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4aab18096f
Prove both on total bases -- and find that my own fix destroyed the backtest
builtbykev
2026-08-03 16:27:11 -04:00
c7cc8f5e52
Build the gate, run it, and find we were proving things on the wrong stat
builtbykev
2026-08-03 02:34:02 -04:00
258d8a6655
The skill engine: built, gated by construction, and Stage A honestly lost
builtbykev
2026-08-03 02:20:40 -04:00
c551bf0340
Reality assessment: the forward model exists, wired to the wrong side of the pipe
builtbykev
2026-08-03 00:53:56 -04:00
d8bf7765db
Decompose the champion: its whole edge is a hit-rate counter
builtbykev
2026-08-02 23:54:51 -04:00
f897c7ec06
hits-v1 fingerprint PASSED: 72/72 written in prod, 45 outside the band modelled anyway
builtbykev
2026-08-02 22:08:12 -04:00
3ba3dd28f3
Scoreboard every challenger; diagnose the 429 as odds-api, not PropLine
builtbykev
2026-08-02 22:07:43 -04:00
b06a84af80
Settlement has been dead since 2026-08-01: a 500-id filter overflowed the URL
builtbykev
2026-08-02 21:49:30 -04:00
2394fb04a1
Record the hits-v1 fingerprint as PENDING, and why
builtbykev
2026-08-02 19:07:58 -04:00
07626de3de
hits-v1: built on the right structure, measured honestly, REFUTED
builtbykev
2026-08-02 19:04:08 -04:00
d103ecf4c3
Disambiguate takeable: THREE questions shared one word, now three names
builtbykev
2026-08-02 18:19:17 -04:00
8c764c22a4
Structural hardening: unknown-is-not-zero + takeability-is-book-identity
builtbykev
2026-08-02 17:25:40 -04:00
f67245e1e5
Re-stamp A: 862 rows recovered by honest join (not 936 -- see deviation)
builtbykev
2026-08-02 16:22:06 -04:00
e29ab6fd6a
Takeable enforcement: verified on real rows, 1,006 tagged, re-stamp call ready
builtbykev
2026-08-02 14:24:28 -04:00
5de464330c
URGENT: anchor the ledger price/book/takeable to TAKEABLE books
builtbykev
2026-08-02 14:17:51 -04:00
08e5c908e6
Takeable audit: the ledger is contaminated, and I caused it
builtbykev
2026-08-02 14:09:14 -04:00
aa1228ec42
tb-v1 report + plan: diagnosis on trial, branch pre-registered
builtbykev
2026-08-02 03:34:14 -04:00
eabf3b5bcf
tb-v1: model total_bases as a compound outcome (challenger)
builtbykev
2026-08-02 03:29:23 -04:00
48706210fe
Diagnose proj-v1.1: concentrated mean failure, NOT a similarity problem
builtbykev
2026-08-02 02:50:13 -04:00
f5997778a2
Dormant-layer audit: nothing to connect; proj-v1.1 is live and losing
builtbykev
2026-08-02 01:51:00 -04:00
ec815b0e37
Matchup axis report + plan reconciled: three challengers now accruing
builtbykev
2026-08-02 01:15:51 -04:00
9ebd77b68e
Build the matchup/platoon axis: three joins fixed, axis now FIRES
builtbykev
2026-08-02 01:11:05 -04:00
9fc17a4689
Fix the team resolve properly: backfill the name BEFORE confirmation
builtbykev
2026-08-01 23:34:16 -04:00
cfda597fb5
Reconcile MASTER-PLAN to true state; next order = matchup axis
builtbykev
2026-08-01 23:30:03 -04:00
03efdda33c
Arm the S59 invariant by fixing its input; matchup sourcing = BUILDABLE
builtbykev
2026-08-01 23:29:00 -04:00
0d43fb7db8
arch-v1 axis audit: env/matchup were dead; environment fixed
builtbykev
2026-08-01 04:12:28 -04:00
4435856f46
Audit finds env/matchup axes DEAD in prod; fix the environment join
builtbykev
2026-08-01 04:05:43 -04:00
c9d56d5668
Audit endpoint: where the env/matchup context chain drops off
builtbykev
2026-08-01 04:01:57 -04:00
48a2f764ac
opportunity_drift: coverage 94%, collinearity PASSES, holdout n-blocked
builtbykev
2026-08-01 03:23:24 -04:00
092f8f09cd
Build opportunity_drift axis on challengerProjection (arch-v1)
builtbykev
2026-08-01 03:15:47 -04:00
8a02c75aec
Step 0 input check: stop before wiring opportunity, and why
builtbykev
2026-08-01 02:40:46 -04:00
212c08b11f
Fix the Step 0 probe: it was measuring itself, not the pipeline
builtbykev
2026-08-01 02:36:00 -04:00
3e78217678
Step 0 input check: read-only feature-coverage probe
builtbykev
2026-08-01 02:34:33 -04:00
ecdc644621
Fix superseded assertion after the ?limit= bisect hook
builtbykev
2026-08-01 02:23:24 -04:00
11b0139481
Verify the cap raise on prod: 7 -> 365 graded props
