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builtbykev d296e40cb6 Session 58: Phase 1 — Truth Infrastructure (2327 tests) 
ledger_entries is live (migration 019 applied to prod, RLS + NULLS NOT
DISTINCT dedupe verified against the real database). Every grade now
persists, settles against the real result, and carries closing-line value.

- ledgerService: pipeline pre-grade upserts (public model record, user_id
  null, idempotent), closing capture on every snapshot (last write before
  game start = the close), settlement with SIGNED CLV (over = locked -
  closing; beat/faded/flat), 30d model aggregate with the hard n>=20 rule.
- Write paths: snapshotService -> ledger (priority path); Next /api/scan ->
  ledger for authenticated users only (anon never touches the public
  record). Refused reads write nothing and don't burn a scan.
- Honest refusal (work-order 1.5): no projection => insufficient_data,
  grade null, "INSUFFICIENT DATA - no read" UI. The web gradeAdapter no
  longer displays the line as the model projection (the audit's
  model==line / +0% edge degenerate); the card renders absent states.
  projectionFor is sport-aware (l5 -> l20 -> {stat}_per_90 -> xG).
- /ledger: MY READS | MODEL tabs; model header shows hit% + beat-close%
  only at n>=20, else RECORD BUILDING + live pending count. ModelRecord
  deferred-render strip on landing + player hero. CLV + outcome chips,
  revised_from_grade strikethrough (Phase 2.5 ready).
- SYNC (Task 5): thresholds vs SNAPSHOT_EXPECTED_INTERVAL (normal <1.5x,
  amber >=1.5x, STALE red >=3x) via /api/snapshot/summary.
- Phase 2.5 logged in specs/vyndr-roadmap.md (build after Phase 3).
- Data-semantics hardening: strict null-safe numeric parsing everywhere a
  market value is handled (Number(null)===0 would have fabricated lines).

Backend 2309 -> 2327 tests (201 suites), web build exit 0.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-10 21:34:26 -04:00

6.8 KiB
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VYNDR Master Roadmap — Generated 2026-07-10 (Session 56)

The foundation document. Derived from the Session-56 data audit (specs/propline-audit.md, verified against live MLB Stats / ESPN / Odds APIs). Every session after this references it. Update it as sessions ship.

Current coverage (verified 2026-07-10)

Sport Odds props Grading Features (l5/l20) Outcomes settled Status
MLB ✅ PropLine + odds-api ✅ ✅ real (statsapi) ✅ (S55, expanded S56) LIVE
WNBA ✅ odds-api/PropLine ✅ ⚠️ Python offline → thin ❌ PARTIAL
Soccer ✅ odds-api only (no PropLine) ⚠️ extractor only ⚠️ ❌ PARTIAL
NBA ⚠️ summer league only ✅ ⚠️ offline ❌ OFF-SEASON (Oct)
NFL ⚠️ preseason ⚠️ mapped, not e2e ❌ ❌ PRE-SEASON (Sep)
NHL ❌ off-season ⚠️ mapped ❌ ❌ DARK (Oct)

The core product is MLB. It is the only sport that is live end-to-end (odds → grade → real features → settled accuracy). Everything else is a build-out target.

Gap analysis (from the audit)

  1. Outcome settlement is MLB-only — WNBA/NBA/soccer grades never settle, so the accuracy record (the S55 trust engine) only reflects MLB. Highest-value gap. Needs the ESPN box-score settle path (espnStatsAdapter already parses the shape for season avgs).
  2. NBA/WNBA features depend on an offline Python nba_api service — l5/l20 are often empty; only season avgs survive (ESPN fallback). Needs an ESPN game-log feature path so intel populates without the Python service.
  3. Soccer has no PropLine source — odds-api backup only; no SPORT_KEYS entry. Soccer grading isn't wired into the snapshot pipeline end-to-end.
  4. NFL mapped but not graded end-to-end — markets normalize, but no feature/ outcome path. Wire before September.
  5. RBI silent-failure (rbis/rbi) — FIXED S56.
  6. Under-requesting MLB markets — FIXED S56 (6 → 12 markets).
  7. No pipeline alerting / retry / missed-cron — FIXED S56.
  8. No live calibration — the accuracy record exists but doesn't yet feed back into grade confidence (spec 2.3 from S55).
  9. batter_strikeouts (batter Ks) mapped but not feature/settle-wired.

