Accrual watch + pre-registered resumption; the program is idle on modeling

PHASE 1 — the existence risk is resolved. Nineteen commits were local-only
with no push credentials. Three artifacts now exist off the working tree:

  ~/vyndr-full-history-2026-08-07.bundle   6.8M  SELF-CONTAINED, clone it
  ~/vyndr-session-2026-08-07.bundle        244K  needs existing history
  ~/vyndr-session-patches/  (20 patches)   1.5M

Use the full-history bundle -- `git bundle verify` shows the session bundle
requires ref 6452926, so it only applies onto a repo that already has this
history. The full one clones standalone. Copying one off the machine is
the top non-accrual action item.

PHASE 2 — the watch, today's starting line: 0 eligible rows, 0 eligible
dates, everything WAITING. Zero is correct, since the repair ships in this
session's commits and no settled row can carry the marker yet.

THRESHOLDS ARE ATTEMPT FLOORS, NOT TRUST FLOORS, and this is written into
the ledger so a future session cannot misread it. Reaching 10 dates means
the calibration re-fit CAN BE MEASURED, not that it is trustworthy -- we
lived that distinction tonight with 2-4 cluster CIs, a LODO gate at
1.4-9.3% power, and a >=40 bar that was right for promotion and wrong for
deploy. A 10-date map is thin, deploys PROVISIONAL with auto-demotion, and
its interval will still be wide.

Real-time estimates stated so the wait reads as designed: ~2 weeks for
calibration and hits lift, 3+ weeks for the verdict re-audit and the rbi
gate, since rbi accrues slowest and a date only counts once its props
settle.

PHASE 3 — resumption order fixed, triggered purely by date thresholds:
calibration re-fit @10, hits composed-lift re-measure @10 (the 1.39%
figure is VOID, direction unknown), prior verdict re-audit @14 (not
pre-priced), rbi lineup-slot two-part gate @14. FIRST TRIGGER: when
reAuditEligibility reports 10 eligible calibration dates.

Until then the program is honestly IDLE on modeling. That is the correct
state, not a gap to fill -- the alternative is measuring on reconstructions
of a retired forecast, which this program has now refused by name three
times.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01W1sivYNqY2TS5ftykmHBU9

.gitignore

@@ -27,3 +27,5 @@ out/
 
 # Vercel
 .vercel/
+
+.seq-cache/

BUILD-STATE.md

@@ -5133,3 +5133,40 @@ Complete frontend overhaul. 18 pages, 22 API routes. `npm run build` passes with
   - Timestamped records in evolution_detections table, Evolution Watch content formatter
 - **Migration 008:** coaching_tendencies, player_out_history, evolution_detections, unconventional_validations (all with indexes + RLS)
 - **Integration:** 3 new blueprints registered in app.py (coaching_bp, redistribution_bp, unconventional_bp), evolution + odds_scanner extended with new endpoints
+
+
+---
+
+## Session — Under-querying vs out of data (2026-08-05)
+
+**Shipped**
+- `scripts/backfill-context.js` — platoon splits backfilled to all 380 settled
+  hitters (was 298; ingest had only ever seen tonight's lineups).
+- `scripts/reconstruct-game-environment.js` — joins the ledger's game slug to
+  statsapi, writes `game_context` on the LEDGER's key, pulls actual archived
+  Open-Meteo weather. 96/101 settled games now carry real weather; park
+  dimensions 15 -> 30 venues.
+- `src/services/model/parkWeather.js` (+ tests) — park geometry + air read onto
+  HIT TYPE, not P(hit). Wind refused (no park orientation).
+- `factorGate` — cluster-aware bootstrap + `effective_n`. Unclustered rows keep
+  the original path byte-for-byte.
+- `specs/under-querying-vs-out-of-data.md` — the full record.
+
+**Decided**
+- `pitcher_contact_profile` DEMOTED: point estimate halved on 2x sample, interval
+  now spans zero.
+- `platoon` / `platoon_severity` clear the bar but are NOT promoted — 4.5% median
+  contamination (season-to-date splits contain the games they predict) on a
+  -0.0001 bound.
+- Park+weather on total_bases: 47 clusters < 500, point estimate WORSE (+0.0011).
+
+**Next**
+- Weather is reachable: ~57 days at 7 games/settled-day.
+- Park geometry is NOT — 30 ballparks exist, so a venue-constant factor can never
+  reach 500 independent units. Needs a hierarchical fixed-effect treatment or it
+  stays unvalidatable.
+- Point-in-time platoon splits would settle the two held passes.
+- Park orientation is the one column that would unlock wind.
+
+**Blocker**
+- `git push` has no credentials in this environment; commit `7b85934` is local.

scripts/backfill-context.js

@@ -0,0 +1,103 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env node
+'use strict';
+
+/**
+ * backfill-context — WERE WE WAITING, OR UNDER-QUERYING?
+ *
+ * The platoon test ran on 452 rows against 1,266 clean settled hits rows in the
+ * ledger, so "48 short of the gate" was never a statement about how much data
+ * exists. It was a statement about how much the JOIN survived — and the join was
+ * losing rows to inputs we simply had not fetched for every player.
+ *
+ * This backfills the inputs (pure sample, zero waiting) and reports exactly
+ * where each row is lost, so the next "we need more data" claim is a measured
+ * one rather than an inherited one.
+ *
+ * ── THE ONE HONEST CAVEAT, STATED UP FRONT ───────────────────────────────
+ * Platoon splits from statsapi are SEASON-TO-DATE as of the moment they are
+ * fetched. Applying today's split to a 2026-07-15 game means the split contains
+ * that game. For a ~400-PA season line one game is roughly a quarter of one
+ * percent, so the contamination is small — but it is real, it runs in the
+ * flattering direction, and it is why this is labelled a reconstruction rather
+ * than a clean point-in-time backtest.
+ *
+ *   SUPABASE_URL=... node scripts/backfill-context.js
+ */
+
+require('dotenv').config();
+const { createClient } = require('@supabase/supabase-js');
+const ctx = require('../src/services/lineupContextService');
+const mlb = require('../src/services/adapters/mlbStatsAdapter');
+const { knownNumber } = require('../src/utils/known');
+
+const SB_URL = process.env.SUPABASE_URL;
+const SB_KEY = process.env.SUPABASE_SERVICE_ROLE_KEY || process.env.SUPABASE_SERVICE_KEY;
+const SEASON = Number(process.env.BF_SEASON || 2026);
+const PAGE = 1000;
+
+async function page(sb, table, select, apply) {
+  const out = [];
+  for (let from = 0; ; from += PAGE) {
+    const { data, error } = await apply(sb.from(table).select(select)).range(from, from + PAGE - 1);
+    if (error) throw error;
+    if (!data || data.length === 0) break;
+    out.push(...data);
+    if (data.length < PAGE) break;
+  }
+  return out;
+}
+
+async function main() {
+  if (!SB_URL || !SB_KEY) throw new Error('SUPABASE_URL / service key required');
+  const sb = createClient(SB_URL, SB_KEY, { auth: { persistSession: false } });
+
+  // Every hitter who appears on a CLEAN settled row — the true denominator.
+  const led = await page(sb, 'ledger_entries', 'player_key, player_name, stat, outcome, quarantine_reason',
+    (q) => q.eq('sport', 'mlb').is('user_id', null).in('stat', ['hits', 'total_bases'])
+      .in('outcome', ['hit', 'miss']));
+  const need = new Map();
+  for (const r of led) {
+    if ((r.quarantine_reason || '').startsWith('nontakeable_book')) continue;
+    if (!need.has(r.player_key)) need.set(r.player_key, r.player_name);
+  }
+
+  const have = new Set((await page(sb, 'platoon_splits', 'player_key', (q) => q.eq('sport', 'mlb')))
+    .map((r) => r.player_key));
+  const missing = [...need.entries()].filter(([k]) => !have.has(k));
+
+  console.error(`[backfill] hitters on clean settled rows: ${need.size}; splits already held: ${have.size}; to fetch: ${missing.length}`);
+
+  const asOf = ctx.dateET();
+  const rows = [];
+  let unresolved = 0;
+  for (const [key, name] of missing) {
+    let found = null;
+    try { found = await mlb.searchPlayer(name); } catch { found = null; }
+    if (!found || !found.id) { unresolved += 1; continue; }
+    const sp = await ctx.fetchPlatoonSplits(found.id, SEASON, {});
+    if (!sp) continue;                       // absent, never a symmetric guess
+    rows.push({ player_key: key, player_name: name, source_id: found.id, ...sp });
+  }
+
+  let written = 0;
+  for (let i = 0; i < rows.length; i += 200) {
+    const batch = rows.slice(i, i + 200).map((r) => ({ ...r, sport: 'mlb', season: SEASON, as_of_date: asOf }));
+    const { error } = await sb.from('platoon_splits')
+      .upsert(batch, { onConflict: 'as_of_date,sport,season,player_key' });
+    if (!error) written += batch.length;
+    else console.error('[backfill] write failed:', error.message);
+  }
+
+  console.log(JSON.stringify({
+    hitters_on_clean_settled_rows: need.size,
+    splits_held_before: have.size,
+    attempted: missing.length,
+    unresolved_by_name: unresolved,
+    no_splits_available: missing.length - unresolved - rows.length,
+    written,
+    caveat: 'season-to-date splits applied to past games contain those games — small (~0.25% of a 400-PA line) but real and flattering',
+  }, null, 2));
+  process.exit(0);
+}
+
+main().catch((e) => { console.error(e); process.exit(1); });

scripts/build-grade-bands.js

@@ -0,0 +1,100 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env node
+'use strict';
+
+/**
+ * build-grade-bands — publish what each letter actually means, per archetype.
+ *
+ * Runs the real settled ledger through gradeBands. Because no factor has passed
+ * the gate for any archetype, every band comes back a BASE-RATE read — which is
+ * the honest answer today, and the output states it rather than leaving a reader
+ * to infer it.
+ *
+ *   SUPABASE_URL=... node scripts/build-grade-bands.js
+ */
+
+require('dotenv').config();
+const { createClient } = require('@supabase/supabase-js');
+const gb = require('../src/services/model/gradeBands');
+const tl = require('../src/services/model/testLedger');
+const cal = require('../src/services/model/calibration');
+const { knownNumber } = require('../src/utils/known');
+
+const SB_URL = process.env.SUPABASE_URL;
+const SB_KEY = process.env.SUPABASE_SERVICE_ROLE_KEY || process.env.SUPABASE_SERVICE_KEY;
+const STAT = process.env.BAND_STAT || 'hits';
+const PAGE = 1000;
+
+/**
+ * PROVEN, PER ARCHETYPE. Empty, and that is the measured state — see
+ * specs/per-archetype-re-audit.md. Nothing may be added here that has not
+ * cleared the gate FOR THAT ARCHETYPE; pooled proof does not qualify a slot.
+ */
+const PROVEN_BY_ARCHETYPE = Object.freeze({});
+
+async function page(sb, table, select, apply) {
+  const out = [];
+  for (let from = 0; ; from += PAGE) {
+    const { data, error } = await apply(sb.from(table).select(select)).range(from, from + PAGE - 1);
+    if (error) throw error;
+    if (!data || data.length === 0) break;
+    out.push(...data);
+    if (data.length < PAGE) break;
+  }
+  return out;
+}
+
+async function main() {
+  const sb = createClient(SB_URL, SB_KEY, { auth: { persistSession: false } });
+
+  const snaps = await page(sb, 'model_snapshots', 'player_key, game_date, archetype, stat',
+    (q) => q.eq('sport', 'mlb').eq('stat', STAT).not('archetype', 'is', null));
+  const archOf = new Map();
+  for (const s of snaps) archOf.set(`${s.player_key}|${s.game_date}`, s.archetype);
+
+  const led = await page(sb, 'ledger_entries', 'player_key, game_date, outcome, p_win, quarantine_reason',
+    (q) => q.eq('sport', 'mlb').is('user_id', null).eq('stat', STAT)
+      .in('outcome', ['hit', 'miss']).not('p_win', 'is', null));
+  const clean = led.filter((r) => !(r.quarantine_reason || '').startsWith('nontakeable_book'));
+
+  const byArch = new Map();
+  for (const r of clean) {
+    const a = String(archOf.get(`${r.player_key}|${r.game_date}`) || 'UNLABELLED').toUpperCase();
+    if (!byArch.has(a)) byArch.set(a, []);
+    byArch.get(a).push({ p: knownNumber(r.p_win), won: r.outcome === 'hit' ? 1 : 0 });
+  }
+
+  const mc = await tl.recordAndCount(tl.supabaseStore(sb),
+    [...byArch.keys()].map((a) => ({
+      sport: 'mlb', stat: STAT, archetype: a === 'UNLABELLED' ? null : a,
+      interaction: 'grade_band_lift', target: 'outcome',
+    })));
+
+  // Calibration is measured, not assumed. Today it is certified for hits only in
+  // a middle band (specs — held-out error 0.477->0.506, 0.587->0.580), which is
+  // NOT the same as an archetype's probabilities being calibrated.
+  const certified = typeof cal.certifyBands === 'function';
+
+  const out = [];
+  for (const [arch, rows] of [...byArch.entries()].sort((a, b) => b[1].length - a[1].length)) {
+    out.push(gb.buildBands(rows, {
+      archetype: arch,
+      cumulativeTests: mc.cumulative_tests,
+      proven: Boolean(PROVEN_BY_ARCHETYPE[arch]),
+      calibrated: false,        // no archetype's distribution is certified calibrated
+    }));
+  }
+
+  console.log(JSON.stringify({
+    stat: STAT,
+    settled_rows: clean.length,
+    archetypes: byArch.size,
+    cumulative_tests: mc.cumulative_tests,
+    calibration_helper_present: certified,
+    proven_by_archetype: PROVEN_BY_ARCHETYPE,
+    note: 'every band is a BASE-RATE read — no factor has passed the gate for any archetype',
+    bands: out,
+  }, null, 2));
+  process.exit(0);
+}
+
+main().catch((e) => { console.error(e); process.exit(1); });

scripts/calibrate-four-stats.js

@@ -0,0 +1,267 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env node
+'use strict';
+
+/**
+ * calibrate-four-stats — Phases 2, 3, 4 and 7.
+ *
+ * ── ONE SIDE PER PROP, OR THE MEASUREMENT IS MEANINGLESS ─────────────────
+ * 97.6% of snapshot props carry BOTH the over and the under. Their p_wins sum to
+ * ~1 and their outcomes are complementary, so any calibration statistic over the
+ * raw population is pinned to 0.5 by symmetry. Measured that way the counter
+ * looks perfectly calibrated (+0.0002 on hits); deduped to the model-PICKED side
+ * it is +0.0868. Same rows, opposite conclusion.
+ *
+ * ── DATE-CLUSTERED, PER THE ORDER ────────────────────────────────────────
+ * A day's offensive environment is a real shared component, so uncertainty is
+ * clustered on the game DATE rather than the game. That is the honest unit for a
+ * systematic-bias claim and it is a much harder bar than game-clustering.
+ *
+ *   SUPABASE_URL=... node scripts/calibrate-four-stats.js
+ */
+
+require('dotenv').config();
+const fs = require('fs');
+const path = require('path');
+const { createClient } = require('@supabase/supabase-js');
+const cal = require('../src/services/model/calibration');
+const { knownNumber } = require('../src/utils/known');
+
+const SB_URL = process.env.SUPABASE_URL;
+const SB_KEY = process.env.SUPABASE_SERVICE_ROLE_KEY || process.env.SUPABASE_SERVICE_KEY;
+const BOX = path.join(process.cwd(), '.seq-cache', 'batting-lines.json');
+const STATS = ['hits', 'total_bases', 'rbi', 'runs'];
+const PAGE = 1000;
+/** The order's deploy floor: dates, not games. */
+const MIN_DATE_CLUSTERS = 40;
+
+const FIELD = { hits: (b) => b.hits, total_bases: (b) => b.totalBases, rbi: (b) => b.rbi, runs: (b) => b.runs };
+const mean = (xs) => (xs.length ? xs.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / xs.length : null);
+const brier = (ps, ys) => mean(ps.map((p, i) => (p - ys[i]) ** 2));
+
+async function page(sb, table, select, apply) {
+  const out = [];
+  for (let from = 0; ; from += PAGE) {
+    const { data, error } = await apply(sb.from(table).select(select))
+      .order('id', { ascending: true }).range(from, from + PAGE - 1);
+    if (error) throw error;
+    if (!data || data.length === 0) break;
+    out.push(...data);
+    if (data.length < PAGE) break;
+  }
+  return out;
+}
+
+const isPreGame = (capturedAt, gameDate) => {
+  const et = new Date(new Date(capturedAt).getTime() - 4 * 3600 * 1000);
+  const d = et.toISOString().slice(0, 10);
+  return d < gameDate || (d === gameDate && et.getUTCHours() < 19);
+};
+
+function makeRnd(seed) {
+  let s = seed >>> 0;
+  return () => { s ^= s << 13; s >>>= 0; s ^= s >>> 17; s ^= s << 5; s >>>= 0; return s / 4294967296; };
+}
+
+/** Paired bootstrap on the Brier difference, resampling DATES. */
+function dateClusteredCI(rows, cumulativeTests = 1, iters = 3000) {
+  const byDate = new Map();
+  for (const r of rows) {
+    if (!byDate.has(r.date)) byDate.set(r.date, []);
+    byDate.get(r.date).push(r);
+  }
+  const keys = [...byDate.keys()];
+  const rnd = makeRnd(20260807);
+  const diffs = [];
+  for (let it = 0; it < iters; it += 1) {
+    const raw = []; const adj = []; const ys = [];
+    for (let i = 0; i < keys.length; i += 1) {
+      for (const r of byDate.get(keys[Math.floor(rnd() * keys.length)])) {
+        raw.push(r.p); adj.push(r.pc); ys.push(r.won);
+      }
+    }
+    diffs.push(brier(adj, ys) - brier(raw, ys));
+  }
+  diffs.sort((a, b) => a - b);
+  const tests = Math.max(1, Math.round(cumulativeTests));
+  const alpha = 0.05 / tests;
+  const q = (x) => diffs[Math.floor(Math.min(diffs.length - 1, Math.max(0, x * (diffs.length - 1))))];
+  return { ci: [round4(q(alpha / 2)), round4(q(1 - alpha / 2))], date_clusters: keys.length, ci_level: round4(1 - alpha) };
+}
+
+async function main() {
+  const sb = createClient(SB_URL, SB_KEY, { auth: { persistSession: false } });
+  const lines = JSON.parse(fs.readFileSync(BOX, 'utf8')).lines;
+
+  const snaps = await page(sb, 'model_snapshots',
+    'id, game_date, captured_at, stat, player_key, line, side, p_win, refused, grade',
+    (q) => q.eq('sport', 'mlb').in('stat', STATS));
+
+  // ── ONE SIDE PER PROP: the side the model picked (its higher p_win). ──
+  const picked = new Map();
+  const refusedProps = new Map();
+  for (const r of snaps) {
+    if (!isPreGame(r.captured_at, r.game_date)) continue;
+    const k = [r.game_date, r.stat, r.player_key, r.line].join('|');
+    if (r.refused || knownNumber(r.p_win) === null) {
+      if (!refusedProps.has(k)) refusedProps.set(k, r);
+      continue;
+    }
+    const prev = picked.get(k);
+    if (!prev || knownNumber(r.p_win) > knownNumber(prev.p_win)) picked.set(k, r);
+  }
+
+  const resolve = (r) => {
+    const b = lines[`${r.game_date}|${r.player_key}`];
+    const L = knownNumber(r.line);
+    if (!b || L === null || !r.side) return null;
+    const v = knownNumber(FIELD[r.stat](b));
+    if (v === null) return null;
+    const over = v > L;
+    return { over, won: (String(r.side).toLowerCase() === 'under' ? !over : over) ? 1 : 0, realized: v };
+  };
+
+  const out = { deploy_floor_date_clusters: MIN_DATE_CLUSTERS, per_stat: {}, refusal_accuracy: {} };
+
+  for (const stat of STATS) {
+    const rows = [];
+    for (const r of picked.values()) {
+      if (r.stat !== stat) continue;
+      const res = resolve(r);
+      if (!res) continue;
+      rows.push({ date: r.game_date, p: knownNumber(r.p_win), won: res.won });
+    }
+    rows.sort((a, b) => String(a.date).localeCompare(String(b.date)));
+    const dates = [...new Set(rows.map((r) => r.date))].sort();
+
+    if (rows.length < 100 || dates.length < 3) {
+      out.per_stat[stat] = { n: rows.length, date_clusters: dates.length, decision: 'REFUSE', reason: 'too few rows or dates to split point-in-time' };
+      continue;
+    }
+
+    // POINT-IN-TIME: fit strictly on earlier dates, evaluate on later ones.
+    //
+    // The cut is placed by ROW COUNT rather than by date index. Props are not
+    // spread evenly across dates -- hits concentrate in the later ones -- so a
+    // 60%-of-DATES cut left only 143 rows to fit on, under the 200 the fitter
+    // needs. Splitting on cumulative rows keeps the split strictly temporal
+    // (every fit date precedes every eval date) while giving both sides enough
+    // to work with.
+    const perDate = new Map();
+    for (const r of rows) perDate.set(r.date, (perDate.get(r.date) || 0) + 1);
+    let acc = 0; let cut = dates[dates.length - 1];
+    for (const d of dates) {
+      acc += perDate.get(d) || 0;
+      if (acc >= rows.length * 0.45) { cut = d; break; }
+    }
+    const fit = rows.filter((r) => r.date < cut);
+    const ev = rows.filter((r) => r.date >= cut);
+    if (fit.length < 50 || ev.length < 50) {
+      out.per_stat[stat] = { n: rows.length, date_clusters: dates.length, decision: 'REFUSE', reason: 'time split leaves too little on one side' };
+      continue;
+    }
+
+    const iso = cal.fitIsotonic(fit.map((r) => ({ p: r.p, won: r.won })));
+    // NULL IS NOT A PREDICTION. fitIsotonic returns null below its minimum and
+    // applyIsotonic then returns null per row -- and (null - 1)**2 === 1 while
+    // (null - 0)**2 === 0, so a "Brier score" computed over nulls is silently
+    // just the win rate. That is exactly the Number(null) === 0 breach this
+    // codebase keeps having to catch, and it produced a fake 0.5567 for hits.
+    if (!iso) {
+      out.per_stat[stat] = {
+        n: rows.length, date_clusters: dates.length, fit_n: fit.length, eval_n: ev.length,
+        decision: 'REFUSE', reason: `no calibration map could be fitted on ${fit.length} fit rows`,
+      };
+      continue;
+    }
+    const scored = ev.map((r) => ({ ...r, pc: cal.applyIsotonic(iso, r.p) }))
+      .filter((r) => knownNumber(r.pc) !== null);
+    if (scored.length < 50) {
+      out.per_stat[stat] = {
+        n: rows.length, date_clusters: dates.length,
+        decision: 'REFUSE', reason: `only ${scored.length} eval rows could be mapped`,
+      };
+      continue;
+    }
+    const ys = scored.map((r) => r.won);
+    const bRaw = brier(scored.map((r) => r.p), ys);
+    const bCal = brier(scored.map((r) => r.pc), ys);
+    const { ci, date_clusters, ci_level } = dateClusteredCI(scored, 1);
+
+    // CERTIFIED BAND: p_win deciles where held-out |predicted - actual| is small.
+    const bands = [];
+    for (let lo = 0.3; lo < 0.95; lo += 0.1) {
+      const slice = scored.filter((r) => r.p >= lo && r.p < lo + 0.1);
+      if (slice.length < 25) continue;
+      const pred = mean(slice.map((r) => r.pc));
+      const act = mean(slice.map((r) => r.won));
+      bands.push({ range: [round2(lo), round2(lo + 0.1)], n: slice.length, calibrated_pred: round4(pred), actual: round4(act), err: round4(pred - act) });
+    }
+    const certified = bands.filter((b) => Math.abs(b.err) <= 0.05).map((b) => b.range);
+
+    const improves = bCal < bRaw && ci[1] < 0;
+    const enoughDates = date_clusters >= MIN_DATE_CLUSTERS;
+
+    // PHASE 4 — bias SHAPE across the p_win range (diagnostic only).
+    const shape = [];
+    for (let lo = 0.3; lo < 0.95; lo += 0.1) {
+      const slice = rows.filter((r) => r.p >= lo && r.p < lo + 0.1);
+      if (slice.length < 25) continue;
+      shape.push({ range: [round2(lo), round2(lo + 0.1)], n: slice.length, bias: round4(mean(slice.map((r) => r.p)) - mean(slice.map((r) => r.won))) });
+    }
+
+    out.per_stat[stat] = {
+      n: rows.length,
+      date_clusters: dates.length,
+      bias_pre: round4(mean(rows.map((r) => r.p)) - mean(rows.map((r) => r.won))),
+      fit_n: fit.length, eval_n: ev.length, split_at: cut,
+      brier_raw: round4(bRaw),
+      brier_calibrated: round4(bCal),
+      brier_delta: round4(bCal - bRaw),
+      ci_date_clustered: ci,
+      ci_level,
+      eval_date_clusters: date_clusters,
+      certified_bands: certified,
+      band_detail: bands,
+      bias_shape: shape,
+      decision: improves && enoughDates ? 'DEPLOY' : 'REFUSE',
+      reason: improves && enoughDates ? 'held-out Brier improves, date-clustered, and the date floor is met'
+        : (!enoughDates
+          ? `date-clusters ${date_clusters} < ${MIN_DATE_CLUSTERS} — the honest unit for a systematic-bias claim`
+          : 'held-out Brier does not improve at the date-clustered interval'),
+    };
+  }
+
+  // ── PHASE 7 — REFUSAL ACCURACY ──
+  // The model passed on these. A pass is CORRECT when there was genuinely
+  // nothing to call: the over lands near a coin flip rather than at an
+  // exploitable rate.
+  for (const stat of STATS) {
+    const refs = [];
+    for (const r of refusedProps.values()) {
+      if (r.stat !== stat) continue;
+      const res = resolve({ ...r, side: 'over' });
+      if (res) refs.push(res.over ? 1 : 0);
+    }
+    const graded = [];
+    for (const r of picked.values()) {
+      if (r.stat !== stat) continue;
+      const res = resolve({ ...r, side: 'over' });
+      if (res) graded.push(res.over ? 1 : 0);
+    }
+    out.refusal_accuracy[stat] = {
+      refused_n: refs.length,
+      refused_over_rate: refs.length ? round4(mean(refs)) : null,
+      graded_over_rate: graded.length ? round4(mean(graded)) : null,
+      refused_distance_from_coinflip: refs.length ? round4(Math.abs(mean(refs) - 0.5)) : null,
+      graded_distance_from_coinflip: graded.length ? round4(Math.abs(mean(graded) - 0.5)) : null,
+    };
+  }
+
+  console.log(JSON.stringify(out, null, 2));
+  process.exit(0);
+}
+
+const round4 = (v) => (v == null || !Number.isFinite(v) ? null : Math.round(v * 10000) / 10000);
+const round2 = (v) => Math.round(v * 100) / 100;
+
+main().catch((e) => { console.error(e); process.exit(1); });

scripts/champion-vs-fair-baseline.js

@@ -0,0 +1,174 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env node
+'use strict';
+
+/**
+ * PHASES 0-1 — is the champion really worse than a frequency table?
+ *
+ * The prior comparison used a leave-one-out baseline that saw the evaluation
+ * window. This one does not: for every prop, the naive forecast is that player's
+ * rate of clearing THAT LINE over games strictly BEFORE that date — the same
+ * temporal discipline the champion is held to. If the champion still loses, the
+ * defect is real and not an artefact of the peek.
+ *
+ * Then the champion's own knobs are ablated. Its core is
+ *
+ *     p = 0.6 * season_frequency + 0.4 * last5_frequency
+ *
+ * plus a +/-0.03 opponent nudge, a +/-0.015 home nudge, and a cv pull. Each is
+ * tested for whether it COSTS resolution. This is accounting on the champion's
+ * existing knobs, not a causal claim, so no Bonferroni slot.
+ */
+
+require('dotenv').config();
+const fs = require('fs');
+const path = require('path');
+const { createClient } = require('@supabase/supabase-js');
+const guards = require('../src/services/model/calibrationGuards');
+const { knownNumber } = require('../src/utils/known');
+
+const BOX = path.join(process.cwd(), '.seq-cache', 'batting-lines.json');
+const STATS = ['hits', 'total_bases', 'rbi', 'runs'];
+const FIELD = { hits: (b) => b.hits, total_bases: (b) => b.totalBases, rbi: (b) => b.rbi, runs: (b) => b.runs };
+const mean = (xs) => (xs.length ? xs.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / xs.length : null);
+/** Games a player needs before we will read his own rate at all. */
+const MIN_PRIOR_GAMES = 10;
+
+async function page(sb, t, sel, orderBy, apply) {
+  const out = [];
+  for (let i = 0; ; i += 1000) {
+    const { data, error } = await apply(sb.from(t).select(sel)).order(orderBy, { ascending: true }).range(i, i + 999);
+    if (error) throw new Error(`${t}: ${error.message}`);
+    if (!data || !data.length) break;
+    out.push(...data);
+    if (data.length < 1000) break;
+  }
+  return out;
+}
+const isPreGame = (c, g) => {
+  const et = new Date(new Date(c).getTime() - 4 * 3600 * 1000);
+  const d = et.toISOString().slice(0, 10);
+  return d < g || (d === g && et.getUTCHours() < 19);
+};
+function makeRnd(seed) { let s = seed >>> 0; return () => { s ^= s << 13; s >>>= 0; s ^= s >>> 17; s ^= s << 5; s >>>= 0; return s / 4294967296; }; }
+
+function resolutionOf(rows, key) {
+  const base = mean(rows.map((r) => r.won));
+  let res = 0;
+  for (let k = 0; k < 10; k += 1) {
+    const lo = k / 10; const hi = (k + 1) / 10;
+    const sl = rows.filter((r) => r[key] >= lo && (hi >= 1 ? r[key] <= 1 : r[key] < hi));
+    if (!sl.length) continue;
+    res += (sl.length / rows.length) * (mean(sl.map((x) => x.won)) - base) ** 2;
+  }
+  return res;
+}
+
+/** Paired date-block bootstrap on a resolution difference (a − b). */
+function dateBlockResCI(rows, a, b, seed) {
+  const byDate = new Map();
+  for (const r of rows) { if (!byDate.has(r.date)) byDate.set(r.date, []); byDate.get(r.date).push(r); }
+  const keys = [...byDate.keys()]; const rnd = makeRnd(seed); const d = [];
+  for (let it = 0; it < 3000; it += 1) {
+    const s = [];
+    for (let i = 0; i < keys.length; i += 1) s.push(...byDate.get(keys[Math.floor(rnd() * keys.length)]));
+    d.push(resolutionOf(s, a) - resolutionOf(s, b));
+  }
+  d.sort((x, y) => x - y);
+  return { ci: [r5(d[Math.floor(d.length * 0.025)]), r5(d[Math.floor(d.length * 0.975)])], date_blocks: keys.length };
+}
+
+(async () => {
+  const sb = createClient(process.env.SUPABASE_URL, process.env.SUPABASE_SERVICE_ROLE_KEY || process.env.SUPABASE_SERVICE_KEY, { auth: { persistSession: false } });
+  const lines = JSON.parse(fs.readFileSync(BOX, 'utf8')).lines;
+
+  // Per-player, date-ordered history. The ONLY source of the naive forecast.
+  const hist = new Map();
+  for (const [k, b] of Object.entries(lines)) {
+    const [date, key] = k.split('|');
+    if (!hist.has(key)) hist.set(key, []);
+    hist.get(key).push({ date, b });
+  }
+  for (const v of hist.values()) v.sort((x, y) => x.date.localeCompare(y.date));
+
+  const out = {};
+  for (const stat of STATS) {
+    const snaps = await page(sb, 'model_snapshots',
+      'id, game_date, captured_at, stat, player_key, line, side, p_win, refused, features', 'id',
+      (q) => q.eq('sport', 'mlb').eq('stat', stat));
+    const picked = new Map();
+    for (const r of snaps) {
+      if (!isPreGame(r.captured_at, r.game_date) || r.refused || knownNumber(r.p_win) === null) continue;
+      const k = [r.game_date, r.player_key, r.line].join('|');
+      const prev = picked.get(k);
+      if (!prev || knownNumber(r.p_win) > knownNumber(prev.p_win)) picked.set(k, r);
+    }
+    guards.assertPickedSideDedup([...picked.values()].map((r) => ({ propKey: [r.game_date, r.player_key, r.line].join('|'), side: r.side, p: knownNumber(r.p_win) })));
+
+    const rows = [];
+    for (const r of picked.values()) {
+      const b = lines[`${r.game_date}|${r.player_key}`]; const L = knownNumber(r.line);
+      if (!b || L === null || !r.side) continue;
+      const v = knownNumber(FIELD[stat](b)); if (v === null) continue;
+      const isUnder = String(r.side).toLowerCase() === 'under';
+      const won = (isUnder ? !(v > L) : (v > L)) ? 1 : 0;
+
+      // ── THE FAIR COMPETITOR: strictly prior games only. ──
+      const prior = (hist.get(r.player_key) || []).filter((g) => g.date < r.game_date);
+      if (prior.length < MIN_PRIOR_GAMES) continue;
+      const vals = prior.map((g) => knownNumber(FIELD[stat](g.b))).filter((x) => x !== null);
+      if (vals.length < MIN_PRIOR_GAMES) continue;
+      const season = vals.filter((x) => x > L).length / vals.length;
+      const last5 = vals.slice(-5);
+      const recent = last5.filter((x) => x > L).length / last5.length;
+
+      const f = r.features || {};
+      const homeAdj = f.home_away === 1.0 ? 0.015 : f.home_away === 0.0 ? -0.015 : 0;
+      const oppR = knownNumber(f.opp_rank_stat);
+      const oppAdj = oppR === null ? 0 : (oppR >= 0.70 ? 0.03 : (oppR <= 0.30 ? -0.03 : 0));
+
+      const flip = (p) => Math.max(0.01, Math.min(0.99, isUnder ? 1 - p : p));
+      const blend = (w) => flip(0.6 === null ? season : (1 - w) * season + w * recent);
+
+      rows.push({
+        date: r.game_date, won,
+        champion: knownNumber(r.p_win),
+        // Reconstructions, all point-in-time.
+        season_only: flip(season),
+        w40: flip(0.6 * season + 0.4 * recent),          // the current blend
+        w20: flip(0.8 * season + 0.2 * recent),
+        w60: flip(0.4 * season + 0.6 * recent),
+        w40_nudged: flip(Math.max(0.01, Math.min(0.99, 0.6 * season + 0.4 * recent + oppAdj + homeAdj))),
+        season_nudged: flip(Math.max(0.01, Math.min(0.99, season + oppAdj + homeAdj))),
+      });
+    }
+    if (rows.length < 100) { out[stat] = { n: rows.length, note: 'too few rows with 10+ prior games' }; continue; }
+
+    // The REPAIRED champion: full-season window + recency weight 0.20, which is
+    // exactly what the code change produces.
+    for (const r of rows) r.repaired = r.w20;
+    const keys = ['champion', 'repaired', 'season_only', 'w20', 'w40', 'w60', 'w40_nudged', 'season_nudged'];
+    const res = Object.fromEntries(keys.map((k) => [k, r5(resolutionOf(rows, k))]));
+    const gap = dateBlockResCI(rows, 'champion', 'season_only', 20260807);
+
+    out[stat] = {
+      n: rows.length,
+      dates: new Set(rows.map((r) => r.date)).size,
+      resolution: res,
+      champion_minus_fair_baseline: r5(res.champion - res.season_only),
+      ci_champion_minus_fair: gap.ci,
+      date_blocks: gap.date_blocks,
+      champion_loses_fairly: res.champion < res.season_only,
+      best_variant: keys.reduce((a, k) => (res[k] > res[a] ? k : a), keys[0]),
+      recency_cost: r5(res.w40 - res.season_only),
+      nudge_cost: r5(res.w40_nudged - res.w40),
+      REPAIRED_vs_fair: r5(res.repaired - res.season_only),
+      REPAIRED_ci: dateBlockResCI(rows, 'repaired', 'season_only', 20260807).ci,
+      REPAIRED_vs_old_champion: r5(res.repaired - res.champion),
+      REPAIRED_beats_old_ci: dateBlockResCI(rows, 'repaired', 'champion', 20260807).ci,
+    };
+  }
+  console.log(JSON.stringify(out, null, 2));
+  process.exit(0);
+})().catch((e) => { console.error('FAILED:', e.message); process.exit(1); });
+
+const r5 = (v) => (v == null || !Number.isFinite(v) ? null : Math.round(v * 100000) / 100000);

scripts/collapsed-sequence-edge.js

@@ -0,0 +1,210 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env node
+'use strict';
+
+/**
+ * THE COLLAPSED SEQUENCE EDGE — Link 1 x pen-season-quality, on later at-bats.
+ *
+ * Link 3 is correctly skipped: reliever IDENTITY did not prove and is genuine
+ * baseball unpredictability. But Link 2's QUALITY grain DID prove, so pen quality
+ * here is a measured predictor rather than a fallback.
+ *
+ * ── THE MECHANICAL CEILING, MEASURED FIRST ───────────────────────────────
+ * A hitter's third or fourth plate appearance is ALREADY against the bullpen
+ * 70-73% of the time even when the starter is projected to go deep. An elevated
+ * early-exit flag lifts that to only 77-83%. So Link 1 buys roughly TEN POINTS
+ * of extra pen exposure, not a switch from starter to pen — and any adjustment
+ * built on it is bounded at about a tenth of the starter-versus-pen quality gap.
+ * That ceiling is a property of baseball, not of the model, and it is the reason
+ * the deltas below are small before anything is even fitted.
+ *
+ * ── WHAT IS ADJUSTED, AND WHAT IS REFUSED ────────────────────────────────
+ * The order specifies pen-quality x pen-ARCHETYPE x hitter-APPROACH. Two of
+ * those three cannot be used honestly:
+ *
+ *   pen archetype     did NOT prove (0.5669 vs a 0.5309 modal baseline, corrected
+ *                     interval spanning zero). Building it into the adjustment
+ *                     would be chaining on an unproven link.
+ *   hitter approach   "fastball-hunter" / "finesse-vulnerable" identities do not
+ *                     exist in this registry. MLB batter archetypes are BOMBER /
+ *                     GHOST / TORCH / BRUSH / DRIVER / FLEX / ALPHA / HYBRID /
+ *                     CATALYST. Inventing an identity to condition on would be
+ *                     fabricating the very thing the gate exists to catch.
+ *
+ * So the adjustment uses the PROVEN component alone, and a hitter split derived
+ * from the sequence data itself (power vs contact by home-run rate) is tested as
+ * a SEPARATE gated addition rather than assumed into the main effect.
+ *
+ *   node scripts/collapsed-sequence-edge.js
+ */
+
+require('dotenv').config();
+const fs = require('fs');
+const path = require('path');
+const fg = require('../src/services/model/factorGate');
+const tl = require('../src/services/model/testLedger');
+const pq = require('../src/services/model/penQuality');
+const { createClient } = require('@supabase/supabase-js');
+
+const CACHE = process.env.SEQ_OUT || path.join(process.cwd(), '.seq-cache', 'sequences.json');
+const HIT = new Set(['single', 'double', 'triple', 'home_run']);
+const PA = new Set(['single', 'double', 'triple', 'home_run', 'field_out', 'strikeout',
+  'grounded_into_double_play', 'force_out', 'field_error', 'fielders_choice',
+  'fielders_choice_out', 'double_play', 'sac_fly', 'pop_out', 'line_out', 'fly_out',
+  'strikeout_double_play']);
+
+const MIN_ARM_PA = 40;
+const MIN_PRIOR_GAMES = 5;
+const MIN_HITTER_PA = 60;
+const MIN_PRIOR_STARTS = 3;
+const EARLY_FLAG_BF = 22;
+const LEAGUE_BF = 21.56;
+
+const mean = (xs) => (xs.length ? xs.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / xs.length : null);
+
+function build() {
+  const { games } = JSON.parse(fs.readFileSync(CACHE, 'utf8'));
+  games.sort((a, b) => String(a.date).localeCompare(String(b.date)) || a.gamePk - b.gamePk);
+
+  const arm = new Map();
+  const bat = new Map();          // hitter -> { n, h, hr }
+  const penHist = new Map();
+  const startHist = new Map();
+  const rows = [];
+
+  for (const g of games) {
+    for (const side of ['home', 'away']) {
+      const team = g[side].abbr || g[side].team;
+      const st = (g[side].arms || []).find((a) => a.started);
+      if (!team || !st) continue;
+      const half = side === 'home' ? 'top' : 'bottom';
+      const pas = g.pas.filter((p) => p.half === half && PA.has(p.event));
+
+      const ps = startHist.get(st.id) || [];
+      let predBf = null;
+      if (ps.length >= MIN_PRIOR_STARTS) {
+        const w = ps.length / (ps.length + 5);
+        predBf = w * mean(ps) + (1 - w) * LEAGUE_BF;
+      }
+      const hist = penHist.get(team) || [];
+      const pen = pq.projectPen(hist.map((q) => ({ quality: q })));
+
+      const seen = new Map();
+      for (const p of pas) {
+        const k = p.batter;
+        seen.set(k, (seen.get(k) || 0) + 1);
+        const paNum = seen.get(k);
+        const b = bat.get(k);
+        // knownRate abstain: no readable hitter, starter or pen -> no row at all.
+        if (paNum < 3 || predBf === null || !pen || !b || b.n < MIN_HITTER_PA) continue;
+        rows.push({
+          gamePk: g.gamePk,
+          cluster: g.gamePk,
+          batter: k,
+          paNum,
+          early: predBf <= EARLY_FLAG_BF,
+          pen_quality: pen.quality,
+          hitter_base: b.h / b.n,
+          hitter_hr_rate: b.hr / b.n,
+          won: HIT.has(p.event) ? 1 : 0,
+        });
+      }
+
+      const faced = [];
+      for (const p of pas.filter((x) => x.pitcher !== st.id)) {
+        const h = arm.get(p.pitcher);
+        if (h && h.n >= MIN_ARM_PA) faced.push(h.h / h.n);
+      }
+      if (faced.length) penHist.set(team, hist.concat([mean(faced)]));
+      if (st.bf != null) startHist.set(st.id, ps.concat([st.bf]));
+      for (const p of pas) {
+        const c = arm.get(p.pitcher) || { n: 0, h: 0, k: 0 };
+        c.n += 1; c.h += HIT.has(p.event) ? 1 : 0; c.k += p.event === 'strikeout' ? 1 : 0;
+        arm.set(p.pitcher, c);
+      }
+      for (const p of pas) {
+        const c = bat.get(p.batter) || { n: 0, h: 0, hr: 0 };
+        c.n += 1; c.h += HIT.has(p.event) ? 1 : 0; c.hr += p.event === 'home_run' ? 1 : 0;
+        bat.set(p.batter, c);
+      }
+    }
+  }
+  return rows;
+}
+
+/** The adjustment: the hitter's own rate, shifted by the PROVEN pen signal. */
+const adjust = (r) => {
+  const shift = pq.hitRateShift(r.pen_quality);
+  if (shift === null) return null;
+  return Math.max(0.01, Math.min(0.99, r.hitter_base + shift));
+};
+
+(async () => {
+  const all = build();
+  const qs = all.map((r) => r.pen_quality).sort((a, b) => a - b);
+  const weakCut = qs[Math.floor(qs.length * 2 / 3)];
+  const strongCut = qs[Math.floor(qs.length / 3)];
+
+  const subsets = {
+    // The order's concentrated subset.
+    concentrated_early_x_weak_pen: all.filter((r) => r.early && r.pen_quality >= weakCut),
+    // The mirror, where the descriptive pass suggested the larger movement.
+    mirror_early_x_strong_pen: all.filter((r) => r.early && r.pen_quality <= strongCut),
+    // Every later at-bat with an early-exit flag, both directions of pen quality.
+    all_early_exit_later_abs: all.filter((r) => r.early),
+    pooled_all_later_abs: all,
+  };
+
+  let cumulative = 1;
+  try {
+    const sb = createClient(process.env.SUPABASE_URL,
+      process.env.SUPABASE_SERVICE_ROLE_KEY || process.env.SUPABASE_SERVICE_KEY,
+      { auth: { persistSession: false } });
+    const mc = await tl.recordAndCount(tl.supabaseStore(sb), Object.keys(subsets).map((k) => ({
+      sport: 'mlb', stat: 'hits', archetype: null,
+      interaction: `collapsed_sequence:${k}`, target: 'later_ab_outcome',
+    })));
+    cumulative = mc.cumulative_tests;
+  } catch { /* offline */ }
+
+  const gate = (rs, label) => fg.adjudicate(
+    rs.map((r) => ({ cluster: r.cluster, baseline: r.hitter_base, conditioned: adjust(r), won: r.won }))
+      .filter((r) => r.conditioned !== null),
+    { factor: label, stat: 'hits', cumulativeTests: cumulative },
+  );
+
+  const results = {};
+  for (const [k, rs] of Object.entries(subsets)) results[k] = gate(rs, k);
+
+  // Hitter split as a SEPARATE gated addition — never assumed into the main effect.
+  const conc = subsets.concentrated_early_x_weak_pen;
+  const hrs = conc.map((r) => r.hitter_hr_rate).sort((a, b) => a - b);
+  const hrCut = hrs[Math.floor(hrs.length / 2)];
+  const bySplit = {
+    power_hitters: gate(conc.filter((r) => r.hitter_hr_rate >= hrCut), 'concentrated_power'),
+    contact_hitters: gate(conc.filter((r) => r.hitter_hr_rate < hrCut), 'concentrated_contact'),
+  };
+
+  console.log(JSON.stringify({
+    later_at_bats_readable: all.length,
+    cumulative_tests: cumulative,
+    subset_sizes: Object.fromEntries(Object.entries(subsets).map(([k, v]) => [k, v.length])),
+    gate: Object.fromEntries(Object.entries(results).map(([k, v]) => [k, {
+      n: v.movement.n,
+      clusters: v.improvement ? v.improvement.effective_n : null,
+      mean_abs_shift: v.movement.mean_abs_shift,
+      brier_delta: v.improvement ? v.improvement.brier_delta : null,
+      ci: v.improvement ? v.improvement.ci : null,
+      verdict: v.verdict,
+    }])),
+    hitter_split_separate_gate: Object.fromEntries(Object.entries(bySplit).map(([k, v]) => [k, {
+      n: v.movement.n, brier_delta: v.improvement ? v.improvement.brier_delta : null,
+      ci: v.improvement ? v.improvement.ci : null, verdict: v.verdict,
+    }])),
+    refused: {
+      pen_archetype: 'did not prove at the corrected bar — excluded from the adjustment',
+      hitter_approach_identity: 'SPRAY / fastball-hunter identities do not exist in this registry',
+      link3_per_reliever: 'SKIPPED — reliever identity is genuine baseball unpredictability',
+    },
+  }, null, 2));
+  process.exit(0);
+})();

scripts/derive-lodo-test.js

@@ -0,0 +1,198 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env node
+'use strict';
+
+/**
+ * PHASE 1 — derive a COHERENT LODO test, blind to reversals.
+ *
+ * ── THE DEFECT BEING FIXED ───────────────────────────────────────────────
+ * The gate at 1f40014 paired a 1-SE per-drop informativeness bar with a
+ * zero-reversal decision rule. Those two are incoherent. At exactly 1 SE, a
+ * genuinely STABLE stat's drop reverses with probability Phi(-1) = 0.159, so on
+ * four informative drops the chance of at least one reversal is
+ * 1 - 0.841^4 = 0.50. The rule failed stable stats half the time by construction.
+ *
+ * And n* was pooled across four stats whose signed effects differ several-fold,
+ * so "informative" meant different things for different stats while being
+ * treated as one number.
+ *
+ * ── THE FIX ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+ * The two halves have to be chosen together:
+ *
+ *   informative bar   n*_k = k^2 * (sigma_row / |g|)^2      PER STAT
+ *   decision rule     FAIL iff reversals > c, where under stability
+ *                     R ~ Binomial(D, Phi(-k)) and c is the smallest cutoff
+ *                     with P(R > c) <= 0.05
+ *
+ * `g` is the mean SIGNED per-row improvement — the quantity whose sign a
+ * reversal flips. Not a mean-absolute, and not pooled: a reversal is a claim
+ * about THIS stat's effect changing sign.
+ *
+ * THIS SCRIPT PRINTS NO REVERSAL AND NO VERDICT. It is blind by construction and
+ * must run, and its constants be committed, before any stat is re-read.
+ *
+ *   SUPABASE_URL=... node scripts/derive-lodo-test.js
+ */
+
+require('dotenv').config();
+const fs = require('fs');
+const path = require('path');
+const { createClient } = require('@supabase/supabase-js');
+const cal = require('../src/services/model/calibration');
+const guards = require('../src/services/model/calibrationGuards');
+const { knownNumber } = require('../src/utils/known');
+
+const BOX = path.join(process.cwd(), '.seq-cache', 'batting-lines.json');
+const STATS = ['hits', 'total_bases', 'rbi', 'runs'];
+const PAGE = 1000;
+/** |g| must clear this many SE at the stat's full n or there is no effect to test. */
+const EFFECT_Z = 1.96;
+/** Target false-positive rate for the whole per-stat test. */
+const TARGET_FP = 0.05;
+
+const FIELD = { hits: (b) => b.hits, total_bases: (b) => b.totalBases, rbi: (b) => b.rbi, runs: (b) => b.runs };
+const mean = (xs) => (xs.length ? xs.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / xs.length : null);
+
+/** Standard normal CDF (Abramowitz–Stegun 7.1.26 via erf). */
+function normCdf(z) {
+  const t = 1 / (1 + 0.2316419 * Math.abs(z));
+  const d = 0.3989422804014327 * Math.exp(-z * z / 2);
+  const p = d * t * (0.319381530 + t * (-0.356563782 + t * (1.781477937 + t * (-1.821255978 + t * 1.330274429))));
+  return z >= 0 ? 1 - p : p;
+}
+
+const binomPmf = (n, k, p) => {
+  let logC = 0;
+  for (let i = 0; i < k; i += 1) logC += Math.log(n - i) - Math.log(i + 1);
+  return Math.exp(logC + k * Math.log(p) + (n - k) * Math.log(1 - p));
+};
+/** P(R > c) for R ~ Binomial(n, p). */
+const binomTail = (n, c, p) => {
+  let s = 0;
+  for (let k = c + 1; k <= n; k += 1) s += binomPmf(n, k, p);
+  return s;
+};
+/** Smallest cutoff c with P(R > c) <= target. */
+function cutoffFor(D, p, target) {
+  for (let c = 0; c <= D; c += 1) if (binomTail(D, c, p) <= target) return { cutoff: c, fp: binomTail(D, c, p) };
+  return { cutoff: D, fp: 0 };
+}
+
+async function page(sb, t, s, f) {
+  const o = [];
+  for (let i = 0; ; i += PAGE) {
+    const { data, error } = await f(sb.from(t).select(s)).order('id', { ascending: true }).range(i, i + PAGE - 1);
+    if (error) throw error;
+    if (!data.length) break;
+    o.push(...data);
+    if (data.length < PAGE) break;
+  }
+  return o;
+}
+const isPreGame = (c, g) => {
+  const et = new Date(new Date(c).getTime() - 4 * 3600 * 1000);
+  const d = et.toISOString().slice(0, 10);
+  return d < g || (d === g && et.getUTCHours() < 19);
+};
+
+(async () => {
+  const sb = createClient(process.env.SUPABASE_URL,
+    process.env.SUPABASE_SERVICE_ROLE_KEY || process.env.SUPABASE_SERVICE_KEY, { auth: { persistSession: false } });
+  const lines = JSON.parse(fs.readFileSync(BOX, 'utf8')).lines;
+
+  const snaps = await page(sb, 'model_snapshots',
+    'id, game_date, captured_at, stat, player_key, line, side, p_win, refused',
+    (q) => q.eq('sport', 'mlb').in('stat', STATS));
+
+  const picked = new Map();
+  for (const r of snaps) {
+    if (!isPreGame(r.captured_at, r.game_date) || r.refused || knownNumber(r.p_win) === null) continue;
+    const k = [r.game_date, r.stat, r.player_key, r.line].join('|');
+    const prev = picked.get(k);
+    if (!prev || knownNumber(r.p_win) > knownNumber(prev.p_win)) picked.set(k, r);
+  }
+  guards.assertPickedSideDedup([...picked.values()].map((r) => ({
+    propKey: [r.game_date, r.stat, r.player_key, r.line].join('|'), side: r.side, p: knownNumber(r.p_win),
+  })));
+
+  const perStat = {};
+  const dateSizes = {};
+
+  for (const stat of STATS) {
+    const rows = [];
+    for (const r of picked.values()) {
+      if (r.stat !== stat) continue;
+      const b = lines[`${r.game_date}|${r.player_key}`];
+      const L = knownNumber(r.line);
+      if (!b || L === null || !r.side) continue;
+      const v = knownNumber(FIELD[stat](b));
+      if (v === null) continue;
+      const over = v > L;
+      rows.push({ date: r.game_date, p: knownNumber(r.p_win), won: (String(r.side).toLowerCase() === 'under' ? !over : over) ? 1 : 0 });
+    }
+    const map = cal.fitIsotonic(rows.map((r) => ({ p: r.p, won: r.won })));
+    if (!map) { perStat[stat] = { n: rows.length, fittable: false }; continue; }
+
+    const d = [];
+    for (const r of rows) {
+      const pc = cal.applyIsotonic(map, r.p);
+      if (knownNumber(pc) === null) continue;
+      d.push((pc - r.won) ** 2 - (r.p - r.won) ** 2);
+    }
+    const g = mean(d);
+    const sigma = Math.sqrt(d.reduce((s, x) => s + (x - g) ** 2, 0) / (d.length - 1));
+    const seFull = sigma / Math.sqrt(d.length);
+
+    // Date sizes are sample STRUCTURE, not outcomes — safe to read here.
+    const sizes = new Map();
+    for (const r of rows) sizes.set(r.date, (sizes.get(r.date) || 0) + 1);
+    dateSizes[stat] = [...sizes.values()].sort((a, b) => b - a);
+
+    perStat[stat] = {
+      n: d.length,
+      g_signed: round5(g),
+      sigma_row: round5(sigma),
+      se_full: round5(seFull),
+      effect_z_at_full_n: round3(Math.abs(g) / seFull),
+      improves: g < 0,
+      no_effect: Math.abs(g) / seFull < EFFECT_Z,
+      fittable: true,
+    };
+  }
+
+  // ── Choose k jointly. Blind: uses only (g, sigma) and date SIZES. ──
+  const kTable = [];
+  for (const k of [1.0, 1.25, 1.5, 1.75, 2.0]) {
+    const pNoise = normCdf(-k);
+    const row = { k, per_drop_noise_prob: round4(pNoise), stats: {} };
+    for (const stat of STATS) {
+      const ps = perStat[stat];
+      if (!ps || !ps.fittable) continue;
+      const nStar = Math.ceil(k * k * (ps.sigma_row / Math.abs(ps.g_signed)) ** 2);
+      const D = (dateSizes[stat] || []).filter((n) => n >= nStar).length;
+      const { cutoff, fp } = D > 0 ? cutoffFor(D, pNoise, TARGET_FP) : { cutoff: null, fp: null };
+      // FN at a stated alternative: date-to-date SD of the effect equals |g|.
+      const pAlt = D > 0 ? normCdf(-Math.abs(ps.g_signed) / Math.sqrt(ps.g_signed ** 2 + (ps.sigma_row ** 2) / nStar)) : null;
+      const fn = D > 0 && cutoff !== null ? 1 - binomTail(D, cutoff, pAlt) : null;
+      row.stats[stat] = {
+        n_star: nStar, informative_drops: D, cutoff, fp: fp === null ? null : round4(fp),
+        fn_at_tau_equals_g: fn === null ? null : round4(fn),
+      };
+    }
+    kTable.push(row);
+  }
+
+  console.log(JSON.stringify({
+    phase: 'PHASE 1 — coherent LODO test derivation, BLIND',
+    defect_being_fixed: 'a 1-SE informative bar with a zero-reversal rule: P(>=1 reversal | stable, 4 drops) = 0.50',
+    per_stat_effect: perStat,
+    date_sizes: dateSizes,
+    k_selection_table: kTable,
+    target_fp: TARGET_FP,
+    blind: 'no reversal, no verdict, no reversing date referenced anywhere in this output',
+  }, null, 2));
+  process.exit(0);
+})().catch((e) => { console.error(e); process.exit(1); });
+
+const round5 = (v) => (v == null || !Number.isFinite(v) ? null : Math.round(v * 100000) / 100000);
+const round4 = (v) => (v == null || !Number.isFinite(v) ? null : Math.round(v * 10000) / 10000);
+const round3 = (v) => (v == null || !Number.isFinite(v) ? null : Math.round(v * 1000) / 1000);

scripts/derive-lodo-threshold.js

@@ -0,0 +1,139 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env node
+'use strict';
+
+/**
+ * PHASE 0 — derive the LODO held-row threshold from POWER, blind to outcomes.
+ *
+ * ESTIMAND: "does dropping date D reverse the SIGN of the out-of-sample Brier
+ * improvement on D's held-out rows?"
+ *
+ * A reversal is only informative if a single date's Brier delta is
+ * distinguishable from zero at that row count. Below that, a reversal is a coin
+ * flip wearing a decimal point — which is exactly the ambiguity that made the
+ * previous verdict depend on an operator-chosen number.
+ *
+ * ── THE DERIVATION ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+ * The per-row Brier difference is
+ *
+ *     d_i = (pc_i - y_i)^2 - (p_i - y_i)^2
+ *
+ * and a date's Brier delta is the MEAN of d over that date's rows. So
+ *
+ *     SE(n) = SD(d) / sqrt(n)
+ *
+ * and the smallest n at which a typical effect clears one standard error is
+ *
+ *     n* = ( SD(d) / |effect| )^2
+ *
+ * SD(d) and |effect| are pooled ACROSS ALL FOUR STATS deliberately: a per-stat
+ * figure would let the threshold be shaped by the stat whose verdict it decides.
+ *
+ * THIS SCRIPT PRINTS NO STAT VERDICT AND NO DATE. It is blind by construction,
+ * and it must be run and its output committed BEFORE any stat is re-read.
+ *
+ *   SUPABASE_URL=... node scripts/derive-lodo-threshold.js
+ */
+
+require('dotenv').config();
+const fs = require('fs');
+const path = require('path');
+const { createClient } = require('@supabase/supabase-js');
+const cal = require('../src/services/model/calibration');
+const guards = require('../src/services/model/calibrationGuards');
+const { knownNumber } = require('../src/utils/known');
+
+const BOX = path.join(process.cwd(), '.seq-cache', 'batting-lines.json');
+const STATS = ['hits', 'total_bases', 'rbi', 'runs'];
+const PAGE = 1000;
+
+const FIELD = { hits: (b) => b.hits, total_bases: (b) => b.totalBases, rbi: (b) => b.rbi, runs: (b) => b.runs };
+const mean = (xs) => (xs.length ? xs.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / xs.length : null);
+
+async function page(sb, t, s, f) {
+  const o = [];
+  for (let i = 0; ; i += PAGE) {
+    const { data, error } = await f(sb.from(t).select(s)).order('id', { ascending: true }).range(i, i + PAGE - 1);
+    if (error) throw error;
+    if (!data.length) break;
+    o.push(...data);
+    if (data.length < PAGE) break;
+  }
+  return o;
+}
+
+const isPreGame = (c, g) => {
+  const et = new Date(new Date(c).getTime() - 4 * 3600 * 1000);
+  const d = et.toISOString().slice(0, 10);
+  return d < g || (d === g && et.getUTCHours() < 19);
+};
+
+(async () => {
+  const sb = createClient(process.env.SUPABASE_URL,
+    process.env.SUPABASE_SERVICE_ROLE_KEY || process.env.SUPABASE_SERVICE_KEY, { auth: { persistSession: false } });
+  const lines = JSON.parse(fs.readFileSync(BOX, 'utf8')).lines;
+
+  const snaps = await page(sb, 'model_snapshots',
+    'id, game_date, captured_at, stat, player_key, line, side, p_win, refused',
+    (q) => q.eq('sport', 'mlb').in('stat', STATS));
+
+  const picked = new Map();
+  for (const r of snaps) {
+    if (!isPreGame(r.captured_at, r.game_date) || r.refused || knownNumber(r.p_win) === null) continue;
+    const k = [r.game_date, r.stat, r.player_key, r.line].join('|');
+    const prev = picked.get(k);
+    if (!prev || knownNumber(r.p_win) > knownNumber(prev.p_win)) picked.set(k, r);
+  }
+  guards.assertPickedSideDedup([...picked.values()].map((r) => ({
+    propKey: [r.game_date, r.stat, r.player_key, r.line].join('|'), side: r.side, p: knownNumber(r.p_win),
+  })));
+
+  // Pooled per-row Brier differences, across all four stats.
+  const diffs = [];
+  for (const stat of STATS) {
+    const rows = [];
+    for (const r of picked.values()) {
+      if (r.stat !== stat) continue;
+      const b = lines[`${r.game_date}|${r.player_key}`];
+      const L = knownNumber(r.line);
+      if (!b || L === null || !r.side) continue;
+      const v = knownNumber(FIELD[stat](b));
+      if (v === null) continue;
+      const over = v > L;
+      rows.push({ p: knownNumber(r.p_win), won: (String(r.side).toLowerCase() === 'under' ? !over : over) ? 1 : 0 });
+    }
+    const map = cal.fitIsotonic(rows.map((r) => ({ p: r.p, won: r.won })));
+    if (!map) continue;
+    for (const r of rows) {
+      const pc = cal.applyIsotonic(map, r.p);
+      if (knownNumber(pc) === null) continue;
+      diffs.push((pc - r.won) ** 2 - (r.p - r.won) ** 2);
+    }
+  }
+
+  const m = mean(diffs);
+  const sd = Math.sqrt(diffs.reduce((s, d) => s + (d - m) ** 2, 0) / (diffs.length - 1));
+  const effect = Math.abs(m);
+  const nStar = Math.ceil((sd / effect) ** 2);
+
+  const curve = [10, 20, 25, 30, 50, 75, 100, 150, 200, 300, 500].map((n) => ({
+    n,
+    se: round5(sd / Math.sqrt(n)),
+    effect_over_se: round3(effect / (sd / Math.sqrt(n))),
+    informative: effect >= sd / Math.sqrt(n),
+  }));
+
+  console.log(JSON.stringify({
+    phase: 'PHASE 0 — power derivation, blind to outcomes',
+    pooled_rows: diffs.length,
+    per_row_brier_diff_sd: round5(sd),
+    pooled_effect_abs_mean: round5(effect),
+    n_star: nStar,
+    rule: 'n* = (SD(d) / |effect|)^2 — the smallest held-row count at which a typical Brier delta clears one standard error',
+    se_vs_n: curve,
+    blind: 'no stat verdict, no date, and no reversal is referenced anywhere in this output',
+  }, null, 2));
+  process.exit(0);
+})().catch((e) => { console.error(e); process.exit(1); });
+
+const round5 = (v) => Math.round(v * 100000) / 100000;
+const round3 = (v) => Math.round(v * 1000) / 1000;

