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Order Zero: book-breadth test + accrual clock correction (measure-only)

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STEP 0 disproved the premise before any request was fired. PropLine's
OpenAPI contract states verbatim that `bookmakers` omitted = ALL books,
so proplineAdapter omitting it is correct and always was. Firing a
guessed param would have RESTRICTED the response and produced exactly
the false negative the order warned about.

The real cause is ours: PropLine sends 18 books; oddsNormalizer
ALLOWED_BOOKS intersects them at exactly 5 -- which is precisely the
"5 MLB books" the 2.18 audit measured. Measured on real public data
(no key, no quota): 4.41 books/prop from the feed, 1.50 after our
filter, and 12 of 34 props go invisible entirely.

Also corrected: "73% single-book" is the long tail of deep props
sole-posted by DraftKings or Bovada. On the core props we grade, the
market is 10-12 books wide. pinnacle appears on 0 of 40 MLB props --
the independent low-vig references present on 100% of core props are
exchanges (novig/smarkets/kalshi). DFS pick'em also covers 100% but is
not a market price and must never enter a consensus.

Verdict is outcome (d) ALREADY OPEN, not (a)/(b)/(c) -- all three
assumed the feed was the constraint. Ruler change scoped (not built):
split one allow-list into takeable/reference/excluded, fair_prob_lock
becomes a median consensus with n>=2 or a labelled fallback. Gated on
exchange price validation + the WNBA measurement, which needs the
PropLine key (prod-only, absent locally). MLB isotonic p_win declared
PROVISIONAL until re-run on the real ruler.

Side finding: we use 1 of 29 endpoints. /odds/closing, /movement,
/odds/history, /best-line, /ev, /results, /exports/resolved-props,
/context (free) map directly onto documented gaps -- and resolution
across 33 sports suggests "no free settled feed for NBA/soccer" may be
a $19/mo problem, not a data problem. Documented, not verified.

Plan edits: §10.1 rewritten, §10.2/§10.5 corrected, and §11 adds the
sequential post-completion accrual clock -- pre-completion data does
not count, no pooling across the completion boundary, two clocks
stated separately, per-sport clocks, verification gate before any
accrual, users onboarded to a complete product only. §9.1's "6-10
weeks out" corrected: that is accrual duration, not distance to the
answer. The ruler change independently forces the same no-pooling
boundary by arithmetic.

No API key was used, printed, or committed.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01QJs13VsyiSKYQP6rj3NNmc
This commit is contained in:
Kev
2026-07-31 23:19:23 -04:00
parent c98338ef23
commit 293367917c
2 changed files with 456 additions and 11 deletions
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specs/MASTER-PLAN.md
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@@ -183,9 +183,22 @@ scaffolding around that. Building all 23 orders and *not* closing this leaves a
beautifully-built product that doesn't do the one thing it sells.
**What closes it:** not code. **Sample and honest iteration.** The instrument
fields are ~10 days old (442 rows). At ~90 decided MLB rows/week, a defensible
verdict is **6–10 weeks out**. That clock cannot be shortened by engineering, and
any attempt to shorten it is the fabrication this whole session has been removing.
fields are ~10 days old (442 rows). At ~90 decided MLB rows/week, that is ~6–10
weeks *of accrual*.
> **CORRECTED 2026-07-31 — see §11.** The "6–10 weeks out" above quietly assumed
> the clock is **already running**. It is not. Those 442 rows measure a model
> with a bent single-book ruler and six disconnected layers — **a model that
> will not exist once Phase 1 lands.** They do not count toward the verdict and
> **must not be pooled** with post-completion rows.
>
> The clock starts at a **verified** "running as intended" gate, per sport.
> **6–10 weeks is the accrual duration, not the distance to the answer.** The
> distance to the answer is *build time + verification + 6–10 weeks.*
>
> Independently forced by arithmetic, not just discipline: the §10.1 ruler fix
> changes the denominator, so pre-fix and post-fix edge/CLV numbers are not the
> same measurement.
