builtbykev
d296e40cb6
ledger_entries is live (migration 019 applied to prod, RLS + NULLS NOT
DISTINCT dedupe verified against the real database). Every grade now
persists, settles against the real result, and carries closing-line value.
- ledgerService: pipeline pre-grade upserts (public model record, user_id
null, idempotent), closing capture on every snapshot (last write before
game start = the close), settlement with SIGNED CLV (over = locked -
closing; beat/faded/flat), 30d model aggregate with the hard n>=20 rule.
- Write paths: snapshotService -> ledger (priority path); Next /api/scan ->
ledger for authenticated users only (anon never touches the public
record). Refused reads write nothing and don't burn a scan.
- Honest refusal (work-order 1.5): no projection => insufficient_data,
grade null, "INSUFFICIENT DATA - no read" UI. The web gradeAdapter no
longer displays the line as the model projection (the audit's
model==line / +0% edge degenerate); the card renders absent states.
projectionFor is sport-aware (l5 -> l20 -> {stat}_per_90 -> xG).
- /ledger: MY READS | MODEL tabs; model header shows hit% + beat-close%
only at n>=20, else RECORD BUILDING + live pending count. ModelRecord
deferred-render strip on landing + player hero. CLV + outcome chips,
revised_from_grade strikethrough (Phase 2.5 ready).
- SYNC (Task 5): thresholds vs SNAPSHOT_EXPECTED_INTERVAL (normal <1.5x,
amber >=1.5x, STALE red >=3x) via /api/snapshot/summary.
- Phase 2.5 logged in specs/vyndr-roadmap.md (build after Phase 3).
- Data-semantics hardening: strict null-safe numeric parsing everywhere a
market value is handled (Number(null)===0 would have fabricated lines).
Backend 2309 -> 2327 tests (201 suites), web build exit 0.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
126 lines
6.8 KiB
Markdown
126 lines
6.8 KiB
Markdown
# VYNDR Master Roadmap — Generated 2026-07-10 (Session 56)
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The foundation document. Derived from the Session-56 data audit
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(`specs/propline-audit.md`, verified against live MLB Stats / ESPN / Odds APIs).
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Every session after this references it. Update it as sessions ship.
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---
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## Current coverage (verified 2026-07-10)
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| Sport | Odds props | Grading | Features (l5/l20) | Outcomes settled | Status |
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|-------|-----------|---------|-------------------|------------------|--------|
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| MLB | ✅ PropLine + odds-api | ✅ | ✅ real (statsapi) | ✅ (S55, expanded S56) | **LIVE** |
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| WNBA | ✅ odds-api/PropLine | ✅ | ⚠️ Python offline → thin | ❌ | **PARTIAL** |
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| Soccer | ✅ odds-api only (no PropLine) | ⚠️ extractor only | ⚠️ | ❌ | **PARTIAL** |
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| NBA | ⚠️ summer league only | ✅ | ⚠️ offline | ❌ | **OFF-SEASON (Oct)** |
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| NFL | ⚠️ preseason | ⚠️ mapped, not e2e | ❌ | ❌ | **PRE-SEASON (Sep)** |
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| NHL | ❌ off-season | ⚠️ mapped | ❌ | ❌ | **DARK (Oct)** |
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**The core product is MLB.** It is the only sport that is live end-to-end
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(odds → grade → real features → settled accuracy). Everything else is a
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build-out target.
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---
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## Gap analysis (from the audit)
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1. **Outcome settlement is MLB-only** — WNBA/NBA/soccer grades never settle, so
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the accuracy record (the S55 trust engine) only reflects MLB. **Highest-value
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gap.** Needs the ESPN box-score settle path (`espnStatsAdapter` already parses
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the shape for season avgs).
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2. **NBA/WNBA features depend on an offline Python nba_api service** — l5/l20 are
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often empty; only season avgs survive (ESPN fallback). Needs an ESPN game-log
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feature path so intel populates without the Python service.
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3. **Soccer has no PropLine source** — odds-api backup only; no `SPORT_KEYS` entry.
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Soccer grading isn't wired into the snapshot pipeline end-to-end.
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4. **NFL mapped but not graded end-to-end** — markets normalize, but no feature/
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outcome path. Wire before September.
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5. ~~RBI silent-failure (rbis/rbi)~~ — **FIXED S56.**
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6. ~~Under-requesting MLB markets~~ — **FIXED S56** (6 → 12 markets).
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7. ~~No pipeline alerting / retry / missed-cron~~ — **FIXED S56.**
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8. **No live calibration** — the accuracy record exists but doesn't yet feed back
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into grade confidence (spec 2.3 from S55).
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9. **`batter_strikeouts` (batter Ks)** mapped but not feature/settle-wired.
