builtbykev
e70c02aca0
Report-only. Nothing built, wired, tagged, or removed.
PART 1 — the recalibration boundary was NOT written. The build order asks to tag
grades pre/post edge-shading at "the true promotion timestamp"; there is no such
timestamp, and writing the marker would insert a fabricated model transition
into an append-only public record — the exact corruption the order exists to
prevent. Three independent production proofs:
A. model_snapshots.code_sha — every sha that ran the pipeline in the last 5
days is a documented commit from this session (f3bf300 currently live,
then f310608, 9b5235c, b8ee216, afb56b1, 3592aba, 914a057), all stamped
model_version engine1@2026-07-20. No promotion commit exists.
B. Daily A-family share 07-24..07-30: 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.6, 0.0 —
flat at zero, no step change on any date. A 92.9% re-letter under shading
would have driven the board to ~79-93% A overnight.
C. efficiencyShading has zero production importers; HEAD d54eca0, clean tree.
Phase 2 delta: neither 92.9% nor 43.6% is attested in any measurement here, and
no re-lettering occurred at any scale, so partial-slate-vs-full-board cannot
explain a gap that does not exist. The only measured numbers, on all 1250 rows
(the full board): 97.4% would change, 79.8% up, 79.0% A-family, and 0 of 1250
rows actually shaded — the hypothetical re-letter would have come entirely from
an unapproved grading-basis switch, which is why the flip was refused.
Measurement integrity needs nothing new right now: model_version already
separates the S64 eras and takeable tags are complete (1245/1250). The boundary
becomes a hard prerequisite the day a promotion actually ships.
PART 2 — build triage for 14 incomplete surfaces, classified from code with each
one's real dependency and honest size, sequenced into five waves: pure wiring
(/intelligence, /slip, /parlay, /marketplace after a copy honesty pass);
design-only gaps (Live tracking, Slip reader, Newsletter artboards);
self-contained builds (/compare, ShareCard host, /notifications); model-gated
(price triplet MODEL leg and the calibration board both need p_win vs
fair_prob — building either on edge_pct would re-ship the retired 620% lie);
and sport-boundary/quota-gated (/soccer blocked on odds-api 0/500, /system,
Offseason).
Matrix corrections: Live tracking, Newsletter and Slip reader are built/live/
honest and marked incomplete only on the DESIGN column; /parlay is
drawer-reachable, not unreachable; /compare is already honest. No live surface
is showing fabricated data today.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01QJs13VsyiSKYQP6rj3NNmc
125 lines
8.5 KiB
Markdown
125 lines
8.5 KiB
Markdown
# VYNDR — INCOMPLETE-SURFACE BUILD TRIAGE + RECALIBRATION-BOUNDARY FINDING
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Report-only, 2026-07-31. Nothing built, wired, tagged, or removed.
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---
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# PART 1 — THE BOUNDARY TAG WAS **NOT** APPLIED. THE PROMOTION NEVER HAPPENED.
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The build order asks me to tag every grade `pre-shading (additive)` vs `post-shading
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(multiplicative)` at "the true promotion timestamp." **There is no such timestamp.** Writing that
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marker would insert a **fabricated model transition into an append-only public record** — which is
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the exact corruption the order exists to prevent. So the boundary was not written, and this is why,
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with production evidence rather than assertion.
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### Evidence A — the deployed code, from `model_snapshots.code_sha` (the pipeline stamps its own sha)
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Every sha that ran the pipeline in the last 5 days:
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| code_sha | model_version | window |
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|---|---|---|
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| `f3bf300` (C1 takeable-floor report) | engine1@2026-07-20 | 07-30 22:00 → **07-31 03:02 (current)** |
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| `f310608` (top-graded fingerprint docs) | engine1@2026-07-20 | 07-30 03:00 → 19:02 |
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| `9b5235c`, `b8ee216`, `afb56b1`, `3592aba`, `914a057` | engine1@2026-07-20 | 07-26 → 07-30 |
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**Every one is a documented commit from this session's history. There is no promotion commit, and
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`model_version` is a single unchanged value across all of them.**
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### Evidence B — the grade distribution shows **no step change, ever**
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A flip re-lettering 92.9% of grades under edge-shading would drive the board to ~79–93% A-family
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overnight (that is what the challenger measured it would do). Actual daily A-family share:
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| date | 07-24 | 07-25 | 07-26 | 07-27 | 07-28 | 07-29 | 07-30 |
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| n | 20 | 25 | 44 | 26 | 98 | 62 | 91 |
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| **% A-family** | **0.0** | **0.0** | **0.0** | **0.0** | **1.0** | **1.6** | **0.0** |
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**Flat at zero throughout.** No discontinuity on any date.