## 9.2 The projection — the actual engine — is thin and unvalidated
The grade's only real inputs today are **l5/l20 averages, an opponent rank, rest
@@ -253,6 +266,35 @@ in two places.** Fix the data breadth and both halves improve at once.*
## 10.1 The one finding that reframes everything
> **CORRECTED 2026-07-31 by Order Zero — `specs/order-zero-book-breadth-test.md`.**
> The original text below blamed a missing `regions`/`bookmakers` param. **That
> was wrong.** PropLine's OpenAPI contract states verbatim: `bookmakers` …
> **"Omitted = all books."** Omitting it is correct and always was.
>
> **The real cause is ours.** PropLine sends **18 books**; `oddsNormalizer`
> `ALLOWED_BOOKS` (11 entries) intersects them at **exactly 5** — which is
> precisely the "5 MLB books" the audit measured. We discard 13 of 18 ourselves,
> and 6 of our 11 allow-list entries don't exist at PropLine at all.
>
> Measured on real public data (MLB `pitcher_strikeouts`, 5 complete events):
> the feed carries **4.41 books/prop**; after our filter, **1.50** — and **12 of
> 34 props become invisible entirely** (zero allowed books).
>
> Also corrected: "73% single-book" is the **long tail** of deep/reliever props
> sole-posted by DraftKings or Bovada. **On the core props we actually grade,
> the market is 10–12 books wide.**
>
> And a real negative: **`pinnacle` appears on 0 of 40 MLB props.** The one
> sharp book in our allow-list contributes nothing here. The independent
> low-vig references that *are* present on 100% of core props are **exchanges**
> — `novig`, `smarkets`, `kalshi` (+ `matchbook`, `polymarket`). DFS pick'em
> (`prizepicks`/`underdog`/`sleeper`/`dabble`) also covers 100% but is **not a
> market price** and must never enter a consensus.
>
> **So this is not a test to run. It is a build we can do: split one allow-list
> into takeable / reference / excluded, and make `fair_prob_lock` a median
> consensus across reference books.** No param, no cost, no tier, no new source.
**Our "market" is often ONE book.** MLB props are **73% single-book** (2.18 audit).
And `proplineAdapter` sends only `{ apiKey, markets }` — **no `regions`, no
`bookmakers` param** (`:152`). We take PropLine's *default* response.
@@ -264,17 +306,31 @@ That single fact causes four separate problems we have been treating as unrelate
3. **CLV is weak** — you cannot measure "beat the close" against one book's close.
4. **No steam/disagreement detection** — needs ≥2 books to even exist.
**So the highest-leverage unblocked action in the whole plan is a cheap API test:
does PropLine return more books with a `regions`/`bookmakers` param on our tier?**
It is one request. If yes, it upgrades the free product, the model's denominator,
and the CLV instrument simultaneously.
*(Items 1–4 stand. Only the **cause** was wrong — and the fix is cheaper than
the original diagnosis implied.)*
### 10.1b We use 1 of PropLine's 29 endpoints
Reading the full spec surfaced ten unused endpoints that map directly onto §10.2
and §10.3 gaps — `/odds/closing` ("the canonical CLV helper"), `/odds/history`,
`/exports/odds-history`, `/movement` (steam across all 16 books), `/best-line`,
`/ev`, `/results` + `/exports/resolved-props` (**resolution across 33 sports**),
`/context` (**free**: probable pitchers, confirmed lineups, home-plate umpire,
first-pitch weather), `/markets/hit-rates`, `/players/{n}/trends`.
Two overturn standing beliefs: **"NBA/WNBA/soccer have no free settled feed"** may
be a **$19/mo** problem rather than a data problem; and we hand-built probable
pitchers / depth charts / lineup confirmation that `/context` serves free.
