builtbykev
4ddfb84232
The overnight cron gap (03→14 UTC) is 11h; a 6h snapshot TTL meant the morning settle pass read an expired snapshot and the accuracy loop silently settled nothing. Ledger (Postgres) settle was immune. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
81 lines
4.4 KiB
Markdown
81 lines
4.4 KiB
Markdown
# AUTONOMY — "Kev touches nothing for 7 days, what happens"
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Session 60 (night2), traced on d10bb4c + tonight's fixes. Every step cites
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its code. Verdict at the bottom.
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## The daily loop (all times ET / UTC)
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**10:00 AM ET (14:00 UTC) — cron slot 1** (`snapshotScheduler.js` HOURS_UTC
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= 14,19,22,1,3; armed by `SNAPSHOT_CRON=1` in server.js):
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1. **Settle pass runs FIRST** (`tick()` order: settleAllOutcomes →
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settleAllLedgers → runAllSnapshots):
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- `outcomeService.settleAllOutcomes` — settles yesterday's snapshot
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grades vs real MLB game logs → `outcomes:{sport}:log` +
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`accuracy:{sport}` + `accuracy:overall`.
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**P0 FIXED TONIGHT:** `SNAP_TTL` was 6h but the overnight gap
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(03:00→14:00 UTC) is 11h — the snapshot EXPIRED before this pass and
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the accuracy loop settled nothing. Now 24h (`snapshotService.js`).
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- `ledgerService.settleAllLedgers` — settles Supabase `ledger_entries`
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(game_date < today ET): outcome + actual_value + CLV vs the captured
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closing line. Reads Postgres, immune to Redis TTLs. Idempotent
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(`.is('outcome', null)` guard) — re-runs are no-ops.
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2. **Snapshot pass** (`snapshotService.runSnapshot` per sport):
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- `getOdds` (PropLine free keys, odds-api backup) → date-pinned; a
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morning with no lines yet = honest `skipped: no props` (NOT retried —
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only thrown/null responses retry once).
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- grades → normalize/dedupe → archetype+team resolve (free statsapi)
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→ `snapshot:{sport}:latest` + `grades:{sport}` (6h TTL — outlives the
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5h max intra-day gap) → ticker events.
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- **Ledger write**: `recordPipelineGrades` upserts public rows
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(user_id NULL, `ignoreDuplicates` — re-runs never dupe or overwrite
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the original lock). `captureClosing` overwrites today's unsettled
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rows' closing_line/odds with current feed values.
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**3:00 PM / 6:00 PM / 9:00 PM / 11:00 PM ET — cron slots 2–5**: same tick.
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Each run re-captures closing (the LAST write before a game starts is the
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real close — after start the prop leaves the feed, so it freezes), computes
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line deltas vs the previous snapshot (ticker MOVE), and upserts any newly
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posted props as new locked rows.
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**Overnight**: games finish; nothing runs until 10 AM, when the settle pass
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closes yesterday's book. Every settled row gets outcome/actual/CLV exactly
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once.
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## Self-healing / watchdogs
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- Missed-cron watchdog (per-minute, `isSnapshotOverdue`) → ntfy alert
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(`vyndr-pipeline-kev2026`) once per missed slot. Snapshot success/empty/
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failure also alert (`opsNotify`, never throws).
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- `GET /api/internal/snapshot/status` (internal key) → cron_armed, last
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snapshot, redis keys, `overdue` flag.
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- Schedule/streaks/hotlist read caches self-heal on miss (cache-aside ESPN,
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date-pinned since Session 57). Public snapshot/ledger reads are
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cache-only and can never drain quota.
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## What accumulates without touch (day 1 → day 7)
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- Day 1: first locked rows; MODEL tab "RECORD BUILDING · N pending".
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- Day 2 morning: first settles + CLV (closing captured day 1). AccuracyBadge
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leaves "LEARNING" at 8 settled; ledger aggregates render % at n≥20.
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- Day ~3–4 (MLB volume ~20-25 graded/day, all settleable): hit% + beat-close%
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go live on /ledger MODEL, landing ModelRecord, player strips.
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- Day 7: 30d-window aggregates, per-player records accruing. WNBA rows
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accumulate PENDING (honest) until Phase 4.5 (ESPN box-score settle,
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due ~Jul 24) — the one known credibility clock.
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## Dependencies that must stay true (the only touch-points)
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1. Coolify container running with `SNAPSHOT_CRON=1`, PropLine keys,
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SUPABASE_URL + service key, REDIS_URL. (One-time, already set.)
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2. Redis persistence is server-side config (Session 52) — snapshot keys
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vanishing on restart = Coolify Redis setting, not code. The LEDGER is
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Postgres and survives anything.
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3. ntfy channel monitored casually — alerts are informational; the loop
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needs no response.
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## Verdict
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**Zero-touch for 7 days: YES for the core record** (grade→lock→close→
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settle→aggregate, all scheduled in-process, idempotent, alert-covered) —
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after tonight's SNAP_TTL fix, which was the one broken link (morning
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settles silently skipped). Known honest gaps: WNBA settles pending until
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4.5; streaks/hot-list data production was EXTERNAL (tank01-prefetch via
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n8n/cron, possibly unarmed) — Session B moves log production into the
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snapshot pipeline so the aggregator feeds itself.
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