builtbykev
2026-08-01 02:22:30 -04:00
8d052131c5
Add a bisect hook (?limit=) to the internal snapshot trigger
builtbykev
2026-08-01 02:12:07 -04:00
a7d6cf8e36
Raise the grade cap 25 -> 500 on measured cost; refusals are correct
builtbykev
2026-08-01 02:06:25 -04:00
d18a19f6aa
Part 1 diagnostic: read-only refusal categoriser (25-cap + 72% refusal)
builtbykev
2026-08-01 02:02:53 -04:00
6c97f59546
WNBA truth correction + THE p_win FLIP (live, rollback armed)
builtbykev
2026-08-01 01:55:43 -04:00
ef4ac60b81
Per-sport rank guard + edge diagnostic-only display + delta report
builtbykev
2026-08-01 01:29:20 -04:00
86d123945c
Rank on p_win: challenger instrument + retire edge from decisions
builtbykev
2026-08-01 01:24:55 -04:00
7140e62b65
MLB re-run vs consensus ruler: premise dissolved, isotonic DECIDED
builtbykev
2026-08-01 01:12:47 -04:00
c79528abae
Order Zero: tier-reality report + widening fingerprint
builtbykev
2026-08-01 00:57:12 -04:00
68c5b65427
Thread book_role through the odds route grouping
builtbykev
2026-08-01 00:55:04 -04:00
f0543b57a4
Product identity + widen books for DISPLAY, model input byte-identical
builtbykev
2026-08-01 00:50:54 -04:00
1372e6bcf7
Order Zero Phases 1-3: keyed verification, ruler_version boundary, report
builtbykev
2026-07-31 23:52:28 -04:00
c38db1ad65
Fix: the incumbent ruler respects the allow-list (correcting my own model)
builtbykev
2026-07-31 23:47:13 -04:00
a55dd2a6a0
Order Zero Phase 2: three-way book split + challenger consensus ruler
builtbykev
2026-07-31 23:44:37 -04:00
c3bcfaba94
Order Zero Phase 1c: return the aggregate-only bodies in full
builtbykev
2026-07-31 23:39:38 -04:00
3c466d79cb
Order Zero Phase 1b: redaction detection + reference-policy curve
builtbykev
2026-07-31 23:37:23 -04:00
2071b79456
Order Zero Phase 1: keyed read-only PropLine verification endpoint
builtbykev
2026-07-31 23:34:03 -04:00
293367917c
Order Zero: book-breadth test + accrual clock correction (measure-only)
builtbykev
2026-07-31 23:19:23 -04:00
c98338ef23
plan: add §10 — aggregator + paid-model gaps, and the one root cause behind both
builtbykev
2026-07-31 22:35:16 -04:00
37ee952e26
plan: add §9 — what is actually missing for the product to work, not just be built
builtbykev
2026-07-31 22:16:11 -04:00
e3ca1650d9
plan: specs/MASTER-PLAN.md — single source of truth, 7 phases, ~23 orders, defined END
builtbykev
2026-07-31 22:15:10 -04:00
6d87d7a33c
report: p_win recalibration holdout — MLB qualifies on isotonic, WNBA abstains
builtbykev
2026-07-31 21:26:21 -04:00
249b3e8235
report: grade diagnostic T0 — p_win is MISCALIBRATED, and it explains the inversion
builtbykev
2026-07-31 20:12:20 -04:00
ea1157d709
report: grade fix Part 1 — the p_win-vs-fair_prob rebuild is REFUTED by the data
builtbykev
2026-07-31 19:57:21 -04:00
40c61fbb0b
report: resolution + CLV investigation — Part 1 premise false, Part 2 is an env flag
builtbykev
2026-07-31 19:38:19 -04:00
bedbb8c008
Build 2 Phase B: checkout claims atomically, webhook finalizes, bypass retired
builtbykev
2026-07-31 18:42:44 -04:00
7c6fd95e68
Build 2 Phase A: real founder cap — atomic claim, race PROVEN, flags collapsed
builtbykev
2026-07-31 17:19:39 -04:00
e970ab1ef3
report: Build 2 Review Zero — G1-G6 + DB verified; two order expectations wrong
builtbykev
2026-07-31 17:07:54 -04:00
14f3ce95b9
report: Build 2 Review Zero — payment mechanism BLOCKED, no Stripe credentials
builtbykev
2026-07-31 08:30:32 -04:00
e8b15c705a
docs: free proof surface recorded (/record, hollow-preserving, CLV honest-absent)
builtbykev
2026-07-31 07:56:08 -04:00
5930f18d81
Free proof surface: /record — tier-record-forward, honest CLV building panel
builtbykev
2026-07-31 07:53:44 -04:00
4c302b5722
report: free proof surface Review Zero — three of four leads have no data source
builtbykev
2026-07-31 07:43:12 -04:00
7cf3892e76
docs: corrected gate recorded + cache-busting verification lesson
builtbykev
2026-07-31 07:31:45 -04:00
713f90183f
Build 1 CORRECTED: itemized grades are PAID (live AND settled) — exploit killed
builtbykev
2026-07-31 07:29:24 -04:00
7ddf159e4a