**Caveat:** these are *documented*, not verified for our tier — that needs the
PropLine key (prod-only, absent locally). Do not plan on them as facts yet.
## 10.2 What a real DATA AGGREGATOR has that we don't
| capability | ours | gap |
|---|---|---|
| **Book breadth** | 5 MLB / 2 WNBA, 73% single-book | the category runs 10–20. **Root gap (10.1)** |
| **True consensus / no-vig line** | single-book de-vig | needs breadth first |
| **Book breadth** | 5 admitted of **18 sent**; 4.41→1.50 books/prop after our own filter | **not a feed gap — one allow-list (10.1).** Core props are already 10–12 books wide |
| **True consensus / no-vig line** | single-book de-vig | **unblocked now**: median across reference books (exchanges + pinnacle), n≥2 or labelled fallback |
| **Historical odds archive** | **STARTED** — `closing_captures` 844k rows, `lock_lines` (033) new, in-grade history capped at **24 points** | no full open→close series per prop. This is what makes CLV and backtesting real |
| **Market breadth** | 11 live markets | the category ships 50+ (alt lines, combos, innings, quarters) |
| **Alt-line ladders from books** | we *compute* a ladder; we don't *ingest* the books' | users shop rungs |
@@ -321,8 +377,11 @@ the work.
## 10.5 If I had to order it for "top product"
1. **Book breadth test + consensus fair line** (10.1) — one API call to find out;
upgrades aggregator, model denominator and CLV together.
1. ~~Book breadth **test**~~ → **Book breadth FIX + consensus fair line** (10.1).
The test is done (Order Zero). It is now a build: split `ALLOWED_BOOKS` into
takeable / reference / excluded, make `fair_prob_lock` a median consensus.
Upgrades aggregator, model denominator and CLV together. **Gated on** exchange
prop-price validation + the WNBA measurement (needs the PropLine key).
2. **Opportunity projection** (10.3.2) — the biggest genuine modelling gain.
3. **Per-stat distributions** — connect `distribution.js`, prove per stat.
4. **Connect the built layers** (Phase 1) — each proven on held-out or left off.
@@ -342,3 +401,98 @@ unfinished, but because **we have not measured it at adequate n on a market we c
trust.** Book breadth + the odds archive + accrued settlements are what make that
claim *possible*. Everything in §10 is in service of being able to make it — or of
being able to say honestly that we can't.
---
# 11. THE ACCRUAL CLOCK — SEQUENTIAL, POST-COMPLETION
*Kev's correction, 2026-07-31. Supersedes any "accrual runs in parallel with
building" framing anywhere in this document.*
## 11.1 The causality
You cannot meaningfully accrue until the product is **right and running as
intended** — model layers connected, ruler fixed (real consensus, not one soft
book), sports in, operating in the vision.
**Only then does the accrual clock start, and only then does time produce a
verdict. Building faster shortens the time TO clock-start. It never runs the
clock.**
The flawed assumption being removed: that today's half-connected model accrues
useful evidence while we build. It does not. That data measures a model that
**will not exist** after the layers are connected — a different model wearing the
same name.
## 11.2 Measurement rule (non-negotiable)
- Settled data accrued **before** completion does **NOT** count toward the edge
verdict.
- **NO POOLING across the completion boundary.** Pre-fix and post-fix are
different models — the same class of error as the model-version boundary, at
whole-model scale.
- The clock starts at **verified** "running as intended", not at "today".
## 11.3 Two clocks — stated separately so neither corner-cuts
**1. MLB-MODEL VERDICT clock.** Starts when MLB is genuinely complete: built
layers connected + honest consensus ruler + running as designed. Its accrued n
judges **MLB**.
**2. FULL-PRODUCT TRACK RECORD clock.** Starts when the vision is running:
sports in, aggregator built, operating as intended. Its accrued n judges **the
product claim**.
**Each subsequent sport gets its OWN clock**, starting when *that* sport's model
is complete — never when it is stubbed in. (Per-sport doctrine: a sport that
merely renders is not a sport that measures.)
