Order 1 of 2. Push scoring UNTOUCHED — it is correct. No healing here.
PHASE 1 — DATE-TARGETED FETCH replaces the rolling window for settlement.
settleSource.resolveOutcome() resolves the SPECIFIC DATE and, when the
player is absent, reads GAME STATE to learn what the absence MEANS:
game final + player has a line -> SETTLE (a partial game is a real
result, never a void)
game final + player absent -> VOID (confirmed DNP)
postponed / cancelled -> VOID
scheduled / in progress / SUSPENDED -> PENDING (a suspended game resumes;
voiding it would destroy a real bet)
player played, stat missing -> unknown, NEVER void a real appearance
This is FREE for MLB: mlbStatsAdapter.getPlayerGameLog already returned the
full season log and getPlayerStats was discarding it with .slice(-10).
Settlement now reads fullLog — same request, same cache — which removes
window-decay entirely (the verified failure was a Jul 12 game outside a
last10 starting Jul 6). Projections keep using last10, unchanged.
PHASE 2 — TERMINAL STATES (migration 026 applied). outcome CHECK widened to
hit/miss/push/void/unrecoverable; added settle_attempts, settlement_source,
settlement_version, model_version. A row that cannot be resolved after
SETTLE_ATTEMPT_CAP (4) date-targeted attempts becomes 'unrecoverable'
rather than pending forever. CRITICAL: getModelAggregate now EXCLUDES void
and unrecoverable from the settled selection — it used
.not('outcome','is',null), so without this a void would have counted as a
settled row and silently moved the public record. Verified in the record
calc, not just the settle path.
PHASE 3 — SETTLEMENT-RATE ALARM. zeroSettleAlarm only caught a TOTAL zero
while ~30% of a slate failed quietly (Jul 17: 57/86). opsWatch
.settlementRateAlarm pages when resolved/attempted falls below
SETTLE_RATE_FLOOR (0.8). Voids count as RESOLVED — a void is a legitimate
terminal state — so healthy voiding never pages. Third silent-failure
surface of the night, now closed.
PHASE 4 — VERSION STAMPING. src/config/modelEras.js defines the cutoff
ONCE (2026-07-19T22:50:00Z); migration 026 backfilled pre-cutoff rows as
'pre-retention-unknown' (naming the uncertainty, not implying knowledge);
new rows carry model_version.
Regression caught pre-deploy: getScheduleFn was not injectable, so the
ledger suite hit the real network and HUNG. Now injectable via opts and a
no-op under NODE_ENV=test. The "no row -> pending" test was updated to the
new behaviour deliberately: a missing row on a FINAL game now voids.
Suite 281/3373 green, build exit 0.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01SmNjJAwEnqHPtXbvSZR8kA
Kev's call: the 30D accuracy surfaces must read TRUTH, not a cache that can't be
filtered. My earlier degraded-row exclusion only touched getModelAggregate
(Postgres); the public buckets/badge still read outcomeService (Redis outcome
log), which counts degraded projection-0 outcomes and has no field to filter on.
- /api/accuracy (AccuracyBadge) + /api/ledger/accuracy (buckets/ModelRecord)
now source from the clean Postgres ledger aggregate via new
ledgerService.getAccuracyView + accuracyBucketsFromAgg (model_value > 0
excludes degraded rows). Same response shapes → no frontend change. Redis
outcome log is now read by nothing public; it can age out or be rebuilt.
- BEAT CLOSE is a MEASURED-WRONG ZERO: captureClosing re-records the locked line
as the "closing" line, so clv is flat on the whole sample and beat_close reads
0% (comparing a number to itself). Full write-up: specs/audit-data/
clv-capture-broken.md (the fix belongs to C4). Until then, beat_close_pct +
clv_distribution are SUPPRESSED at the source (getModelAggregate, gated by
clvCaptureReliable() / CLV_CAPTURE_RELIABLE=1). Every public surface already
renders BEAT CLOSE only when non-null, so they all hide it now — no wrong zero
anywhere. HIT RATE (real) is unaffected.
Suite 271/3261 green, web build exit 0.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
The degraded grades (projection=0 → model_value=0) are already settled in the
append-only ledger and must NOT be deleted (Data Semantics law). But their
hit/miss is noise, not model skill — they never had a real projection. So
getModelAggregate now filters `.gt('model_value', 0)` on both the settled and
pending queries: the rows stay in ledger_entries, but leave the public hit_pct /
CLV / per-tier record. `.gt` also drops NULL model_value. Post-fix no such row
can be written (projection<=0 refuses), so this only sheds the historical set.
