vyndr/specs/STATE.md

# VYNDR — STATE OF THE WORLD
### As of `HEAD` on main (DEPLOYED + fingerprinted live), 2026-07-20. This file opens every future session. **Start with the CURRENT STATUS + OPEN ITEMS block below.**

---

# 🧭 CURRENT STATUS + OPEN ITEMS — orientation block (2026-07-20, ~03:20 UTC)
*Written to orient a fresh session. Ground truth, not optimism. Everything below
was verified live unless explicitly marked UNVERIFIED.*

## What shipped tonight (all deployed + fingerprinted)

| # | Shipped | Proof |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | **Probability layer revived** — it was DEAD in prod | `p_win`/`ev_pct`/`model_odds`/`value` on **32/32** live grades (was 0/8) |
| 2 | **Value engine Arc 1** — de-vig, EV, value triplet, hero v2 | live: book −140 · fair −125 · model −109, `value:false` correctly |
| 3 | **Grade-range work** — L20 symmetry, `refreshTeamStats` wired, consistency CV guard, `confidence_basis`, dead `mlbGrader.js` removed | suite 279/3325; D emitted on real WNBA data locally |
| 4 | **Backup durable ON-BOX** | dump read back: **643 rows in dump == 643 live**, 18 MB |
| 5 | **`model_snapshots` retention LIVE** (migration 025) | **100 rows** captured over 2 cycles, incl. **36 refusals** |
| 6 | ESPN team-stats parser fixed (`buckets is not iterable`, 0/15 → 15/15) | live refresh |

### ⚠️ Two honest qualifiers on the above
- **A STILL DOES NOT EMIT IN PRODUCTION.** The 11-step grade is now *stored*
  (`grade_11`) and A/D are *arithmetically* reachable + locked by tests, but the
  ±1.0 opponent factor is still dead because `opp_rank_stat` is underivable from
  ESPN (see open item 6). Live boards remain **B/C only**.
  **→ The "A-RATED" marketing hold STANDS** (`AccuracyBadge` correctly falls
  through to "MODEL · X% HIT"; `TopSignals` self-hides). Do not promote A-rated.
- **EV IS OVERCONFIDENT AND UNVALIDATED.** First captured values include
  **+62.1% / +61% / +56.9%** — real markets don't offer that. Cause: `p_win`
  clamps at `PROB_CEIL` 0.95 off ~10 games. **Hero v2 ranks on `ev_pct`, so it
  picks the MOST overconfident read.** Do not surface EV as truth until
  calibration runs on the harness.

## 🟢 OFF-BOX BACKUP — CLOSED. FULL ROUND TRIP PROVEN (2026-07-20 05:25 UTC)

**Root cause (Kev):** the vyndr-backup key was only in Hetzner's PROJECT ssh-key
store, never in the Storage Box's own `.ssh/authorized_keys`. Installed there →
the box now offers `publickey,password` (it previously offered an EMPTY auth
list, which is what "SSH not enabled on this box" looks like).

**Proven end-to-end:**
- `POST /api/internal/backup/run` → `ok:true`, **`offbox_ok:true`**, exit 0, 31s.
- Output confirms both env questions: **`ssh key: base64-decoded`** (the key is
  correct base64, not a mangled raw paste) and destination
  **`u635423@...:vyndr-backups/`** — no leading-slash bug.
- **File VERIFIED on the box, not inferred from exit 0:**
  `GET /api/internal/backup/offbox` (rsync `--list-only` through the pinned host
  key) returned `vyndr-20260720-051158.dump`, **833,917 bytes, 05:12:28 UTC** —
  byte-identical size to the local dump, timestamp from that run.

**Hardening shipped with it:**
- **Host key STATICALLY PINNED.** `ssh-keyscan` matched the out-of-band
  fingerprint `SHA256:XqONwb1S0zuj5A1CDxpOSuD2hnAArV1A3wKY7Z3sdgM`;
  `scripts/storagebox_known_hosts` ships to the container and the script uses
  `StrictHostKeyChecking=yes` + `UserKnownHostsFile=<pin>`. `accept-new`
  (trust-on-first-use) is GONE; a missing pin file REFUSES the push. Tests
  assert the weakenings never return.
- **Remote dir guaranteed** — `--mkpath`, else remote `mkdir -p`. Without it a
  push into a missing parent can write the dump AS the directory name: one file,
  overwritten nightly, reading as "backups exist" while retaining exactly one.
- **A failed required push now PAGES** at urgent (was "low/deferred") and the run
  reports `offbox_ok:false`. Exit code still tracks ON-BOX durability so a good
  on-box dump never raises a false total-failure alarm.

### ✅ ROUND TRIP CLOSED — pulled back off-box and rebuilt into a live DB (05:25 UTC)
The full insurance chain is now PROVEN, not assumed: dump → validated → pushed
off-box → verified on the box → **pulled back down from the box → restored into a
live Postgres**.
- **Pulled FROM the Storage Box** (not the local copy) with the in-session key
  through the pinned host key (`StrictHostKeyChecking=yes`, never bypassed):
  `vyndr-20260720-051158.dump`, 833,917 bytes — byte-identical to what was pushed.
- **Restored into scratch Postgres 17** (docker): 715 archive objects,
  **42 public tables**, `ledger_entries` with all **27 columns** and real rows
  (spot-checked: Kelsey Mitchell points o22.5 B −105 hit).
- **ASSERTION PASSED — `ledger_entries` restored = 645, live = 645** (target was
  ≥ 645). `model_snapshots` also restored 100/100, so the new retention store is
  covered by backups from day one.
- Scratch DB torn down; the pulled copy deleted; **both dumps still on the box**
  (nothing rotated out, cron untouched).

**🔴 OPERATIONAL GOTCHA FOUND DURING THE RESTORE — record this in any DR runbook:**
the dump is written by **pg_dump 17** (Supabase is PG 17.6), so **pg_restore 16
CANNOT read it** — it fails with `unsupported version (1.16) in file header`.
The first restore attempt failed for exactly this reason. **Restore with PG 17+
tooling** (`postgres:17-alpine` works). Restoring into vanilla Postgres also logs
`errors ignored on restore: 12` — Supabase-specific roles/extensions that do not
exist locally; harmless, the data restores completely.

## Open items — with status

| Item | Status | Note |
|---|---|---|
| **Settlement: 0 pushes / 470 settled** | 🔴 OPEN, unstarted | Implausible — hits/TB land on the number regularly. Exact-number push almost certainly mis-scored as hit or miss. Corrupts every accuracy/ROI number. |
| **~28 props/day never settle** | 🔴 OPEN, unstarted | Jul 17 MLB 86 graded/57 settled; Jul 18 103/75. Cause undiagnosed. |
| **Model-version contamination** | 🟠 PERMANENT, mitigate | `ledger_entries` mixes pre/post-2026-07-19-fix grades with no marker; eras cannot be separated retroactively. **Any backtest/accuracy claim off existing ledger history MUST treat the fix boundary as a hard cutoff.** `model_snapshots` stamps `model_version`+`code_sha` so it can't recur. |
| **A-grade unreachable in prod** | 🔴 OPEN | `opp_rank_stat` null; ESPN team endpoint has no defensive metric at all. Marketing hold stands. |
| **EV overconfident** | 🟠 OPEN | Needs calibration before it drives any surface. Hero v2 already ranks on it. |
| **`edge_pct` broken scale (U-deg pt 2)** | 🔴 OPEN | 51.5% of ledger rows exceed the sane cap; worst 620. 13 frontend surfaces render it; **nothing renders `ev_pct`**; it's the free-tier hook; it's written to the append-only `edge` column every cron. |
| **CLV broken (C4)** | 🔴 OPEN | `closing_line == locked_line` on ~95% of rows. BEAT CLOSE suppressed. **CLV ledger stays PRIVATE until backtest-proven.** |
| **Consistency CV floor** | 🟠 STOPGAP | `CONSISTENCY_MIN_MEAN=4` leaves a ±1.0 dead for MLB low-count stats. Real fix = index-of-dispersion classifier; needs a backtest first. |

### 🔑 THREE KEYS TO ROTATE (all currently valid)
1. **Storage Box password** — Kev plans a fresh reset; do it before/with the SSH fix.
2. **`VYNDR_INTERNAL_KEY`** — was pasted in plaintext into a chat transcript
   (2026-07-19) and is in the local `.env`. It gates snapshot triggers, backup
   runs, settle passes and the newsletter send. **Rotate: Coolify env + local
   `.env` together.**
3. **GitHub PAT in the `origin` remote** — plaintext in `.git/config`, leaked
   since ~Session 31. Deploys run off `gitea` so it's inert, but it is a live
   credential. Revoke on GitHub; the remote can simply be deleted.

## Next queued work (in order)

1. **Backtest harness** — reads `model_snapshots`. **Needs ~2 weeks of history**;
   as of now it holds ONE night. Its honest first output is *"cannot validate
   yet"* and that is the expected, correct result. Build the instrument now, let
   data accumulate.
2. **Settlement-correctness audit** — the two bugs above. Highest-value
   correctness work: everything downstream trusts hit/miss.
3. **A-grade / opponent-strength sourcing** — MLB is **solved and verified**:
   `statsapi` `teams/stats?group=pitching` returns all 30 teams free with
   `era/whip/avg/slg/ops/HR9`, and it's *stat-specific*, which beats what we were
   fetching. NBA/WNBA need `stats.nba.com` or derived allowed-points. Implement
   behind the **source-adapter pattern** (health check that PAGES on empty —
   tonight's ESPN crash was invisible for exactly that reason).
4. **Metrics engine** — archetype-baselined proprietary metrics
   (`specs/model-train.md` §2C). **Gated on the harness**: every metric family
   ships only if it backtests better than without it.

**Governing docs:** `specs/model-train.md` (value engine + phases + north star) ·
`specs/snapshot-retention.md` (Phase 2 report + schema) ·
`specs/audit-data/grade-collapse.md` · `specs/audit-data/gate-simulation.md`.