## 11.4 "Complete" — defined honestly
A model/sport is **complete-enough-to-accrue** when its **built layers are
connected** and it runs against an **honest ruler** (real consensus), **operating
as designed** — *not* when every conceivable feature exists.
This definition is doing real work in both directions: it blocks the corner-cut
("close enough, start counting") **and** it blocks never-ship ("one more
feature"). The full-product claim additionally requires the vision's sports +
aggregator running.
## 11.5 The verification gate
**Between build and clock.** Before any accrual counts, verify — not assume —
that the product is running as intended:
- connected layers actually **fire** (present in the served payload, not merely
present in the repo)
- the ruler is a **real consensus** (`fair_prob_source: 'consensus_n'`, n≥2)
- the sport **settles correctly** (spot-checked against real box scores)
- surfaces are **honest** (no fabricated values; absent renders absent)
**This gate is verified, not assumed.** No accrual line item runs during the
build phases.
## 11.6 The 10-user track, reframed
Real users are onboarded to a **complete** product, so their usage teaches about
the real thing rather than a half-built one.
**We do NOT acquire users early to "start accrual."** That is the corner being
explicitly refused.
## 11.7 The finish line
```
build orders complete
↓
running-as-intended VERIFIED (§11.5 gate)
↓
clock starts (per sport, two clocks, §11.3)
↓
verdict reported honestly — including if it says the edge is not there
```
That last clause is the whole point. A clock you are willing to stop early is not
a measurement, and a verdict you are only willing to publish if it is favourable
is not a verdict.
specs/order-zero-book-breadth-test.md
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@@ -0,0 +1,291 @@
# Order Zero — BOOK-BREADTH TEST
**Date:** 2026-07-31 · **Type:** measure-only · **Live adapter: UNTOUCHED** ·
**Our API key: NOT USED** (measurement ran entirely on PropLine's *public,
unauthenticated* endpoints — zero quota spent, zero risk to the live feed).
---
## VERDICT UP FRONT
**The order's premise is disproven, and the finding is better than any of the
three anticipated outcomes.**
The `bookmakers` param exists, but **omitting it already returns every book.**
We are not being starved by the feed. **PropLine sends 18 books; we discard 13
of them ourselves**, in `src/utils/oddsNormalizer.js` `ALLOWED_BOOKS`.
> **Outcome (d) — ALREADY OPEN.** The constraint is one allow-list in our own
> code. No param, no cost, no tier upgrade, no second data source.
This is why Step 0 exists. Firing a guessed `bookmakers=` request would have
*restricted* the response and produced exactly the false negative the order
warned about — "doesn't open" — while the real cause sat in our repo.
---
## STEP 0 — THE PARAM, CONFIRMED FROM THE AUTHORITATIVE SPEC
Source: `https://api.prop-line.com/openapi.json` (200, 78KB, 29 paths) — the
OpenAPI contract itself, not a marketing page.
`GET /v1/sports/{sport_key}/odds` parameters:
| param | required | default | documented behaviour |
|---|---|---|---|
| `markets` | no | `h2h` | comma-separated market keys |
| `bookmakers` | no | *(none)* | **"Comma-separated bookmaker keys (e.g. 'draftkings,fanduel'). Omitted = all books. Matches the-odds-api's `bookmakers` param."** |
| `period` | no | *(none)* | full-game only unless set |
**`Omitted = all books.`** Verbatim from the spec. The param is a *filter*, not
an expander. `proplineAdapter.js:152` omitting it is **correct** and always was.
§10.1 of MASTER-PLAN said the missing param was the root cause. **That was
wrong.** Corrected in place.
