builtbykev
ef4ac60b81
DELTA MEASURED on live prod grades (live ordering unchanged): MLB 7/8 props move (87.5%), mean 2.5 places, TOP READ CHANGES (corey seager hits 1.5 under -> jake burger hits 0.5 over). WNBA 25/25 move, mean 4.1, max 12. This is a large re-ordering, not a tweak. Caveat recorded rather than buried: MLB had only 8 graded props at measurement time. The percentages are real; the sample is one small slate. Re-run before the flip -- it is one call. PER-SPORT DOCTRINE ENFORCED IN CODE. WNBA moves the most and must NOT adopt this: its p_win is anti-predictive, so ranking that board by p_win would sort it by a signal measured to point the WRONG WAY -- worse than the incumbent, not better. A comment would not have stopped a future flip from going global, so FORECAST_RANKED_SPORTS = Set(['mlb']) gates the forecast_rank stamp, with tests asserting no sport inherits MLB's result. A sport joins only by passing its own holdout. EDGE IS NOW DIAGNOSTIC-ONLY IN DISPLAY. MobileEdgeBoard.EdgeCell rendered green (--g-a) for positive edge and red (--miss) for negative. Two things were wrong: green/red IS a quality claim on a quantity that does not predict, and ROW-GRAMMAR reserves red for settled-negative ONLY -- a negative diagnostic is not a settled loss. Now neutral mono with a diagnostic tooltip; header reads "MKT GAP · DIAGNOSTIC". The number is still shown -- no display went blank. DeskShowcase neutralised likewise. PINNACLE LOGGED, NOT ENSHRINED. Per the order, "market-not-sharp" is PENDING-RECOVERY rather than a confirmed permanent limitation. The single question for PropLine is in BLOCKERS.md with its evidence, and MASTER-PLAN now carries the pending status instead of the permanent claim. Live sorts remain byte-identical: selectTopGrades, flattenToEdgeBoard and topGradedService all still call the incumbent. Gates: 4,041 tests / 323 suites green; next build exit 0. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01QJs13VsyiSKYQP6rj3NNmc
154 lines
6.3 KiB
Markdown
154 lines
6.3 KiB
Markdown
# RANK ON p_win — CHALLENGER DELTA + EDGE RETIREMENT
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**Date:** 2026-08-01 · **Live ordering byte-identical** · challenger measured on
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live prod grades · edge retired from decisions and from display quality-signalling.
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**Gates:** 4,039 tests / 323 suites green · `next build` exit 0 · delta recorded ·
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live sorts untouched.
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---
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## WHY (the measurement that dictates this)
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| instrument | corr with outcome, n=200 settled MLB |
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|---|---:|
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| **`p_win`** | **+0.26** |
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| `p_win − fair_prob` (v1 single-book ruler) | −0.010 |
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| `p_win − fair_prob` (v2 consensus ruler) | −0.022 |
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**Subtracting the market destroys the signal, under both rulers.** A quantity
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that does not predict must not rank, gate, or decide.
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---
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## THE CHALLENGER — `rankByForecast`
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**Order:** takeable-gated `p_win` → grade tier → confidence → stable input order.
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**No edge term anywhere** (a test flips edge from −99 to +99 and asserts the
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order does not move).
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**`p_win` leads and the letter follows — deliberately.** The grade letter measured
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**r ≈ 0.005** against outcomes and is **inverted** (B 52.4% < C 56.9%), while
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`p_win` measures **+0.26**. Leading with the letter would sort the board by the
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weaker signal and use the stronger one only to break ties.
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The takeable gate is unchanged and mandatory: raw `p_win` crowns −300 chalk.
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### One thing worth stating precisely
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**Isotonic calibration is a MONOTONE transform, so ranking on raw `p_win` and on
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calibrated `p_win` produce the SAME ORDER.** Calibration matters when `p_win` is
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*displayed* or *thresholded* — it cannot change a ranking. The order asked to
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"rank on calibrated p_win"; for ranking specifically, that is a no-op relative to
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raw. Recorded in the code so nobody re-derives it.
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---
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## THE DELTA (live prod grades, nothing flipped)
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`GET /api/internal/ranking-delta` · `live_ordering_unchanged: true`
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| | MLB | WNBA |
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|---|---:|---:|
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| graded props | 8 | 25 |
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| `p_win` coverage | 100% | 100% |
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| **props that move** | **7/8 (87.5%)** | **25/25 (100%)** |
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| mean \|move\| | 2.5 places | 4.1 places |
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| max move | 5 | 12 |
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| top-10 overlap | 80% | 80% |
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| **top read changes** | **YES** | **YES** |
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MLB #1: `corey seager | hits 1.5 under` → `jake burger | hits 0.5 over`
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(Seager falls 1 → 6).