---

# 🟢 SESSION 65 — TWO TRUTH-LAW FIXES (2026-07-20, from Chrome's logged-out audit)
Both found by auditing the product as a STRANGER sees it. Neither touches the
triplet build; push scoring untouched.

## Doc drift corrected in this session
The header of this file was stale at `7ea0af2` and this file carried **no record
of the directional-CLV session** (`dcdad60` → `ca9ca34`: `src/services/
directionalClv.js`, the Analyst+Desk server-gated `ClvBadge`, and removal of the
legacy C4 CLV chip from five surfaces). `BUILD-STATE.md` is stale to April 2026 —
**`specs/STATE.md` is the authoritative state file**; treat BUILD-STATE as archive.

## FIX 1 — "CLV-VERIFIED" UN-CLAIMED ON THE PUBLIC PROFILE (copy + 2 render blocks)
`/u/[handle]` was titled **"CLV-verified record"** with the subhead **"closing-line
value included"** while **zero** closing-line value renders there. Verified live,
not assumed: `GET /api/profiles/vyndr` → `beat_close_pct: null` (gated behind
`clvCaptureReliable()` / `CLV_CAPTURE_RELIABLE`, which is unset while C4 is open).
A verification claim with nothing verified shown is an unearned claim, and it
leaked the standing CLV hold onto a surface that had never been audited.

**EIGHT instances found — two of them ONLY by the post-removal residual sweep:**

| # | Where | Was |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | `u/[handle]/page.tsx` | `<title>` / `og:title` / `twitter:title` — "CLV-verified record" |
| 2 | `u/[handle]/page.tsx` | meta + og + twitter description — "closing-line value included" |
| 3 | `u/[handle]/opengraph-image.tsx` | no-record fallback tagline |
| 4 | `u/[handle]/portrait/route.tsx` | no-record fallback tagline |
| 5 | `PublicProfile.tsx` | house subhead — "closing-line value included" |
| 6 | `PublicProfile.tsx` | `✓ CLV-VERIFIED` badge (gated, dark, one env flag from re-claiming) |
| **7** | `opengraph-image.tsx` | **eyebrow `CLV-VERIFIED RECORD · 30D`** — missed in the first report |
| **8** | `portrait/route.tsx` | **same eyebrow** — missed in the first report |

Instances 3 + 4 printed the verification claim **exactly when there is no record
at all** (the `rec == null` branch), i.e. the claim was loudest where the data was
most absent.

**Applied:** honest copy on 1–5 + 7–8 (settled record · wins and misses · nothing
curated); the badge (6a) and the `BEAT CLOSE` figure (6b) REMOVED from the public
profile, OG card and portrait card. **DISPLAY ONLY — `beat_close_pct`,
`clvCaptureReliable()`, `closing_captures` and the whole CLV data path are
untouched**, and the earned directional badge stays Analyst+Desk (never public).
The claim returns here when CLV genuinely renders here.

**Title double-append fixed and VERIFIED ON COMPOSED OUTPUT, not source:** the page
title carried its own `· VYNDR` while `layout.tsx`'s metadata template already
appends `%s · VYNDR` → live was `…@vyndr · VYNDR · VYNDR`. Built the app, served
it, and read the real HTML: `<title>Settled record — @vyndr · VYNDR</title>` —
exactly one suffix. Note `openGraph`/`twitter` titles **bypass** the template, so
they carry the brand suffix explicitly.

Both share images re-rendered locally (200 / image/png) and eyeballed: no overflow,
no clip, no residual CLV scaffold.

## FIX 2 — FORM WAS FABRICATED ON THE PLAYER PAGE (un-fabricate; steps 2+3 HELD)
Chrome saw Josh Bell as **FORM 74** (player page) and **Form 63** (generated read)
in one session. Traced both. **Neither feeds the grade** — proven, not assumed:
`engine1.gradeProp` runs at `analyzeViaEngine1.js:446`, `buildIntelFields` (which
computes form) decorates the already-graded object at `:468`; `engine1.js` never
reads a `form` key (only raw `l5_avg`/`l20_avg` **against the line**), and nothing
in `src/` reads `result.form`. Grade inputs are byte-identical before/after.

- **63 is real** — `70 + (l5_avg / l20_avg − 1) × 60`, per-prop, per-stat.
- **74 was manufactured** — `70 + 4 × (count of tonight's graded props)`, capped
  92. **Nothing on the HTTP path ever sets `stats.form`**, so that fallback WAS
  the live value. Confirmed empirically: Bell's payload carries `activeProps`
  length **1** → 70 + 4 = **74**, exact.
- It **poisoned a second tile**: `MATCHUP` was `gradeFromForm(form)` — Bell's
  "B" was `gradeFromForm(74)`, from the prop count, with **no opponent input on
  that path at all**; the no-archetype branch hardcoded `'B'`. Both fabricated.
- **SYSTEMIC, not Bell-specific** — `buildIntel` is the unconditional path for
  every player and every sport.

**Applied (absent renders absent):** FORM and MATCHUP now emit `kind:'plain'`
with `'—'` when there is no real value — `'plain'` deliberately, so the page
draws no progress bar and computes no width/colour off a null. `gradeFromForm`
deleted; the prop count is no longer passed into `buildIntel` at all.
`computeFormScore`'s hardcoded **75** (returned whenever the baseline was missing
or zero) now returns `undefined` → the card's self-hiding intel section drops the
row. Induced live across **MLB / NBA / WNBA**: all render `—` cleanly; real values
(`USAGE 3.6 AB/G`, `REST B2B`) still render — the fix is surgical to fabrications.

**HELD (needs a per-sport headline-stat design call, deliberately NOT built):** a
real player-level form metric + label disambiguation (page-level vs per-stat). It
lands as `stats.form` / `stats.matchup` and lights these tiles straight back up.

### Audit of the same file (order item 10) — reported, NOT changed
`toNum()` (`playerIntelService.js:18`) returns **0** for absent, feeding
`classifierInput`: `k_rate` (`pa > 0 ? … : 0`), `ip_per_start`, `k9`, `saves`.
These are **classifier inputs, not display** — a 0 there can misclassify an
archetype (0% K-rate reads as elite contact). Same family as the `Number(null)
=== 0` rule. `mlbLast10Rows` renders `${st.hits ?? 0}-${st.atBats ?? 0}`, which
prints a real-looking `0-0` line if a game-log row lacks its stat object.
**Ambiguous — changing classifier inputs shifts archetypes, so it needs its own
order.** Display rows elsewhere (`mlbSeasonRows`, ESPN season rows) correctly use
`?? '—'`.


---

## 🟢 MLB opp_rank_stat LIVE — computed, CONSUMED, retained (2026-07-20 16:51 UTC)
- **Consumption path verified BEFORE wiring** (a value the grader doesn't read
  is a dead end): `featureCache.teamFeatures` sets `out.opp_rank_stat` →
  `engine1.computeFactors` READS `features.opp_rank_stat` → fires
  `weak_opponent_defense` (≥0.70) / `top_opponent_defense` (≤0.30).
- **Source:** `mlbStatsAdapter.getTeamPitchingStats` — all 30 teams in ONE free
  unauthenticated statsapi call. Only fills when the ESPN path yields nothing
  (always, for MLB), so WNBA is untouched.
- **CONSUMPTION PROVEN on the exact retained vector** (Josh Bell hits o0.5),
  varying only `opp_rank_stat`:

| opp_rank_stat | grade | factors |
|---|---|---|
| 0.367 (as retained, mid) | **B-** | l5_hot_vs_line, l20_over_line, back_to_back |
| 0.98 (weak) | **B** | + **weak_opponent_defense** |
| 0.02 (tough) | **C** | + **top_opponent_defense**, away_vs_top5_defense |
| absent | **B-** | identical to mid — neither fires ✅ |

- **RETAINED** grade-time in `model_snapshots.features` (immutable, joinable).

### 📊 COVERAGE FIRST — then the grade read
**8 of 14 graded MLB rows carried a non-null `opp_rank_stat` (57 %); 6 null.**
The nulls are almost certainly unresolved `opponentAbbr` (`teamFeatures` returns
early without one), NOT the sample floor — but that is **undetermined without
container logs**, so it is reported as such rather than asserted.

**🔴 THE FACTOR FIRED ON ZERO ROWS THIS CYCLE.** All 8 non-null values were the
SAME mid-scale `0.367` (one opponent, neither threshold crossed:
`would_fire_weak 0`, `would_fire_tough 0`). **So this slate cannot test
A-emission at all** — the factor was present but inert. Any "A didn't emit"
reading from tonight is meaningless.

**Live MLB 11-step distribution (14 graded):** `C+ 4 · F 4 · B- 2 · C 2 · D 2`.
**No A.** Notably **F now emits (4 rows)** — the range has widened DOWNWARD, as
the restored ±1.0 makes Σδ ≤ −2.51 reachable for the first time.

**A-rated marketing stays HELD.** No thresholds changed. A genuine test needs a
slate with a weak-BAA opponent (≥0.70) so the +1.0 can actually lift a read.

### Thin-sample floor in production
No thin-sample opponent appeared on this slate, so the production null-floor path
was **not exercised live** — unit-tested only. Stated rather than implied.

## 🟢 HARNESS ARMED + CLOSING CAPTURE STARTED (2026-07-20 ~16:10 UTC)
Both verified by INDUCING the real code path — never by waiting for a slot.

**A — Backtest harness runs on OUR scheduler.** `snapshotScheduler` fires it at
`HARNESS_HOUR_UTC` (default 14), appends to `harness_results`, and
`opsWatch.harnessStaleAlarm` pages if it stops (a validator that isn't running
looks exactly like one that keeps passing). No external dependency.
**INDUCED live:** `verdict INSUFFICIENT_HISTORY, scored 35, joined 283,
snapshots 478` — the correct, passing output. `POST /api/internal/harness/run`.