scripts/factor-wiring-audit.js

@@ -0,0 +1,205 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env node
+'use strict';
+
+/**
+ * Phases 0, 2, 3 and 4 — replay the factor wiring on settled hits rows.
+ *
+ * Transmission is proved MECHANICALLY before any resolution number is quoted,
+ * because "resolution went up" is exactly what a subtle bug also prints.
+ */
+
+require('dotenv').config();
+const fs = require('fs');
+const path = require('path');
+const { createClient } = require('@supabase/supabase-js');
+const hf = require('../src/services/model/hitsFactors');
+const lp = require('../src/services/model/lowParamCalibrator');
+const guards = require('../src/services/model/calibrationGuards');
+const { knownNumber } = require('../src/utils/known');
+const { nameKey } = require('../src/utils/playerName');
+
+const BOX = path.join(process.cwd(), '.seq-cache', 'batting-lines.json');
+const SEQ = path.join(process.cwd(), '.seq-cache', 'sequences.json');
+const mean = (xs) => (xs.length ? xs.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / xs.length : null);
+
+async function page(sb, t, s, f, orderBy = 'id') {
+  const o = [];
+  for (let i = 0; ; i += 1000) {
+    const { data, error } = await f(sb.from(t).select(s)).order(orderBy, { ascending: true }).range(i, i + 999);
+    if (error) throw new Error(`${t}: ${error.message}`);
+    if (!data || !data.length) break; o.push(...data); if (data.length < 1000) break;
+  }
+  return o;
+}
+const isPreGame = (c, g) => {
+  const et = new Date(new Date(c).getTime() - 4 * 3600 * 1000);
+  const d = et.toISOString().slice(0, 10);
+  return d < g || (d === g && et.getUTCHours() < 19);
+};
+function makeRnd(seed) { let s = seed >>> 0; return () => { s ^= s << 13; s >>>= 0; s ^= s >>> 17; s ^= s << 5; s >>>= 0; return s / 4294967296; }; }
+
+function decompose(rows, bins = 10) {
+  const base = mean(rows.map((r) => r.won));
+  const unc = base * (1 - base);
+  let rel = 0; let res = 0;
+  for (let k = 0; k < bins; k += 1) {
+    const lo = k / bins; const hi = (k + 1) / bins;
+    const sl = rows.filter((r) => r.p >= lo && (hi >= 1 ? r.p <= 1 : r.p < hi));
+    if (!sl.length) continue;
+    const w = sl.length / rows.length;
+    rel += w * (mean(sl.map((r) => r.p)) - mean(sl.map((r) => r.won))) ** 2;
+    res += w * (mean(sl.map((r) => r.won)) - base) ** 2;
+  }
+  return { base_rate: r4(base), reliability: r5(rel), resolution: r5(res), uncertainty: r5(unc), share: r4(res / unc) };
+}
+
+(async () => {
+  const sb = createClient(process.env.SUPABASE_URL, process.env.SUPABASE_SERVICE_ROLE_KEY || process.env.SUPABASE_SERVICE_KEY, { auth: { persistSession: false } });
+  const lines = JSON.parse(fs.readFileSync(BOX, 'utf8')).lines;
+
+  // Factor inputs.
+  const [spray, defense, platoon, statcast] = await Promise.all([
+    page(sb, 'batter_spray', '*', (q) => q.eq('sport', 'mlb'), 'player_key'),
+    page(sb, 'team_defense', '*', (q) => q.eq('sport', 'mlb'), 'team'),
+    page(sb, 'platoon_splits', '*', (q) => q.eq('sport', 'mlb'), 'player_key'),
+    page(sb, 'statcast_aggregates', 'player_key, role, bats, throws, hard_hit_pct', (q) => q.eq('sport', 'mlb'), 'player_key'),
+  ]);
+  const latest = (rows, k) => { const m = new Map(); for (const r of rows) { const key = r[k]; if (!key) continue; const p = m.get(key); if (!p || String(r.as_of_date) > String(p.as_of_date)) m.set(key, r); } return m; };
+  const sprayBy = latest(spray, 'player_key'); const defBy = latest(defense, 'team'); const platBy = latest(platoon, 'player_key');
+  const batBy = new Map(); const pitBy = new Map();
+  for (const r of statcast) { if (!r.player_key) continue; (r.role === 'pitcher' ? pitBy : batBy).set(r.player_key, r); }
+  const frac = (v) => { const n = knownNumber(v); return n === null ? null : (n > 1 ? n / 100 : n); };
+
+  // Opponent + starter per (player,date) from the sequence cache.
+  const { games } = JSON.parse(fs.readFileSync(SEQ, 'utf8'));
+  const oppOf = new Map(); const spOf = new Map();
+  for (const g of games) {
+    for (const side of ['home', 'away']) {
+      const opp = g[side === 'home' ? 'away' : 'home'];
+      const st = (g[side].arms || []).find((a) => a.started);
+      const half = side === 'home' ? 'top' : 'bottom';
+      for (const pa of g.pas.filter((p) => p.half === half)) {
+        const k = `${g.date}|${nameKey(pa.batter_name || '')}`;
+        if (!oppOf.has(k)) { oppOf.set(k, g[side].team); if (st) spOf.set(k, st.name); }
+      }
+    }
+  }
+
+  const snaps = await page(sb, 'model_snapshots', 'id, game_date, captured_at, stat, player_key, player_name, line, side, p_win, refused',
+    (q) => q.eq('sport', 'mlb').eq('stat', 'hits'));
+  const picked = new Map();
+  for (const r of snaps) {
+    if (!isPreGame(r.captured_at, r.game_date) || r.refused || knownNumber(r.p_win) === null) continue;
+    const k = [r.game_date, r.player_key, r.line].join('|');
+    const prev = picked.get(k);
+    if (!prev || knownNumber(r.p_win) > knownNumber(prev.p_win)) picked.set(k, r);
+  }
+  guards.assertPickedSideDedup([...picked.values()].map((r) => ({ propKey: [r.game_date, r.player_key, r.line].join('|'), side: r.side, p: knownNumber(r.p_win) })));
+
+  const rows = []; const transmission = []; const unreadable = [];
+  for (const r of picked.values()) {
+    const b = lines[`${r.game_date}|${r.player_key}`]; const L = knownNumber(r.line);
+    if (!b || L === null || !r.side) continue;
+    const v = knownNumber(b.hits); if (v === null) continue;
+    const over = v > L;
+    const won = (String(r.side).toLowerCase() === 'under' ? !over : over) ? 1 : 0;
+
+    const key = r.player_key;
+    const bat = batBy.get(key);
+    const oppTeam = oppOf.get(`${r.game_date}|${key}`);
+    const def = oppTeam ? (defBy.get(oppTeam) || defBy.get(String(oppTeam).split(' ').pop())) : null;
+    const spName = spOf.get(`${r.game_date}|${key}`);
+    const pit = spName ? pitBy.get(nameKey(spName)) : null;
+    const sp = platBy.get(key);
+    const ctx = {
+      spray: sprayBy.get(key) || null,
+      positionOaa: def && def.position_oaa ? def.position_oaa : null,
+      bats: bat && bat.bats ? String(bat.bats)[0] : null,
+      throws: pit && pit.throws ? String(pit.throws)[0] : null,
+      pitcherHardHit: pit ? frac(pit.hard_hit_pct) : null,
+      platoonSplits: sp ? { vl: { pa: sp.vl_pa, atBats: sp.vl_ab, hits: sp.vl_hits }, vr: { pa: sp.vr_pa, atBats: sp.vr_ab, hits: sp.vr_hits } } : null,
+    };
+    // The engine adjusts p_over then flips for unders; replay that exactly.
+    const pOverRaw = String(r.side).toLowerCase() === 'under' ? 1 - knownNumber(r.p_win) : knownNumber(r.p_win);
+    const adj = hf.adjustProbability(pOverRaw, ctx);
+    const pAfter = adj.factors_fired > 0
+      ? (String(r.side).toLowerCase() === 'under' ? 1 - adj.p_adjusted : adj.p_adjusted)
+      : knownNumber(r.p_win);
+
+    rows.push({ date: r.game_date, p_before: knownNumber(r.p_win), p: pAfter, won, fired: adj.factors_fired, applied: adj.applied });
+
+    // TRANSMISSION IS TESTED PER FACTOR, IN ISOLATION.
+    // Comparing one factor's expected sign against the COMPOSITE p_win change is
+    // wrong: with three factors firing, two pulling down and one up, the net can
+    // oppose any single member and look like a defect when nothing is broken.
+    // So each factor is applied ALONE to the same base and its own sign checked.
+    const isUnder = String(r.side).toLowerCase() === 'under';
+    for (const a of adj.applied) {
+      if (transmission.filter((t) => t.factor === a.factor).length >= 4) continue;
+      if (Math.abs(a.multiplier - 1) < 0.03) continue;
+      const solo = { spray: null, positionOaa: null, bats: ctx.bats, throws: null, pitcherHardHit: null, platoonSplits: null };
+      if (a.factor === 'defense_by_direction') { solo.spray = ctx.spray; solo.positionOaa = ctx.positionOaa; }
+      if (a.factor === 'pitcher_contact_profile') solo.pitcherHardHit = ctx.pitcherHardHit;
+      if (a.factor === 'platoon_severity') { solo.platoonSplits = ctx.platoonSplits; solo.throws = ctx.throws; }
+      const one = hf.adjustProbability(pOverRaw, solo);
+      if (one.factors_fired !== 1) continue;
+      const soloWin = isUnder ? 1 - one.p_adjusted : one.p_adjusted;
+      transmission.push({
+        factor: a.factor, player: r.player_name, date: r.game_date,
+        expected: a.multiplier > 1 ? 'raise p(over)' : 'lower p(over)', multiplier: a.multiplier,
+        side: r.side, p_before: knownNumber(r.p_win), p_after_solo: r4(soloWin),
+        sign_correct: isUnder
+          ? ((a.multiplier > 1) === (soloWin < knownNumber(r.p_win)))
+          : ((a.multiplier > 1) === (soloWin > knownNumber(r.p_win))),
+      });
+    }
+    if (adj.skipped.some((s) => /switch hitter/.test(s.reason || '')) && unreadable.length < 4) {
+      unreadable.push({ player: r.player_name, reason: 'switch hitter — spray side unreadable', p_before: knownNumber(r.p_win), p_after: pAfter, moved_by_spray: false });
+    }
+  }
+
+  // ── PHASE 4: OOS, point-in-time ──
+  rows.sort((a, b) => a.date.localeCompare(b.date));
+  const dates = [...new Set(rows.map((r) => r.date))].sort();
+  const perDate = new Map(); for (const r of rows) perDate.set(r.date, (perDate.get(r.date) || 0) + 1);
+  let acc = 0; let cut = dates[dates.length - 1];
+  for (const d of dates) { acc += perDate.get(d); if (acc >= rows.length * 0.45) { cut = d; break; } }
+  const fit = rows.filter((r) => r.date < cut); const ev = rows.filter((r) => r.date >= cut);
+
+  const mBefore = lp.fitPlatt(fit.map((r) => ({ p: r.p_before, won: r.won, date: r.date })));
+  const mAfter = lp.fitPlatt(fit.map((r) => ({ p: r.p, won: r.won, date: r.date })));
+  const evBefore = ev.map((r) => ({ ...r, p: mBefore && !mBefore.refused ? lp.applyPlatt(mBefore, r.p_before) : r.p_before })).filter((r) => r.p != null);
+  const evAfter = ev.map((r) => ({ ...r, p: mAfter && !mAfter.refused ? lp.applyPlatt(mAfter, r.p) : r.p })).filter((r) => r.p != null);
+
+  const bBefore = guards.safeBrier(evBefore.map((r) => r.p), evBefore.map((r) => r.won));
+  const bAfter = guards.safeBrier(evAfter.map((r) => r.p), evAfter.map((r) => r.won));
+
+  const byDate = new Map();
+  for (let i = 0; i < evAfter.length; i += 1) { const d = evAfter[i].date; if (!byDate.has(d)) byDate.set(d, []); byDate.get(d).push({ a: evAfter[i].p, b: evBefore[i] ? evBefore[i].p : null, won: evAfter[i].won }); }
+  const keys = [...byDate.keys()]; const rnd = makeRnd(20260807); const diffs = [];
+  for (let it = 0; it < 3000; it += 1) {
+    const s = [];
+    for (let i = 0; i < keys.length; i += 1) s.push(...byDate.get(keys[Math.floor(rnd() * keys.length)]));
+    const u = s.filter((x) => x.b != null);
+    if (!u.length) continue;
+    diffs.push(guards.safeBrier(u.map((x) => x.a), u.map((x) => x.won)) - guards.safeBrier(u.map((x) => x.b), u.map((x) => x.won)));
+  }
+  diffs.sort((a, b) => a - b);
+
+  console.log(JSON.stringify({
+    coverage: { rows: rows.length, any_factor_fired: rows.filter((r) => r.fired > 0).length,
+      by_count: [0, 1, 2, 3].map((k) => ({ factors: k, n: rows.filter((r) => r.fired === k).length })) },
+    PHASE_2_transmission: transmission,
+    PHASE_2_unreadable_static: unreadable,
+    PHASE_4: {
+      split_at: cut, fit_n: fit.length, eval_n: ev.length, eval_dates: keys.length,
+      resolution_before: decompose(evBefore), resolution_after: decompose(evAfter),
+      brier_before: r5(bBefore), brier_after: r5(bAfter), brier_delta: r5(bAfter - bBefore),
+      brier_ci_date_block: diffs.length ? [r5(diffs[Math.floor(diffs.length * 0.025)]), r5(diffs[Math.floor(diffs.length * 0.975)])] : null,
+    },
+  }, null, 2));
+  process.exit(0);
+})().catch((e) => { console.error(e); process.exit(1); });
+
+const r5 = (v) => (v == null || !Number.isFinite(v) ? null : Math.round(v * 100000) / 100000);
+const r4 = (v) => (v == null || !Number.isFinite(v) ? null : Math.round(v * 10000) / 10000);

scripts/ingest-game-sequences.js

@@ -0,0 +1,146 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env node
+'use strict';
+
+/**
+ * ingest-game-sequences — the raw material for the reliever chain.
+ *
+ * Every link in this chain needs something the ledger does not carry: when the
+ * starter actually left, and which arm actually faced each plate appearance.
+ * Both are free from statsapi (playByPlay + boxscore), on the same host we
+ * already use for game logs and schedules.
+ *
+ * Caches to disk so Link 1, 2 and 3 all read one fetch rather than three.
+ *
+ *   node scripts/ingest-game-sequences.js            # default window
+ *   SEQ_FROM=2026-06-01 SEQ_TO=2026-08-04 node scripts/ingest-game-sequences.js
+ */
+
+const fs = require('fs');
+const path = require('path');
+const axios = require('axios');
+
+const FROM = process.env.SEQ_FROM || '2026-06-15';
+const TO = process.env.SEQ_TO || '2026-08-04';
+const OUT = process.env.SEQ_OUT || path.join(process.cwd(), '.seq-cache', 'sequences.json');
+const CONCURRENCY = 6;
+
+const get = async (url) => (await axios.get(url, { timeout: 45_000 })).data;
+
+/** Innings pitched come as '5.2' meaning five and TWO THIRDS — parseFloat is wrong. */
+function ipToOuts(ip) {
+  if (ip == null) return null;
+  const [whole, frac] = String(ip).split('.');
+  const w = Number(whole); const f = Number(frac || 0);
+  if (!Number.isFinite(w)) return null;
+  return w * 3 + (Number.isFinite(f) ? f : 0);
+}
+
+function datesBetween(from, to) {
+  const out = [];
+  const d = new Date(`${from}T12:00:00Z`);
+  const end = new Date(`${to}T12:00:00Z`);
+  while (d <= end) { out.push(d.toISOString().slice(0, 10)); d.setUTCDate(d.getUTCDate() + 1); }
+  return out;
+}
+
+async function pool(items, fn, n = CONCURRENCY) {
+  const out = []; let i = 0;
+  await Promise.all(Array.from({ length: n }, async () => {
+    while (i < items.length) {
+      const idx = i; i += 1;
+      try { out[idx] = await fn(items[idx]); } catch { out[idx] = null; }
+    }
+  }));
+  return out.filter(Boolean);
+}
+
+async function loadGame(g) {
+  const pk = g.gamePk;
+  const [box, pbp] = await Promise.all([
+    get(`https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/game/${pk}/boxscore`),
+    get(`https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/game/${pk}/playByPlay`),
+  ]);
+
+  const sides = {};
+  for (const side of ['home', 'away']) {
+    const t = box.teams[side];
+    if (!t) return null;
+    const arms = (t.pitchers || []).map((id) => {
+      const pl = t.players[`ID${id}`];
+      const s = pl && pl.stats && pl.stats.pitching;
+      if (!s) return null;
+      return {
+        id: Number(id),
+        name: pl.person && pl.person.fullName,
+        started: Number(s.gamesStarted || 0) === 1,
+        bf: s.battersFaced == null ? null : Number(s.battersFaced),
+        outs: ipToOuts(s.inningsPitched),
+        pitches: s.pitchesThrown == null ? null : Number(s.pitchesThrown),
+      };
+    }).filter(Boolean);
+    sides[side] = { team: t.team && t.team.name, abbr: t.team && t.team.abbreviation, arms };
+  }
+
+  // Every plate appearance in order, with who threw it.
+  const pas = [];
+  for (const p of pbp.allPlays || []) {
+    const m = p.matchup || {}; const a = p.about || {};
+    if (!m.batter || !m.pitcher) continue;
+    pas.push({
+      batter: Number(m.batter.id),
+      batter_name: m.batter.fullName,
+      pitcher: Number(m.pitcher.id),
+      bats: m.batSide && m.batSide.code,
+      throws: m.pitchHand && m.pitchHand.code,
+      inning: a.inning,
+      half: a.halfInning,
+      idx: a.atBatIndex,
+      event: p.result && p.result.eventType,
+    });
+  }
+  if (!pas.length) return null;
+
+  return {
+    gamePk: pk,
+    date: g.officialDate || (g.gameDate || '').slice(0, 10),
+    venue_id: g.venue && g.venue.id,
+    home: sides.home, away: sides.away,
+    pas,
+  };
+}
+
+async function main() {
+  const dates = datesBetween(FROM, TO);
+  console.error(`[seq] ${dates.length} dates ${FROM} -> ${TO}`);
+
+  const allGames = [];
+  for (const d of dates) {
+    try {
+      const s = await get(`https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/schedule?sportId=1&date=${d}&hydrate=venue`);
+      for (const day of s.dates || []) {
+        for (const g of day.games || []) {
+          if (String(g.status && g.status.detailedState) === 'Final') allGames.push(g);
+        }
+      }
+    } catch { /* absent day */ }
+  }
+  console.error(`[seq] ${allGames.length} final games; fetching sequences`);
+
+  const games = await pool(allGames, loadGame);
+  fs.mkdirSync(path.dirname(OUT), { recursive: true });
+  fs.writeFileSync(OUT, JSON.stringify({ from: FROM, to: TO, games }));
+
+  const starters = games.reduce((s, g) =>
+    s + ['home', 'away'].filter((k) => g[k].arms.some((a) => a.started)).length, 0);
+  console.log(JSON.stringify({
+    dates: dates.length,
+    final_games: allGames.length,
+    games_loaded: games.length,
+    starter_games: starters,
+    plate_appearances: games.reduce((s, g) => s + g.pas.length, 0),
+    cache: OUT,
+  }, null, 2));
+  process.exit(0);
+}
+
+main().catch((e) => { console.error(e); process.exit(1); });

scripts/link1-pull-timing.js

@@ -0,0 +1,138 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env node
+'use strict';
+
+/**
+ * LINK 1 — does a starter's exit point predict, before the game?
+ *
+ * Target: batters faced by the starter, because that is what decides how many of
+ * a hitter's plate appearances come against him rather than the pen.
+ *
+ * ── WHAT A PRE-GAME PREDICTOR CAN AND CANNOT SEE ─────────────────────────
+ * The order specifies fatigue profile x GAME SCRIPT ("getting hit -> pulled
+ * early"). Game script is not available when a prop is graded: whether he gets
+ * hit tonight is the thing we are trying to project, not an input to it. Using
+ * it would be reading the answer.
+ *
+ * So the honest pre-game form of Link 1 is the fatigue and workload half alone —
+ * the starter's own history, strictly truncated to starts BEFORE the game being
+ * predicted. That is measured here. The in-game half is a LIVE feature, not a
+ * grade-time one, and it is recorded as out of scope rather than quietly folded
+ * in.
+ *
+ * Baseline: the league mean batters faced — the naive "a starter goes about six"
+ * null this must beat to be worth anything.
+ *
+ *   node scripts/link1-pull-timing.js
+ */
+
+require('dotenv').config();
+const fs = require('fs');
+const path = require('path');
+const pg = require('../src/services/model/predictionGate');
+const tl = require('../src/services/model/testLedger');
+const { createClient } = require('@supabase/supabase-js');
+
+const CACHE = process.env.SEQ_OUT || path.join(process.cwd(), '.seq-cache', 'sequences.json');
+/** Starts needed before we will read a pitcher's own history at all. */
+const MIN_PRIOR = 3;
+/** Shrinkage: how many prior starts before his own mean carries half the weight. */
+const STABILIZE = 5;
+/** A start at or under this many batters faced is an EARLY EXIT — the edge case. */
+const EARLY_BF = 20;
+
+const mean = (xs) => (xs.length ? xs.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / xs.length : null);
+
+function main() {
+  const { games } = JSON.parse(fs.readFileSync(CACHE, 'utf8'));
+
+  // Every starter-game, in chronological order.
+  const starts = [];
+  for (const g of games) {
+    for (const side of ['home', 'away']) {
+      const s = (g[side].arms || []).find((a) => a.started);
+      if (!s || s.bf == null) continue;
+      starts.push({ date: g.date, gamePk: g.gamePk, pitcher: s.id, name: s.name, bf: s.bf, outs: s.outs, pitches: s.pitches });
+    }
+  }
+  starts.sort((a, b) => String(a.date).localeCompare(String(b.date)) || a.gamePk - b.gamePk);
+
+  const leagueMean = mean(starts.map((s) => s.bf));
+
+  // POINT-IN-TIME: each start is predicted only from starts strictly before it.
+  const history = new Map();
+  const rows = [];
+  for (const s of starts) {
+    const prior = history.get(s.pitcher) || [];
+    if (prior.length >= MIN_PRIOR) {
+      const own = mean(prior.map((p) => p.bf));
+      const w = prior.length / (prior.length + STABILIZE);
+      rows.push({
+        pitcher: s.pitcher,
+        name: s.name,
+        cluster: s.pitcher,           // his starts are not independent readings
+        baseline: leagueMean,
+        prediction: w * own + (1 - w) * leagueMean,
+        actual: s.bf,
+        prior_starts: prior.length,
+      });
+    }
+    history.set(s.pitcher, prior.concat([s]));
+  }
+
+  return { starts, leagueMean, rows };
+}
+
+(async () => {
+  const { starts, leagueMean, rows } = main();
+
+  let cumulative = 1;
+  try {
+    const sb = createClient(process.env.SUPABASE_URL,
+      process.env.SUPABASE_SERVICE_ROLE_KEY || process.env.SUPABASE_SERVICE_KEY,
+      { auth: { persistSession: false } });
+    const mc = await tl.recordAndCount(tl.supabaseStore(sb), [
+      { sport: 'mlb', stat: 'starter_bf', archetype: null, interaction: 'link1:pull_timing', target: 'actual_exit' },
+    ]);
+    cumulative = mc.cumulative_tests;
+  } catch { /* offline: reported below */ }
+
+  const verdict = pg.adjudicate(rows, {
+    link: 'link1_pull_timing',
+    loss: 'absolute',
+    cumulativeTests: cumulative,
+  });
+
+  // Does it find the EARLY EXITS specifically? That is where the edge lives —
+  // being right about a median start is worth nothing to this chain.
+  const early = rows.filter((r) => r.actual <= EARLY_BF);
+  const late = rows.filter((r) => r.actual > EARLY_BF);
+  const predEarly = rows.filter((r) => r.prediction <= EARLY_BF + 2);
+  const hitRate = predEarly.length
+    ? predEarly.filter((r) => r.actual <= EARLY_BF).length / predEarly.length : null;
+  const baseEarlyRate = rows.length ? early.length / rows.length : null;
+
+  console.log(JSON.stringify({
+    link: 'LINK 1 — starter pull timing',
+    starter_games_total: starts.length,
+    league_mean_bf: round2(leagueMean),
+    gated_rows: rows.length,
+    distinct_pitchers: new Set(rows.map((r) => r.pitcher)).size,
+    cumulative_tests: cumulative,
+    verdict,
+    early_exit_analysis: {
+      definition: `actual batters faced <= ${EARLY_BF}`,
+      early_exits: early.length,
+      normal_starts: late.length,
+      base_rate_of_early_exit: round4(baseEarlyRate),
+      flagged_early_by_model: predEarly.length,
+      of_those_actually_early: round4(hitRate),
+      lift_over_base_rate: hitRate !== null && baseEarlyRate !== null ? round4(hitRate - baseEarlyRate) : null,
+      note: 'the chain needs the EARLY tail, not the median start',
+    },
+    scope_note: 'GAME SCRIPT is deliberately excluded — whether he gets hit tonight is the thing being projected, not an input available at grade time',
+  }, null, 2));
+  process.exit(0);
+})();
+
+const round2 = (v) => (v == null ? null : Math.round(v * 100) / 100);
+const round4 = (v) => (v == null ? null : Math.round(v * 10000) / 10000);

scripts/link2-reliever-identity.js

@@ -0,0 +1,131 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env node
+'use strict';
+
+/**
+ * LINK 2 — can we say WHICH arm faces the later plate appearances?
+ *
+ * Link 1 proved, so this link is allowed to be attempted at all. It is gated the
+ * same way: predict the reliever who actually threw a given post-starter plate
+ * appearance, against a naive baseline, point-in-time.
+ *
+ *   BASELINE     the team's most-used reliever to date — "guess the busiest arm"
+ *   PREDICTION   the reliever that team has most often used IN THIS INNING to
+ *                date, which is the cheapest expression of bullpen ROLE
+ *
+ * Loss is misclassification: 0 when the named arm actually threw it, 1 otherwise.
+ *
+ * ── THE REPLICATION UNIT IS THE BULLPEN, AND THERE ARE THIRTY ────────────
+ * Bullpen usage is a team-level process — the same manager, the same arms, the
+ * same roles all season — so errors are correlated within team and the entity
+ * this prediction rides on is the club. That caps replication at 30 whatever the
+ * row count, exactly like park geometry and team defence. Reported explicitly
+ * rather than dissolved into a row count of tens of thousands.
+ *
+ *   node scripts/link2-reliever-identity.js
+ */
+
+require('dotenv').config();
+const fs = require('fs');
+const path = require('path');
+const pg = require('../src/services/model/predictionGate');
+const tl = require('../src/services/model/testLedger');
+const { createClient } = require('@supabase/supabase-js');
+
+const CACHE = process.env.SEQ_OUT || path.join(process.cwd(), '.seq-cache', 'sequences.json');
+
+/** Pick the key with the highest count; null when there is nothing to pick from. */
+function argmax(counter) {
+  let best = null; let bestN = -1;
+  for (const [k, v] of counter) if (v > bestN) { best = k; bestN = v; }
+  return bestN > 0 ? best : null;
+}
+
+function build() {
+  const { games } = JSON.parse(fs.readFileSync(CACHE, 'utf8'));
+  games.sort((a, b) => String(a.date).localeCompare(String(b.date)) || a.gamePk - b.gamePk);
+
+  // Point-in-time bullpen histories, accumulated as we walk forward in time.
+  const overall = new Map();          // team -> Map(pitcherId -> appearances)
+  const byInning = new Map();         // `team|inning` -> Map(pitcherId -> appearances)
+  const rows = [];
+
+  for (const g of games) {
+    for (const side of ['home', 'away']) {
+      const team = g[side].abbr || g[side].team;
+      if (!team) continue;
+      const starter = (g[side].arms || []).find((a) => a.started);
+      if (!starter) continue;
+      const relievers = new Set((g[side].arms || []).filter((a) => !a.started).map((a) => a.id));
+      if (!relievers.size) continue;
+
+      // This side PITCHES in the opposite half-inning.
+      const half = side === 'home' ? 'top' : 'bottom';
+      const post = g.pas.filter((p) => p.half === half && p.pitcher !== starter.id);
+
+      for (const pa of post) {
+        const ov = overall.get(team);
+        const inn = byInning.get(`${team}|${pa.inning}`);
+        const basePick = ov ? argmax(ov) : null;
+        const modelPick = inn ? argmax(inn) : basePick;
+        // No history yet is honestly unreadable, not a wrong guess.
+        if (basePick === null || modelPick === null) continue;
+        rows.push({
+          cluster: team,
+          baseline: Number(basePick) === pa.pitcher ? 1 : 0,
+          prediction: Number(modelPick) === pa.pitcher ? 1 : 0,
+          actual: 1,
+          inning: pa.inning,
+        });
+      }
+
+      // Now fold this game into history — never before predicting from it.
+      if (!overall.has(team)) overall.set(team, new Map());
+      const ovm = overall.get(team);
+      for (const r of relievers) ovm.set(String(r), (ovm.get(String(r)) || 0) + 1);
+      for (const pa of post) {
+        const k = `${team}|${pa.inning}`;
+        if (!byInning.has(k)) byInning.set(k, new Map());
+        const m = byInning.get(k);
+        m.set(String(pa.pitcher), (m.get(String(pa.pitcher)) || 0) + 1);
+      }
+    }
+  }
+  return rows;
+}
+
+(async () => {
+  const rows = build();
+
+  let cumulative = 1;
+  try {
+    const sb = createClient(process.env.SUPABASE_URL,
+      process.env.SUPABASE_SERVICE_ROLE_KEY || process.env.SUPABASE_SERVICE_KEY,
+      { auth: { persistSession: false } });
+    const mc = await tl.recordAndCount(tl.supabaseStore(sb), [
+      { sport: 'mlb', stat: 'reliever_identity', archetype: null, interaction: 'link2:reliever_identity', target: 'actual_arm' },
+    ]);
+    cumulative = mc.cumulative_tests;
+  } catch { /* offline */ }
+
+  const verdict = pg.adjudicate(rows, {
+    link: 'link2_reliever_identity',
+    loss: 'absolute',
+    cumulativeTests: cumulative,
+  });
+
+  const acc = (k) => (rows.length ? rows.filter((r) => r[k] === 1).length / rows.length : null);
+
+  console.log(JSON.stringify({
+    link: 'LINK 2 — reliever identity',
+    post_starter_plate_appearances: rows.length,
+    distinct_bullpens: new Set(rows.map((r) => r.cluster)).size,
+    cumulative_tests: cumulative,
+    baseline_accuracy: round4(acc('baseline')),
+    model_accuracy: round4(acc('prediction')),
+    verdict,
+    structural_note: 'the entity this prediction rides on is the BULLPEN, and there are 30 — row count cannot create replication that does not exist',
+  }, null, 2));
+  process.exit(0);
+})();
+
+const round4 = (v) => (v == null ? null : Math.round(v * 10000) / 10000);

scripts/link2b-pen-quality.js

@@ -0,0 +1,206 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env node
+'use strict';
+
+/**
+ * LINK 2 (coarse grain) — WHICH BULLPEN, not which arm.
+ *
+ * Naming the individual reliever failed on merit: 17.2% accuracy, wrong five
+ * times in six. This asks the question at the grain the order specifies and Link
+ * 3 actually needs — pen QUALITY and reliever ARCHETYPE — and it is worth asking
+ * because the payoff is measured, not assumed: facing a bottom-quartile arm
+ * rather than a top-quartile one is worth +2.57pp of hit rate, larger than the
+ * whole times-through-the-order effect.
+ *
+ * ── WHY THE CLUSTER UNIT CHANGED FROM LAST SESSION ───────────────────────
+ * Reliever IDENTITY was refused partly as a team-borne prediction: 30 bullpens,
+ * 30 readings, the park-geometry ceiling. Measured for QUALITY, that argument
+ * does not hold — **76% of the variance in a game's pen quality is WITHIN team**,
+ * not between teams. What is being predicted varies game to game inside the same
+ * club (who is rested, who is available), so the game is the honest cluster and
+ * the franchise is not a ceiling. Team-clustered is reported alongside as the
+ * conservative sensitivity rather than hidden.
+ *
+ * ── POINT-IN-TIME ON BOTH SIDES ──────────────────────────────────────────
+ * Each arm's quality is his allowed-hit-rate over appearances strictly BEFORE
+ * this game. That holds for the prediction AND for the target: the target is
+ * "which known-quality arms showed up", never "how they happened to pitch
+ * tonight", which would be scoring against the answer.
+ *
+ *   node scripts/link2b-pen-quality.js
+ */
+
+require('dotenv').config();
+const fs = require('fs');
+const path = require('path');
+const pg = require('../src/services/model/predictionGate');
+const tl = require('../src/services/model/testLedger');
+const { createClient } = require('@supabase/supabase-js');
+const { knownNumber } = require('../src/utils/known');
+
+const CACHE = process.env.SEQ_OUT || path.join(process.cwd(), '.seq-cache', 'sequences.json');
+const HIT = new Set(['single', 'double', 'triple', 'home_run']);
+const PA = new Set(['single', 'double', 'triple', 'home_run', 'field_out', 'strikeout',
+  'grounded_into_double_play', 'force_out', 'field_error', 'fielders_choice',
+  'fielders_choice_out', 'double_play', 'sac_fly', 'pop_out', 'line_out', 'fly_out',
+  'strikeout_double_play']);
+
+/** Appearances before we will read an arm's quality at all. Below it: abstain. */
+const MIN_ARM_PA = 40;
+/** Prior starts before Link 1 will read a starter's own workload. */
+const MIN_PRIOR_STARTS = 3;
+const STABILIZE = 5;
+/** Link 1 flags an elevated early exit at or under this predicted batters-faced. */
+const EARLY_FLAG_BF = 22;
+
+const mean = (xs) => (xs.length ? xs.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / xs.length : null);
+
+/**
+ * Reliever archetype at the coarse grain, from strikeout rate — the axis that
+ * separates a power arm from a contact arm and the one Link 3 would condition on.
+ */
+function archetypeOf(kRate) {
+  if (kRate === null) return null;
+  if (kRate >= 0.28) return 'POWER';
+  if (kRate <= 0.18) return 'CONTACT';
+  return 'MIDDLE';
+}
+
+function build() {
+  const { games } = JSON.parse(fs.readFileSync(CACHE, 'utf8'));
+  games.sort((a, b) => String(a.date).localeCompare(String(b.date)) || a.gamePk - b.gamePk);
+
+  const arm = new Map();          // pid -> { n, h, k }   (all prior PAs)
+  const penHist = new Map();      // team -> [{ quality, k }] per prior game
+  const startHist = new Map();    // starter id -> [bf]
+  const rows = [];
+
+  for (const g of games) {
+    for (const side of ['home', 'away']) {
+      const team = g[side].abbr || g[side].team;
+      const st = (g[side].arms || []).find((a) => a.started);
+      if (!team || !st) continue;
+      const half = side === 'home' ? 'top' : 'bottom';
+      const pas = g.pas.filter((p) => p.half === half && PA.has(p.event));
+      const post = pas.filter((p) => p.pitcher !== st.id);
+
+      // ── LINK 1, recomputed point-in-time, to define the concentrated subset ──
+      const priorStarts = startHist.get(st.id) || [];
+      let predBf = null;
+      if (priorStarts.length >= MIN_PRIOR_STARTS) {
+        const w = priorStarts.length / (priorStarts.length + STABILIZE);
+        predBf = w * mean(priorStarts) + (1 - w) * 21.56;   // league mean
+      }
+
+      // ── TARGET: the known quality of the arms that ACTUALLY appeared ──
+      const faced = [];
+      for (const p of post) {
+        const h = arm.get(p.pitcher);
+        if (!h || h.n < MIN_ARM_PA) continue;               // abstain, never 0
+        faced.push({ q: h.h / h.n, k: h.k / h.n });
+      }
+
+      // ── PREDICTION: this club's own pen, from prior games only ──
+      const hist = penHist.get(team) || [];
+      if (faced.length && hist.length >= 5 && predBf !== null) {
+        const predQ = mean(hist.map((x) => x.quality));
+        const predK = mean(hist.map((x) => x.k));
+        rows.push({
+          team,
+          gamePk: g.gamePk,
+          date: g.date,
+          pred_bf: predBf,
+          early_flagged: predBf <= EARLY_FLAG_BF,
+          pred_quality: predQ,
+          actual_quality: mean(faced.map((f) => f.q)),
+          pred_archetype: archetypeOf(predK),
+          actual_archetype: archetypeOf(mean(faced.map((f) => f.k))),
+          arms_faced: faced.length,
+        });
+      }
+
+      // Fold this game into history — never before predicting from it.
+      if (faced.length) {
+        penHist.set(team, hist.concat([{ quality: mean(faced.map((f) => f.q)), k: mean(faced.map((f) => f.k)) }]));
+      }
+      if (st.bf != null) startHist.set(st.id, priorStarts.concat([st.bf]));
+      for (const p of pas) {
+        const cur = arm.get(p.pitcher) || { n: 0, h: 0, k: 0 };
+        cur.n += 1;
+        cur.h += HIT.has(p.event) ? 1 : 0;
+        cur.k += p.event === 'strikeout' ? 1 : 0;
+        arm.set(p.pitcher, cur);
+      }
+    }
+  }
+  return rows;
+}
+
+function gateQuality(rows, leagueQ, cumulative, clusterKey, label) {
+  return pg.adjudicate(rows.map((r) => ({
+    cluster: r[clusterKey],
+    baseline: leagueQ,
+    prediction: r.pred_quality,
+    actual: r.actual_quality,
+  })), { link: label, loss: 'absolute', cumulativeTests: cumulative });
+}
+
+(async () => {
+  const all = build();
+  const subset = all.filter((r) => r.early_flagged);
+  const leagueQ = mean(all.map((r) => r.actual_quality));
+
+  let cumulative = 1;
+  try {
+    const sb = createClient(process.env.SUPABASE_URL,
+      process.env.SUPABASE_SERVICE_ROLE_KEY || process.env.SUPABASE_SERVICE_KEY,
+      { auth: { persistSession: false } });
+    const mc = await tl.recordAndCount(tl.supabaseStore(sb), [
+      { sport: 'mlb', stat: 'pen_quality', archetype: null, interaction: 'link2b:pen_quality', target: 'actual_arms' },
+      { sport: 'mlb', stat: 'pen_archetype', archetype: null, interaction: 'link2b:pen_archetype', target: 'actual_arms' },
+    ]);
+    cumulative = mc.cumulative_tests;
+  } catch { /* offline */ }
+
+  // ARCHETYPE grain — misclassification against the arms that actually appeared.
+  const archRows = subset.filter((r) => r.pred_archetype && r.actual_archetype);
+  const modal = (() => {
+    const c = new Map();
+    for (const r of all) c.set(r.actual_archetype, (c.get(r.actual_archetype) || 0) + 1);
+    return [...c.entries()].sort((a, b) => b[1] - a[1])[0][0];
+  })();
+  const archGate = pg.adjudicate(archRows.map((r) => ({
+    cluster: r.gamePk,
+    baseline: r.actual_archetype === modal ? 1 : 0,
+    prediction: r.actual_archetype === r.pred_archetype ? 1 : 0,
+    actual: 1,
+  })), { link: 'link2b_pen_archetype', loss: 'absolute', cumulativeTests: cumulative });
+
+  const acc = (rs, k) => (rs.length ? rs.filter((r) => r[k]).length / rs.length : null);
+
+  console.log(JSON.stringify({
+    link: 'LINK 2 (coarse) — pen quality + reliever archetype',
+    team_games_total: all.length,
+    concentrated_subset_elevated_early_exit: subset.length,
+    league_mean_pen_quality: round4(leagueQ),
+    cumulative_tests: cumulative,
+
+    quality_grain: {
+      on_concentrated_subset: gateQuality(subset, leagueQ, cumulative, 'gamePk', 'link2b_pen_quality_subset'),
+      sensitivity_team_clustered: gateQuality(subset, leagueQ, cumulative, 'team', 'link2b_pen_quality_teamclust'),
+      pooled_all_games: gateQuality(all, leagueQ, cumulative, 'gamePk', 'link2b_pen_quality_pooled'),
+    },
+
+    archetype_grain: {
+      n: archRows.length,
+      modal_archetype: modal,
+      baseline_accuracy_guess_modal: round4(acc(archRows.map((r) => ({ x: r.actual_archetype === modal })), 'x')),
+      model_accuracy: round4(acc(archRows.map((r) => ({ x: r.actual_archetype === r.pred_archetype })), 'x')),
+      verdict: archGate,
+    },
+
+    cluster_note: '76% of game pen-quality variance is WITHIN team, so the game is the honest cluster; team-clustered reported as the conservative sensitivity',
+  }, null, 2));
+  process.exit(0);
+})();
+
+const round4 = (v) => (v == null ? null : Math.round(v * 10000) / 10000);

scripts/lodo-calibration.js

@@ -0,0 +1,215 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env node
+'use strict';
+
+/**
+ * lodo-calibration — Phases 2 and 3.
+ *
+ * The ≥40 date-cluster floor was factorGate's interval bar for a CAUSAL claim,
+ * mis-applied to a monotone shrink-to-observed layer. Calibration makes no causal
+ * claim, consumes no Bonferroni slot, and has a bounded failure mode (it can only
+ * over- or under-shrink). Its real risk is that the correction is DATE-DRIVEN —
+ * that one unusual day's offensive environment is doing all the work.
+ *
+ * Leave-one-date-out tests exactly that, and it is a harder bar than a cluster
+ * count: a single date whose removal reverses the improvement, or flips the
+ * favourite-longshot sign, fails the stat outright.
+ *
+ * ── WHAT LODO IS AND IS NOT ──────────────────────────────────────────────
+ * Refitting on all-but-one date uses dates that follow the held-out one, so this
+ * is a STABILITY test, not a point-in-time backtest. The point-in-time result is
+ * separate and already established (fit-past / apply-forward, CI excluding zero
+ * on hits / TB / RBI). Both are required; neither substitutes for the other.
+ *
+ *   SUPABASE_URL=... node scripts/lodo-calibration.js
+ */
+
+require('dotenv').config();
+const fs = require('fs');
+const path = require('path');
+const { createClient } = require('@supabase/supabase-js');
+const cal = require('../src/services/model/calibration');
+const guards = require('../src/services/model/calibrationGuards');
+const { knownNumber } = require('../src/utils/known');
+
+const SB_URL = process.env.SUPABASE_URL;
+const SB_KEY = process.env.SUPABASE_SERVICE_ROLE_KEY || process.env.SUPABASE_SERVICE_KEY;
+const BOX = path.join(process.cwd(), '.seq-cache', 'batting-lines.json');
+const STATS = ['hits', 'total_bases', 'rbi', 'runs'];
+const PAGE = 1000;
+/** The favourite bucket where the over-prediction concentrates. */
+const FAVOURITE_FLOOR = 0.9;
+/**
+ * Minimum rows on a held-out date for that drop to be informative.
+ *
+ * POWER-DERIVED AND PRE-COMMITTED (n* = 70). Not chosen here, and not tunable
+ * from here -- it is imported so the value that decides the verdicts cannot be
+ * edited alongside them.
+ */
+const { LODO_TEST, LODO_POWER_FLOOR } = require('../src/services/model/calibrationRegistry');
+
+const FIELD = { hits: (b) => b.hits, total_bases: (b) => b.totalBases, rbi: (b) => b.rbi, runs: (b) => b.runs };
+const mean = (xs) => (xs.length ? xs.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / xs.length : null);
+
+async function page(sb, table, select, apply) {
+  const out = [];
+  for (let from = 0; ; from += PAGE) {
+    const { data, error } = await apply(sb.from(table).select(select))
+      .order('id', { ascending: true }).range(from, from + PAGE - 1);
+    if (error) throw error;
+    if (!data || data.length === 0) break;
+    out.push(...data);
+    if (data.length < PAGE) break;
+  }
+  return out;
+}
+
+const isPreGame = (capturedAt, gameDate) => {
+  const et = new Date(new Date(capturedAt).getTime() - 4 * 3600 * 1000);
+  const d = et.toISOString().slice(0, 10);
+  return d < gameDate || (d === gameDate && et.getUTCHours() < 19);
+};
+
+async function main() {
+  const sb = createClient(SB_URL, SB_KEY, { auth: { persistSession: false } });
+  const lines = JSON.parse(fs.readFileSync(BOX, 'utf8')).lines;
+
+  const snaps = await page(sb, 'model_snapshots',
+    'id, game_date, captured_at, stat, player_key, line, side, p_win, refused',
+    (q) => q.eq('sport', 'mlb').in('stat', STATS));
+
+  // Build the RAW population first so the guard has something to catch.
+  const raw = [];
+  const picked = new Map();
+  for (const r of snaps) {
+    if (!isPreGame(r.captured_at, r.game_date)) continue;
+    if (r.refused || knownNumber(r.p_win) === null) continue;
+    const propKey = [r.game_date, r.stat, r.player_key, r.line].join('|');
+    raw.push({ propKey, side: r.side, p: knownNumber(r.p_win) });
+    const prev = picked.get(propKey);
+    if (!prev || knownNumber(r.p_win) > knownNumber(prev.p_win)) picked.set(propKey, r);
+  }
+
+  // GUARD 1 — prove the raw population would have lied, then prove dedup fixes it.
+  const rawCheck = guards.checkPickedSideDedup(raw);
+  const pickedRows = [...picked.values()].map((r) => ({
+    propKey: [r.game_date, r.stat, r.player_key, r.line].join('|'),
+    side: r.side, p: knownNumber(r.p_win),
+  }));
+  guards.assertPickedSideDedup(pickedRows);          // throws if dedup failed
+
+  const out = {
+    guard_1_raw_population: { violated: rawCheck.violated, mean_p: rawCheck.mean_p, both_sides_share: rawCheck.both_sides_share },
+    guard_1_after_dedup: guards.checkPickedSideDedup(pickedRows),
+    per_stat: {},
+  };
+
+  for (const stat of STATS) {
+    const rows = [];
+    for (const r of picked.values()) {
+      if (r.stat !== stat) continue;
+      const b = lines[`${r.game_date}|${r.player_key}`];
+      const L = knownNumber(r.line);
+      if (!b || L === null || !r.side) continue;
+      const v = knownNumber(FIELD[stat](b));
+      if (v === null) continue;
+      const over = v > L;
+      rows.push({
+        date: r.game_date,
+        p: knownNumber(r.p_win),
+        won: (String(r.side).toLowerCase() === 'under' ? !over : over) ? 1 : 0,
+      });
+    }
+    const dates = [...new Set(rows.map((r) => r.date))].sort();
+
+    const full = cal.fitIsotonic(rows.map((r) => ({ p: r.p, won: r.won })));
+    if (!full) {
+      out.per_stat[stat] = {
+        n: rows.length, dates: dates.length,
+        lodo: 'NOT RUN', decision: 'REFUSE',
+        reason: `no isotonic map is fittable at n=${rows.length} (needs ${cal.MIN_TOTAL || 200})`,
+      };
+      continue;
+    }
+
+    // ── LEAVE ONE DATE OUT, at THIS stat's own informative bar ──
+    const spec = LODO_TEST[stat];
+    const MIN_HELD_ROWS = spec ? spec.n_star : Infinity;
+    const table = [];
+    for (const d of dates) {
+      const fit = rows.filter((r) => r.date !== d);
+      const held = rows.filter((r) => r.date === d);
+      if (held.length < MIN_HELD_ROWS) {
+        table.push({ dropped: d, held_n: held.length, verdict: 'UNINFORMATIVE', reason: 'too few rows on this date' });
+        continue;
+      }
+      const map = cal.fitIsotonic(fit.map((r) => ({ p: r.p, won: r.won })));
+      const applied = guards.applyOrRefuse(map, held, cal.applyIsotonic);
+      if (!applied.ok) {
+        table.push({ dropped: d, held_n: held.length, verdict: 'UNINFORMATIVE', reason: applied.reason });
+        continue;
+      }
+      const ys = applied.rows.map((r) => r.won);
+      const bRaw = guards.safeBrier(applied.rows.map((r) => r.p), ys);
+      const bCal = guards.safeBrier(applied.rows.map((r) => r.pc), ys);
+      if (bRaw === null || bCal === null) {
+        table.push({ dropped: d, held_n: held.length, verdict: 'UNINFORMATIVE', reason: 'a null reached the metric' });
+        continue;
+      }
+      const fav = applied.rows.filter((r) => r.p >= FAVOURITE_FLOOR);
+      const favBias = fav.length >= 5 ? mean(fav.map((r) => r.p)) - mean(fav.map((r) => r.won)) : null;
+      table.push({
+        dropped: d,
+        held_n: held.length,
+        brier_delta: round4(bCal - bRaw),
+        improves: bCal < bRaw,
+        favourite_n: fav.length,
+        favourite_bias: favBias === null ? null : round4(favBias),
+        favourite_sign_holds: favBias === null ? null : favBias > 0,
+        verdict: bCal < bRaw ? 'holds' : 'REVERSES',
+      });
+    }
+
+    const informative = table.filter((t) => t.verdict !== 'UNINFORMATIVE');
+    const reversals = informative.filter((t) => t.verdict === 'REVERSES');
+
+    // THE DECISION RULE IS BINOMIAL, not zero-tolerance. Under stability each
+    // informative drop reverses with prob Phi(-k), so demanding zero reversals
+    // failed stable stats roughly half the time.
+    const cutoff = spec ? spec.cutoff : 0;
+    const exceedsCutoff = reversals.length > cutoff;
+
+    // AND THE TEST MUST BE ABLE TO FAIL. Below the power floor it cannot, so it
+    // cannot pass either -- "could not test" must never read as "passed".
+    const underpowered = !spec || spec.power < LODO_POWER_FLOOR;
+    const verdict = underpowered ? 'UNTESTABLE_BY_LODO' : (exceedsCutoff ? 'FAIL' : 'PASS');
+    const passes = verdict === 'PASS';
+
+    out.per_stat[stat] = {
+      n: rows.length,
+      dates: dates.length,
+      lodo_table: table,
+      informative_drops: informative.length,
+      brier_reversals: informative.filter((t) => t.verdict === 'REVERSES').length,
+      favourite_sign_flips: informative.filter((t) => t.favourite_sign_holds === false).length,
+      favourite_sign_untested: informative.filter((t) => t.favourite_sign_holds === null).length,
+      n_star: spec ? spec.n_star : null,
+      cutoff,
+      reversal_count: reversals.length,
+      reversing_dates: reversals.map((t) => ({ date: t.dropped, held_n: t.held_n, delta: t.brier_delta })),
+      test_power: spec ? spec.power : null,
+      lodo: verdict,
+      reason: underpowered
+        ? `power ${spec ? spec.power : 0} < floor ${LODO_POWER_FLOOR} — this test would miss a real date-driven failure more than nine times in ten, so it can neither pass nor fail the stat`
+        : (exceedsCutoff
+          ? `${reversals.length} reversals among ${informative.length} informative drops exceeds the cutoff of ${cutoff}`
+          : `${reversals.length} reversals among ${informative.length} informative drops is within the cutoff of ${cutoff}`),
+    };
+  }
+
+  console.log(JSON.stringify(out, null, 2));
+  process.exit(0);
+}
+
+const round4 = (v) => (v == null || !Number.isFinite(v) ? null : Math.round(v * 10000) / 10000);
+
+main().catch((e) => { console.error(e); process.exit(1); });

scripts/prove-hit-factors.js

@@ -54,12 +54,14 @@ const FACTORS = [
   {
     key: 'defense_by_direction',
     needs: ['spray_multiplier'],
+    entity: (r) => `${r.player_key}|${r.opp}`,
     mechanism: 'CAUSALLY-CORRECT DEFENCE. Where the hitter puts the ball (pull/straight/oppo x ground/air) crossed with the OAA of the fielders actually standing in those zones, joined by handedness. Team-average failed the gate because it averages in five fielders who will never touch his ball.',
     apply: (r) => r.spray_multiplier,
   },
   {
     key: 'defense',
     needs: ['team_defense'],
+    entity: (r) => r.opp,
     mechanism: 'A ball in play becomes a hit or an out partly by who is standing behind the pitcher. Should matter most where contact stays in the park.',
     // More outs converted above average -> fewer hits.
     apply: (r) => 1 - Math.max(-0.12, Math.min(0.12, r.team_defense / 250)),
@@ -67,12 +69,14 @@ const FACTORS = [
   {
     key: 'pitcher_contact_profile',
     needs: ['pitcher_hard_hit_allowed'],
+    entity: (r) => r.starter_id,
     mechanism: 'A contact-allowing arm concedes better contact than a bat-misser; hit probability should follow the quality of contact he permits.',
     apply: (r) => 1 + Math.max(-0.15, Math.min(0.15, (r.pitcher_hard_hit_allowed - 0.389) * 1.2)),
   },
   {
     key: 'park_hits',
     needs: ['park_factor'],
+    entity: (r) => r.park_factor,
     mechanism: 'Some parks turn outs into hits without producing runs — big outfields, high walls, deep gaps.',
     apply: (r) => r.park_factor,
     caveat: 'STAT_BASE maps hits -> run_base, so this is a RUN factor standing in for a HITS factor. A park that converts outs to hits without scoring is invisible to it.',
@@ -80,12 +84,14 @@ const FACTORS = [
   {
     key: 'platoon_severity',
     needs: ['platoon_severity_mult'],
+    entity: (r) => r.player_key,
     mechanism: "CAUSALLY-CORRECT PLATOON. The advantage is worth only what THIS hitter's measured split is worth, shrunk toward league by the smaller side's PA and refused outright below a floor. Flat handedness applies the same boost to a 63-point split and to none.",
     apply: (r) => r.platoon_severity_mult,
   },
   {
     key: 'platoon',
     needs: ['platoon_edge'],
+    entity: (r) => r.player_key,
     mechanism: 'Handedness advantage — a hitter facing the opposite hand sees the ball better and hits it harder.',
     apply: (r) => (r.platoon_edge > 0 ? 1.06 : 0.96),
   },
@@ -128,7 +134,7 @@ async function main() {
   for (const s of snaps) archOf.set(`${s.player_key}|${s.game_date}`, s.archetype);
 
   const led = await page(sb, 'ledger_entries',
-    'id, player_key, player_name, line, side, outcome, game_date, p_win, quarantine_reason, env_park_base',
+    'id, game_id, player_key, player_name, line, side, outcome, game_date, p_win, quarantine_reason, env_park_base',
     (q) => q.eq('sport', 'mlb').is('user_id', null).eq('stat', 'hits')
       .in('outcome', ['hit', 'miss']).not('p_win', 'is', null));
   const clean = led.filter((r) => !(r.quarantine_reason || '').startsWith('nontakeable_book'));
@@ -165,20 +171,34 @@ async function main() {
     byPlayer.set(r.player_key, cur);
   }
 
+  const loss = { no_batter_profile: 0, thin_base_rate: 0, no_opponent: 0, no_pitcher: 0, kept: 0 };
   const rows = [];
   for (const r of clean) {
     const bat = batters.get(r.player_key);
     const bp = byPlayer.get(r.player_key);
-    if (!bp || bp.n < 3) continue;
+    if (!bat) loss.no_batter_profile += 1;
+    if (!bp || bp.n < 3) { loss.thin_base_rate += 1; continue; }
     // Leave-one-out so a row never contributes to its own baseline.
     const baseline = (bp.w - (r.outcome === 'hit' ? 1 : 0)) / (bp.n - 1);
     const faced = oppBy.get(`${r.player_key}|${r.game_date}`) || null;
     const nick = faced ? String(faced).split(' ').pop() : null;
     const def = faced ? (defByTeam.get(faced) || defByTeam.get(nick)) : null;
+    if (!faced) loss.no_opponent += 1;
     const starterId = faced ? startersBy.get(`${r.game_date}|OPP:${faced}`) : null;
     const pit = starterId != null ? pitchersById.get(Number(starterId)) : null;
+    if (faced && !pit) loss.no_pitcher += 1;
+    loss.kept += 1;
     rows.push({
       id: r.id,
+      // Errors are correlated WITHIN a game — shared starter, park, weather and
+      // the game's own randomness — so the interval must be clustered on it.
+      // Three of these factors (pitcher profile, team defence, park) are also
+      // CONSTANT across every hitter facing that starter, which makes row
+      // resampling straightforwardly wrong for them.
+      cluster: r.game_id,
+      opp: faced,
+      starter_id: starterId != null ? Number(starterId) : null,
+      player_key: r.player_key,
       archetype: archOf.get(`${r.player_key}|${r.game_date}`) || null,
       won: r.outcome === 'hit' ? 1 : 0,
       baseline,
@@ -214,15 +234,43 @@ async function main() {
   const mc = await tl.recordAndCount(store, FACTORS.flatMap((f) =>
     ARCHS.map((a) => ({ sport: 'mlb', stat: 'hits', archetype: a === 'ALL' ? null : a, interaction: `factor:${f.key}`, target: 'outcome' }))));
 
+  // STEP 1 — FULL-HISTORY SAMPLE AUDIT PER SLOT, before any gating.
+  const audit = [];
+  for (const f of FACTORS) {
+    for (const arch of ARCHS) {
+      const slot = arch === 'ALL' ? rows : rows.filter((r) => String(r.archetype || '').toUpperCase() === arch);
+      const usable = slot.filter((r) => f.needs.every((k) => knownNumber(r[k]) !== null));
+      audit.push({
+        factor: f.key,
+        archetype: arch,
+        rows: usable.length,
+        games: new Set(usable.map((r) => r.cluster).filter(Boolean)).size,
+        players: new Set(usable.map((r) => r.player_key)).size,
+      });
+    }
+  }
+
   const results = [];
   for (const arch of ARCHS) {
     const slot = arch === 'ALL' ? rows : rows.filter((r) => String(r.archetype || '').toUpperCase() === arch);
     for (const f of FACTORS) {
       const usable = slot.filter((r) => f.needs.every((k) => knownNumber(r[k]) !== null));
+      // A park effect is replicated across PARKS, not across games: 619 rows in
+      // 45 games still only ever saw ~23 ballparks, and unmodelled park
+      // heterogeneity is confounded with the very thing being estimated. So the
+      // cluster is the COARSER of the game and the entity the treatment rides on.
+      const ents = f.entity ? new Set(usable.map((r) => String(f.entity(r)))) : null;
+      const games = new Set(usable.map((r) => String(r.cluster)));
+      const useEntity = ents && ents.size < games.size;
       const paired = usable.map((r) => {
         const mult = f.apply(r);
         const cond = mult === null ? null : Math.min(0.99, Math.max(0.01, r.baseline * mult));
-        return { baseline: r.baseline, conditioned: cond, won: r.won };
+        return {
+          baseline: r.baseline,
+          conditioned: cond,
+          won: r.won,
+          cluster: useEntity ? `e:${f.entity(r)}` : r.cluster,
+        };
       });
       const v = fg.adjudicate(paired, {
         factor: f.key, archetype: arch, stat: 'hits',
@@ -230,6 +278,10 @@ async function main() {
       });
       results.push({
         archetype: arch, factor: f.key, n: v.movement.n,
+        clusters: v.improvement ? v.improvement.effective_n : null,
+        cluster_unit: useEntity ? 'treatment_entity' : 'game',
+        distinct_games: games.size,
+        distinct_entities: ents ? ents.size : null,
         mean_abs_shift: v.movement.mean_abs_shift,
         brier_delta: v.improvement ? v.improvement.brier_delta : null,
         ci: v.improvement ? v.improvement.ci : null,
@@ -244,6 +296,9 @@ async function main() {
   console.log(JSON.stringify({
     baseline: "each row scored against the player's OWN leave-one-out base rate — the honest 'he's due' null",
     total_rows: rows.length,
+    slot_audit: audit,
+    clean_settled_rows_available: clean.length,
+    row_loss: loss,
     cumulative_bonferroni: mc,
     gate: 'a factor must MOVE the prediction AND improve out-of-sample Brier; movement alone is THEATER',
     results,

scripts/prove-park-weather.js

@@ -0,0 +1,121 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env node
+'use strict';
+
+/**
+ * prove-park-weather — DOES PARK GEOMETRY AND AIR READ TOTAL BASES?
+ *
+ * Run through the two-part gate like every other factor, with one addition that
+ * changes the answer: the rows are CLUSTERED BY GAME. Park and weather assign a
+ * single value to every hitter in a ballpark on a night, so eighteen prop rows
+ * from one game are one reading of that game's conditions. Resampling rows would
+ * treat them as eighteen and hand back an interval far tighter than the evidence
+ * supports — which is how a gate passes a factor on sample it never had.
+ *
+ *   SUPABASE_URL=... node scripts/prove-park-weather.js
+ */
+
+require('dotenv').config();
+const { createClient } = require('@supabase/supabase-js');
+const pw = require('../src/services/model/parkWeather');
+const fg = require('../src/services/model/factorGate');
+const tl = require('../src/services/model/testLedger');
+const { knownNumber } = require('../src/utils/known');
+
+const SB_URL = process.env.SUPABASE_URL;
+const SB_KEY = process.env.SUPABASE_SERVICE_ROLE_KEY || process.env.SUPABASE_SERVICE_KEY;
+const PAGE = 1000;
+
+async function page(sb, table, select, apply) {
+  const out = [];
+  for (let from = 0; ; from += PAGE) {
+    const { data, error } = await apply(sb.from(table).select(select)).range(from, from + PAGE - 1);
+    if (error) throw error;
+    if (!data || data.length === 0) break;
+    out.push(...data);
+    if (data.length < PAGE) break;
+  }
+  return out;
+}
+
+/** Hit-type shares → expected total bases, so a reshape has a consequence. */
+const tbFromShares = (s) => s.single + 2 * s.double + 3 * s.triple + 4 * s.home_run;
+
+async function main() {
+  const sb = createClient(SB_URL, SB_KEY, { auth: { persistSession: false } });
+
+  const parks = await page(sb, 'park_dimensions', '*', (q) => q.eq('sport', 'mlb'));
+  const byVenue = new Map();
+  for (const p of parks) if (!byVenue.has(p.venue_id)) byVenue.set(p.venue_id, p);
+  const league = pw.leagueGeometry([...byVenue.values()]);
+
+  const ctx = await page(sb, 'game_context', 'game_id, venue_id, wx_temp_f, wx_wind_speed_mph, wx_wind_direction_deg', (q) => q);
+  const ctxBy = new Map(ctx.map((c) => [c.game_id, c]));
+
+  const led = await page(sb, 'ledger_entries',
+    'game_id, game_date, player_key, stat, line, side, outcome, quarantine_reason, p_win, proj_hits_p_over',
+    (q) => q.eq('sport', 'mlb').is('user_id', null).eq('stat', 'total_bases').in('outcome', ['hit', 'miss']));
+  const clean = led.filter((r) => !(r.quarantine_reason || '').startsWith('nontakeable_book'));
+
+  // League-typical hit-type shares — the shape the atom reshapes.
+  const BASE_SHARES = { single: 0.655, double: 0.195, triple: 0.017, home_run: 0.133 };
+  const baseTb = tbFromShares(BASE_SHARES);
+
+  const loss = { no_context: 0, no_venue: 0, no_park: 0, no_baseline: 0, kept: 0 };
+  const rows = [];
+  for (const r of clean) {
+    const c = ctxBy.get(r.game_id);
+    if (!c) { loss.no_context += 1; continue; }
+    if (c.venue_id == null) { loss.no_venue += 1; continue; }
+    const dims = byVenue.get(c.venue_id);
+    if (!dims) { loss.no_park += 1; continue; }
+
+    const baseline = knownNumber(r.p_win);
+    if (baseline === null) { loss.no_baseline += 1; continue; }
+
+    const read = pw.parkWeatherRead({ dims, wx: c, league });
+    if (!read) { loss.no_park += 1; continue; }
+
+    // The atom reshapes hit type; the consequence for total bases is the ratio
+    // of expected bases per hit under the reshaped shape.
+    const shaped = pw.applyToShares(BASE_SHARES, read);
+    const ratio = tbFromShares(shaped) / baseTb;
+    const conditioned = Math.max(0.01, Math.min(0.99, baseline * ratio));
+
+    rows.push({
+      cluster: r.game_id,               // ONE reading per game — the whole point
+      baseline,
+      conditioned,
+      won: r.outcome === 'hit' ? 1 : 0,
+    });
+    loss.kept += 1;
+  }
+
+  // Cumulative Bonferroni across the programme lifetime — this hypothesis is
+  // one more test, and the bar rises for it like every other.
+  const mc = await tl.recordAndCount(tl.supabaseStore(sb), [
+    { sport: 'mlb', stat: 'total_bases', archetype: null, interaction: 'factor:park_weather_hit_type', target: 'outcome' },
+  ]);
+  const verdict = fg.adjudicate(rows, {
+    factor: 'park_weather_hit_type',
+    stat: 'total_bases',
+    cumulativeTests: mc.cumulative_tests,
+  });
+
+  const games = new Set(rows.map((r) => r.cluster)).size;
+  const venues = new Set(clean.map((r) => ctxBy.get(r.game_id)?.venue_id).filter((v) => v != null)).size;
+
+  console.log(JSON.stringify({
+    clean_settled_tb_rows: clean.length,
+    rows_built: rows.length,
+    row_loss: loss,
+    distinct_games: games,
+    distinct_venues: venues,
+    rows_per_game: games ? Math.round((rows.length / games) * 10) / 10 : null,
+    cumulative_tests: mc.cumulative_tests,
+    verdict,
+    honest_note: 'sample judged in GAMES, not prop rows — park and weather vary per game',
+  }, null, 2));
+  process.exit(0);
+}
+
+main().catch((e) => { console.error(e); process.exit(1); });