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**This is a large re-ordering, not a tweak.** Nearly every row moves and the
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headline read changes.
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**Caveat, stated because it matters:** MLB's slate had only **8 graded props** at
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measurement time. The percentages are real but the sample is a single small
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slate — re-run the endpoint on a full slate before the flip. It is one call.
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---
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## PER-SPORT DOCTRINE — ENFORCED IN CODE, NOT IN A COMMENT
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**WNBA moves the most (100% of rows, mean 4.1 places) and must NOT adopt this.**
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WNBA's `p_win` is **anti-predictive** on its own data — it abstains. Ranking that
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board by `p_win` would sort it by a signal measured to point the *wrong way*:
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worse than the incumbent, not better.
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A comment would not have stopped a future flip from applying this globally, so:
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```js
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const FORECAST_RANKED_SPORTS = Object.freeze(new Set(['mlb']));
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```
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`ranksOnForecast(sport)` gates the `forecast_rank` stamp, and tests assert **no
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sport inherits MLB's result** — a sport joins only by passing its **own** holdout
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(honest calibration AND surviving resolution).
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**The WNBA number above is informational only.** It is in the report to show what
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the guard is preventing.
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---
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## WHAT CHANGED, WHAT DID NOT
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### Changed now (not rankings, so not gated on the flip)
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- **`altLineScanner.compareToBookImplied`** no longer returns
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`value_detected: edge > 0`. **Edge is still computed and returned** — losing the
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record would be worse than mis-using it — but the verdict is `null` with
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`value_basis: 'retired:edge_does_not_predict'`.
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- **`scanAltLines`** no longer filters to `edge > 0` nor calls the survivor
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`optimal_line`. The whole ladder returns, ranked, labelled
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`price_gap_diagnostic_unvalidated`. **The module has zero callers** (verified) —
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unwired like `mlbGrader.js`; left in place and made honest rather than deleted.
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- **`MobileEdgeBoard.EdgeCell`** no longer renders green for positive edge and red
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for negative. Two things were wrong with that: green/red **is** a quality claim
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on a quantity that does not predict, and **ROW-GRAMMAR reserves red for
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settled-negative only** (miss/dead/stale/faded) — a negative diagnostic is not a
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settled loss. Now neutral mono with a diagnostic tooltip; the column header
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reads **`MKT GAP · DIAGNOSTIC`**. **The number is still shown** — no display went
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blank.
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- **`DeskShowcase`** edge colour neutralised for the same reason.
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### An honest asymmetry I did not paper over
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**Ranking props against each other must not use edge. Choosing between RUNGS of
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the same prop is inherently price-relative** — ranking rungs by model probability
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alone would always pick the lowest line, because P(over 0.5) > P(over 2.5) by
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construction. So the gap stays the rung key in `scanAltLines`, **explicitly
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labelled unvalidated**, rather than being replaced by something that would look
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principled and be degenerate.
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### NOT changed (challenger-first)
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- **`rankGrades`** — the incumbent (grade-first, edge as 4th key) is untouched,
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and tested as untouched.
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- **Every live sort** still calls the incumbent. `selectTopGrades`,
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`flattenToEdgeBoard`, `topGradedService` — all byte-identical.
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- **`forecast_rank`** is stamped additively on MLB snapshot grades, **before**
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`stripModelPrice`, so every tier would receive the correct order without the
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paid values (the `topGradedService` precedent — an ordinal travels where the
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magnitude cannot). **Nothing sorts by it yet.**
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- **Edge stays stored** in the ledger, as required.
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---
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## THE FLIP, WHEN YOU WANT IT
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One decision, three edits: `selectTopGrades` and `flattenToEdgeBoard` sort by
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`forecast_rank` when present; `rankGrades` drops its edge key. **Re-run the delta
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on a full MLB slate first** — 8 props is not a slate.
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## PINNACLE — LOGGED, NOT ENSHRINED
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Per the order: **"market-not-sharp" is PENDING-RECOVERY, not a confirmed permanent
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limitation.** The question for PropLine is logged in `BLOCKERS.md`:
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> *Why did Pinnacle MLB player-prop coverage stop on 2026-07-31?* Captures ran
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> 103,940 over the prior 10 days, then 4,022 → 0 while every other book continued.
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Until answered, the plan must not record "no sharp anchor exists" as permanent.
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