**B — Closing capture (CAPTURE ONLY; no CLV metric, as ordered).**
- **C4 diagnosed:** `closing_line` is ONE overwritable field with no timestamp
  and no provenance. `captureClosing` writes the current line and, on a prop
  match failure, silently leaves the earlier value (= the lock) in place — so
  "captured a real close" is indistinguishable from "never updated". It is
  **92 % equal, not 100 %** (56 rows DID move): the defect is **provenance**.
- **`closing_captures` (migration 029)** — append-only, never overwritten, BOTH
  raw side prices retained so the existing de-vig engine computes the fair
  closing probability later. Sharp (`pinnacle`) vs book close kept distinct:
  "beat the market" and "beat our book" are different questions.
- **JOIN drops `line` on purpose** — a close that MOVED off the graded line is
  the whole point of CLV. Verified safe: all 164 identity groups have exactly
  ONE line per `(sport, player_key, stat, side, game_date)`; zero ambiguity.
- **Wired into the intraday refresh** (already polls ~20 min through slate
  hours) with a capture-rate alarm — a missed close is unrecoverable.
- **🔴 ODAWA IS NOT CAPTURABLE.** `odawa` exists only as a UI preference option
  in onboarding/settings — no adapter, no `ALLOWED_BOOKS` entry, no feed. CLV
  vs our own book cannot be measured until a real Odawa feed exists.
- **Refusals proven first (test-first):** unbound game_time, doubleheader
  ambiguity, missed window, or a one-sided price → `missed_reason` and **NO
  price**. Induced live: 1,076 rows correctly refused `one_sided_price`.

### ⚠️ MY OWN ERROR, CAUGHT AND REVERTED
To force a capture I widened the window to 1,200 min and **persisted 7,114
rows** — every one had a lead time of **392–602 minutes**, i.e. 6.5–10 hours
before lock. **Those were not closes.** Leaving them in a table named
`closing_captures` would have poisoned the first CLV computation with pseudo-
closes. **All 7,114 deleted; table verified back to 0.** Verification is now
done with `?dry=1`, which proves the pricing path (wnba: 486 rows priced, 0
missed) while writing nothing. The real 45-min window currently yields 0 rows
because no game is near lock — which is the correct answer, not a failure.

## 🟢 HEAL EXECUTED (Order 2, 2026-07-20 ~10:00 UTC) — record is clean
Rollback point first: `vyndr-20260720-093821.dump` (856,890 B) **verified ON the
Storage Box**, not just exit 0.

**⚠️ THE DRY-RUN OVERTURNED MY OWN DIAGNOSIS — read this before trusting the
Order 1.5 notes above.** Across every bindable row the stored `game_date`
matched a real game (**MIS-DATED: 0**). The players I cited as proof of
mis-dating were **genuine DNPs** on their true dates (Freeman 07-18;
Kwan/Hedges/Davis 07-17 — their teams played, they did not). **The original 64
`player_dnp` voids were CORRECT and my Order 1.5 revert undid correct work.**

| Axis | Result |
|---|---|
| Settlement scorer | **578/578 re-computed identical, 0 differ** — confirmed, no heal needed |
| Dates | 527 correct · **0 mis-dated** · 170 unbindable (my dry-run's parser, NOT proven damage) |
| Grade damage | **51 rows, not 303** — the rest hit the same opponent anyway (baseball SERIES effect) |

**Writes executed (each verified against the dry-run prediction):**
- **64 re-voided** (60 mlb + 4 wnba) — by the settle pass's positive-evidence
  guard, not hand-picked ids. DNP voiding re-enabled deliberately because its
  disable rested on a false premise.
- **25 ledger rows quarantined** `wrong_opponent_grade` (wnba 2026-07-18,
  10 hit / 15 miss). They REMAIN real public settled results; only train/validate
  excludes them.
- **200 `model_snapshots` rows quarantined** — the 4 pre-fix MLB cycles for
  game_date 07-20 (06:00/06:02/06:03/07:25 UTC). Superseded by the correct
  07:50/07:51 captures of the same props, so nothing is lost.
- **70 rows flagged** `doubleheader_game_identified`.

**TWO EXCLUSION SCOPES (migration 027) — deliberately separate:**
- `quarantine_reason` → grade untrustworthy. Row stays a real public result but
  is **excluded from the model-record denominator** (`getModelAggregate`), like
  void/unrecoverable.
- `analysis_flags` → valid for settlement AND the record; excluded only from
  per-game/opponent analysis. **Never filtered from aggregates** (a test asserts
  this, so a future edit can't silently collapse the two).

**Corrections to my own Phase 0 numbers, found while executing:**
- The 50 WNBA "poisoned moat rows" were **NOT poisoned** — captured 03:02 UTC
  (23:02 ET 07-19) for game_date 07-19, so ESPN's "today" was the right day.
- The 166 doubleheader rows came from **loose team matching** and could not be
  reconciled (a strict predicate found 121). I flagged only the **70** rows the
  FEED itself marks (`G2…`/`(Game1)`) — and those are attributable, not
  unattributed. The wider unattributed set needs a stricter pass; it is advisory
  metadata that affects no number today.

**Final state:** 360 hit · 218 miss · 64 void · 55 pending · 25 quarantined
(697 public rows). 26 pending mlb 07-20 rows left untouched to self-heal on the
next cycle, as ordered.

## 🟢 GRADING DATE BINDING FIXED — wrong-opponent bug closed (2026-07-20 07:50 UTC)
`computeFeatures.lookupTodayGame` → **`lookupGameOnDate`**: it now sends
`?dates=YYYYMMDD` from the prop's BOUND game instead of taking ESPN's dateless
"today". Grading, settlement, retention and the ledger finally reference the
SAME game. **This was a MODEL-OUTPUT bug**: `opponentAbbr` feeds `opp_rank_stat`
(a ±1.0 factor) and `isHome` feeds `home_away` (+0.5).

**PROVEN against live ESPN, same instant:**
```
dateless "today"      CLE→PIT   NYY→LAD   LAD→NYY    (Jul 19 card)
bound to 2026-07-20   CLE→MIN   NYY→PIT   LAD→PHI    (the real games)
bound to 2026-07-19   CLE→PIT   NYY→LAD   LAD→NYY    (reproduces OLD exactly)
```
**Every opponent was wrong.** Measured at 07:5x UTC = **03:5x ET** — ESPN's
dateless scoreboard was STILL serving the previous day's card, so **the affected
window is wider than the 01:00/03:00 slots**.

- **Honest degradation:** no bound date → NO fallback lookup. Records
  `no_bound_game_date`, leaves `opponentAbbr`/`isHome`/`gameId` null, and engine1
  omits those factors rather than scoring a wrong matchup. Tests lock both ways.
- **Same class, also fixed:** Tank01 augmentation keyed its cache on TODAY's UTC
  date; now uses the bound game date.
- **Audited:** no other dateless/"today" lookups remain in the feature path
  (weather is current-conditions by venue; park/pace are static).
- Live cycles at 07:50/07:51 UTC wrote retention rows with `game_date 2026-07-20`
  and `home_away` on 38/50 — games binding. MLB `opp_rank_stat` stays 0 for the
  separate, known reason (ESPN's MLB team endpoint carries no defensive metric).

### 🔴 BLAST RADIUS (report-only — gates the heal)
**`ledger_entries` — grades by UTC hour (at-risk = late slots):**

| UTC hour | grades | settled results | risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| 00 | 32 | 29 | 🔴 at risk |
| 01 | 68 | 67 | 🔴 at risk |
| 03 | 152 | 103 | 🔴 at risk |
| 06 | 51 | 0 | 🔴 at risk (ESPN still on prior card at 02 ET) |
| 13/14/19/22 | 390 | 379 | ✅ same-ET-day, correct |

**At-risk: 303 grades (199 already settled with real results).** ~44 % of the
public record was graded in the affected window.

**`model_snapshots`:** 350 rows total — **50 carry `opp_rank_stat`** (the 03:02
UTC WNBA cycle) and are the poisoned moat rows; 190 carry `home_away`. Rows
captured 07:50+ are clean (post-fix).

**Recoverable vs quarantine (PLAN ONLY, nothing written):**
- **RECOVERABLE:** the correct opponent for a past date is still fetchable from
  the date-pinned ESPN scoreboard, so a grade can be RE-DERIVED — but only where
  the feature vector is reproducible. `model_snapshots` rows store the full
  feature vector, so those are re-computable; **ledger rows do not** and would
  need a full re-grade against historical inputs.
- **QUARANTINE:** any at-risk ledger grade that cannot be re-derived should be
  marked computed-against-wrong-opponent and EXCLUDED from harness/validation —
  never silently trusted. It stays in the public record as a real settled bet
  (the result happened) but must not train or validate anything.
- **Scope note for the heal:** at-risk is defined by grading HOUR, not by proven
  wrongness. Proving per-row wrongness requires re-deriving each row's opponent —
  that IS the heal work.

## 🟢 game_date ROOT FIXED + 64 WRONG VOIDS REVERTED (2026-07-20 07:30 UTC)
- **ROOT (not DNP, as first diagnosed):** PropLine emits **no `commence_time`**
  (grep-verified), so `ledgerService`'s `dateET(prop.game_time) ||
  dateET(gradedTs)` always fell through to the **GRADE clock**. A 01:00/03:00
  UTC snapshot is 21:00/23:00 ET the PREVIOUS day → tonight's props filed under
  yesterday → settlement correctly found no game → Order 1's void logic
  destroyed 64 real results.
- **FIX — `src/services/gameBinder.js`:** binds each prop to a scheduled game by
  TEAMS across the ET window (grade date, +1, −1) and attaches the GAME'S own
  time/date/id, in `snapshotService` **before** grading and the ledger write, so
  ledger + retention + settlement all inherit one correct date.
  **PROVEN against the live schedule at the failing hour:** a `2026-07-20T03:00Z`
  grade (ET date 07-19, what the old code used) bound Steven Kwan to
  **game_date 2026-07-20**, `mlb:2026-07-20:401816188`.
- **HARD CONTRACT:** unbindable → **nothing**. The grade-clock fallback is gone;
  ledgerService SKIPS and counts such rows. Verified live: a prop with an
  invented matchup returned `unresolved`, never a guessed date.
- **Doubleheaders** are flagged `ambiguous`, never attributed. Real case already
  in data: `mlb:2026-07-11:MilwaukeeBrewers@PittsburghPirates(Game1)`.
- **Retention had the same bug** (rows dated by the snapshot clock) — fixed to
  the bound game's ET date.
- **64 wrong voids REVERTED** (60 mlb + 4 wnba), scoped exactly to
  `settlement_version=2 AND outcome='void' AND settlement_source='player_dnp'`.
- **LIVE PROOF of the safety fix:** the next induced settle pass returned
  **`voided: 0, pending: 64`**. The old code voided all 64; the deployed code
  refuses to claim DNP on an unconfirmed absence.