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---
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## Session plan (priority-ordered)
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| Session | Focus | Ships | Scope |
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|---------|-------|-------|-------|
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| 57 | **WNBA/NBA outcome settlement** | ESPN box-score settle path in outcomeService → accuracy for basketball; WNBA goes fully live | M |
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| 58 | **ESPN game-log features** | l5/l10/l20 for NBA/WNBA without the Python service → real intel on basketball grade cards | M |
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| 59 | **Soccer end-to-end** | soccer into the snapshot pipeline (odds-api source), feature extractor wired, ESPN settle | L |
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| 60 | **Live calibration** | accuracy record feeds grade-confidence adjustment (under/over-confident tiers nudge); "Model health: Calibrated/Learning" indicator | M |
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| 61 | **NFL pre-season prep** | NFL feature + settle path (ESPN NFL boxscore) so Week 1 (Sep) is live | L |
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| 62 | **Prop breadth** | `batter_strikeouts`, `triples`, pitcher `walks`; NBA `pra`/`turnovers` requested; WNBA extra markets | S |
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| 63 | **Accuracy depth** | per-archetype hit rates, per-stat hit rates, player-level record ("VYNDR on Judge: 12-5"); ledger UI | M |
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| 64 | **NBA regular-season readiness** | verify NBA pipeline for the Oct tip-off; depth-chart/cascade live | M |
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Scope key: S ≈ ½ session, M ≈ 1 session, L ≈ 1–2 sessions.
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> NOTE (Session 58): the numbered plan above predates the overhaul work
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> order. The work order's phases (0 = kill the lies ✅ S57, 1 = truth
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> infrastructure ✅ S58, 2 = slate UX, 3 = mobile, **2.5 below**, 4 = scan/
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> parlay, 5 = records, 6 = landing/content) take sequencing priority; the
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> table's items slot in where they don't conflict.
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## Phase 2.5 — Intraday line refresh + directional movement (LOGGED Session 58)
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Authoritative scope from the Phase 1 GO prompt. **Build after Phase 3
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(mobile), before Phase 4.** During slate hours (~noon–midnight ET):
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- Lightweight ODDS-ONLY refresh every 15–30 min (no full re-grade run).
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Recompute the signed delta per graded prop RELATIVE TO THE GRADED SIDE —
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direction is the signal, not magnitude alone.
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- **Moved WITH the grade** (market chasing our number): PropRow badge
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`STEAM ▲ +N`. Good for the record; entry edge compressed. No re-grade.
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- **Moved AGAINST the grade ≥ 1.0** (or odds-equivalent): auto re-grade THAT
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PROP ONLY.
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- Grade holds → badge `VALUE ▲ better entry` (better number, same read).
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- Grade drops → update the grade with `revised_from_grade` set (column
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already exists in `ledger_entries`) + a visible revision marker
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(original grade struck through — the ledger UI already renders it).
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Revisions are ALWAYS public — never silently regrade, per Ledger ethos.
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- All displayed lines remain real book values from the refresh — the
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refresh CAPTURES market numbers, never computes them.
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- After ship: drop `SNAPSHOT_EXPECTED_INTERVAL` to the refresh cadence —
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the HeartbeatBar SYNC badge (normal <1.5x · amber ≥1.5x · STALE ≥3x)
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goes genuinely live with zero further UI changes.
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---
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## Stat-type coverage target (fully built)
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- **MLB (batters):** hits, total_bases, home_runs, rbi, runs, doubles, triples,
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walks, stolen_bases, batter_strikeouts. **(pitchers):** strikeouts, earned_runs,
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hits_allowed, innings_pitched, outs, walks. *(Bold-new this session: doubles,
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triples, outs, runs, walks requested + settleable.)*
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- **NBA/WNBA:** points, rebounds, assists, threes, steals, blocks, turnovers, pra.
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- **Soccer:** goals, shots, shots_on_target, tackles, cards, corners, saves,
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passes, clean_sheet.
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- **NFL:** passing/rushing/receiving yards, receptions, pass/rush/rec TDs,
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anytime_td, interceptions, kicking_points.
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## Sport coverage target
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- **MLB** ✅ live now (settled accuracy).
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- **WNBA** → live after S57 (settlement) + S58 (features).
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- **Soccer** → live after S59.
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- **NFL** → ready for September (S61).
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- **NBA** → ready for October (S64).
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- **NHL** → ready for October (fast-follow once NBA path exists; shares ESPN pattern).
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---
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## Operating invariants (do not regress)
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- Three stat_type whitelists stay in sync: `routes/analyze.js`, `routes/scan.js`,
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`python/utils/validation.py`.
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- A requested market MUST have a `MARKET_MAP` entry (else silent zero) AND, if
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MLB, a `MLB_LOG_FIELD` entry in BOTH `featureCache` and `outcomeService` (else
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no features / no settlement).
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- The accuracy pill stays HONEST — "LEARNING" below MIN_SAMPLE, never a faked %.
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- Pipeline alerts (ntfy) fire on success/failure/stale/overdue; the status probe
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(`GET /api/internal/snapshot/status`) exposes `overdue`.
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