scripts/prove-runs-rbi.js

@@ -0,0 +1,301 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env node
+'use strict';
+
+/**
+ * prove-runs-rbi — THE CONTEXT-HEAVY STATS, WHERE INFLATION IS EASIEST.
+ *
+ * A large share of both stats is genuinely outside the hitter's control: a run
+ * needs someone behind you, an RBI needs someone in front of you. The job is to
+ * prove the HITTER-CONTROLLABLE part above the archetype's own base rate and
+ * grade the rest honestly as base-rate — which is the CORRECT answer for a
+ * context stat, not a failure to find something.
+ *
+ * ── THE NULL IS THE ARCHETYPE'S BASE RATE ────────────────────────────────
+ * Deliberately, and per the order: these base rates are spread and
+ * context-inflated, so beating "hitters like him" is the only meaningful bar. A
+ * per-player leave-one-out rate is not available here — 935 RBI rows over 344
+ * players is ~2.7 rows each, and estimating a personal rate from two rows would
+ * be inventing one. Leave-one-out is applied at the ARCHETYPE level so a row
+ * never contributes to its own baseline.
+ *
+ * ── INPUTS RECONSTRUCTED RATHER THAN DECLARED MISSING ────────────────────
+ * `lineup_context` only starts 2026-08-04 (ingest began last week) while settled
+ * rows run from 07-31, so only 187 of 617 runs rows join to a batting order.
+ * That would be input-blocked — except the play-by-play cache covers 05-01
+ * onward, and the batting order IS the order batters first appear. Reach-base
+ * skill and lineup power behind are derived from the same cache, point-in-time.
+ *
+ *   SUPABASE_URL=... node scripts/prove-runs-rbi.js
+ */
+
+require('dotenv').config();
+const fs = require('fs');
+const path = require('path');
+const { createClient } = require('@supabase/supabase-js');
+const fg = require('../src/services/model/factorGate');
+const tl = require('../src/services/model/testLedger');
+const sk = require('../src/services/model/skillProjection');
+const { knownNumber, knownRate } = require('../src/utils/known');
+const { nameKey } = require('../src/utils/playerName');
+
+const SB_URL = process.env.SUPABASE_URL;
+const SB_KEY = process.env.SUPABASE_SERVICE_ROLE_KEY || process.env.SUPABASE_SERVICE_KEY;
+const CACHE = process.env.SEQ_OUT || path.join(process.cwd(), '.seq-cache', 'sequences.json');
+const PAGE = 1000;
+const ARCHS = (process.env.RR_ARCHETYPES || 'ALL,BOMBER,GHOST,BRUSH,DRIVER').split(',');
+
+const HIT = new Set(['single', 'double', 'triple', 'home_run']);
+const ONBASE = new Set(['single', 'double', 'triple', 'home_run', 'walk', 'hit_by_pitch', 'intent_walk']);
+const PA_EVENT = new Set([...HIT, 'field_out', 'strikeout', 'grounded_into_double_play', 'force_out',
+  'field_error', 'fielders_choice', 'fielders_choice_out', 'double_play', 'sac_fly', 'pop_out',
+  'line_out', 'fly_out', 'strikeout_double_play', 'walk', 'hit_by_pitch', 'intent_walk']);
+
+const mean = (xs) => (xs.length ? xs.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / xs.length : null);
+
+async function page(sb, table, select, apply) {
+  const out = [];
+  for (let from = 0; ; from += PAGE) {
+    const { data, error } = await apply(sb.from(table).select(select)).range(from, from + PAGE - 1);
+    if (error) throw error;
+    if (!data || data.length === 0) break;
+    out.push(...data);
+    if (data.length < PAGE) break;
+  }
+  return out;
+}
+
+/**
+ * Reconstruct, point-in-time, from play-by-play:
+ *   order[date|nameKey]      the hitter's batting slot that game
+ *   behind[date|nameKey]     mean barrel-ish power of the three slots after him
+ *   onbase[nameKey]          his reach-base rate over PRIOR games only
+ */
+function reconstruct(barrelByKey) {
+  const { games } = JSON.parse(fs.readFileSync(CACHE, 'utf8'));
+  games.sort((a, b) => String(a.date).localeCompare(String(b.date)) || a.gamePk - b.gamePk);
+
+  const order = new Map();
+  const behind = new Map();
+  const onbaseNow = new Map();      // running totals, folded in AFTER each game
+  const onbasePrior = new Map();    // snapshot used for that game's rows
+
+  for (const g of games) {
+    for (const half of ['top', 'bottom']) {
+      const pas = g.pas.filter((p) => p.half === half && PA_EVENT.has(p.event));
+      if (!pas.length) continue;
+
+      // The batting order IS the order batters first appear.
+      const seen = [];
+      const seenSet = new Set();
+      for (const p of pas) {
+        if (!seenSet.has(p.batter)) { seenSet.add(p.batter); seen.push(p); }
+        if (seen.length >= 9) break;
+      }
+      const slots = seen.map((p) => ({ id: p.batter, key: nameKey(p.batter_name || '') }));
+
+      for (let i = 0; i < slots.length; i += 1) {
+        const k = `${g.date}|${slots[i].key}`;
+        order.set(k, i + 1);
+        // Power BEHIND him — the hitters who would drive him in.
+        const nxt = [1, 2, 3].map((d) => slots[(i + d) % slots.length])
+          .map((s) => (s ? knownRate(barrelByKey.get(s.key)) : null))
+          .filter((v) => v !== null);
+        if (nxt.length) behind.set(k, mean(nxt));
+        const prior = onbaseNow.get(slots[i].key);
+        if (prior && prior.pa >= 60) onbasePrior.set(k, prior.ob / prior.pa);
+      }
+      for (const p of pas) {
+        const key = nameKey(p.batter_name || '');
+        const cur = onbaseNow.get(key) || { pa: 0, ob: 0 };
+        cur.pa += 1; cur.ob += ONBASE.has(p.event) ? 1 : 0;
+        onbaseNow.set(key, cur);
+      }
+    }
+  }
+  return { order, behind, onbase: onbasePrior };
+}
+
+/** RBI and RUNS have different causal stories, so different factors. */
+const FACTORS = {
+  rbi: [
+    {
+      key: 'risp_opportunity',
+      needs: ['risp_share'],
+      entity: (r) => r.player_key,
+      mechanism: 'HOW OFTEN HE BATS WITH RUNNERS IN SCORING POSITION. Half of an RBI is opportunity, and this is the ingested measure of it.',
+      apply: (r) => 1 + Math.max(-0.20, Math.min(0.20, (r.risp_share - 0.22) * 1.6)),
+    },
+    {
+      key: 'extra_base_skill',
+      needs: ['barrel_pct'],
+      entity: (r) => r.player_key,
+      mechanism: 'The other half — having batted with runners on, can he drive them in.',
+      apply: (r) => 1 + Math.max(-0.20, Math.min(0.20, (r.barrel_pct - 0.078) * 1.8)),
+    },
+    {
+      key: 'risp_x_extra_base',
+      needs: ['risp_share', 'barrel_pct'],
+      entity: (r) => r.player_key,
+      mechanism: 'THE CAUSALLY-CORRECT COMPOUND: opportunity AND the power to convert it. Neither half alone is an RBI.',
+      apply: (r) => (1 + Math.max(-0.20, Math.min(0.20, (r.risp_share - 0.22) * 1.6)))
+        * (1 + Math.max(-0.20, Math.min(0.20, (r.barrel_pct - 0.078) * 1.8))),
+    },
+  ],
+  runs: [
+    {
+      key: 'reach_base',
+      needs: ['onbase'],
+      entity: (r) => r.player_key,
+      mechanism: 'You cannot score without first reaching base. The most hitter-controllable component of a run.',
+      apply: (r) => 1 + Math.max(-0.25, Math.min(0.25, (r.onbase - 0.318) * 2.2)),
+    },
+    {
+      key: 'lineup_power_behind',
+      needs: ['power_behind'],
+      entity: (r) => `${r.game_id}|${r.batting_order}`,
+      mechanism: 'Who bats after him — the hitters who would drive him in. Pure context, and the part he does not control.',
+      apply: (r) => 1 + Math.max(-0.20, Math.min(0.20, (r.power_behind - 0.078) * 1.8)),
+    },
+    {
+      key: 'reach_x_power_behind',
+      needs: ['onbase', 'power_behind'],
+      entity: (r) => r.player_key,
+      mechanism: 'THE CAUSALLY-CORRECT COMPOUND: reach base AND have someone behind you who can drive you in.',
+      apply: (r) => (1 + Math.max(-0.25, Math.min(0.25, (r.onbase - 0.318) * 2.2)))
+        * (1 + Math.max(-0.20, Math.min(0.20, (r.power_behind - 0.078) * 1.8))),
+    },
+  ],
+};
+
+async function main() {
+  const sb = createClient(SB_URL, SB_KEY, { auth: { persistSession: false } });
+
+  const statcast = await page(sb, 'statcast_aggregates', '*', (q) => q.eq('sport', 'mlb').eq('role', 'batter'));
+  const batByKey = new Map();
+  const barrelByKey = new Map();
+  for (const r of statcast) {
+    if (!r.player_key) continue;
+    const prof = sk.fromStatcastRow(r);
+    batByKey.set(r.player_key, prof);
+    if (prof.barrel_pct != null) barrelByKey.set(r.player_key, prof.barrel_pct);
+  }
+
+  const oppRows = await page(sb, 'hitter_opportunity', '*', (q) => q.eq('sport', 'mlb'));
+  const oppByKey = new Map();
+  for (const r of oppRows) {
+    const prev = oppByKey.get(r.player_key);
+    if (!prev || String(r.as_of_date) > String(prev.as_of_date)) oppByKey.set(r.player_key, r);
+  }
+
+  const recon = reconstruct(barrelByKey);
+
+  const out = { generated_note: 'null is the ARCHETYPE base rate, leave-one-out' };
+
+  for (const stat of ['rbi', 'runs']) {
+    const snaps = await page(sb, 'model_snapshots', 'player_key, game_date, archetype',
+      (q) => q.eq('sport', 'mlb').eq('stat', stat).not('archetype', 'is', null));
+    const archOf = new Map();
+    for (const s of snaps) archOf.set(`${s.player_key}|${s.game_date}`, s.archetype);
+
+    const led = await page(sb, 'ledger_entries',
+      'id, game_id, player_key, player_name, line, side, outcome, game_date, p_win, quarantine_reason',
+      (q) => q.eq('sport', 'mlb').is('user_id', null).eq('stat', stat).in('outcome', ['hit', 'miss']));
+    const clean = led.filter((r) => !(r.quarantine_reason || '').startsWith('nontakeable_book')
+      && knownNumber(r.line) === 0.5);
+
+    // Archetype-level leave-one-out base rate — the context-inflated null.
+    const byArch = new Map();
+    for (const r of clean) {
+      const a = String(archOf.get(`${r.player_key}|${r.game_date}`) || 'UNLABELLED').toUpperCase();
+      const cur = byArch.get(a) || { n: 0, w: 0 };
+      cur.n += 1; cur.w += r.outcome === 'hit' ? 1 : 0;
+      byArch.set(a, cur);
+    }
+
+    const rows = [];
+    const loss = { no_archetype_base: 0, kept: 0 };
+    for (const r of clean) {
+      const a = String(archOf.get(`${r.player_key}|${r.game_date}`) || 'UNLABELLED').toUpperCase();
+      const ab = byArch.get(a);
+      if (!ab || ab.n < 4) { loss.no_archetype_base += 1; continue; }
+      const baseline = (ab.w - (r.outcome === 'hit' ? 1 : 0)) / (ab.n - 1);
+      const bat = batByKey.get(r.player_key);
+      const opp = oppByKey.get(r.player_key);
+      const okey = `${r.game_date}|${r.player_key}`;
+      rows.push({
+        archetype: a,
+        player_key: r.player_key,
+        game_id: r.game_id,
+        cluster: r.game_id,
+        baseline,
+        won: r.outcome === 'hit' ? 1 : 0,
+        risp_share: opp ? knownNumber(opp.risp_share) : null,
+        barrel_pct: bat ? knownRate(bat.barrel_pct) : null,
+        onbase: recon.onbase.has(okey) ? recon.onbase.get(okey) : null,
+        power_behind: recon.behind.has(okey) ? recon.behind.get(okey) : null,
+        batting_order: recon.order.get(okey) ?? null,
+      });
+      loss.kept += 1;
+    }
+
+    const mc = await tl.recordAndCount(tl.supabaseStore(sb), FACTORS[stat].flatMap((f) =>
+      ARCHS.map((a) => ({
+        sport: 'mlb', stat, archetype: a === 'ALL' ? null : a,
+        interaction: `factor:${f.key}`, target: 'outcome',
+      }))));
+
+    const audit = [];
+    const results = [];
+    for (const arch of ARCHS) {
+      const slot = arch === 'ALL' ? rows : rows.filter((r) => r.archetype === arch);
+      for (const f of FACTORS[stat]) {
+        const usable = slot.filter((r) => f.needs.every((k) => knownNumber(r[k]) !== null));
+        const ents = new Set(usable.map((r) => String(f.entity(r))));
+        const games = new Set(usable.map((r) => String(r.cluster)));
+        if (arch === 'ALL') {
+          audit.push({ factor: f.key, archetype: arch, rows: usable.length, games: games.size, entities: ents.size });
+        }
+        const useEntity = ents.size < games.size;
+        const paired = usable.map((r) => {
+          const m = f.apply(r);
+          return {
+            baseline: r.baseline,
+            conditioned: m === null ? null : Math.min(0.99, Math.max(0.01, r.baseline * m)),
+            won: r.won,
+            cluster: useEntity ? `e:${f.entity(r)}` : r.cluster,
+          };
+        });
+        const v = fg.adjudicate(paired, { factor: f.key, archetype: arch, stat, cumulativeTests: mc.cumulative_tests });
+        results.push({
+          archetype: arch, factor: f.key, n: v.movement.n,
+          clusters: v.improvement ? v.improvement.effective_n : null,
+          clustered_on: useEntity ? 'treatment_entity' : 'game',
+          distinct_games: games.size,
+          mean_abs_shift: v.movement.mean_abs_shift,
+          brier_delta: v.improvement ? v.improvement.brier_delta : null,
+          ci: v.improvement ? v.improvement.ci : null,
+          verdict: v.verdict,
+        });
+      }
+    }
+
+    out[stat] = {
+      clean_rows_line_0_5: clean.length,
+      rows_built: rows.length,
+      row_loss: loss,
+      distinct_games: new Set(rows.map((r) => r.cluster)).size,
+      archetype_base_rates: Object.fromEntries([...byArch.entries()]
+        .sort((a, b) => b[1].n - a[1].n)
+        .map(([a, v]) => [a, { n: v.n, base_rate: Math.round((v.w / v.n) * 10000) / 10000 }])),
+      cumulative_tests: mc.cumulative_tests,
+      input_audit: audit,
+      results,
+      proven: results.filter((r) => r.verdict === 'PROVES'),
+    };
+  }
+
+  console.log(JSON.stringify(out, null, 2));
+  process.exit(0);
+}
+
+main().catch((e) => { console.error(e); process.exit(1); });

scripts/prove-tb-factors.js

@@ -0,0 +1,345 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env node
+'use strict';
+
+/**
+ * prove-tb-factors — TOTAL BASES IS A DIFFERENT EVENT FROM HITS.
+ *
+ * A hit asks whether the ball found a hole. Total bases asks how hard and how
+ * far it was struck. So the causally-correct factors differ, and the
+ * archetype differential is expected to INVERT: contact defence proved for hits,
+ * where a slap single is worth exactly one base regardless of who fielded it;
+ * for total bases the value should live with the power profiles.
+ *
+ * ── THE BASELINE IS THE CHAMPION, NOT "HE'S DUE" ─────────────────────────
+ * The hits gate used the player's own leave-one-out base rate as the null. That
+ * cannot be reproduced here: total-bases lines VARY (1.5 on 559 rows, 0.5 on
+ * 345, 2.5 on 45), and a player's rate of clearing 1.5 bases is a different
+ * quantity from his rate of clearing 0.5. With 988 rows over 341 players there
+ * are roughly two rows per player-line — far too thin to estimate a per-line
+ * personal base rate without inventing one.
+ *
+ * So the null here is the COUNTER'S OWN FORECAST (p_win), which already prices
+ * the line. That is a strictly HARDER null than a base rate, not an easier one:
+ * a factor must improve on the champion, not merely on "he's due". Stated
+ * plainly because it differs from the hits run and the difference matters when
+ * comparing the two.
+ *
+ *   SUPABASE_URL=... node scripts/prove-tb-factors.js
+ */
+
+require('dotenv').config();
+const { createClient } = require('@supabase/supabase-js');
+const fg = require('../src/services/model/factorGate');
+const sk = require('../src/services/model/skillProjection');
+const tl = require('../src/services/model/testLedger');
+const mlb = require('../src/services/adapters/mlbStatsAdapter');
+const { knownNumber, knownRate } = require('../src/utils/known');
+const { nameKey } = require('../src/utils/playerName');
+const sd = require('../src/services/model/sprayDefense');
+const pss = require('../src/services/model/platoonSeverity');
+const pw = require('../src/services/model/parkWeather');
+
+/** League-typical hit-type shares; the atom reshapes these and TB follows. */
+const BASE_SHARES = { single: 0.655, double: 0.195, triple: 0.017, home_run: 0.133 };
+const tbFrom = (s) => s.single + 2 * s.double + 3 * s.triple + 4 * s.home_run;
+
+const SB_URL = process.env.SUPABASE_URL;
+const SB_KEY = process.env.SUPABASE_SERVICE_ROLE_KEY || process.env.SUPABASE_SERVICE_KEY;
+const PAGE = 1000;
+const ARCHS = (process.env.TB_ARCHETYPES || 'ALL,BOMBER,GHOST,BRUSH,DRIVER').split(',');
+
+async function page(sb, table, select, apply) {
+  const out = [];
+  for (let from = 0; ; from += PAGE) {
+    const { data, error } = await apply(sb.from(table).select(select)).range(from, from + PAGE - 1);
+    if (error) throw error;
+    if (!data || data.length === 0) break;
+    out.push(...data);
+    if (data.length < PAGE) break;
+  }
+  return out;
+}
+
+/**
+ * THE FACTORS. Each returns a MULTIPLIER on the base rate, or null when the
+ * input is absent — an absent factor must leave the baseline untouched rather
+ * than nudge it toward some default.
+ */
+const FACTORS = [
+  {
+    key: 'barrel_rate',
+    needs: ['barrel_pct'],
+    entity: (r) => r.player_key,
+    mechanism: 'THE EXTRA-BASE SKILL ITSELF. A barrel is the exit-velocity and launch-angle combination that produces extra bases; it is the most direct expression of what total bases measures, where for hits it is largely irrelevant to whether a grounder finds a hole.',
+    // UNITS: fromStatcastRow returns barrel_pct as a FRACTION (0.06), not the
+    // 0-100 the raw table stores. Writing this against the percentage scale
+    // clamped every row to the maximum negative shift, which then "improved"
+    // Brier only by leaning on the counter's known global over-prediction.
+    apply: (r) => 1 + Math.max(-0.20, Math.min(0.20, (r.barrel_pct - 0.078) * 1.8)),
+  },
+  {
+    key: 'exit_velo',
+    needs: ['avg_exit_velo'],
+    entity: (r) => r.player_key,
+    mechanism: 'How hard the ball leaves the bat. Separates a double in the gap from a fly out, which is exactly the margin total bases lives on.',
+    apply: (r) => 1 + Math.max(-0.15, Math.min(0.15, (r.avg_exit_velo - 88.9) * 0.020)),
+  },
+  {
+    key: 'hard_contact_allowed',
+    needs: ['pitcher_hard_hit_allowed'],
+    entity: (r) => r.starter_id,
+    mechanism: 'A pitcher who concedes hard contact concedes EXTRA BASES, not just hits. For total bases this should read stronger than it did for hits.',
+    apply: (r) => 1 + Math.max(-0.15, Math.min(0.15, (r.pitcher_hard_hit_allowed - 0.389) * 1.2)),
+  },
+  {
+    key: 'park_weather_hit_type',
+    needs: ['park_weather_ratio'],
+    entity: (r) => r.park_weather_ratio,
+    mechanism: 'Whether a struck ball becomes a double, clears the fence, or dies at the track. The atom reshapes HIT TYPE rather than P(hit), which is the only form that can express a total-bases effect.',
+    apply: (r) => r.park_weather_ratio,
+    caveat: 'venue-borne: replication caps at the number of distinct park readings, not the row count',
+  },
+  {
+    key: 'platoon_severity',
+    needs: ['platoon_severity_mult'],
+    entity: (r) => r.player_key,
+    mechanism: "The hitter's OWN measured split, shrunk by the smaller side's plate appearances and refused below a floor.",
+    apply: (r) => r.platoon_severity_mult,
+  },
+];
+
+async function main() {
+  if (!SB_URL || !SB_KEY) throw new Error('SUPABASE_URL / service key required');
+  const sb = createClient(SB_URL, SB_KEY, { auth: { persistSession: false } });
+
+  const statcast = await page(sb, 'statcast_aggregates', '*', (q) => q.eq('sport', 'mlb'));
+  const batters = new Map(); const pitchersById = new Map();
+  for (const r of statcast) {
+    const prof = sk.fromStatcastRow(r);
+    if (r.role === 'pitcher' && r.source_id != null) pitchersById.set(Number(r.source_id), prof);
+    if (r.role === 'batter' && r.player_key) batters.set(r.player_key, prof);
+  }
+  const sprayRows = await page(sb, 'batter_spray', '*', (q) => q.eq('sport', 'mlb'));
+  const sprayByKey = new Map();
+  for (const r of sprayRows) {
+    if (!r.player_key) continue;
+    const prev = sprayByKey.get(r.player_key);
+    if (!prev || String(r.as_of_date) > String(prev.as_of_date)) sprayByKey.set(r.player_key, r);
+  }
+
+  const platRows = await page(sb, 'platoon_splits', '*', (q) => q.eq('sport', 'mlb'));
+  const platByKey = new Map();
+  for (const r of platRows) {
+    if (!r.player_key) continue;
+    const prev = platByKey.get(r.player_key);
+    if (!prev || String(r.as_of_date) > String(prev.as_of_date)) platByKey.set(r.player_key, r);
+  }
+
+  const parkRows = await page(sb, 'park_dimensions', '*', (q) => q.eq('sport', 'mlb'));
+  const parkByVenue = new Map();
+  for (const p of parkRows) if (!parkByVenue.has(p.venue_id)) parkByVenue.set(p.venue_id, p);
+  const parkLeague = pw.leagueGeometry([...parkByVenue.values()]);
+  const ctxRows = await page(sb, 'game_context', 'game_id, venue_id, wx_temp_f, wx_wind_speed_mph, wx_wind_direction_deg', (q) => q);
+  const ctxBy = new Map(ctxRows.map((c) => [c.game_id, c]));
+
+  const defRows = await page(sb, 'team_defense', '*', (q) => q.eq('sport', 'mlb'));
+  const defByTeam = new Map();
+  for (const d of defRows) defByTeam.set(d.team, d);
+
+  const snaps = await page(sb, 'model_snapshots', 'player_key, game_date, archetype, stat',
+    (q) => q.eq('sport', 'mlb').eq('stat', 'total_bases').not('archetype', 'is', null));
+  const archOf = new Map();
+  for (const s of snaps) archOf.set(`${s.player_key}|${s.game_date}`, s.archetype);
+
+  const led = await page(sb, 'ledger_entries',
+    'id, game_id, player_key, player_name, line, side, outcome, game_date, p_win, quarantine_reason, env_park_base',
+    (q) => q.eq('sport', 'mlb').is('user_id', null).eq('stat', 'total_bases')
+      .in('outcome', ['hit', 'miss']).not('p_win', 'is', null));
+  const clean = led.filter((r) => !(r.quarantine_reason || '').startsWith('nontakeable_book'));
+
+  // Opponent faced, from each hitter's own game log.
+  const names = new Map();
+  for (const r of clean) if (!names.has(r.player_key)) names.set(r.player_key, r.player_name);
+  const oppBy = new Map(); const startersBy = new Map();
+  const dates = [...new Set(clean.map((r) => r.game_date))].sort();
+  for (const d of dates) {
+    try {
+      const games = await mlb.getScheduleWithPitchers(d);
+      for (const g of games) {
+        if (!g.home || !g.away) continue;
+        if (g.home.probablePitcher) startersBy.set(`${d}|OPP:${g.home.team}`, g.home.probablePitcher.id);
+        if (g.away.probablePitcher) startersBy.set(`${d}|OPP:${g.away.team}`, g.away.probablePitcher.id);
+      }
+    } catch { /* absent slate */ }
+  }
+  for (const [key, name] of names) {
+    try {
+      const found = await mlb.searchPlayer(name);
+      if (!found || !found.id) continue;
+      const log = await mlb.getPlayerGameLog(found.id);
+      for (const g of log || []) if (g && g.date && g.opponent) oppBy.set(`${key}|${String(g.date).slice(0, 10)}`, g.opponent);
+    } catch { /* no log */ }
+  }
+
+  // Per-player base rate — the honest null: "he's due", no reading of tonight.
+  const byPlayer = new Map();
+  for (const r of clean) {
+    const cur = byPlayer.get(r.player_key) || { n: 0, w: 0 };
+    cur.n += 1; cur.w += r.outcome === 'hit' ? 1 : 0;
+    byPlayer.set(r.player_key, cur);
+  }
+
+  const loss = { no_batter_profile: 0, thin_base_rate: 0, no_opponent: 0, no_pitcher: 0, kept: 0 };
+  const rows = [];
+  for (const r of clean) {
+    const bat = batters.get(r.player_key);
+    const bp = byPlayer.get(r.player_key);
+    if (!bat) loss.no_batter_profile += 1;
+    if (!bp || bp.n < 3) { loss.thin_base_rate += 1; continue; }
+    // THE NULL IS THE CHAMPION. Total-bases lines vary, so a per-line personal
+    // base rate cannot be estimated from ~2 rows per player-line without
+    // inventing one. p_win already prices the line, and beating it is a harder
+    // bar than beating "he's due".
+    const baseline = knownNumber(r.p_win);
+    if (baseline === null) { loss.thin_base_rate += 1; continue; }
+    const faced = oppBy.get(`${r.player_key}|${r.game_date}`) || null;
+    const nick = faced ? String(faced).split(' ').pop() : null;
+    const def = faced ? (defByTeam.get(faced) || defByTeam.get(nick)) : null;
+    if (!faced) loss.no_opponent += 1;
+    const starterId = faced ? startersBy.get(`${r.game_date}|OPP:${faced}`) : null;
+    const pit = starterId != null ? pitchersById.get(Number(starterId)) : null;
+    if (faced && !pit) loss.no_pitcher += 1;
+    loss.kept += 1;
+    rows.push({
+      id: r.id,
+      // Errors are correlated WITHIN a game — shared starter, park, weather and
+      // the game's own randomness — so the interval must be clustered on it.
+      // Three of these factors (pitcher profile, team defence, park) are also
+      // CONSTANT across every hitter facing that starter, which makes row
+      // resampling straightforwardly wrong for them.
+      cluster: r.game_id,
+      opp: faced,
+      starter_id: starterId != null ? Number(starterId) : null,
+      player_key: r.player_key,
+      archetype: archOf.get(`${r.player_key}|${r.game_date}`) || null,
+      won: r.outcome === 'hit' ? 1 : 0,
+      baseline,
+      team_defense: def ? knownNumber(def.oaa_sum) : null,
+      pitcher_hard_hit_allowed: pit ? knownRate(pit.hard_hit_pct) : null,
+      line: knownNumber(r.line),
+      barrel_pct: bat ? knownRate(bat.barrel_pct) : null,
+      avg_exit_velo: bat ? knownNumber(bat.avg_exit_velo) : null,
+      park_weather_ratio: (() => {
+        const c = ctxBy.get(r.game_id);
+        if (!c || c.venue_id == null) return null;
+        const dims = parkByVenue.get(c.venue_id);
+        if (!dims) return null;
+        const read = pw.parkWeatherRead({ dims, wx: c, league: parkLeague });
+        if (!read) return null;
+        const shaped = pw.applyToShares(BASE_SHARES, read);
+        return tbFrom(shaped) / tbFrom(BASE_SHARES);
+      })(),
+      platoon_severity_mult: (() => {
+        const sp = platByKey.get(r.player_key);
+        if (!sp || !bat || !bat.bats || !pit || !pit.throws) return null;
+        const out = pss.platoonRead({
+          splits: {
+            vl: { pa: sp.vl_pa, atBats: sp.vl_ab, hits: sp.vl_hits },
+            vr: { pa: sp.vr_pa, atBats: sp.vr_ab, hits: sp.vr_hits },
+          },
+          bats: bat.bats, throws: pit.throws,
+        });
+        return out && out.readable ? out.multiplier : null;
+      })(),
+      spray_multiplier: (() => {
+        const sp = sprayByKey.get(r.player_key);
+        const posOaa = def && def.position_oaa ? def.position_oaa : null;
+        if (!sp || !posOaa || !bat || !bat.bats) return null;
+        const out = sd.sprayDefenseMultiplier({ spray: sp, bats: bat.bats, positionOaa: posOaa });
+        return out ? out.multiplier : null;
+      })(),
+      platoon_edge: (bat && pit && bat.bats && pit.throws)
+        ? (String(bat.bats)[0] !== String(pit.throws)[0] ? 1 : -1) : null,
+    });
+  }
+
+  // Cumulative Bonferroni across the programme lifetime.
+  const store = tl.supabaseStore(sb);
+  const mc = await tl.recordAndCount(store, FACTORS.flatMap((f) =>
+    ARCHS.map((a) => ({ sport: 'mlb', stat: 'total_bases', archetype: a === 'ALL' ? null : a, interaction: `factor:${f.key}`, target: 'outcome' }))));
+
+  // STEP 1 — FULL-HISTORY SAMPLE AUDIT PER SLOT, before any gating.
+  const audit = [];
+  for (const f of FACTORS) {
+    for (const arch of ARCHS) {
+      const slot = arch === 'ALL' ? rows : rows.filter((r) => String(r.archetype || '').toUpperCase() === arch);
+      const usable = slot.filter((r) => f.needs.every((k) => knownNumber(r[k]) !== null));
+      audit.push({
+        factor: f.key,
+        archetype: arch,
+        rows: usable.length,
+        games: new Set(usable.map((r) => r.cluster).filter(Boolean)).size,
+        players: new Set(usable.map((r) => r.player_key)).size,
+      });
+    }
+  }
+
+  const results = [];
+  for (const arch of ARCHS) {
+    const slot = arch === 'ALL' ? rows : rows.filter((r) => String(r.archetype || '').toUpperCase() === arch);
+    for (const f of FACTORS) {
+      const usable = slot.filter((r) => f.needs.every((k) => knownNumber(r[k]) !== null));
+      // A park effect is replicated across PARKS, not across games: 619 rows in
+      // 45 games still only ever saw ~23 ballparks, and unmodelled park
+      // heterogeneity is confounded with the very thing being estimated. So the
+      // cluster is the COARSER of the game and the entity the treatment rides on.
+      const ents = f.entity ? new Set(usable.map((r) => String(f.entity(r)))) : null;
+      const games = new Set(usable.map((r) => String(r.cluster)));
+      const useEntity = ents && ents.size < games.size;
+      const paired = usable.map((r) => {
+        const mult = f.apply(r);
+        const cond = mult === null ? null : Math.min(0.99, Math.max(0.01, r.baseline * mult));
+        return {
+          baseline: r.baseline,
+          conditioned: cond,
+          won: r.won,
+          cluster: useEntity ? `e:${f.entity(r)}` : r.cluster,
+        };
+      });
+      const v = fg.adjudicate(paired, {
+        factor: f.key, archetype: arch, stat: 'total_bases',
+        cumulativeTests: mc.cumulative_tests,      // native cumulative correction
+      });
+      results.push({
+        archetype: arch, factor: f.key, n: v.movement.n,
+        clusters: v.improvement ? v.improvement.effective_n : null,
+        cluster_unit: useEntity ? 'treatment_entity' : 'game',
+        distinct_games: games.size,
+        distinct_entities: ents ? ents.size : null,
+        mean_abs_shift: v.movement.mean_abs_shift,
+        brier_delta: v.improvement ? v.improvement.brier_delta : null,
+        ci: v.improvement ? v.improvement.ci : null,
+        ci_level: v.improvement ? v.improvement.ci_level : null,
+        verdict: v.verdict,
+        reason: v.reason,
+        ...(f.caveat ? { input_caveat: f.caveat } : {}),
+      });
+    }
+  }
+
+  console.log(JSON.stringify({
+    baseline: "each row scored against the player's OWN leave-one-out base rate — the honest 'he's due' null",
+    total_rows: rows.length,
+    slot_audit: audit,
+    clean_settled_rows_available: clean.length,
+    row_loss: loss,
+    cumulative_bonferroni: mc,
+    gate: 'a factor must MOVE the prediction AND improve out-of-sample Brier; movement alone is THEATER',
+    results,
+    proven: results.filter((r) => r.verdict === 'PROVES'),
+    theater: results.filter((r) => r.verdict === 'THEATER'),
+  }, null, 2));
+  process.exit(0);
+}
+
+main().catch((e) => { console.error(e); process.exit(1); });

scripts/rbi-resolution-decomposition.js

@@ -0,0 +1,184 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env node
+'use strict';
+
+/**
+ * PHASES 0-1 — is rbi's 14.51% real, and where does it come from?
+ *
+ * PHASE 0 is a Beck gate. The 14.51% came from the same decomposition harness
+ * whose paging helper produced a false null three times tonight (composite PKs,
+ * order-by-id, error swallowed). So the row count is asserted against an
+ * independent exact count, every page is error-checked, and 20 raw rows are
+ * printed so the decile arithmetic can be audited by hand.
+ *
+ * PHASE 1 asks what the resolution IS. Resolution rewards a forecast for
+ * separating outcomes — but a forecast can separate outcomes by knowing WHO is
+ * batting rather than anything about tonight. Three nested forecasts:
+ *
+ *   PLAYER BASE RATE   leave-one-out frequency for that hitter, nothing else.
+ *                      Its resolution is pure across-player spread.
+ *   LINEUP SLOT        mean rate for that batting-order position. Real
+ *                      predictive signal, but ROLE, not skill.
+ *   THE MODEL          served p_win.
+ *
+ * The part that behaves like our doctrine's "skill" is what the model resolves
+ * WITHIN a stratum of similar players — measured directly by stratifying on the
+ * player's own base rate and pooling the within-stratum resolutions.
+ */
+
+require('dotenv').config();
+const fs = require('fs');
+const path = require('path');
+const { createClient } = require('@supabase/supabase-js');
+const guards = require('../src/services/model/calibrationGuards');
+const { knownNumber } = require('../src/utils/known');
+const { nameKey } = require('../src/utils/playerName');
+
+const BOX = path.join(process.cwd(), '.seq-cache', 'batting-lines.json');
+const SEQ = path.join(process.cwd(), '.seq-cache', 'sequences.json');
+const STATS = ['rbi', 'hits', 'total_bases', 'runs'];
+const FIELD = { hits: (b) => b.hits, total_bases: (b) => b.totalBases, rbi: (b) => b.rbi, runs: (b) => b.runs };
+const mean = (xs) => (xs.length ? xs.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / xs.length : null);
+
+/** Error-checked pager with an explicit order column. */
+async function page(sb, t, sel, orderBy, apply) {
+  const out = [];
+  for (let i = 0; ; i += 1000) {
+    const q = apply ? apply(sb.from(t).select(sel)) : sb.from(t).select(sel);
+    const { data, error } = await q.order(orderBy, { ascending: true }).range(i, i + 999);
+    if (error) throw new Error(`${t}: ${error.message}`);
+    if (!data || !data.length) break;
+    out.push(...data);
+    if (data.length < 1000) break;
+  }
+  return out;
+}
+const isPreGame = (c, g) => {
+  const et = new Date(new Date(c).getTime() - 4 * 3600 * 1000);
+  const d = et.toISOString().slice(0, 10);
+  return d < g || (d === g && et.getUTCHours() < 19);
+};
+
+/** Resolution alone: weighted spread of bin realized rates about the base rate. */
+function resolutionOf(rows, bins = 10) {
+  const base = mean(rows.map((r) => r.won));
+  let res = 0;
+  const table = [];
+  for (let k = 0; k < bins; k += 1) {
+    const lo = k / bins; const hi = (k + 1) / bins;
+    const sl = rows.filter((r) => r.p >= lo && (hi >= 1 ? r.p <= 1 : r.p < hi));
+    if (!sl.length) continue;
+    const w = sl.length / rows.length;
+    const ok = mean(sl.map((r) => r.won));
+    res += w * (ok - base) ** 2;
+    table.push({ bin: `${lo.toFixed(1)}-${hi.toFixed(1)}`, n: sl.length, forecast: r4(mean(sl.map((r) => r.p))), realized: r4(ok) });
+  }
+  return { base_rate: r4(base), resolution: r5(res), uncertainty: r5(base * (1 - base)), share: r4(res / (base * (1 - base))), table };
+}
+
+(async () => {
+  const sb = createClient(process.env.SUPABASE_URL, process.env.SUPABASE_SERVICE_ROLE_KEY || process.env.SUPABASE_SERVICE_KEY, { auth: { persistSession: false } });
+  const lines = JSON.parse(fs.readFileSync(BOX, 'utf8')).lines;
+
+  // Batting-order slot, reconstructed point-in-time from play-by-play.
+  const { games } = JSON.parse(fs.readFileSync(SEQ, 'utf8'));
+  const slotOf = new Map();
+  for (const g of games) {
+    for (const half of ['top', 'bottom']) {
+      const seen = []; const set = new Set();
+      for (const p of g.pas.filter((x) => x.half === half)) {
+        if (!set.has(p.batter)) { set.add(p.batter); seen.push(p); }
+        if (seen.length >= 9) break;
+      }
+      seen.forEach((p, i) => slotOf.set(`${g.date}|${nameKey(p.batter_name || '')}`, i + 1));
+    }
+  }
+
+  const out = { PHASE_0: {}, PHASE_1: {} };
+
+  for (const stat of STATS) {
+    // PHASE 0 — exact count first, then the paged pull must match it.
+    const { count: exact, error: cErr } = await sb.from('model_snapshots')
+      .select('*', { count: 'exact', head: true }).eq('sport', 'mlb').eq('stat', stat);
+    if (cErr) throw new Error(`count ${stat}: ${cErr.message}`);
+    const snaps = await page(sb, 'model_snapshots',
+      'id, game_date, captured_at, stat, player_key, player_name, line, side, p_win, refused', 'id',
+      (q) => q.eq('sport', 'mlb').eq('stat', stat));
+    if (snaps.length !== exact) throw new Error(`PHASE 0 FAIL ${stat}: paged ${snaps.length} != exact ${exact}`);
+
+    const picked = new Map();
+    for (const r of snaps) {
+      if (!isPreGame(r.captured_at, r.game_date) || r.refused || knownNumber(r.p_win) === null) continue;
+      const k = [r.game_date, r.player_key, r.line].join('|');
+      const prev = picked.get(k);
+      if (!prev || knownNumber(r.p_win) > knownNumber(prev.p_win)) picked.set(k, r);
+    }
+    guards.assertPickedSideDedup([...picked.values()].map((r) => ({ propKey: [r.game_date, r.player_key, r.line].join('|'), side: r.side, p: knownNumber(r.p_win) })));
+
+    const rows = [];
+    for (const r of picked.values()) {
+      const b = lines[`${r.game_date}|${r.player_key}`]; const L = knownNumber(r.line);
+      if (!b || L === null || !r.side) continue;
+      const v = knownNumber(FIELD[stat](b)); if (v === null) continue;
+      const over = v > L;
+      rows.push({
+        date: r.game_date, key: r.player_key, name: r.player_name, line: L, side: r.side,
+        actual: v, p: knownNumber(r.p_win),
+        won: (String(r.side).toLowerCase() === 'under' ? !over : over) ? 1 : 0,
+        slot: slotOf.get(`${r.game_date}|${r.player_key}`) ?? null,
+      });
+    }
+
+    const model = resolutionOf(rows);
+    out.PHASE_0[stat] = { exact_rows: exact, paged_rows: snaps.length, scorable: rows.length, model_resolution: model.resolution, model_share: model.share, deciles: model.table };
+    if (stat === 'rbi') {
+      out.PHASE_0.rbi_raw_sample = rows.slice(0, 20).map((r) => ({ name: r.name, date: r.date, line: r.line, side: r.side, p_win: r.p, actual_rbi: r.actual, won: r.won }));
+    }
+
+    // ── (a) PLAYER BASE RATE, leave-one-out ──
+    const byPlayer = new Map();
+    for (const r of rows) { const c = byPlayer.get(r.key) || { n: 0, w: 0 }; c.n += 1; c.w += r.won; byPlayer.set(r.key, c); }
+    const baseRows = rows.filter((r) => byPlayer.get(r.key).n >= 3)
+      .map((r) => { const c = byPlayer.get(r.key); return { ...r, p: (c.w - r.won) / (c.n - 1) }; });
+    const baseOnly = resolutionOf(baseRows);
+
+    // ── (b) LINEUP SLOT, leave-one-out ──
+    const bySlot = new Map();
+    for (const r of rows) { if (r.slot == null) continue; const c = bySlot.get(r.slot) || { n: 0, w: 0 }; c.n += 1; c.w += r.won; bySlot.set(r.slot, c); }
+    const slotRows = rows.filter((r) => r.slot != null && bySlot.get(r.slot).n >= 10)
+      .map((r) => { const c = bySlot.get(r.slot); return { ...r, p: (c.w - r.won) / (c.n - 1) }; });
+    const slotOnly = slotRows.length ? resolutionOf(slotRows) : null;
+
+    // ── (c) WITHIN-STRATUM: does the model still separate similar players? ──
+    // Stratify on the player's own base rate, then pool the model's resolution
+    // computed INSIDE each stratum. Across-player spread is held constant, so
+    // what survives is discrimination between comparable hitters.
+    const strata = [[0, 0.45], [0.45, 0.6], [0.6, 0.75], [0.75, 1.01]];
+    let within = 0; let wTot = 0; const strataDetail = [];
+    for (const [lo, hi] of strata) {
+      const sl = rows.filter((r) => { const c = byPlayer.get(r.key); if (!c || c.n < 3) return false; const b = c.w / c.n; return b >= lo && b < hi; });
+      if (sl.length < 40) continue;
+      const rr = resolutionOf(sl);
+      within += sl.length * rr.resolution; wTot += sl.length;
+      strataDetail.push({ stratum: `${lo}-${hi}`, n: sl.length, base: rr.base_rate, resolution: rr.resolution });
+    }
+    const withinRes = wTot ? within / wTot : null;
+
+    out.PHASE_1[stat] = {
+      n: rows.length,
+      model_resolution: model.resolution,
+      model_share_of_variance: model.share,
+      a_player_base_rate_only: { n: baseRows.length, resolution: baseOnly.resolution, share: baseOnly.share },
+      b_lineup_slot_only: slotOnly ? { n: slotRows.length, resolution: slotOnly.resolution, share: slotOnly.share } : null,
+      c_within_stratum_resolution: r5(withinRes),
+      strata: strataDetail,
+      base_rate_explains_pct: baseOnly.resolution ? r4(Math.min(1, baseOnly.resolution / model.resolution)) : null,
+      within_stratum_share_of_model: withinRes != null && model.resolution ? r4(withinRes / model.resolution) : null,
+    };
+  }
+
+  console.log(JSON.stringify(out, null, 2));
+  process.exit(0);
+})().catch((e) => { console.error('FAILED:', e.message); process.exit(1); });
+
+const r5 = (v) => (v == null || !Number.isFinite(v) ? null : Math.round(v * 100000) / 100000);
+const r4 = (v) => (v == null || !Number.isFinite(v) ? null : Math.round(v * 10000) / 10000);

scripts/rebuild-tb-bands.js

@@ -0,0 +1,137 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env node
+'use strict';
+
+/**
+ * PHASE 5 — rebuild grade bands on p_win_calibrated, for DEPLOYED stats only.
+ *
+ * total_bases is the only stat that cleared LODO, so it is the only one whose
+ * bands are rebuilt on calibrated values. The rest keep base-rate bands built on
+ * raw p_win, and the reason is named rather than left to inference.
+ *
+ * The two-bar rule still applies and still bites: TB is now CALIBRATED but no
+ * factor is PROVEN for it (barrel, exit velo and hard-contact-allowed were all
+ * THEATER), so the bands remain a base-rate read — now an honestly-numbered one.
+ */
+
+require('dotenv').config();
+const fs = require('fs');
+const path = require('path');
+const { createClient } = require('@supabase/supabase-js');
+const cal = require('../src/services/model/calibration');
+const lp = require('../src/services/model/lowParamCalibrator');
+const gb = require('../src/services/model/gradeBands');
+const guards = require('../src/services/model/calibrationGuards');
+const tl = require('../src/services/model/testLedger');
+const { knownNumber } = require('../src/utils/known');
+
+const BOX = path.join(process.cwd(), '.seq-cache', 'batting-lines.json');
+const STAT = process.env.BAND_STAT || 'total_bases';
+const PAGE = 1000;
+
+async function page(sb, t, s, f) {
+  const o = [];
+  for (let i = 0; ; i += PAGE) {
+    const { data, error } = await f(sb.from(t).select(s)).order('id', { ascending: true }).range(i, i + PAGE - 1);
+    if (error) throw error;
+    if (!data.length) break;
+    o.push(...data);
+    if (data.length < PAGE) break;
+  }
+  return o;
+}
+const isPreGame = (c, g) => {
+  const et = new Date(new Date(c).getTime() - 4 * 3600 * 1000);
+  const d = et.toISOString().slice(0, 10);
+  return d < g || (d === g && et.getUTCHours() < 19);
+};
+const FIELD = { hits: (b) => b.hits, total_bases: (b) => b.totalBases, rbi: (b) => b.rbi, runs: (b) => b.runs };
+
+(async () => {
+  const sb = createClient(process.env.SUPABASE_URL, process.env.SUPABASE_SERVICE_ROLE_KEY || process.env.SUPABASE_SERVICE_KEY, { auth: { persistSession: false } });
+  const lines = JSON.parse(fs.readFileSync(BOX, 'utf8')).lines;
+
+  const snaps = await page(sb, 'model_snapshots',
+    'id, game_date, captured_at, stat, player_key, line, side, p_win, refused, archetype',
+    (q) => q.eq('sport', 'mlb').eq('stat', STAT));
+
+  const picked = new Map();
+  for (const r of snaps) {
+    if (!isPreGame(r.captured_at, r.game_date) || r.refused || knownNumber(r.p_win) === null) continue;
+    const k = [r.game_date, r.stat, r.player_key, r.line].join('|');
+    const prev = picked.get(k);
+    if (!prev || knownNumber(r.p_win) > knownNumber(prev.p_win)) picked.set(k, r);
+  }
+  guards.assertPickedSideDedup([...picked.values()].map((r) => ({
+    propKey: [r.game_date, r.stat, r.player_key, r.line].join('|'), side: r.side, p: knownNumber(r.p_win),
+  })));
+
+  const rows = [];
+  for (const r of picked.values()) {
+    const b = lines[`${r.game_date}|${r.player_key}`];
+    const L = knownNumber(r.line);
+    if (!b || L === null || !r.side) continue;
+    const v = knownNumber(FIELD[STAT](b));
+    if (v === null) continue;
+    const over = v > L;
+    rows.push({
+      date: r.game_date, p: knownNumber(r.p_win),
+      won: (String(r.side).toLowerCase() === 'under' ? !over : over) ? 1 : 0,
+      archetype: String(r.archetype || 'UNLABELLED').toUpperCase(),
+    });
+  }
+  rows.sort((a, b) => String(a.date).localeCompare(String(b.date)));
+
+  // Point-in-time map, then apply forward.
+  const dates = [...new Set(rows.map((r) => r.date))].sort();
+  const perDate = new Map();
+  for (const r of rows) perDate.set(r.date, (perDate.get(r.date) || 0) + 1);
+  let acc = 0; let cut = dates[dates.length - 1];
+  for (const d of dates) { acc += perDate.get(d); if (acc >= rows.length * 0.45) { cut = d; break; } }
+  // Bands are built on the SERVED values. hits and total_bases serve the
+  // low-parameter correction; rbi and runs serve raw, so their bands are raw.
+  const DEPLOYED = ['hits', 'total_bases'];
+  const fitRows = rows.filter((r) => r.date < cut);
+  const evalRows = rows.filter((r) => r.date >= cut);
+  let applied;
+  let basis;
+  if (DEPLOYED.includes(STAT)) {
+    const model = lp.fitPlatt(fitRows);
+    applied = (!model || model.refused)
+      ? { ok: false, reason: 'low-parameter fit refused', rows: [] }
+      : { ok: true, rows: evalRows.map((r) => ({ ...r, pc: lp.applyPlatt(model, r.p) })).filter((r) => r.pc != null) };
+    basis = 'p_win_lowparam (SERVED, provisional)';
+  } else {
+    applied = { ok: true, rows: evalRows.map((r) => ({ ...r, pc: r.p })) };
+    basis = 'raw p_win (this stat serves raw)';
+  }
+  if (!applied.ok) { console.log(JSON.stringify({ stat: STAT, refused: applied.reason })); process.exit(0); }
+
+  const mc = await tl.recordAndCount(tl.supabaseStore(sb), []).catch(() => ({ cumulative_tests: 1 }));
+
+  const byArch = new Map();
+  for (const r of applied.rows) {
+    if (!byArch.has(r.archetype)) byArch.set(r.archetype, []);
+    byArch.get(r.archetype).push({ p: r.pc, won: r.won });
+  }
+
+  const out = [];
+  for (const [arch, rs] of [...byArch.entries()].sort((a, b) => b[1].length - a[1].length)) {
+    out.push(gb.buildBands(rs, {
+      archetype: arch,
+      cumulativeTests: mc.cumulative_tests,
+      // TB is CALIBRATED (provisional) but no factor is PROVEN for it.
+      proven: false,
+      calibrated: DEPLOYED.includes(STAT),
+    }));
+  }
+
+  console.log(JSON.stringify({
+    stat: STAT,
+    basis,
+    eval_rows: applied.rows.length,
+    cumulative_tests: mc.cumulative_tests,
+    two_bar_note: 'calibrated YES, proven NO -> bands stay a base-rate read, now honestly numbered',
+    bands: out,
+  }, null, 2));
+  process.exit(0);
+})().catch((e) => { console.error(e); process.exit(1); });

scripts/reconstruct-game-environment.js

@@ -0,0 +1,170 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env node
+'use strict';
+
+/**
+ * reconstruct-game-environment — GIVE THE PAST GAMES THEIR REAL CONDITIONS.
+ *
+ * `game_context` has never held a single weather reading. The reason is not the
+ * fetcher, which is correct and points at Open-Meteo's ARCHIVE endpoint; it is
+ * that nothing ever joined. The ledger keys a game as
+ * `mlb:2026-08-03:WashingtonNationals@PhiladelphiaPhillies` and game_context
+ * keys it as `mlb:823437`, so every lookup missed and the columns stayed NULL —
+ * which reads exactly like "the weather was unavailable" rather than "the two
+ * tables have never been introduced." The same class of failure as the doubled
+ * /leaderboard path: graceful degradation wearing the mask of honest absence.
+ *
+ * This walks the dates in the settled ledger, resolves each slug to the real
+ * statsapi game and venue, and writes a game_context row keyed by the LEDGER's
+ * slug so the join exists. Then it pulls the actual archived weather for that
+ * date and location.
+ *
+ * ARCHIVE, NOT FORECAST — asking the forecast endpoint about a past date returns
+ * a re-forecast, which is a model's opinion about the past, not the past. Absent
+ * stays NULL; nothing here is imputed.
+ *
+ *   SUPABASE_URL=... node scripts/reconstruct-game-environment.js
+ */
+
+require('dotenv').config();
+const axios = require('axios');
+const { createClient } = require('@supabase/supabase-js');
+
+const SB_URL = process.env.SUPABASE_URL;
+const SB_KEY = process.env.SUPABASE_SERVICE_ROLE_KEY || process.env.SUPABASE_SERVICE_KEY;
+const PAGE = 1000;
+const SCHEDULE = (d) => `https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/schedule?sportId=1&date=${d}&hydrate=venue(location)`;
+const ARCHIVE = (lat, lon, date) =>
+  `https://archive-api.open-meteo.com/v1/archive?latitude=${lat}&longitude=${lon}`
+  + `&start_date=${date}&end_date=${date}`
+  + '&hourly=temperature_2m,wind_speed_10m,wind_direction_10m,precipitation'
+  + '&temperature_unit=fahrenheit&wind_speed_unit=mph';
+
+const squash = (s) => String(s || '').toLowerCase().replace(/[^a-z]/g, '');
+
+async function page(sb, table, select, apply) {
+  const out = [];
+  for (let from = 0; ; from += PAGE) {
+    const { data, error } = await apply(sb.from(table).select(select)).range(from, from + PAGE - 1);
+    if (error) throw error;
+    if (!data || data.length === 0) break;
+    out.push(...data);
+    if (data.length < PAGE) break;
+  }
+  return out;
+}
+
+const get = async (url) => (await axios.get(url, { timeout: 60_000 })).data;
+
+async function main() {
+  const sb = createClient(SB_URL, SB_KEY, { auth: { persistSession: false } });
+
+  const led = await page(sb, 'ledger_entries', 'game_id, game_date, stat, outcome, quarantine_reason',
+    (q) => q.eq('sport', 'mlb').is('user_id', null).in('stat', ['hits', 'total_bases'])
+      .in('outcome', ['hit', 'miss']));
+  const clean = led.filter((r) => !(r.quarantine_reason || '').startsWith('nontakeable_book'));
+
+  // Distinct games, as the LEDGER names them.
+  const games = new Map();
+  for (const r of clean) if (r.game_id && !games.has(r.game_id)) games.set(r.game_id, r.game_date);
+  const dates = [...new Set([...games.values()])].sort();
+  console.error(`[env] ${games.size} distinct settled games across ${dates.length} dates`);
+
+  // date -> statsapi games, indexed by the same squashed away@home the slug uses.
+  const resolved = new Map();
+  const venues = new Map();
+  for (const d of dates) {
+    let sched = null;
+    try { sched = await get(SCHEDULE(d)); } catch { sched = null; }
+    for (const day of (sched && sched.dates) || []) {
+      for (const g of day.games || []) {
+        const away = squash(g.teams?.away?.team?.name);
+        const home = squash(g.teams?.home?.team?.name);
+        resolved.set(`${d}|${away}@${home}`, g);
+        const v = g.venue || {};
+        if (v.id && !venues.has(v.id)) {
+          const loc = v.location || {};
+          venues.set(v.id, {
+            venue_id: v.id,
+            venue_name: v.name || null,
+            lat: loc.defaultCoordinates?.latitude ?? null,
+            lon: loc.defaultCoordinates?.longitude ?? null,
+          });
+        }
+      }
+    }
+  }
+
+  // Join each ledger slug to its real game + venue.
+  const rows = []; let unmatched = 0;
+  for (const [gid, date] of games) {
+    const m = /^mlb:(\d{4}-\d{2}-\d{2}):(.+?)@(.+)$/.exec(gid);
+    if (!m) { unmatched += 1; continue; }
+    const g = resolved.get(`${m[1]}|${squash(m[2])}@${squash(m[3])}`);
+    if (!g) { unmatched += 1; continue; }
+    rows.push({
+      game_id: gid,                       // the LEDGER's key — this is the whole fix
+      game_date: date,
+      venue_id: g.venue?.id ?? null,
+      source_game_pk: g.gamePk ?? null,
+    });
+  }
+  console.error(`[env] matched ${rows.length}, unmatched ${unmatched}, venues seen ${venues.size}`);
+
+  for (let i = 0; i < rows.length; i += 200) {
+    const { error } = await sb.from('game_context')
+      .upsert(rows.slice(i, i + 200), { onConflict: 'game_id' });
+    if (error) console.error('[env] context write failed:', error.message);
+  }
+
+  // ACTUAL archived weather, one call per (venue, date) that we need.
+  const need = new Map();
+  for (const r of rows) {
+    const v = venues.get(r.venue_id);
+    if (!v || v.lat == null || v.lon == null) continue;
+    need.set(`${r.venue_id}|${r.game_date}`, { v, date: r.game_date });
+  }
+  console.error(`[env] fetching ${need.size} venue-days of archived weather`);
+
+  const wx = new Map();
+  for (const [k, { v, date }] of need) {
+    try {
+      const p = await get(ARCHIVE(v.lat, v.lon, date));
+      const h = p && p.hourly;
+      if (h && Array.isArray(h.time) && h.time.length) {
+        const i = Math.min(h.time.length - 1, 19);   // ~7pm local, typical first pitch
+        wx.set(k, {
+          wx_temp_f: h.temperature_2m?.[i] ?? null,
+          wx_wind_speed_mph: h.wind_speed_10m?.[i] ?? null,
+          wx_wind_direction_deg: h.wind_direction_10m?.[i] ?? null,
+          wx_precip_mm: h.precipitation?.[i] ?? null,
+          wx_source: 'open_meteo_archive',
+        });
+      }
+    } catch { /* absent stays absent */ }
+  }
+
+  let withWx = 0;
+  for (let i = 0; i < rows.length; i += 200) {
+    const batch = rows.slice(i, i + 200).map((r) => {
+      const w = wx.get(`${r.venue_id}|${r.game_date}`);
+      if (w) withWx += 1;
+      return w ? { ...r, ...w } : r;
+    });
+    const { error } = await sb.from('game_context').upsert(batch, { onConflict: 'game_id' });
+    if (error) console.error('[env] weather write failed:', error.message);
+  }
+
+  console.log(JSON.stringify({
+    settled_games: games.size,
+    matched_to_statsapi: rows.length,
+    unmatched,
+    distinct_venues: venues.size,
+    venue_days_requested: need.size,
+    venue_days_returned: wx.size,
+    game_rows_with_actual_weather: withWx,
+    source: 'open_meteo_archive (actual, not re-forecast)',
+  }, null, 2));
+  process.exit(0);
+}
+
+main().catch((e) => { console.error(e); process.exit(1); });

scripts/resolution-diagnosis.js

@@ -0,0 +1,132 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env node
+'use strict';
+
+/**
+ * PHASE 2 — put a number on the resolution ceiling.
+ *
+ * Murphy's decomposition: Brier = reliability - resolution + uncertainty.
+ *
+ *   reliability  how far each bin's realized rate sits from its forecast (lower
+ *                is better; this is what calibration fixes)
+ *   resolution   how far the bins' realized rates spread from the base rate
+ *                (HIGHER is better; this is discrimination, and NO amount of
+ *                calibration can create it)
+ *   uncertainty  the base rate's own variance -- a property of the event
+ *
+ * Calibration moves reliability and leaves resolution untouched by construction:
+ * a monotone map relabels bins without re-sorting the rows inside them. So if
+ * resolution is near zero, honest numbers are all calibration can ever deliver.
+ */
+
+require('dotenv').config();
+const fs = require('fs');
+const path = require('path');
+const { createClient } = require('@supabase/supabase-js');
+const lp = require('../src/services/model/lowParamCalibrator');
+const guards = require('../src/services/model/calibrationGuards');
+const { knownNumber } = require('../src/utils/known');
+
+const BOX = path.join(process.cwd(), '.seq-cache', 'batting-lines.json');
+const STATS = ['hits', 'total_bases', 'rbi', 'runs'];
+const DEPLOYED = ['hits', 'total_bases'];
+const PAGE = 1000;
+const FIELD = { hits: (b) => b.hits, total_bases: (b) => b.totalBases, rbi: (b) => b.rbi, runs: (b) => b.runs };
+const mean = (xs) => (xs.length ? xs.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / xs.length : null);
+
+async function page(sb, t, s, f) {
+  const o = [];
+  for (let i = 0; ; i += PAGE) {
+    const { data, error } = await f(sb.from(t).select(s)).order('id', { ascending: true }).range(i, i + PAGE - 1);
+    if (error) throw error; if (!data.length) break; o.push(...data); if (data.length < PAGE) break;
+  }
+  return o;
+}
+const isPreGame = (c, g) => {
+  const et = new Date(new Date(c).getTime() - 4 * 3600 * 1000);
+  const d = et.toISOString().slice(0, 10);
+  return d < g || (d === g && et.getUTCHours() < 19);
+};
+
+/** Murphy decomposition over K equal-width bins. */
+function decompose(rows, bins = 10) {
+  const base = mean(rows.map((r) => r.won));
+  const uncertainty = base * (1 - base);
+  let reliability = 0; let resolution = 0;
+  const table = [];
+  for (let k = 0; k < bins; k += 1) {
+    const lo = k / bins; const hi = (k + 1) / bins;
+    const slice = rows.filter((r) => r.p >= lo && (hi >= 1 ? r.p <= 1 : r.p < hi));
+    if (!slice.length) continue;
+    const w = slice.length / rows.length;
+    const fk = mean(slice.map((r) => r.p));
+    const ok = mean(slice.map((r) => r.won));
+    reliability += w * (fk - ok) ** 2;
+    resolution += w * (ok - base) ** 2;
+    table.push({ bin: [round2(lo), round2(hi)], n: slice.length, forecast: round4(fk), realized: round4(ok) });
+  }
+  return {
+    base_rate: round4(base),
+    reliability: round5(reliability),
+    resolution: round5(resolution),
+    uncertainty: round5(uncertainty),
+    brier_check: round5(reliability - resolution + uncertainty),
+    /** What share of the event's variance the model actually explains. */
+    resolution_share_of_uncertainty: round4(resolution / uncertainty),
+    bins: table,
+  };
+}
+
+(async () => {
+  const sb = createClient(process.env.SUPABASE_URL, process.env.SUPABASE_SERVICE_ROLE_KEY || process.env.SUPABASE_SERVICE_KEY, { auth: { persistSession: false } });
+  const lines = JSON.parse(fs.readFileSync(BOX, 'utf8')).lines;
+  const snaps = await page(sb, 'model_snapshots', 'id, game_date, captured_at, stat, player_key, line, side, p_win, refused',
+    (q) => q.eq('sport', 'mlb').in('stat', STATS));
+
+  const picked = new Map();
+  for (const r of snaps) {
+    if (!isPreGame(r.captured_at, r.game_date) || r.refused || knownNumber(r.p_win) === null) continue;
+    const k = [r.game_date, r.stat, r.player_key, r.line].join('|');
+    const prev = picked.get(k);
+    if (!prev || knownNumber(r.p_win) > knownNumber(prev.p_win)) picked.set(k, r);
+  }
+  guards.assertPickedSideDedup([...picked.values()].map((r) => ({
+    propKey: [r.game_date, r.stat, r.player_key, r.line].join('|'), side: r.side, p: knownNumber(r.p_win) })));
+
+  const out = {};
+  for (const stat of STATS) {
+    const rows = [];
+    for (const r of picked.values()) {
+      if (r.stat !== stat) continue;
+      const b = lines[`${r.game_date}|${r.player_key}`]; const L = knownNumber(r.line);
+      if (!b || L === null || !r.side) continue;
+      const v = knownNumber(FIELD[stat](b)); if (v === null) continue;
+      const over = v > L;
+      rows.push({ date: r.game_date, p: knownNumber(r.p_win), won: (String(r.side).toLowerCase() === 'under' ? !over : over) ? 1 : 0 });
+    }
+    if (rows.length < 100) continue;
+
+    const raw = decompose(rows);
+    let served = null;
+    if (DEPLOYED.includes(stat)) {
+      const m = lp.fitPlatt(rows);
+      if (m && !m.refused) {
+        const cal = rows.map((r) => ({ ...r, p: lp.applyPlatt(m, r.p) })).filter((r) => knownNumber(r.p) !== null);
+        served = decompose(cal);
+      }
+    }
+    out[stat] = {
+      n: rows.length,
+      deployed: DEPLOYED.includes(stat),
+      raw,
+      served,
+      resolution_change_from_calibration: served ? round5(served.resolution - raw.resolution) : null,
+      reliability_change_from_calibration: served ? round5(served.reliability - raw.reliability) : null,
+    };
+  }
+  console.log(JSON.stringify(out, null, 2));
+  process.exit(0);
+})().catch((e) => { console.error(e); process.exit(1); });
+
+const round5 = (v) => (v == null || !Number.isFinite(v) ? null : Math.round(v * 100000) / 100000);
+const round4 = (v) => (v == null || !Number.isFinite(v) ? null : Math.round(v * 10000) / 10000);
+const round2 = (v) => Math.round(v * 100) / 100;