### 🔴 STOP-AND-REPORT — the date bug also reaches GRADING (not just settlement)
`computeFeatures.lookupTodayGame` calls the ESPN scoreboard with **no date
param** — it takes whatever ESPN calls "today". A prop graded at 23:00 ET can
therefore bind its `home_away` / `opponentAbbr` features to the WRONG game
(yesterday's finished one), which feeds `opp_rank_stat` and the home/away factor.
**Not fixed — flagged per the order's stop rule.** Blast radius:
- **Grading: AFFECTED** (feature correctness at late-ET slots — 01:00/03:00 UTC).
- **Settlement: FIXED** (this order).
- **Retention: FIXED** (this order).
- **Display/slate: NOT affected** — the board renders from the date-pinned
  schedule and joins grades by player+stat, never by ledger `game_date`.

### 🔶 STILL OPEN — the reverted 64 cannot settle yet
Their `game_date` is still the OLD wrong value (Jul 17/18); the binder only
corrects rows written from now on. They will retry and age to `unrecoverable`
until their dates are corrected. **Correcting them is the first act of the heal
order** — healing against wrong dates would simply re-fail.

## 🟢 RETENTION CLOCK TICKS ON ITS OWN (2026-07-20 06:05 UTC)
Induced the REAL cron entrypoint rather than waiting for 14:00 UTC.
- **Cron capture needed NO wiring — verified in code.** `snapshotScheduler`'s
  tick calls `runAll` = `snapshotService.runAllSnapshots` → `runSnapshot` per
  sport → `gradeAndCacheSlate` → `onGraded` → retention. **The scheduled and
  manual paths are the same function.** Nothing had been captured only because
  no slot had fired since retention deployed (~02:55; slots 14/19/22/1/3).
- **PROVEN by induction:** `POST /api/internal/snapshot/all` (= `runAllSnapshots`,
  the exact function the tick calls) wrote cycles at **06:03:23 mlb** and
  **06:05:09 wnba**, 50 rows each, `cycle_hour_utc=6`, features 50/50.
  *(The HTTP request gateway-timed-out at ~2 min; the job completed server-side —
  verified in the DB, not from the response.)*
- **`archetype` FIXED — 50/50 on MLB** (was 0/100). Retention still COLLECTS at
  grade time (only moment features exist) but now PERSISTS after enrichment via
  `retentionService.mergeEnrichment`, which fills ONLY archetype/team/opponent
  and never rewrites grade-time features or model output (test-locked).
- **🔶 `team`/`opponent` STILL NULL — upstream, not the merge.** The ENRICHED
  grades themselves carry `team:null` (verified live: 0/25 with team, 25/25 with
  archetype). `resolvePlayerStats` doesn't return `stats.team` for MLB, and
  enrichment never sets `opponent` at all. Fixing that is an upstream change,
  deliberately not made under this order.
- **WNBA archetype is null** — honest absence: WNBA stats don't resolve (Python
  service offline), so there is nothing to classify from.
- **ZERO-WRITE ALARM ARMED** — `opsWatch.retentionZeroWriteAlarm` pages at
  missed-snapshot severity when a slot GRADED props but retention wrote fewer
  rows than the slate. `runSnapshot` now returns `retentionRows` so the tick can
  evaluate it. Retention is best-effort by design, so a broken write is silent by
  construction; this is the counterweight. Verified quiet on a healthy run
  (gradeCount 25 → retentionRows 50).
- **INTRADAY DEFERRED (Phase 4).** `intradayRefreshService` calls
  `analyzeViaEngine1` DIRECTLY — it never goes through `gradeAndCacheSlate`, so
  there is no `onGraded` hook to reuse. Capturing it needs its own ctx +
  snapshot_id + persist path and would ~5× row volume. Not small; not done.
- Outcome stamping still NOT implemented (depends on the settlement fix).

## 🟢 RETENTION LIVE — model_snapshots capturing (2026-07-20, migration 025 applied)
Phase 2 priority zero. **History now compounds from tonight.** Spec:
`specs/snapshot-retention.md`.
- **Why:** the ONLY model history was `ledger_entries` (640 rows / 6 game days)
  and it stores NO model inputs. All ~30 other warehouse tables are empty. We
  could score our own grades but could not replay a different model — the only
  question a backtest answers.
- **`model_snapshots`** (migration 025, APPLIED): append-only, ONE ROW PER GRADED
  PROP PER SIDE PER CYCLE. Unique on `(snapshot_id, player_key, stat, line,
  side)` so a retried cycle can't duplicate. RLS on, service-role writes only.
- **VERIFIED CAPTURING (2026-07-20 03:02 UTC, 2 triggered cycles): 100 rows.**
  MLB 50 (14 graded / **36 refused**), WNBA 50 (50 graded). `features`,
  `grade_11`, `p_win`, `ev_pct` populated on 100% of graded rows; 1 model_version.
- **Refusals are captured — the ledger drops them entirely.** First-ever refusal
  breakdown: `juiced_no_edge` 18, `rare_event_over_below_line` 13,
  `insufficient_data` 5. **The MLB gate refused 36 of 50 sides (72%)** — whether
  that costs edge is now measurable for the first time.
- Contract: retention is best-effort + injectable; `persist()` returns errors and
  never throws. **A retention failure can never break a snapshot.**
- 🔶 **EV LOOKS OVERCONFIDENT — do not surface it as truth yet.** First captured
  EVs include +62.1%, +61%, +56.9% — implausible for real markets. Cause is the
  quantile estimator clamping `p_win` at 0.95 (`PROB_CEIL`) off ~10 games.
  **Hero v2 already ranks by highest `ev_pct`, so it will select the MOST
  overconfident read.** Calibration (C-cal) must run on the harness before EV
  drives anything user-facing.

## 🔶 SETTLEMENT-CORRECTNESS AUDIT — two concrete findings (open, scheduled)
Logged from the Phase 2 history report; do NOT fix inside a retention build.
1. **ZERO pushes across 470 settled rows.** Implausible — hits/TB land exactly on
   the number regularly. The exact-number push case is almost certainly
   mis-scored (silently counted as hit or miss).
2. **~28 props/day never settle** (Jul 17 MLB 86 graded/57 settled; Jul 18
   103/75). Cause undiagnosed.
Both are correctness bugs in the scoring that accuracy, ROI, CLV and every public
record depend on.

## 🔴 MODEL-VERSION CONTAMINATION in ledger_entries (permanent, mitigate by cutoff)
`ledger_entries` mixes pre- and post-2026-07-19-fix grades with **no version
marker**, and the eras cannot be separated retroactively. **Any backtest or
accuracy claim computed off existing ledger history must treat the fix boundary
as a hard cutoff.** `model_snapshots` stamps `model_version` + `code_sha` on every
row so this can never recur.

## 🟢 BACKUP — DURABLE ON-BOX, VERIFIED BY READ-BACK (2026-07-20, deployed)
The highest-severity open item is closed **on-box**. Off-box is a tracked follow-up.
- **Runs as CODE, not a cron somebody must install** (`src/backupScheduler.js`,
  armed in `server.js`). Arming is opt-OUT: armed whenever `SUPABASE_DB_URL`
  exists, `BACKUP_CRON=0` kills it, nightly `BACKUP_HOUR_UTC:BACKUP_MINUTE_UTC`
  (default 03:10 UTC). The S62 design was opt-in and nobody ever opted in — that
  is why the DB went unbacked for weeks. Deploy == installed now.
- **DURABLE:** `BACKUP_DIR=/app/backups` is a Coolify persistent volume, so dumps
  survive redeploys. The container-ephemeral risk is closed.
- **VERIFIED END-TO-END (2026-07-20 02:31 UTC):** `POST /api/internal/backup/run`
  → exit 0 in 31s → `vyndr-20260720-023136.dump`, **821,549 bytes**, 698 archive
  objects, ledger_entries present. `GET /api/internal/backup/verify` read the
  rows back OUT of the archive with `pg_restore`: **643 rows in the dump vs 643
  live — exact match**, DB 18 MB.
  - The earlier figure of 604 was a moving target, not a discrepancy: the ledger
    is append-only and 39 rows were written between the census and the dump
    (2 manual regrades + the 01:00 UTC cron; newest lock 01:01:45 UTC).
    604 + 39 = 643 reconciles exactly.
- **Permission bug found and fixed by the real run:** the first attempt failed
  with `pg_dump: Permission denied` — the container runs as non-root `vyndr`
  (uid 100/gid 101) and the mounted volume was root-owned. The Dockerfile now
  creates + chowns `/app/backups`; the verify endpoint reports `uid`/`gid`/
  `backup_dir_writable` so a mounted-but-unwritable volume is loud, not silent.
- **🔶 OFF-BOX IS DEFERRED, NOT DONE.** Storage Box SSH auth is not working yet,
  so the rsync is gated behind `BACKUP_OFFBOX=1` (+ `BACKUP_REMOTE` +
  `BACKUP_SSH_KEY`) and currently logs "DEFERRED". A failing push is a LOW
  priority notice, never a failure — the durable on-box dump succeeded, and
  crying wolf trains us to ignore backup alerts. **Remaining risk: a single
  Hetzner-side loss takes the dumps with it.** To finish: install the generated
  public key on the Storage Box, set `BACKUP_SSH_KEY` in Coolify (port 23 —
  22 is SFTP-only), flip `BACKUP_OFFBOX=1`.
- **Not yet done:** a full restore into a scratch Postgres SERVER. The read-back
  proves the archive CONTAINS the data; a server restore would additionally
  prove schema/constraint restorability. It needs the dump off the container,
  which is blocked on the same Storage Box auth.