This is the functional form of the "marking" the work order asked for — the
degraded locks are effectively marked as non-counting without mutating history.
Test builder mocks gained `.gt`; a lock asserts the filter is applied to both
queries. Suite 269/3253 green, web build exit 0.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Addition 2 (non-negotiable): the model's record must show PER GRADE TIER
(A+ went X-Y, A X-Y, …) everywhere the record appears. A blended % hides the
proof that higher grades win more — the tier calibration IS the credibility.
The backend already computed `by_tier` in getModelAggregate; this is display
propagation via ONE shared component (the class fix, not five one-offs).
- web/src/lib/tierRecord.js — testable CommonJS row-builder. W-L counts ALWAYS
(honest at any n); hit-% only when the upstream n≥20 gate passed (hit_pct !=
null), else "RECORD BUILDING · N settled". Order A+ A B C D F. A-tier is the
only edge (green) tier — no glow below A, red reserved for outcomes.
- web/src/components/vyndr/TierRecord.tsx — the ONE shared table. Presentational
(byTier) for /u + ledger; self-fetch (/api/ledger/model, sport-scoped) for the
dashboard. Fully self-hides until a tier has a settled read.
- Ledger swaps its inline TierCalibration for the shared component (single
source). /u PublicProfile renders it below the blended hero (by_tier added to
the aggregate type; it already flows through the route + proxy untouched).
Dashboard gains a compact per-tier surface.
- Endpoint/proxy audit: profiles.js + ledger.js return the full aggregate
(by_tier included); both Next proxies pass the body through — no threading
needed. No change to the gate or math in getModelAggregate.
Tests: tests/unit/tierRecord.test.js (row logic + tier order + edge contract +
source-assert all three surfaces render the shared component). ledgerService
test gains an A+-stands-alone bucketing case. Full suite green (243 suites /
2961 tests); web next build exits 0.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
- specs/ROW-GRAMMAR.md: the row grammar law (slot order, color law, mark
law, mobile stacking, no-truncation), locked by tests/unit/rowGrammar.
StatStrip violations fixed: MovementChip before the grade (market
context before model output); ViabilityChips after the archetype
(identity is one contiguous run).
- Line-movement sparklines: intradayRefreshService.trackHistory captures
real {t,line} points per grade (seeded with the lock, deduped when
flat, capped 24) inside the snapshot write-back; StatStrip.LineSparkline
renders at >=3 points (green toward / amber against / dim flat).
- Last-10 dot strips: services/last10Dots (streaksService accessors) ->
/api/snapshot/:sport attaches last10_dots from rosterlogs:{sport};
StatStrip.DotStrip renders vs the LOCKED line, newest first.
- CLV distribution: getModelAggregate emits clv_distribution (7 signed
buckets, outliers clamped) only past the centralized n>=20 gate;
ledger MODEL header renders the bar strip.
- Global search: SearchModal (cmd-K via GlobalHosts + window.__search),
players via /api/players/search per sport + static lib/teams.js
(soccer deliberately absent); Nav search icon + Search first in the
mobile More sheet. Explore tab untouched.
- Landing LCP: fade-up floored at opacity .6 (hero h1 contentful on
first frame, S33 visible-floor rule) + IBM Plex Mono preload:false
(4 decorative font files off the slow-4G critical path).
2654 -> 2698 tests (226 suites) green; web build exit 0.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
1. [settlement] armed boot line — settlement WAS scheduled (the tick runs
settleAllOutcomes + settleAllLedgers FIRST at every snapshot slot,
src/snapshotScheduler.js) but was invisible at boot. Now verifiable
from logs forever.
2. Null locked_odds root cause (4 day-one rows, all betmgm SB unders):
genuinely absent in the DB — the first-seen book row carried no juice
for that side. indexOdds/indexProps now PREFER a book row with both
sides priced (still a real row, never synthesized). Display was
correct: absent beats wrong.
3. Verified retry-safe: 'Odds data temporarily unavailable' is the
odds-api quota gate (oddsService:423) — thrown BEFORE any spend or
cache write; runSnapshot errors write nothing; the next cron retries
fresh with PropLine first.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
5.1 Archetype defined on-page: one line from the archetype library under
ARCHETYPE DNA (BOMBER — elite raw power…); expander keeps the long form.