---
## STEP 1 — THE MEASUREMENT
Two public endpoints, no auth, no key, no quota:
1. `GET /v1/freshness` — per-bookmaker ingestion health = **the real book universe**
2. `GET /v1/exports/sample` — "last 7 days of MLB `pitcher_strikeouts` as CSV…
no auth required" — **real resolved props with book, line, price, resolution,
actual value, and closing price**
### 1a. The book universe — 18 keys, all live
`/v1/freshness`, sampled `2026-08-01T03:13Z`, stale threshold 1800s:
| book | markets | staleness | in our `ALLOWED_BOOKS`? |
|---|---:|---:|---|
| draftkings | 487,182 | 16s | ✅ |
| **bovada** | **385,689** | 2s | ❌ dropped |
| betmgm | 166,171 | 119s | ✅ |
| betrivers | 151,845 | 12s | ✅ |
| pinnacle | 144,615 | 6s | ✅ |
| **novig** | 132,604 | 0s | ❌ dropped |
| prizepicks | 111,475 | 14s | ❌ dropped |
| unibet | 64,696 | 15s | ❌ dropped |
| **smarkets** | 39,113 | 8s | ❌ dropped |
| underdog | 33,632 | 66s | ❌ dropped |
| fanduel | 32,189 | 0s | ✅ |
| **kalshi** | 27,649 | 5s | ❌ dropped |
| **matchbook** | 24,682 | 5s | ❌ dropped |
| onexbet | 22,896 | 382s | ❌ dropped |
| **polymarket** | 17,347 | 1s | ❌ dropped |
| sleeper | 8,857 | 58s | ❌ dropped |
| tab_au | 6,183 | 45s | ❌ dropped |
| dabble | 4,409 | 51s | ❌ dropped |
**Not one book is stale.** The feed is healthy; the loss is entirely ours.
### 1b. The arithmetic that explains "5 MLB books" exactly
`ALLOWED_BOOKS` (11) ∩ PropLine (18) = **5**:
`draftkings, fanduel, betmgm, betrivers, pinnacle`.
**That is precisely the "5 MLB books" the 2.18 audit measured.** Cause
identified — it is a set intersection, not a coverage fact.
Two separate defects fall out:
- **13 of PropLine's 18 discarded by us.**
- **6 of our 11 allow-list entries do not exist at PropLine at all** —
`caesars, fanatics, bet365, hardrockbet, pointsbet, thescore`. They are inert
on the PropLine path. *(They are NOT dead code overall — the odds-api backup
path may still carry them. Do not delete them on this evidence.)*
### 1c. Per-prop breadth — MLB `pitcher_strikeouts`, 6 events, 2026-07-31
1,000 rows. 5 complete events / 34 props used for breadth (the 6th event is
truncated by the export's 1,000-row cap and is excluded — reporting it would
manufacture single-book props out of a row limit).
| | mean books/prop | single-book | props visible |
|---|---:|---:|---:|
| **PropLine sends (param omitted)** | **4.41** | 67.6% | 34 / 34 |
| **After `ALLOWED_BOOKS`** | **1.50** | 67.6% | **22 / 34** |
**Our filter costs 2.9 books per prop and makes 12 of 34 props invisible
entirely** (zero allowed books → the prop does not exist to VYNDR).
The distribution is **bimodal, and the shape is the real story**:
- **13 "core" props** (probable starters) — **10–12 books each**
- **21 tail props** — sole-posted: 13 by `draftkings` alone, 13 by `bovada`
alone, 1 by `onexbet`. These are deep/reliever props no one else prices.
The headline "67.5% single-book" is therefore **not** a statement about the
market for the props we actually grade. It is the long tail of one-book deep
props dragging the mean. **On the props that matter, the market is 10–12 books
wide.**
Book presence across the 13 core props:
| book | coverage | role |
|---|---|---|
| underdog, novig, sleeper, prizepicks, dabble, smarkets, kalshi | **13/13** | 3 exchanges + 4 DFS |
| draftkings, betmgm | **13/13** | ✅ ours |
| onexbet | 12/13 | offshore |
| fanduel | 12/13 | ✅ ours |
| betrivers | 10/13 | ✅ ours |
### 1d. The sharp anchor — a real negative
**`pinnacle` appears on 0 of 40 props.** It carries 144,615 markets globally but
**no MLB player props in this sample.** The one sharp book already in our
allow-list contributes **nothing** to MLB props.