## MODEL TRAIN — ARC 2 PREP: DEAD PROBABILITY LAYER REVIVED (2026-07-19, on main, DEPLOYED + fingerprinted)
Re-sequenced ahead of the gate work after the audit found the ranking signal did
not exist. Reports: `specs/audit-data/gate-simulation.md` (G-b/C-cal) +
`specs/audit-data/grade-collapse.md` (the big one).
- **p_win/ev_pct/kelly/model_odds/value were absent on 100% of live grades** —
  `gameLogService` returns null for MLB by construction + the Python service is
  offline, so `meta.gameLogs` was `[]` everywhere. EV, the Model Train's whole
  ranking signal, had never been computed on a live prop; hero v2 always fell
  through to its fallback; quarter-Kelly (sold on /pricing) never ran.
  FIX: `featureCache.getStatRows`. **Fingerprinted live: p_win 0.523, ev_pct
  -10.4, model_odds -109 — the value triplet is whole.**
- **Grade range restored ON MERIT** (rescaling permanently rejected):
  `refreshTeamStats` wired into `runSnapshot` (it had ZERO callers), L20 made
  symmetric (no negative branch existed), `game_count_in_7d` derived. D now emits
  (WNBA 1/25, earned at p_win 0.365). **A-emission awaits the 01 UTC snapshot** —
  `opp_rank_stat` needs that run. MARKETING HOLD on "A-RATED" copy until then.
- **Calibration guard:** consistency CV is NBA-tuned; `cv ~ 1/sqrt(mean)` made
  every MLB stat `boom_bust`. Floored at `CONSISTENCY_MIN_MEAN=4`.
- Ledger truth (576 rows): only B/C ever emitted, 9 confidence values, ceiling 63;
  past -400 was -7.7% ROI (the -400 floor was the whole win); flex -161..-250 is
  our BEST band (+2.2%) so its EV gate ships DISABLED. Suite 276/3286, build 0.

## MODEL TRAIN — ARC 1 (ENGINE) SHIPPED (2026-07-19, on main `7a925f4`, pushed, NOT yet deploy-fingerprinted)
Spec written retroactively: `specs/model-train.md` (arc list + what's open). Goal of the
train: make "real opportunities at takeable prices" the ENGINE, not a display filter.
Arc 1 = steps 1–6, backend only. **No frontend consumes the new fields yet** — the
triplet/VALUE marker/refusal copy are Design's Session-2 surfaces.
- **De-vig** (`src/utils/devig.js`, NEW): two-way multiplicative de-vig → fair prob +
  fair American price per side + `overround`. One side unpriced → fair is NULL, never
  faked. Also `americanToImpliedProb` / `americanToDecimal` / `impliedProbToAmerican`.
- **EV** (`devig.evPct`): `ev_pct = modelProb × decimal − 1`, at the graded side's
  ACTUAL price. This is the ranking signal now, replacing raw |model − consensus|.
- **Takeable / value gates** (`src/config/valueEngine.js`, NEW): `TAKEABLE_ODDS_CEILING`
  **−160**, `TAKEABLE_ODDS_MAX` **+200**, `VALUE_EV_THRESHOLD` **2** (%) — all env-tunable.
  `takeable` = price in band; `value` = takeable AND ev ≥ threshold. Strict null guards
  (`Number(null)===0` would have made a missing price "takeable").
- **Hero v2** (`heroPropService`): the hero is the highest `ev_pct` among **takeable**
  A/B reads — a huge model-vs-line gap on a −900 line is trivia, not an opportunity.
  Falls back to most-recent-real graded read on an empty slate (unchanged).
- **Value triplet** on every graded read: `book_odds` · `fair_odds` · `model_odds`
  (+ `fair_prob`, `overround`, `devig_method`). Wired inside `analyzeViaEngine1`'s
  existing p_win/Kelly block; rides the `...result` spread through snapshot / hero /
  scan. Documented in `BACKEND_HANDOFF.md`.
- **Test baseline: 276 suites / 3306 tests green** (was 274/3289), `next build` exit 0.
  New suites: `devig.test.js`, `valueEngine.test.js` (+ `heroPropService.test.js` rewritten).
- **Knobs NOT in this arc** (asked about, confirmed absent from the codebase):
  `EDGE_FLEX_WALL`, `HARD_JUICE_WALL`, `LADDER_ODDS_MAX`, `MIN_RUNG_PROBABILITY`.
  The only price wall on disk is the flat `JUICE_ODDS_FLOOR` (−400) from the
  rare-event work below — it is **not** edge-aware, and there is no −250 wall.

## RARE-EVENT UNDER SUPPRESSION (2026-07-19, on main)
Betting-logic audit: the CONSENSUS-vs-MODEL board flooded with "doubles u0.5 · MODEL 0.2 · +edge" fake reads (juiced rare-event unders). Report: the doubles projection is REAL per-player (MLB_LOG_FIELD doubles→doubles; values varied 0.03/0.16/0.2/0.22) — NOT a flat fallback; the issue is purely structural.
- **Config-driven** (`src/config/rareEventMarkets.js`): RARE_EVENT_STATS = doubles/triples/home_runs/stolen_bases, RARE_EVENT_LINE_MAX = 0.5.
- **Grade layer** (`analyzeViaEngine1`): rare-event UNDER at ≤0.5 → always refused (grade null + suppressed); rare-event OVER at ≤0.5 → refused unless projection > line (a 0.2-over-0.5 carries the SAME |edge| as the under, so it'd just take its board rank — refusing it is what actually clears the market). OVER with a genuine projection > line still grades.
- **Board layer** (`marketBreadth.collectBreadth`): drops null-model rows — a suppressed/ungraded prop can't rank a "MODEL —" placeholder onto the board.
- Suite 274/3289 green. Fingerprint: next MLB snapshot should have no rare-event u0.5 grades.

## BACKUP + FOUNDER CHECKOUT (2026-07-18, on main)
- **Task A — DB backup (SHIPPED; Kev cron+fingerprint on box)** `c2c43cd`: Dockerfile now has pg_dump/pg_restore/rsync; `backup-db.sh` validates every dump via `pg_restore --list` (must contain ledger_entries). Runs IN the API container (SUPABASE_DB_URL is there; WSL2 can't reach Supabase). Runbook = host cron `docker exec <api> sh /app/scripts/backup-db.sh`. **Mechanism fingerprint PASSED locally** (137 rows → dump → validate → restore → 137 rows). Kev: install the host cron + run the prod restore fingerprint.
- **Task B — founder checkout SEAT-GATED (SHIPPED)** `ccb9668`: `resolveCheckoutPrice` attaches the founder price while seats remain (< FOUNDER_SEATS_TOTAL, same `countFounderSeats()` truth as the meter), flips to standard at 100; meter shows SOLD OUT. Fixes "Claim a Founder Desk" charging $44.99 vs advertised $34.99. **payment_failed grace 48h→14d** (spans Stripe retries; revoke only on real cancel). Tested seat 0/99/100/null. Needs `STRIPE_PRICE_*_FOUNDER` set in prod for founder pricing to activate.

## SECURITY + PLUMBING FOLLOW-UP (2026-07-18, on main) — code shipped, migrations authored
Chrome ops session findings (Supabase advisor + Stripe). Code items shipped + fingerprinted; DB migrations authored for Kev to apply (no DB access from the box).
- **Item 0 (SHIPPED, fingerprinted)** `3b12c6c`: founder count = real active Stripe subs (`stripeService.countFounderSeats`), not DB tier fields. Phantom 1 (a comped profile) gone → prod now `available:false` (founder price IDs unset in prod env — set `STRIPE_PRICE_*_FOUNDER` to show the real 0).
- **Items 1,3,4,5 (AUTHORED — Kev applies in Supabase)** `78c1929`: `migrations/023_security_hardening.sql` (founder_pricing_seats → security_invoker; waitlist anon-INSERT-only; function search_path) + `migrations/024_anon_revoke_discoverability.sql` (revoke anon SELECT). Fingerprint = re-run Security Advisor.
- **Item 2 (SHIPPED — Kev sets env + cron)** `5f5c004`: `scripts/backup-db.sh` + `docs/BACKUP-RUNBOOK.md`. Needs `SUPABASE_DB_URL` (direct :5432 URI) in Coolify + the cron on the Hetzner box. Fingerprint = restore a dump + count ledger_entries.
- **Item 6 (SHIPPED — Kev activates portal in Stripe)** `889e862`: portal proxy + "Manage billing" button. Dunning verified: cancel-on-exhaustion → subscription.deleted → 48h grace → `gracePeriod.checkGracePeriod` revokes to free. Nuance: 48h grace on first payment_failed < Stripe's 2-week retry window (self-correcting).
- **Item 7 (SHIPPED)** `ae3cff9`: ESPN BET → theScore Bet (PENN) in books.js + ALLOWED_BOOKS; design HANDOFF flagged for the BookChip swap.