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### Evidence C — the challenger is imported by nothing
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`efficiencyShading` has **zero production importers**; it remains measured-never-served. HEAD is
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`d54eca0`, clean tree.
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### Phase 2 — the 92.9% vs 43.6% delta, explained with row counts
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**Neither figure is attested anywhere in this project's measurements, and no re-lettering occurred
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at any scale.** The only measured numbers, on **all 1,250** public ledger rows (full board, not a
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partial slate — so "partial-slate vs full-board" cannot explain a gap that does not exist):
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- grades that **would** change if promoted: **1,217 / 1,250 = 97.4%**
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- direction: **79.8% up**, 17.6% down → **79.0% A-family** vs the champion's 0.2%
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- **rows actually shaded by efficiency: 0 / 1,250** (96.5% of markets unscored → f=1; the one scored
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market present is the f=1 anchor)
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So the hypothetical re-letter was never 43.6% *or* 92.9%, and it would have been driven **entirely
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by switching the grading basis to edge-vs-fixed-bar — not by efficiency shading, which is inert on
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this board.** That unapproved basis change is precisely why the flip was refused.
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### What measurement integrity actually needs right now: **nothing new.**
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`model_version` already separates the S64 eras (`engine1@2026-07-20` / `pre-retention-unknown`), and
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**takeable tags are complete** (1,245/1,250, `takeable_floor` on all, one floor −160; the 5 untagged
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have no locked price = honest NULL). **The boundary becomes a hard prerequisite on the day a
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promotion actually ships** — and `config/modelEras.js` is its home.
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---
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# PART 2 — INCOMPLETE-SURFACE BUILD TRIAGE (all get built; nothing cut)
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Classified from the code, not the matrix.
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| # | Surface | Real state (cited) | Real dependency | Size |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 1 | **`/intelligence`** | **BUILT-NOT-WIRED.** `app/intelligence/page.tsx`, 160 lines, real data, **0 placeholders**, 0 nav links | none — it works | **small wire** (1 nav entry) |
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| 2 | **`/slip`** | **BUILT-NOT-WIRED.** `app/slip/page.tsx`, 526 lines, live, 0 nav links | none — OCR + `/api/slips/parse` live | **small wire** |
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| 3 | **`/parlay`** | **BUILT, drawer-only.** 340 lines; reachable via `#parlay`, 0 direct nav links | none | **small wire** (+ a design artboard) |
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| 4 | **`/marketplace`** | **BUILT-NOT-WIRED.** 121 lines, waitlist/interest capture (API access etc.), 0 nav links | ⚠️ **honesty check**: it advertises unbuilt capabilities — must read as *interest capture*, never as available | **small wire** after copy check |
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| 5 | **`/soccer`** | **BUILT-NOT-WIRED.** 414 lines, real fetch → `/api/odds/soccer/:league` | 🔴 **odds-api quota (0/500)** — soccer props blocked on QUOTA, not code. Also needs a soccer settled-result feed or it grades and never settles | **medium** (blocked upstream) |
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| 6 | **`/notifications`** | **DESIGNED-NOT-BUILT.** 14 lines, `RouteStub` ×2 | a notification store + delivery (email/push) + user prefs | **real build** |
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| 7 | **`/compare` (H2H)** | **BUILT-PLACEHOLDER→honest.** 27 lines, in-dev state (fabrication already removed) | two-player fetch over `/api/stats/player` (exists) | **medium** |
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| 8 | **`/system`** | **DESIGNED-NOT-BUILT.** No `app/system/` dir; prod **404**. `System.dc.html` exists | decide vs `/intelligence` overlap — may be the same surface designed twice | **real build** |
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| 9 | **Offseason hub** | **DESIGNED-NOT-BUILT.** No dir; prod **404**. Full `Offseason.dc.html` | futures/news feeds (partly live in `FuturesBoard`/`NewsWire`) | **real build** |
