builtbykev
f3bf300b36
MLB decided overs n=296, 100% with locked_odds. ROI by locked-price bucket shows every 95% CI containing zero; the curve is NON-MONOTONE and runs opposite to the premise (deepest buckets positive, the -111..-160 middle most negative); and price bucket is confounded with market (+200up = doubles/HR longshots). Rows needed per bucket to resolve a 5-pt edge: 661-2285 vs actual 8-71 (~187 days for one bucket at current accrual). The inherited -160 is neither confirmed nor refuted. The no-ceiling call is not supported by this data either (+200up is the worst bucket) though it is not refuted - it stays a design choice, not a data-backed one. Recommends C2 proceed with -160 as an explicitly-labelled POLICY floor plus a re-derivation trigger (any negative bucket n>=300, or end of MLB regular season; adopt a derived floor only when a bucket CI excludes zero). Enumerates all 9 takeable sites, incl. the live drift hazard (backend env-tunable, frontend hardcoded) and the user-visible band copy in PriceTriplet. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01QJs13VsyiSKYQP6rj3NNmc