5.2 VYNDR-on-team live: getModelAggregate team scope (migration-020 column)
+ /api/ledger/model?team= + ModelRecord mounted on the Team Hub header.
5.3 WNBA/NBA profile parity: minutes-based usage (+MIN season cell) when
the feed carries minutes — absent beats invented.
5.4 Settings read meter: real rolling-24h usage from the SAME store the
limiter enforces (GET /api/user/scan-meter + proxy). Metered tiers see
'X of N reads today' + bar; unlimited tiers see nothing. Corrects the
stale '5 scans / month' copy.
5.5 Per-tier calibration on the MODEL tab: A+/A/B/C chips with hit% at
n>=20 PER TIER, 'building (n/20)' below — the separation between tiers
is the proof the grades mean something.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Overnight sprint for the Saturday 10 AM ET deploy gate — day one of the
public ledger record locks against freshly posted lines.
Task A — ledger team/opponent (migration 020, applied at 0 rows):
populated in both write paths from the real feed; opponent only when the
player's team matches a game participant (never guessed). Roadmap: Phase
4.5 WNBA ESPN-boxscore settlement (due ~Jul 24) + Phase 5 per-tier
calibration logged.
Task B — work-order 1.6 CLOSED (canonical player keys):
- searchPlayer resolves via nameKey; the old matcher deleted accents
("Sanchez" with acute -> "snchez") and substring-guessed onto the WRONG
player (the mismatched last-10 bug). Ambiguous -> null, never guess.
- Slate JOIN INVARIANT: a graded prop whose player's real team isn't in
the game is dropped (TB player can't render under MIL@PIT) — locked by
tests that fail the suite on regression.
- grades:{sport} TTL 2h -> 6h (expired between 5h cron gaps — the real
cause of /team "No active props" for slate players).
Task C — Phase 2 slate UX: tabs are THE filter (URL ?sport=, deep-linkable,
duplicate legacy tablist removed); cards cap at 6 graded props sorted
A+->F with ALL N READS in-place expander; waiting states show the real
next pipeline run ("Grades post ~6:00 PM ET").
Task D — Phase 3 mobile P0: root cause of vanished 390px nav was HIDE_ON
including '/' (landing had zero navigation) — fixed; html/body overflow-x
contained; GAME LINES collapses to best-line summary + "N BOOKS" expander
below 640px; venue drops before time/pitchers ever truncate.
Live verification: raw ESPN today STILL returns the Jun 13 NYK@SA Finals
game without a date pin; the pinned fetch returns 0 games, 0 off-date.
Backend 2327 -> 2352 tests (202 suites), web build exit 0.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
ledger_entries is live (migration 019 applied to prod, RLS + NULLS NOT
DISTINCT dedupe verified against the real database). Every grade now
persists, settles against the real result, and carries closing-line value.
- ledgerService: pipeline pre-grade upserts (public model record, user_id
null, idempotent), closing capture on every snapshot (last write before
game start = the close), settlement with SIGNED CLV (over = locked -
closing; beat/faded/flat), 30d model aggregate with the hard n>=20 rule.
- Write paths: snapshotService -> ledger (priority path); Next /api/scan ->
ledger for authenticated users only (anon never touches the public
record). Refused reads write nothing and don't burn a scan.
- Honest refusal (work-order 1.5): no projection => insufficient_data,
grade null, "INSUFFICIENT DATA - no read" UI. The web gradeAdapter no
longer displays the line as the model projection (the audit's
model==line / +0% edge degenerate); the card renders absent states.
projectionFor is sport-aware (l5 -> l20 -> {stat}_per_90 -> xG).
- /ledger: MY READS | MODEL tabs; model header shows hit% + beat-close%
only at n>=20, else RECORD BUILDING + live pending count. ModelRecord
deferred-render strip on landing + player hero. CLV + outcome chips,
revised_from_grade strikethrough (Phase 2.5 ready).
- SYNC (Task 5): thresholds vs SNAPSHOT_EXPECTED_INTERVAL (normal <1.5x,
amber >=1.5x, STALE red >=3x) via /api/snapshot/summary.
- Phase 2.5 logged in specs/vyndr-roadmap.md (build after Phase 3).
- Data-semantics hardening: strict null-safe numeric parsing everywhere a
market value is handled (Number(null)===0 would have fabricated lines).
Backend 2309 -> 2327 tests (201 suites), web build exit 0.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
builtbykev