scripts/settle-model-snapshots.js

@@ -0,0 +1,249 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env node
+'use strict';
+
+/**
+ * settle-model-snapshots — pay the standing debt.
+ *
+ * 71,192 snapshot rows have never carried an outcome. They are the retention
+ * table built for exactly this kind of replay, and until they are settled every
+ * measurement in this programme runs on the far smaller ledger slice.
+ *
+ * ── OUTCOME IS SIDE-ALIGNED, NOT RAW ─────────────────────────────────────
+ * The order specifies `outcome = 1[realized > line]`. That is the OVER
+ * perspective, and it would be backwards for every under-side prop — `p_win` is
+ * side-aligned (verified: TB mean p_win 0.5698 against a 0.5074 side-won rate),
+ * so a raw over-indicator would silently invert the target on the under rows and
+ * make calibration measure the wrong thing.
+ *
+ * So: `actual_value` stores the realized stat (raw, unopinionated) and `outcome`
+ * stores whether the GRADED SIDE won. Deviation from the literal order, stated
+ * because it changes the number.
+ *
+ * ── INTEGRITY (hard-fail) ────────────────────────────────────────────────
+ *   conservation   settled + unresolvable + orphaned == candidates
+ *   no dupes       one write per snapshot id
+ *   no orphans     a settled row must have matched a real box score
+ *   prediction-time logging  captured_at must PRECEDE the game date; a row
+ *                  logged after the fact is not a prediction and is refused
+ *
+ *   node scripts/settle-model-snapshots.js            # dry run, verifies only
+ *   SETTLE_WRITE=1 node scripts/settle-model-snapshots.js
+ */
+
+require('dotenv').config();
+const fs = require('fs');
+const path = require('path');
+const axios = require('axios');
+const { createClient } = require('@supabase/supabase-js');
+const { nameKey } = require('../src/utils/playerName');
+const { knownNumber } = require('../src/utils/known');
+
+const SB_URL = process.env.SUPABASE_URL;
+const SB_KEY = process.env.SUPABASE_SERVICE_ROLE_KEY || process.env.SUPABASE_SERVICE_KEY;
+const WRITE = process.env.SETTLE_WRITE === '1';
+const BOX_CACHE = path.join(process.cwd(), '.seq-cache', 'batting-lines.json');
+const STATS = ['hits', 'total_bases', 'rbi', 'runs'];
+const PAGE = 1000;
+
+/** Realized value per stat, from the box-score batting line. */
+const FIELD = Object.freeze({
+  hits: (b) => knownNumber(b.hits),
+  total_bases: (b) => knownNumber(b.totalBases),
+  rbi: (b) => knownNumber(b.rbi),
+  runs: (b) => knownNumber(b.runs),
+});
+
+const get = async (url) => (await axios.get(url, { timeout: 45_000 })).data;
+
+/** Eastern first pitch, conservatively. Anything at or after this is in-game. */
+const FIRST_PITCH_ET_HOUR = 19;
+
+/**
+ * Was this row logged BEFORE the games it grades?
+ *
+ * The pipeline runs on UTC cron hours, so a 01:00-UTC cycle is 21:00 the
+ * PREVIOUS evening in Eastern -- same game date, three hours into the slate.
+ */
+function isPreGame(capturedAt, gameDate) {
+  if (!capturedAt || !gameDate) return false;
+  const cap = new Date(capturedAt);
+  if (Number.isNaN(cap.getTime())) return false;
+  const et = new Date(cap.getTime() - 4 * 3600 * 1000);        // EDT
+  const etDate = et.toISOString().slice(0, 10);
+  if (etDate < String(gameDate)) return true;                   // day before, fine
+  if (etDate > String(gameDate)) return false;                  // day after, post-game
+  return et.getUTCHours() < FIRST_PITCH_ET_HOUR;
+}
+
+async function pool(items, fn, n = 6) {
+  const out = []; let i = 0;
+  await Promise.all(Array.from({ length: n }, async () => {
+    while (i < items.length) {
+      const idx = i; i += 1;
+      try { out[idx] = await fn(items[idx]); } catch { out[idx] = null; }
+    }
+  }));
+  return out.filter(Boolean);
+}
+
+async function page(sb, table, select, apply) {
+  const out = [];
+  for (let from = 0; ; from += PAGE) {
+    // STABLE ORDER. model_snapshots is a LIVE table -- the snapshot cron writes
+    // to it at 14/19/22/1/3 UTC -- and an unordered .range() walk over a table
+    // being appended to returns overlapping pages. The integrity gate caught
+    // exactly that on the first run.
+    const { data, error } = await apply(sb.from(table).select(select))
+      .order('id', { ascending: true })
+      .range(from, from + PAGE - 1);
+    if (error) throw error;
+    if (!data || data.length === 0) break;
+    out.push(...data);
+    if (data.length < PAGE) break;
+  }
+  return out;
+}
+
+/** Box-score batting lines for a date range, cached. */
+async function battingLines(dates) {
+  if (fs.existsSync(BOX_CACHE)) {
+    const c = JSON.parse(fs.readFileSync(BOX_CACHE, 'utf8'));
+    if (dates.every((d) => c.dates.includes(d))) return c.lines;
+  }
+  const games = [];
+  for (const d of dates) {
+    try {
+      const s = await get(`https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/schedule?sportId=1&date=${d}`);
+      for (const day of s.dates || []) {
+        for (const g of day.games || []) {
+          if (String(g.status && g.status.detailedState) === 'Final') {
+            games.push({ pk: g.gamePk, date: g.officialDate || d });
+          }
+        }
+      }
+    } catch { /* absent day */ }
+  }
+  console.error(`[settle] ${games.length} final games across ${dates.length} dates`);
+
+  const lines = {};
+  const loaded = await pool(games, async (g) => {
+    const box = await get(`https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/game/${g.pk}/boxscore`);
+    const out = [];
+    for (const side of ['home', 'away']) {
+      const t = box.teams[side];
+      if (!t) continue;
+      for (const id of t.batters || []) {
+        const pl = t.players[`ID${id}`];
+        const b = pl && pl.stats && pl.stats.batting;
+        if (!b || b.atBats == null) continue;      // did not bat -> absent, not zero
+        out.push({
+          date: g.date,
+          key: nameKey(pl.person && pl.person.fullName),
+          name: pl.person && pl.person.fullName,
+          gamePk: g.pk,
+          hits: b.hits, totalBases: b.totalBases, rbi: b.rbi, runs: b.runs, atBats: b.atBats,
+        });
+      }
+    }
+    return out;
+  });
+  for (const arr of loaded) for (const r of arr) {
+    const k = `${r.date}|${r.key}`;
+    // A doubleheader gives two lines; sum them — the prop covers the day.
+    if (!lines[k]) lines[k] = { ...r, games: 1 };
+    else {
+      lines[k].hits += r.hits; lines[k].totalBases += r.totalBases;
+      lines[k].rbi += r.rbi; lines[k].runs += r.runs; lines[k].atBats += r.atBats;
+      lines[k].games += 1;
+    }
+  }
+  fs.mkdirSync(path.dirname(BOX_CACHE), { recursive: true });
+  fs.writeFileSync(BOX_CACHE, JSON.stringify({ dates, lines }));
+  return lines;
+}
+
+async function main() {
+  const sb = createClient(SB_URL, SB_KEY, { auth: { persistSession: false } });
+
+  const snaps = await page(sb, 'model_snapshots',
+    'id, game_date, captured_at, stat, player_key, player_name, line, side, p_win, refused, outcome',
+    (q) => q.eq('sport', 'mlb').in('stat', STATS).is('outcome', null));
+  console.error(`[settle] ${snaps.length} unsettled snapshot rows`);
+
+  const dates = [...new Set(snaps.map((r) => r.game_date))].sort();
+  const lines = await battingLines(dates);
+
+  const counts = { candidates: snaps.length, settled: 0, unresolvable: 0, orphaned: 0, post_hoc_logged: 0 };
+  const updates = [];
+  const seenIds = new Set();
+
+  for (const s of snaps) {
+    // Belt and braces: ordered pagination should make this impossible, and a
+    // duplicate would double-count a prediction in every downstream measurement.
+    if (seenIds.has(s.id)) throw new Error(`INTEGRITY: duplicate snapshot id ${s.id}`);
+    seenIds.add(s.id);
+
+    // A row logged after first pitch is not a prediction.
+    //
+    // Measured: cycles at ET 21:00/22:00/23:00 on the game date (10,738 rows)
+    // were captured DURING or AFTER the games they grade, and a further 664 the
+    // following morning. Games start ~19:05 ET, so the honest cutoff is ET
+    // first pitch on the game date -- not a UTC date compare, which both keeps
+    // post-game 01:00-UTC rows and discards legitimate pre-dawn ones.
+    if (!isPreGame(s.captured_at, s.game_date)) {
+      counts.post_hoc_logged += 1; counts.unresolvable += 1; continue;
+    }
+    const line = knownNumber(s.line);
+    if (line === null || !s.side) { counts.unresolvable += 1; continue; }
+
+    const b = lines[`${s.game_date}|${s.player_key}`];
+    if (!b) { counts.orphaned += 1; continue; }
+
+    const realized = FIELD[s.stat](b);
+    if (realized === null) { counts.unresolvable += 1; continue; }
+
+    // SIDE-ALIGNED, so it matches how p_win is expressed.
+    const over = realized > line;
+    const won = String(s.side).toLowerCase() === 'under' ? !over : over;
+    updates.push({ id: s.id, outcome: won ? 'hit' : 'miss', actual_value: realized });
+    counts.settled += 1;
+  }
+
+  // CONSERVATION — hard fail.
+  const acc = counts.settled + counts.unresolvable + counts.orphaned;
+  if (acc !== counts.candidates) {
+    throw new Error(`INTEGRITY: conservation violated ${acc} != ${counts.candidates}`);
+  }
+
+  // Hand-verifiable sample.
+  const sample = updates.slice(0, 12).map((u) => {
+    const s = snaps.find((x) => x.id === u.id);
+    return { player: s.player_name, date: s.game_date, stat: s.stat, line: s.line, side: s.side,
+      realized: u.actual_value, outcome: u.outcome };
+  });
+
+  if (WRITE) {
+    let written = 0;
+    for (let i = 0; i < updates.length; i += 500) {
+      const batch = updates.slice(i, i + 500);
+      const results = await Promise.all(batch.map((u) => sb.from('model_snapshots')
+        .update({ outcome: u.outcome, actual_value: u.actual_value, settled_at: new Date().toISOString(), settlement_source: 'statsapi_boxscore' })
+        .eq('id', u.id).is('outcome', null)));
+      written += results.filter((r) => !r.error).length;
+    }
+    counts.written = written;
+  }
+
+  console.log(JSON.stringify({
+    mode: WRITE ? 'WRITE' : 'DRY RUN',
+    counts,
+    dates_before: 'ledger-only slice',
+    snapshot_dates: dates.length,
+    date_span: [dates[0], dates[dates.length - 1]],
+    hand_verify_sample: sample,
+    note: 'outcome is SIDE-ALIGNED (matches p_win); actual_value holds the raw realized stat',
+  }, null, 2));
+  process.exit(0);
+}
+
+main().catch((e) => { console.error(e); process.exit(1); });

scripts/test-favourite-bias-robust.js

@@ -0,0 +1,189 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env node
+'use strict';
+
+/**
+ * PHASE 1 — is the favourite-longshot bias real WITHOUT a calibration map?
+ *
+ * Four orders have refined a stability gate on 19 dates. LODO turned out to be
+ * structurally underpowered (0.014–0.093) and the deploy intervals rest on 2–4
+ * date clusters. So we stop certifying the stability of a specific MAP, and ask
+ * the one question this sample might actually answer:
+ *
+ *     does the model over-predict its own favourites, robustly?
+ *
+ * That claim is MODEL-FREE and MAP-FREE — it is a property of (p_win, outcome)
+ * pairs, needs no isotonic fit, and can therefore be tested without any of the
+ * machinery whose stability we cannot certify.
+ *
+ * ── DATE-BLOCK BOOTSTRAP ─────────────────────────────────────────────────
+ * Resampling ROWS would treat 200 props from one night as 200 readings of that
+ * night's offensive environment. Whole DATES are resampled instead, which is the
+ * honest unit and a far harsher one at 5–17 dates.
+ *
+ * VERDICT is pre-stated: ROBUST iff the >0.9 over-prediction sign survives in
+ * >=95% of pooled date-block resamples AND replicates in >=3 of 4 stats on the
+ * same criterion. Anything else is NOT-ROBUST, and NOT-ROBUST means we serve raw.
+ *
+ *   SUPABASE_URL=... node scripts/test-favourite-bias-robust.js
+ */
+
+require('dotenv').config();
+const fs = require('fs');
+const path = require('path');
+const { createClient } = require('@supabase/supabase-js');
+const guards = require('../src/services/model/calibrationGuards');
+const { knownNumber } = require('../src/utils/known');
+
+const BOX = path.join(process.cwd(), '.seq-cache', 'batting-lines.json');
+const STATS = ['hits', 'total_bases', 'rbi', 'runs'];
+const PAGE = 1000;
+const FAVOURITE_FLOOR = 0.9;
+const ITERS = 5000;
+/** Pre-stated pass marks. */
+const SIGN_STABILITY_REQUIRED = 0.95;
+const STATS_MUST_REPLICATE = 3;
+
+const FIELD = { hits: (b) => b.hits, total_bases: (b) => b.totalBases, rbi: (b) => b.rbi, runs: (b) => b.runs };
+const mean = (xs) => (xs.length ? xs.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / xs.length : null);
+
+async function page(sb, t, s, f) {
+  const o = [];
+  for (let i = 0; ; i += PAGE) {
+    const { data, error } = await f(sb.from(t).select(s)).order('id', { ascending: true }).range(i, i + PAGE - 1);
+    if (error) throw error;
+    if (!data.length) break;
+    o.push(...data);
+    if (data.length < PAGE) break;
+  }
+  return o;
+}
+const isPreGame = (c, g) => {
+  const et = new Date(new Date(c).getTime() - 4 * 3600 * 1000);
+  const d = et.toISOString().slice(0, 10);
+  return d < g || (d === g && et.getUTCHours() < 19);
+};
+function makeRnd(seed) {
+  let s = seed >>> 0;
+  return () => { s ^= s << 13; s >>>= 0; s ^= s >>> 17; s ^= s << 5; s >>>= 0; return s / 4294967296; };
+}
+
+/** Over-prediction in the favourite bin: predicted − realized. Positive = over. */
+function favouriteBias(rows) {
+  const fav = rows.filter((r) => r.p >= FAVOURITE_FLOOR);
+  if (fav.length < 5) return null;
+  return mean(fav.map((r) => r.p)) - mean(fav.map((r) => r.won));
+}
+
+/** Resample whole DATES with replacement; report how often the sign survives. */
+function dateBlockSignStability(rows, seed) {
+  const byDate = new Map();
+  for (const r of rows) {
+    if (!byDate.has(r.date)) byDate.set(r.date, []);
+    byDate.get(r.date).push(r);
+  }
+  const keys = [...byDate.keys()];
+  const rnd = makeRnd(seed);
+  let positive = 0; let indeterminate = 0; const draws = [];
+  for (let it = 0; it < ITERS; it += 1) {
+    const sample = [];
+    for (let i = 0; i < keys.length; i += 1) sample.push(...byDate.get(keys[Math.floor(rnd() * keys.length)]));
+    const b = favouriteBias(sample);
+    // A resample with too few favourites cannot speak — counted, never guessed.
+    if (b === null) { indeterminate += 1; continue; }
+    draws.push(b);
+    if (b > 0) positive += 1;
+  }
+  const usable = ITERS - indeterminate;
+  draws.sort((a, b) => a - b);
+  return {
+    date_blocks: keys.length,
+    usable_resamples: usable,
+    indeterminate_resamples: indeterminate,
+    sign_stability: usable ? round4(positive / usable) : null,
+    ci_90: draws.length ? [round4(draws[Math.floor(draws.length * 0.05)]), round4(draws[Math.floor(draws.length * 0.95)])] : null,
+  };
+}
+
+function deciles(rows) {
+  const out = [];
+  for (let lo = 0.3; lo < 1.0; lo += 0.1) {
+    const hi = lo + 0.1;
+    const slice = rows.filter((r) => r.p >= lo && (hi >= 1 ? r.p <= 1 : r.p < hi));
+    if (slice.length < 15) continue;
+    const pred = mean(slice.map((r) => r.p));
+    const real = mean(slice.map((r) => r.won));
+    out.push({ bin: [round2(lo), round2(hi)], n: slice.length, predicted: round4(pred), realized: round4(real), over_prediction: round4(pred - real) });
+  }
+  return out;
+}
+
+(async () => {
+  const sb = createClient(process.env.SUPABASE_URL,
+    process.env.SUPABASE_SERVICE_ROLE_KEY || process.env.SUPABASE_SERVICE_KEY, { auth: { persistSession: false } });
+  const lines = JSON.parse(fs.readFileSync(BOX, 'utf8')).lines;
+
+  const snaps = await page(sb, 'model_snapshots',
+    'id, game_date, captured_at, stat, player_key, line, side, p_win, refused',
+    (q) => q.eq('sport', 'mlb').in('stat', STATS));
+
+  const picked = new Map();
+  for (const r of snaps) {
+    if (!isPreGame(r.captured_at, r.game_date) || r.refused || knownNumber(r.p_win) === null) continue;
+    const k = [r.game_date, r.stat, r.player_key, r.line].join('|');
+    const prev = picked.get(k);
+    if (!prev || knownNumber(r.p_win) > knownNumber(prev.p_win)) picked.set(k, r);
+  }
+  guards.assertPickedSideDedup([...picked.values()].map((r) => ({
+    propKey: [r.game_date, r.stat, r.player_key, r.line].join('|'), side: r.side, p: knownNumber(r.p_win),
+  })));
+
+  const byStat = {}; const pooled = [];
+  for (const stat of STATS) byStat[stat] = [];
+  for (const r of picked.values()) {
+    const b = lines[`${r.game_date}|${r.player_key}`];
+    const L = knownNumber(r.line);
+    if (!b || L === null || !r.side) continue;
+    const v = knownNumber(FIELD[r.stat](b));
+    if (v === null) continue;
+    const over = v > L;
+    const row = { date: r.game_date, p: knownNumber(r.p_win), won: (String(r.side).toLowerCase() === 'under' ? !over : over) ? 1 : 0 };
+    byStat[r.stat].push(row); pooled.push(row);
+  }
+
+  const pooledResult = {
+    n: pooled.length,
+    deciles: deciles(pooled),
+    favourite_bias: round4(favouriteBias(pooled)),
+    ...dateBlockSignStability(pooled, 20260808),
+  };
+
+  const perStat = {};
+  let replicated = 0;
+  for (const stat of STATS) {
+    const rows = byStat[stat];
+    const fb = favouriteBias(rows);
+    const stab = dateBlockSignStability(rows, 20260808);
+    const ok = fb !== null && fb > 0 && stab.sign_stability !== null && stab.sign_stability >= SIGN_STABILITY_REQUIRED;
+    if (ok) replicated += 1;
+    perStat[stat] = { n: rows.length, deciles: deciles(rows), favourite_bias: fb === null ? null : round4(fb), ...stab, replicates: ok };
+  }
+
+  const pooledOk = pooledResult.favourite_bias > 0 && pooledResult.sign_stability >= SIGN_STABILITY_REQUIRED;
+  const verdict = pooledOk && replicated >= STATS_MUST_REPLICATE ? 'ROBUST' : 'NOT-ROBUST';
+
+  console.log(JSON.stringify({
+    phase: 'PHASE 1 — model-free, map-free favourite-longshot bias test',
+    criteria: { sign_stability_required: SIGN_STABILITY_REQUIRED, stats_must_replicate: STATS_MUST_REPLICATE, favourite_floor: FAVOURITE_FLOOR },
+    pooled: pooledResult,
+    per_stat: perStat,
+    stats_replicating: replicated,
+    VERDICT: verdict,
+    consequence: verdict === 'ROBUST'
+      ? 'proceed to a low-parameter correction, validated as a NEW estimator'
+      : 'serve raw; the bias is not certifiable on this sample',
+  }, null, 2));
+  process.exit(0);
+})().catch((e) => { console.error(e); process.exit(1); });
+
+const round4 = (v) => (v == null || !Number.isFinite(v) ? null : Math.round(v * 10000) / 10000);
+const round2 = (v) => Math.round(v * 100) / 100;

scripts/validate-lowparam.js

@@ -0,0 +1,131 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env node
+'use strict';
+
+/**
+ * PHASE 3 — validate the low-parameter correction as a NEW estimator.
+ *
+ * No grandfathering: it must beat RAW out-of-sample with a DATE-BLOCK bootstrap
+ * interval excluding zero. It is also scored against the retired isotonic map on
+ * the identical held-out rows, so the swap is a measured comparison rather than
+ * a preference.
+ */
+
+require('dotenv').config();
+const fs = require('fs');
+const path = require('path');
+const { createClient } = require('@supabase/supabase-js');
+const cal = require('../src/services/model/calibration');
+const lp = require('../src/services/model/lowParamCalibrator');
+const guards = require('../src/services/model/calibrationGuards');
+const { knownNumber } = require('../src/utils/known');
+
+const BOX = path.join(process.cwd(), '.seq-cache', 'batting-lines.json');
+const STATS = ['hits', 'total_bases', 'rbi', 'runs'];
+const PAGE = 1000; const ITERS = 4000;
+const FIELD = { hits: (b) => b.hits, total_bases: (b) => b.totalBases, rbi: (b) => b.rbi, runs: (b) => b.runs };
+const mean = (xs) => (xs.length ? xs.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / xs.length : null);
+
+async function page(sb, t, s, f) {
+  const o = [];
+  for (let i = 0; ; i += PAGE) {
+    const { data, error } = await f(sb.from(t).select(s)).order('id', { ascending: true }).range(i, i + PAGE - 1);
+    if (error) throw error; if (!data.length) break; o.push(...data); if (data.length < PAGE) break;
+  }
+  return o;
+}
+const isPreGame = (c, g) => {
+  const et = new Date(new Date(c).getTime() - 4 * 3600 * 1000);
+  const d = et.toISOString().slice(0, 10);
+  return d < g || (d === g && et.getUTCHours() < 19);
+};
+function makeRnd(seed) { let s = seed >>> 0; return () => { s ^= s << 13; s >>>= 0; s ^= s >>> 17; s ^= s << 5; s >>>= 0; return s / 4294967296; }; }
+
+/** Paired date-block bootstrap on a Brier difference. */
+function dateBlockCI(rows, keyA, keyB, seed) {
+  const byDate = new Map();
+  for (const r of rows) { if (!byDate.has(r.date)) byDate.set(r.date, []); byDate.get(r.date).push(r); }
+  const keys = [...byDate.keys()]; const rnd = makeRnd(seed); const diffs = [];
+  for (let it = 0; it < ITERS; it += 1) {
+    const s = [];
+    for (let i = 0; i < keys.length; i += 1) s.push(...byDate.get(keys[Math.floor(rnd() * keys.length)]));
+    const a = guards.safeBrier(s.map((r) => r[keyA]), s.map((r) => r.won));
+    const b = guards.safeBrier(s.map((r) => r[keyB]), s.map((r) => r.won));
+    if (a === null || b === null) continue;
+    diffs.push(a - b);
+  }
+  diffs.sort((x, y) => x - y);
+  return diffs.length
+    ? { ci: [round4(diffs[Math.floor(diffs.length * 0.025)]), round4(diffs[Math.floor(diffs.length * 0.975)])], date_blocks: keys.length }
+    : { ci: null, date_blocks: keys.length };
+}
+
+(async () => {
+  const sb = createClient(process.env.SUPABASE_URL, process.env.SUPABASE_SERVICE_ROLE_KEY || process.env.SUPABASE_SERVICE_KEY, { auth: { persistSession: false } });
+  const lines = JSON.parse(fs.readFileSync(BOX, 'utf8')).lines;
+  const snaps = await page(sb, 'model_snapshots', 'id, game_date, captured_at, stat, player_key, line, side, p_win, refused',
+    (q) => q.eq('sport', 'mlb').in('stat', STATS));
+
+  const picked = new Map();
+  for (const r of snaps) {
+    if (!isPreGame(r.captured_at, r.game_date) || r.refused || knownNumber(r.p_win) === null) continue;
+    const k = [r.game_date, r.stat, r.player_key, r.line].join('|');
+    const prev = picked.get(k);
+    if (!prev || knownNumber(r.p_win) > knownNumber(prev.p_win)) picked.set(k, r);
+  }
+  guards.assertPickedSideDedup([...picked.values()].map((r) => ({
+    propKey: [r.game_date, r.stat, r.player_key, r.line].join('|'), side: r.side, p: knownNumber(r.p_win) })));
+
+  const out = {};
+  for (const stat of STATS) {
+    const rows = [];
+    for (const r of picked.values()) {
+      if (r.stat !== stat) continue;
+      const b = lines[`${r.game_date}|${r.player_key}`]; const L = knownNumber(r.line);
+      if (!b || L === null || !r.side) continue;
+      const v = knownNumber(FIELD[stat](b)); if (v === null) continue;
+      const over = v > L;
+      rows.push({ date: r.game_date, p: knownNumber(r.p_win), won: (String(r.side).toLowerCase() === 'under' ? !over : over) ? 1 : 0 });
+    }
+    rows.sort((a, b) => String(a.date).localeCompare(String(b.date)));
+    const dates = [...new Set(rows.map((r) => r.date))].sort();
+    const perDate = new Map(); for (const r of rows) perDate.set(r.date, (perDate.get(r.date) || 0) + 1);
+    let acc = 0; let cut = dates[dates.length - 1];
+    for (const d of dates) { acc += perDate.get(d); if (acc >= rows.length * 0.45) { cut = d; break; } }
+
+    const fit = rows.filter((r) => r.date < cut);
+    const ev = rows.filter((r) => r.date >= cut);
+    const platt = lp.fitPlatt(fit);
+    const iso = cal.fitIsotonic(fit.map((r) => ({ p: r.p, won: r.won })));
+
+    if (!platt || ev.length < 50) {
+      out[stat] = { n: rows.length, fit_n: fit.length, eval_n: ev.length, decision: 'REFUSE', reason: 'no low-parameter fit or too little held out' };
+      continue;
+    }
+    const scored = ev.map((r) => ({ ...r, plat: lp.applyPlatt(platt, r.p), isoP: iso ? cal.applyIsotonic(iso, r.p) : null }))
+      .filter((r) => knownNumber(r.plat) !== null);
+    const ys = scored.map((r) => r.won);
+    const bRaw = guards.safeBrier(scored.map((r) => r.p), ys);
+    const bPlat = guards.safeBrier(scored.map((r) => r.plat), ys);
+    const isoRows = scored.filter((r) => knownNumber(r.isoP) !== null);
+    const bIso = isoRows.length ? guards.safeBrier(isoRows.map((r) => r.isoP), isoRows.map((r) => r.won)) : null;
+
+    const vsRaw = dateBlockCI(scored, 'plat', 'p', 20260808);
+    const vsIso = isoRows.length ? dateBlockCI(isoRows, 'plat', 'isoP', 20260808) : { ci: null };
+
+    const beatsRaw = bPlat < bRaw && vsRaw.ci && vsRaw.ci[1] < 0;
+    out[stat] = {
+      n: rows.length, dates: dates.length, split_at: cut, fit_n: fit.length, eval_n: scored.length,
+      platt: { a: platt.a, b: platt.b, flattens: platt.flattens, fit_dates: platt.fit_dates, shrinkage: platt.shrinkage },
+      brier_raw: round4(bRaw), brier_lowparam: round4(bPlat), brier_isotonic: bIso === null ? null : round4(bIso),
+      delta_vs_raw: round4(bPlat - bRaw), ci_vs_raw: vsRaw.ci, eval_date_blocks: vsRaw.date_blocks,
+      delta_vs_isotonic: bIso === null ? null : round4(bPlat - bIso), ci_vs_isotonic: vsIso.ci,
+      decision: beatsRaw ? 'DEPLOY-PROVISIONAL' : 'REFUSE',
+      reason: beatsRaw ? 'beats raw out-of-sample with a date-block interval excluding zero'
+        : 'does not beat raw at a date-block interval excluding zero',
+    };
+  }
+  console.log(JSON.stringify(out, null, 2));
+  process.exit(0);
+})().catch((e) => { console.error(e); process.exit(1); });
+
+const round4 = (v) => (v == null || !Number.isFinite(v) ? null : Math.round(v * 10000) / 10000);

specs/accrual-watch-and-resumption.md

@@ -0,0 +1,120 @@
+# The accrual watch — the program is idle on modeling, and that is correct
+
+## PHASE 0 — live-surface integrity
+
+| check | result |
+|---|---|
+| Grade bands not derived from the retired champion | **PASS** — `gradeBands` is required by *no* serving code. Built across several orders, never wired. No stale band can reach a user because none reaches a user at all. |
+| No withdrawn-map leak | **PASS** — `CALIBRATION_DEPLOYED` is `[]` and the calibrate loop iterates it, so `calibrate()` is never called. The only `p_win_calibrated` assignment sits inside that empty loop. Served `p_win` is repaired-champion raw. |
+| Refusals on the repaired reference | **PASS** — `projectionFor` reads `l20_avg`, which `mlbGameLogFeatures` now builds from `fullLog`. |
+| Factors still fire post-repair | **PASS** — the repair moved the base they adjust, so sign was re-verified across it: at base 0.35/0.50/0.65/0.80, defence lowers, pitcher-contact raises, platoon raises at every point. Firing check only; **not** a lift re-measurement. |
+
+### One defect found, and it was mine
+
+The grade card rendered **"Last 20 games average: X"** from `l20_avg` — a field
+that, after the repair, holds a **full-season** average. The number moved and the
+label did not, so the surface asserted a window that no longer existed. Fixed to
+"Season average"; `trapDetection`'s L20 explanations likewise.
+
+Same class as everything else tonight, one layer out: **a correct-looking string
+describing data that moved underneath it.**
+
+---
+
+## PHASE 1 — the existence risk, resolved
+
+Nineteen commits (`7b85934` → `2391574`) were local-only with no push
+credentials. Three retrievable artifacts now exist:
+
+| artifact | path | size |
+|---|---|---|
+| session bundle | `~/vyndr-session-2026-08-07.bundle` | 244K |
+| **full-history bundle (self-contained)** | `~/vyndr-full-history-2026-08-07.bundle` | 6.8M |
+| patch series (20 files) | `~/vyndr-session-patches/` | 1.5M |
+
+**Use the full-history bundle** — the session bundle verifies as requiring ref
+`6452926…`, so it only applies onto a repo that already has this history. The
+full-history one clones standalone:
+
+```
+git clone ~/vyndr-full-history-2026-08-07.bundle vyndr-recovered
+```
+
+**This is the top non-accrual action item.** Copy one of these off the machine.
+
+---
+
+## PHASE 2 — the accrual watch
+
+```
+repaired champion marker: engine1@2026-08-07-fullwindow
+eligible rows: 0 | eligible dates: 0
+blocked: no settled rows yet carry the repaired champion marker
+```
+
+| item | need | have | status |
+|---|---|---|---|
+| calibration re-fit | 10 dates | 0 | WAITING |
+| hits factor lift | 10 dates | 0 | WAITING |
+| prior verdict re-audit | 14 dates | 0 | WAITING |
+| rbi lineup-slot gate | 14 dates | 0 | WAITING |
+
+Zero is the correct starting line: the repair ships in *this* session's commits,
+so no settled row can carry the marker yet.
+
+### These are ATTEMPT floors, not TRUST floors
+
+**Reaching 10 dates means "the calibration re-fit can now be measured." It does
+NOT mean the re-fit is trustworthy.** We lived this distinction the hard way
+tonight: date-block CIs on 2–4 clusters, a LODO gate with 1.4–9.3% power, and a
+≥40 date-cluster bar that was correct as a promotion bar and wrong as a deploy
+bar. A 10-date map is thin. It deploys **PROVISIONAL with auto-demotion**, like
+everything else, and its interval will still be wide.
+
+**No future session may read "threshold met" as "answer certified."**
+
+### Real-time estimates
+
+Roughly one MLB slate per day, but per-stat settled volume differs — hits props
+are far more numerous than rbi, and a "date" only counts once its props settle.
+
+| item | dates | realistic wall-clock |
+|---|---|---|
+| calibration re-fit, hits lift | 10 | **~2 weeks** |
+| verdict re-audit, rbi gate | 14 | **3+ weeks** (rbi accrues slowest) |
+
+The wait is **designed, not a stall.** The alternative — measuring on
+reconstructions of a retired forecast — is the trap this program has now refused
+by name three times.
+
+---
+
+## PHASE 3 — the pre-registered resumption order
+
+Triggered purely by eligible-date thresholds. No re-litigation, no re-deciding:
+
+1. **@10 dates — calibration re-fit on the repaired champion.** Low-parameter,
+   LODO where powered, PROVISIONAL, auto-demotion armed, shadow duel restarts on
+   the repaired forecast. The favourite-longshot bias must be **re-measured**,
+   not assumed to have survived the repair.
+2. **@10 dates — hits factor composed-lift re-measure.** The 1.39% figure is
+   **void** — measured on the broken baseline. Direction unknown.
+3. **@14 dates — prior factor verdict re-audit.** Every null and every THEATER
+   was scored against a champion worse than a frequency table. Not pre-priced;
+   some may pass, some may still fail.
+4. **@14 dates — rbi lineup-slot / RISP through the two-part gate.** World A
+   ~90%, within-role residual 0.01908 real, `lineup_context` prod-verified (S89).
+
+**FIRST TRIGGER:** when `reAuditEligibility.assess()` reports **10 eligible
+calibration dates**, the next order is the calibration re-fit.
+
+**Until then the program is honestly IDLE on modeling.** That is the correct
+state, not a gap to fill.
+
+---
+
+## Invariants
+
+No measurement on reconstructions — held. Phase 0 verified live integrity and
+factor *firing*; it did not re-measure lift or re-fit calibration. Serving change
+for the label fix, fingerprinted. `p_win` never mutated. No Bonferroni slot.

specs/champion-repair.md

@@ -0,0 +1,124 @@
+# The champion was reading ten games — repaired
+
+## PHASE 0 — the defect is real past the peek
+
+The prior baseline peeked at the evaluation window. This one does not: for every
+prop the naive forecast is **that player's rate of clearing that line over games
+strictly before that date**, from box scores back to 2026-05-01, requiring ≥10
+prior games. Same temporal discipline the champion is held to.
+
+| stat | n | champion | **fair PIT baseline** | gap | CI | loses |
+|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
+| hits | 799 | 0.00251 | **0.00774** | −0.00523 | [−0.0074, −0.0011] | **yes** |
+| total_bases | 832 | 0.00393 | **0.00619** | −0.00226 | [−0.0055, −0.0003] | **yes** |
+| rbi | 501 | 0.02481 | **0.03133** | −0.00652 | [−0.0153, −0.0005] | **yes** |
+| runs | 473 | 0.00181 | **0.00683** | −0.00502 | [−0.0114, +0.0008] | yes (CI touches) |
+
+**Confirmed, not an artefact of the peek.** Three of four CIs exclude zero. The
+served forecast was reliably worse than a frequency table.
+
+---
+
+## PHASE 1 — the cause: the window, not the weights
+
+`estimateProbability` computes its base rate as the frequency over **every row it
+is handed**. It was handed ten:
+
+```js
+// featureCache.getStatRows, MLB branch
+const logs = res.last10;        // <- the "season rate" was a TEN-GAME rate
+```
+
+So the forecast was `0.6 × (ten-game frequency) + 0.4 × (last five OF THOSE TEN)`
+— a five-game read carrying 40% of the weight, on top of a ten-game base.
+
+Resolution by variant, all point-in-time:
+
+| stat | champion | season only | w=0.20 | w=0.40 | w=0.60 | best |
+|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
+| hits | 0.00251 | 0.00774 | **0.00817** | 0.00688 | 0.00647 | w=0.20 |
+| total_bases | 0.00393 | 0.00619 | **0.00734** | 0.00512 | 0.00485 | w=0.20 |
+| rbi | 0.02481 | **0.03133** | 0.02727 | 0.02571 | 0.02559 | season only |
+| runs | 0.00181 | **0.00683** | 0.00436 | 0.00318 | 0.00180 | season+nudge |
+
+**The 0.40 recency weight costs resolution on all four stats** (−0.00086,
+−0.00107, −0.00562, −0.00365). The nudges are mixed and small: harmful on hits
+(−0.00157) and rbi (−0.00284), marginally helpful on TB (+0.00091) and runs
+(+0.00056) — left alone, since the evidence does not support removing them.
+
+---
+
+## PHASE 2 — the repair
+
+Two lines, no new data, no extra API call — **`fullLog` was already being fetched
+by the same adapter call that produced `last10`**:
+
+1. `featureCache.getStatRows` MLB branch reads `fullLog`, falling back to
+   `last10`.
+2. `RECENCY_WEIGHT` 0.40 → **0.20**, set at the value the measurement supports.
+
+| stat | OLD | **REPAIRED** | fair baseline | vs baseline | CI | vs old champion |
+|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
+| hits | 0.00251 | **0.00817** | 0.00774 | **+0.00043** | [−0.0030, +0.0025] | +0.00566 |
+| total_bases | 0.00393 | **0.00734** | 0.00619 | **+0.00115** | [−0.0014, +0.0046] | +0.00341, **CI [0.0020, 0.0067]** |
+| rbi | 0.02481 | 0.02727 | 0.03133 | −0.00406 | [−0.0091, +0.0020] | +0.00246 |
+| runs | 0.00181 | 0.00436 | 0.00683 | −0.00247 | [−0.0088, +0.0014] | +0.00255 |
+
+**Hits resolution tripled; total_bases and runs roughly doubled.**
+
+**Gate assessment, stated exactly:** hits and total_bases now exceed the fair
+baseline on the point estimate; rbi and runs remain below it but **every CI now
+includes zero.** So no stat *reliably loses* to a frequency table any more, which
+satisfies "beat or tie, never lose" in the only sense this sample can support. It
+is a tie on rbi/runs, not a win, and it is reported as one. Only total_bases'
+improvement over the old champion is CI-confirmed; the rest are directional.
+
+### The stale-fit gate — calibration is OFF
+
+The low-parameter maps were fitted on the retired forecast, and `fromLedger`
+cannot rescue them: settled ledger rows still carry OLD `p_win` values, so
+refitting today would fit the retired forecast again.
+
+**`CALIBRATION_DEPLOYED` is now empty.** Nothing is served calibrated until
+enough dates settle under the repaired champion, and the favourite-longshot bias
+must be **re-measured** on the new forecast rather than assumed to have survived.
+The shadow duel is likewise void. Serving the raw repaired number is the honest
+state, not a regression.
+
+---
+
+## PHASE 3 — the hits factor lift, NOT re-measured
+
+Honest answer: it **cannot** be measured yet. The three proven hits factors were
+measured against the old baseline, and re-measuring their lift on the repaired
+champion requires settled rows produced *by* the repaired champion. Those do not
+exist — the repair ships in this commit. Replaying it would score the factors
+against a reconstruction rather than the served forecast.
+
+**Deferred to the first order after the repaired champion has settled dates.**
+The factors remain wired and transmitting (43f65d3, sign-verified, 75% coverage);
+only their *lift* is unquantified on the new baseline.
+
+---
+
+## PHASE 4 — log and re-queue
+
+**Standing flag, and it is a large one:** every factor verdict in this
+programme — every null, every THEATER — was measured against a champion that was
+worse than a frequency table. Signal added to noise reads as noise. **Prior
+verdicts may deserve re-audit on the repaired champion.** Not re-run here; logged
+as standing.
+
+**Re-queued, not built — rbi lineup-slot / RISP opportunity** through the
+two-part gate, now landing on a repaired champion. World A ~90%, within-role
+residual 0.01908 real, `lineup_context` ingested and prod-verified (S89). That is
+the next factor order.
+
+---
+
+## Invariants
+
+Serving-path change by design — the byte-identical invariant inverted again, and
+all four stats' numbers move. Nine frozen model modules verified unchanged.
+`p_win` is the forecast itself, not mutated post-hoc. No Bonferroni slot: this is
+resolution accounting on the champion's own knobs, not a causal claim.

specs/collapsed-sequence-edge.md

@@ -0,0 +1,111 @@
+# The collapsed sequence edge — two proven links whose product is too small to use
+
+**Both components are real. Their product is 0.37pp, and detecting it would take
+52 seasons.** This is the most instructive negative in the programme so far,
+because nothing in it failed: link-by-link proof did not produce a usable edge.
+
+---
+
+## One correction to the framing
+
+The order states Link 2 proved you *can't* predict the reliever. Half true, and
+the other half matters: the **individual** grain failed (17.2% accuracy), but the
+**quality** grain PROVED — predicted pen quality separates 2.70pp of realized hit
+rate. Pen-season-quality here is a measured predictor, not a fallback after a
+failure. That strengthened the plan going in.
+
+## Two of the three specified inputs could not be used honestly
+
+| specified | status |
+|---|---|
+| pen **quality** | PROVEN (Link 2 coarse grain) — used |
+| pen **archetype** | did NOT prove (0.5669 vs 0.5309 modal baseline, corrected interval spanning zero) — **excluded**, building it in would chain on an unproven link |
+| hitter **approach identity** ("fastball-hunter", "finesse-vulnerable") | **does not exist** in this registry. MLB batter archetypes are BOMBER / GHOST / TORCH / BRUSH / DRIVER / FLEX / ALPHA / HYBRID / CATALYST. Inventing an identity to condition on is the fabrication the gate exists to catch |
+
+A hitter power/contact split derived from the sequence data itself was tested as a
+**separate gated addition** rather than assumed into the main effect. Neither half
+proved (power −0.0002, contact −0.0001, both intervals spanning zero).
+
+---
+
+## The gate — two-part, on the concentrated subset, 114 cumulative tests
+
+| subset | n | games | mean shift | Brier Δ | CI | verdict |
+|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
+| concentrated (early-exit × WEAK pen) | 1,931 | 141 | 0.0193 | −0.0001 | [−0.0014, +0.0010] | NOT_PROVEN |
+| mirror (early-exit × STRONG pen) | 2,574 | 189 | 0.0186 | 0.0000 | [−0.0011, +0.0010] | **THEATER** |
+| all early-exit later ABs | 6,869 | 451 | 0.0140 | −0.0001 | [−0.0007, +0.0005] | NOT_PROVEN |
+| pooled all later ABs | 17,891 | 803 | 0.0141 | 0.0000 | [−0.0004, +0.0003] | **THEATER** |
+
+Not pooled-diluted: the concentrated subset was gated on its own and is no
+better. Two subsets are THEATER by the gate's own definition — the adjustment
+moves the number ~1.9pp and improves accuracy by essentially nothing.
+
+---
+
+## Why: the mechanical ceiling
+
+The descriptive pass found the direction the order predicted (early-exit + weak
+pen +0.74pp, early-exit + strong pen −0.79pp vs a deep-starter baseline). The
+signs are right. The magnitude is the problem, and it is structural:
+
+```
+P(faces pen | early-exit flagged)  0.8075
+P(faces pen | starter goes deep)   0.7149
+  exposure the flag actually buys  0.0925      <- NOT a switch to the pen
+
+hit-rate swing across pen quality  0.0394      (weak 0.2491 vs strong 0.2038)
+
+MAX JUSTIFIABLE ADJUSTMENT = 0.0925 x 0.0394 = 0.00365   (0.37pp)
+adjustment actually applied (mean |shift|)   = 0.01930   (1.93pp)
+OVER-MOVEMENT FACTOR                          = 5.3x
+```
+
+**A hitter's third or fourth plate appearance is ALREADY against the bullpen 71%
+of the time even when the starter is projected to go deep.** Link 1 lifts that to
+81%. It buys nine points of extra pen exposure, not a change of opponent — so any
+adjustment riding on it is capped at about a tenth of the pen-quality swing.
+
+The 5.3× over-movement is exactly why the mirror subset reads as THEATER rather
+than as a small true effect: the adjustment asserts five times more than the
+mechanism can support.
+
+### And a correctly-scaled version is not detectable either
+
+```
+concentrated subset n = 1,931   SE of hit rate = 0.00985
+max justifiable effect 0.00365 = 0.37 SE
+to detect at the corrected bar (z~3.46 for 114 tests): n = 168,488
+shortfall 87x  ->  ~52 seasons of concentrated-subset accrual
+```
+
+**This line is structurally closed, not sample-blocked.** Waiting does not fix it.
+
+---
+
+## Not wired, and the self-check deliberately not wired either
+
+The adjustment does not prove, so it feeds nothing. The order also asks for a
+self-check flagging where our sequence read diverges from the line's
+starter-script, as an opportunity signal. **That is not wired**, because flagging
+divergence on an adjustment measured as absent would advertise an edge we have
+just shown does not exist — the same failure as fabricated reasoning, one layer up.
+
+## The lesson worth keeping
+
+Link 1 proved (MAE 3.22 → 2.80 batters faced). Link 2's quality grain proved
+(2.70pp of realized separation). Both are real, both are point-in-time, both
+survived cumulative correction. **Their product is still too small to use.**
+
+Link-by-link validation guarantees each link is real. It does not guarantee the
+chain transmits anything. The multiplicative structure has to be sized BEFORE
+building — one exposure term of 0.09 is enough to reduce a genuine 3.94pp signal
+to noise, and no amount of downstream care recovers it.
+
+## Parallel track — total_bases per-archetype (logged, not run)
+
+Unchanged: `total_bases` settled n=948 pooled, BOMBER × TB **340**, short by 160.
+Sample-readiness only, not a verdict. The `specs/per-archetype-grade-bands.md`
+blocker still stands — the grade does not yet separate within any archetype.
+
+Link 3 confirmed SKIPPED. Counter and frozen clusters byte-identical.

specs/factor-wiring-hits.md

@@ -0,0 +1,142 @@
+# Wiring the three proven hits factors — transmission proven, gain inconclusive
+
+## The bug this order nearly shipped as a finding
+
+The first audit run reported **0 factors fired on all 1,140 rows**. Not a
+modelling result — my paging helper ordered by `id`, and `batter_spray`,
+`team_defense`, `platoon_splits` and `statcast_aggregates` have **composite
+primary keys with no `id` column**. The query errored, the loop broke on error,
+and four fully-populated tables read as empty.
+
+`hitsFactorContext.js` — the *production* loader — had the identical defect, so
+the live wiring would have loaded nothing and served unadjusted forecasts while
+logging success.
+
+**Third occurrence of this class in one session** (doubled `/leaderboard`, the
+silent settlement outage, this). Both loaders now order by a real column and
+**throw** rather than degrade, because a wiring fault must not be able to wear
+the costume of an honest absence.
+
+The Phase 2 transmission gate is what caught it: no resolution number was quoted
+until transmission was proved mechanically.
+
+---
+
+## PHASE 1 — the pipeline, in order
+
+```
+base rate  ->  FACTORS (pre-grade)  ->  CALIBRATE  ->  GRADE
+```
+
+- `model/hitsFactors.js` — the three proven factors composed, each applying only
+  where it proved, bounded at ±0.25 combined.
+- `model/hitsFactorContext.js` — loads the inputs **once per slate**, indexed.
+- `snapshotService` builds the context **before** `gradeAndCacheSlate`; it was
+  previously computed at line 640+, downstream of the grade at 454.
+- `gradeSlateService` threads it per prop; `analyzeViaEngine1` applies it to
+  `p_over` **before** `p_win` is set, recording `p_win_prefactor` and a full
+  `factor_adjustment` trace.
+
+Hits only. TB/rbi/runs have no proven factors and are untouched.
+
+**Coverage: 859 of 1,140 rows (75%) have at least one factor fire** — 474 with
+all three, 256 with two, 129 with one, 281 with none.
+
+---
+
+## PHASE 2 — transmission, proven mechanically
+
+Each factor applied **in isolation** to the same base. (My first table compared
+each factor's expected sign against the *composite* change and showed 3 false
+failures — with three factors firing, the net can oppose any single member. That
+was a flaw in the test, not the wiring.)
+
+| factor | player | side | expected | mult | p before | p after (solo) | sign |
+|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
+| pitcher_contact | Travis Bazzana | over | raise | 1.0396 | 0.604 | 0.6279 | ✓ |
+| platoon_severity | Travis Bazzana | over | raise | 1.0860 | 0.604 | 0.6559 | ✓ |
+| pitcher_contact | Patrick Bailey | over | raise | 1.0396 | 0.604 | 0.6279 | ✓ |
+| pitcher_contact | Kyle Manzardo | **under** | raise p(over) | 1.0396 | 0.684 | 0.6715 | ✓ |
+| platoon_severity | Kyle Manzardo | **under** | raise p(over) | 1.0350 | 0.684 | 0.6729 | ✓ |
+| defense_by_direction | Royce Lewis | over | lower | 0.9690 | 0.577 | 0.5591 | ✓ |
+| platoon_severity | Royce Lewis | over | lower | 0.9650 | 0.577 | 0.5568 | ✓ |
+| pitcher_contact | Petey Halpin | over | raise | 1.0396 | 0.662 | 0.6882 | ✓ |
+| platoon_severity | Chase DeLauter | over | lower | 0.9620 | 0.838 | 0.8062 | ✓ |
+| defense_by_direction | Gabriel Arias | over | raise | 1.0400 | 0.536 | 0.5574 | ✓ |
+| defense_by_direction | Austin Hedges | over | raise | 1.0390 | 0.685 | 0.7117 | ✓ |
+| defense_by_direction | Ryan Kreidler | over | lower | 0.9560 | 0.523 | 0.5000 | ✓ |
+
+**12/12 sign-correct — 4/4 for each of the three factors.** The two `under` rows
+confirm the flip is handled: a factor raising p(over) correctly *lowers* p_win.
+
+**Unreadables static:** Patrick Bailey, Josh Bell and Brayan Rocchio are switch
+hitters — spray applied to none of them, while their other factors fired
+normally. The refusal is selective, not a blanket skip.
+
+**TRANSMISSION PASSES.** Resolution may now be quoted.
+
+---
+
+## PHASE 3/4 — refit and OOS measurement
+
+Both calibration maps refit on the factor-adjusted forecast (the un-factored
+distribution no longer exists). **The shadow-duel baseline is VOID and restarts**
+— it accumulated against a different forecast.
+
+Point-in-time, fit on dates < 2026-08-02, evaluated on 765 held-out rows:
+
+| | reliability | **resolution** | uncertainty | **variance explained** |
+|---|---|---|---|---|
+| before (four-input) | 0.00795 | 0.00229 | 0.2476 | **0.93%** |
+| **after (factor-adjusted)** | 0.00828 | **0.00345** | 0.2476 | **1.39%** |
+
+**Resolution rose 51% relative (+0.00116).** Held-out Brier 0.25398 → 0.25305,
+**delta −0.00093, date-block CI [−0.00225, +0.00002]**.
+
+**The CI touches zero on 4 eval dates. The composition does NOT earn a proven
+keep.** The point estimate favours the factors and the resolution gain is real in
+sample, but the honest verdict is **INCONCLUSIVE** — three isolated passes did
+not grant a composed pass, exactly as the order anticipated.
+
+**Double-counting note:** the gain is far below the sum of the isolated factor
+effects. Expected — defence, pitcher contact and platoon all run through the same
+pitcher-batter confrontation and share signal.
+
+---
+
+## PHASE 5 — bands and the honest headline
+
+Resolution moved from 0.93% to 1.39% of variance. **Both are far below what band
+separation requires** — a forecast explaining 1.4% of an outcome's variance
+cannot produce archetype bands that clear their own base rate.
+
+**The headline, landed as it fell:** the pivot was correct and incomplete. The
+plumbing defect was real and is fixed — three proven factors now reach the served
+number for the first time, verified sign-by-sign. But **transmission alone did
+not buy grade separation.** The factors are real and too weak *in combination* at
+current strength.
+
+So the next arc is **factor STRENGTH and BREADTH, not more plumbing.** The wiring
+is now a working conduit with three things flowing through it; it needs more, and
+stronger.
+
+---
+
+## PHASE 6 — the rbi anomaly, logged only
+
+`rbi` shows **14.51% variance explained vs hits 1.03%** — 13×, on the stat we do
+*not* serve corrected and which has **no proven factors**. Open question for the
+next order: real counter structure (its four inputs happen to discriminate on a
+stat where opportunity is lumpier), or an artefact of line placement and
+base-rate spread? **Not investigated here.** It is either the biggest lever on
+the board or a mirage, and it deserves its own order.
+
+---
+
+## Invariants
+
+The byte-identical invariant **inverted** for hits by design — the served hits
+number should move, and does. TB/rbi/runs paths and all frozen non-hits modules
+verified unchanged. `p_win_prefactor` preserves the un-factored forecast in the
+trace. No new Bonferroni slot (the factors were already proven); the composed
+OOS claim is reported with its CI and is **not** claimed as a pass.

specs/link2-pen-quality.md

@@ -0,0 +1,130 @@
+# Link 2 at the coarse grain — pen QUALITY proves, archetype does not
+
+**The refinement was right.** Naming the individual reliever failed; asking the
+same question at the grain the chain actually needs passes, and the payoff it
+transmits is larger than anything else measured in this chain.
+
+---
+
+## Why this was worth re-asking
+
+Last session closed Link 2 on the individual grain and separately measured that
+the bullpen is, on average, no softer than the starter (+0.0010 on 35,760 plate
+appearances). That null does **not** rule this out, and conflating the two would
+have been an error: an average washing out is entirely consistent with QUALITY
+VARIATION mattering a great deal.
+
+It does. Measured on 18,809 post-starter plate appearances against arms with ≥40
+prior appearances:
+
+| arm faced (prior allowed-hit-rate quartile) | n | realized hit rate |
+|---|---|---|
+| Q1 — best arms | 4,702 | **0.2244** ±0.0119 |
+| Q2 | 4,702 | 0.2293 |
+| Q3 | 4,702 | 0.2410 |
+| Q4 — worst arms | 4,702 | **0.2501** ±0.0124 |
+
+Monotone, spread **+2.57pp** — larger than the whole times-through-the-order
+effect (+1.6pp) and far larger than the pen-vs-starter difference (−0.7pp).
+
+---
+
+## The cluster unit, corrected — and then checked rather than argued
+
+Last session refused Link 2 partly as a team-borne prediction: 30 bullpens, the
+park-geometry ceiling. For QUALITY that argument needed re-testing, and the first
+number I reached for was the wrong one.
+
+- **Treatment variance:** 76% of a game's pen-quality variance is WITHIN team.
+  That says pen quality is not chiefly a club property — but it is a statement
+  about the treatment, not about where ERRORS correlate, and those are different
+  claims. Stopping there would have been picking the convenient answer.
+- **Measured directly:** ICC of the prediction ERROR by team = **0.0261**. With
+  16.7 rows per club that is a design effect of 1.41, inflating standard errors
+  ~19% — small, but not nothing on a marginal interval.
+
+So the verdict was checked under all three treatments rather than resting on the
+most favourable:
+
+| inference treatment | CI on loss delta | |
+|---|---|---|
+| unclustered | [−0.0067, −0.0010] | excludes zero |
+| team-clustered (30 clusters, floor overridden — indicative only) | [−0.0086, −0.0003] | excludes zero |
+| design-effect adjusted (deff 1.41) | [−0.0072, −0.0005] | excludes zero |
+
+It survives all three. Note the team-clustered run sits below this codebase's own
+40-cluster floor and is reported as indicative, not as a pass.
+
+---
+
+## The gate
+
+Concentrated subset as instructed — team-games where Link 1's point-in-time
+early-exit signal is elevated (predicted ≤22 batters faced), i.e. where the pen
+actually enters for the later plate appearances.
+
+### QUALITY grain — **PROVES**
+
+```
+n=501 team-games · 426 game clusters · 110 cumulative tests
+MAE 0.0294 (league-average baseline) -> 0.0260   delta -0.0034
+CI [-0.0063,-0.0005] at 0.9995                   VERDICT: PROVES
+```
+Pooled across all games it also proves (n=1,305, delta −0.0030, CI [−0.0049,
+−0.0015]), so the result is not an artefact of the subset.
+
+### ARCHETYPE grain — **NOT PROVEN**
+
+```
+n=501 · modal-guess baseline 0.5309 -> model 0.5669
+corrected interval [-0.1073, +0.0268] spans zero
+VERDICT: NOT_PROVEN_AT_CORRECTED_BAR
+```
+Two grains were tested; one earned a place. `penQuality.js` deliberately exposes
+no archetype, and a test asserts it.
+
+---
+
+## What Link 3 actually receives
+
+The number that matters is not the MAE gain but how much real outcome separation
+the prediction buys — measured on realized outcomes, prediction strictly
+point-in-time:
+
+| our prediction | games | PAs | realized hit rate |
+|---|---|---|---|
+| predicted BEST pen (bottom tercile) | 167 | 2,044 | **0.2231** ±0.0180 |
+| predicted WORST pen (top tercile) | 167 | 1,799 | **0.2501** ±0.0200 |
+
+**2.70pp of realized separation**, intervals non-overlapping — capturing nearly
+all of the 2.57pp available at the quartile grain. corr(predicted, actual pen
+quality) = 0.393.
+
+Caveat stated rather than buried: the tercile split point is chosen in-sample.
+The prediction driving the separation is point-in-time, so this is a forward
+measurement, but the cut is not.
+
+---
+
+## Built
+
+`src/services/model/penQuality.js` (+ 9 tests) — the proven half, ready for Link
+3. `projectPen` abstains below 5 prior club games; `armQuality` abstains below 40
+appearances. A league-average stand-in would assert "this is an ordinary
+bullpen", which is a claim, and usually the wrong one for exactly the clubs whose
+pens have just turned over.
+
+`hitRateShift` carries the measured consequence, bounded — it was measured over a
+range and is not extrapolated past one.
+
+**Link 3 is now unblocked** on a proven Link 2 at the quality grain only. It is
+not run here; the order scopes this session to building and gating Link 2.
+
+## Parallel track — total_bases per-archetype (logged, not run)
+
+Unchanged from last session: `total_bases` settled n=948 pooled, BOMBER × TB
+**340**, short by 160. Sample-readiness only, not a verdict. The second blocker
+from `specs/per-archetype-grade-bands.md` still applies — the grade does not yet
+separate within any archetype.
+
+Counter and frozen clusters byte-identical.

specs/lodo-instrument-audit.md

@@ -0,0 +1,170 @@
+# Auditing the LODO instrument — it cannot evaluate any stat
+
+**All four stats are UNTESTABLE-BY-LODO. Not one exceeds its reversal cutoff, so
+rbi's and runs' prior FAILs were both false. And no stat may claim LODO
+stability, because at this date count the test cannot fail.**
+
+---
+
+## PHASE 0 — the defect, on record
+
+The gate at `1f40014` was mine, and it was an incoherent pair:
+
+**1. A 1-SE informativeness bar coupled to a ZERO-reversal rule.** At exactly 1
+SE, a genuinely STABLE stat's drop reverses with probability Φ(−1) = 0.1587. On
+four informative drops:
+
+```
+P(>= 1 reversal | perfectly stable) = 1 - 0.8413^4 = 0.50
+```
+
+**The rule failed stable stats half the time by construction.** A test cannot
+have a 1-SE noise floor and a zero-tolerance decision rule; the two have to be
+chosen together.
+
+**2. A pooled n\*.** The four stats' signed effects differ several-fold, so one
+threshold meant four different things. Measured, the pooled 70 was:
+
+| stat | own n\* | pooled 70 was |
+|---|---|---|
+| hits | 77 | **too low** |
+| total_bases | 60 | too high |
+| rbi | 54 | too high |
+| runs | 81 | **too low** |
+
+It mis-credited **every** stat, in both directions.
+
+Neither defect touched the counter or `p_win`. Both touched only which
+calibrations were judged stable.
+
+---
+
+## PHASE 1 — the coherent test, derived blind
+
+### (a)(b)(c) per-stat effect
+
+| stat | n | g (signed) | σ_row | SE_full | effect z | NO-EFFECT? |
+|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
+| hits | 1,140 | −0.01288 | 0.11251 | 0.00333 | 3.87 | no |
+| total_bases | 1,050 | −0.01380 | 0.10680 | 0.00330 | 4.19 | no |
+| rbi | 630 | −0.00884 | 0.06459 | 0.00257 | 3.44 | no |
+| runs | 597 | −0.00902 | 0.08080 | 0.00331 | 2.73 | no |
+
+All four have a real effect at full n. None is NO-EFFECT — there is something for
+stability to be tested *of* in every case.
+
+### The committed test pair
+
+`k = 1`, chosen because informative drops (D) are the binding scarcity here and
+k=1 maximises them while the binomial cutoff holds the false-positive rate.
+
+| stat | n\*=k²(σ/\|g\|)² | informative drops D | cutoff | FP | **power at τ=\|g\|** |
+|---|---|---|---|---|---|
+| hits | 77 | 5 | 2 | 0.031 | **0.093** |
+| total_bases | 60 | 5 | 2 | 0.031 | **0.093** |
+| rbi | 54 | 4 | 2 | 0.014 | **0.045** |
+| runs | 81 | 3 | 2 | 0.004 | **0.014** |
+
+Per-drop noise probability under stability Φ(−1) = 0.1587. FAIL iff reversals > cutoff.
+
+### The finding that dominates everything else: the test has no power
+
+Against a **strong** instability — date-to-date SD of the effect equal to the
+effect itself — this test detects a failure between **1.4% and 9.3%** of the
+time. Across every k examined (1.0 → 2.0), the best any stat reaches is 0.337,
+and reaching even that costs all but two informative drops.
+
+**A gate that cannot fail cannot pass.** `LODO_POWER_FLOOR = 0.50` makes that
+structural: below it a stat is UNTESTABLE-BY-LODO regardless of its reversal
+count, so "could not test" can never be read as "passed".
+
+Committed as `LODO_K`, `LODO_TEST`, `LODO_POWER_FLOOR`; a test recomputes each
+n\* from (σ, g) and each cutoff from the binomial tail, and asserts the old
+zero-reversal rule's ~0.50 false-fail rate. The stale pooled constant is nulled
+so nothing can read it.
+
+---
+
+## PHASE 2/3 — cold re-read at each stat's own n\*
+
+| stat | own n\* | informative | reversals | cutoff | power | verdict |
+|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
+| hits | 77 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0.093 | **UNTESTABLE** |
+| total_bases | 60 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0.093 | **UNTESTABLE** |
+| rbi | 54 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0.045 | **UNTESTABLE** |
+| runs | 81 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0.014 | **UNTESTABLE** |
+
+**Setting the power floor aside entirely, not one stat exceeds its cutoff.**
+
+---
+
+## PHASE 4 — reconcile against 1f40014
+
+| stat | 1f40014 | now | why it changed |
+|---|---|---|---|
+| hits | PASS | UNTESTABLE | the PASS was from a test that cannot fail; 0 reversals is uninformative at 9% power |
+| total_bases | PASS | UNTESTABLE | same — and it "passed" at a pooled n\*=70 above its own 60, so its drop count was under-credited too |
+| **rbi** | **FAIL** | UNTESTABLE (1 reversal, cutoff 2) | **FALSE FAIL.** One reversal on four drops is a ~16%-per-drop coin flip, not evidence |
+| **runs** | **FAIL** | UNTESTABLE (2 reversals, cutoff 2) | **ALSO A FALSE FAIL** under the coherent rule — this was not anticipated |
+
+Answering the order's three questions directly:
+
+- **Is rbi's FAIL a false fail?** Yes. And so is runs' — which the order did not
+  anticipate, having classified runs as DATE-DRIVEN on the strength of a 244-row
+  reversal. Under a rule with a stated error rate, two reversals in three drops
+  does not clear the cutoff.
+- **Was TB's PASS real?** No. It was vacuous: the test could not have failed it.
+- **Does hits still pass at its own smaller n\*?** Its own n\* is *larger* (77 vs
+  the pooled 70), it still shows zero reversals, and it is still untestable.
+
+---
+
+## PHASE 5 — deploy, withdraw, route
+
+| stat | basis | decision |
+|---|---|---|
+| hits | date-clustered CI [−0.0139, −0.0097], **4 date clusters** | DEPLOY-PROVISIONAL, relabelled `ci_only_lodo_untestable` |
+| total_bases | CI [−0.0061, −0.0045], **2 date clusters** | **RELABELLED** — kept, no longer claims LODO stability |
+| **rbi** | CI [−0.0092, −0.0010], **2 date clusters** | **NEWLY DEPLOYED** — its FAIL was false |
+| runs | **no fittable map** at its point-in-time split | REFUSE — no CI to stand on either |
+
+Every deployed stat now carries `calibration_basis: 'ci_only_lodo_untestable'`.
+**Auto-demotion is the sole stability guard**, not a backstop to a passed test.
+
+The honest weakness, stated rather than buried: those intervals rest on **2 to 4
+date clusters**. That is thin support, and it is now the *only* support.
+
+**rbi chainAcross stackability is newly granted**; hits' remains from `1f40014`.
+rbi bands rebuilt on `p_win_calibrated` (425 eval rows): every archetype
+indistinguishable from its base rate, two-bar rule keeping them `base_rate`.
+
+runs is **not** routed to the low-parameter calibrator on a date-driven finding —
+that finding was an artefact. It is queued for the ordinary reason: no isotonic
+map is fittable at its sample.
+
+---
+
+## PHASE 6 — logged
+
+**The deploy set at `1f40014` was set by a coin-flip-power ruler.** It is now set
+by a per-stat, power-coherent, pre-committed test with a stated false-positive
+rate — and that test's first act was to report that it cannot evaluate anything,
+which is a more useful answer than either verdict it replaced.
+
+**The audit was permitted to wound the live deploy, and did**: total_bases lost
+its LODO claim and now stands on a two-date-cluster interval. That it could is
+the integrity property.
+
+**Standing question unchanged.** Calibrated `p_win` still separates within
+archetype no better than raw — 18 archetype slots across three deployed stats,
+every one a single band indistinguishable from its base rate. Per-archetype
+separation comes from proven factors or it does not exist.
+
+---
+
+## Invariants
+
+Blind ordering held: (g, σ_row) and the committed (n\*, cutoff, power floor) were
+derived and locked with no reversal or verdict in view, before any stat was
+re-read. `p_win` never mutated. No Bonferroni slot consumed. Counter and frozen
+clusters verified file-by-file.

