builtbykev 293367917c Order Zero: book-breadth test + accrual clock correction (measure-only)
STEP 0 disproved the premise before any request was fired. PropLine's
OpenAPI contract states verbatim that `bookmakers` omitted = ALL books,
so proplineAdapter omitting it is correct and always was. Firing a
guessed param would have RESTRICTED the response and produced exactly
the false negative the order warned about.

The real cause is ours: PropLine sends 18 books; oddsNormalizer
ALLOWED_BOOKS intersects them at exactly 5 -- which is precisely the
"5 MLB books" the 2.18 audit measured. Measured on real public data
(no key, no quota): 4.41 books/prop from the feed, 1.50 after our
filter, and 12 of 34 props go invisible entirely.

Also corrected: "73% single-book" is the long tail of deep props
sole-posted by DraftKings or Bovada. On the core props we grade, the
market is 10-12 books wide. pinnacle appears on 0 of 40 MLB props --
the independent low-vig references present on 100% of core props are
exchanges (novig/smarkets/kalshi). DFS pick'em also covers 100% but is
not a market price and must never enter a consensus.

Verdict is outcome (d) ALREADY OPEN, not (a)/(b)/(c) -- all three
assumed the feed was the constraint. Ruler change scoped (not built):
split one allow-list into takeable/reference/excluded, fair_prob_lock
becomes a median consensus with n>=2 or a labelled fallback. Gated on
exchange price validation + the WNBA measurement, which needs the
PropLine key (prod-only, absent locally). MLB isotonic p_win declared
PROVISIONAL until re-run on the real ruler.

Side finding: we use 1 of 29 endpoints. /odds/closing, /movement,
/odds/history, /best-line, /ev, /results, /exports/resolved-props,
/context (free) map directly onto documented gaps -- and resolution
across 33 sports suggests "no free settled feed for NBA/soccer" may be
a $19/mo problem, not a data problem. Documented, not verified.

Plan edits: §10.1 rewritten, §10.2/§10.5 corrected, and §11 adds the
sequential post-completion accrual clock -- pre-completion data does
not count, no pooling across the completion boundary, two clocks
stated separately, per-sport clocks, verification gate before any
accrual, users onboarded to a complete product only. §9.1's "6-10
weeks out" corrected: that is accrual duration, not distance to the
answer. The ruler change independently forces the same no-pooling
boundary by arithmetic.

No API key was used, printed, or committed.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01QJs13VsyiSKYQP6rj3NNmc
2026-07-31 23:19:23 -04:00
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