What *is* present on 100% of core props: **`novig`, `smarkets`, `kalshi`** — and
`matchbook`/`polymarket` elsewhere in the feed. These are **exchanges**:
order-book priced, so near-zero vig. Arguably a *better* fair-probability
reference than Pinnacle.
**Stated as a hypothesis, not a fact:** exchange prop books are thinner than
their game-line books, and `kalshi`/`polymarket` are prediction markets whose
prop coverage is recent. Their prices must be **validated on real data before
being trusted as a ruler**, not assumed good because the theory is good.
### 1e. Three buckets, not one list — DFS is not a market price
`prizepicks, underdog, sleeper, dabble` cover 13/13 core props, but they are
**fixed-payout pick'em, not two-way markets.** Their lines are deliberately
shaded and their effective juice is flat. **They must never enter a consensus
fair price.** Admitting them "for breadth" would bend the ruler in a new
direction — the exact error this order exists to fix.
### 1f. Cost and tier
`/odds` returns **all books on the FREE tier**. Nothing about book breadth costs
money. Our quota (3 free keys × 1,000/day = 3,000/day) is unchanged by this.
Tier gates apply only to the *analytical* endpoints (§ below):
Free $0/1k-day · Hobby $9/5k · Pro $19/25k · Streaming Lite $39/100k ·
Streaming $79/1M · Enterprise custom.
### 1g. ⚠️ WNBA — NOT MEASURED
The public sample is **MLB `pitcher_strikeouts` only**. Every per-sport
alternative needs the API key, and **`PROPLINE_API_KEY_1/2/3` are absent from
the local `.env`** (prod/Coolify only).
**Do not assume WNBA mirrors MLB.** WNBA's book set is likely thinner and its
exchange coverage thinner still — which would tie directly to its
anti-predictive result. **This measurement is outstanding and needs one thing:
a PropLine key.**
---
## THE BIGGER FINDING — WE USE 1 OF 29 ENDPOINTS
While confirming the param I read the full spec. Several §10 "gaps" are not gaps
in the data — they are endpoints we never called.
| §10 gap | PropLine endpoint | tier |
|---|---|---|
| CLV instrument | **`/events/{id}/odds/closing`** — *"the canonical CLV helper"*, last snapshot at/before commence_time per (book, market, outcome) | Paid |
| Historical odds archive | `/events/{id}/odds/history` (`from`/`to`/`relative_to`/`interval`/`changes_only`) | Hobby+ |
| Bulk archive / backtest | `/exports/odds-history` — full tick firehose | Enterprise / one-time backfill |
| Steam detection | **`/events/{id}/movement`** — *"steam … computed across all 16 books we poll"* | Hobby+ |
| Line shopping | `/events/{id}/best-line` — best price per (market, player, line) + `all_prices` best-first | appears free |
| Cross-book +EV | `/events/{id}/ev` — no-vig via Pinnacle preferred, Bovada fallback | appears free |
| **Settlement for non-MLB sports** | `/events/{id}/results`, `/exports/resolved-props` (line, price, resolution, actual value, **closing price**) | Hobby+ / Pro+ |
| Park / weather / umpire / lineup | **`/events/{id}/context`** — probable pitchers, confirmed-lineup flag, home-plate umpire, first-pitch weather | **FREE** |
| Base rates | `/markets/hit-rates` | — |
| Player trend history | `/players/{name}/trends`, `/players/{name}/history` | Hobby+ |
Two of these overturn standing beliefs in `CLAUDE.md`:
1. **"NBA/WNBA/soccer have no free settled-result feed"** — PropLine *resolves
props across 33 sports* and exports them with actual values. Our
settle-nothing-but-MLB-and-WNBA constraint may be a **$19/mo** problem, not a
data-availability problem.