Session plan (priority-ordered)

Session Focus Ships Scope
57 WNBA/NBA outcome settlement ESPN box-score settle path in outcomeService → accuracy for basketball; WNBA goes fully live M
58 ESPN game-log features l5/l10/l20 for NBA/WNBA without the Python service → real intel on basketball grade cards M
59 Soccer end-to-end soccer into the snapshot pipeline (odds-api source), feature extractor wired, ESPN settle L
60 Live calibration accuracy record feeds grade-confidence adjustment (under/over-confident tiers nudge); "Model health: Calibrated/Learning" indicator M
61 NFL pre-season prep NFL feature + settle path (ESPN NFL boxscore) so Week 1 (Sep) is live L
62 Prop breadth batter_strikeouts, triples, pitcher walks; NBA pra/turnovers requested; WNBA extra markets S
63 Accuracy depth per-archetype hit rates, per-stat hit rates, player-level record ("VYNDR on Judge: 12-5"); ledger UI M
64 NBA regular-season readiness verify NBA pipeline for the Oct tip-off; depth-chart/cascade live M

Scope key: S ≈ ½ session, M ≈ 1 session, L ≈ 1–2 sessions.

NOTE (Session 58): the numbered plan above predates the overhaul work order. The work order's phases (0 = kill the lies ✅ S57, 1 = truth infrastructure ✅ S58, 2 = slate UX, 3 = mobile, 2.5 below, 4 = scan/ parlay, 5 = records, 6 = landing/content) take sequencing priority; the table's items slot in where they don't conflict.

Phase 2.5 — Intraday line refresh + directional movement (LOGGED Session 58)

Authoritative scope from the Phase 1 GO prompt. Build after Phase 3 (mobile), before Phase 4. During slate hours (~noon–midnight ET):

  • Lightweight ODDS-ONLY refresh every 15–30 min (no full re-grade run). Recompute the signed delta per graded prop RELATIVE TO THE GRADED SIDE — direction is the signal, not magnitude alone.
  • Moved WITH the grade (market chasing our number): PropRow badge STEAM ▲ +N. Good for the record; entry edge compressed. No re-grade.
  • Moved AGAINST the grade ≥ 1.0 (or odds-equivalent): auto re-grade THAT PROP ONLY.
    • Grade holds → badge VALUE ▲ better entry (better number, same read).
    • Grade drops → update the grade with revised_from_grade set (column already exists in ledger_entries) + a visible revision marker (original grade struck through — the ledger UI already renders it). Revisions are ALWAYS public — never silently regrade, per Ledger ethos.
  • All displayed lines remain real book values from the refresh — the refresh CAPTURES market numbers, never computes them.
  • After ship: drop SNAPSHOT_EXPECTED_INTERVAL to the refresh cadence — the HeartbeatBar SYNC badge (normal <1.5x · amber ≥1.5x · STALE ≥3x) goes genuinely live with zero further UI changes.

Stat-type coverage target (fully built)

  • MLB (batters): hits, total_bases, home_runs, rbi, runs, doubles, triples, walks, stolen_bases, batter_strikeouts. (pitchers): strikeouts, earned_runs, hits_allowed, innings_pitched, outs, walks. (Bold-new this session: doubles, triples, outs, runs, walks requested + settleable.)
  • NBA/WNBA: points, rebounds, assists, threes, steals, blocks, turnovers, pra.
  • Soccer: goals, shots, shots_on_target, tackles, cards, corners, saves, passes, clean_sheet.
  • NFL: passing/rushing/receiving yards, receptions, pass/rush/rec TDs, anytime_td, interceptions, kicking_points.

Sport coverage target

  • MLB ✅ live now (settled accuracy).
  • WNBA → live after S57 (settlement) + S58 (features).
  • Soccer → live after S59.
  • NFL → ready for September (S61).
  • NBA → ready for October (S64).
  • NHL → ready for October (fast-follow once NBA path exists; shares ESPN pattern).

Operating invariants (do not regress)

  • Three stat_type whitelists stay in sync: routes/analyze.js, routes/scan.js, python/utils/validation.py.
  • A requested market MUST have a MARKET_MAP entry (else silent zero) AND, if MLB, a MLB_LOG_FIELD entry in BOTH featureCache and outcomeService (else no features / no settlement).
  • The accuracy pill stays HONEST — "LEARNING" below MIN_SAMPLE, never a faked %.
  • Pipeline alerts (ntfy) fire on success/failure/stale/overdue; the status probe (GET /api/internal/snapshot/status) exposes overdue.
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