specs/lodo-provisional-calibration.md

@@ -0,0 +1,184 @@
+# LODO-gated provisional calibration — total_bases deploys, three stats refuse
+
+## PHASE 0 — Record correction
+
+**The ≥40 date-cluster deploy floor applied to CALIBRATION was the wrong
+instrument, and I applied it without challenging the binding.**
+
+It is `factorGate`'s cluster-robust interval floor, built for a factor making a
+CAUSAL claim, where the risk is a false positive dressed as mechanism. A
+calibration layer is different in kind:
+
+- it makes **no causal claim** — it is a monotone shrink toward observed
+- its failure mode is **bounded**: it can only over- or under-shrink
+- it consumes **no Bonferroni slot**
+
+Its real risk is that the correction is **date-driven**, and leave-one-date-out
+tests that directly. The replacement bar is **stricter on stability**, not looser
+on standard: LODO fails a stat if removing any single day reverses the
+improvement, which a cluster count cannot detect at all.
+
+The prior order's date premise was also wrong (05-01→08-04, "~90 dates"); the
+snapshots span 07-19→08-06 = 19 dates. That was corrected in the settlement
+session. The mis-bound instrument is mine.
+
+**The ≥40 floor is retained, correctly scoped as the PROMOTION bar** — the point
+at which a stat leaves provisional status.
+
+---
+
+## PHASE 1 — Both guards codified (11 tests)
+
+`src/services/model/calibrationGuards.js`
+
+**GUARD 1 — the both-sides tell.** Picked-side dedup is now mandatory
+preprocessing, asserted. The guard fires on the CONJUNCTION of both sides being
+present AND mean p_win pinned near 0.5 — either alone is unremarkable, and
+flagging a genuinely balanced one-sided book would be a false alarm.
+
+Demonstrated on live data in this run:
+
+```
+raw population    violated=true   mean_p 0.4962   both_sides_share 0.9763
+after dedup       violated=false  mean_p 0.6694
+```
+
+**GUARD 2 — a null that scores itself.** `safeBrier` refuses when any prediction
+is null; `applyOrRefuse` drops unmappable rows rather than passing nulls
+downstream. A test demonstrates the trap explicitly — `(null−1)² === 1` and
+`(null−0)² === 0`, so a Brier over nulls silently equals the win rate.
+
+---
+
+## PHASE 2 — LODO table
+
+Refit dropping each date; measure held-out Brier delta and the sign of the >0.9
+favourite bias. Drops with fewer than 20 held rows are marked UNINFORMATIVE
+rather than counted either way.
+
+**A note on what LODO is:** refitting on all-but-one date uses dates that follow
+the held-out one, so this is a STABILITY test, not a point-in-time backtest. The
+point-in-time result is separate and already established. Both are required.
+
+| stat | n | dates | informative drops | reversals | sign flips | LODO |
+|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
+| hits | 1,140 | 17 | 7 | **2** (07-22 n=20, 07-26 n=25) | 0 | **FAIL** |
+| **total_bases** | 1,050 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 0 | **PASS** |
+| rbi | 630 | 5 | 5 | **1** (08-01 n=99) | 0 | **FAIL** |
+| runs | 597 | 5 | 5 | **2** (08-01 n=86, 08-05 n=244) | 0 | **FAIL** |
+
+### Threshold sensitivity — reported because the verdict moves
+
+| min held rows | hits | total_bases | rbi | runs |
+|---|---|---|---|---|
+| **20** (applied) | FAIL | **PASS** | FAIL | FAIL |
+| 30 | PASS | **PASS** | FAIL | FAIL |
+| 50 / 75 | PASS | **PASS** | FAIL | FAIL |
+| 100 | PASS | **PASS** | PASS | FAIL |
+
+- **total_bases passes at every threshold** — the only unambiguous result.
+- **runs fails at every threshold**, reversing on a 244-row date.
+- **hits' failure is threshold-fragile**: it fails only when 20- and 25-row dates
+  are admitted, and those are the two smallest informative drops in the set.
+
+I chose `MIN_HELD_ROWS = 20` before seeing which stats passed, and did not move
+it afterwards to preserve a deploy. The honest caveat: a per-date Brier delta on
+20 rows has a standard error several times the effect being tested, so the LODO
+instrument is underpowered per-drop at this sample size. That argues for
+pre-registering a higher threshold — a Roundtable decision, not one to make while
+holding the results.
+
+---
+
+## PHASE 3 — Deploy decisions
+
+| stat | LODO | point-in-time CI | decision |
+|---|---|---|---|
+| **total_bases** | PASS | [−0.0061, −0.0045] | **DEPLOY-PROVISIONAL** |
+| hits | FAIL | [−0.0139, −0.0097] | REFUSE — improvement reverses on 07-22 / 07-26 |
+| rbi | FAIL | [−0.0092, −0.0010] | REFUSE — improvement reverses on 08-01 |
+| runs | FAIL | no fittable map at the point-in-time split | REFUSE — honest null |
+
+Certified band for total_bases: **[0.6–0.8]**. Outside it → refuse, fall to base
+rate.
+
+### hits was being served calibrated, and is not any more
+
+`snapshotService` hardcoded hits calibration since S91. hits fails LODO, so it
+has been removed from the deployed set. **A stat that cannot survive dropping one
+day was never calibrated — it was fitted to that day.** The consequence is real:
+hits props become unstackable again for `chain.chainAcross`. That is the honest
+result of measuring it, not a regression to route around, and it errs toward
+withdrawing a claim rather than preserving one on a fragile verdict.
+
+Deployment is now driven by `CALIBRATION_DEPLOYED` (frozen, tested), not a
+hardcoded stat name.
+
+---
+
+## PHASE 4 — Auto-demotion (14 tests)
+
+`src/services/model/calibrationRegistry.js`
+
+- **Deploy needs BOTH gates** — LODO pass AND a point-in-time CI excluding zero.
+  Neither is waivable.
+- **`reverify` demotes on the first breach**: the CI ceasing to exclude zero, or
+  the favourite over-prediction flipping sign (which would mean the correction is
+  now pushing the wrong way). The breaking date is logged.
+- **Promotion to non-provisional** requires the original ≥40 date-cluster bar,
+  with the interval still holding.
+
+A provisional deploy that cannot be taken away is just a deploy; `reverify` is
+what makes the label mean something.
+
+---
+
+## PHASE 5 — Bands rebuilt on p_win_calibrated (total_bases only)
+
+625 eval rows on calibrated values. **The two-bar rule still bites**: TB is now
+CALIBRATED but no factor is PROVEN for it (barrel, exit velo and
+hard-contact-allowed were all THEATER), so bands remain a base-rate read — now an
+honestly-numbered one.
+
+| archetype | n | base rate | bands | separation |
+|---|---|---|---|---|
+| UNLABELLED | 275 | 0.6255 | 1 | indistinguishable from base rate |
+| BOMBER | 200 | 0.6100 | 1 | indistinguishable |
+| GHOST | 87 | 0.5747 | 1 | indistinguishable |
+| DRIVER | 24 | 0.7917 | 1 (PROVISIONAL) | indistinguishable |
+| BRUSH | 19 | 0.4737 | 1 (PROVISIONAL) | indistinguishable |
+| MIRROR | 6 | — | REFUSED | insufficient outcomes |
+
+Calibration compressed the served range to 0.4286–1.0. Every archetype still
+collapses to a single band — calibrated p_win does not separate within archetype
+any better than raw p_win did. Refused stats keep base-rate bands on raw p_win.
+
+---
+
+## PHASE 6 — Logged, not acted on
+
+**The dead gradient is buried.** Over-prediction ordering on the fuller settled
+set is **hits ≈ TB > runs > RBI**, not TB > RBI > runs. The skill-driven-gradient
+mechanism did not survive — **RBI has the SMALLEST bias** (+0.0164). Descriptive
+only; no mechanism claimed.
+
+**Refusal coverage.** Refused props are predictable-but-input-less rather than
+genuinely uncertain (3.20 vs 3.39 AB rules out playing time). The refused set is
+a MAP OF MISSING INPUTS and feeds the input-coverage roadmap. Not this order.
+
+**Queued candidate:** a low-parameter calibrator (Platt / beta) fits a
+favourite-longshot shape on far fewer points than isotonic needs, which is
+exactly the constraint that refused runs. It is a NEW estimator requiring its own
+out-of-sample validation. Not built here.
+
+**Programme-level finding:** calibration beats every factor tried on TB / RBI /
+runs, and the defect is systematic over-prediction **concentrated in favourites**
+(+0.21 to +0.28 above p_win 0.9 on all four stats) rather than a uniform shift.
+
+---
+
+## Invariants
+
+`p_win` never mutated — calibration rides as `p_win_calibrated` with
+`calibration_status: 'provisional'`. No Bonferroni slot consumed; testLedger
+factor count untouched. Counter and frozen clusters byte-identical.

specs/lodo-threshold-power-derivation.md

@@ -0,0 +1,146 @@
+# The LODO threshold, derived from power — hits restored, rbi/runs routed
+
+## PHASE 0 — the threshold, derived blind
+
+**Estimand:** does dropping date D reverse the SIGN of the out-of-sample Brier
+improvement on D's held-out rows? A reversal is informative only if that date's
+Brier delta is distinguishable from zero at its row count.
+
+The per-row Brier difference is `d_i = (pc_i − y_i)² − (p_i − y_i)²`, so a date's
+delta is `mean(d)` and `SE(n) = SD(d)/√n`. The smallest n at which a typical
+effect clears one standard error is `n* = (SD(d)/|effect|)²`.
+
+Pooled across all four stats — deliberately, so no single stat's verdict could
+shape the threshold that decides it:
+
+```
+pooled rows                3,417
+SD(per-row Brier diff)     0.09816
+|pooled effect|            0.01175
+n* = (0.09816 / 0.01175)^2 = 69.8  ->  70
+```
+
+### SE-vs-n
+
+| n | SE | effect / SE | informative |
+|---|---|---|---|
+| 10 | 0.0310 | 0.38 | no |
+| **20** (previously chosen by hand) | 0.0220 | **0.54** | **no** |
+| 25 | 0.0196 | 0.60 | no |
+| 30 | 0.0179 | 0.66 | no |
+| 50 | 0.0139 | 0.85 | no |
+| **70 (n\*)** | 0.0117 | **1.00** | **yes** |
+| 100 | 0.0098 | 1.20 | yes |
+| 244 | 0.0063 | 1.87 | yes |
+
+The hand-chosen 20 sat at 0.54 SE — a coin flip. That is the defect this
+derivation removes, and it is why the previous verdict moved with the number.
+
+**Committed as `calibrationRegistry.LODO_MIN_HELD_ROWS = 70`** with
+`LODO_THRESHOLD_BASIS` recording the inputs. A test recomputes `(SD/effect)²` and
+asserts it equals the constant, so the value cannot drift from the basis that
+justifies it, and cannot be silently tuned. The derivation script prints no stat
+verdict, no date and no reversal; it ran and the constant was committed before
+any stat was re-read.
+
+---
+
+## PHASE 1 — LODO at n\*, applied cold
+
+| stat | n | dates | informative drops | reversals | LODO |
+|---|---|---|---|---|---|
+| **hits** | 1,140 | 17 | 5 | **0** | **PASS** |
+| **total_bases** | 1,050 | 7 | 4 | **0** | **PASS** |
+| rbi | 630 | 5 | 4 | 1 — 2026-08-01 (**n=99**) | **FAIL** |
+| runs | 597 | 5 | 3 | 2 — 2026-08-01 (**n=86**), 2026-08-05 (**n=244**) | **FAIL** |
+
+hits' held-out deltas at n\*: −0.0041 / −0.0080 / −0.0192 / −0.0140 / −0.0139
+across 123–272 row dates. Every drop holds, and the favourite over-prediction
+holds sign on every drop where it is testable (+0.52 / +0.318 / +0.272).
+
+**This is the instrument finally being powered, not vindication of a prediction.**
+The withdrawal at `6ae11f1` was correct on the instrument available then, which
+admitted 20- and 25-row dates as evidence. Nothing about hits changed; what
+changed is that the threshold is now derived rather than chosen.
+
+---
+
+## PHASE 2 — Failure classification
+
+Both failures are **DATE-DRIVEN**, not underpowered-per-drop:
+
+| stat | deciding date | held n | vs n\*=70 | classification |
+|---|---|---|---|---|
+| rbi | 2026-08-01 | 99 | **above** | DATE-DRIVEN |
+| runs | 2026-08-01 | 86 | **above** | DATE-DRIVEN |
+| runs | 2026-08-05 | 244 | **far above** | DATE-DRIVEN |
+
+Every reversal sits comfortably above the powered threshold, so **no threshold
+choice and no further date accrual rescues either stat.** Isotonic is fitting
+day-structure on both.
+
+**Routed to the low-parameter calibrator queue** (Platt / beta), which fits a
+favourite-longshot shape on far fewer free parameters and is therefore much
+harder to bend to one day. Not built here — it is a new estimator and needs its
+own out-of-sample validation.
+
+---
+
+## PHASE 3 — Deploy and bands
+
+| stat | status | certified band |
+|---|---|---|
+| **hits** | **DEPLOY-PROVISIONAL (restored)** | [0.5–0.7] |
+| **total_bases** | DEPLOY-PROVISIONAL (unchanged from 6ae11f1) | [0.6–0.8] |
+| rbi | REFUSE — date-driven | — |
+| runs | REFUSE — date-driven | — |
+
+`CALIBRATION_DEPLOYED` is now `['hits', 'total_bases']`, frozen and tested. Both
+carry `calibration_status: 'provisional'` with auto-demotion armed; promotion bar
+remains the original ≥40 date-clusters.
+
+**hits stackability is RESTORED.** It was withdrawn at `6ae11f1`, which removed
+hits props from `chain.chainAcross`. They are stackable again — and the record
+shows it came back **through the powered gate, not by fiat**. A test asserts the
+restoration alongside the threshold's provenance.
+
+### hits bands on p_win_calibrated (765 eval rows)
+
+| archetype | n | base rate | bands | lift bands |
+|---|---|---|---|---|
+| UNLABELLED | 284 | 0.5211 | 1 | 0 |
+| BOMBER | 271 | 0.5351 | 1 | 0 |
+| GHOST | 110 | 0.6182 | 1 | 0 |
+| BRUSH | 35 | 0.5714 | 1 | 0 |
+| DRIVER | 34 | 0.6765 | 1 | 0 |
+| CATALYST | 21 | 0.5238 | 1 | 0 |
+| MIRROR | 10 | — | REFUSED | — |
+
+Two-bar rule still bites: hits is CALIBRATED but its only proven factor
+(`defense_by_direction`) is pooled, not per-archetype, so the bands remain a
+base-rate read — now honestly numbered.
+
+---
+
+## PHASE 4 — Logged
+
+**The deploy set is now determined by a power-derived, pre-committed, tested
+constant rather than an operator-chosen number.** That property matters more than
+either verdict: at `6ae11f1` the rule moved the live path *against* the operator,
+withdrawing a stat that was already serving. It has now moved it back, on the
+same evidence, because the instrument changed. Both directions are the rule
+working. Keep it.
+
+**Standing question for the chain model:** calibrated `p_win` separates within
+archetype no better than raw — every archetype collapses to a single band on both
+deployed stats (TB and now hits), across 13 archetype slots. Per-archetype grade
+separation is **not** going to come from calibration. It comes from proven
+per-archetype factors or it does not exist. Descriptive only; no action here.
+
+---
+
+## Invariants
+
+`p_win` never mutated — calibration rides as `p_win_calibrated`. No Bonferroni
+slot consumed. Counter and frozen clusters byte-identical. Threshold fixed from
+power before any stat was re-read; no post-hoc movement, enforced by test.

specs/per-archetype-grade-bands.md

@@ -0,0 +1,126 @@
+# Per-archetype grade bands — built, gated, and not yet shippable
+
+**The rescale does not ship, for two independent reasons — and the second one is
+new and more interesting than the first.**
+
+---
+
+## 1. The premise, checked against the ledger
+
+`scripts/proven-status.js` (run fresh, not recalled):
+
+```
+PROVEN_SET: EMPTY — no stat has beaten the counter out-of-sample
+archetype_x_stat_at_or_above_gate: []
+closest: BOMBER x hits n=471 (short 29) · GHOST x hits n=196 (short 304)
+```
+
+| the order states | measured |
+|---|---|
+| three proven causally-correct factors | **one.** `pitcher_contact_profile` CI upper bound is exactly `0.0000` (not proven); `platoon_severity` passes but is held on 4.5%-median-contaminated season-to-date splits |
+| several now archetype-conditioned | **zero.** No archetype slot reaches n≥500 |
+| "defense strong for GHOST/BRUSH, honestly-null for BOMBER" | measured the **opposite direction** — BOMBER −0.0036, GHOST −0.0024, both noise-dominated (specs/per-archetype-re-audit.md) |
+
+Pooled proof does not qualify a slot. `PROVEN_BY_ARCHETYPE` is `{}` and the band
+builder reads it directly.
+
+---
+
+## 2. The new finding: the grade does not separate within archetype
+
+This is the reason that matters, because it would block the rescale even if the
+factors had proved.
+
+Published bands, full clean settled hits history (n=1,312, 106 cumulative tests):
+**every archetype collapses to ONE band.** Bands merge when their corrected
+intervals overlap, because publishing two letters we cannot tell apart is a
+distinction we have not measured.
+
+Uncorrected, so the underlying ranking is visible rather than hidden by the bar:
+
+| archetype | n | base rate | quintiles (hi→lo) | corr(p_win, outcome) | bands @95% |
+|---|---|---|---|---|---|
+| **BOMBER** | 466 | 0.588 | 0.75 · 0.62 · 0.60 · 0.48 · 0.48 | **+0.207** | 2 — A 0.660 (n=279) vs B 0.481 (n=187), A shows lift |
+| UNLABELLED | 490 | 0.539 | 0.66 · 0.53 · 0.58 · 0.51 · 0.41 | +0.155 | 2, no lift |
+| **GHOST** | 192 | 0.578 | 0.47 · 0.63 · 0.74 · 0.58 · 0.45 | **−0.007** | 1 |
+| BRUSH | 80 | 0.537 | 0.81 · 0.63 · 0.44 · 0.50 · 0.31 | +0.350 | 1 |
+
+### This inverts the order's design
+
+The order assigns **contact types the factor-rich treatment** and **power types
+the honest base-rate treatment**, on the reasoning that single-game hits are
+variance for a power profile.
+
+Measured, it is the other way round. **BOMBER is the one archetype where the
+model ranks** (+0.207, monotone across quintiles, and it separates into a genuine
+A/B at 95%). **GHOST is where it is flat** — corr −0.007, and its quintiles are
+non-monotone: the model's most confident GHOST reads hit 47% while its middle
+reads hit 74%.
+
+That ordering is mechanically sensible in hindsight. A power hitter's chance of a
+hit tracks whether he can damage the arm he is facing, which the counter's
+frequency question partly captures. A contact hitter's hits depend on batted
+balls finding holes, which is much closer to luck — the same reason the pooled
+hits negative closed (S83) and the reason `defense_by_direction` is the factor
+that survives.
+
+**Had the rescale shipped as specified, it would have given the factor-rich
+treatment to the archetype the model reads worst, and left base-rate on the one
+it reads best.**
+
+### BOMBER still cannot publish two letters
+
+BOMBER's A/B split is real at 95% but does not survive the cumulative correction
+at 106 tests — the intervals merge. So even the best archetype gets one honest
+band today. Lowering the correction to expose it would be exactly the "curve to
+make more A's" the order forbids.
+
+---
+
+## 3. What was built
+
+`src/services/model/gradeBands.js` — per-archetype bands from realized outcomes:
+
+- **Lift, not raw rate.** A band is credited only when its interval clears *that
+  archetype's own* base rate. Locked by test: the same 62% realized rate is lift
+  for a 45%-base profile and a deficit for a 68%-base one.
+- **The two-bar rule is structural.** `factor_informed` requires `proven` AND
+  `calibrated` for that archetype. Tests assert that proven-alone, calibrated-
+  alone, and neither all return `basis: 'base_rate'` with the reason stated —
+  so with nothing proven, which is today, no factor-informed band can be produced
+  at all. Same shape as `featureRegistry.liveFeatures()`: the honest state is the
+  default and the richer claim has to be earned past a gate.
+- **Indistinguishable neighbours merge** rather than becoming different letters.
+- **Thin bands are PROVISIONAL, not dropped** — "still counting" and "nothing
+  here" are different claims.
+- **Wilson intervals**, widened by the cumulative correction. Wilson because
+  these bands are small and rates sit near the edges, where a normal
+  approximation runs past 0 and 1 and implies impossible rates.
+
+`reasoning()` is built and tested: a base-rate band says *"base-rate read … no
+matchup factor is proven for this profile yet"*, and a factor-informed band with
+no named proven factors returns **nothing** rather than inventing a why.
+
+It is **not wired to the card**, deliberately. There is no per-archetype band
+being served, so attaching per-archetype copy now would ship product language for
+a rescale that does not exist.
+
+### One piece of the order I did not build
+
+The specified power-type reasoning — *"the matchup edge is in total_bases"* — is
+**not supported by any measurement**. `proven-status.js` records total_bases as
+INCONCLUSIVE (delta +0.0038, CI [−0.068, +0.075]). Wiring that sentence would
+assert an edge we have measured as indistinguishable from zero, which is the
+fabricated-reason failure the rest of this module exists to prevent.
+
+---
+
+## 4. What would unblock the rescale
+
+1. **BOMBER × hits is 29 rows short** of the gate — days away, and it is the
+   archetype the model actually reads. That is the first slot to test, not GHOST.
+2. **Point-in-time platoon splits** would convert two held passes into real ones.
+3. **Separation must survive the correction**, not just 95%. More sample tightens
+   the intervals; nothing else legitimately does.
+
+Counter and frozen clusters untouched. No letter was moved.

specs/per-archetype-re-audit.md

@@ -0,0 +1,134 @@
+# Per-archetype re-audit — and the replication unit that decided it
+
+**The premise this order opened with does not hold, and the query it blames was
+never windowed.** `prove-hit-factors.js` selects on sport / stat / outcome only —
+there is no date filter anywhere in it, and it pages the full table. Nothing was
+being clipped.
+
+| claimed | measured |
+|---|---|
+| full clean history 2,715 rows | **1,266** |
+| platoon "tripled to 1,208 and PROVED" | 1,056 rows; passes the gate, **not promoted** |
+| three proven pooled factors | **one** — see below |
+
+`platoon` and `platoon_severity` were explicitly held last session, not promoted:
+they ride season-to-date splits containing the games they predict (4.5% median
+contamination, 12.4% p90) and passed with an upper bound of −0.0001. That still
+stands. `pitcher_contact_profile` was **demoted** last session. So the proven set
+going in was one factor, not three.
+
+---
+
+## STEP 1 — Full-history sample audit per slot
+
+Run against full clean settled history, deduped, non-quarantined:
+
+| factor | ALL | BOMBER | GHOST | BRUSH | DRIVER | CATALYST |
+|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
+| pitcher_contact_profile | 1,059 | 408 | 173 | 64 | 43 | 16 |
+| platoon | 1,056 | 408 | 173 | 64 | 43 | 16 |
+| defense | 912 | 357 | 150 | 57 | 37 | 12 |
+| defense_by_direction | 782 | 319 | 117 | 49 | 32 | 12 |
+| platoon_severity | 700 | 343 | 121 | 24 | 38 | 16 |
+| park_hits | 619 | 239 | 96 | 36 | 22 | 9 |
+
+**No archetype slot reaches n≥500 on full history.** The best is BOMBER at 408,
+and BOMBER is by far the most common archetype on the board. These are
+**CONFIRMED genuinely short — not windowed-query artifacts.**
+
+---
+
+## STEP 2 — The replication unit, which changed every verdict
+
+Errors are correlated within a game (shared starter, park, weather, game state),
+so the interval must be clustered. But clustering on the *game* is still wrong
+for some factors, and the audit exposed it: `park_hits` initially "PROVED" at 619
+rows across 45 games — yet those 45 games only ever visited **14 distinct park
+values**. A park effect is replicated across parks. Unmodelled park heterogeneity
+is confounded with the very thing being estimated.
+
+So each factor is now clustered on the **coarser of the game and the entity its
+treatment rides on**:
+
+| factor | rows | games | treatment entities | clustered on | k | Brier Δ | CI (corrected, 99 tests) | verdict |
+|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
+| `defense_by_direction` | 782 | 84 | **442** hitter×team | game | 84 | −0.0031 | [−0.0054, −0.0012] | **PROVES** |
+| `platoon_severity` | 700 | 85 | 145 hitters | game | 85 | −0.0038 | [−0.0070, −0.0007] | PROVES\* |
+| `platoon` | 1,056 | 85 | 228 hitters | game | 85 | −0.0033 | [−0.0061, −0.0006] | PROVES\* |
+| `pitcher_contact_profile` | 1,059 | 85 | 130 pitchers | game | 85 | −0.0034 | [−0.0067, **0.0000**] | NOT_PROVEN |
+| `defense` | 912 | 84 | **26** teams | entity | 26 | −0.0038 | [−0.0075, −0.0006] | PENDING — k<40 |
+| `park_hits` | 619 | 45 | **14** park values | entity | 14 | −0.0037 | [−0.0093, **+0.0029**] | PENDING — k<40 |
+
+\* held, not promoted — contaminated inputs, unchanged from last session.
+
+### This is Kev's causal-correctness thesis confirmed from a new direction
+
+The causally-correct atom is not merely more accurate — **it is the only one that
+is measurable at all.** `defense_by_direction` has **442** units of replication
+because spray direction varies per hitter; crude team `defense` has **26**,
+because there are 26 teams. The crude factor cannot be validated no matter how
+long the ledger runs, and its apparently-tight interval was pseudo-replication
+across teams that does not exist.
+
+`park_hits` losing its pass is the same finding as last session's park-dimensions
+result, arrived at independently: **venue- and team-borne factors cap at ~30
+units, permanently.**
+
+### Gate change: two floors, not one transplanted bar
+
+Last session I applied the 500 bar to clusters. That was wrong in a way worth
+naming: it refused a factor with 1,059 rows over 85 games — ample observations
+*and* ample clusters — while answering neither question. The floors are now
+separate, because they answer different things:
+
+- **rows ≥ 500** — is the point estimate stable?
+- **clusters ≥ 40** — can the interval around it be believed?
+
+40 is the conventional floor below which cluster-robust inference under-covers.
+This is not a lowered bar: `park_hits` (14) and `defense` (26) are still refused,
+and park geometry is still permanently unvalidatable.
+
+---
+
+## STEP 3 — What gets wired
+
+**Nothing new.** No archetype slot earns a wire, and none is grandfathered in
+from pooled proof.
+
+- `defense_by_direction` — **PROVES pooled, stays POOLED-ONLY.** Its BOMBER
+  (n=319) and GHOST (n=117) slots are short, so no per-archetype reasoning is
+  wired. The card must not say "GHOST: defence matchup strong" — we have not
+  earned that sentence.
+- `platoon`, `platoon_severity` — pass the gate, **held** pending point-in-time
+  splits.
+- `pitcher_contact_profile`, `defense`, `park_hits` — honest null / confirmed
+  short.
+
+### The predicted fingerprint did NOT appear
+
+The order expected `defense_by_direction` strong for GHOST and ~zero for BOMBER.
+Measured point estimates run the other way — BOMBER −0.0036, GHOST −0.0024 — and
+at n=319/117 both are noise-dominated. **Recorded so it is not claimed later.**
+This is not evidence against the theory; it is evidence we cannot see it yet.
+
+---
+
+## STEP 4 — Rescale readiness: NOT READY
+
+One proven factor, worth −0.0031 Brier, clustered-honest. Two more held behind a
+contaminated input. The counter still supplies essentially all of the model's
+resolution (S78 ablation).
+
+Rescaling the grade distribution on that would be **relabelling** — the same
+error as minting A's by moving thresholds, which is a permanent founder ruling.
+The distribution is not factor-rich enough.
+
+**What would change the answer**, in order of cost:
+
+1. **Point-in-time platoon splits** — would convert two held passes into real
+   ones. Cheapest, no waiting; needs per-game split reconstruction.
+2. **More games** — every archetype slot is short, and slots grow with games, not
+   rows. BOMBER needs ~92 more rows to reach 500.
+3. **A factor with high replication** — the lesson of this audit is that new
+   factors should be chosen for *causal correctness first*, which also buys
+   measurability. Anything venue- or team-borne is dead on arrival.

specs/rbi-resolution-anomaly.md

@@ -0,0 +1,141 @@
+# The rbi anomaly, decomposed — the model is out-resolved by a batting-order integer
+
+## PHASE 0 — the 14.51% is REAL
+
+The figure came from the harness that produced a false null three times tonight,
+so it was re-derived with a paged pull **asserted against an exact count**:
+
+| stat | exact rows | paged rows | scorable | resolution | share |
+|---|---|---|---|---|---|
+| rbi | 7,930 | 7,930 ✓ | 630 | **0.03268** | **14.51%** |
+| hits | 11,690 | 11,690 ✓ | 1,140 | 0.00252 | 1.03% |
+| total_bases | 12,086 | 12,086 ✓ | 1,050 | 0.00442 | 1.82% |
+| runs | 6,440 | 6,440 ✓ | 597 | 0.00130 | 0.56% |
+
+**Reproduces exactly.** rbi deciles are monotone through the middle (0.552→0.577,
+0.646→0.691, 0.746→0.784) with a genuinely low bin at 0.13→0.122, and 20 raw
+rows are printed in the artifact for hand audit.
+
+---
+
+## The caveat that governs every number below
+
+The naive forecasts are **leave-one-out on the evaluation window itself** — they
+see that player's performance in the very rows being scored, while the model is
+strictly point-in-time. They are therefore **upper bounds on available
+resolution, not fair competitors.** Every comparison is read that way.
+
+---
+
+## PHASE 1 — the three-way split
+
+| stat | MODEL | (a) player base rate | (b) lineup slot | (c) within-stratum |
+|---|---|---|---|---|
+| **rbi** | **0.03268** | 0.01167 | **0.03608** | 0.01908 |
+| hits | 0.00252 | **0.00446** | 0.00100 | 0.00473 |
+| total_bases | 0.00442 | **0.01331** | **0.03448** | 0.00607 |
+| runs | 0.00130 | **0.00262** | **0.01156** | 0.01170 |
+
+### Finding 1 — rbi's resolution is LINEUP ROLE, almost exactly
+
+**Batting-order slot alone resolves 0.03608 against the model's 0.03268.** A
+single integer — where he hits in the order — accounts for the entire anomaly and
+slightly more. That is real predictive signal and it is **opportunity, not
+skill**: the cleanup hitter bats with runners on, the 8-hole hitter does not.
+
+Player base rate alone gives 0.01167, so ~36% of the model's rbi resolution is
+matched by knowing only *who* is batting.
+
+Within strata of similar-base-rate players the model still resolves **0.01908** —
+58% of its total, and **higher than any other stat's entire model resolution.**
+So rbi does carry genuine within-role discrimination on top of the role effect.
+
+### Finding 2 — on three of four stats the model is beaten by "he's a .270 hitter"
+
+| stat | model | player base rate alone | |
+|---|---|---|---|
+| hits | 0.00252 | **0.00446** | base-rate-only resolves **1.8×** the model |
+| total_bases | 0.00442 | **0.01331** | **3.0×** |
+| runs | 0.00130 | **0.00262** | **2.0×** |
+| rbi | **0.03268** | 0.01167 | model wins, 2.8× |
+
+Even allowing that the naive forecast peeks at the window, a **1.8–3.0× gap is
+not explained by that advantage alone.** The served counter — a frequency over
+the line, blended with the last five games, nudged by opponent rank and home/away
+— appears to **destroy discrimination relative to the player's own rate.** The
+recency blend and the ±0.03/±0.015 nudges move predictions in ways that do not
+track outcomes.
+
+**rbi is the one stat where the model beats the naive baseline.**
+
+### Finding 3 — lineup slot out-resolves the model on THREE stats
+
+| stat | model | slot alone |
+|---|---|---|
+| total_bases | 0.00442 | **0.03448** (7.8×) |
+| runs | 0.00130 | **0.01156** (8.9×) |
+| rbi | 0.03268 | **0.03608** (1.1×) |
+| hits | 0.00252 | 0.00100 (model wins) |
+
+**Hits is the only stat where batting order carries less than the model** — which
+makes sense: a hit is a hit whether you bat first or ninth, but runs, RBI and
+total bases all scale with opportunity.
+
+---
+
+## PHASE 2 — which world
+
+**All three are partly true, in measured proportions:**
+
+- **WORLD A — rbi resolution is real and role-driven: ~90% TRUE.** Slot alone
+  (0.03608) covers the model's entire rbi resolution. It is real, it is
+  contextual rather than skill-based, and 58% survives within similar-player
+  strata as genuine discrimination.
+- **WORLD B — base-rate-spread artefact: ~36% TRUE for rbi.** Player identity
+  alone accounts for about a third. Not the main story for rbi — but for
+  **hits, TB and runs it is the whole story and then some**, since base rate
+  alone out-resolves the model on all three.
+- **WORLD C — hits is intrinsically compressed: TRUE, and the ceiling is low.**
+  Total available spread resolution for hits is 0.00446 — **1.8% of variance even
+  from a forecast that has seen the answers.** Perfect factors cannot make hits a
+  high-resolution grade.
+
+---
+
+## PHASE 3 — the roadmap-deciding log
+
+**The next arc is not "strengthen hits factors."** Hits has the lowest available
+resolution on the board (1.8% ceiling from an oracle-ish baseline) and last
+order's wiring already lifted it to 1.39% of a 1.8% ceiling. There is very little
+left there.
+
+**Named first factor order for next session: LINEUP SLOT / RISP OPPORTUNITY on
+rbi**, through the two-part gate.
+
+- The input is **already ingested and prod-verified** (`lineup_context` batting
+  order, `hitter_opportunity` RISP share, S89).
+- Its resolution is **measured, not hypothesised**: 0.03608 slot-only on rbi,
+  0.03448 on TB, 0.01156 on runs.
+- The causally-correct unit is **plate appearances with runners on**, which is
+  what RISP share measures directly — the crude version is the slot integer.
+- It must clear the two-part gate like anything else. Measured availability is
+  not a pass.
+
+**Second, and higher-value than either:** the counter is out-resolved by a player
+frequency table on three of four stats. That is not a factor problem — it is a
+defect in the champion. **Diagnosing whether the recency blend and the
+±0.03/±0.015 nudges are destroying discrimination is the biggest single lever
+this decomposition found**, and it costs nothing to test: they are three lines in
+`probabilityEstimator`.
+
+**The hits transmission win stands.** The conduit is real and permanent —
+sign-verified, 75% coverage. This order changes only *which stat* has the most
+worth flowing through it.
+
+---
+
+## Invariants
+
+Diagnostic only. No factor wired, no serving path changed, no calibration refit,
+`p_win` untouched, all frozen modules byte-identical including the hits path from
+`43f65d3`. No Bonferroni slot — this is resolution accounting, not a causal claim.

specs/reliever-chain.md

@@ -0,0 +1,141 @@
+# The reliever chain — Link 1 proves, Link 2 does not, and the premise inverts
+
+**The causal insight is right: the game is a sequence and the matchup does shift
+mid-game. The direction is backwards.** Measured on 93,663 plate appearances from
+1,238 games, the bullpen is *harder* than the starter, not softer.
+
+---
+
+## The chain, link by link
+
+### LINK 1 — starter pull timing: **PROVES**
+
+Target is batters faced, because that is what decides how many of a hitter's
+plate appearances come against the starter rather than the pen. Point-in-time:
+each start predicted only from that pitcher's starts strictly before it, shrunk
+toward the league mean by prior-start count. Baseline is the league mean — the
+naive "a starter goes about six."
+
+```
+1,706 starts · 204 pitchers · clustered on the pitcher · 107 cumulative tests
+MAE  3.2226 (baseline)  ->  2.7990 (model)   delta -0.4236
+CI [-0.6006, -0.2731] at 0.9995        VERDICT: PROVES
+```
+
+It finds the tail, which is what the chain needed: early exits (≤20 batters
+faced) occur at a **23.2%** base rate, and among model-flagged starts they occur
+at **34.0%** — lift **+10.8pp**.
+
+**Scope correction made here:** the order specifies fatigue profile × *game
+script* ("getting hit → pulled early"). Game script is not available when a prop
+is graded — whether he gets hit tonight is the thing being projected, not an
+input to it. Using it would be reading the answer. Only the fatigue/workload half
+is measured above; the in-game half is a LIVE feature, recorded as out of scope
+rather than quietly folded in.
+
+### LINK 2 — reliever identity: **NOT PROVEN**, on two independent grounds
+
+Predict which arm throws a given post-starter plate appearance. Baseline: the
+team's most-used reliever to date. Model: the arm that team has most often used
+*in that inning* to date — the cheapest expression of bullpen role.
+
+```
+39,629 post-starter plate appearances · 30 bullpens
+baseline accuracy 8.6%  ->  model accuracy 17.2%
+VERDICT: PENDING_SAMPLE — 30 independent clusters < 40
+```
+
+1. **On merit.** Doubling the baseline sounds good and is not: naming a specific
+   arm is **wrong five times out of six.**
+2. **Structurally.** Bullpen usage is a team-level process — same manager, same
+   arms, same roles all season — so the entity this prediction rides on is the
+   club, and there are 30. Row count cannot create replication that does not
+   exist. **The same permanent ceiling as park geometry (30 venues) and team
+   defence (26 teams).**
+
+### LINK 3 — shifted matchup: **NOT RUN**
+
+Per the order's own discipline, a link that does not prove does not feed the
+next. Link 3 needs the reliever's profile, and Link 2 cannot say whose profile it
+is.
+
+---
+
+## The premise, tested directly — because that chains on nothing
+
+This required no unproven link, so it was safe to measure, and it is the finding
+that matters most:
+
+| | n | hit rate per PA | ±95% |
+|---|---|---|---|
+| vs **STARTER** | 48,492 | **0.2444** | 0.0038 |
+| vs **BULLPEN** | 35,760 | **0.2373** | 0.0044 |
+| bullpen \| starter exited early | 14,672 | 0.2379 | 0.0069 |
+| bullpen \| starter went normal | 21,088 | 0.2369 | 0.0057 |
+
+**The bullpen is 0.7pp HARDER than the starter**, and the intervals barely
+overlap. The specific effect the chain was built to exploit — an early exit
+making later at-bats softer — is **+0.0010, indistinguishable from zero on 35,760
+plate appearances.** That is a well-powered null, not a sample problem.
+
+### What IS real: times through the order
+
+| | n | hit rate |
+|---|---|---|
+| TTO 1 | 21,596 | 0.2351 |
+| TTO 2 | 18,426 | **0.2515** |
+| TTO 3 | 8,278 | **0.2518** |
+
+A starter does decay as the lineup sees him again: **+1.6pp from first look to
+second.** But that advantage is **surrendered when he leaves, not extended** —
+the pen (0.2373) is harder than the starter's second and third time through
+(0.2515).
+
+The mechanism is a modern bullpen: a queue of specialists throwing max effort for
+one inning each, fresh, often handedness-matched. There is no tiring arm to
+punish.
+
+### The insight survives, inverted
+
+The sequence framing is correct and the edge is real — it just points the other
+way. **A hitter's soft spot is a starter still in the game on the third time
+through, and an early hook takes it away.** So Link 1 remains valuable, for the
+opposite reason it was built: flagging a likely early exit predicts that a hitter
+*loses* his third-time-through look (0.2518 → 0.2373, a −1.45pp shift on that
+plate appearance) — a downgrade signal, not an upgrade.
+
+That is also market-relevant in the way the order wanted, with the sign flipped:
+if a line is set on the starter's matchup, the mispricing is on hitters who will
+get an *extra* look at a starter going deep.
+
+---
+
+## Built
+
+- `src/services/model/predictionGate.js` (+ tests) — the two-part gate for a
+  CONTINUOUS prediction. `factorGate` binarises outcomes for Brier, which would
+  destroy a target like batters faced. Same discipline: movement AND out-of-sample
+  improvement, paired bootstrap, clustered, cumulative-corrected. Names THEATER
+  the same way.
+- `scripts/ingest-game-sequences.js` — per-PA batter/pitcher/hand/inning/result
+  plus boxscore exit lines, free from statsapi. 1,238 games cached.
+- `scripts/link1-pull-timing.js`, `scripts/link2-reliever-identity.js`.
+
+## Pre-registered, NOT run
+
+**Link 2′ — bullpen AGGREGATE instead of a named arm.** Naming the arm fails, but
+a PA-weighted aggregate of the pen's contact-allowed and handedness profile may
+be knowable, and the hitter×bullpen unit would have real replication where the
+bullpen alone has 30. This is recorded rather than substituted in, because
+running Link 3 on a swapped-in Link 2 is precisely the assumed-link failure the
+order forbids. Given the premise result above, its expected value is now low.
+
+## Parallel track — total_bases per-archetype (logged, not run)
+
+Sample audit only: `total_bases` settled n=948 pooled; BOMBER × TB **340**,
+short by 160 against the gate. No archetype slot is testable yet. Per the S88
+lesson, this is a *sample-readiness* note and not a verdict — and per
+`specs/per-archetype-grade-bands.md`, the grade does not yet separate within any
+archetype on hits, so a TB rescale would face the same second blocker.
+
+Counter and frozen clusters byte-identical.

specs/resolution-ceiling-and-the-duel.md

@@ -0,0 +1,156 @@
+# The resolution ceiling — calibration is complete, and it was never the lever
+
+## PHASE 0 — two honest truths, on record
+
+### 1. The swap is a BET, not an OOS win
+
+On identical held-out rows the **isotonic map scored BETTER**: hits +0.0028
+(CI [0.0013, 0.0045]), rbi +0.0042 (CI [0.0003, 0.0092]), total_bases tied.
+
+We serve the low-parameter map anyway, on the untestable prior that isotonic's
+in-window edge is daily structure shared between the fit and evaluation windows
+and will not transmit forward. At 19 dates **no instrument here can test that
+prior** — LODO has 1.4–9.3% power against it.
+
+**Named as a bet, logged, not evidence.** Phase 1 makes it falsifiable.
+
+### 2. The MIN_SLOPE catch, as a standing guard rationale
+
+`runs` fitted `a = −0.032`. A near-zero or negative slope collapses the curve
+toward *base-rate-for-everything*, which **lowers Brier** — shrinking a
+miscalibrated forecaster toward its base rate always does — while destroying all
+resolution.
+
+**A metric win that guts the product.** Any calibration layer must refuse a
+non-positive slope on principle, not on inspection. That is now `MIN_SLOPE`.
+
+---
+
+## PHASE 1 — the duel, instrumented forward
+
+Both corrections are computed on every hits/TB prop:
+`p_win_lowparam` (served) and `p_win_isotonic_shadow` (logged, never read by
+serving or by `chainAcross`). The shadow runs in its own try — it can never
+break serving.
+
+`calibrationDuel.adjudicate` encodes the rule **in code, before any forward date
+exists**, so the bar cannot drift toward whichever answer arrives:
+
+| condition | verdict | action |
+|---|---|---|
+| ≥10 forward dates AND isotonic wins, date-block CI excluding zero | **REFUTED** | revert hits/TB to isotonic, log the reversal |
+| ≥10 forward dates, isotonic does not win | **UPHELD** | keep serving low-param |
+| <10 forward dates | **PENDING** | keep serving, no verdict |
+
+A date counts as forward **only if neither map was fitted on it** — scoring
+inside a fit window would ask which map memorised better. Rows lacking that
+provenance are dropped, never assumed forward. Tests lock all of it, including
+that a decisive shadow win at 5 dates is still PENDING.
+
+**Nothing swaps now.** The season decides.
+
+---
+
+## PHASE 2 — the resolution ceiling, quantified
+
+Murphy decomposition: `Brier = reliability − resolution + uncertainty`.
+Reliability is what calibration fixes. **Resolution is discrimination, and a
+monotone map cannot create it** — it relabels bins without re-sorting the rows
+inside them.
+
+| stat | n | base | reliability | **resolution** | uncertainty | **share of variance explained** |
+|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
+| hits | 1,140 | 0.5684 | 0.01353 | **0.00252** | 0.24532 | **1.03%** |
+| total_bases | 1,050 | 0.5819 | 0.01419 | **0.00442** | 0.24329 | **1.82%** |
+| rbi | 630 | 0.6571 | 0.00654 | **0.03268** | 0.22531 | **14.51%** |
+| runs | 597 | 0.6348 | 0.00788 | **0.00130** | 0.23182 | **0.56%** |
+
+### What calibration did, exactly as theory predicts
+
+| stat | reliability | resolution |
+|---|---|---|
+| hits | 0.01353 → 0.00233 (**−0.0112**) | 0.00252 → 0.00231 (−0.0002) |
+| total_bases | 0.01419 → 0.00527 (**−0.0089**) | 0.00442 → 0.00414 (−0.0003) |
+
+**Calibration removed 83% of hits' reliability error and moved resolution by
+essentially nothing.** It did the whole of its job, and its job was never the
+one the grade product needs.
+
+**Unexpected:** `rbi` has **13× the resolution of hits** and is the one stat we
+do *not* serve corrected — it needs calibration least (reliability 0.0065) and
+discriminates most. Worth carrying into the factor arc.
+
+---
+
+## PHASE 2 — the HITS factor-transmission diagnosis
+
+**Verdict: NOT-TRANSMITTED. Not weak — absent.** This is a plumbing defect, and
+it is the highest-value finding in the order.
+
+Evidence, traced in code rather than recalled:
+
+1. **`sprayDefense.js` and `platoonSeverity.js` are required by NOTHING in
+   `src/`.** Only by analysis scripts and their own tests. The two
+   causally-correct atoms that passed the two-part gate have never been on the
+   serving path.
+
+2. **The served `p_win` reads exactly four inputs**
+   (`intelligence/probabilityEstimator.js:54`): game-log frequency over the line,
+   `opp_rank_stat` (±0.03), `home_away` (±0.015), and a cv consistency pull.
+   Zero occurrences of spray, platoon, hard-hit or contact-profile.
+
+3. **Ordering makes it structural.** `snapshotService` grades at line 454
+   (`gradeAndCacheSlate`) and only computes challenger/context at line 640+.
+   Everything proven is computed **downstream of the grade it would inform**.
+
+So the three proven hits factors — `defense_by_direction`,
+`pitcher_contact_profile`, `platoon_severity` — were measured on ledger rows by
+analysis scripts and **have never once moved a served number.**
+
+That reframes every null in this programme's recent history. "Calibrated p_win
+does not separate within archetype" was never a statement about factors. The
+factors were not in the forecast.
+
+---
+
+## PHASE 3 — bands on served values
+
+| stat | basis | eval rows | slots | slots with lift |
+|---|---|---|---|---|
+| hits | `p_win_lowparam` (served) | 765 | 7 | **0** |
+| total_bases | `p_win_lowparam` (served) | 625 | 7 | **0** |
+| rbi | raw `p_win` | 425 | 7 | **0** |
+| runs | raw `p_win` | 424 | 7 | **0** |
+
+**28 archetype slots across four stats. Zero show lift.** Every slot is one band
+indistinguishable from its own base rate.
+
+This is no longer an open shrug. It is the arithmetic consequence of resolution
+of 0.0013–0.0327 against uncertainty of ~0.23: **a forecast explaining 1% of the
+outcome's variance cannot produce bands that separate**, and no correction to its
+numbers will change that.
+
+---
+
+## THE HEADLINE
+
+**Calibration is complete. It delivered honest numbers on two stats and ZERO
+grade separation, because the counter has no resolution — 1.03% of variance on
+hits, 0.56% on runs.**
+
+**And the three proven hits factors are NOT WIRED INTO THE FORECAST AT ALL.**
+
+Those two facts together are the programme's position. The second is the reason
+for the first, and it is a plumbing defect rather than a modelling wall — which
+makes it the cheapest high-value fix available.
+
+**Per-archetype grades require proven factors that actually reach `p_win`. That
+is the next and central arc.** This is the last calibration order.
+
+---
+
+## Invariants
+
+Serving unchanged from `74cf1ce` — this order logs and diagnoses. `p_win` never
+mutated; `p_win_lowparam` served, `p_win_isotonic_shadow` logged. No Bonferroni
+slot. Counter and frozen clusters verified file-by-file.

specs/robust-bias-lowparam.md

@@ -0,0 +1,137 @@
+# The bias is robust; the map was not. Low-parameter correction deployed.
+
+## PHASE 0 — the sample-limit truth, on record
+
+**On 19 dates, BOTH stability instruments are underpowered. This is the SAMPLE,
+not a fixable instrument.** No future order should re-open the gate-refinement
+loop expecting a different answer at this N.
+
+- **LODO power 0.014–0.093** against a strong date-driven instability. Across
+  every k from 1.0 to 2.0, the best any stat reaches is 0.337.
+- **Deploy CIs rest on 2–4 date clusters.** A cluster-robust interval at 2
+  clusters has ~1 degree of freedom and a near-undefined width.
+
+Neither certifies forward stability of a specific map. Four orders refined a gate
+the sample cannot support; that loop stops here.
+
+**Record correction on runs:** its `1f40014` DATE-DRIVEN classification was an
+artefact of the coin-flip ruler — 2 reversals in 3 drops never cleared a cutoff
+of 2. runs is an ordinary "no fittable map" refusal. **Not date-driven.**
+
+---
+
+## PHASE 1 — the robust claim: ROBUST
+
+Model-free, map-free, on the picked-side deduped population. Date-block bootstrap
+(whole dates resampled, 5,000 draws).
+
+### Pooled — the shape is textbook favourite-longshot
+
+| bin | n | predicted | realized | over-prediction |
+|---|---|---|---|---|
+| 0.5–0.6 | 1,021 | 0.5477 | 0.5553 | −0.0076 |
+| 0.6–0.7 | 961 | 0.6432 | 0.6004 | +0.0428 |
+| 0.7–0.8 | 745 | 0.7420 | 0.6456 | +0.0963 |
+| 0.8–0.9 | 459 | 0.8430 | 0.6841 | +0.1589 |
+| **0.9–1.0** | 157 | 0.9075 | **0.6624** | **+0.2451** |
+
+Pooled sign stability **0.9946** over 17 date blocks, 90% CI [+0.136, +0.300],
+zero indeterminate resamples.
+
+### Per stat — 4 of 4 replicate
+
+| stat | n | >0.9 bias | date blocks | sign stability | 90% CI | replicates |
+|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
+| hits | 1,140 | +0.2435 | 17 | 0.994 | [0.120, 0.321] | yes |
+| total_bases | 1,050 | +0.2816 | 7 | 1.000 | [0.154, 0.394] | yes |
+| rbi | 630 | +0.2107 | 5 | 1.000 | [0.156, 0.245] | yes |
+| runs | 597 | +0.2367 | 5 | 0.998 | [0.082, 0.314] | yes |
+
+**VERDICT: ROBUST** — pooled ≥95% and 4/4 stats (bar was 3/4).
+
+Worth noting alongside it: **realized rate plateaus at ~0.65–0.68 from p=0.7
+upward.** The 0.9+ bucket (0.6624) performs no better than the 0.8–0.9 bucket
+(0.6841). The model has no genuinely high-confidence reads, only high-confidence
+*numbers*.
+
+---
+
+## PHASE 3 — low-parameter correction, validated as a new estimator
+
+Platt: `p_cal = sigmoid(a·logit(p) + b)`. Two parameters over the whole curve, so
+it **cannot** encode "this Tuesday was odd" — which is precisely the failure mode
+we cannot rule out for isotonic on this sample.
+
+Shrunk toward identity by fit-date count: `w = D/(D+10)`, applied as
+`w·p_platt + (1−w)·p_raw`. A thin fit is therefore applied at reduced strength.
+
+| stat | a | shrink | eval n | blocks | Brier raw | low-param | Δ vs raw | CI (date-block) | decision |
+|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
+| **hits** | 0.406 | 0.565 | 765 | 4 | 0.2626 | 0.2540 | **−0.0086** | [−0.0112, −0.0069] | **DEPLOY** |
+| **total_bases** | 0.472 | 0.333 | 625 | 2 | 0.2490 | 0.2429 | **−0.0061** | [−0.0062, −0.0059] | **DEPLOY** |
+| rbi | 0.775 | 0.231 | 425 | 2 | 0.2011 | 0.2007 | −0.0004 | [−0.0007, **0**] | REFUSE |
+| runs | −0.032 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | **REFUSE (slope)** |
+
+### A guard the first run needed
+
+runs fitted **a = −0.032**. A non-positive slope does not flatten an
+over-confident forecaster — it **inverts** it, and near zero the curve collapses
+to a constant, predicting the base rate for everything. That *lowers* Brier
+(shrinking a miscalibrated forecaster toward its base rate always does) while
+destroying all resolution, so it would have **scored as a win while making the
+product worthless**. `MIN_SLOPE` now refuses it by name, with a test.
+
+### Stated plainly: isotonic scored better, and we are not using it
+
+On the identical held-out rows, isotonic beat the low-parameter fit on hits
+(+0.0028, CI [0.0013, 0.0045]) and rbi (+0.0042, CI [0.0003, 0.0092]), and tied
+on total_bases (−0.0009, CI spanning zero).
+
+**The swap is a capacity judgement, not a measurement.** The evaluation window
+spans 2–4 date blocks, so "isotonic wins OOS" there is weak evidence, and it is
+exactly what a flexible map would produce if it captured structure shared by the
+fit and evaluation periods. That reasoning is a judgement and is labelled as one.
+
+---
+
+## PHASE 4 — deploy and labelling
+
+| stat | served | basis |
+|---|---|---|
+| hits | low-parameter correction | `direction_robust_magnitude_provisional` |
+| total_bases | low-parameter correction | `direction_robust_magnitude_provisional` |
+| **rbi** | **RAW — withdrawn** | deployed on isotonic at `ced4042`; low-param does not beat raw |
+| runs | RAW | slope refused |
+
+The **direction** is bootstrap-robust; the **magnitude** is thin-sample and
+conservatively shrunk (0.565 hits, 0.333 TB). Customer-facing letter unchanged.
+
+Auto-demotion remains armed via `calibrationRegistry.reverify`: a sign flip in
+the >0.9 bucket or a CI crossing zero demotes to raw and logs the breaking date.
+Promotion to non-provisional stays at the original ≥40 date-cluster bar.
+
+---
+
+## PHASE 5 — the standing finding, stated hard
+
+**Across 18 archetype slots on three stats, calibrated `p_win` separates within
+archetype NO BETTER than raw. Every slot collapses to one band, indistinguishable
+from its own base rate. Zero slots show lift.**
+
+Per-archetype grade separation is **not coming from calibration**. It comes from
+**proven factors or it does not exist.**
+
+This reframes the roadmap. Calibration has now been pursued through five orders
+and has delivered exactly what it can deliver — honest numbers on two stats — and
+nothing at all on the question the grade product actually turns on. The next real
+lever is factors on the stats that lack them.
+
+---
+
+## Invariants
+
+`p_win` never mutated — the correction rides as `p_win_calibrated`. Calibration
+consumed no Bonferroni slot. The robust-claim test ran before any calibrator was
+built and could have terminated the session at Phase 2. Counter and frozen
+clusters verified file-by-file (14 modules, including `calibration.js` and
+`calibrationService.js`, both untouched and simply no longer on the serving path).

specs/runs-rbi-per-archetype.md

@@ -0,0 +1,143 @@
+# runs + RBI — mostly-base-rate confirmed, and stronger than expected
+
+**Nothing proved. For RBI even the ARCHETYPE split is theatre, so the honest
+grade is the POOLED base rate.** The order anticipated that mostly-base-rate
+would be the correct answer for context-heavy stats. It is, and one level deeper
+than predicted.
+
+## Premise note
+
+The order's closing line says the batter board is "per-archetype-graded" after
+this. It is not: **nothing has been rescaled for hits or total_bases either** —
+no archetype slot has ever reached sample, and `gradeBands` remains built, gated
+and unwired. This is the fourth stat measured, not the completion of three.
+
+---
+
+## STEP 1 — Full-history audit
+
+| | clean | with p_win | players | dates | **games** | lines |
+|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
+| RBI | 935 | 931 | 344 | 5 | **43** | 0.5 on 885 |
+| RUNS | 617 | 614 | 334 | 5 | **33** | 0.5 on all |
+
+Zero quarantined in either. **No archetype slot reaches 500.**
+
+| archetype | RBI n | RUNS n |
+|---|---|---|
+| UNLABELLED | 546 | 341 |
+| BOMBER | 207 | 148 |
+| GHOST | 92 | 67 |
+| BRUSH | 43 | 26 |
+| **DRIVER** | **24** | 20 |
+| **CATALYST** | 13 | **9** |
+
+**The signature archetypes the order names are the two smallest slots on the
+board** — RBI→DRIVER at n=24, runs→CATALYST at n=9. The hypothesis is reasonable
+and we are three orders of magnitude from being able to test it.
+
+**RUNS is refused structurally before any factor is tested: 33 game clusters
+against a 40 floor.** Reported as such rather than dressed up as a factor result.
+
+## Inputs reconstructed rather than declared missing
+
+`lineup_context` only covers 2026-08-04/05/06 (ingest began last week) while
+settled rows start 07-31, so just 187 of 617 runs rows join to a batting order.
+That reads as input-blocked — but the play-by-play cache runs from 05-01, and
+**the batting order IS the order batters first appear.** Batting slot, power
+behind (mean barrel of the next three slots) and reach-base rate were all
+reconstructed point-in-time from it: coverage went 187 → 574.
+
+---
+
+## STEP 2/3 — The gate (153 / 168 cumulative tests)
+
+### RBI — all THEATER
+
+| factor | n | clusters | shift | Brier Δ | CI | verdict |
+|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
+| `risp_opportunity` | 803 | 43 | 0.0585 | **+0.0047** | [−0.0023, +0.0122] | **THEATER** |
+| `extra_base_skill` | 881 | 43 | 0.0271 | **+0.0010** | [−0.0023, +0.0042] | **THEATER** |
+| `risp × extra_base` | 803 | 43 | 0.0624 | **+0.0056** | [−0.0042, +0.0135] | **THEATER** |
+
+### RUNS — all refused on cluster count, all pointing the wrong way
+
+| factor | n | clusters | shift | Brier Δ | verdict |
+|---|---|---|---|---|---|
+| `reach_base` | 525 | 32 | 0.0383 | +0.0043 | PENDING — k<40 |
+| `lineup_power_behind` | 574 | 32 | 0.0232 | +0.0008 | PENDING — k<40 |
+| `reach × power_behind` | 525 | 32 | 0.0482 | +0.0054 | PENDING — k<40 |
+
+### The compound is the WORST version, in both stats
+
+RBI: 0.0047 / 0.0010 → **0.0056** compounded. RUNS: 0.0043 / 0.0008 →
+**0.0054** compounded.
+
+The causally-correct compound was the most promising factor on the sheet and is
+the most harmful in both. Two multipliers that individually carry nothing do not
+cancel — they compound each other's noise. Related to but distinct from the
+collapsed-sequence lesson: there the product of two REAL effects was too small to
+use; here the product of two NULL effects is actively worse than either.
+
+---
+
+## The archetype itself does not rescue it
+
+The archetype base rates look strongly differentiated, and that appearance is
+most of the trap:
+
+| | RBI | RUNS |
+|---|---|---|
+| DRIVER | **0.609** (n=23) | 0.500 (n=20) |
+| GHOST | 0.467 | **0.716** (n=67) |
+| BOMBER | 0.413 | 0.460 |
+| pooled | 0.4305 | 0.5721 |
+
+Tested directly — is the archetype's leave-one-out base rate better than the
+pooled one?
+
+| | shift | Brier Δ | CI | verdict |
+|---|---|---|---|---|
+| **RBI** | 0.0231 | +0.0010 | [−0.0034, +0.0050] | **THEATER** |
+| **RUNS** | 0.0642 | −0.0028 | [−0.0147, +0.0108] | CANDIDATE — k=33 |
+
+**For RBI, knowing the archetype makes the forecast worse.** DRIVER's 0.609 is
+n=23 — the spread is small-slot noise wearing a decimal point. Runs is at least
+directionally favourable, and unproven.
+
+Had this been read off the base-rate table instead of gated, the session would
+have shipped "archetype differentiation is real and large" as a finding. It is
+not one.
+
+---
+
+## The cross-stat pattern that IS real
+
+| stat | mean p_win | actual | counter bias |
+|---|---|---|---|
+| total_bases | 0.5698 | 0.5074 | **+0.0624** |
+| RBI | 0.4860 | 0.4313 | **+0.0547** |
+| runs | 0.5949 | 0.5749 | **+0.0200** |
+
+**The counter over-predicts every batter counting stat measured.** Across four
+stats and three sessions, calibration is the systematic defect and factor
+scarcity is not — TB's held-out isotonic fix (−0.0039 Brier) still outperforms
+every factor tried on any stat, all of which have been null or theatre.
+
+## STEP 4 — No rescale
+
+Two-bar rule: nothing proved, nothing certified calibrated, no slot at sample —
+and for RBI the archetype split is itself theatre, so the honest band is the
+POOLED base rate rather than a per-archetype one. `gradeBands` returns exactly
+that by construction.
+
+## Next, by value
+
+1. **Calibrate the counter across all four stats.** One systematic bias,
+   measured four times, larger than anything else on the board.
+2. **Stop adding factors to context stats.** Six tested across runs/RBI, six
+   null-or-worse, and the compounds worst of all.
+3. Runs needs game-date accrual to clear the cluster floor before it can be
+   gated at all.
+
+Counter and frozen clusters byte-identical.

specs/settlement-and-four-stat-calibration.md

@@ -0,0 +1,179 @@
+# Settlement + four-stat calibration — the enabling move did not enable
+
+**Settlement is done (15,484 rows written). Calibration improves held-out Brier
+on all three stats it can be fitted for — more than any factor ever tested. And
+no stat can deploy, because the date-cluster ceiling is 17, not 90.**
+
+---
+
+## PHASE 0 — Board reconcile (corrections to the record)
+
+| claim in circulation | measured |
+|---|---|
+| ~22,032 snapshots unsettled | **71,192** rows, **0** settled |
+| snapshots span 05-01 → 08-04 (~90 dates) | **07-19 → 08-06 = 19 dates** |
+| "calibrate all four on the full replay" | replay yields **17 / 7 / 5 / 5** dates per stat |
+| batter board is per-archetype graded | **nothing has ever been rescaled**, on any stat |
+| TB inversion confirmed | **units-bug artifact — UNPROVEN** (S: prove-tb-factors) |
+
+**What actually drives each number today: a base-rate band, on all four stats.**
+No stat is per-archetype graded. Proven FACTORS exist on hits only
+(`defense_by_direction`; `pitcher_contact_profile` and `platoon_severity` are
+held/demoted, not proven). `gradeBands` remains built, gated and unwired.
+
+---
+
+## PHASE 1 — Settlement
+
+```
+candidates 34,650 (4 stats) -> settled 16,498 | unresolvable 12,894 | orphaned 5,258
+written 15,484   (shortfall = idempotency guard vs the live cron)
+conservation check PASSED
+```
+
+### Two integrity findings, both caught by the gate
+
+**1. Unordered pagination over a LIVE table.** The dupe check hard-failed on
+snapshot id 33875. `model_snapshots` is written by the cron at 14/19/22/1/3 UTC,
+and an unordered `.range()` walk over a table being appended to returns
+overlapping pages. Fixed with `.order('id')`. A plain id-only fetch showed no
+dupes, so this only bites on longer reads that straddle a cron write.
+
+**2. 12,894 rows were logged AFTER first pitch.** Cycles at ET 21:00/22:00/23:00
+*on the game date* (10,738 rows) plus 664 the following morning. A 01:00-UTC
+cycle is 21:00 the previous evening Eastern — same game date, ~2 hours into the
+slate. These are not predictions and are excluded.
+
+Tested whether they were outcome-contaminated: bias +0.0058 in-game vs +0.0008
+pre-game — **not sharper, just late.** Excluded for provenance, not because they
+cheated.
+
+### The enabling move did not enable
+
+| stat | usable props | date-clusters |
+|---|---|---|
+| hits | 1,140 | **17** |
+| total_bases | 1,050 | **7** |
+| rbi | 630 | **5** |
+| runs | 597 | **5** |
+
+71,192 rows collapse to 4,799 distinct pre-game props: a 2.5× cycle fan-out,
+then 97.6% both-sides duplication, then the pre-game filter. **Hits ends with
+1,140 rows against the ledger's existing 1,312.** Settlement was worth doing as a
+standing debt; it did not unlock the sample the order expected.
+
+---
+
+## THE MEASUREMENT THAT NEARLY WENT THE OTHER WAY
+
+**97.6% of props carry BOTH sides.** Their p_wins sum to ~1 and their outcomes
+are complementary, so any calibration statistic over the raw population is pinned
+to 0.5 by construction:
+
+| | hits | TB | rbi | runs |
+|---|---|---|---|---|
+| both-sides population | +0.0002 | +0.0012 | +0.0019 | +0.0000 |
+| **model-picked side only** | **+0.0868** | **+0.0834** | **+0.0164** | **+0.0410** |
+
+The first row reads "the counter is perfectly calibrated" and would have
+overturned three sessions of findings. Same rows, opposite conclusion, and the
+tell was mean p_win sitting at 0.4998 on every stat.
+
+---
+
+## PHASE 2/3 — Calibration and the deploy gate
+
+Isotonic, point-in-time, fit-past / apply-forward. The split is placed by
+cumulative ROWS rather than date index — props are not spread evenly across dates
+and a 60%-of-dates cut left only 143 rows to fit on, under the fitter's 200
+minimum. Still strictly temporal: every fit date precedes every eval date.
+
+| stat | n | dates | bias | fit / eval | Brier raw | Brier cal | Δ | CI (date-clustered) | eval dates | decision |
+|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
+| hits | 1,140 | 17 | +0.0868 | 375 / 765 | 0.2626 | 0.2511 | **−0.0115** | [−0.0139, −0.0097] | 4 | **REFUSE** |
+| total_bases | 1,050 | 7 | +0.0834 | 425 / 625 | 0.2490 | 0.2438 | **−0.0052** | [−0.0061, −0.0045] | 2 | **REFUSE** |
+| rbi | 630 | 5 | +0.0164 | 205 / 425 | 0.2011 | 0.1965 | **−0.0046** | [−0.0092, −0.0010] | 2 | **REFUSE** |
+| runs | 597 | 5 | +0.0410 | 173 / 424 | — | — | — | — | — | **REFUSE** |
+
+- hits / TB / rbi: **held-out Brier improves and the interval excludes zero.**
+  Every one of these beats every factor ever tested on any stat.
+- runs: **no map could be fitted** — 173 fit rows under the 200 minimum.
+- **All four refuse on the date floor: 2–4 eval date-clusters against 40.**
+
+Certified bands (held-out |err| ≤ 0.05): hits [0.5–0.7], TB [0.6–0.8],
+rbi [0.5–0.9]. Outside band → refuse, fall to base rate.
+
+### A null that scored itself
+
+The first run reported hits at Brier **0.5567** — worse than predicting 0.5 for
+everything. `fitIsotonic` returns null below its minimum, `applyIsotonic` then
+returns null per row, and `(null − 1)² === 1` while `(null − 0)² === 0`, so the
+"Brier score" was silently just the win rate (0.5684). **This project's signature
+`Number(null) === 0` breach, in my own measurement code.** Now a hard refuse.
+
+---
+
+## PHASE 4 — Bias shape (diagnostic only)
+
+| stat | 0.5–0.6 | 0.6–0.7 | 0.7–0.8 | 0.8–0.9 | 0.9–1.0 |
+|---|---|---|---|---|---|
+| hits | +0.024 | +0.054 | +0.145 | +0.244 | +0.244 |
+| total_bases | −0.019 | +0.076 | +0.156 | +0.160 | +0.282 |
+| rbi | −0.026 | −0.045 | −0.039 | +0.095 | +0.211 |
+| runs | −0.050 | +0.031 | +0.064 | +0.155 | +0.237 |
+
+**Not a uniform shift — favourite-longshot concentration, identically shaped on
+all four stats.** Near zero or slightly negative at the bottom, then rising
+sharply. The counter is over-confident specifically about its favourites, which
+is the population a user acts on.
+
+Cross-stat gradient measured: hits +0.0868 ≈ TB +0.0834 > runs +0.0410 > rbi
++0.0164 — not the TB > RBI > runs the order anticipated.
+
+---
+
+## PHASE 5/6 — Not run, honestly
+
+Both are gated on a Phase 3 deploy. Nothing deployed, so there is no
+`p_win_calibrated` to rebuild bands on and no activated stat to test
+per-archetype curves against. Running them would be building on a gate that did
+not open.
+
+---
+
+## PHASE 7 — Refusal accuracy (first real measurement)
+
+| stat | refused n | refused over-rate | graded over-rate | refused \|dist from 0.5\| | graded |
+|---|---|---|---|---|---|
+| hits | 59 | 0.4237 | 0.5368 | 0.076 | 0.037 |
+| total_bases | 74 | 0.2162 | 0.4029 | **0.284** | 0.097 |
+| rbi | 141 | 0.1773 | 0.2429 | **0.323** | 0.257 |
+| runs | 12 | 0.6667 | 0.3015 | 0.167 | 0.199 |
+
+**Refused props are FURTHER from a coin flip than graded ones, not closer.** The
+obvious explanation — refusals concentrate on players who barely played — was
+tested and does not hold: refused mean 3.20 AB vs graded 3.39, and 6.6% vs 6.2%
+with ≤1 AB.
+
+So "we pass on what we can't call" is not quite what happens. We pass on what we
+have no INPUT for, and that population had outcomes that were, in hindsight,
+lopsided (TB refusals went over 21.6% of the time). Refusing to invent a number
+without a reference remains correct — but the pass is not landing on the
+genuinely uncertain props, and this is the first time that has been a number
+rather than a claim.
+
+---
+
+## Verdict
+
+- **Calibration works.** Three stats improve held-out, all beating every factor
+  ever tested. The programme-level finding stands: calibration beats every factor
+  tried on TB/RBI/runs.
+- **Nothing deploys.** The date-cluster floor is the right unit for a systematic-
+  bias claim and we have 2–4 where 40 is required. Reaching 40 date-clusters
+  needs ~5 more weeks of accrual, not more replay — the dates do not exist.
+- **The floor is the order's own** and it was not relaxed to force a pass.
+
+`p_win` never mutated; no `p_win_calibrated` written since nothing deployed.
+Calibration consumed no Bonferroni slot. Counter and frozen clusters
+byte-identical.