2. **We hand-built** probable pitchers, depth charts and lineup confirmation.
`/context` serves them, free, joined to the graded outcome.
**Caveat, stated plainly:** these are *documented* capabilities. I have verified
the **`bookmakers` contract** (a spec-level guarantee) and the **book universe +
per-prop breadth** (real data). I have **not** verified what these endpoints
actually return for our tier — that needs the key. Do not plan on them as facts
yet.
---
## STEP 3 — SCOPE OF THE RULER CHANGE *(scope only — NOT built)*
**1. Split one allow-list into three roles.** Today `ALLOWED_BOOKS` answers
"can we show this?" and "can we price against this?" with the same list. Those
are different questions and conflating them is what bent the ruler.
- `TAKEABLE_BOOKS` — a US user can actually bet here. Drives best-price,
line-shopping, `takeable`. *(today's list, minus nothing)*
- `REFERENCE_BOOKS` — the fair-probability ruler **only**; never surfaced as a
place to bet: `pinnacle, novig, smarkets, matchbook, kalshi, polymarket, bovada`
- `EXCLUDED_FROM_PRICING` — DFS pick'em (`prizepicks, underdog, sleeper,
dabble`) and offshore/intl (`onexbet, unibet, tab_au`). May be surfaced as a
separate DFS view; **never** in a consensus price.
**2. `fair_prob_lock` becomes a consensus.** Per-book two-way de-vig
(`devigTwoWay`, unchanged), then the **median** across reference books — median,
not mean, so one stale exchange cannot drag the ruler.
**3. Require n≥2 reference books, and label which ruler was used.** Below 2,
fall back to today's single-book de-vig and stamp
`fair_prob_source: 'consensus_n' | 'single_book'`. **Never silently mix the
two** — that pools two different rulers inside one column, the same error class
as pooling across a model-version boundary.
**4. Stamp a `ruler_version` at the boundary.** Changing the denominator means
**every edge and CLV number measured to date was measured on the old ruler and
cannot be pooled with post-change rows.**
**5. Gate the build on two things that do not exist yet:**
(i) exchange prop-price sanity validated on real data (§1d), and
(ii) the WNBA measurement (§1g).
---
## STEP 4 — MLB ISOTONIC `p_win` IS PROVISIONAL
**Declared explicitly:** the MLB isotonic `p_win` recalibration was measured
against the **bent single-book ruler**. It is **PROVISIONAL and GATED behind the
ruler fix.** It does **not** finalize or promote until re-run on the real
consensus ruler.
**Plan sequencing edit:** MLB promotion is **downstream** of the ruler fix, not
before it.
---
## WHAT CHANGED IN THE PLAN
- §10.1 rewritten — the param premise was wrong; the allow-list is the cause.
- §10.2 — book breadth reclassified from "needs a new source" to "one file".
- §10.5 — item 1 is now a **build we can do**, not a test to run.
- Accrual clock corrected to **sequential / post-completion** with a
verification gate (separate ride-in, §11).
**And the two interact:** the ruler change resets the denominator, so
pre-change settled rows cannot be pooled with post-change rows. That is an
*independent* derivation of Kev's sequential-clock rule — the no-pooling
boundary is forced by the arithmetic, not just by discipline.
---
## REPRODUCE
```bash
curl -s https://api.prop-line.com/openapi.json # the param contract
curl -s https://api.prop-line.com/v1/freshness # the 18-book universe
curl -s https://api.prop-line.com/v1/exports/sample # real resolved MLB props
```
All three are public. No key was used, printed, or committed.
## OPEN — needs one thing from Kev
**A PropLine API key** (it is in prod/Coolify, not in the local `.env`). With
it: the WNBA per-sport measurement, and live verification of the ten unused
endpoints above — including whether **$19/mo settles NBA and soccer.**