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| 10 | **Article media / `ShareCard`** | **BUILT-NOT-WIRED (dead).** 0 real importers | a share/OG surface to host it; `opengraph-image.tsx` already live | **medium** |
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| 11 | **Calibration / edge board** | **BUILT-NOT-WIRED (correctly hidden).** `MobileEdgeBoard`, 0 importers | 🔴 **a REAL edge feed** — i.e. `p_win` vs `fair_prob`. Cannot ship on `edge_pct` (price-free, line-scaled) | **medium**, gated on the model |
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| 12 | **Price triplet MODEL leg** | **BUILT, not PRODUCING.** `NO_MODEL` honest-absent renders correctly | 🔴 **the EV layer must emit `p_win`/`ev_pct`/`model_odds` on served grades** | **medium**, model work |
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| 13 | **Live tracking** | **BUILT + LIVE + HONEST.** Design is the only gap | a design artboard | **design task** |
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| 14 | **Newsletter** | **BUILT.** Send is internal-only | Listmonk env (`CANNOT DETERMINE` externally) + a design artboard | **small** (config + design) |
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### 2.6 — matrix corrections (accuracy, not cutting)
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- **Live tracking (#15)** is marked ❌ only because DESIGNED=NO. It is **built, wired, live and
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honest** — the gap is an artboard, not code. Same for **Newsletter (#21)** and **Slip reader
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(#22)** on the design column.
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- **`/parlay`** is not "unreachable" — it is drawer-reachable; the gap is a *direct* link.
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- **`/compare`** is already honest (the Jokić/Wembanyama fabrication is gone); only the real build remains.
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### PHASE 2 — ORDERED BUILD PLAN (dependency-sequenced)
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**Wave 1 — zero dependencies, pure wiring (hours):**
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1. `/intelligence` nav link · 2. `/slip` nav link · 3. `/parlay` direct link ·
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4. `/marketplace` link **after** an honesty pass on its copy.
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**Wave 2 — design-only gaps (no code):**
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5. Artboards for **Live tracking**, **Slip reader**, **Newsletter**; promote the System bundle's
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"PARLAY BUILDER" to a named Parlay-lab artboard. 6. Confirm Listmonk env → Newsletter LIVE.
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**Wave 3 — self-contained builds:**
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7. `/compare` real two-player fetch (deps already live) · 8. `ShareCard` host surface ·
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9. `/notifications` (needs a store + delivery — the largest of the three).
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**Wave 4 — gated on the MODEL, do not start before it:**
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10. **Price triplet MODEL leg** and **11. Calibration/edge board** both need a real price-aware edge
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(`p_win` vs `fair_prob`). Building either on `edge_pct` would re-ship the retired 620% lie.
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**Wave 5 — gated on the SPORT BOUNDARY + upstream quota:**
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12. **`/soccer`** — blocked on **odds-api quota (0/500)**, and needs a settled feed. 13. **`/system`**
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— first decide whether it duplicates `/intelligence`. 14. **Offseason hub**.
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### Placeholder honesty during the build (Truth Law)
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Only two live surfaces carry anything placeholder-ish, and neither currently displays fabricated
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data: **`/compare`** (honest in-dev copy) and **`/marketplace`** (advertises unbuilt capability —
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flagged for a copy pass so it reads as interest capture). `MobileEdgeBoard`'s placeholder edge feed is
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already **unrendered**. **No live surface is showing fabricated data today.**
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## TAGS
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VERIFIED: no promotion (three independent proofs); takeable tags complete; every surface classified
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from code. CANNOT DETERMINE: Newsletter LIVE (Listmonk env not visible externally). **BLOCKED: the
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boundary tag — there is no promotion to mark; `/soccer` — odds-api quota.**
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