specs/tb-per-archetype.md

@@ -0,0 +1,146 @@
+# total_bases — every power factor is THEATER, and the units bug nearly hid it
+
+**Nothing proved. The predicted inversion did not appear. And the one real
+finding is that the counter is badly miscalibrated on this stat, not that it is
+missing a factor.**
+
+---
+
+## Premise correction
+
+The order describes the per-archetype rescale method as "PROVEN and LIVE on
+hits". It is neither. `gradeBands` was built and gated two orders ago and
+explicitly **not wired**: no hits archetype slot reached sample, every band came
+back base-rate, and only `defense_by_direction` proved pooled. This is therefore
+applying an **unvalidated-at-archetype-level** method to a second stat, not
+rolling out a proven one.
+
+## STEP 1 — Full-history audit
+
+988 clean settled total_bases rows (101 quarantined, 948 carrying `p_win`), 341
+players, **9 distinct game dates**.
+
+| archetype | n | vs gate |
+|---|---|---|
+| UNLABELLED | 373 | short 127 |
+| **BOMBER** | **340** | short 160 |
+| GHOST | 147 | short 353 |
+| BRUSH | 55 | short 445 |
+| DRIVER | 40 | short 460 |
+
+**No slot reaches 500 — confirmed on full history, not a windowed artifact.**
+
+The 9-date figure matters more than the row count: with only ~49 games, any
+game-borne or venue-borne factor has almost no replication here.
+
+## The baseline had to change, and it is a HARDER null
+
+The hits gate used the player's leave-one-out base rate. That cannot be
+reproduced: TB lines vary (1.5 on 559 rows, 0.5 on 345, 2.5 on 45), and a
+player's rate of clearing 1.5 bases is a different quantity from 0.5. At ~2 rows
+per player-line, a per-line personal base rate would have to be invented.
+
+So the null here is the **counter's own forecast**, which already prices the
+line. A factor must beat the champion, not "he's due" — strictly harder.
+
+---
+
+## THE UNITS BUG (caught, and it had produced the best result in the programme)
+
+The first run reported `barrel_rate` at Brier **−0.0095**, the largest
+improvement ever measured here. It was an artifact.
+
+`fromStatcastRow` returns `barrel_pct` as a **FRACTION** (0.06); the raw table
+stores 0–100. The factor was written against the percentage scale, so
+`(0.06 − 7.8) × 0.018` clamped **every row** to the maximum negative shift. That
+uniform downward push "improved" Brier only by leaning on the counter's
+over-prediction bias — it contained no barrel information whatsoever.
+
+Same family as the S80 units trap, inverted: there the raw percentages were fed
+in unconverted; here the converted fractions were read as percentages.
+`exit_velo` was a second, simpler wiring bug — the column is `avg_exit_velo`, so
+the factor read null on every row and reported n=0. **A zero is a wiring bug
+until proven an honest absence.**
+
+---
+
+## STEP 2/3 — The gate, units fixed (138 cumulative tests)
+
+| factor | n | entities | clustered on | k | shift | Brier Δ | CI | verdict |
+|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
+| `barrel_rate` | 707 | 179 | game | 49 | 0.0364 | **+0.0036** | [−0.0025, +0.0101] | **THEATER** |
+| `exit_velo` | 707 | 179 | game | 49 | 0.0229 | **+0.0022** | [−0.0030, +0.0072] | **THEATER** |
+| `hard_contact_allowed` | 707 | 93 | game | 49 | 0.0260 | **+0.0033** | [−0.0019, +0.0082] | **THEATER** |
+| `park_weather_hit_type` | 651 | **36** | treatment entity | 36 | 0.0070 | +0.0016 | [+0.0001, +0.0038] | PENDING — k<40 |
+| `platoon_severity` | 481 | 120 | game | 49 | 0.0243 | +0.0006 | [−0.0045, +0.0055] | PENDING — n<500 |
+
+All three contact-quality factors move the number and make it **worse**.
+
+### The predicted inversion did not appear — it went the other way
+
+The order expects barrel and park→hit-type to prove for POWER archetypes, since
+extra bases are where their value lives. Measured:
+
+| | BOMBER | GHOST |
+|---|---|---|
+| `barrel_rate` | **+0.0114** (most harmful cell in the table) | +0.0012 |
+| `exit_velo` | +0.0067 | +0.0011 |
+
+**BOMBER × barrel_rate is the single worst result**, exactly where the strongest
+proof was predicted. All slots are sample-blocked so none of this is a verdict —
+but the direction is recorded so it is not claimed later.
+
+### Why — and it is NOT double-counting
+
+The obvious explanation is that the counter already prices power, so adding
+barrel double-counts it. **Tested and refuted:** corr(barrel_pct, p_win) =
+**−0.061**. The counter is not pricing barrel at all.
+
+The actual answer is duller and more useful: corr(barrel_pct, counter
+**residual**) = **−0.012**. Barrel carries essentially no information about what
+the counter gets wrong. It is a real skill that does not help at this line.
+
+This also closes the S81 lead: `hard_hit_pct` marginal r = 0.153 at n=295, which
+drifted to 0.135 at n=383 (S82) and is now THEATER at n=707. An estimate
+regressing as noise averages out, followed to its conclusion.
+
+---
+
+## The real finding: TB is miscalibrated, not under-factored
+
+```
+mean p_win 0.5698   actual hit rate 0.5074   counter bias +0.0624
+```
+
+Held out on a strict time split (fit on dates < 2026-08-02, evaluated on 651 rows
+the fit never saw):
+
+| | Brier | Δ |
+|---|---|---|
+| raw counter | 0.25007 | — |
+| constant de-bias | 0.24740 | −0.00267 |
+| **isotonic** | **0.24621** | **−0.00386** |
+
+**The calibration fix is worth more than any factor tested, and it is the only
+intervention pointing the right way.** It is nonetheless refused at the corrected
+bar — 32 game clusters in the eval window against a 40 floor — so it is a
+CANDIDATE, not a result.
+
+That also explains the units bug's fake success precisely: a blanket downward
+shift is a crude de-bias, and it "worked" for that reason alone.
+
+## STEP 4 — No rescale
+
+Two-bar rule: nothing proved, nothing calibrated-and-certified for TB, no
+archetype slot at sample. Every band would be an honest base-rate band, which is
+what `gradeBands` already returns by construction. Running it would add nothing.
+
+## Next, in order of value
+
+1. **Calibrate total_bases** — largest measured effect, needs game-date accrual
+   to clear the cluster floor, not new inputs.
+2. **Stop adding contact-quality factors to TB.** Three tested, three THEATER,
+   and the residual correlation says there is nothing there to find.
+3. Archetype slots need ~160 more BOMBER rows before any per-archetype claim.
+
+Counter and frozen clusters byte-identical.

specs/under-querying-vs-out-of-data.md

@@ -0,0 +1,157 @@
+# Were we out of data, or not using what we had?
+
+**Both — and which one it is depends entirely on what unit a factor varies over.**
+That distinction turned out to matter more than the sample counts themselves.
+
+---
+
+## 1. Player-level factors: we were under-querying
+
+The platoon test reported n=452 and "48 short of the gate." That number described
+how much of the JOIN survived, not how much data exists.
+
+| | used | actually available |
+|---|---|---|
+| clean settled `hits` rows | 452 | **1,266** |
+| clean settled `total_bases` rows | 383 | **928** |
+| quarantined `hits` rows | — | **0** |
+| hitters with platoon splits | 298 | 380 needed |
+
+`platoon_splits` had been ingested from *tonight's lineups only* — 315 players —
+so any hitter who settled a prop but was not in a lineup on an ingest day was
+silently absent from every test. Backfilling all 380 (`scripts/backfill-context.js`)
+took one pass and no waiting: **81 hitters fetched, 0 unresolved, coverage now
+380/380.**
+
+Re-run on the full clean history (`scripts/prove-hit-factors.js`, rows 452 → **1,059**):
+
+| factor | n | mean shift | Brier Δ | CI (corrected, 55 tests) | verdict |
+|---|---|---|---|---|---|
+| `defense_by_direction` | 782 | 0.0127 | −0.0031 | [−0.0050, −0.0013] | **PROVES** |
+| `platoon` | 1,056 | 0.0268 | −0.0033 | [−0.0062, −0.0001] | PROVES\* |
+| `platoon_severity` | 700 | 0.0218 | −0.0038 | [−0.0076, −0.0001] | PROVES\* |
+| `defense` | 912 | 0.0289 | −0.0038 | [−0.0079, +0.0002] | NOT_PROVEN |
+| `pitcher_contact_profile` | 1,059 | 0.0259 | −0.0034 | [−0.0078, +0.0006] | **NOT_PROVEN — demoted** |
+| `park_hits` | 619 | 0.0190 | −0.0037 | [−0.0076, +0.0005] | NOT_PROVEN |
+
+### 1a. The demotion is the real headline
+
+`pitcher_contact_profile` was the strongest proven factor in the programme
+(Brier −0.0064, CI [−0.0113, −0.0014]). On more than double the sample its point
+estimate **roughly halved to −0.0034** and the corrected interval now spans zero.
+
+Two things moved at once and honesty requires naming both: the cumulative
+Bonferroni denominator also rose to 55, which widens every interval. But the
+denominator cannot touch a *point estimate*, and that halved on its own. This is
+the standing second line doing exactly what it exists for — more data demoting a
+favourite rather than confirming it.
+
+### 1b. \*The two platoon passes are NOT promoted
+
+Both clear the bar with an upper bound of **−0.0001**. That is as marginal as a
+pass can be, and they ride a reconstructed input:
+
+`platoon_splits` are **season-to-date**, so applying today's split to a game from
+2026-07-15 means the split contains that game. Measured, not assumed:
+
+- median contamination **4.5%** of the split's plate appearances
+- p90 **12.4%**
+- worst **137%** (call-ups whose scored games outnumber their split sample)
+
+I had originally estimated ~1%. It is four and a half times that, and it runs in
+the flattering direction on a result whose margin is one ten-thousandth. These
+stay **CANDIDATE — pending point-in-time splits**. Promoting a 4.5%-contaminated
+input on a −0.0001 bound would be exactly the kind of pass this programme keeps
+having to retract.
+
+---
+
+## 2. Game-level factors: genuinely short, and no backfill fixes it
+
+`game_context` held **zero** weather readings, ever. The fetcher was correct and
+already pointed at Open-Meteo's **archive** endpoint. The failure was that the
+two tables had never been introduced:
+
+```
+ledger_entries.game_id  =  mlb:2026-08-03:WashingtonNationals@PhiladelphiaPhillies
+game_context.game_id    =  mlb:823437
+```
+
+Every lookup missed, and NULL weather columns read exactly like "the weather was
+unavailable." **Same class as the doubled `/leaderboard` path: graceful
+degradation wearing the mask of honest absence.** That is now three occurrences;
+it is the failure mode this codebase produces most reliably.
+
+Fixed in `scripts/reconstruct-game-environment.js` — resolves each ledger slug to
+its real statsapi game and venue, writes `game_context` keyed by the *ledger's*
+key, then pulls actual archived weather:
+
+- 101 settled games → **96 matched**, 30 venues
+- **96/96 venue-days returned real archived weather** (`open_meteo_archive`)
+- park dimensions backfilled 15 → **30 venues**, zero dimension changes observed
+
+### 2a. Park dimensions: what I verified and what I did not
+
+statsapi serves only **current** venue geometry — it has no historical record. My
+capture window is 2026-08-04 to 08-05, so "no mid-season change" is verified
+across *two days*, which is nearly no verification at all. Applying current
+dimensions to July games is the order's stated allowance and it is almost
+certainly fine, but I did not verify it and will not claim to have.
+
+### 2b. Why 928 rows are 47 readings
+
+Park and weather assign **one value per game**. The 928 clean settled
+`total_bases` rows sit on **47 distinct games — median 17.6 rows per game.**
+Eighteen hitters in one ballpark on one night are one reading of that ballpark,
+not eighteen.
+
+Resampling rows would treat them as independent and return an interval far
+tighter than the evidence supports. `factorGate.improvement` now resamples
+**clusters** when rows carry one, and `adjudicate` judges sample against
+`effective_n`. Rows without a cluster keep the original path byte-for-byte.
+
+`scripts/prove-park-weather.js`:
+
+```
+rows_built 828 | distinct_games 47 | rows_per_game 17.6
+brier_delta +0.0011   (WORSE, not merely unproven)
+effective_n 47
+VERDICT: CANDIDATE_PENDING_SAMPLE — 47 independent clusters < 500
+```
+
+---
+
+## 3. The verdict: tested-now vs real-wait
+
+| factor | unit it varies over | units held | ceiling | real wait |
+|---|---|---|---|---|
+| platoon, defence-by-direction | **hitter-game** | 1,059 | none | **none — answered now** |
+| weather | **game** | 47 | none | **~57 days** at 7 games/settled-day |
+| park dimensions | **venue** | 30 | **30, permanently** | **never** |
+
+The last row is arithmetic, not pessimism. **There are 30 ballparks in MLB.** A
+factor constant per venue can never accumulate 500 independent units no matter
+how long the ledger runs. A park-geometry effect is only ever validatable as a
+fixed effect with many games per park under a hierarchical model — never under a
+bar expressed in independent units. The n≥500 bar was designed for player-level
+factors and quietly does not transfer.
+
+**So: we were under-querying at the player level, and genuinely short at the game
+level — and for park geometry specifically, "wait for more data" was never going
+to be the answer.**
+
+---
+
+## 4. Wind is refused
+
+`parkWeather` reads temperature, elevation and geometry. It does **not** read
+wind, and says so on every read (`wind_readable: false`).
+
+We have the wind — Open-Meteo returns speed and bearing for all 96 games. What we
+lack is **park orientation**: which compass direction each stadium's centre field
+faces. A 15 mph wind from 220° is blowing out to right at one park and straight in
+at another, and those are opposite predictions.
+
+The tempting move is to use wind *speed* alone as a magnitude of disruption. That
+asserts an effect while discarding the sign that determines what the effect is.
+Wind stays unreadable until orientation is a real column.

specs/window-bug-class-audit.md

@@ -0,0 +1,128 @@
+# The window-bug class, hunted — three more paths, and the forward re-audit rule
+
+## PHASE 0 — the audit
+
+The defect class: **a fixed short window used AS the season/base rate.**
+`getStatRows` is the single path feeding `meta.gameLogs`, which is where
+`estimateProbability` derives its base rate, so every branch of it is a base-rate
+path. The feature builders are the second surface, because `l20_avg` is the
+season reference `projectionFor` reads.
+
+| path | window | classification |
+|---|---|---|
+| `getStatRows` MLB → estimator base rate | `fullLog` | **CORRECT** (fixed 929fd81) |
+| `mlbGameLogFeatures` → `l5/l10/l20_avg`, `l10_stddev` | `last10` = **10** | **DEFECTIVE** |
+| `espnStatsAdapter.parseGameLog` → NBA/WNBA logs | `rows.slice(0, 20)` = **20** | **DEFECTIVE** |
+| `getStatRows` NBA/WNBA ESPN branch | inherits the 20-cap | **DEFECTIVE (via source)** |
+| `getStatRows` NBA/WNBA Python branch | `getGameLogs(..., 20)` | DEFECTIVE-but-dormant (service offline in prod) |
+| **pitcher engine** (`pitcherEngine`, `skillProjection`) | reads statcast **profiles**, no game log | **N/A** |
+| pitcher props (strikeouts) via `getStatRows` MLB | `fullLog` | **CORRECT** — fixed by the same change |
+| `settleSource` | already reads the full log (S64) | CORRECT |
+| `playerIntelService`, `streaksService` | display/streak surfaces, not forecasts | N/A |
+
+**The pitcher answer matters and is good news:** pitcher props run through the
+same `getStatRows` MLB branch, so `929fd81` repaired them too — there is no
+separate defective pitcher base-rate path.
+
+### The one that was hiding in plain sight
+
+`mlbGameLogFeatures` carries this comment:
+
+> `l20 = all available (the season per-game reference projectionFor needs)`
+
+Built from `last10`, **`l20_avg` was a ten-game average wearing a season label** —
+and it feeds both the consistency (cv) pull inside the estimator and
+`projectionFor`, which decides refusals. Same class as the base-rate bug, same
+file, and it survived the previous repair because that fix touched only
+`getStatRows`.
+
+---
+
+## PHASE 1 — fixes
+
+| path | fix | API cost |
+|---|---|---|
+| `mlbGameLogFeatures` | read `fullLog`, fall back to `last10` | **ZERO** — same response |
+| `espnStatsAdapter.parseGameLog` | drop the `slice(0, 20)` cap | **ZERO** — same payload, already parsed |
+| NBA/WNBA Python branch | left as-is | service offline in prod; fixing it would be speculative |
+
+**No new API calls anywhere.** Both fixes widen data that was already fetched and
+then discarded — the same shape as the original repair.
+
+### Measurement status, stated honestly
+
+These are serving changes for the MLB feature path and the NBA/WNBA log path.
+**Their before/after resolution is NOT measured here**, and deliberately: the
+only way to measure it today would be to reconstruct the repaired forecast over
+old rows, which is the reconstruction-vs-served trap this order explicitly
+refuses. They ship as code fixes with the measurement deferred to accrual, which
+is the honest sequencing.
+
+---
+
+## PHASE 2 — the forward re-audit rule, in code
+
+`MODEL_VERSION` is bumped to **`engine1@2026-08-07-fullwindow`**, so every
+snapshot from this commit forward is self-identifying. `retentionService` already
+stamps it onto `model_snapshots`, so no new plumbing was needed.
+
+`model/reAuditEligibility.js` encodes the rule:
+
+- **`isEligible(row)`** — true only for rows carrying the repaired marker.
+- **`assess(rows)`** — counts eligible **DATES**, not rows, because dates have
+  been the binding scarcity in every interval this session.
+- **`ACCRUAL`** (frozen) — pre-stated minimum dates per measurement:
+
+| measurement | minimum eligible dates |
+|---|---|
+| calibration re-fit | 10 |
+| hits factor lift | 10 |
+| prior verdict re-audit | 14 |
+| rbi lineup-slot gate | 14 |
+
+A test locks the case that would otherwise be invisible: **a MIXED table** of 330
+rows where only 30 carry the new marker returns `eligible_dates: 3`, not 330
+rows' worth of false confidence. Once both generations sit in the same table, a
+naive count would happily fit a map on a blend of two different forecasters.
+
+---
+
+## PHASE 3 — the honest board
+
+**What happened:** the champion computed its season rate over ten games. Found by
+resolution decomposition, not by a test failing. Fixed in two lines. It no longer
+*loses* to a frequency table — it **beats** it CI-confirmed only on total_bases,
+**ties** on rbi and runs, and leads on the hits point estimate.
+
+**Consequences, each labelled:**
+
+- **CALIBRATION — WITHDRAWN.** `CALIBRATION_DEPLOYED` is empty. Maps were fitted
+  on the retired forecast. Re-fits on repaired-champion settled rows. *Waiting on
+  accrual: 10 dates.* Not to be refit on reconstructions.
+- **FACTOR VERDICTS — SUSPECT.** Every prior null and every THEATER was measured
+  against a champion worse than a frequency table; signal added to noise reads as
+  noise. Re-audit on accrued rows. **Direction UNKNOWN** — some may pass, some
+  may still fail. Not pre-priced. *Waiting: 14 dates.*
+- **HITS FACTOR LIFT (1.39%) — UN-REMEASURABLE.** Needs rows produced *by* the
+  repaired champion. *Waiting: 10 dates.* The factors remain wired and
+  transmitting (43f65d3); only the lift number is unquantified.
+- **RBI LINEUP-SLOT — RE-QUEUED.** Lands after the champion is sound and rows
+  accrue. *Waiting: 14 dates.*
+
+**Pre-registered re-audit order** (each runs only when its bar is met):
+1. Re-fit calibration on repaired-champion rows (10 dates)
+2. Re-measure hits factor lift (10 dates)
+3. Re-audit prior factor verdicts (14 dates)
+4. Run rbi lineup-slot through the two-part gate (14 dates)
+
+**Then STOP and accrue.** Nothing further can be honestly measured until the
+board fills with rows the repaired champion produced.
+
+---
+
+## Invariants
+
+No measurement on reconstructions — hard refusal, and it is why Phase 1 ships
+code without numbers. Serving-path changes by design for the MLB feature path and
+NBA/WNBA logs; frozen model modules verified unchanged. `p_win` never mutated. No
+Bonferroni slot — base-rate repair and a bug hunt, not causal factors.

src/services/adapters/espnStatsAdapter.js

@@ -227,7 +227,10 @@ function parseGameLog(payload) {
     if (Number.isNaN(tb)) return -1;
     return tb - ta;
   });
-  return rows.slice(0, 20);
+  // The ESPN payload carries the full season's events; capping at 20 made every
+  // downstream "season rate" a 20-game rate. Same class as the MLB last10 bug
+  // and free to widen -- this is the same response, already parsed.
+  return rows;
 }
 
 async function fetchJsonG(url, opts = {}) {

src/services/gradeSlateService.js

@@ -96,7 +96,13 @@ function dedupeProps(props, limit) {
 // Grade both sides and keep the higher-confidence verdict — that's the
 // side the engine actually favors.
 async function gradeBestSide(grade, prop, sport, opts = {}) {
+  // PIPELINE ORDER: the factor context must reach the engine BEFORE it grades,
+  // because factors adjust the forecast the grade is read from. It was
+  // previously computed downstream of the grade it should inform.
+  const factorContext = typeof opts.factorContext === 'function'
+    ? opts.factorContext(prop, sport) : null;
   const base = {
+    factor_context: factorContext,
     player: prop.player,
     stat_type: prop.stat_type,
     line: prop.line,

src/services/intelligence/analyzeViaEngine1.js

@@ -114,7 +114,11 @@ function buildConcreteReasoning(features = {}, engine1Result = {}, meta = {}, pr
       lines.push(`${prop.player || 'Player'} is averaging ${features.l5_avg.toFixed(1)} ${prop.stat_type || ''} over his last 5 games.`);
     }
     if (Number.isFinite(features.l20_avg)) {
-      lines.push(`Last 20 games average: ${features.l20_avg.toFixed(1)}.`);
+      // LABEL FIXED WITH THE DATA. `l20_avg` is now built from the full season
+      // log rather than a ten-game slice, so "Last 20 games" was a sentence the
+      // number no longer supported. The field name is kept (it is read in many
+      // places) but the copy states what is actually being shown.
+      lines.push(`Season average: ${features.l20_avg.toFixed(1)}.`);
     }
 
     // Trend direction relative to the line.
@@ -547,10 +551,33 @@ async function analyzeViaEngine1(rawProp = {}) {
 
     const dir = String(prop.direction || 'over').toLowerCase();
     const est = estimateProbability({ gameLogs: meta.gameLogs, line: prop.line, statType: rawProp.stat_type, features });
+
+    // ── PROVEN FACTORS, PRE-GRADE ────────────────────────────────────────
+    // base rate -> FACTORS -> (calibration, later) -> grade. Only the three
+    // factors that passed the two-part gate, only on hits, and only where each
+    // is readable — every unreadable case leaves the forecast untouched rather
+    // than nudging it toward a default.
+    let pOver = est.p_over;
+    let factorTrace = null;
+    if (String(rawProp.stat_type || '').toLowerCase() === 'hits' && rawProp.factor_context) {
+      try {
+        const hf = require('../model/hitsFactors');
+        const adj = hf.adjustProbability(pOver, rawProp.factor_context);
+        if (adj.p_adjusted != null && adj.factors_fired > 0) {
+          pOver = adj.p_adjusted;
+          factorTrace = { multiplier: adj.multiplier, applied: adj.applied, skipped: adj.skipped, p_before: adj.p_base };
+        }
+      } catch { /* a factor must never break the grade */ }
+    }
+
     const pWin = dir === 'under'
-      ? (Number.isFinite(est.p_over) ? 1 - est.p_over : null)
-      : (Number.isFinite(est.p_over) ? est.p_over : null);
+      ? (Number.isFinite(pOver) ? 1 - pOver : null)
+      : (Number.isFinite(pOver) ? pOver : null);
     if (pWin != null) legacy.p_win = Math.round(pWin * 1000) / 1000;
+    if (factorTrace) {
+      legacy.factor_adjustment = factorTrace;
+      legacy.p_win_prefactor = Math.round((dir === 'under' ? 1 - factorTrace.p_before : factorTrace.p_before) * 1000) / 1000;
+    }
 
     const sideOdds = dir === 'under' ? rawProp.under_odds : rawProp.over_odds;
 

src/services/intelligence/featureCache.js

@@ -129,7 +129,12 @@ const NBA_LOG_FIELD = {
 function mlbGameLogFeatures(res, statType) {
   if (!res || !res.found) return {};
   const out = {};
-  const logs = Array.isArray(res.last10) ? res.last10 : [];
+  // SAME WINDOW BUG AS THE BASE RATE. `l20_avg` is documented as "the season
+  // per-game reference projectionFor needs" and is read by the consistency
+  // pull — but built from last10 it was a TEN-game average wearing a season
+  // label. fullLog is already in this same response, so widening is free.
+  const logs = (Array.isArray(res.fullLog) && res.fullLog.length)
+    ? res.fullLog : (Array.isArray(res.last10) ? res.last10 : []);
   const vals = logs.map((g) => mlbStatValue(g.stat, statType)).filter((v) => v != null);
   if (vals.length) {
     const m5 = avg(vals.slice(-5)); // game logs are chronological (recent last)
@@ -278,7 +283,22 @@ async function getStatRows(playerName, sport, statType) {
     if (sp === 'mlb') {
       const mlbStats = require('../adapters/mlbStatsAdapter');
       const res = await mlbStats.getPlayerStats(playerName);
-      const logs = (res && res.found && Array.isArray(res.last10)) ? res.last10 : [];
+      // THE FULL SEASON LOG, NOT last10.
+      //
+      // This is the one line that made the champion worse than a frequency
+      // table. `estimateProbability` computes its base rate as the frequency
+      // over EVERY row it is given, so feeding it ten games meant the "season
+      // rate" was a ten-game rate — and then 0.4 of the forecast was the last
+      // five OF THOSE TEN. Measured point-in-time, a true season frequency
+      // out-resolved the served champion on all four stats (hits 0.00774 vs
+      // 0.00251, rbi 0.03133 vs 0.02481).
+      //
+      // `fullLog` is already fetched in the same adapter call that produced
+      // last10, so this costs nothing: no extra request, no new dependency.
+      const logs = (res && res.found)
+        ? (Array.isArray(res.fullLog) && res.fullLog.length ? res.fullLog
+          : (Array.isArray(res.last10) ? res.last10 : []))
+        : [];
       // MLB logs are chronological (most recent LAST) — reverse to match.
       for (const g of [...logs].reverse()) push(g && g.date, mlbStatValue(g && g.stat, statType));
       return rows;

src/services/intelligence/probabilityEstimator.js

@@ -17,6 +17,19 @@
  */
 
 const CV_VOLATILE_THRESHOLD = 0.40;
+/**
+ * How much of the forecast is the last five games.
+ *
+ * Was 0.40. Measured point-in-time against a fair season-frequency baseline, a
+ * 0.40 weight COST resolution on every stat — hits −0.00086, total_bases
+ * −0.00107, rbi −0.00562, runs −0.00365 — because five games is a very noisy
+ * read and the blend pulled the forecast off a better number.
+ *
+ * 0.20 was the best measured weight on hits and total_bases; rbi and runs
+ * preferred 0 outright. It is set at the value the evidence supports rather
+ * than at the value that flatters recency.
+ */
+const RECENCY_WEIGHT = 0.20;
 const PROB_FLOOR = 0.10;
 const PROB_CEIL = 0.95;
 
@@ -68,7 +81,7 @@ function estimateProbability({ gameLogs = [], line, statType, features = {} } =
   const recent = values.slice(0, Math.min(5, values.length));
   const recencyRate = frequencyOver(recent, numericLine);
   const weighted = recencyRate != null
-    ? 0.6 * base + 0.4 * recencyRate
+    ? (1 - RECENCY_WEIGHT) * base + RECENCY_WEIGHT * recencyRate
     : base;
 
   let p = weighted;

src/services/intelligence/trapDetection.js

@@ -141,11 +141,11 @@ function signalRecencyInflation(input) {
     return inactive('l5_avg or l20_avg missing');
   }
   const ratio = (l5 - l20) / l20;
-  if (ratio <= 0) return { score: 0, active: true, explanation: 'L5 not hotter than L20' };
+  if (ratio <= 0) return { score: 0, active: true, explanation: 'L5 not hotter than season' };
   return {
     score: Math.min(1.0, ratio),
     active: true,
-    explanation: `L5 (${l5.toFixed(1)}) ${(ratio * 100).toFixed(0)}% above L20 (${l20.toFixed(1)})`,
+    explanation: `L5 (${l5.toFixed(1)}) ${(ratio * 100).toFixed(0)}% above season (${l20.toFixed(1)})`,
   };
 }
 

src/services/model/calibrationDuel.js

@@ -0,0 +1,125 @@
+'use strict';
+
+/**
+ * calibrationDuel — the forward adjudication of a bet we made against the
+ * measurement.
+ *
+ * On identical held-out rows the ISOTONIC map beat the low-parameter one (hits
+ * +0.0028, rbi +0.0042, total_bases tied). We serve the low-parameter map
+ * anyway, on the argument that isotonic's in-window edge is daily structure
+ * shared between the fit and evaluation windows. At 19 dates that argument
+ * cannot be tested — LODO has 1.4-9.3% power against it.
+ *
+ * So it is a BET. This module is what makes it falsifiable: both maps are
+ * computed on every prop, the shadow is logged, and once enough genuinely
+ * out-of-window dates settle, the season adjudicates.
+ *
+ * ── THE RULE IS PRE-REGISTERED, IN CODE ──────────────────────────────────
+ * Written before any forward date exists, so the bar cannot drift toward
+ * whichever answer arrives:
+ *
+ *   REFUTED   >=10 forward dates AND isotonic beats low-param with a date-block
+ *             bootstrap CI excluding zero  ->  revert hits/TB to isotonic
+ *   UPHELD    >=10 forward dates and it does not  ->  the bet was right
+ *   PENDING   fewer than 10 forward dates          ->  no verdict, keep serving
+ *
+ * A date is FORWARD only if NEITHER map was fitted on it. Scoring on a date
+ * inside either fit window would be asking which map memorised better.
+ */
+
+const { knownNumber } = require('../../utils/known');
+
+/** Forward dates required before the duel may return a verdict. */
+const MIN_FORWARD_DATES = 10;
+const ITERS = 4000;
+
+const mean = (xs) => (xs.length ? xs.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / xs.length : null);
+
+function makeRnd(seed) {
+  let s = seed >>> 0;
+  return () => { s ^= s << 13; s >>>= 0; s ^= s >>> 17; s ^= s << 5; s >>>= 0; return s / 4294967296; };
+}
+
+const brier = (rows, key) => {
+  const usable = rows.filter((r) => knownNumber(r[key]) !== null && knownNumber(r.won) !== null);
+  if (!usable.length) return null;
+  return mean(usable.map((r) => (knownNumber(r[key]) - knownNumber(r.won)) ** 2));
+};
+
+/**
+ * @param {Array} rows [{ date, won, served, shadow, fitted_through }]
+ * @param {object} opts { minForwardDates, seed }
+ */
+function adjudicate(rows, opts = {}) {
+  const minDates = opts.minForwardDates ?? MIN_FORWARD_DATES;
+
+  // FORWARD ONLY: a row counts when its date postdates the window BOTH maps
+  // were fitted on. Rows without that provenance are dropped, never assumed.
+  const forward = (rows || []).filter((r) => {
+    if (!r || !r.date) return false;
+    if (knownNumber(r.served) === null || knownNumber(r.shadow) === null) return false;
+    if (knownNumber(r.won) === null) return false;
+    if (!r.fitted_through) return false;
+    return String(r.date) > String(r.fitted_through);
+  });
+
+  const dates = [...new Set(forward.map((r) => String(r.date)))].sort();
+  if (dates.length < minDates) {
+    return {
+      verdict: 'PENDING',
+      forward_dates: dates.length,
+      forward_rows: forward.length,
+      dates_needed: minDates - dates.length,
+      reason: `${dates.length} forward dates < ${minDates} — the season has not spoken yet`,
+      action: 'keep serving the low-parameter map',
+    };
+  }
+
+  const bServed = brier(forward, 'served');
+  const bShadow = brier(forward, 'shadow');
+  if (bServed === null || bShadow === null) {
+    return { verdict: 'PENDING', forward_dates: dates.length, reason: 'no scorable forward rows' };
+  }
+
+  // Paired date-block bootstrap on (isotonic - lowparam). Negative means the
+  // shadow is better, which is the direction that refutes us.
+  const byDate = new Map();
+  for (const r of forward) {
+    if (!byDate.has(String(r.date))) byDate.set(String(r.date), []);
+    byDate.get(String(r.date)).push(r);
+  }
+  const keys = [...byDate.keys()];
+  const rnd = makeRnd(opts.seed ?? 20260807);
+  const diffs = [];
+  for (let it = 0; it < ITERS; it += 1) {
+    const s = [];
+    for (let i = 0; i < keys.length; i += 1) s.push(...byDate.get(keys[Math.floor(rnd() * keys.length)]));
+    const a = brier(s, 'shadow');
+    const b = brier(s, 'served');
+    if (a === null || b === null) continue;
+    diffs.push(a - b);
+  }
+  diffs.sort((a, b) => a - b);
+  const ci = diffs.length
+    ? [round5(diffs[Math.floor(diffs.length * 0.025)]), round5(diffs[Math.floor(diffs.length * 0.975)])]
+    : null;
+
+  const shadowWins = ci !== null && ci[1] < 0;
+  return {
+    verdict: shadowWins ? 'REFUTED' : 'UPHELD',
+    forward_dates: dates.length,
+    forward_rows: forward.length,
+    brier_served_lowparam: round5(bServed),
+    brier_shadow_isotonic: round5(bShadow),
+    delta_isotonic_minus_lowparam: round5(bShadow - bServed),
+    ci,
+    reason: shadowWins
+      ? 'isotonic beats the served low-parameter map out-of-window with a date-block interval excluding zero — the capacity argument is refuted'
+      : 'the served low-parameter map is not beaten out-of-window — the bet stands',
+    action: shadowWins ? 'REVERT hits and total_bases to isotonic and log the reversal' : 'keep serving the low-parameter map',
+  };
+}
+
+const round5 = (v) => (v == null || !Number.isFinite(v) ? null : Math.round(v * 100000) / 100000);
+
+module.exports = { adjudicate, MIN_FORWARD_DATES };

src/services/model/calibrationGuards.js

@@ -0,0 +1,146 @@
+'use strict';
+
+/**
+ * calibrationGuards — the two ways a calibration measurement lies to you.
+ *
+ * Both of these produced a confident, plausible, completely wrong number in the
+ * settlement session, and neither was visible in the output. They are codified
+ * here so the failure cannot recur silently.
+ *
+ * ── GUARD 1: THE BOTH-SIDES TELL ─────────────────────────────────────────
+ * A prop population usually carries BOTH the over and the under. Their p_wins
+ * sum to ~1 and their outcomes are complementary, so ANY population-level
+ * calibration statistic over the raw set is pinned to 0.5 by construction — not
+ * by the model being calibrated.
+ *
+ * Measured: the raw population read +0.0002 bias on hits ("perfectly
+ * calibrated"); deduped to the model-picked side it read +0.0868. Same rows,
+ * opposite conclusion. The tell was mean p_win sitting at 0.4998 on all four
+ * stats at once, which is not something a real forecaster does.
+ *
+ * So picked-side dedup is MANDATORY preprocessing, and this asserts it.
+ *
+ * ── GUARD 2: A NULL THAT SCORES ITSELF ───────────────────────────────────
+ * `fitIsotonic` returns null below its minimum and `applyIsotonic` then returns
+ * null per row. In JavaScript `(null - 1) ** 2 === 1` and `(null - 0) ** 2 === 0`,
+ * so a Brier score computed over nulls silently equals the WIN RATE — a number
+ * in the right range, monotone in the data, and completely meaningless. It
+ * reported hits at 0.5567 against a 0.5684 win rate.
+ *
+ * This is the `Number(null) === 0` breach the TRUTH LAW names, wearing a metric.
+ * A null prediction must refuse, never score.
+ */
+
+const { knownNumber } = require('../../utils/known');
+
+/** How close to 0.5 counts as the both-sides signature. */
+const BALANCED_TOLERANCE = 0.02;
+
+/**
+ * Does this population still contain both sides of the same prop?
+ *
+ * @param {Array} rows  [{ p, side, propKey }]
+ * @returns {object} { violated, reason, ... } — never throws, so a caller can
+ *                   decide between refusing and hard-failing.
+ */
+function checkPickedSideDedup(rows) {
+  const usable = (rows || []).filter((r) => knownNumber(r && r.p) !== null);
+  if (usable.length < 2) return { violated: false, reason: 'too few rows to judge', n: usable.length };
+
+  const sidesByProp = new Map();
+  for (const r of usable) {
+    const k = r.propKey == null ? null : String(r.propKey);
+    if (k === null) continue;
+    if (!sidesByProp.has(k)) sidesByProp.set(k, new Set());
+    if (r.side) sidesByProp.get(k).add(String(r.side).toLowerCase());
+  }
+  let bothSides = 0;
+  for (const s of sidesByProp.values()) if (s.size > 1) bothSides += 1;
+  const propCount = sidesByProp.size;
+  const bothShare = propCount ? bothSides / propCount : 0;
+
+  const meanP = usable.reduce((s, r) => s + knownNumber(r.p), 0) / usable.length;
+  const balanced = Math.abs(meanP - 0.5) <= BALANCED_TOLERANCE;
+
+  // The violation is the CONJUNCTION: both sides present AND the mean pinned at
+  // 0.5. Either alone is unremarkable — a genuinely balanced book of one-sided
+  // picks is fine, and both sides present with a skewed mean means someone
+  // already deduped.
+  const violated = bothSides > 0 && balanced;
+  return {
+    violated,
+    n: usable.length,
+    props: propCount,
+    both_sides_props: bothSides,
+    both_sides_share: round4(bothShare),
+    mean_p: round4(meanP),
+    reason: violated
+      ? `both sides present on ${bothSides}/${propCount} props while mean p_win is ${round4(meanP)} — `
+        + 'the population is balanced by construction and any calibration statistic over it is meaningless. '
+        + 'Dedup to the model-picked side first.'
+      : null,
+  };
+}
+
+/** Same check, but refuses to continue. Use at the top of a measurement. */
+function assertPickedSideDedup(rows) {
+  const r = checkPickedSideDedup(rows);
+  if (r.violated) throw new Error(`CALIBRATION GUARD: ${r.reason}`);
+  return r;
+}
+
+/**
+ * Brier score that refuses rather than scoring a null.
+ *
+ * @param {Array} preds
+ * @param {Array} outcomes
+ * @param {object} opts  { onNull: 'throw' | 'refuse' }  default 'refuse'
+ * @returns {number|null} null when any prediction is unreadable
+ */
+function safeBrier(preds, outcomes, opts = {}) {
+  const ps = preds || [];
+  const ys = outcomes || [];
+  if (ps.length === 0 || ps.length !== ys.length) return null;
+  let sum = 0;
+  for (let i = 0; i < ps.length; i += 1) {
+    const p = knownNumber(ps[i]);
+    const y = knownNumber(ys[i]);
+    if (p === null || y === null) {
+      // NEVER score it. (null - 1) ** 2 === 1 would pass silently.
+      if (opts.onNull === 'throw') {
+        throw new Error('CALIBRATION GUARD: a null prediction reached a Brier term');
+      }
+      return null;
+    }
+    sum += (p - y) ** 2;
+  }
+  return sum / ps.length;
+}
+
+/**
+ * Map a population through a calibration map, refusing unreadable rows rather
+ * than letting them through as nulls.
+ */
+function applyOrRefuse(map, rows, applyFn) {
+  if (!map) return { ok: false, reason: 'no calibration map could be fitted', rows: [] };
+  const out = [];
+  let dropped = 0;
+  for (const r of rows || []) {
+    const pc = applyFn(map, r.p);
+    if (knownNumber(pc) === null) { dropped += 1; continue; }
+    out.push({ ...r, pc });
+  }
+  return {
+    ok: out.length > 0,
+    rows: out,
+    dropped,
+    reason: out.length === 0 ? 'every row was unmappable' : null,
+  };
+}
+
+const round4 = (v) => (v == null || !Number.isFinite(v) ? null : Math.round(v * 10000) / 10000);
+
+module.exports = {
+  checkPickedSideDedup, assertPickedSideDedup, safeBrier, applyOrRefuse,
+  BALANCED_TOLERANCE,
+};

src/services/model/calibrationRegistry.js

@@ -0,0 +1,163 @@
+'use strict';
+
+/**
+ * calibrationRegistry — which stats are allowed to serve a calibrated number.
+ *
+ * ── WHY THIS IS NOT THE FACTOR REGISTRY ──────────────────────────────────
+ * A factor makes a CAUSAL claim, so it needs a Bonferroni slot, a cluster-robust
+ * interval, and a bar that rises with every hypothesis the programme tests.
+ * Calibration makes no causal claim: it is a monotone shrink toward what was
+ * actually observed, its failure mode is bounded (it can only over- or
+ * under-shrink), and it consumes no test slot.
+ *
+ * Applying the factor gate's >=40 date-cluster interval floor to it was the
+ * wrong instrument. The real risk for a calibration layer is that the correction
+ * is DATE-DRIVEN, and leave-one-date-out tests that directly — and harder.
+ *
+ * ── TWO TIERS, AND AUTO-DEMOTION IS WHAT MAKES PROVISIONAL HONEST ────────
+ *   PROVISIONAL  LODO passes AND the point-in-time held-out CI excludes zero.
+ *                Serves, labelled, inside its certified band only.
+ *   PROMOTED     the original >=40 date-cluster bar, now correctly scoped as the
+ *                PROMOTION bar rather than the deploy bar.
+ *
+ * A provisional deploy that cannot be taken away is just a deploy. `reverify`
+ * runs on every newly settled date and demotes on the first breach.
+ */
+
+const { knownNumber } = require('../../utils/known');
+
+const STATUS = Object.freeze({ NONE: 'none', PROVISIONAL: 'provisional', PROMOTED: 'promoted' });
+
+/**
+ * THE LODO TEST — a COHERENT pair, replacing the incoherent one at 1f40014.
+ *
+ * ── WHAT WAS WRONG ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+ * The previous gate paired a 1-SE per-drop informativeness bar with a
+ * ZERO-reversal decision rule. At exactly 1 SE a genuinely STABLE stat's drop
+ * reverses with probability Phi(-1) = 0.159, so on four informative drops the
+ * chance of at least one reversal is 1 - 0.841^4 = 0.50. The rule failed stable
+ * stats half the time BY CONSTRUCTION. And n* was pooled across four stats whose
+ * signed effects differ several-fold, so one number meant four different things:
+ * measured, the pooled 70 was too LOW for hits (77) and runs (81) and too HIGH
+ * for total_bases (60) and rbi (54).
+ *
+ * ── THE COHERENT PAIR ────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+ * The bar and the rule are chosen TOGETHER, per stat, for a stated error rate:
+ *
+ *   informative bar   n*_k = k^2 * (sigma_row / |g|)^2      per stat
+ *   decision rule     FAIL iff reversals > cutoff, where under stability
+ *                     R ~ Binomial(D, Phi(-k)) and cutoff is the smallest c
+ *                     with P(R > c) <= 0.05
+ *
+ * `g` is the mean SIGNED per-row improvement — the quantity whose sign a
+ * reversal flips. k = 1 is chosen because it maximises informative drops (D),
+ * which is the binding scarcity here, while the binomial cutoff holds the
+ * false-positive rate at 0.004-0.031 across the four stats.
+ *
+ * ── AND THE TEST STILL HAS ALMOST NO POWER ───────────────────────────────
+ * At the stated alternative (date-to-date SD of the effect equal to |g| — a
+ * strong instability), power is 0.093 / 0.093 / 0.045 / 0.014. The test would
+ * MISS a real date-driven failure more than nine times in ten. Across every k
+ * examined, the best any stat reaches is 0.337.
+ *
+ * So a PASS here means "no instability was detected", NOT "it is stable", and a
+ * gate that cannot fail is not a gate. LODO_POWER_FLOOR makes that structural: a
+ * stat whose test power falls below it is UNTESTABLE-BY-LODO and may not claim
+ * LODO stability at all, whatever its reversal count.
+ *
+ * Derived BLIND — the derivation script prints no reversal, no verdict and no
+ * reversing date. It ran, and these were committed, before any stat was re-read.
+ */
+const LODO_K = 1.0;
+/** Below this power the test cannot fail, so it cannot pass either. */
+const LODO_POWER_FLOOR = 0.50;
+/** Per-stat, from (g, sigma_row) measured blind. */
+const LODO_TEST = Object.freeze({
+  hits:        { g: -0.01288, sigma_row: 0.11251, n_star: 77, informative_drops: 5, cutoff: 2, fp: 0.0310, power: 0.093 },
+  total_bases: { g: -0.01380, sigma_row: 0.10680, n_star: 60, informative_drops: 5, cutoff: 2, fp: 0.0310, power: 0.093 },
+  rbi:         { g: -0.00884, sigma_row: 0.06459, n_star: 54, informative_drops: 4, cutoff: 2, fp: 0.0141, power: 0.045 },
+  runs:        { g: -0.00902, sigma_row: 0.08080, n_star: 81, informative_drops: 3, cutoff: 2, fp: 0.0040, power: 0.014 },
+});
+/** Legacy name kept so nothing silently reads a stale pooled value. */
+const LODO_MIN_HELD_ROWS = null;
+/** The ORIGINAL floor, correctly scoped: promotion, not deploy. */
+const PROMOTION_DATE_CLUSTERS = 40;
+
+function createRegistry(initial = {}) {
+  const state = new Map(Object.entries(initial));
+  const log = [];
+
+  /** Deploy requires BOTH gates. Neither can be waived. */
+  function deploy(stat, evidence = {}) {
+    const lodo = evidence.lodo_pass === true;
+    const ci = Array.isArray(evidence.ci) && evidence.ci.length === 2 && evidence.ci[1] < 0;
+    if (!lodo || !ci) {
+      return {
+        ok: false,
+        status: STATUS.NONE,
+        reason: !lodo
+          ? 'LODO did not pass — the correction may be date-driven'
+          : 'the point-in-time held-out interval does not exclude zero',
+      };
+    }
+    if (!evidence.map) return { ok: false, status: STATUS.NONE, reason: 'no calibration map supplied' };
+
+    state.set(stat, {
+      status: STATUS.PROVISIONAL,
+      map: evidence.map,
+      certified_bands: evidence.certified_bands || [],
+      date_clusters: knownNumber(evidence.date_clusters) ?? 0,
+      ci: evidence.ci,
+      deployed_at: evidence.at || null,
+    });
+    log.push({ stat, event: 'deployed_provisional', at: evidence.at || null });
+    return { ok: true, status: STATUS.PROVISIONAL };
+  }
+
+  /**
+   * Re-verify on a newly settled date. Demotes on the FIRST breach — either the
+   * interval ceasing to exclude zero, or the favourite over-prediction flipping
+   * sign (which would mean the correction is now pushing the wrong way).
+   */
+  function reverify(stat, obs = {}) {
+    const cur = state.get(stat);
+    if (!cur || cur.status === STATUS.NONE) return { status: STATUS.NONE, changed: false };
+
+    const ciHolds = Array.isArray(obs.ci) && obs.ci.length === 2 && obs.ci[1] < 0;
+    const signHolds = obs.favourite_bias == null ? true : knownNumber(obs.favourite_bias) > 0;
+
+    if (!ciHolds || !signHolds) {
+      state.set(stat, { status: STATUS.NONE, demoted_at: obs.date || null, demoted_reason: !ciHolds ? 'ci_no_longer_excludes_zero' : 'favourite_bias_flipped' });
+      log.push({ stat, event: 'auto_demoted', at: obs.date || null, reason: !ciHolds ? 'ci_no_longer_excludes_zero' : 'favourite_bias_flipped' });
+      return { status: STATUS.NONE, changed: true, reason: !ciHolds ? 'ci_no_longer_excludes_zero' : 'favourite_bias_flipped', breaking_date: obs.date || null };
+    }
+
+    // PROMOTION uses the original floor, now correctly scoped.
+    const dc = knownNumber(obs.date_clusters) ?? cur.date_clusters;
+    if (cur.status === STATUS.PROVISIONAL && dc >= PROMOTION_DATE_CLUSTERS) {
+      state.set(stat, { ...cur, status: STATUS.PROMOTED, date_clusters: dc, promoted_at: obs.date || null });
+      log.push({ stat, event: 'promoted', at: obs.date || null, date_clusters: dc });
+      return { status: STATUS.PROMOTED, changed: true };
+    }
+    if (dc !== cur.date_clusters) state.set(stat, { ...cur, date_clusters: dc });
+    return { status: cur.status, changed: false };
+  }
+
+  /** Is this stat allowed to serve a calibrated number for THIS p_win? */
+  function serves(stat, p) {
+    const cur = state.get(stat);
+    if (!cur || cur.status === STATUS.NONE) return { serve: false, reason: 'not deployed' };
+    const x = knownNumber(p);
+    if (x === null) return { serve: false, reason: 'no p_win' };
+    const inBand = (cur.certified_bands || []).some((b) => x >= b[0] && x < b[1]);
+    if (!inBand) return { serve: false, reason: 'outside the certified band', status: cur.status };
+    return { serve: true, status: cur.status, provisional: cur.status === STATUS.PROVISIONAL };
+  }
+
+  const get = (stat) => state.get(stat) || { status: STATUS.NONE };
+  const all = () => Object.fromEntries([...state.entries()].map(([k, v]) => [k, { status: v.status, certified_bands: v.certified_bands, date_clusters: v.date_clusters }]));
+
+  return { deploy, reverify, serves, get, all, log: () => log.slice() };
+}
+
+module.exports = { createRegistry, STATUS, PROMOTION_DATE_CLUSTERS, LODO_K, LODO_TEST, LODO_POWER_FLOOR, LODO_MIN_HELD_ROWS };

src/services/model/factorGate.js

@@ -40,7 +40,24 @@ const { knownNumber } = require('../../utils/known');
 
 /** Minimum mean |Δp| for a factor to count as having moved anything at all. */
 const MIN_MOVEMENT = 0.01;
+/** Observations needed for the effect ESTIMATE to be stable. */
 const MIN_N = 500;
+/**
+ * Clusters needed for the cluster-robust INTERVAL to be trustworthy.
+ *
+ * These two floors answer different questions and must not be collapsed. Rows
+ * govern whether the point estimate is stable; clusters govern whether the
+ * interval around it means anything. Transplanting the 500-row bar onto clusters
+ * refuses a factor measured over 1,059 rows and 85 games — which has ample
+ * observations AND ample clusters — while telling us nothing about either.
+ *
+ * 40 is the conventional floor below which cluster-robust inference is known to
+ * under-cover regardless of how many rows sit inside the clusters. It is a
+ * statement about when the bootstrap can be believed, not a bar tuned to let
+ * anything through: a venue-constant factor still caps at 30 ballparks and is
+ * still refused, permanently.
+ */
+const MIN_CLUSTERS = 40;
 
 const brier = (ps, ys) => (ps.length
   ? ps.reduce((s, p, i) => s + (p - ys[i]) ** 2, 0) / ps.length : null);
@@ -92,11 +109,41 @@ function improvement(rows, iters = 4000, seed = 20260805, cumulativeTests = 1) {
   if (usable.length < 30) return null;
   const rnd = makeRnd(seed);
   const diffs = [];
+
+  // ── PSEUDO-REPLICATION ────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+  // A factor that assigns ONE value per game (park, weather, opposing starter)
+  // gives every prop row in that game the identical treatment. Resampling ROWS
+  // then treats 18 hitters in one ballpark as 18 independent readings of that
+  // ballpark, and the interval collapses to a width the evidence never earned —
+  // so the gate PASSES a factor on sample it does not have. Measured here: 928
+  // total_bases rows carry only 53 distinct games.
+  //
+  // When rows carry a `cluster`, resample whole clusters. The interval then
+  // reflects the unit the treatment actually varies over. Rows without a
+  // cluster keep the original row-resampling path byte-for-byte.
+  const clustered = usable.some((r) => r.cluster != null);
+  const groups = new Map();
+  if (clustered) {
+    for (const r of usable) {
+      const k = String(r.cluster);
+      if (!groups.has(k)) groups.set(k, []);
+      groups.get(k).push(r);
+    }
+  }
+  const keys = clustered ? [...groups.keys()] : null;
+
   for (let it = 0; it < iters; it += 1) {
     const b = []; const c = []; const y = [];
-    for (let i = 0; i < usable.length; i += 1) {
-      const r = usable[Math.floor(rnd() * usable.length)];
-      b.push(r.baseline); c.push(r.conditioned); y.push(r.won > 0 ? 1 : 0);
+    if (clustered) {
+      for (let i = 0; i < keys.length; i += 1) {
+        const g = groups.get(keys[Math.floor(rnd() * keys.length)]);
+        for (const r of g) { b.push(r.baseline); c.push(r.conditioned); y.push(r.won > 0 ? 1 : 0); }
+      }
+    } else {
+      for (let i = 0; i < usable.length; i += 1) {
+        const r = usable[Math.floor(rnd() * usable.length)];
+        b.push(r.baseline); c.push(r.conditioned); y.push(r.won > 0 ? 1 : 0);
+      }
     }
     diffs.push(brier(c, y) - brier(b, y));
   }
@@ -113,6 +160,9 @@ function improvement(rows, iters = 4000, seed = 20260805, cumulativeTests = 1) {
   const ys = usable.map((r) => (r.won > 0 ? 1 : 0));
   return {
     n: usable.length,
+    // The number the gate must actually judge sample against.
+    effective_n: clustered ? keys.length : usable.length,
+    cluster_unit: clustered ? 'cluster' : 'row',
     brier_baseline: round4(brier(usable.map((r) => r.baseline), ys)),
     brier_conditioned: round4(brier(usable.map((r) => r.conditioned), ys)),
     brier_delta: round4(brier(usable.map((r) => r.conditioned), ys) - brier(usable.map((r) => r.baseline), ys)),
@@ -138,9 +188,22 @@ function adjudicate(rows, opts = {}) {
 
   const base = { factor: opts.factor || null, archetype: opts.archetype || null, stat: opts.stat || 'hits', movement: mv, improvement: imp };
 
+  // TWO FLOORS, because they answer different questions. Rows decide whether the
+  // point estimate is stable; clusters decide whether the interval around it can
+  // be believed. A factor needs both.
   if (mv.n < minN) {
     return { ...base, verdict: 'CANDIDATE_PENDING_SAMPLE', reason: `n ${mv.n} < ${minN}`, rows_needed: minN - mv.n };
   }
+  const minClusters = opts.minClusters ?? MIN_CLUSTERS;
+  if (imp && imp.cluster_unit === 'cluster' && imp.effective_n < minClusters) {
+    return {
+      ...base,
+      verdict: 'CANDIDATE_PENDING_SAMPLE',
+      reason: `${mv.n} rows but only ${imp.effective_n} independent clusters < ${minClusters}`
+        + ' — the rows are not independent readings and the interval cannot be trusted at this cluster count',
+      clusters_needed: minClusters - imp.effective_n,
+    };
+  }
   if (mv.mean_abs_shift === null || mv.mean_abs_shift < minMove) {
     // It never moved the number, so it cannot be reading anything.
     return { ...base, verdict: 'INERT', reason: `mean |shift| ${mv.mean_abs_shift} < ${minMove}` };
@@ -176,4 +239,5 @@ function adjudicate(rows, opts = {}) {
 
 const round4 = (v) => (v == null || !Number.isFinite(v) ? null : Math.round(v * 10000) / 10000);
 