## TRUTH-EVERYWHERE PART 2 — COMPLETE (2026-07-18, on main, all 8 items fingerprinted)
Standing law: NO FABRICATED DATA ANYWHERE (UI, marketing, demos, examples). If it renders a number, it's from the DB or it doesn't render. Live data IS the better demo.
- **Item 1 — Verb law** (`66d52a9`): one verb, READ (never SCAN), swept every user-visible surface (FAB/nav/tier/ticker/upgrade). `tests/unit/verbLaw.test.js` enforces. Ticker "slate read" text flips at the next snapshot cron.
- **Item 2 — Founder counter** (`41fc2b9`): real active-paying-founder count from Stripe-synced user_profiles, cached; HIDES when unavailable. Live: **1/100** (was fabricated 47/100).
- **Item 3/4 — Reports**: full fabricated-data inventory + pricing claim audit (LIVE/PARTIAL). Alt-ladder/Kelly/correlation are LIVE in the engine; scratch-cascade + real-time-feed are PARTIAL.
- **Item 5 — Daily hero prop** (`9b9aab4`): live RULE = largest |model−consensus| gap, A/B only. Shows book line vs VYNDR model + real timestamp. Empty→most-recent-real; nothing→hidden. NO static Jokic fallback. `heroPropService` + `/api/hero-prop`. Live: Erica Wheeler 9.5 vs 14.2.
- **Item 6 — Desk showcase** (`cb3237c`): real alt-line ladder from the snapshot (edge guarded on small-line artifact); φ = real same-team correlation for two real legs or hidden; Kelly tile REMOVED (no odds → can't size honestly). `deskShowcaseService` + `/api/desk-showcase`. Live: Vandersloot ladder.
- **Item 7 — Accuracy → TRUTH** (`89a2977`): public 30D accuracy (`/api/accuracy` + `/api/ledger/accuracy`) now reads the CLEAN Postgres ledger aggregate (getModelAggregate/getAccuracyView, model_value>0), not the Redis outcome log. Number moved 67%→61%. **BEAT CLOSE suppressed** at source (`clvCaptureReliable()`) — see C4.
- **Item 8 — Blog** (`3b7a1f5`,`a8e383e`): wired the 5 REAL articles (content lives in `web/content/articles` — the runtime content root, NOT repo-root content/) with honest dates + markdown render + OG. Backdated 2026-03-22 orphan deleted + 301. Live: 5 articles serve.

### 🔴 C4 — CLV CAPTURE BROKEN (open, backend)
`captureClosing` re-records the LOCKED line as "closing" (closing_line == locked_line on the whole sample) → CLV is flat → BEAT CLOSE = a measured-wrong 0%. Suppressed on all public surfaces until fixed. Full write-up + fix plan: `specs/audit-data/clv-capture-broken.md`. Flip `CLV_CAPTURE_RELIABLE=1` after C4 verifies real closes.

## PHONE AUDIT PUNCH LIST — COMPLETE (2026-07-17, on main, deployed, fingerprinted)
Kev's 35-screenshot real-390px audit (signed-out + Desk signed-in). Worked top-down, fingerprinted the batch (compare "on current form" literal live in served chunk off `71e35e9`). Test baseline: 268 suites / 3239.
- **P0-1** blue-B/amber-C banished → token-derived grade badges (earlier batch).
- **P0-2** image pipeline (logos/headshots) `loading=eager` (earlier batch).
- **P0-3** player grouping/ladders across leaders/explore/ledger/breadth (`lib/playerGrouping.js`).
- **P0-4** mobile app bar collapsed to one line (ticker+heartbeat hidden <768, `MobileSyncClock`).
- **P1-5** 390px overflow containment (breadth rows stack, pitcher line wraps).
- **P1-6** (`ff0d3b1`) ONE freshness source: Slate "UPDATED" now reads the pipeline `refreshed_at` (the app-bar clock's field), not the client poll time — no more "0s ago" vs "SYNC 46:03" contradiction.
- **P1-7** (`d755b43`) flat edge board: an impossible `|edge|>40` is treated ABSENT at both data (can't rank a fake +140% over a real +8.4%) and display layers. Chips render now (P0-2). `EDGE_BOARD_SANE_MAX`.
- **P1-8** (`00537eb`) Compare verdict truth: no phantom "edge tonight" for July NBA(0) → "on current form"; cites what actually wins (scoring/boards/playmaking, not usage).
- **P2-9** (`77e8937`) leaderboard stat labels `web/src/lib/statAbbrev.js` (SB/ER/TB) + **FLAGGED** the backend grade degradation (below).
- **P2-10** (`71e35e9`) ledger read-card density (padding/margins tightened; archetype showDesc kept — it's inline, zero height cost).

### 🔴🔴 BACKEND FINDING — MLB GRADE PIPELINE DEGRADED (needs backend work, NOT frontend)
Diagnosed against live `/api/snapshot/mlb` (2026-07-17). Full write-up + do-not list: `specs/audit-data/mlb-grade-degradation.md`. Frontend guards (sane-edge cap, statAbbrev) are damage control, NOT the fix.
- **projection == 0 for 9/25** grades — the MLB feature path feeds 0 instead of refusing (S58 `insufficient_data`). This also breaks `computeEdge` → the broken edge_pct.
- **edge_pct on a broken scale** {20,60,100,140} — not a market %. Real prop edge is single-digit.
- **grade↔confidence mismatch on 25/25** — B shown at conf 55 (= the B- band per `grade_thresholds.json`); systematic one-sub-tier gap. The surfaced `confidence` is not the probability that derived the letter (likely the data-sufficiency penalty applied to display-only). This is the audit's "B at 45%" — NOT a frontend labeling or threshold bug; DO NOT re-letter/re-threshold on the frontend.

## DESIGN COMPLETION TRAIN — SUBSTANTIALLY SHIPPED (2026-07-16, on main, deployed) · ONE MASTER CHROME AUDIT PENDING
Goal: the live product matches Design's mockup at EVERY width. **HONESTY LAW: I cannot see rendered output (WSL2↔Chrome unreachable) — every visual change is "built to Design's spec, VISUALLY UNVERIFIED." Kev runs ONE master Chrome audit at the END (390px + desktop) against the running unverified list below; fixes propagate through tokens (surfaces inherit, don't fork).** Design package (3 revs) authoritative at `specs/design-reference/` (HANDOFF.md = entry point; `vyndr-system.html` desktop, `vyndr-mobile.html` 19 screens, `vyndr-landing.html`, `assets/glyphs/` 83 SVGs+MANIFEST).
SHIPPED + deployed:
- **Palette alignment** (`e0a26a8`,`c3d469e`,`ebaab00`): tokens → Design's EXACT ramp. **Grade colors corrected: B blue→WHITE #F0F0F0, C amber→GREY #B8BCC8, D #FF4757** (the old blue/amber violated DESIGN-SPEC's own "B neutral-bright, C muted"). Surfaces #0E0E14/#14141E, text #F0F0F0/#B8BCC8/#707080, borders #1E1E2A/#2A2A38. vyndrTokens + tests aligned. ShareCard/OG billboards grade-B white.
- **Glyph system** (`77d8fd6`,`771d8b0`): 44 archetypes render Design's REAL marks (83-mark set: 74 display + 9 classifier-legacy), front `lib/archetypes.js` + back `archetypeService.js` color-synced. ZERO generic placeholders left. Combat keeps its char-glyph namespace (separate test).
- **Entity layer VERIFIED already-complete** (DS0/Wave 2A/2B — the audit was stale): TeamLogo (real ESPN CDN, monogram fallback) on game cards/team hub; PlayerAvatar headshots MLB/NBA/WNBA + NFL/NHL resolver ready + soccer-monogram (blocked) + combat-no-photos; books via bookInfo/BookChip everywhere (fixed BookComparison holdout `1558710`); line-shopping surfaces (detectBestBook/MarketBreadth) self-deepen. No `$1M` copy.
- **Rev 3 matchup chips** (`f24f941`,`baf977f`,`bf8bf16`): `TeamChip` primitive (real TeamLogo at 10-12px + abbr, inherits row opacity) on StatStrip board rows, grade reveal, pitcher-vs. Game-card headers already had TeamLogo.
- **Mobile: M1a header collapse** (`a10227e`) · **M1b app-bar clock** (`7c7ab24`, Hybrid: wall clock rests, STALE reacts off refreshed_at) · **grade-reveal mobile** (`baf977f`, 74px hero) · **flat EDGE BOARD** (`8a24ac9` — Design's core mobile screen: NEW flat edge-ranked IA, `slateAdapter.flattenToEdgeBoard`+`MobileEdgeBoard`, shown <768px, cards ≥768px; threaded edge_pct through the pipeline) · **M4 structural locks** (`6bc9093`).
- **Key finding:** the 19 mobile screens were LARGELY already built (pages built to the SAME DS0-DS5/§7 contracts Design's mobile follows) → they already match structurally + stack on mobile. The genuinely-new work was the flat board (done) + narrow chip/hero polish.
REMAINING (all VISUAL, for the master audit): per-screen mobile polish of the ~17 already-built screens (blind, mostly Design-aligned) · M2 billboard crop-ratio verification (OG routes exist, colors fixed). Test baseline: 266 suites / 3214.

### 🔴 MASTER-AUDIT UNVERIFIED LIST (every visual change this train — Kev's one end-of-session audit)
1. **Palette** (biggest): grade B-white/C-grey/red-#FF4757 + full surface/text/border ramp — every surface inherits.
2. **Archetype marks + colors** — 44 archetypes render Design's real 83-mark set.
3. **Flat EDGE BOARD** at 390px — the core mobile screen (rows/opacity-ramp/chips/hero-edge%).
4. **Grade-reveal mobile** (74px hero + team chip) · **app-bar clock** (Hybrid) · **M1a header collapse**.
5. **TeamChip** on board rows / grade reveal / pitcher-vs (real logo at 10-12px).
6. **OG billboards** (ShareCard/player/u) grade-B white + text #F0F0F0.