docs: Build 1 settled/live gate recorded + live anonymous fingerprint
builtbykev
2026-07-31 07:21:36 -04:00
6d36e05bfe
Build 1: the settled/live gate — unresolved is paid, resolved is free
builtbykev
2026-07-31 07:19:51 -04:00
dbc1416485
docs: tier redesign spec recorded (gate discriminator exists; counter is display-only; base is 3 users)
builtbykev
2026-07-31 07:07:13 -04:00
4a4a3428d8
spec: tier redesign (Option 2, settled-free / live-paid) — design + build order
builtbykev
2026-07-31 07:06:33 -04:00
c6ef4cfb2b
docs: tier structure recorded — free board uncapped, board reasoning ungated vs config intent
builtbykev
2026-07-31 06:41:15 -04:00
844ab96f21
report: tier structure pull — the declared free-tier gate is unenforced on the board
builtbykev
2026-07-31 06:40:43 -04:00
43281bb885
report: D1-close Review Zero — mount not performed, three findings
builtbykev
2026-07-31 06:25:05 -04:00
a0501f99c0
docs: D1 finish recorded (rationale real-or-absent, reveal once-on-view, 10/80 chip coverage)
builtbykev
2026-07-31 06:18:42 -04:00
085e8a3a63
D1 finish: row-hover rationale, IntersectionObserver reveal, team-gradient chips
builtbykev
2026-07-31 06:18:12 -04:00
e34e99c426
docs: D1-A recorded (glyph buckets, boundary channel completed, primitives)
builtbykev
2026-07-31 06:04:50 -04:00
3d1a3c7794
D1-A: combat glyphs, boundary-channel blue, reaction primitives, READ-FAB
builtbykev
2026-07-31 06:04:19 -04:00
49565b5f02
docs: design-vs-build gap audit recorded (61 items, 6 build waves)
builtbykev
2026-07-31 05:46:32 -04:00
e257474cc8
report: design-vs-build gap audit — 61 items enumerated, 18 absent
builtbykev
2026-07-31 05:45:56 -04:00
91911cfb1c
docs: Wave 3 recorded — /compare live-verified; resolution tail scoped
builtbykev
2026-07-31 05:35:10 -04:00
bf7c0a3c08
Wave 3: /compare built (real head-to-head); resolution tail scoped, not shipped
builtbykev
2026-07-31 05:31:56 -04:00
831d09bdde
docs: Wave 1 wiring recorded + honest fingerprint limitation (nav entries -> Chrome audit)
builtbykev
2026-07-31 05:01:33 -04:00
ff7f5d8d2d
Wave 1: wire /intelligence, /slip, /parlay + /marketplace honesty pass
builtbykev
2026-07-31 04:51:42 -04:00
6328a5ce92
docs: boundary not written (no promotion); build triage waves recorded
builtbykev
2026-07-31 01:50:31 -04:00
e70c02aca0
report: incomplete-surface build triage; boundary tag NOT applied (no promotion exists)
builtbykev
2026-07-31 01:49:55 -04:00
d54eca0afc
report: pre-audit status pull — no promotion occurred; matrix re-derived (15/26)
builtbykev
2026-07-31 01:40:04 -04:00
10aaaeb1da
docs: promotion gate not passed (no flip); Order B edge_pct display retired
builtbykev
2026-07-31 00:58:34 -04:00
0997334f8b
Order B: retire edge_pct display. Promotion gate NOT passed — no flip.
builtbykev
2026-07-31 00:57:57 -04:00
1e9c808d99
docs: edge-shading challenger measured — flooding persists, input scale is the bug
builtbykev
2026-07-31 00:39:51 -04:00
c2c7abbb65
Edge-shading challenger: built + measured. Flooding NOT fixed — input scale is the bug
builtbykev
2026-07-31 00:39:13 -04:00
896e6e1a00
docs: takeable tagging shipped, efficiency challenger blocked (board + state)
builtbykev
2026-07-31 00:20:18 -04:00
2bfaeff572
Ledger takeable tagging (deferred C2); efficiency challenger BLOCKED
builtbykev
2026-07-31 00:19:13 -04:00
a6afac43cc
report: market-efficiency scaling check — FLAT, mechanism structurally absent
builtbykev
2026-07-30 23:56:48 -04:00
708f0fde5c
report: full-output grade mapping spec + collapse cost measured
builtbykev
2026-07-30 23:47:11 -04:00
dd98b0b614
report: model architecture recovery map — the live grade uses 0 of 3 specced layers
builtbykev
2026-07-30 23:16:34 -04:00
f3bf300b36
report: C1 takeable-floor derivation — CANNOT DERIVE (every bucket CI spans zero)
builtbykev
2026-07-30 16:05:09 -04:00
f310608ca4
docs: top-graded selector fingerprinted — strip-after-rank boundary proven in prod
builtbykev
2026-07-29 22:08:15 -04:00
72a14dc4cd
Build /api/props/top-graded server selector: rank with p_win, serve without it
builtbykev
2026-07-29 22:05:30 -04:00
builtbykev