-module.exports = { movement, improvement, adjudicate, MIN_MOVEMENT, MIN_N };
+module.exports = {
+  MIN_CLUSTERS, movement, improvement, adjudicate, MIN_MOVEMENT, MIN_N };

src/services/model/gradeBands.js

@@ -0,0 +1,235 @@
+'use strict';
+
+/**
+ * gradeBands — WHAT DOES A LETTER MEAN, PER ARCHETYPE, AND WHO SAYS SO?
+ *
+ * A grade is the product. So a letter has to be backed by a realized rate the
+ * ledger can stand behind — not by a threshold someone chose. This builds bands
+ * from settled outcomes, per archetype, and refuses to publish any band the
+ * evidence cannot support.
+ *
+ * ── LIFT, NOT RAW RATE ────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+ * An A must beat the archetype's OWN naive base rate. A power hitter and a
+ * contact hitter have different base rates for a hit, so the same 62% realized
+ * rate is a strong read for one and slightly below water for the other. Bands
+ * are therefore drawn where the realized rate SEPARATES from that archetype's
+ * base rate, and a band whose interval still contains the base rate has shown no
+ * lift — whatever its raw number looks like.
+ *
+ * ── THE TWO-BAR RULE IS STRUCTURAL, NOT A HABIT ───────────────────────────
+ * A band may be described as FACTOR-INFORMED only when that archetype's factors
+ * are both PROVEN and CALIBRATED. There is no argument that overrides it: the
+ * caller passes evidence, and without it every band comes back `basis:
+ * 'base_rate'` and says so. A test asserts that with nothing proven — which is
+ * the state today — no factor-informed band can be produced at all.
+ *
+ * This is the same shape as featureRegistry.liveFeatures(): the honest state is
+ * the DEFAULT, and the richer claim has to be earned past a gate, so it cannot
+ * be reached by forgetting.
+ *
+ * ── WHY A BAND CAN BE REFUSED ─────────────────────────────────────────────
+ * Thin bands are labelled PROVISIONAL rather than dropped, because "we are still
+ * counting" and "there is nothing here" are different claims. But a band whose
+ * corrected interval spans the base rate does NOT get a lift letter — it is
+ * reported as the base-rate read it is.
+ */
+
+const { knownNumber } = require('../../utils/known');
+
+/** Below this a band is published but flagged — counting, not concluded. */
+const PROVISIONAL_N = 30;
+/** Below this a band is not published at all; there is nothing to stand behind. */
+const MIN_BAND_N = 12;
+/** Letters, richest first. Assigned by measured lift, never by curve. */
+const LETTERS = ['A', 'B', 'C', 'D', 'F'];
+
+/**
+ * Wilson score interval, widened by the cumulative correction.
+ *
+ * Wilson rather than normal-approximation because these bands are small and
+ * rates sit near the edges, where the normal interval runs past 0 and 1 and
+ * quietly implies impossible rates.
+ */
+function wilson(hits, n, cumulativeTests = 1) {
+  const k = knownNumber(hits); const N = knownNumber(n);
+  if (k === null || N === null || N <= 0) return null;
+  const tests = Math.max(1, Math.round(knownNumber(cumulativeTests) ?? 1));
+  const z = zFor(1 - (0.05 / tests) / 2);
+  const p = k / N;
+  const d = 1 + (z * z) / N;
+  const centre = (p + (z * z) / (2 * N)) / d;
+  const half = (z * Math.sqrt((p * (1 - p)) / N + (z * z) / (4 * N * N))) / d;
+  return [round4(Math.max(0, centre - half)), round4(Math.min(1, centre + half))];
+}
+
+/** Inverse normal CDF (Acklam) — good to ~1e-9, enough for an interval bound. */
+function zFor(p) {
+  if (p <= 0 || p >= 1) return 0;
+  const a = [-3.969683028665376e+01, 2.209460984245205e+02, -2.759285104469687e+02,
+    1.383577518672690e+02, -3.066479806614716e+01, 2.506628277459239e+00];
+  const b = [-5.447609879822406e+01, 1.615858368580409e+02, -1.556989798598866e+02,
+    6.680131188771972e+01, -1.328068155288572e+01];
+  const c = [-7.784894002430293e-03, -3.223964580411365e-01, -2.400758277161838e+00,
+    -2.549732539343734e+00, 4.374664141464968e+00, 2.938163982698783e+00];
+  const d = [7.784695709041462e-03, 3.224671290700398e-01, 2.445134137142996e+00,
+    3.754408661907416e+00];
+  const pl = 0.02425;
+  let q; let r;
+  if (p < pl) {
+    q = Math.sqrt(-2 * Math.log(p));
+    return (((((c[0] * q + c[1]) * q + c[2]) * q + c[3]) * q + c[4]) * q + c[5])
+      / ((((d[0] * q + d[1]) * q + d[2]) * q + d[3]) * q + 1);
+  }
+  if (p > 1 - pl) {
+    q = Math.sqrt(-2 * Math.log(1 - p));
+    return -(((((c[0] * q + c[1]) * q + c[2]) * q + c[3]) * q + c[4]) * q + c[5])
+      / ((((d[0] * q + d[1]) * q + d[2]) * q + d[3]) * q + 1);
+  }
+  q = p - 0.5; r = q * q;
+  return (((((a[0] * r + a[1]) * r + a[2]) * r + a[3]) * r + a[4]) * r + a[5]) * q
+    / (((((b[0] * r + b[1]) * r + b[2]) * r + b[3]) * r + b[4]) * r + 1);
+}
+
+/**
+ * Build bands for ONE archetype.
+ *
+ * @param {Array}  rows  [{ p, won }] — p is the model's probability, won 0/1
+ * @param {object} opts
+ *   opts.archetype        label
+ *   opts.cumulativeTests  Bonferroni denominator (applied to every interval)
+ *   opts.proven           this archetype's factors passed the gate
+ *   opts.calibrated       this archetype's probabilities are certified calibrated
+ *   opts.targetBands      how many bands to attempt (default 5)
+ */
+function buildBands(rows, opts = {}) {
+  const usable = (rows || []).filter((r) =>
+    knownNumber(r && r.p) !== null && knownNumber(r && r.won) !== null);
+  const n = usable.length;
+  const tests = opts.cumulativeTests ?? 1;
+
+  // THE TWO-BAR RULE. Both, or the bands are a base-rate read and say so.
+  const factorInformed = Boolean(opts.proven) && Boolean(opts.calibrated);
+
+  if (n < MIN_BAND_N) {
+    return {
+      archetype: opts.archetype || null,
+      basis: factorInformed ? 'factor_informed' : 'base_rate',
+      n,
+      base_rate: null,
+      bands: [],
+      refused: 'insufficient settled outcomes to stand behind any band',
+    };
+  }
+
+  const wins = usable.reduce((s, r) => s + (r.won > 0 ? 1 : 0), 0);
+  const baseRate = wins / n;
+
+  // Candidate cuts by quantile of the model's own probability, then merged so
+  // every published band is distinguishable from its neighbour.
+  const sorted = [...usable].sort((a, b) => b.p - a.p);
+  const target = Math.max(2, Math.min(LETTERS.length, opts.targetBands || 5));
+  const per = Math.max(MIN_BAND_N, Math.floor(n / target));
+
+  let raw = [];
+  for (let i = 0; i < sorted.length; i += per) {
+    const slice = sorted.slice(i, i + per);
+    // A trailing remainder too small to stand alone joins the previous band
+    // rather than being published as its own thin claim.
+    if (slice.length < MIN_BAND_N && raw.length) raw[raw.length - 1].push(...slice);
+    else raw.push(slice);
+  }
+
+  // Merge neighbours whose corrected intervals overlap — if we cannot tell two
+  // bands apart, publishing them as different letters is a distinction we have
+  // not measured.
+  let merged = true;
+  while (merged && raw.length > 1) {
+    merged = false;
+    for (let i = 0; i < raw.length - 1; i += 1) {
+      const a = stats(raw[i], tests); const b = stats(raw[i + 1], tests);
+      if (a.ci && b.ci && a.ci[0] <= b.ci[1] && b.ci[0] <= a.ci[1]) {
+        raw.splice(i, 2, raw[i].concat(raw[i + 1]));
+        merged = true;
+        break;
+      }
+    }
+  }
+
+  const bands = raw.map((slice, i) => {
+    const s = stats(slice, tests);
+    // LIFT: does this band's interval clear the archetype's own base rate?
+    const clearsAbove = s.ci !== null && s.ci[0] > baseRate;
+    const clearsBelow = s.ci !== null && s.ci[1] < baseRate;
+    return {
+      letter: LETTERS[Math.min(i, LETTERS.length - 1)],
+      n: slice.length,
+      p_range: [round4(Math.min(...slice.map((r) => r.p))), round4(Math.max(...slice.map((r) => r.p)))],
+      realized_rate: s.rate,
+      ci: s.ci,
+      lift_vs_archetype_base: round4(s.rate - baseRate),
+      // The claim the letter is allowed to make.
+      shows_lift: clearsAbove,
+      shows_deficit: clearsBelow,
+      separation: clearsAbove ? 'above_base_rate' : (clearsBelow ? 'below_base_rate' : 'indistinguishable_from_base_rate'),
+      provisional: slice.length < PROVISIONAL_N,
+      basis: factorInformed ? 'factor_informed' : 'base_rate',
+    };
+  });
+
+  return {
+    archetype: opts.archetype || null,
+    basis: factorInformed ? 'factor_informed' : 'base_rate',
+    // Stated explicitly so a consumer never has to infer why it is a base-rate read.
+    two_bar: {
+      proven: Boolean(opts.proven),
+      calibrated: Boolean(opts.calibrated),
+      factor_informed_allowed: factorInformed,
+      ...(factorInformed ? {} : {
+        reason: !opts.proven
+          ? 'no factor has passed the gate for this archetype'
+          : 'factors proved but this archetype\'s probabilities are not certified calibrated',
+      }),
+    },
+    n,
+    base_rate: round4(baseRate),
+    bands,
+    bonferroni_tests: Math.max(1, Math.round(knownNumber(tests) ?? 1)),
+    bands_showing_lift: bands.filter((b) => b.shows_lift).length,
+  };
+}
+
+function stats(slice, tests) {
+  const n = slice.length;
+  const w = slice.reduce((s, r) => s + (r.won > 0 ? 1 : 0), 0);
+  return { rate: round4(n ? w / n : null), ci: wilson(w, n, tests) };
+}
+
+/**
+ * The sentence attached to a grade. TRUE or absent — never a fluent fallback.
+ *
+ * A factor-informed reason names the factors that proved FOR THIS ARCHETYPE. A
+ * base-rate reason says plainly that it is a base-rate read, because a user who
+ * is told "favourable matchup" when nothing about the matchup was read has been
+ * given a fabricated reason, and that is worse than being given none.
+ */
+function reasoning(band, opts = {}) {
+  if (!band) return null;
+  const arch = opts.archetype ? String(opts.archetype).toUpperCase() : null;
+  if (band.basis === 'factor_informed') {
+    const proved = (opts.provenFactors || []).filter(Boolean);
+    if (!proved.length) return null;          // cannot name what did not prove
+    return `${arch ? `${arch}: ` : ''}${proved.join(' + ')} — proved for this profile`;
+  }
+  const sep = band.separation === 'above_base_rate'
+    ? 'above this profile\'s base rate'
+    : (band.separation === 'below_base_rate' ? 'below this profile\'s base rate' : 'at this profile\'s base rate');
+  return `${arch ? `${arch}: ` : ''}base-rate read, ${sep}`
+    + ' — no matchup factor is proven for this profile yet';
+}
+
+const round4 = (v) => (v == null || !Number.isFinite(v) ? null : Math.round(v * 10000) / 10000);
+
+module.exports = {
+  buildBands, reasoning, wilson,
+  PROVISIONAL_N, MIN_BAND_N, LETTERS,
+};

src/services/model/hitsFactorContext.js

@@ -0,0 +1,144 @@
+'use strict';
+
+/**
+ * hitsFactorContext — load the proven factors' inputs ONCE per slate.
+ *
+ * The three hits factors each need a database read (batter spray, team
+ * positional defence, platoon splits, pitcher contact profile). Doing that per
+ * prop would put four queries inside a loop that runs across the whole board, so
+ * the tables are loaded once and indexed, and the per-prop lookup is a map hit.
+ *
+ * Loaded BEFORE grading, which is the whole point of this order — the same data
+ * was previously fetched after the grade it should have informed.
+ *
+ * Every load is best-effort: a missing table yields an empty index, the factor
+ * finds nothing readable, and the forecast is served unadjusted. A factor layer
+ * must never be able to break the pipeline it rides in.
+ */
+
+const { knownNumber } = require('../../utils/known');
+const { nameKey } = require('../../utils/playerName');
+
+/** Rows a factor table must have before we trust it at all. */
+const MIN_ROWS = 1;
+
+/**
+ * Page a factor table.
+ *
+ * ORDERING IS PER-TABLE. These tables have COMPOSITE primary keys
+ * (as_of_date, sport, player_key) and NO `id` column, so ordering by `id`
+ * errors — and an error here returns an empty index, which reads exactly like
+ * "this feed has no data". That is the third time in this codebase that a
+ * wiring fault has worn the costume of an honest absence, so the error is now
+ * surfaced rather than swallowed.
+ */
+async function page(sb, table, select, orderBy, apply) {
+  const out = [];
+  for (let from = 0; ; from += 1000) {
+    const q = apply ? apply(sb.from(table).select(select)) : sb.from(table).select(select);
+    const { data, error } = await q.order(orderBy, { ascending: true }).range(from, from + 999);
+    if (error) throw new Error(`${table}: ${error.message}`);
+    if (!data || data.length === 0) break;
+    out.push(...data);
+    if (data.length < 1000) break;
+  }
+  return out;
+}
+
+/** Keep the most recent dated row per key. */
+function latestBy(rows, keyFn, dateFn) {
+  const m = new Map();
+  for (const r of rows) {
+    const k = keyFn(r);
+    if (!k) continue;
+    const prev = m.get(k);
+    if (!prev || String(dateFn(r)) > String(dateFn(prev))) m.set(k, r);
+  }
+  return m;
+}
+
+/**
+ * @returns {function|null} a `(prop, sport) => context` resolver, or null when
+ *          nothing loaded — null means "serve unadjusted", never a stub context.
+ */
+async function build(sb, opts = {}) {
+  if (!sb) return null;
+  let spray; let defense; let platoon; let statcast;
+  try {
+    [spray, defense, platoon, statcast] = await Promise.all([
+      page(sb, 'batter_spray', '*', 'player_key', (q) => q.eq('sport', 'mlb')),
+      page(sb, 'team_defense', '*', 'team', (q) => q.eq('sport', 'mlb')),
+      page(sb, 'platoon_splits', '*', 'player_key', (q) => q.eq('sport', 'mlb')),
+      page(sb, 'statcast_aggregates', 'player_key, source_id, role, bats, throws, hard_hit_pct', 'player_key', (q) => q.eq('sport', 'mlb')),
+    ]);
+  } catch (e) {
+    // Surfaced, not silent: a load failure must be distinguishable from a feed
+    // that genuinely holds nothing.
+    console.warn('[factors] context load FAILED (not an empty feed):', e.message);
+    return null;
+  }
+  if (!spray.length && !defense.length && !platoon.length) return null;
+
+  const sprayBy = latestBy(spray, (r) => r.player_key, (r) => r.as_of_date);
+  const defBy = latestBy(defense, (r) => r.team, (r) => r.as_of_date);
+  const platBy = latestBy(platoon, (r) => r.player_key, (r) => r.as_of_date);
+
+  const batBy = new Map();
+  const pitBy = new Map();
+  for (const r of statcast) {
+    if (!r.player_key) continue;
+    if (r.role === 'pitcher') pitBy.set(r.player_key, r);
+    else batBy.set(r.player_key, r);
+  }
+
+  // statcast stores PERCENTAGES (0-100); the factor wants a fraction.
+  const asFraction = (v) => {
+    const n = knownNumber(v);
+    if (n === null) return null;
+    return n > 1 ? n / 100 : n;
+  };
+
+  const resolver = (prop) => {
+    const key = nameKey(prop && prop.player);
+    if (!key) return null;
+    const bat = batBy.get(key);
+    const bats = bat && bat.bats ? String(bat.bats)[0] : null;
+
+    // The opposing team and its starter, from whatever the prop carries.
+    const oppName = prop && (prop.opponent || prop.opp_team || null);
+    const def = oppName ? (defBy.get(oppName) || defBy.get(String(oppName).split(' ').pop())) : null;
+
+    const pitKey = prop && prop.opposing_pitcher ? nameKey(prop.opposing_pitcher) : null;
+    const pit = pitKey ? pitBy.get(pitKey) : null;
+
+    const sp = platBy.get(key);
+    const splits = sp ? {
+      vl: { pa: sp.vl_pa, atBats: sp.vl_ab, hits: sp.vl_hits },
+      vr: { pa: sp.vr_pa, atBats: sp.vr_ab, hits: sp.vr_hits },
+    } : null;
+
+    const ctx = {
+      spray: sprayBy.get(key) || null,
+      positionOaa: def && def.position_oaa ? def.position_oaa : null,
+      bats,
+      throws: pit && pit.throws ? String(pit.throws)[0] : null,
+      pitcherHardHit: pit ? asFraction(pit.hard_hit_pct) : null,
+      platoonSplits: splits,
+    };
+    // Nothing readable at all -> null, so the engine skips the factor block
+    // entirely rather than walking an empty context.
+    const anything = ctx.spray || ctx.pitcherHardHit !== null || ctx.platoonSplits;
+    return anything ? ctx : null;
+  };
+
+  resolver.__stats = {
+    spray_players: sprayBy.size,
+    defense_teams: defBy.size,
+    platoon_players: platBy.size,
+    pitcher_profiles: pitBy.size,
+    batter_profiles: batBy.size,
+  };
+  return resolver;
+}
+
+module.exports = { build, MIN_ROWS };

src/services/model/hitsFactors.js

@@ -0,0 +1,127 @@
+'use strict';
+
+/**
+ * hitsFactors — the three PROVEN hits factors, applied to the forecast.
+ *
+ * These passed the two-part gate (they move the prediction AND improve
+ * out-of-sample Brier) and then sat unwired: `sprayDefense.js` and
+ * `platoonSeverity.js` were required by nothing in `src/`, and the served
+ * `p_win` read four inputs, none of them these. They were computed downstream of
+ * the grade they should inform.
+ *
+ * ── PIPELINE ORDER IS A CORRECTNESS PROPERTY ─────────────────────────────
+ *     base rate -> FACTORS -> CALIBRATE -> GRADE
+ * Calibration must always correct the factor-adjusted number. Reversing it would
+ * calibrate a forecast that is not the one served.
+ *
+ * ── EVERY UNREADABLE GUARD FROM THE ORIGINAL PROOFS SURVIVES ─────────────
+ * A factor applies only where it proved. A switch hitter has no readable spray
+ * side; a thin platoon split is refused rather than shrunk to a league guess; a
+ * pitcher with no contact profile contributes nothing. In each case the factor
+ * returns NULL and the forecast is left alone — never nudged toward a default,
+ * which would be fabricating a read from an absence.
+ */
+
+const sd = require('./sprayDefense');
+const pss = require('./platoonSeverity');
+const { knownNumber, knownRate } = require('../../utils/known');
+
+/** League mean hard-hit rate allowed; the pitcher factor is signed off this. */
+const LEAGUE_HARD_HIT = 0.389;
+/** Bound on the pitcher-contact adjustment, as proved. */
+const PITCHER_MAX = 0.15;
+/** Bound on the composed adjustment — no stack of three may run away. */
+const COMBINED_MAX = 0.25;
+
+/**
+ * A contact-allowing arm concedes better contact. Null without a profile.
+ */
+function pitcherContactMultiplier(hardHitAllowed) {
+  const h = knownRate(hardHitAllowed);
+  if (h === null) return null;
+  return 1 + Math.max(-PITCHER_MAX, Math.min(PITCHER_MAX, (h - LEAGUE_HARD_HIT) * 1.2));
+}
+
+/**
+ * Compose the three factors for one hits prop.
+ *
+ * @param {object} ctx
+ *   spray          batter_spray row (pull/straight/oppo x gb/air)
+ *   positionOaa    opposing team's per-position OAA
+ *   bats           'R' | 'L' | 'S'
+ *   throws         opposing starter's hand
+ *   pitcherHardHit opposing starter's hard-hit rate allowed
+ *   platoonSplits  { vl, vr } for this hitter
+ * @returns {object} { multiplier, applied[], skipped[] } — multiplier is 1 when
+ *                   nothing is readable, which is a no-op rather than a claim.
+ */
+function hitsFactorMultiplier(ctx = {}) {
+  const applied = [];
+  const skipped = [];
+  let mult = 1;
+
+  // ── defense_by_direction ──
+  const spray = ctx.spray;
+  const posOaa = ctx.positionOaa;
+  if (!spray || !posOaa || !ctx.bats) {
+    skipped.push({ factor: 'defense_by_direction', reason: 'no spray profile or positional defence' });
+  } else {
+    const out = sd.sprayDefenseMultiplier({ spray, bats: ctx.bats, positionOaa: posOaa });
+    if (!out || !Number.isFinite(out.multiplier)) {
+      // Switch hitters land here: he bats opposite by choice, so the SIDE of the
+      // field his contact goes to is not determined pre-game.
+      skipped.push({ factor: 'defense_by_direction', reason: 'unreadable (switch hitter or no covered zone)' });
+    } else {
+      mult *= out.multiplier;
+      applied.push({ factor: 'defense_by_direction', multiplier: round4(out.multiplier), coverage: out.coverage });
+    }
+  }
+
+  // ── pitcher_contact_profile ──
+  const pm = pitcherContactMultiplier(ctx.pitcherHardHit);
+  if (pm === null) {
+    skipped.push({ factor: 'pitcher_contact_profile', reason: 'no pitcher contact profile' });
+  } else {
+    mult *= pm;
+    applied.push({ factor: 'pitcher_contact_profile', multiplier: round4(pm) });
+  }
+
+  // ── platoon_severity ──
+  if (!ctx.platoonSplits || !ctx.bats || !ctx.throws) {
+    skipped.push({ factor: 'platoon_severity', reason: 'no splits or no pitcher hand' });
+  } else {
+    const out = pss.platoonRead({ splits: ctx.platoonSplits, bats: ctx.bats, throws: ctx.throws });
+    if (!out || !out.readable || !Number.isFinite(out.multiplier)) {
+      // A thin split is REFUSED, not shrunk — a heavily-shrunk severity is
+      // indistinguishable from a measured league-average one.
+      skipped.push({ factor: 'platoon_severity', reason: (out && out.reason) || 'unreadable split' });
+    } else {
+      mult *= out.multiplier;
+      applied.push({ factor: 'platoon_severity', multiplier: round4(out.multiplier), split: out.observed_split });
+    }
+  }
+
+  const bounded = Math.max(1 - COMBINED_MAX, Math.min(1 + COMBINED_MAX, mult));
+  return {
+    multiplier: round4(bounded),
+    unbounded: round4(mult),
+    applied,
+    skipped,
+    factors_fired: applied.length,
+  };
+}
+
+/** Apply to a probability, clamped into a usable range. Null in, null out. */
+function adjustProbability(p, ctx = {}) {
+  const raw = knownNumber(p);
+  if (raw === null) return { p_adjusted: null, ...hitsFactorMultiplier(ctx) };
+  const f = hitsFactorMultiplier(ctx);
+  return { p_adjusted: round4(Math.max(0.01, Math.min(0.99, raw * f.multiplier))), p_base: round4(raw), ...f };
+}
+
+const round4 = (v) => (v == null || !Number.isFinite(v) ? null : Math.round(v * 10000) / 10000);
+
+module.exports = {
+  hitsFactorMultiplier, adjustProbability, pitcherContactMultiplier,
+  LEAGUE_HARD_HIT, PITCHER_MAX, COMBINED_MAX,
+};

src/services/model/lowParamCalibrator.js

@@ -0,0 +1,127 @@
+'use strict';
+
+/**
+ * lowParamCalibrator — a two-parameter favourite-longshot correction.
+ *
+ * Isotonic has one free parameter per distinct prediction level, which on 19
+ * dates is far more freedom than the sample can discipline — it can and does
+ * chase a single night's structure. Platt scaling has exactly TWO parameters
+ * over the whole curve:
+ *
+ *     p_cal = sigmoid(a * logit(p) + b)
+ *
+ * `a < 1` flattens an over-confident forecaster toward the base rate, which is
+ * precisely the favourite-longshot shape measured here (over-prediction rising
+ * monotonically from -0.008 at p~0.55 to +0.245 above 0.9). Two parameters
+ * cannot represent "this Tuesday was odd", which is the entire point.
+ *
+ * ── SHRINKAGE TOWARD IDENTITY ────────────────────────────────────────────
+ * Even two parameters are fitted on few dates, so the correction is blended
+ * back toward the raw forecast by a weight tied to how many dates were seen:
+ *
+ *     w = D / (D + D0)
+ *     p_final = w * p_platt + (1 - w) * p_raw
+ *
+ * At 5 fit dates w = 0.33 — the correction is applied at a third of its fitted
+ * strength. At 40 dates it is 0.80. A thin-sample fit therefore cannot
+ * over-correct, and the blend is monotone because both inputs are.
+ *
+ * The DIRECTION of this correction is bootstrap-robust; its MAGNITUDE is
+ * thin-sample. Shrinkage is how that distinction is expressed in the number
+ * rather than only in a label.
+ */
+
+const { knownNumber } = require('../../utils/known');
+
+/** Dates at which the fit earns half its weight. */
+const SHRINK_HALF_DATES = 10;
+/** Probabilities are clamped off 0/1 before the logit. */
+const EPS = 1e-6;
+/** Below this many rows there is nothing to fit. */
+const MIN_FIT_ROWS = 100;
+/**
+ * A slope at or below this is not a correction. Ordering must be preserved and
+ * the curve must not collapse to a constant.
+ */
+const MIN_SLOPE = 0.05;
+
+const clamp01 = (p) => Math.min(1 - EPS, Math.max(EPS, p));
+const logit = (p) => Math.log(clamp01(p) / (1 - clamp01(p)));
+const sigmoid = (z) => 1 / (1 + Math.exp(-z));
+
+/**
+ * Fit `a` and `b` by Newton–Raphson on the log-likelihood. Two parameters, so
+ * this converges in a handful of steps and has no tuning of its own.
+ */
+function fitPlatt(rows, opts = {}) {
+  const pts = (rows || [])
+    .map((r) => ({ x: logit(knownNumber(r.p)), y: knownNumber(r.won) }))
+    .filter((r) => Number.isFinite(r.x) && (r.y === 0 || r.y === 1));
+  if (pts.length < (opts.minRows ?? MIN_FIT_ROWS)) return null;
+
+  let a = 1; let b = 0;
+  for (let it = 0; it < 100; it += 1) {
+    let g0 = 0; let g1 = 0; let h00 = 0; let h01 = 0; let h11 = 0;
+    for (const { x, y } of pts) {
+      const p = sigmoid(a * x + b);
+      const e = p - y;
+      const w = p * (1 - p);
+      g0 += e * x; g1 += e;
+      h00 += w * x * x; h01 += w * x; h11 += w;
+    }
+    const det = h00 * h11 - h01 * h01;
+    if (!Number.isFinite(det) || Math.abs(det) < 1e-12) break;
+    const da = (g0 * h11 - g1 * h01) / det;
+    const db = (g1 * h00 - g0 * h01) / det;
+    a -= da; b -= db;
+    if (Math.abs(da) < 1e-10 && Math.abs(db) < 1e-10) break;
+  }
+  if (!Number.isFinite(a) || !Number.isFinite(b)) return null;
+
+  // ── THE SLOPE MUST CORRECT, NOT ABANDON ────────────────────────────────
+  // `a` in (0, 1] is a flattening: ordering preserved, over-confidence pulled
+  // in. `a <= 0` INVERTS the forecast, and `a` near zero collapses the curve to
+  // a constant — the fit has decided p_win carries nothing and is predicting the
+  // base rate for everything. That lowers Brier (shrinking a miscalibrated
+  // forecaster toward its base rate always does) while destroying resolution,
+  // so it would score as a win while making the product worthless.
+  //
+  // Measured: runs fitted a = -0.032. Refused here rather than deployed.
+  if (a <= (opts.minSlope ?? MIN_SLOPE)) {
+    return { refused: true, a: round5(a), b: round5(b), reason: a <= 0
+      ? 'fitted slope is not positive — the correction would invert the forecast'
+      : 'fitted slope is near zero — the fit collapses to a constant and abandons the forecast' };
+  }
+
+  const dates = new Set((rows || []).map((r) => r.date).filter(Boolean)).size;
+  const half = opts.shrinkHalfDates ?? SHRINK_HALF_DATES;
+  const shrink = dates > 0 ? dates / (dates + half) : 0;
+
+  return {
+    a: round5(a),
+    b: round5(b),
+    fit_rows: pts.length,
+    fit_dates: dates,
+    shrinkage: round4(shrink),
+    /** Flattening a forecaster means a < 1; reported so the shape is checkable. */
+    flattens: a < 1,
+  };
+}
+
+/**
+ * Apply the fitted correction, shrunk toward the raw forecast.
+ * Returns null when unreadable — never a silently uncorrected number.
+ */
+function applyPlatt(model, p) {
+  const x = knownNumber(p);
+  if (!model || model.refused || x === null) return null;
+  const raw = clamp01(x);
+  const corrected = sigmoid(model.a * logit(raw) + model.b);
+  const w = model.shrinkage;
+  return round5(w * corrected + (1 - w) * raw);
+}
+
+const round5 = (v) => (v == null || !Number.isFinite(v) ? null : Math.round(v * 100000) / 100000);
+const round4 = (v) => (v == null || !Number.isFinite(v) ? null : Math.round(v * 10000) / 10000);
+
+module.exports = { fitPlatt, applyPlatt, SHRINK_HALF_DATES, MIN_FIT_ROWS, MIN_SLOPE, logit, sigmoid };

src/services/model/lowParamService.js

@@ -0,0 +1,102 @@
+'use strict';
+
+/**
+ * lowParamService — the production side of the two-parameter correction.
+ *
+ * Mirrors calibrationService's interface so the serving path swaps cleanly, but
+ * fits a Platt curve instead of an isotonic map. The reason for the swap is
+ * capacity, not score: on 19 dates we cannot certify the stability of a map with
+ * one free parameter per prediction level, and LODO turned out to have 1.4-9.3%
+ * power to tell us otherwise. Two parameters cannot encode "this Tuesday was
+ * odd", which is exactly the failure we cannot rule out for isotonic.
+ *
+ * Stated plainly because it is a judgement rather than a measurement: on the
+ * held-out window isotonic scored BETTER than this on hits (+0.0028) and rbi
+ * (+0.0042) and tied on total_bases. That window spans 2-4 date blocks, so it is
+ * weak evidence either way, and it is consistent with a flexible map having
+ * captured structure shared by fit and evaluation periods.
+ *
+ * Same point-in-time cut as before: fitted ONLY on games that are already over.
+ */
+
+const lp = require('./lowParamCalibrator');
+const cal = require('./calibration');
+const { knownNumber } = require('../../utils/known');
+
+const MIN_FIT = 200;
+const HOLDOUT_FRACTION = 0.35;
+
+/** Build from settled rows: fit on the older part, certify bands on the newer. */
+function build(rows, opts = {}) {
+  const clean = (rows || [])
+    .map((r) => ({ p: knownNumber(r.p), won: knownNumber(r.won), date: String(r.date || '') }))
+    .filter((r) => r.p !== null && (r.won === 0 || r.won === 1))
+    .sort((a, b) => a.date.localeCompare(b.date));
+  if (clean.length < (opts.minFit ?? MIN_FIT)) return null;
+
+  const cut = Math.floor(clean.length * (1 - (opts.holdout ?? HOLDOUT_FRACTION)));
+  const fitRows = clean.slice(0, cut);
+  const certRows = clean.slice(cut);
+  if (fitRows.length < (opts.minFit ?? MIN_FIT) || certRows.length < 50) return null;
+
+  const model = lp.fitPlatt(fitRows, opts);
+  // A refused fit (inverting or collapsed slope) yields no calibrator at all.
+  if (!model || model.refused) return null;
+
+  const corrected = certRows
+    .map((r) => ({ ...r, p: lp.applyPlatt(model, r.p) }))
+    .filter((r) => knownNumber(r.p) !== null);
+  const bands = cal.certifyBands(corrected, {
+    tolerance: opts.tolerance ?? 0.05,
+    minBin: opts.minBin ?? 40,
+  });
+
+  return {
+    model,
+    bands,
+    fit_n: fitRows.length,
+    certify_n: certRows.length,
+    fitted_through: fitRows[fitRows.length - 1].date,
+    shrinkage: model.shrinkage,
+    calibrate(p) {
+      const raw = knownNumber(p);
+      if (raw === null) return { p_raw: null, p_calibrated: null, calibrated: false, reason: 'absent' };
+      const c = lp.applyPlatt(model, raw);
+      if (c === null) return { p_raw: raw, p_calibrated: null, calibrated: false, reason: 'no_model_value' };
+      const inBand = cal.inCertifiedBand(bands, c);
+      return {
+        p_raw: raw,
+        p_calibrated: Math.round(c * 1000) / 1000,
+        calibrated: inBand,
+        reason: inBand ? null : 'outside_certified_band',
+      };
+    },
+  };
+}
+
+/** Load settled history and build, POINT-IN-TIME (strictly before today). */
+async function fromLedger(sb, { sport = 'mlb', stat = 'hits', before = null, ...opts } = {}) {
+  if (!sb) return null;
+  const cutoff = before || new Intl.DateTimeFormat('en-CA', {
+    timeZone: 'America/New_York', year: 'numeric', month: '2-digit', day: '2-digit',
+  }).format(new Date());
+  const rows = [];
+  for (let from = 0; ; from += 1000) {
+    const { data, error } = await sb.from('ledger_entries')
+      .select('p_win, outcome, game_date, quarantine_reason')
+      .eq('sport', sport).is('user_id', null).eq('stat', stat)
+      .in('outcome', ['hit', 'miss']).not('p_win', 'is', null)
+      .lt('game_date', cutoff)
+      .range(from, from + 999);
+    if (error || !data || data.length === 0) break;
+    rows.push(...data);
+    if (data.length < 1000) break;
+  }
+  const clean = rows
+    .filter((r) => !(r.quarantine_reason || '').startsWith('nontakeable_book'))
+    .map((r) => ({ p: Number(r.p_win), won: r.outcome === 'hit' ? 1 : 0, date: String(r.game_date) }));
+  const built = build(clean, opts);
+  return built ? { ...built, cutoff } : null;
+}
+
+module.exports = { build, fromLedger, MIN_FIT, HOLDOUT_FRACTION };

src/services/model/parkWeather.js

@@ -0,0 +1,179 @@
+'use strict';
+
+/**
+ * parkWeather — PARK GEOMETRY AND AIR, READ ONTO HIT TYPE.
+ *
+ * The crude park factor is a single number per stadium ("Coors inflates offence
+ * 1.15x") applied to every hitter and every outcome alike. It fails for the same
+ * reason team-average defence failed: it is not the unit the causal story runs
+ * through. A deep left-centre gap does not create hits, it converts fly balls
+ * that would have been caught into DOUBLES, and it converts home runs into
+ * outs. Those move total bases in opposite directions, and one multiplier
+ * cannot express both.
+ *
+ * So this atom does not touch P(hit). It reshapes the HIT-TYPE distribution —
+ * single / double / triple / home run — and lets the total-bases convolution
+ * carry the consequence.
+ *
+ * ── WIND IS REFUSED, AND THAT IS THE POINT ───────────────────────────────
+ * Wind is the largest weather effect on carry, and we have the wind: Open-Meteo
+ * returns speed and compass bearing for every one of these games. What we do NOT
+ * have is park ORIENTATION — which compass direction each stadium's centre field
+ * faces. Without it, a 15 mph wind from 220° is unresolvable: it is blowing out
+ * to right at one park and straight in at another, and those are opposite
+ * predictions.
+ *
+ * The tempting move is to use wind SPEED alone as a magnitude of disruption.
+ * That is fabrication with a plausible face — it asserts an effect while
+ * discarding the sign that determines what the effect IS. Wind stays unreadable
+ * and says so, until orientation is a real column. `wind_readable: false` is the
+ * honest carrier of that.
+ *
+ * ── WHAT IS ACTUALLY READ ────────────────────────────────────────────────
+ *   AIR DENSITY   temperature and elevation. Both have unambiguous sign — warmer
+ *                 and higher is thinner air is more carry — and neither needs
+ *                 orientation to interpret. Under a closed roof, temperature is
+ *                 the building's, not the sky's, so it is neutralised.
+ *   GEOMETRY      each park against the league, per direction. Short lines make
+ *                 home runs; deep gaps make doubles and triples out of the same
+ *                 batted ball.
+ */
+
+const { knownNumber } = require('../../utils/known');
+
+/** Bound on how far this atom may reshape any single hit-type share. */
+const MAX_EFFECT = 0.15;
+/** Reference conditions — the shares are calibrated to a temperate sea-level park. */
+const REF_TEMP_F = 72;
+const REF_ELEVATION_FT = 500;
+/** Per-degree and per-1000ft carry response, applied to the home-run share. */
+const CARRY_PER_DEG_F = 0.004;
+const CARRY_PER_KFT = 0.030;
+
+const isClosed = (roof) => /dome|closed|retractable/i.test(String(roof || ''));
+
+/**
+ * League geometry, computed from the parks actually held rather than hardcoded,
+ * so it cannot drift away from the data it is compared against.
+ */
+function leagueGeometry(parks) {
+  const keys = ['left_line', 'left_center', 'center', 'right_center', 'right_line'];
+  const out = {};
+  for (const k of keys) {
+    const vals = (parks || []).map((p) => knownNumber(p[k])).filter((v) => v !== null);
+    out[k] = vals.length ? vals.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / vals.length : null;
+  }
+  return out;
+}
+
+/**
+ * The read for one game.
+ *
+ * @param {object} dims    a park_dimensions row
+ * @param {object} wx      { wx_temp_f, wx_wind_speed_mph, wx_wind_direction_deg }
+ * @param {object} league  output of leagueGeometry
+ * @returns {object|null}  null when there is nothing readable — never a 1.0 that
+ *                         looks measured.
+ */
+function parkWeatherRead({ dims, wx, league } = {}) {
+  if (!dims || !league) return null;
+
+  const closed = isClosed(dims.roof_type);
+  const temp = knownNumber(wx && wx.wx_temp_f);
+  const elev = knownNumber(dims.elevation);
+
+  // ── AIR ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+  // Under a closed roof the outside temperature is not the air the ball flies
+  // through, so it contributes nothing rather than contributing zero.
+  let carry = 0;
+  const airParts = [];
+  if (!closed && temp !== null) {
+    carry += (temp - REF_TEMP_F) * CARRY_PER_DEG_F;
+    airParts.push('temperature');
+  }
+  if (elev !== null) {
+    carry += ((elev - REF_ELEVATION_FT) / 1000) * CARRY_PER_KFT;
+    airParts.push('elevation');
+  }
+
+  // ── GEOMETRY ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+  // Lines govern home runs; gaps and centre govern extra bases on balls that
+  // stay in the park. Deeper than league = fewer home runs, more doubles.
+  const rel = (k) => {
+    const v = knownNumber(dims[k]); const l = knownNumber(league[k]);
+    return v !== null && l !== null && l > 0 ? (v - l) / l : null;
+  };
+  const lines = [rel('left_line'), rel('right_line')].filter((v) => v !== null);
+  const gaps = [rel('left_center'), rel('right_center'), rel('center')].filter((v) => v !== null);
+  const lineDepth = lines.length ? lines.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / lines.length : null;
+  const gapDepth = gaps.length ? gaps.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / gaps.length : null;
+
+  if (lineDepth === null && gapDepth === null && !airParts.length) return null;
+
+  const clamp = (v) => Math.max(-MAX_EFFECT, Math.min(MAX_EFFECT, v));
+
+  // Deep lines suppress home runs; thin air and heat restore them.
+  const hr = clamp(carry - (lineDepth ?? 0) * 1.2);
+  // Deep gaps turn caught fly balls into doubles and the occasional triple.
+  const dbl = clamp((gapDepth ?? 0) * 0.8 - carry * 0.3);
+  const tpl = clamp((gapDepth ?? 0) * 1.5);
+  // Singles are the residual: what the ball did instead of clearing the fence.
+  const sgl = clamp(-(hr * 0.25 + dbl * 0.35));
+
+  return {
+    readable: true,
+    multipliers: {
+      single: round4(1 + sgl),
+      double: round4(1 + dbl),
+      triple: round4(1 + tpl),
+      home_run: round4(1 + hr),
+    },
+    carry: round4(carry),
+    line_depth_vs_league: round4(lineDepth),
+    gap_depth_vs_league: round4(gapDepth),
+    roof_closed: closed,
+    air_inputs: airParts,
+    // Stated on every read so a consumer cannot mistake silence for neutrality.
+    wind_readable: false,
+    wind_reason: 'park orientation unknown — a bearing cannot be resolved to out or in',
+  };
+}
+
+/** A checkable sentence, or nothing. */
+function explain(read, parkName) {
+  if (!read || !read.readable) return null;
+  const m = read.multipliers;
+  const bits = [];
+  if (read.line_depth_vs_league !== null) {
+    bits.push(`lines ${read.line_depth_vs_league >= 0 ? 'deeper' : 'shorter'} than league`);
+  }
+  if (read.gap_depth_vs_league !== null) {
+    bits.push(`gaps ${read.gap_depth_vs_league >= 0 ? 'deeper' : 'shorter'}`);
+  }
+  if (read.air_inputs.length) bits.push(`air via ${read.air_inputs.join(' and ')}`);
+  return `${parkName || 'this park'} — ${bits.join(', ')}; home runs x${m.home_run}, doubles x${m.double}`
+    + (read.roof_closed ? ' (roof closed, outside temperature not applied)' : '');
+}
+
+/** Reshape a hit-type share vector, renormalised so it stays a distribution. */
+function applyToShares(shares, read) {
+  if (!shares || !read || !read.readable) return shares || null;
+  const m = read.multipliers;
+  const out = {
+    single: (knownNumber(shares.single) ?? 0) * m.single,
+    double: (knownNumber(shares.double) ?? 0) * m.double,
+    triple: (knownNumber(shares.triple) ?? 0) * m.triple,
+    home_run: (knownNumber(shares.home_run) ?? 0) * m.home_run,
+  };
+  const sum = out.single + out.double + out.triple + out.home_run;
+  if (!(sum > 0)) return shares;
+  for (const k of Object.keys(out)) out[k] = round4(out[k] / sum);
+  return out;
+}
+
+const round4 = (v) => (v == null || !Number.isFinite(v) ? null : Math.round(v * 10000) / 10000);
+
+module.exports = {
+  parkWeatherRead, leagueGeometry, applyToShares, explain,
+  MAX_EFFECT, REF_TEMP_F, REF_ELEVATION_FT, CARRY_PER_DEG_F, CARRY_PER_KFT,
+};

src/services/model/penQuality.js

@@ -0,0 +1,101 @@
+'use strict';
+
+/**
+ * penQuality — the PROVEN half of Link 2.
+ *
+ * Link 2 was asked twice. Naming the individual reliever failed on merit (17.2%
+ * accuracy — wrong five times in six), because managers mix and match and the
+ * individual genuinely is noise. Asked at the COARSE grain the chain actually
+ * needs, it proves: predicted pen quality separates a realized 2.70pp hit-rate
+ * difference between the pens we call best and worst.
+ *
+ * The archetype grain did NOT prove (0.567 vs a 0.531 modal-guess baseline,
+ * corrected interval spanning zero) and is deliberately absent from this module.
+ * Two grains were tested; one earned a place.
+ *
+ * ── POINT-IN-TIME ON BOTH SIDES ──────────────────────────────────────────
+ * An arm's quality is his allowed-hit-rate over appearances strictly BEFORE the
+ * game in question, and a club's pen forecast comes only from its prior games.
+ * The target is which KNOWN-quality arms appeared — never how they happened to
+ * pitch that night, which would be scoring against the answer.
+ *
+ * ── ABSTAIN, NEVER IMPUTE ────────────────────────────────────────────────
+ * An arm below the appearance floor has no readable quality, and a club without
+ * enough prior games has no readable pen. Both return null. A league-average
+ * stand-in would assert "this is an ordinary bullpen", which is a claim, and
+ * usually the wrong one for exactly the clubs whose pens have just turned over.
+ */
+
+const { knownNumber } = require('../../utils/known');
+
+/** Appearances before an arm's quality is readable at all. */
+const MIN_ARM_PA = 40;
+/** Prior games before a club's pen is readable at all. */
+const MIN_PRIOR_GAMES = 5;
+
+const mean = (xs) => (xs.length ? xs.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / xs.length : null);
+
+/**
+ * One arm's quality from his prior line. Null below the floor — a 12-batter
+ * sample is not a scouting report.
+ */
+function armQuality(prior) {
+  const n = knownNumber(prior && prior.pa);
+  const h = knownNumber(prior && prior.hits);
+  if (n === null || h === null || n < MIN_ARM_PA) return null;
+  return h / n;
+}
+
+/**
+ * The pen a hitter's later plate appearances will face.
+ *
+ * @param {Array} priorGames  [{ quality }] this club's prior relief outings
+ * @returns {object|null} null when unreadable — never a league-average guess.
+ */
+function projectPen(priorGames) {
+  const qs = (priorGames || []).map((g) => knownNumber(g && g.quality)).filter((v) => v !== null);
+  if (qs.length < MIN_PRIOR_GAMES) {
+    return null;
+  }
+  return {
+    readable: true,
+    quality: round4(mean(qs)),
+    games_read: qs.length,
+    // Stated so a consumer cannot mistake this for a reliever-identity claim.
+    grain: 'pen_quality',
+    individual_arm_refused: 'naming the specific reliever did not prove (17.2% accuracy) — managers mix and match',
+    archetype_refused: 'the archetype grain did not prove at the corrected bar',
+  };
+}
+
+/**
+ * The measured relationship between pen quality and hit rate, for a consumer
+ * that wants the consequence rather than the input. Anchored on the observed
+ * league mean; the slope is the measured tercile separation, not a fitted
+ * parameter, and the effect is bounded because it was measured over a range.
+ */
+const LEAGUE_PEN_QUALITY = 0.2261;
+const HIT_RATE_PER_QUALITY = 0.87;    // 2.70pp realized over a 0.031 quality gap
+const MAX_SHIFT = 0.03;
+
+function hitRateShift(penQuality) {
+  const q = knownNumber(penQuality);
+  if (q === null) return null;         // absent stays absent
+  const raw = (q - LEAGUE_PEN_QUALITY) * HIT_RATE_PER_QUALITY;
+  return round4(Math.max(-MAX_SHIFT, Math.min(MAX_SHIFT, raw)));
+}
+
+/** A checkable sentence, or nothing. */
+function explain(pen) {
+  if (!pen || !pen.readable) return null;
+  const d = pen.quality - LEAGUE_PEN_QUALITY;
+  if (Math.abs(d) < 0.005) return `bullpen reads league-average over ${pen.games_read} prior games`;
+  return `bullpen reads ${d > 0 ? 'weaker' : 'stronger'} than league over ${pen.games_read} prior games`;
+}
+
+const round4 = (v) => (v == null || !Number.isFinite(v) ? null : Math.round(v * 10000) / 10000);
+
+module.exports = {
+  armQuality, projectPen, hitRateShift, explain,
+  MIN_ARM_PA, MIN_PRIOR_GAMES, LEAGUE_PEN_QUALITY, MAX_SHIFT,
+};

src/services/model/predictionGate.js

@@ -0,0 +1,160 @@
+'use strict';
+
+/**
+ * predictionGate — the two-part gate for a CONTINUOUS prediction.
+ *
+ * factorGate answers this for probabilities, where the loss is Brier. A link in
+ * the reliever chain predicts a quantity — how many batters the starter faces,
+ * which arm throws the fourth plate appearance — so the loss is squared error or
+ * a hit rate, and the binarisation factorGate applies to outcomes would silently
+ * destroy the target.
+ *
+ * The discipline is identical and deliberately so:
+ *
+ *   (a) MOVEMENT     the prediction differs from the naive baseline at all
+ *   (b) IMPROVEMENT  paired bootstrap on the loss difference, interval excluding
+ *                    zero at the cumulative-corrected level
+ *
+ * A link that predicts the league average very precisely has learned nothing, and
+ * without (a) it would pass (b) by tying. That is the same THEATER failure the
+ * probability gate exists to name, wearing different units.
+ *
+ * ── WHY CLUSTERING MATTERS HERE TOO ──────────────────────────────────────
+ * The same starter appears many times in a season, so his starts are not
+ * independent readings: a pitcher the model happens to fit well contributes a
+ * run of correlated wins. Clustering on the pitcher makes the interval reflect
+ * how many ARMS we have read, not how many starts we have counted.
+ */
+
+const { knownNumber } = require('../../utils/known');
+
+const MIN_N = 500;
+const MIN_CLUSTERS = 40;
+
+const mean = (xs) => (xs.length ? xs.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / xs.length : null);
+
+/** Absolute error, the honest default for a quantity a user would read. */
+const absLoss = (pred, actual) => Math.abs(pred - actual);
+/** Squared error, when large misses should dominate. */
+const sqLoss = (pred, actual) => (pred - actual) ** 2;
+
+function makeRnd(seed) {
+  let s = seed >>> 0;
+  return () => { s ^= s << 13; s >>>= 0; s ^= s >>> 17; s ^= s << 5; s >>>= 0; return s / 4294967296; };
+}
+
+/**
+ * @param {Array} rows [{ baseline, prediction, actual, cluster? }]
+ * @param {object} opts { loss, iters, seed, cumulativeTests, minN, minClusters }
+ */
+function adjudicate(rows, opts = {}) {
+  const loss = opts.loss === 'squared' ? sqLoss : absLoss;
+  const usable = (rows || []).filter((r) =>
+    knownNumber(r && r.baseline) !== null
+    && knownNumber(r && r.prediction) !== null
+    && knownNumber(r && r.actual) !== null);
+
+  const n = usable.length;
+  const shifts = usable.map((r) => Math.abs(r.prediction - r.baseline));
+  const movement = {
+    n,
+    mean_abs_shift: n ? round4(mean(shifts)) : null,
+    max_abs_shift: n ? round4(Math.max(...shifts)) : null,
+  };
+
+  const minN = opts.minN ?? MIN_N;
+  const minClusters = opts.minClusters ?? MIN_CLUSTERS;
+  const base = { link: opts.link || null, movement };
+
+  if (n < minN) {
+    return { ...base, verdict: 'PENDING_SAMPLE', reason: `n ${n} < ${minN}`, rows_needed: minN - n };
+  }
+
+  const clustered = usable.some((r) => r.cluster != null);
+  const groups = new Map();
+  if (clustered) {
+    for (const r of usable) {
+      const k = String(r.cluster);
+      if (!groups.has(k)) groups.set(k, []);
+      groups.get(k).push(r);
+    }
+  }
+  const keys = clustered ? [...groups.keys()] : null;
+  if (clustered && keys.length < minClusters) {
+    return {
+      ...base,
+      verdict: 'PENDING_SAMPLE',
+      reason: `${n} rows but only ${keys.length} independent clusters < ${minClusters}`,
+      clusters_needed: minClusters - keys.length,
+    };
+  }
+
+  const lossBase = mean(usable.map((r) => loss(r.baseline, r.actual)));
+  const lossPred = mean(usable.map((r) => loss(r.prediction, r.actual)));
+  const delta = lossPred - lossBase;          // negative = the link is better
+
+  const rnd = makeRnd(opts.seed ?? 20260806);
+  const iters = opts.iters ?? 3000;
+  const diffs = [];
+  for (let it = 0; it < iters; it += 1) {
+    const b = []; const p = [];
+    if (clustered) {
+      for (let i = 0; i < keys.length; i += 1) {
+        for (const r of groups.get(keys[Math.floor(rnd() * keys.length)])) {
+          b.push(loss(r.baseline, r.actual)); p.push(loss(r.prediction, r.actual));
+        }
+      }
+    } else {
+      for (let i = 0; i < n; i += 1) {
+        const r = usable[Math.floor(rnd() * n)];
+        b.push(loss(r.baseline, r.actual)); p.push(loss(r.prediction, r.actual));
+      }
+    }
+    diffs.push(mean(p) - mean(b));
+  }
+  diffs.sort((x, y) => x - y);
+  const tests = Math.max(1, Math.round(knownNumber(opts.cumulativeTests) ?? 1));
+  const alpha = 0.05 / tests;
+  const q = (x) => round4(diffs[Math.floor(Math.min(diffs.length - 1, Math.max(0, x * (diffs.length - 1))))]);
+  const ci = [q(alpha / 2), q(1 - alpha / 2)];
+
+  const improvement = {
+    n,
+    effective_n: clustered ? keys.length : n,
+    cluster_unit: clustered ? 'cluster' : 'row',
+    loss_baseline: round4(lossBase),
+    loss_prediction: round4(lossPred),
+    loss_delta: round4(delta),
+    ci,
+    ci_level: round4(1 - alpha),
+    bonferroni_tests: tests,
+    improves: ci[1] < 0,
+    degrades: ci[0] > 0,
+  };
+  const out = { ...base, improvement };
+
+  if (movement.mean_abs_shift === null || movement.mean_abs_shift < (opts.minMovement ?? 0)) {
+    return { ...out, verdict: 'INERT', reason: 'the link never departs from the naive baseline' };
+  }
+  if (improvement.improves) {
+    return { ...out, verdict: 'PROVES', reason: `beats the naive baseline by ${-improvement.loss_delta} (CI ${JSON.stringify(ci)} at ${improvement.ci_level}, corrected for ${tests} tests)` };
+  }
+  if (delta < 0) {
+    return {
+      ...out,
+      verdict: 'NOT_PROVEN_AT_CORRECTED_BAR',
+      reason: `point estimate improves by ${-improvement.loss_delta} but the corrected interval spans zero (${JSON.stringify(ci)})`,
+      note: 'a real candidate held to a rising bar — not theatre',
+    };
+  }
+  return {
+    ...out,
+    verdict: 'THEATER',
+    reason: `moves ${movement.mean_abs_shift} off the baseline while accuracy does NOT improve (delta ${improvement.loss_delta})`,
+    consequence: 'wiring this would make the projection LOOK like it read the game script while reading nothing',
+  };
+}
+
+const round4 = (v) => (v == null || !Number.isFinite(v) ? null : Math.round(v * 10000) / 10000);
+
+module.exports = { adjudicate, absLoss, sqLoss, MIN_N, MIN_CLUSTERS };

src/services/model/reAuditEligibility.js

@@ -0,0 +1,63 @@
+'use strict';
+
+/**
+ * reAuditEligibility — which settled rows may be measured on.
+ *
+ * The champion was repaired on 2026-08-07: it had been reading ten games as its
+ * season rate. Everything measured before that ran against a forecaster that
+ * lost to a frequency table, so calibration maps fitted on those rows correct
+ * toward a bias the current forecast may not have, and every factor verdict was
+ * scored against a sub-trivial baseline.
+ *
+ * The temptation is to reconstruct the repaired forecast over old rows and
+ * measure on that. It is REFUSED: a reconstruction is not what was served, and
+ * scoring a served product against a simulation of itself is the same class of
+ * error as scoring a map on the window it was fitted to.
+ *
+ * So eligibility is mechanical — a row qualifies only if the snapshot that
+ * produced it carries the repaired champion's version marker.
+ */
+
+const { REPAIRED_CHAMPION_VERSION } = require('../retentionService');
+
+/**
+ * Minimum settled DATES before each forward measurement is honest.
+ *
+ * Not row counts: the binding scarcity all session has been dates, and every
+ * interval that mattered was date-clustered. Stated here so the thresholds
+ * cannot drift toward whichever answer arrives first.
+ */
+const ACCRUAL = Object.freeze({
+  calibration_refit: 10,        // isotonic/low-param need a fit AND a held-out window
+  hits_factor_lift: 10,         // a date-block CI on a composed lift
+  prior_verdict_reaudit: 14,    // re-running gates that previously returned nulls
+  rbi_lineup_slot_gate: 14,     // a fresh two-part gate on a new factor
+});
+
+/** Was this row produced by the repaired champion? */
+function isEligible(row) {
+  if (!row) return false;
+  return String(row.model_version || '') === REPAIRED_CHAMPION_VERSION;
+}
+
+/**
+ * @returns {object} { eligible, dates, ready:{...}, blocked_reason }
+ *          `ready` is per-measurement, so one can unblock before another.
+ */
+function assess(rows) {
+  const eligible = (rows || []).filter(isEligible);
+  const dates = new Set(eligible.map((r) => String(r.game_date || ''))).size;
+  const ready = Object.fromEntries(Object.entries(ACCRUAL)
+    .map(([k, need]) => [k, { need, have: dates, ready: dates >= need }]));
+  return {
+    eligible_rows: eligible.length,
+    total_rows: (rows || []).length,
+    eligible_dates: dates,
+    ready,
+    blocked_reason: dates === 0
+      ? 'no settled rows yet carry the repaired champion marker — nothing may be measured'
+      : null,
+  };
+}
+
+module.exports = { isEligible, assess, ACCRUAL, REPAIRED_CHAMPION_VERSION };

src/services/retentionService.js

@@ -42,7 +42,23 @@ function etDateOf(iso) {
  * Bump when the grading model changes in a way that makes rows non-comparable.
  * This is the marker `ledger_entries` never had.
  */
-const MODEL_VERSION = process.env.MODEL_VERSION || 'engine1@2026-07-20';
+/**
+ * CHAMPION VERSION — the eligibility marker for every forward re-audit.
+ *
+ * Bumped when the forecaster itself changes, so a settled row is
+ * self-identifying: rows tagged `engine1@2026-08-07-fullwindow` were produced by
+ * the REPAIRED champion (full season log, recency weight 0.20); anything earlier
+ * came from the retired ten-game forecaster.
+ *
+ * This is what makes the re-audit rule mechanical rather than a promise.
+ * Calibration may only be re-fit, and factor verdicts may only be re-audited, on
+ * rows carrying the current marker — never on reconstructions of a retired
+ * forecast, and never on a mixture of the two, which is the trap that would
+ * otherwise be invisible once both generations sit in the same table.
+ */
+const MODEL_VERSION = process.env.MODEL_VERSION || 'engine1@2026-08-07-fullwindow';
+/** Rows at or after this marker are eligible for forward re-audit. */
+const REPAIRED_CHAMPION_VERSION = 'engine1@2026-08-07-fullwindow';
 
 function codeSha() {
   return process.env.SOURCE_COMMIT || process.env.GIT_SHA || process.env.COOLIFY_GIT_COMMIT_SHA || null;
@@ -229,6 +245,7 @@ function newSnapshotId() {
 
 module.exports = {
   MODEL_VERSION,
+  REPAIRED_CHAMPION_VERSION,
   codeSha,
   rowsFromSides,
   createCollector,

src/services/snapshotService.js

@@ -275,6 +275,54 @@ async function loadPitcherArsenals(sport) {
   } catch { return out; }
 }
 
+/**
+ * Stats that may serve a calibrated number, and on what basis.
+ *
+ * ── THE BIAS IS ROBUST; THE MAP WAS NOT CERTIFIABLE ──────────────────────
+ * Tested model-free and map-free on the picked-side population: the model
+ * over-predicts its own favourites, and the sign survives 99.5% of date-block
+ * resamples pooled and replicates in 4 of 4 stats. Over-prediction rises
+ * monotonically from -0.008 near p=0.55 to +0.245 above 0.9.
+ *
+ * What could NOT be certified on 19 dates is the stability of a specific
+ * isotonic MAP — LODO has 1.4-9.3% power there. So isotonic is retired and the
+ * correction is a TWO-PARAMETER Platt curve, which has no capacity to encode a
+ * single odd day, shrunk toward the raw forecast by fit-date count.
+ *
+ * Validated as a NEW estimator against RAW, date-block bootstrap:
+ *   hits         a=0.406 shrink 0.565  0.2626 -> 0.2540  CI [-0.0112,-0.0069]
+ *   total_bases  a=0.472 shrink 0.333  0.2490 -> 0.2429  CI [-0.0062,-0.0059]
+ *
+ * rbi is WITHDRAWN (deployed last order on isotonic): the low-parameter fit does
+ * not beat raw, CI [-0.0007, 0] touching zero. runs is refused by the slope
+ * guard — it fitted a = -0.032, which would invert the forecast rather than
+ * flatten it. Both now serve RAW.
+ */
+const CALIBRATION_DEPLOYED = Object.freeze([]);
+/**
+ * NOTHING IS SERVED CALIBRATED, AND THIS IS DELIBERATE.
+ *
+ * The low-parameter maps were fitted on the OLD forecast — the one whose base
+ * rate was a ten-game frequency. That distribution no longer exists: the
+ * champion now reads the full season log at a 0.20 recency weight, which tripled
+ * its resolution on hits (0.00251 -> 0.00817) and roughly doubled it on
+ * total_bases and runs.
+ *
+ * A calibration map applied to a forecast it was not fitted on is the stale-fit
+ * trap this session has already been caught by once, and it corrects toward a
+ * bias the new forecast may not have. `fromLedger` cannot rescue it either: the
+ * settled ledger rows still carry OLD p_win values, so refitting today would fit
+ * the retired forecast again.
+ *
+ * So calibration is OFF until enough dates settle under the repaired champion to
+ * refit honestly, and the favourite-longshot bias must be re-measured on the new
+ * forecast rather than assumed to have survived. Serving the raw repaired number
+ * is the honest state, not a regression.
+ *
+ * The shadow duel is likewise void — it accumulated against the old forecast.
+ */
+const CALIBRATION_BASIS = Object.freeze({});
+
 async function runSnapshot(sport, opts = {}) {
   const sp = String(sport || '').toLowerCase();
   const deps = {
@@ -417,7 +465,26 @@ async function runSnapshot(sport, opts = {}) {
   // Grade the slate via the existing service; capture the envelope instead of
   // letting it write (we re-write an ENRICHED version below).
   let envelope = null;
+  // ── PROVEN FACTORS, LOADED BEFORE THE GRADE ─────────────────────────────
+  // This ordering IS the fix. The same inputs were previously read at line 640+,
+  // downstream of the grade they should inform, so three proven factors never
+  // once moved a served number. Best-effort: a failed load means the slate is
+  // graded unadjusted, exactly as before.
+  let factorContext = null;
+  if (sp === 'mlb') {
+    try {
+      const ctxSvc = deps.hitsFactorContext || require('./model/hitsFactorContext');
+      const sbc = require('../utils/supabase').getSupabaseServiceClient();
+      factorContext = sbc ? await ctxSvc.build(sbc) : null;
+      if (factorContext) console.log(`[factors] ${sp} hits context loaded — ${JSON.stringify(factorContext.__stats)}`);
+      else console.log(`[factors] ${sp} — no factor context; grading unadjusted`);
+    } catch (e) {
+      console.warn('[factors] context skipped:', e.message);
+    }
+  }
+
   await deps.gradeAndCacheSlate(sp, props, {
+    factorContext,
     // Bisect hook (2026-08-01): lets the internal trigger run a bounded slate
     // without a prod env change, so a cap regression can be isolated by
     // measurement instead of guessed at. Omitted => gradeSlateService's own
@@ -700,37 +767,71 @@ async function runSnapshot(sport, opts = {}) {
     console.warn(`[challenger] ${sp} skipped:`, e.message);
   }
 
-  // ── FORWARD CALIBRATION (hits) ────────────────────────────────────────
+  // ── FORWARD CALIBRATION + THE SHADOW DUEL ─────────────────────────────
   // Fitted on games that are OVER, applied to tonight's props. `p_win` is NOT
-  // touched — the counter stays byte-identical and the calibrated value rides
+  // touched — the counter stays byte-identical and the corrected value rides
   // beside it, because a calibration map is a correction TO a forecast, not a
   // different forecast.
   //
-  // `calibrated` is true only inside a band certified out-of-sample, and it is
-  // what `chain.chainAcross` requires before it will compound anything. No
-  // calibrator (thin history) means NOTHING is stackable — never "pass the raw
-  // numbers through".
+  // WHAT IS SERVED, AND WHY IT IS A BET RATHER THAN A RESULT. On identical
+  // held-out rows the ISOTONIC map scored BETTER than the low-parameter one
+  // (hits +0.0028, rbi +0.0042, total_bases tied). We serve the low-parameter
+  // map anyway, on the argument that isotonic's in-window edge is daily
+  // structure shared between the fit and evaluation windows and will not
+  // transmit forward. At 19 dates no instrument here can test that argument —
+  // LODO has 1.4-9.3% power — so it is a BET, not evidence.
+  //
+  // So both are computed on every prop and the shadow is logged. Real
+  // out-of-window dates adjudicate it:
+  //
+  //   PRE-REGISTERED: once >=10 forward dates have settled that NEITHER map was
+  //   fitted on, if isotonic beats low-param with a date-block bootstrap CI
+  //   excluding zero, the capacity argument is REFUTED and hits/TB revert to
+  //   isotonic. If low-param wins or ties, the bet was right. The season
+  //   decides, not the argument.
+  //
+  // Serving is unchanged until that bar is met. `calibrated` is true only inside
+  // a band certified out-of-sample, and it is what `chain.chainAcross` requires
+  // before it will compound anything.
   if (sp === 'mlb') {
-    try {
-      const calSvc = deps.calibrationService || require('./model/calibrationService');
-      const sbc = require('../utils/supabase').getSupabaseServiceClient();
-      const calibrator = sbc ? await calSvc.fromLedger(sbc, { sport: 'mlb', stat: 'hits' }) : null;
-      if (calibrator) {
-        let marked = 0;
-        for (const g of enriched) {
-          if (String(g.stat_type || g.stat || '').toLowerCase() !== 'hits') continue;
-          const out = calibrator.calibrate(g.p_win);
-          g.p_win_calibrated = out.p_calibrated;
-          g.calibrated = out.calibrated;
-          g.calibration_reason = out.reason;
-          if (out.calibrated) marked += 1;
+    for (const stat of CALIBRATION_DEPLOYED) {
+      try {
+        const calSvc = deps.calibrationService || require('./model/lowParamService');
+        const shadowSvc = deps.shadowCalibrationService || require('./model/calibrationService');
+        const sbc = require('../utils/supabase').getSupabaseServiceClient();
+        const calibrator = sbc ? await calSvc.fromLedger(sbc, { sport: 'mlb', stat }) : null;
+        // The shadow must never break serving: its own try, and a null shadow
+        // simply means the duel has no entry for tonight.
+        let shadow = null;
+        try { shadow = sbc ? await shadowSvc.fromLedger(sbc, { sport: 'mlb', stat }) : null; } catch { shadow = null; }
+
+        if (calibrator) {
+          let marked = 0; let shadowed = 0;
+          for (const g of enriched) {
+            if (String(g.stat_type || g.stat || '').toLowerCase() !== stat) continue;
+            const out = calibrator.calibrate(g.p_win);
+            g.p_win_calibrated = out.p_calibrated;
+            g.p_win_lowparam = out.p_calibrated;      // named, so the duel is legible
+            g.calibrated = out.calibrated;
+            g.calibration_reason = out.reason;
+            g.calibration_status = 'provisional';
+            g.calibration_basis = CALIBRATION_BASIS[stat] || null;
+            if (out.calibrated) marked += 1;
+            if (shadow) {
+              const sh = shadow.calibrate(g.p_win);
+              // SHADOW ONLY. Never read by serving, never by chainAcross.
+              g.p_win_isotonic_shadow = sh.p_calibrated;
+              g.calibration_duel_fitted_through = shadow.fitted_through || null;
+              if (sh.p_calibrated != null) shadowed += 1;
+            }
+          }
+          console.log(`[calibration] ${sp} ${stat} (low-param, PROVISIONAL) — ${marked} stackable; fit n=${calibrator.fit_n} through ${calibrator.fitted_through}, a=${calibrator.model.a} shrink=${calibrator.shrinkage}; shadow logged on ${shadowed}`);
+        } else {
+          console.log(`[calibration] ${sp} ${stat} — no calibrator (thin history); nothing is stackable`);
         }
-        console.log(`[calibration] ${sp} hits — ${marked} stackable of ${enriched.filter((g) => String(g.stat_type || g.stat || '').toLowerCase() === 'hits').length}; fit n=${calibrator.fit_n} through ${calibrator.fitted_through}, bands ${JSON.stringify(calibrator.bands.map((b) => [b.lo, b.hi]))}`);
-      } else {
-        console.log(`[calibration] ${sp} — no calibrator (thin history); nothing is stackable`);
+      } catch (e) {
+        console.warn(`[calibration] ${stat} skipped:`, e.message);
       }
-    } catch (e) {
-      console.warn('[calibration] skipped:', e.message);
     }
   }
 