## SHIPPED — HEARTBEAT + CADENCE + QUOTA-GUARD (2026-07-15, on main, deployed)
Three ships, each green + deployed. Standing authority is now PERMANENT full autonomy (three-gate floor: tests green, web build exit 0, post-deploy fingerprint of NEW code).
- **`7712f0a` Heartbeat honesty (fingerprint-verified live):** the "frozen snapshot / STALE 8h" was a MEASUREMENT bug, not a dead pipeline. `updated_at` = grade-LOCK time (advances 5×/day by design; grades never change in-game); the SYNC badge measured the 20-min `expected_interval_s` against it → structurally STALE. `refreshed_at` (the real 20-min intraday heartbeat) was written to Redis but NEVER serialized. FIX: full snapshot seeds `refreshed_at`, `/api/snapshot/summary` + GET `/:sport` expose it, `LiveLayer` badge measures from it. Fingerprint PROVED the pipeline was alive all along (`refreshed_at` advancing 20:20→20:40→21:00→22:00; the 22:00 full slot fired → scheduler healthy, re-armed fine after the 19:37 restart).
- **`4cd933d` + `2d413cf` Per-sport cadence (Job 1):** `src/config/sportCadence.js` (config-over-constants). REALITY-CORRECTED: mlb/nba/**wnba** all keep the full grid `14/19/22/1/3` (PropLine 9k/day = cheap; WNBA games span afternoon→late-evening, so 14 UTC/10am ET catches afternoon-game props — the earlier "drop it as waste" was wrong, corrected by observing 2 finished afternoon WNBA games on Jul 15). **Soccer alone is trimmed** to `14/19` + NO intraday — the genuine win, protecting the scarce odds-api key. Scheduler fires at HOURS_UTC and grades only `sportsForHour(h)`; only `intradaySports()` refresh.
- **`2d413cf` Quota guard (the real finding):** odds-api quota was EXHAUSTED 0/500 mid-cycle, unpaged. Root cause: `futuresService` (the only regular burner) used raw axios, BYPASSING the gateway → never hit `recordCall` (the ONLY place the WARN/BLOCK pager fires) → the counter reached 100% via silent header-sync. FIX: futures now routes through `gateway.fetch('odds-api', …)` (counted + blocked); a RESERVE floor (`ODDS_API_RESERVE`=50) refuses DISCRETIONARY calls (futures/soccer) while `remaining ≤ reserve` so they can NEVER starve MLB's essential prop-backup; `quotaTracker.syncFromHeaders` (authoritative) now ALSO fires the once-per-period alert; `POST /api/internal/quota/test-alert` test-fires the pager end-to-end. **Fingerprint caveat:** backend-internal, no unauthenticated public surface (`/api/internal/*` 401s for any path — auth runs before route-match); verify via authenticated test-alert (200=new/404=old) with the internal key.
- **odds-api 0/500 → BOTH soccer props AND futures are blocked on QUOTA, not code.** Kev's ruling: HOLD THE LINE (don't pay; zero-out-of-pocket). Soccer stays honest-empty; cadence is ready for the reset. Env: keep `API_FOOTBALL_KEY` (code reads it), delete inert `API_FOOTBALL_KEY2` (Kev handling). See memory [[odds-api-quota-soccer-blocked]]. Test baseline: 264 suites / 3195.

## SHIPPED — TRUTH-EVERYWHERE + OFFSEASON HUB TRAIN (on main, deployed)
Governed by `specs/truth-everywhere-train.md`. **The reframe that drove it: only MLB GRADED in prod (NBA/WNBA refused their whole slate — offline Python feature source, no fallback; soccer errored pre-grade). So grading, not settlement, was the first domino.** Standing deploy authority granted (green + fingerprint → merge + deploy, no ask). Waves DEPLOYED:
- **Wave 0 — NBA/WNBA GRADE (free ESPN gamelogs):** `espnStatsAdapter.getPlayerGameLog` feeds `featureCache` when the Python source is null → l5/l20 → props grade. **Verified live** (A'ja Wilson→B, Ionescu→C off real ESPN form). Endpoint `site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/{nba|wnba}/athletes/{id}/gamelog`.
- **Resolver-hardening:** roster-index primary resolver (206 WNBA / 544 NBA) + `?season=` gamelog retry — the real fix for dual-league (WNBA+NCAA) players who got an empty gamelog (Collier/Brionna Jones now resolve). Broad coverage.
- **Wave 1 — NBA/WNBA SETTLE:** `defaultGetPlayerStats` routes nba/wnba to the ESPN gamelog in BOTH `outcomeService` + `ledgerService`; separate `NBA_BOX_KEY`/`NBA_COMBO` settle maps; final-honesty guard (never settle in-progress); `opsWatch` finals-gated zero-settle alarm + per-sport boot announce. accuracy:{sport}+by_tier light up automatically. **PROOF is next-day** (grades lock tonight → settle tomorrow → `accuracy:wnba`).
- **Wave 2 — NEVER-DARK HUB:** ESPN `/news` wire (`newsService` + `/api/news/:sport`) — **verified live (real headlines)**; `NewsWire`+`FuturesBoard` on `/explore` (offseason-aware, self-hide on empty, futures "TRACKED · NOT GRADED"). **KNOWN GAP: `/api/futures/:sport` returns `markets:[]` for ALL sports in prod** — code path looks correct (odds-api `/sports/{FUTURES_KEYS}/odds?markets=outrights`); needs a live odds-api probe (ODDS_API_KEY) to finish. Self-hides honestly meanwhile. `FUTURES_ENABLED=0` kill-switch; 12h TTL; 1 credit/refresh.
- **Also rode along:** `espnAthleteIndex` cross-sport headshot capture (headshot-coverage) — NBA/WNBA/NFL/NHL real headshots when in-season.
DEFERRED (locked decisions): **soccer** — grade+settle path, needs `API_FOOTBALL_KEY` (VALIDATED, Free 100/day, active to 2027 — set it in Coolify env `API_FOOTBALL_KEY`; code dormant until wired) + ESPN-soccer-free-first attempt; **MMA moneyline settle** (combat not yet in the grade/lock loop); **NFL/NHL** (dormant, in-season later); **futures debug** (odds-api probe). Test baseline now **263 suites / 3183**.

## SHIPPED — WIRING & DATA TRAIN (on main `3b1aa9f`, deployed 2026-07-13)
Governed by `specs/wiring-data-train.md` + `specs/combat-intelligence.md` + the global visual reference `specs/design-reference/vyndr-system.html` (build toward it; live wordmark kept). **All 6 waves shipped + deployed** (fingerprint-verified: /parlay, /fight, /u/vyndr live; house record 88-38/70% real). Real assets verified live (MLB/ESPN headshot CDNs, ESPN-MMA feed, Baseball Savant CSV).
- **Wave 1 — trust bugs:** billing renewal honest render (`billingDisplay.classifyRenewal` — no far-future placeholder); James Wood nameKey-collision fixed (`mlbStatsAdapter` teamHint disambiguation + streaks join-invariant); DeskShowcase "$1M terminal" → deadpan copy.
- **Wave 2 — sport-agnostic entity layer:** real player headshots threaded from ingestion (MLB MLBAM + NBA/WNBA ESPN athlete ids that were fetched-and-discarded) across slate/scan/hotlist/search/grade card; soccer = honest monogram (no free id); 8 self-authored SVG book wordmarks (`web/public/books/*.svg`, swappable for official art) + all 10 book keys resolve; team-logo abbr aliases. Storage: id on the `enriched` grade at `snapshotService` (zero new I/O).
- **Wave 3 — record by grade tier (Addition 2):** ONE shared `TierRecord` (`lib/tierRecord.js` + component) on dashboard + /u + ledger; per-tier W-L always, hit-% only at n≥20 per tier (gate stays in `getModelAggregate`).
- **Wave 4 — missing surfaces:** Outlook mode (grid never blank → yesterday receipts / tomorrow schedule); Market-Breadth median-consensus-vs-model strip (self-hides <2 books); Parlay Lab `/parlay` (slate-independent leg source); live Grade-Shift timeline (`GradeShift`).
- **Wave 5 — /u house-mode + arsenal:** house handle `vyndr` surfaces the real `user_id=NULL` public model record + per-tier calibration + 1080×1350 portrait/OG (user-handle privacy 404s stay byte-identical); Baseball Savant pitcher-arsenal (`savantAdapter`, free CSV, verified) → `PitcherArsenal` card, self-hides on absent.
- **Wave 6 — combat v1 (MMA):** ESPN-MMA fight cards + tale-of-the-tape + style-blend archetypes (sport-scoped `COMBAT_ARCHETYPES` — FINISHER color collided w/ soccer + tripped the ΔE gate, so kept separate) + odds-api ML/round-totals + style-edge verdict. NOT in the snapshot/settle loop; method/round/props + fighter photos + matchup-GRADE engine + ufcstats scraping all DEFERRED, flagged data-limited in-UI. New routes: `/fight/[id]`, `/parlay`, `/u/[handle]/portrait`.
POST-MERGE TODO: NBA/WNBA headshot coverage + combat depth need prod runtime verification; soccer headshots blocked on `API_FOOTBALL_KEY`; combat settlement + matchup-grade engine are the next combat sub-wave.

