ece2b9f5f90ed38280dcfd8215b202a4a4123abf
Two things shipped that stand regardless of sample. DEFENCE. Statcast Outs Above Average is free on the host we already pull six feeds from, so there was nothing to decide. 514 fielders, aggregated to team level -- the unit a batter's prop actually needs, the defence behind the pitcher he faces -- and persisted as 31 team rows. Verified in production. Cubs +56 best, Mariners -29 worst. Unknown is not zero, and it bites unusually hard here: an OAA of 0 is a REAL reading meaning exactly average, so coercing absence to 0 would assert that every unmeasured fielder is league-average, which is the commonest defensive profile there is. team_defense also carries as_of_date in its primary key from the first row -- statcast_aggregates was built upsert-in-place and that silently made every backtest leak the games it predicted, so point-in-time is available here before it is needed rather than after a wrong answer. A bug worth recording as a class: BASE already ends in /leaderboard, so the new feed built a doubled path and 404'd. Because a failing feed degrades to an empty index by design -- correct, so one broken source cannot fail the whole pull -- it surfaced as "fielding_oaa: 0 rows", which reads exactly like "Statcast has no fielding data". Graceful degradation makes a wiring bug look like an honest absence. CUMULATIVE CORRECTION. Bonferroni had been applied per session throughout: a run testing eight features corrected by eight. Across a programme's lifetime that is wrong in the dangerous direction, because every order gets a fresh generous alpha and the false-positive rate compounds quietly. Correcting by 8 when sixty have been tried is how a noise result eventually gets recorded as PROVEN with a p-value to point at. The denominator is now distinct hypotheses ever tested, persisted, and it moved 19 -> 38 within this session alone, alpha 0.0026 -> 0.0013. Re-tests deliberately do not inflate it: re-asking the same question on more data is not a new shot on goal, and counting it would punish the discipline of waiting for sample. THE MEASUREMENT. The differential the theory predicted is present: defence correlates with the counter's residual at +0.130 for GHOST, the contact and speed archetype, and -0.018 for BOMBER, the power archetype. A GHOST's hits depend on whether anyone can range to the ball; a BOMBER's barrels clear the defence entirely. So a flat BOMBER result is the theory working rather than the test failing. It is not a result. GHOST is n=104 against a 500 bar, with p=0.188 against a corrected alpha of 0.0013 -- three orders of magnitude short. Both are recorded as CANDIDATE with their measured lift, tagged contact-skill, so the re-run at full sample compares against a recorded baseline. Nothing proved, so nothing was recalibrated and nothing shipped. 4,228 tests green (336 suites); web build exit 0. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01W1sivYNqY2TS5ftykmHBU9
Description
No description provided
Languages
JavaScript
63.2%
TypeScript
16.7%
HTML
13.4%
Python
5.3%
CSS
0.7%
Other
0.6%