@@ -843,5 +944,7 @@ module.exports = {
   generateTickerEvents,
   pushTickerItems,
   ACTIVE_SPORTS,
+  CALIBRATION_DEPLOYED,
+  CALIBRATION_BASIS,
   __internals: { propKey, gradedAtFor, indexOdds, lastName, isTopGrade, DELTA_NOISE, DELTA_MOVE, TICKER_CAP },
 };

tests/unit/calibrationDeployGate.test.js

@@ -0,0 +1,47 @@
+'use strict';
+
+/**
+ * Which stats serve a calibrated number, and on what basis.
+ *
+ * The claim that survived on this sample is the bias DIRECTION, tested model-free
+ * and map-free. What did not survive is any certification of a specific map's
+ * stability. These lock that distinction into the serving path.
+ */
+
+const snapshotService = require('../../src/services/snapshotService');
+const lp = require('../../src/services/model/lowParamCalibrator');
+
+describe('the deploy set rides a low-parameter correction, not isotonic', () => {
+  it('serves NOTHING while the maps are stale against the repaired champion', () => {
+    // hits and total_bases were deployed at 74cf1ce on maps fitted to the OLD
+    // forecast, whose base rate was a ten-game frequency. The champion now reads
+    // the full season log, so that distribution no longer exists and the maps
+    // correct toward a bias the new forecast may not have.
+    expect(snapshotService.CALIBRATION_DEPLOYED).toEqual([]);
+  });
+
+  it('WITHDRAWS rbi — the low-parameter fit does not beat raw', () => {
+    // rbi was deployed at ced4042 on isotonic. Its CI vs raw is [-0.0007, 0],
+    // which touches zero, so it serves raw again.
+    expect(snapshotService.CALIBRATION_DEPLOYED).not.toContain('rbi');
+  });
+
+  it('does NOT serve runs — its fitted slope would invert the forecast', () => {
+    expect(snapshotService.CALIBRATION_DEPLOYED).not.toContain('runs');
+  });
+
+  it('carries no basis claim while nothing is deployed', () => {
+    expect(snapshotService.CALIBRATION_BASIS).toEqual({});
+  });
+
+  it('the served correction cannot encode a single odd day', () => {
+    // Two parameters over the whole curve is the entire reason for the swap.
+    expect(typeof lp.fitPlatt).toBe('function');
+    expect(lp.MIN_SLOPE).toBeGreaterThan(0);
+  });
+
+  it('is frozen, so a stat cannot be added at runtime', () => {
+    expect(Object.isFrozen(snapshotService.CALIBRATION_DEPLOYED)).toBe(true);
+    expect(() => { snapshotService.CALIBRATION_DEPLOYED.push('hits'); }).toThrow();
+  });
+});

tests/unit/calibrationDuel.test.js

@@ -0,0 +1,80 @@
+'use strict';
+
+/**
+ * The forward adjudication of a bet made against the measurement.
+ *
+ * We serve the map that scored WORSE in-window, on an argument the sample
+ * cannot test. These lock the rule that decides whether that argument survives —
+ * written before any forward date exists, so the bar cannot drift toward
+ * whichever answer arrives.
+ */
+
+const duel = require('../../src/services/model/calibrationDuel');
+
+/** Forward rows where `edge` favours the shadow when positive. */
+function rows(dates, perDate, edge, seed = 2) {
+  let s = seed;
+  const rnd = () => (s = (s * 1103515245 + 12345) % 2147483648) / 2147483648;
+  const out = [];
+  for (let d = 0; d < dates; d += 1) {
+    for (let i = 0; i < perDate; i += 1) {
+      const won = rnd() < 0.6 ? 1 : 0;
+      const err = 0.25 + rnd() * 0.1;
+      out.push({
+        date: `2026-09-${String(d + 1).padStart(2, '0')}`,
+        fitted_through: '2026-08-31',
+        won,
+        served: won ? 1 - err : err,
+        shadow: won ? 1 - err + edge : err - edge,
+      });
+    }
+  }
+  return out;
+}
+
+describe('the rule is pre-registered and cannot be met early', () => {
+  it('is PENDING below the forward-date bar, whatever the numbers say', () => {
+    // Even with the shadow winning decisively, 5 dates is not a verdict.
+    const v = duel.adjudicate(rows(5, 40, 0.15));
+    expect(v.verdict).toBe('PENDING');
+    expect(v.dates_needed).toBe(duel.MIN_FORWARD_DATES - 5);
+    expect(v.action).toMatch(/keep serving/);
+  });
+
+  it('REFUTES the bet when isotonic wins out-of-window at the bar', () => {
+    const v = duel.adjudicate(rows(12, 40, 0.15));
+    expect(v.verdict).toBe('REFUTED');
+    expect(v.ci[1]).toBeLessThan(0);
+    expect(v.action).toMatch(/REVERT/);
+  });
+
+  it('UPHOLDS the bet when the served map is not beaten', () => {
+    const v = duel.adjudicate(rows(12, 40, -0.15));
+    expect(v.verdict).toBe('UPHELD');
+    expect(v.action).toMatch(/keep serving/);
+  });
+
+  it('UPHOLDS on a tie — the burden is on refutation, not on us', () => {
+    const v = duel.adjudicate(rows(12, 40, 0));
+    expect(v.verdict).toBe('UPHELD');
+  });
+});
+
+describe('only genuinely out-of-window dates count', () => {
+  it('drops rows inside the fit window — that would score memorisation', () => {
+    const inWindow = rows(12, 40, 0.15).map((r) => ({ ...r, fitted_through: '2026-12-31' }));
+    const v = duel.adjudicate(inWindow);
+    expect(v.verdict).toBe('PENDING');
+    expect(v.forward_dates).toBe(0);
+  });
+
+  it('drops rows with no fit provenance rather than assuming they are forward', () => {
+    const noProv = rows(12, 40, 0.15).map(({ fitted_through, ...r }) => r);
+    expect(duel.adjudicate(noProv).forward_dates).toBe(0);
+  });
+
+  it('drops rows missing either map — a duel needs both entrants', () => {
+    const half = rows(12, 40, 0.15).map((r) => ({ ...r, shadow: null }));
+    expect(duel.adjudicate(half).forward_dates).toBe(0);
+  });
+});

tests/unit/calibrationGuards.test.js

@@ -0,0 +1,112 @@
+'use strict';
+
+/**
+ * The two ways a calibration measurement lies.
+ *
+ * Both produced a confident, plausible, completely wrong number in the
+ * settlement session, and neither was visible in the output. These lock them out.
+ */
+
+const g = require('../../src/services/model/calibrationGuards');
+const cal = require('../../src/services/model/calibration');
+
+/** A population carrying BOTH sides of each prop, as the snapshot table does. */
+function bothSides(n) {
+  const rows = [];
+  for (let i = 0; i < n; i += 1) {
+    const p = 0.55 + (i % 7) * 0.05;
+    rows.push({ propKey: `prop${i}`, side: 'over', p });
+    rows.push({ propKey: `prop${i}`, side: 'under', p: 1 - p });
+  }
+  return rows;
+}
+
+describe('GUARD 1 — the both-sides tell', () => {
+  it('catches the 0.4998 signature: both sides present AND mean pinned at 0.5', () => {
+    const rows = bothSides(200);
+    const r = g.checkPickedSideDedup(rows);
+    expect(r.violated).toBe(true);
+    expect(r.both_sides_share).toBe(1);
+    expect(Math.abs(r.mean_p - 0.5)).toBeLessThanOrEqual(g.BALANCED_TOLERANCE);
+    expect(r.reason).toMatch(/balanced by construction/);
+  });
+
+  it('assert form REFUSES rather than returning a number', () => {
+    expect(() => g.assertPickedSideDedup(bothSides(100))).toThrow(/CALIBRATION GUARD/);
+  });
+
+  it('passes once deduped to the model-picked side', () => {
+    // The picked side is the one the model favoured, so the mean sits well
+    // above 0.5 — which is what a real forecaster's book looks like.
+    const picked = bothSides(200).filter((r) => r.p > 0.5);
+    const r = g.checkPickedSideDedup(picked);
+    expect(r.violated).toBe(false);
+    expect(r.mean_p).toBeGreaterThan(0.5 + g.BALANCED_TOLERANCE);
+  });
+
+  it('does NOT fire on a genuinely balanced one-sided book', () => {
+    // Either condition alone is unremarkable. A book of one-sided picks that
+    // happens to average 0.5 is honest, and flagging it would be a false alarm.
+    const rows = Array.from({ length: 300 }, (_, i) => ({
+      propKey: `p${i}`, side: 'over', p: i % 2 ? 0.45 : 0.55,
+    }));
+    const r = g.checkPickedSideDedup(rows);
+    expect(r.both_sides_props).toBe(0);
+    expect(r.violated).toBe(false);
+  });
+
+  it('does NOT fire when both sides are present but the mean is skewed', () => {
+    const rows = bothSides(50).concat(
+      Array.from({ length: 400 }, (_, i) => ({ propKey: `x${i}`, side: 'over', p: 0.8 })));
+    const r = g.checkPickedSideDedup(rows);
+    expect(r.both_sides_props).toBeGreaterThan(0);
+    expect(r.violated).toBe(false);          // already deduped elsewhere
+  });
+});
+
+describe('GUARD 2 — a null must never score itself', () => {
+  it('(null-1)**2 can no longer pass as a metric', () => {
+    // This is the exact breach: JS scores null as 1 against a win and 0 against
+    // a loss, so the "Brier" silently equals the win rate.
+    const outcomes = [1, 1, 0, 1, 0];
+    const naive = outcomes.reduce((s, y, i) => s + ((null - y) ** 2), 0) / outcomes.length;
+    const winRate = outcomes.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / outcomes.length;
+    expect(naive).toBeCloseTo(winRate, 10);          // the trap, demonstrated
+
+    expect(g.safeBrier([null, null, null, null, null], outcomes)).toBeNull();
+  });
+
+  it('refuses when ANY single prediction is null', () => {
+    expect(g.safeBrier([0.6, 0.4, null], [1, 0, 1])).toBeNull();
+  });
+
+  it('can be made to hard-fail instead of refusing', () => {
+    expect(() => g.safeBrier([0.6, null], [1, 0], { onNull: 'throw' }))
+      .toThrow(/null prediction reached a Brier term/);
+  });
+
+  it('scores normally when every prediction is real', () => {
+    expect(g.safeBrier([1, 0], [1, 0])).toBe(0);
+    expect(g.safeBrier([0.5, 0.5], [1, 0])).toBeCloseTo(0.25, 10);
+  });
+
+  it('an unfittable map refuses instead of producing null predictions', () => {
+    // fitIsotonic returns null below its minimum; this is what must happen next.
+    const map = cal.fitIsotonic([{ p: 0.6, won: 1 }, { p: 0.4, won: 0 }]);
+    expect(map).toBeNull();
+    const out = g.applyOrRefuse(map, [{ p: 0.6 }], cal.applyIsotonic);
+    expect(out.ok).toBe(false);
+    expect(out.reason).toMatch(/no calibration map/);
+    expect(out.rows).toEqual([]);
+  });
+
+  it('drops unmappable rows rather than passing nulls downstream', () => {
+    const fit = [];
+    for (let i = 0; i < 400; i += 1) fit.push({ p: 0.3 + (i % 60) / 100, won: i % 3 === 0 ? 1 : 0 });
+    const map = cal.fitIsotonic(fit);
+    expect(map).not.toBeNull();
+    const out = g.applyOrRefuse(map, [{ p: 0.5 }, { p: null }], cal.applyIsotonic);
+    expect(out.rows.length).toBe(1);
+    expect(out.dropped).toBe(1);
+  });
+});

tests/unit/calibrationRegistry.test.js

@@ -0,0 +1,176 @@
+'use strict';
+
+/**
+ * Which stats may serve a calibrated number.
+ *
+ * The thing these protect is the meaning of PROVISIONAL: a provisional deploy
+ * that cannot be taken away is just a deploy.
+ */
+
+const { createRegistry, STATUS, PROMOTION_DATE_CLUSTERS } = require('../../src/services/model/calibrationRegistry');
+
+const MAP = [{ lo: 0.5, hi: 0.7, value: 0.55, n: 300 }];
+const GOOD = { lodo_pass: true, ci: [-0.0061, -0.0045], map: MAP, certified_bands: [[0.6, 0.8]], date_clusters: 7, at: '2026-08-06' };
+
+describe('deploy needs BOTH gates', () => {
+  it('deploys when LODO passes and the interval excludes zero', () => {
+    const r = createRegistry();
+    expect(r.deploy('total_bases', GOOD).status).toBe(STATUS.PROVISIONAL);
+  });
+
+  it('refuses on a LODO failure however good the interval', () => {
+    const r = createRegistry();
+    const out = r.deploy('runs', { ...GOOD, lodo_pass: false });
+    expect(out.ok).toBe(false);
+    expect(out.reason).toMatch(/date-driven/);
+  });
+
+  it('refuses when the interval spans zero however clean the LODO', () => {
+    const r = createRegistry();
+    const out = r.deploy('hits', { ...GOOD, ci: [-0.01, 0.002] });
+    expect(out.ok).toBe(false);
+    expect(out.reason).toMatch(/does not exclude zero/);
+  });
+
+  it('refuses without a map — there is nothing to serve', () => {
+    const r = createRegistry();
+    expect(r.deploy('hits', { ...GOOD, map: null }).ok).toBe(false);
+  });
+});
+
+describe('auto-demotion is what makes provisional honest', () => {
+  it('demotes on the first date where the interval stops excluding zero', () => {
+    const r = createRegistry();
+    r.deploy('total_bases', GOOD);
+    const out = r.reverify('total_bases', { ci: [-0.004, 0.001], date: '2026-08-07' });
+    expect(out.status).toBe(STATUS.NONE);
+    expect(out.reason).toBe('ci_no_longer_excludes_zero');
+    expect(out.breaking_date).toBe('2026-08-07');
+    expect(r.serves('total_bases', 0.65).serve).toBe(false);
+  });
+
+  it('demotes when the favourite over-prediction flips sign', () => {
+    // A flip means the correction is now pushing the wrong way.
+    const r = createRegistry();
+    r.deploy('total_bases', GOOD);
+    const out = r.reverify('total_bases', { ci: [-0.006, -0.004], favourite_bias: -0.03, date: '2026-08-08' });
+    expect(out.status).toBe(STATUS.NONE);
+    expect(out.reason).toBe('favourite_bias_flipped');
+  });
+
+  it('logs the demotion with its breaking date', () => {
+    const r = createRegistry();
+    r.deploy('total_bases', GOOD);
+    r.reverify('total_bases', { ci: [0.001, 0.004], date: '2026-08-09' });
+    const ev = r.log().find((e) => e.event === 'auto_demoted');
+    expect(ev).toMatchObject({ stat: 'total_bases', at: '2026-08-09' });
+  });
+
+  it('stays deployed while both conditions hold', () => {
+    const r = createRegistry();
+    r.deploy('total_bases', GOOD);
+    const out = r.reverify('total_bases', { ci: [-0.007, -0.003], favourite_bias: 0.17, date: '2026-08-07' });
+    expect(out.status).toBe(STATUS.PROVISIONAL);
+    expect(out.changed).toBe(false);
+  });
+});
+
+describe('the >=40 date-cluster bar is the PROMOTION bar, not the deploy bar', () => {
+  it('does not block deployment', () => {
+    const r = createRegistry();
+    expect(r.deploy('total_bases', { ...GOOD, date_clusters: 7 }).ok).toBe(true);
+  });
+
+  it('promotes out of provisional once it is met', () => {
+    const r = createRegistry();
+    r.deploy('total_bases', GOOD);
+    const out = r.reverify('total_bases', { ci: [-0.006, -0.004], date_clusters: PROMOTION_DATE_CLUSTERS, date: '2026-09-15' });
+    expect(out.status).toBe(STATUS.PROMOTED);
+  });
+
+  it('does not promote while the interval has stopped holding', () => {
+    const r = createRegistry();
+    r.deploy('total_bases', GOOD);
+    const out = r.reverify('total_bases', { ci: [-0.001, 0.003], date_clusters: 60, date: '2026-09-15' });
+    expect(out.status).toBe(STATUS.NONE);
+  });
+});
+
+describe('serving is band-limited', () => {
+  it('serves inside the certified band and refuses outside it', () => {
+    const r = createRegistry();
+    r.deploy('total_bases', GOOD);
+    expect(r.serves('total_bases', 0.65).serve).toBe(true);
+    expect(r.serves('total_bases', 0.65).provisional).toBe(true);
+    expect(r.serves('total_bases', 0.95).serve).toBe(false);
+    expect(r.serves('total_bases', 0.95).reason).toMatch(/outside the certified band/);
+  });
+
+  it('an undeployed stat never serves', () => {
+    const r = createRegistry();
+    expect(r.serves('hits', 0.6).serve).toBe(false);
+    expect(r.serves('hits', 0.6).reason).toBe('not deployed');
+  });
+
+  it('a missing p_win serves nothing', () => {
+    const r = createRegistry();
+    r.deploy('total_bases', GOOD);
+    expect(r.serves('total_bases', null).serve).toBe(false);
+  });
+});
+
+describe('the LODO test is a COHERENT pair, not a bar plus an unrelated rule', () => {
+  const { LODO_K, LODO_TEST, LODO_POWER_FLOOR } = require('../../src/services/model/calibrationRegistry');
+
+  const normCdf = (z) => {
+    const t = 1 / (1 + 0.2316419 * Math.abs(z));
+    const d = 0.3989422804014327 * Math.exp(-z * z / 2);
+    const p = d * t * (0.319381530 + t * (-0.356563782 + t * (1.781477937 + t * (-1.821255978 + t * 1.330274429))));
+    return z >= 0 ? 1 - p : p;
+  };
+  const binomPmf = (n, k, p) => {
+    let logC = 0;
+    for (let i = 0; i < k; i += 1) logC += Math.log(n - i) - Math.log(i + 1);
+    return Math.exp(logC + k * Math.log(p) + (n - k) * Math.log(1 - p));
+  };
+  const tail = (n, c, p) => { let s = 0; for (let k = c + 1; k <= n; k += 1) s += binomPmf(n, k, p); return s; };
+
+  it('each n* is what its own (sigma_row, g) produce — no pooled value', () => {
+    for (const [stat, t] of Object.entries(LODO_TEST)) {
+      expect(Math.ceil(LODO_K ** 2 * (t.sigma_row / Math.abs(t.g)) ** 2)).toBe(t.n_star);
+    }
+    // And the four differ, which is exactly why one pooled number mis-credited them.
+    const stars = Object.values(LODO_TEST).map((t) => t.n_star);
+    expect(new Set(stars).size).toBeGreaterThan(1);
+  });
+
+  it('each cutoff is the smallest one holding the false-positive rate at 0.05', () => {
+    const p = normCdf(-LODO_K);
+    for (const [stat, t] of Object.entries(LODO_TEST)) {
+      expect(tail(t.informative_drops, t.cutoff, p)).toBeLessThanOrEqual(0.05);
+      if (t.cutoff > 0) expect(tail(t.informative_drops, t.cutoff - 1, p)).toBeGreaterThan(0.05);
+      expect(t.fp).toBeCloseTo(tail(t.informative_drops, t.cutoff, p), 3);
+    }
+  });
+
+  it('the OLD rule is demonstrably incoherent — it failed stable stats ~half the time', () => {
+    // Zero-reversal rule at a 1-SE bar, on four informative drops.
+    const pNoise = normCdf(-1);
+    const falseFail = 1 - (1 - pNoise) ** 4;
+    expect(falseFail).toBeGreaterThan(0.45);
+    expect(falseFail).toBeLessThan(0.55);
+  });
+
+  it('every stat falls below the power floor, so none may claim LODO stability', () => {
+    // A gate that cannot fail is not a gate. This is the honest state at this
+    // date count, and the floor makes it structural rather than a footnote.
+    for (const [stat, t] of Object.entries(LODO_TEST)) {
+      expect(t.power).toBeLessThan(LODO_POWER_FLOOR);
+    }
+  });
+
+  it('the stale pooled threshold is nulled so nothing can read it', () => {
+    const { LODO_MIN_HELD_ROWS } = require('../../src/services/model/calibrationRegistry');
+    expect(LODO_MIN_HELD_ROWS).toBeNull();
+  });
+});

tests/unit/championRepair.test.js

@@ -0,0 +1,55 @@
+'use strict';
+
+/**
+ * The champion's forecast window, and what depends on it.
+ *
+ * The defect: `estimateProbability` builds its base rate as the frequency over
+ * every row it is handed, and it was handed ten games. So the "season rate" was
+ * a ten-game rate, and 0.4 of the forecast was the last five OF THOSE TEN.
+ * Measured point-in-time, a plain season frequency out-resolved the served
+ * champion on all four stats.
+ */
+
+const est = require('../../src/services/intelligence/probabilityEstimator');
+const snapshotService = require('../../src/services/snapshotService');
+
+/** n games where the player cleared the line at the given rate, most-recent-first. */
+const logs = (n, rate, statType = 'hits') => Array.from({ length: n }, (_, i) => ({
+  date: `2026-06-${String((i % 28) + 1).padStart(2, '0')}`,
+  [statType]: (i % Math.round(1 / rate)) === 0 ? 2 : 0,
+}));
+
+describe('the forecast is no longer dominated by five games', () => {
+  it('a long cold streak inside a good season does not swing the forecast wildly', () => {
+    // Ten recent zeros on top of a strong season. At the old 0.40 weight this
+    // pulled the number a long way off a better one.
+    const season = logs(80, 0.6);
+    const cold = Array.from({ length: 5 }, (_, i) => ({ date: `2026-07-0${i + 1}`, hits: 0 }));
+    const withCold = [...cold, ...season];
+    const out = est.estimateProbability({ gameLogs: withCold, line: 0.5, statType: 'hits', features: {} });
+    const seasonOnly = est.estimateProbability({ gameLogs: season, line: 0.5, statType: 'hits', features: {} });
+    // It still moves — recency is not zero — but by a fraction of the gap.
+    expect(out.p_over).toBeLessThan(seasonOnly.p_over);
+    expect(seasonOnly.p_over - out.p_over).toBeLessThan(0.25);
+  });
+
+  it('more history produces a steadier forecast than ten games', () => {
+    const ten = logs(10, 0.6);
+    const many = logs(80, 0.6);
+    const a = est.estimateProbability({ gameLogs: ten, line: 0.5, statType: 'hits', features: {} });
+    const b = est.estimateProbability({ gameLogs: many, line: 0.5, statType: 'hits', features: {} });
+    expect(Number.isFinite(a.p_over)).toBe(true);
+    expect(Number.isFinite(b.p_over)).toBe(true);
+  });
+});
+
+describe('calibration is off while its maps are stale', () => {
+  it('serves nothing calibrated — the maps were fit on the retired forecast', () => {
+    expect(snapshotService.CALIBRATION_DEPLOYED).toEqual([]);
+    expect(snapshotService.CALIBRATION_BASIS).toEqual({});
+  });
+
+  it('the deploy list is still frozen, so nothing can re-enable it at runtime', () => {
+    expect(Object.isFrozen(snapshotService.CALIBRATION_DEPLOYED)).toBe(true);
+  });
+});

tests/unit/factorGate.test.js

@@ -153,3 +153,97 @@ describe('the measurements themselves', () => {
     expect(fg.adjudicate(r, { factor: 'backwards' }).verdict).toBe('THEATER');
   });
 });
+
+describe('pseudo-replication — sample counted in the unit the factor varies over', () => {
+  // A game-level factor (park, weather, opposing starter) hands every prop row
+  // in a game the identical treatment. Eighteen hitters in one ballpark are one
+  // reading of that ballpark, not eighteen.
+  const build = (games, perGame, seed = 1) => {
+    let s = seed;
+    const rnd = () => (s = (s * 1103515245 + 12345) % 2147483648) / 2147483648;
+    const rows = [];
+    for (let g = 0; g < games; g += 1) {
+      const shift = (rnd() - 0.5) * 0.06;      // the game's treatment
+      // Outcomes are correlated WITHIN a game — a high-scoring night lifts every
+      // hitter in it. That shared component is exactly what row-resampling
+      // cannot see and what makes 18 rows worth far less than 18 readings.
+      const gameLevel = (rnd() - 0.5) * 0.5;
+      for (let i = 0; i < perGame; i += 1) {
+        const base = 0.3 + rnd() * 0.4;
+        const p = Math.max(0.02, Math.min(0.98, base + gameLevel));
+        rows.push({ cluster: `g${g}`, baseline: base, conditioned: base + shift, won: rnd() < p ? 1 : 0 });
+      }
+    }
+    return rows;
+  };
+
+  it('judges sample by CLUSTERS, so 900 rows over 50 games is 50 readings', () => {
+    const rows = build(50, 18);
+    // 900 rows clears the row floor; 50 clusters is what actually decides it.
+    const v = fg.adjudicate(rows, { factor: 'park', minN: 500, minClusters: 100 });
+    expect(rows.length).toBeGreaterThan(500);          // looks like plenty
+    expect(v.verdict).toBe('CANDIDATE_PENDING_SAMPLE'); // and is not
+    expect(v.improvement.effective_n).toBe(50);
+    expect(v.improvement.cluster_unit).toBe('cluster');
+    expect(v.reason).toMatch(/not independent readings/);
+  });
+
+  it('the clustered interval is WIDER than the row interval on the same rows', () => {
+    // This is the whole hazard: resampling rows would have manufactured a
+    // confidence the evidence never supported.
+    const rows = build(40, 20, 7);
+    const clustered = fg.adjudicate(rows, { factor: 'park', minN: 10, minClusters: 5 });
+    const flat = fg.adjudicate(rows.map(({ cluster, ...r }) => r), { factor: 'park', minN: 10 });
+    const width = (v) => v.improvement.ci[1] - v.improvement.ci[0];
+    expect(width(clustered)).toBeGreaterThan(width(flat));
+  });
+
+  it('rows with no cluster keep the original row-resampling behaviour', () => {
+    const rows = build(40, 20, 3).map(({ cluster, ...r }) => r);
+    const v = fg.adjudicate(rows, { factor: 'x', minN: 10, minClusters: 5 });
+    expect(v.improvement.cluster_unit).toBe('row');
+    expect(v.improvement.effective_n).toBe(v.improvement.n);
+  });
+});
+
+describe('the two floors answer different questions', () => {
+  const rows = [];
+  let s2 = 11;
+  const rnd = () => (s2 = (s2 * 1103515245 + 12345) % 2147483648) / 2147483648;
+  for (let g = 0; g < 60; g += 1) {
+    for (let i = 0; i < 20; i += 1) {
+      const base = 0.35 + rnd() * 0.3;
+      rows.push({ cluster: `g${g}`, baseline: base, conditioned: base - 0.02, won: rnd() < base ? 1 : 0 });
+    }
+  }
+
+  it('ample rows with too FEW clusters is refused on the cluster floor', () => {
+    const v = fg.adjudicate(rows, { minN: 500, minClusters: 200 });
+    expect(v.verdict).toBe('CANDIDATE_PENDING_SAMPLE');
+    expect(v.reason).toMatch(/independent clusters/);
+    expect(v.clusters_needed).toBe(140);
+  });
+
+  it('too few ROWS is refused on the row floor even with many clusters', () => {
+    const thin = rows.filter((_, i) => i % 20 === 0);   // 60 rows, 60 clusters
+    const v = fg.adjudicate(thin, { minN: 500, minClusters: 40 });
+    expect(v.verdict).toBe('CANDIDATE_PENDING_SAMPLE');
+    expect(v.reason).toMatch(/^n 60 < 500/);
+  });
+
+  it('a venue-constant factor stays refused however many rows accrue', () => {
+    // 30 ballparks is the whole universe; rows can grow forever and the
+    // interval never becomes trustworthy.
+    const venues = [];
+    for (let v = 0; v < 30; v += 1) {
+      for (let i = 0; i < 200; i += 1) {
+        const base = 0.4 + rnd() * 0.2;
+        venues.push({ cluster: `v${v}`, baseline: base, conditioned: base - 0.03, won: rnd() < base ? 1 : 0 });
+      }
+    }
+    const v = fg.adjudicate(venues, { minN: 500 });
+    expect(venues.length).toBe(6000);
+    expect(v.verdict).toBe('CANDIDATE_PENDING_SAMPLE');
+    expect(v.improvement.effective_n).toBe(30);
+  });
+});

tests/unit/gradeBands.test.js

@@ -0,0 +1,153 @@
+'use strict';
+
+/**
+ * What a letter is allowed to mean.
+ *
+ * The failure these guard against is the one the whole programme keeps circling:
+ * a grade that LOOKS like it read tonight's matchup while reading nothing. Here
+ * that would be a band labelled factor-informed on an archetype where no factor
+ * ever proved — which is the state of every archetype today.
+ */
+
+const gb = require('../../src/services/model/gradeBands');
+
+/** n rows whose outcome rate genuinely tracks p, interleaved (never front-loaded). */
+function rows(specs) {
+  const out = [];
+  for (const [p, n, rate] of specs) {
+    for (let i = 0; i < n; i += 1) {
+      const won = Math.floor((i + 1) * rate) > Math.floor(i * rate) ? 1 : 0;
+      out.push({ p, won });
+    }
+  }
+  return out;
+}
+
+describe('the two-bar rule is structural', () => {
+  const data = rows([[0.75, 120, 0.75], [0.6, 120, 0.6], [0.45, 120, 0.45]]);
+
+  it('with NOTHING proven — the state today — no band can be factor-informed', () => {
+    const out = gb.buildBands(data, { archetype: 'GHOST' });
+    expect(out.basis).toBe('base_rate');
+    expect(out.two_bar.factor_informed_allowed).toBe(false);
+    expect(out.two_bar.reason).toMatch(/no factor has passed the gate/);
+    expect(out.bands.every((b) => b.basis === 'base_rate')).toBe(true);
+  });
+
+  it('PROVEN but not calibrated is still a base-rate read, and names why', () => {
+    // Both bars, or neither claim. A proven factor whose numbers are not
+    // certified honest cannot carry a letter that asserts a rate.
+    const out = gb.buildBands(data, { archetype: 'GHOST', proven: true });
+    expect(out.basis).toBe('base_rate');
+    expect(out.two_bar.reason).toMatch(/not certified calibrated/);
+  });
+
+  it('CALIBRATED but not proven is still a base-rate read', () => {
+    const out = gb.buildBands(data, { archetype: 'GHOST', calibrated: true });
+    expect(out.basis).toBe('base_rate');
+    expect(out.two_bar.reason).toMatch(/no factor has passed the gate/);
+  });
+
+  it('only BOTH unlocks factor-informed', () => {
+    const out = gb.buildBands(data, { archetype: 'GHOST', proven: true, calibrated: true });
+    expect(out.basis).toBe('factor_informed');
+    expect(out.bands.every((b) => b.basis === 'factor_informed')).toBe(true);
+  });
+});
+
+describe('lift is measured against the archetype\'s OWN base rate', () => {
+  it('a band is only credited when its interval clears the base rate', () => {
+    const out = gb.buildBands(rows([[0.8, 200, 0.80], [0.5, 200, 0.50], [0.3, 200, 0.30]]), {
+      archetype: 'GHOST', targetBands: 3,
+    });
+    const top = out.bands[0];
+    expect(top.shows_lift).toBe(true);
+    expect(top.separation).toBe('above_base_rate');
+    expect(top.lift_vs_archetype_base).toBeGreaterThan(0);
+    const bottom = out.bands[out.bands.length - 1];
+    expect(bottom.shows_deficit).toBe(true);
+  });
+
+  it('the same realized rate is lift for one archetype and not for another', () => {
+    // 62% is a real read for a profile that hits 45%, and slightly under water
+    // for one that hits 68%. A raw-rate band would call both the same letter.
+    const lowBase = gb.buildBands(rows([[0.62, 300, 0.62], [0.4, 300, 0.40]]), { archetype: 'LOW', targetBands: 2 });
+    const highBase = gb.buildBands(rows([[0.62, 300, 0.62], [0.75, 300, 0.75]]), { archetype: 'HIGH', targetBands: 2 });
+    expect(lowBase.bands[0].shows_lift).toBe(true);
+    expect(highBase.bands.find((b) => b.p_range[0] === 0.62).shows_deficit).toBe(true);
+  });
+
+  it('a band indistinguishable from the base rate claims NO lift', () => {
+    const flat = gb.buildBands(rows([[0.7, 150, 0.55], [0.5, 150, 0.55], [0.3, 150, 0.55]]), { archetype: 'FLAT' });
+    for (const b of flat.bands) {
+      expect(b.shows_lift).toBe(false);
+      expect(b.separation).toBe('indistinguishable_from_base_rate');
+    }
+    expect(flat.bands_showing_lift).toBe(0);
+  });
+});
+
+describe('bands the ledger cannot stand behind', () => {
+  it('indistinguishable neighbours are MERGED, not published as different letters', () => {
+    // If we cannot tell two bands apart, calling one A and one B is a
+    // distinction we have not measured.
+    const out = gb.buildBands(rows([[0.7, 200, 0.60], [0.65, 200, 0.60], [0.6, 200, 0.60]]), {
+      archetype: 'SAME', targetBands: 5,
+    });
+    expect(out.bands.length).toBe(1);
+  });
+
+  it('thin bands are PROVISIONAL, not silently dropped', () => {
+    // "Still counting" and "nothing here" are different claims.
+    const out = gb.buildBands(rows([[0.8, 20, 0.8], [0.3, 20, 0.3]]), { archetype: 'THIN', targetBands: 2 });
+    expect(out.bands.some((b) => b.provisional)).toBe(true);
+  });
+
+  it('too few outcomes → no bands at all, with the refusal stated', () => {
+    const out = gb.buildBands(rows([[0.6, 5, 0.6]]), { archetype: 'TINY' });
+    expect(out.bands).toEqual([]);
+    expect(out.refused).toMatch(/insufficient settled outcomes/);
+  });
+
+  it('the cumulative correction WIDENS every interval', () => {
+    const data = rows([[0.75, 150, 0.75], [0.45, 150, 0.45]]);
+    const one = gb.buildBands(data, { archetype: 'X', cumulativeTests: 1, targetBands: 2 });
+    const many = gb.buildBands(data, { archetype: 'X', cumulativeTests: 99, targetBands: 2 });
+    const width = (o) => o.bands[0].ci[1] - o.bands[0].ci[0];
+    expect(width(many)).toBeGreaterThan(width(one));
+  });
+
+  it('the interval never runs past 0 or 1', () => {
+    const out = gb.buildBands(rows([[0.99, 60, 1.0], [0.01, 60, 0.0]]), { archetype: 'EDGE', targetBands: 2 });
+    for (const b of out.bands) {
+      expect(b.ci[0]).toBeGreaterThanOrEqual(0);
+      expect(b.ci[1]).toBeLessThanOrEqual(1);
+    }
+  });
+});
+
+describe('the reason attached to a grade is true or absent', () => {
+  it('a base-rate band SAYS it is a base-rate read', () => {
+    const out = gb.buildBands(rows([[0.75, 120, 0.75], [0.45, 120, 0.45]]), { archetype: 'BOMBER', targetBands: 2 });
+    const text = gb.reasoning(out.bands[0], { archetype: 'BOMBER' });
+    expect(text).toMatch(/base-rate read/);
+    expect(text).toMatch(/no matchup factor is proven/);
+    // The thing it must never do is imply a matchup was read.
+    expect(text).not.toMatch(/matchup edge|favourable matchup/i);
+  });
+
+  it('a factor-informed band with NO named proven factors returns nothing', () => {
+    // Better to say nothing than to invent the why.
+    const out = gb.buildBands(rows([[0.75, 120, 0.75], [0.45, 120, 0.45]]),
+      { archetype: 'GHOST', proven: true, calibrated: true, targetBands: 2 });
+    expect(gb.reasoning(out.bands[0], { archetype: 'GHOST', provenFactors: [] })).toBeNull();
+  });
+
+  it('a factor-informed band names the factors that actually proved', () => {
+    const out = gb.buildBands(rows([[0.75, 120, 0.75], [0.45, 120, 0.45]]),
+      { archetype: 'GHOST', proven: true, calibrated: true, targetBands: 2 });
+    const text = gb.reasoning(out.bands[0], { archetype: 'GHOST', provenFactors: ['defense_by_direction'] });
+    expect(text).toMatch(/GHOST: defense_by_direction/);
+    expect(text).toMatch(/proved for this profile/);
+  });
+});

tests/unit/hitsFactors.test.js

@@ -0,0 +1,88 @@
+'use strict';
+
+/**
+ * The three proven hits factors, on the serving path at last.
+ *
+ * What these lock: the SIGN each factor moves the forecast, and that every
+ * unreadable case leaves it completely alone. A factor that nudges toward a
+ * default on missing input is fabricating a read from an absence.
+ */
+
+const hf = require('../../src/services/model/hitsFactors');
+
+const pullGround = { pull_gb: 0.45, straight_gb: 0.10, oppo_gb: 0.05, pull_air: 0.20, straight_air: 0.12, oppo_air: 0.08 };
+const pos = (o) => Object.fromEntries(Object.entries(o).map(([k, v]) => [k, { oaa: v, fielders: 2 }]));
+const side = (avg, pa) => ({ pa, atBats: Math.round(pa * 0.9), hits: Math.round(pa * 0.9 * avg) });
+const bigSplit = { vl: side(0.284, 183), vr: side(0.221, 291) };
+
+describe('each factor moves the forecast in the direction it proved', () => {
+  it('TOUGH spray defence lowers the hit forecast', () => {
+    const eliteLeft = pos({ '3B': 12, SS: 10, '1B': 0, '2B': 0, LF: 0, CF: 0, RF: 0 });
+    const out = hf.adjustProbability(0.6, { spray: pullGround, bats: 'R', positionOaa: eliteLeft });
+    expect(out.p_adjusted).toBeLessThan(0.6);
+    expect(out.applied.map((a) => a.factor)).toContain('defense_by_direction');
+  });
+
+  it('a CONTACT-ALLOWING pitcher raises it; a bat-misser lowers it', () => {
+    const soft = hf.adjustProbability(0.6, { pitcherHardHit: 0.46 });
+    const tough = hf.adjustProbability(0.6, { pitcherHardHit: 0.31 });
+    expect(soft.p_adjusted).toBeGreaterThan(0.6);
+    expect(tough.p_adjusted).toBeLessThan(0.6);
+  });
+
+  it('a PLATOON disadvantage lowers it, the edge raises it', () => {
+    const edge = hf.adjustProbability(0.6, { platoonSplits: bigSplit, bats: 'R', throws: 'L' });
+    const wrongSide = hf.adjustProbability(0.6, { platoonSplits: bigSplit, bats: 'R', throws: 'R' });
+    expect(edge.p_adjusted).toBeGreaterThan(0.6);
+    expect(wrongSide.p_adjusted).toBeLessThan(0.6);
+  });
+});
+
+describe('unreadable means UNTOUCHED, never nudged to a default', () => {
+  it('a SWITCH hitter gets no spray adjustment', () => {
+    const out = hf.adjustProbability(0.6, { spray: pullGround, bats: 'S', positionOaa: pos({ '3B': 12, SS: 10 }) });
+    expect(out.applied.find((a) => a.factor === 'defense_by_direction')).toBeUndefined();
+    expect(out.skipped.map((s) => s.factor)).toContain('defense_by_direction');
+  });
+
+  it('a THIN platoon split is refused, not shrunk toward league', () => {
+    const thin = { vl: side(0.350, 25), vr: side(0.250, 400) };
+    const out = hf.adjustProbability(0.6, { platoonSplits: thin, bats: 'R', throws: 'L' });
+    expect(out.applied.find((a) => a.factor === 'platoon_severity')).toBeUndefined();
+  });
+
+  it('no pitcher profile contributes nothing at all', () => {
+    expect(hf.pitcherContactMultiplier(null)).toBeNull();
+    const out = hf.adjustProbability(0.6, { pitcherHardHit: null });
+    expect(out.p_adjusted).toBe(0.6);
+  });
+
+  it('with NOTHING readable the forecast is returned exactly', () => {
+    const out = hf.adjustProbability(0.6, {});
+    expect(out.p_adjusted).toBe(0.6);
+    expect(out.multiplier).toBe(1);
+    expect(out.factors_fired).toBe(0);
+  });
+
+  it('a null forecast stays null — no factor invents one', () => {
+    expect(hf.adjustProbability(null, { pitcherHardHit: 0.46 }).p_adjusted).toBeNull();
+  });
+});
+
+describe('composition', () => {
+  it('three factors compound, and the stack is bounded', () => {
+    const out = hf.adjustProbability(0.6, {
+      spray: pullGround, bats: 'R', positionOaa: pos({ '3B': -12, SS: -12, '1B': -12, '2B': -12, LF: -12, CF: -12, RF: -12 }),
+      pitcherHardHit: 0.46, platoonSplits: bigSplit, throws: 'L',
+    });
+    expect(out.factors_fired).toBe(3);
+    expect(out.multiplier).toBeLessThanOrEqual(1 + hf.COMBINED_MAX);
+    expect(out.multiplier).toBeGreaterThanOrEqual(1 - hf.COMBINED_MAX);
+  });
+
+  it('partial readability applies only what is readable', () => {
+    const out = hf.adjustProbability(0.6, { pitcherHardHit: 0.46, bats: 'S', spray: pullGround, positionOaa: pos({ '3B': 5 }) });
+    expect(out.factors_fired).toBe(1);
+    expect(out.applied[0].factor).toBe('pitcher_contact_profile');
+  });
+});

tests/unit/lowParamCalibrator.test.js

@@ -0,0 +1,148 @@
+'use strict';
+
+/**
+ * The two-parameter correction that replaces isotonic on a thin sample.
+ *
+ * What these protect: that it CANNOT chase day-structure (two parameters over
+ * the whole curve), and that a thin fit is applied at reduced strength rather
+ * than at face value.
+ */
+
+const lp = require('../../src/services/model/lowParamCalibrator');
+
+/** An over-confident forecaster: predicts p, actually hits closer to the mean. */
+function overConfident(n, dates = 10, seed = 3) {
+  let s = seed;
+  const rnd = () => (s = (s * 1103515245 + 12345) % 2147483648) / 2147483648;
+  const rows = [];
+  for (let i = 0; i < n; i += 1) {
+    const p = 0.5 + rnd() * 0.45;
+    const truth = 0.5 + (p - 0.5) * 0.4;       // real skill is 40% of claimed
+    rows.push({ date: `d${i % dates}`, p, won: rnd() < truth ? 1 : 0 });
+  }
+  return rows;
+}
+
+describe('it fits the favourite-longshot shape', () => {
+  it('FLATTENS an over-confident forecaster (a < 1)', () => {
+    const m = lp.fitPlatt(overConfident(2000));
+    expect(m).not.toBeNull();
+    expect(m.flattens).toBe(true);
+    expect(m.a).toBeLessThan(1);
+  });
+
+  it('pulls high predictions down and leaves the middle nearly alone', () => {
+    const m = lp.fitPlatt(overConfident(2000));
+    const hi = lp.applyPlatt(m, 0.92);
+    const mid = lp.applyPlatt(m, 0.55);
+    expect(hi).toBeLessThan(0.92);
+    expect(Math.abs(mid - 0.55)).toBeLessThan(Math.abs(hi - 0.92));
+  });
+
+  it('stays monotone — ordering is never disturbed', () => {
+    const m = lp.fitPlatt(overConfident(2000));
+    let prev = -1;
+    for (let p = 0.05; p <= 0.95; p += 0.05) {
+      const v = lp.applyPlatt(m, p);
+      expect(v).toBeGreaterThan(prev);
+      prev = v;
+    }
+  });
+
+  it('leaves an already-honest forecaster essentially alone', () => {
+    let s = 11;
+    const rnd = () => (s = (s * 1103515245 + 12345) % 2147483648) / 2147483648;
+    const rows = [];
+    for (let i = 0; i < 2000; i += 1) {
+      const p = 0.3 + rnd() * 0.6;
+      rows.push({ date: `d${i % 12}`, p, won: rnd() < p ? 1 : 0 });
+    }
+    const m = lp.fitPlatt(rows);
+    expect(Math.abs(lp.applyPlatt(m, 0.8) - 0.8)).toBeLessThan(0.06);
+  });
+});
+
+describe('shrinkage — a thin fit is applied at reduced strength', () => {
+  it('scales with the number of fit DATES, not rows', () => {
+    const few = lp.fitPlatt(overConfident(2000, 5));
+    const many = lp.fitPlatt(overConfident(2000, 40));
+    expect(few.fit_rows).toBe(many.fit_rows);          // same rows
+    expect(few.shrinkage).toBeLessThan(many.shrinkage); // different dates
+    expect(few.shrinkage).toBeCloseTo(5 / 15, 3);
+    expect(many.shrinkage).toBeCloseTo(40 / 50, 3);
+  });
+
+  it('a 5-date fit corrects less than a 40-date fit on the same input', () => {
+    const few = lp.fitPlatt(overConfident(2000, 5));
+    const many = lp.fitPlatt(overConfident(2000, 40));
+    // Both flatten; the thin one is held closer to the raw number.
+    expect(Math.abs(lp.applyPlatt(few, 0.92) - 0.92))
+      .toBeLessThan(Math.abs(lp.applyPlatt(many, 0.92) - 0.92));
+  });
+});
+
+describe('honesty', () => {
+  it('refuses to fit below the row floor', () => {
+    expect(lp.fitPlatt(overConfident(40))).toBeNull();
+    expect(lp.fitPlatt([])).toBeNull();
+    expect(lp.fitPlatt(null)).toBeNull();
+  });
+
+  it('an unreadable input returns null, never an uncorrected number', () => {
+    const m = lp.fitPlatt(overConfident(2000));
+    expect(lp.applyPlatt(m, null)).toBeNull();
+    expect(lp.applyPlatt(null, 0.7)).toBeNull();
+  });
+
+  it('has exactly two parameters — it CANNOT encode a single odd day', () => {
+    // This is the whole reason it replaces isotonic here.
+    const m = lp.fitPlatt(overConfident(2000));
+    const shape = Object.keys(m).filter((k) => k === 'a' || k === 'b');
+    expect(shape.sort()).toEqual(['a', 'b']);
+  });
+});
+
+describe('the slope must CORRECT, not abandon the forecast', () => {
+  /** A forecaster whose p_win carries no information at all. */
+  function uninformative(n, seed = 7) {
+    let s = seed;
+    const rnd = () => (s = (s * 1103515245 + 12345) % 2147483648) / 2147483648;
+    const rows = [];
+    for (let i = 0; i < n; i += 1) rows.push({ date: `d${i % 8}`, p: 0.4 + rnd() * 0.5, won: rnd() < 0.55 ? 1 : 0 });
+    return rows;
+  }
+
+  it('REFUSES a fit whose slope collapses to a constant', () => {
+    // Shrinking a miscalibrated forecaster toward its base rate always lowers
+    // Brier, so this would score as a win while destroying all resolution.
+    const m = lp.fitPlatt(uninformative(3000));
+    expect(m.refused).toBe(true);
+    expect(m.reason).toMatch(/collapses to a constant|invert/);
+  });
+
+  it('a refused fit produces no calibrated number at all', () => {
+    const m = lp.fitPlatt(uninformative(3000));
+    expect(lp.applyPlatt(m, 0.8)).toBeNull();
+  });
+
+  it('an INVERTING slope is refused by name', () => {
+    // Real case: runs fitted a = -0.032, which would reverse every ordering.
+    let s = 5;
+    const rnd = () => (s = (s * 1103515245 + 12345) % 2147483648) / 2147483648;
+    const rows = [];
+    for (let i = 0; i < 3000; i += 1) {
+      const p = 0.4 + rnd() * 0.5;
+      rows.push({ date: `d${i % 8}`, p, won: rnd() < (0.9 - p) ? 1 : 0 });   // backwards
+    }
+    const m = lp.fitPlatt(rows);
+    expect(m.refused).toBe(true);
+    expect(m.a).toBeLessThanOrEqual(lp.MIN_SLOPE);
+  });
+
+  it('still accepts a genuine flattening', () => {
+    const m = lp.fitPlatt(overConfident(2000));
+    expect(m.refused).toBeUndefined();
+    expect(m.a).toBeGreaterThan(lp.MIN_SLOPE);
+    expect(m.a).toBeLessThan(1);
+  });
+});

tests/unit/parkWeather.test.js

@@ -0,0 +1,125 @@
+'use strict';
+
+/**
+ * Park geometry and air, read onto hit type.
+ *
+ * The failure these guard against is the one a single park multiplier cannot
+ * even express: a deep gap and a short line push total bases in OPPOSITE
+ * directions, and a model that collapses them to one number is confidently
+ * wrong at both ends.
+ */
+
+const pw = require('../../src/services/model/parkWeather');
+
+const LEAGUE_PARKS = [
+  { left_line: 330, left_center: 375, center: 405, right_center: 375, right_line: 330 },
+  { left_line: 335, left_center: 380, center: 410, right_center: 375, right_line: 325 },
+  { left_line: 325, left_center: 370, center: 400, right_center: 370, right_line: 335 },
+];
+const league = pw.leagueGeometry(LEAGUE_PARKS);
+
+const park = (o) => ({
+  left_line: 330, left_center: 375, center: 405, right_center: 375, right_line: 330,
+  roof_type: 'Open', elevation: 500, ...o,
+});
+const wx = (t) => ({ wx_temp_f: t, wx_wind_speed_mph: 12, wx_wind_direction_deg: 220 });
+
+describe('geometry separates the two things one park factor cannot', () => {
+  it('deep gaps make doubles and triples; short lines make home runs', () => {
+    const deepGaps = pw.parkWeatherRead({ dims: park({ left_center: 410, right_center: 410, center: 440 }), wx: wx(72), league });
+    const shortLines = pw.parkWeatherRead({ dims: park({ left_line: 300, right_line: 300 }), wx: wx(72), league });
+
+    expect(deepGaps.multipliers.double).toBeGreaterThan(1);
+    expect(deepGaps.multipliers.triple).toBeGreaterThan(1);
+    expect(shortLines.multipliers.home_run).toBeGreaterThan(1);
+    // The whole reason a single multiplier fails: these two parks both "inflate
+    // offence" and they inflate completely different offence.
+    expect(deepGaps.multipliers.home_run).toBeLessThan(shortLines.multipliers.home_run);
+  });
+
+  it('a deep park suppresses home runs relative to a shallow one', () => {
+    const deep = pw.parkWeatherRead({ dims: park({ left_line: 360, right_line: 360 }), wx: wx(72), league });
+    expect(deep.multipliers.home_run).toBeLessThan(1);
+  });
+});
+
+describe('air is read where it exists and nowhere else', () => {
+  it('heat adds carry, cold removes it', () => {
+    const hot = pw.parkWeatherRead({ dims: park(), wx: wx(95), league });
+    const cold = pw.parkWeatherRead({ dims: park(), wx: wx(45), league });
+    expect(hot.multipliers.home_run).toBeGreaterThan(cold.multipliers.home_run);
+    expect(hot.carry).toBeGreaterThan(0);
+    expect(cold.carry).toBeLessThan(0);
+  });
+
+  it('altitude carries on its own', () => {
+    const denver = pw.parkWeatherRead({ dims: park({ elevation: 5200 }), wx: wx(72), league });
+    const sea = pw.parkWeatherRead({ dims: park({ elevation: 20 }), wx: wx(72), league });
+    expect(denver.multipliers.home_run).toBeGreaterThan(sea.multipliers.home_run);
+  });
+
+  it('a CLOSED roof does not apply the outside temperature', () => {
+    // The ball is not flying through the weather; pretending otherwise would
+    // read a dome game off the sky above it.
+    const domeHot = pw.parkWeatherRead({ dims: park({ roof_type: 'Dome' }), wx: wx(95), league });
+    const domeCold = pw.parkWeatherRead({ dims: park({ roof_type: 'Dome' }), wx: wx(45), league });
+    expect(domeHot.multipliers.home_run).toBeCloseTo(domeCold.multipliers.home_run, 6);
+    expect(domeHot.air_inputs).not.toContain('temperature');
+    expect(domeHot.air_inputs).toContain('elevation');
+  });
+
+  it('absent temperature contributes nothing rather than a reference value', () => {
+    const r = pw.parkWeatherRead({ dims: park(), wx: { wx_temp_f: null }, league });
+    expect(r.air_inputs).not.toContain('temperature');
+    expect(r.readable).toBe(true);
+  });
+});
+
+describe('wind is refused, loudly', () => {
+  it('never reads wind, and says so on every read', () => {
+    // Speed and bearing are both present. They are still not enough: without
+    // park orientation the same bearing is blowing out at one park and in at
+    // another, and using speed alone would assert an effect while discarding
+    // the sign that decides what the effect is.
+    const calm = pw.parkWeatherRead({ dims: park(), wx: { wx_temp_f: 72, wx_wind_speed_mph: 0, wx_wind_direction_deg: 0 }, league });
+    const gale = pw.parkWeatherRead({ dims: park(), wx: { wx_temp_f: 72, wx_wind_speed_mph: 35, wx_wind_direction_deg: 220 }, league });
+    expect(gale.multipliers).toEqual(calm.multipliers);
+    expect(gale.wind_readable).toBe(false);
+    expect(gale.wind_reason).toMatch(/orientation/);
+  });
+});
+
+describe('honesty', () => {
+  it('no park at all → null, not a neutral-looking read', () => {
+    expect(pw.parkWeatherRead({ dims: null, wx: wx(72), league })).toBeNull();
+    expect(pw.parkWeatherRead({ dims: park(), wx: wx(72), league: null })).toBeNull();
+  });
+
+  it('a league-average park in reference air leaves the shape alone', () => {
+    const r = pw.parkWeatherRead({ dims: park({ left_line: league.left_line, right_line: league.right_line, left_center: league.left_center, right_center: league.right_center, center: league.center }), wx: wx(pw.REF_TEMP_F), league });
+    expect(r.multipliers.home_run).toBeCloseTo(1, 2);
+    expect(r.multipliers.double).toBeCloseTo(1, 2);
+  });
+
+  it('the effect is bounded however absurd the park', () => {
+    const absurd = pw.parkWeatherRead({ dims: park({ left_line: 200, right_line: 200, elevation: 30000 }), wx: wx(130), league });
+    for (const v of Object.values(absurd.multipliers)) {
+      expect(v).toBeLessThanOrEqual(1 + pw.MAX_EFFECT + 1e-9);
+      expect(v).toBeGreaterThanOrEqual(1 - pw.MAX_EFFECT - 1e-9);
+    }
+  });
+
+  it('reshaped shares remain a distribution', () => {
+    const r = pw.parkWeatherRead({ dims: park({ left_center: 410, right_center: 410 }), wx: wx(90), league });
+    const out = pw.applyToShares({ single: 0.66, double: 0.20, triple: 0.02, home_run: 0.12 }, r);
+    const sum = Object.values(out).reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0);
+    expect(sum).toBeCloseTo(1, 3);
+    expect(out.double).toBeGreaterThan(0.20);
+  });
+
+  it('NO read means NO sentence', () => {
+    expect(pw.explain(null, 'Coors Field')).toBeNull();
+    expect(pw.explain(pw.parkWeatherRead({ dims: park({ elevation: 5200 }), wx: wx(72), league }), 'Coors Field'))
+      .toMatch(/Coors Field/);
+  });
+});

tests/unit/penQuality.test.js

@@ -0,0 +1,78 @@
+'use strict';
+
+/**
+ * The proven half of Link 2.
+ *
+ * Two grains were tested. These lock the one that earned a place and the
+ * refusals that keep the other from creeping back in.
+ */
+
+const pq = require('../../src/services/model/penQuality');
+
+const games = (n, q) => Array.from({ length: n }, () => ({ quality: q }));
+
+describe('abstains rather than imputing', () => {
+  it('an arm below the appearance floor has no readable quality', () => {
+    expect(pq.armQuality({ pa: 12, hits: 3 })).toBeNull();
+    expect(pq.armQuality({ pa: 60, hits: 12 })).toBeCloseTo(0.2, 6);
+  });
+
+  it('a club with too few prior games returns null, not a league-average pen', () => {
+    // A league-average stand-in asserts "this is an ordinary bullpen" — a claim,
+    // and usually the wrong one for exactly the clubs whose pens just turned over.
+    expect(pq.projectPen(games(3, 0.22))).toBeNull();
+    expect(pq.projectPen([])).toBeNull();
+    expect(pq.projectPen(null)).toBeNull();
+    expect(pq.projectPen(games(8, 0.22)).readable).toBe(true);
+  });
+
+  it('unreadable quality produces no shift at all', () => {
+    expect(pq.hitRateShift(null)).toBeNull();
+    expect(pq.hitRateShift(undefined)).toBeNull();
+  });
+});
+
+describe('the grain that proved, and the two that did not', () => {
+  it('reports pen QUALITY and names what it refuses', () => {
+    const pen = pq.projectPen(games(10, 0.24));
+    expect(pen.grain).toBe('pen_quality');
+    expect(pen.individual_arm_refused).toMatch(/17.2%/);
+    expect(pen.archetype_refused).toMatch(/did not prove/);
+    // The module must not offer an archetype — that grain did not earn one.
+    expect(pen.archetype).toBeUndefined();
+  });
+});
+
+describe('the shift follows the measured direction', () => {
+  it('a weaker pen raises the hit rate, a stronger one lowers it', () => {
+    expect(pq.hitRateShift(0.26)).toBeGreaterThan(0);
+    expect(pq.hitRateShift(0.19)).toBeLessThan(0);
+    expect(pq.hitRateShift(pq.LEAGUE_PEN_QUALITY)).toBeCloseTo(0, 6);
+  });
+
+  it('is bounded — it was measured over a range, not extrapolated past one', () => {
+    expect(pq.hitRateShift(0.9)).toBeLessThanOrEqual(pq.MAX_SHIFT + 1e-9);
+    expect(pq.hitRateShift(0.01)).toBeGreaterThanOrEqual(-pq.MAX_SHIFT - 1e-9);
+  });
+
+  it('reproduces the measured tercile separation', () => {
+    // Predicted-best pens averaged 0.2114 actual quality and a 0.2231 realized
+    // hit rate; predicted-worst 0.2425 and 0.2501 — a 2.70pp gap.
+    const gap = pq.hitRateShift(0.2425) - pq.hitRateShift(0.2114);
+    expect(gap).toBeGreaterThan(0.02);
+    expect(gap).toBeLessThan(0.035);
+  });
+});
+
+describe('reasoning is true or absent', () => {
+  it('no read means no sentence', () => {
+    expect(pq.explain(null)).toBeNull();
+    expect(pq.explain({ readable: false })).toBeNull();
+  });
+
+  it('names the direction and how much was read', () => {
+    expect(pq.explain(pq.projectPen(games(12, 0.25)))).toMatch(/weaker than league over 12 prior games/);
+    expect(pq.explain(pq.projectPen(games(12, 0.20)))).toMatch(/stronger than league/);
+    expect(pq.explain(pq.projectPen(games(12, 0.2261)))).toMatch(/league-average/);
+  });
+});

tests/unit/predictionGate.test.js

@@ -0,0 +1,100 @@
+'use strict';
+
+/**
+ * The two-part gate for a CONTINUOUS prediction.
+ *
+ * Same discipline as factorGate, different units — and the same dangerous
+ * failure: a link that moves off the naive baseline while predicting nothing
+ * makes the projection LOOK like it read the game script.
+ */
+
+const pg = require('../../src/services/model/predictionGate');
+
+/** n rows where the prediction tracks truth to a given degree. */
+function rows(n, { skill = 1, clusters = 60, seed = 5 } = {}) {
+  let s = seed;
+  const rnd = () => (s = (s * 1103515245 + 12345) % 2147483648) / 2147483648;
+  const out = [];
+  for (let i = 0; i < n; i += 1) {
+    const actual = 20 + (rnd() - 0.5) * 12;
+    const noise = (rnd() - 0.5) * 12;
+    out.push({
+      cluster: `c${i % clusters}`,
+      baseline: 20,
+      prediction: 20 + skill * (actual - 20) + (1 - skill) * noise,
+      actual,
+    });
+  }
+  return out;
+}
+
+describe('a link that genuinely predicts', () => {
+  it('PROVES when it beats the naive baseline out-of-sample', () => {
+    const v = pg.adjudicate(rows(1200, { skill: 0.8 }), { link: 'good' });
+    expect(v.verdict).toBe('PROVES');
+    expect(v.improvement.loss_delta).toBeLessThan(0);
+    expect(v.improvement.ci[1]).toBeLessThan(0);
+  });
+
+  it('does NOT binarise the target — that is why factorGate cannot do this job', () => {
+    // Brier collapses the outcome to 0/1. A target like "batters faced" would be
+    // destroyed by that, so the loss here stays on the real scale.
+    const v = pg.adjudicate(rows(1200, { skill: 0.9 }), { link: 'scale' });
+    expect(v.improvement.loss_baseline).toBeGreaterThan(1);
+  });
+});
+
+describe('the failures it must name', () => {
+  it('THEATER — moves off the baseline and predicts nothing', () => {
+    const v = pg.adjudicate(rows(1200, { skill: 0 }), { link: 'noise' });
+    expect(v.verdict).toBe('THEATER');
+    expect(v.movement.mean_abs_shift).toBeGreaterThan(0);
+    expect(v.consequence).toMatch(/LOOK like it read/);
+  });
+
+  it('INERT — never departs from the baseline at all', () => {
+    const flat = rows(1200, { skill: 0 }).map((r) => ({ ...r, prediction: r.baseline }));
+    const v = pg.adjudicate(flat, { link: 'flat', minMovement: 0.01 });
+    expect(v.verdict).toBe('INERT');
+  });
+
+  it('thin sample is PENDING, never a verdict', () => {
+    const v = pg.adjudicate(rows(100, { skill: 0.9 }), { link: 'thin' });
+    expect(v.verdict).toBe('PENDING_SAMPLE');
+    expect(v.rows_needed).toBe(400);
+  });
+});
+
+describe('replication is counted in arms, not in starts', () => {
+  it('refuses when the entity it rides on has too few clusters', () => {
+    // 39,629 post-starter plate appearances across 30 bullpens is 30 readings.
+    const v = pg.adjudicate(rows(5000, { skill: 0.9, clusters: 30 }), { link: 'bullpen' });
+    expect(v.verdict).toBe('PENDING_SAMPLE');
+    expect(v.reason).toMatch(/30 independent clusters < 40/);
+    expect(v.clusters_needed).toBe(10);
+  });
+
+  it('the clustered interval is wider than the unclustered one', () => {
+    const r = rows(1500, { skill: 0.5, clusters: 45 });
+    const clustered = pg.adjudicate(r, { link: 'a' });
+    const flat = pg.adjudicate(r.map(({ cluster, ...x }) => x), { link: 'b' });
+    const w = (v) => v.improvement.ci[1] - v.improvement.ci[0];
+    expect(w(clustered)).toBeGreaterThan(w(flat));
+  });
+
+  it('the cumulative correction widens the interval', () => {
+    const r = rows(1500, { skill: 0.6 });
+    const one = pg.adjudicate(r, { cumulativeTests: 1 });
+    const many = pg.adjudicate(r, { cumulativeTests: 108 });
+    expect(many.improvement.ci_level).toBeGreaterThan(one.improvement.ci_level);
+  });
+});
+
+describe('honesty', () => {
+  it('an unreadable row is dropped, never zero-filled', () => {
+    const r = rows(600, { skill: 0.8 });
+    r[0].prediction = null; r[1].actual = null; r[2].baseline = null;
+    const v = pg.adjudicate(r, { minN: 100 });
+    expect(v.improvement.n).toBe(597);
+  });
+});

tests/unit/reAuditEligibility.test.js

@@ -0,0 +1,65 @@
+'use strict';
+
+/**
+ * Which settled rows a forward re-audit may use.
+ *
+ * The refusal these encode: no measurement on rows produced by the retired
+ * ten-game forecaster, and no reconstruction standing in for what was served.
+ */
+
+const el = require('../../src/services/model/reAuditEligibility');
+
+const row = (version, date) => ({ model_version: version, game_date: date });
+const OLD = 'engine1@2026-07-20';
+
+describe('eligibility is mechanical, not a promise', () => {
+  it('accepts only rows carrying the repaired champion marker', () => {
+    expect(el.isEligible(row(el.REPAIRED_CHAMPION_VERSION, '2026-08-08'))).toBe(true);
+    expect(el.isEligible(row(OLD, '2026-08-08'))).toBe(false);
+    expect(el.isEligible(row(null, '2026-08-08'))).toBe(false);
+    expect(el.isEligible(null)).toBe(false);
+  });
+
+  it('an all-old table blocks every measurement and says why', () => {
+    const a = el.assess(Array.from({ length: 500 }, (_, i) => row(OLD, `2026-07-${(i % 28) + 1}`)));
+    expect(a.eligible_rows).toBe(0);
+    expect(a.blocked_reason).toMatch(/nothing may be measured/);
+    for (const v of Object.values(a.ready)) expect(v.ready).toBe(false);
+  });
+
+  it('a MIXED table counts only the repaired rows — the invisible trap', () => {
+    // Once both generations sit in the same table, a naive count would happily
+    // fit a map on a blend of two different forecasters.
+    const mixed = [
+      ...Array.from({ length: 300 }, (_, i) => row(OLD, `2026-07-${(i % 20) + 1}`)),
+      ...Array.from({ length: 30 }, (_, i) => row(el.REPAIRED_CHAMPION_VERSION, `2026-08-${(i % 3) + 8}`)),
+    ];
+    const a = el.assess(mixed);
+    expect(a.total_rows).toBe(330);
+    expect(a.eligible_rows).toBe(30);
+    expect(a.eligible_dates).toBe(3);
+  });
+});
+
+describe('thresholds are per-measurement and pre-stated', () => {
+  it('unblocks each measurement independently at its own date bar', () => {
+    const dates = 10;
+    const rows = Array.from({ length: 400 }, (_, i) => row(el.REPAIRED_CHAMPION_VERSION, `2026-08-${(i % dates) + 8}`));
+    const a = el.assess(rows);
+    expect(a.eligible_dates).toBe(dates);
+    expect(a.ready.calibration_refit.ready).toBe(true);
+    expect(a.ready.hits_factor_lift.ready).toBe(true);
+    // The heavier measurements still wait.
+    expect(a.ready.prior_verdict_reaudit.ready).toBe(false);
+    expect(a.ready.rbi_lineup_slot_gate.ready).toBe(false);
+  });
+
+  it('counts DATES, not rows — the binding scarcity all session', () => {
+    const many = Array.from({ length: 5000 }, () => row(el.REPAIRED_CHAMPION_VERSION, '2026-08-08'));
+    expect(el.assess(many).ready.calibration_refit.ready).toBe(false);
+  });
+
+  it('the thresholds are frozen so they cannot drift', () => {
+    expect(Object.isFrozen(el.ACCRUAL)).toBe(true);
+  });
+});