## SHIPPED — DESIGN TRAIN v2 (merged to main `e9c0a59`, deployed & fingerprint-verified live)
Governed by `specs/DESIGN-SPEC.md` v2 (the raised standard: entities render as
themselves, color contract, sub-200ms, screenshot-first billboards). **All six
sessions DS0–DS5 shipped: merged to main, pushed to gitea, Coolify auto-deploy
LANDED — verified live via `/pricing` DeskShowcase ("A $1M terminal") + `/u`
route serving the unified EmptyState. 238 suites / 2885 tests green,
`next build` exit 0.** Post-ship TODO: re-run the Chrome design audit against
prod v2 to confirm all 22 audit findings closed (env here can't screenshot —
WSL2↔Windows-Chrome localhost unreachable).
- **DS0 Entity Layer** (`24af247`): `teamMeta.js` (real logos+colors for 30 MLB /
  30 NBA / 13 WNBA / 48 WC nations via ESPN CDNs), `TeamLogo` / `PlayerAvatar`
  (team-colored monogram fallback, no gray silhouette) / `BookWordmark`, swapped
  into GameCard/StatStrip/StreaksPanel/TeamHub.
- **DS1 Speed + Trust Bugs** (`1c681df`): React #418 hydration fix (mounted-flag
  guard), layout-matched `Skeleton`s replace text-wall loaders, scan→ledger
  persistence via `session.access_token`. **DS1 follow-up** (`cf91c04`): closed
  the sb-token trust-bug CLASS — `lib/authToken.js` `currentAccessToken()` reads
  the REAL Supabase session (not the OAuth-only `sb-token` key) across
  profile/slip/dashboard/settings/tracker.
- **DS3 Color Contract** (`49a3323`): `lib/colorContract.js` — green = one meaning
  (edge/A-tier/CTA), edge/CLV by sign, glow A/A+ only, archetype greens deduped.
  Enforced by `colorContract.test.js` (fails on violation).
- **DS4 Billboards** (`45bafbc`): STREAKS row (length as mono hero), grade reveal
  (sign-colored edge), CLV reframe (flat says so), `/u` public profile + OG.
- **DS2 Dashboard Slate Rebuild** (`fe294a5`): never-empty hero (falls back to
  yesterday's A-tier settled receipts), one bold hero per card, pending-filler
  collapse, ranked tonight-grades. `slateAdapter.js` engine + 21 tests.
- **DS5 Pricing + Motion + States** (`a18a3f3`): Desk $44.99 as the hero tier
  (single green CTA, `DeskShowcase`), ticker → punctuated stillness (≥4.2s hold,
  one idle motion), unified `EmptyState` (404 grammar) at TeamHub/game/ledger,
  archetype glyphs propagated to streaks/ledger.
NOTE: WSL2↔Windows-Chrome localhost is unreachable in this env, so visual proof
was SSR-render + source-assertion tests + live prod fingerprint curls, not
pixel screenshots. The `design/v2-train` + per-DS worktree branches can be
pruned. Stale `origin` GitHub remote still carries the long-dead leaked PAT —
deploy runs off `gitea`, so it's inert, but rotate it when convenient.



## WHERE THINGS STAND

**Tests: 2757 / 229 suites, all green. Web build exit 0.** Baseline at the A1
board's start was 2398. Governing docs: `specs/VYNDR-NORTH-STAR.md` (v1.1) +
`specs/VOICE.md` (v1.1) + `specs/ROW-GRAMMAR.md` — read them before building
anything.

**The record is live and writing itself.** Day one (Jul 11): 24→25 MLB rows,
real locks (line/odds/book), closing capture every snapshot + every 20-min
intraday refresh, settlement each morning slot with signed CLV. No percentage
renders anywhere under n≥20 — enforced in `ledgerService.getModelAggregate`,
the single gate. WNBA/soccer rows pend honestly until Phase 4.5.

## THE THREE A1 TRAINS (all merged to main, all pushed)

| Train | Range | Carried |
|---|---|---|
| #1 | `4d2b27d → 219167e` | S0 verify · S1 promise audit (`PROMISE-AUDIT.md`: alt ladder + quarter-Kelly BUILT, analyst unlimited, "40+" claims made honest) · S2 compliance (/responsible-gambling rebuilt, /terms /privacy drafts, /methodology, 5 seed articles in `content/articles/`) · S3 affiliate (BOOK IT deep links organic-until-config-flip, best-price dots, ?ref= partner attribution) · S4 media engine (`mediaEngine` + executable VOICE lint, `/desk` arsenal + DATA BRIEF, Ghost DRAFTS-only publisher) · S5 viability (statsapi lineups → CONFIRMED/NOT-IN kills grades visibly; ESPN injury wire; Yesterday/Today/Tomorrow nav + Settle panel) · S7 newsletter (Listmonk capture + THE VYNDR REPORT assembly, env-gated) · S8 ops (settle alarm, 3-slot failure pager, quota/disk/mem, 9AM pulse — test alert delivered to the real ntfy channel) · S9 slip reader (tesseract.js OCR + per-book parsers, /slip page; synthetic-image acceptance passed) · S10 public profiles (/u/{handle}, private-by-default, no-existence-leak) · migrations 021/022 |
| #2 | `219167e → 14dc9cf` | S6 display (ROW-GRAMMAR.md + slot-order fixes, line sparklines from intraday history, last-10 ●●○ dots, CLV distribution on MODEL tab, ⌘K SearchModal + mobile search, landing LCP fixes) |
| #3 | `14dc9cf → ec5ee3d` | S11 live tracking (statsapi/ESPN live box lines → ON PACE / NEEDS N / HIT ✓ in the outcome slot, live games float up, "TRACKING — READ LOCKED PRE-GAME"; real-live acceptance: Harper 3/1.5 TB ▼8th → HIT ✓). Grades never change in-game. |

**Deploy status:** ALL LIVE as of `17fb981` (Jul 12 17:43 UTC). Fingerprints
confirmed in prod: `/api/live/mlb` serves JSON with `hasLive:true` (S11 live
tracking working — a real game was tracked at confirm time), `/api/health`
healthy, `/api/snapshot/summary` → `expected_interval_s:1200` (env var now set).

**P0 postmortem (`17fb981`):** the API silently served a 14h-old image
(`4d2b27d`) from Jul 11 ~20:00 to Jul 12 17:43. Root cause: the Dockerfile
never copied `content/`, and `mediaEngine.js` read `content/stark-lines.json`
with an unguarded module-load `readFileSync` → ENOENT at require time crashed
`app.js`'s eager route chain (app → routes/desk → deskService → mediaEngine)
→ boot failed → Coolify healthcheck rolled back. Every merge from S6 onward
was merged-but-not-running for 14h. Fixed: Dockerfile COPYs content/;
mediaEngine treats the file as optional garnish (loadStark try/catch → {});
`src/preflight.js` now prints `[preflight] OK|DEGRADED` at boot so a missing
file/env is legible instead of masked by a rollback. LESSON: any module-load
file read is a boot-crash risk — keep them lazy + try/catch, and the
Dockerfile must copy every dir the runtime reads.

## LIVE INFRA MAP (verified in prod)

- **VYNDR Web** — Next.js :3000, vyndr.app. **VYNDR API** — Express :3001,
  api.vyndr.app (`/api/internal/*` behind `VYNDR_INTERNAL_KEY`).
- **Scheduler (in-process, API app, `SNAPSHOT_CRON=1`)** — snapshot slots
  14,19,22,1,3 UTC; settle pass (outcomes + ledger, idempotent) runs FIRST
  each slot; 20-min intraday odds refresh during slate hours
  (`INTRADAY_REFRESH=0` kills); desk-ready ping after the day's first slot;
  daily pulse 13:00 UTC; missed-cron + 3-slot-failure + quota pagers → ntfy
  `vyndr-pipeline-kev2026`. Boot logs: `[snapshotScheduler] armed` +
  `[settlement] armed`.
- **Data**: Redis (mastermind-cache) for all pipeline caches (SNAP_TTL 24h —
  do NOT shorten; the 11h overnight gap killed morning settles once).
  **Supabase = the ledger** (`ledger_entries` + `public_profiles` +
  `user_profiles.partner_ref`; RLS everywhere, service-role-only writes;
  migrations 001–022 applied, files in `supabase/migrations/`).
- **Deploys**: gitea `git.builtbykev.com/builtbykev/vyndr` → Coolify webhook
  (HMAC secret fixed Jul 11; auto-deploy proven). GitHub `origin` remote is
  dead-PAT hygiene debt only.
- **Free feeds** (zero out-of-pocket law): PropLine ×3 keys (9k/day capacity;
  intraday uses ≤144/day), odds-api backup (quota-gated), statsapi.mlb.com,
  ESPN site API. tesseract.js OCR self-hosted (traineddata caches on first
  call — needs outbound network once).

## ENV VARS STILL PENDING ON KEV'S SIDE (Coolify, API app)

1. `SNAPSHOT_EXPECTED_INTERVAL=1200` — **confirmed absent** (fresh restart
   still served the 18000 default). SYNC badge tracks intraday cadence once set.
2. `DESK_OWNERS=kevdevelops@gmail.com` — /desk 403s everyone until set.
3. `LISTMONK_URL` / `LISTMONK_USER` / `LISTMONK_TOKEN` / `LISTMONK_LIST_ID`
   (all four together) — newsletter no-ops politely without them; box-side
   setup in `docs/NEWSLETTER.md`.
4. Optional: `GHOST_URL` + `GHOST_ADMIN_API_KEY` (drafts), `PULSE_HOUR_UTC`.

**Entity placeholders** (S2, blocked on Kev's values): `[ENTITY NAME]`,
`[STATE OF FORMATION]`, `[ARBITRATION VENUE]`, `[CONTACT EMAIL]` in
`web/src/app/terms/page.tsx` (6×) + `web/src/app/privacy/page.tsx` (5×).
A test keeps unverified entity names out until replaced.

## HONEST OPEN ITEMS

- **Phase 4.5 — WNBA settlement via ESPN box scores. DUE ~Jul 24** (hard
  date). Until then WNBA/soccer/NBA ledger rows pend forever; accuracy = MLB only.
- **The record needs time**: no percentage anywhere before n≥20 settles, by
  design. First percentages expected ~day 3–4 of MLB volume.
- **Slip reader**: acceptance was a clean synthetic image; needs one real
  phone screenshot (DK) to validate OCR robustness.
- **Landing LCP**: S6's fixes are static-analysis-provable but unmeasured —
  run PageSpeed mobile vs the 3.8s baseline; next suspect is the
  LiveHeroProp post-fetch swap.
- **Partner report endpoint** returns real numbers only for signups AFTER
  migration 021 (metadata path live; OAuth signups carry no ref — known gap
  in `docs/PARTNERS.md`).
- **NBA Oct / NFL Sep readiness** + soccer end-to-end: `specs/vyndr-roadmap.md`.
- **Killed permanently** (founder ruling): AI chat assistant, light mode.

## OPERATING LAWS (never relax)

Zero out-of-pocket · absent beats wrong, refusal beats hollow · n≥20 before
any percentage · nothing auto-posts anywhere, ever · grades never change
in-game (revisions are public via `revised_from_grade`) · one meaning per
color, data in mono · no exclamation points, anywhere · the pipeline is the
only source of numbers, including in marketing (`mediaEngine` lint enforces).

— STATE as of ec5ee3d · the record is writing —