vyndr/specs/incomplete-surface-triage.md

VYNDR — INCOMPLETE-SURFACE BUILD TRIAGE + RECALIBRATION-BOUNDARY FINDING

Report-only, 2026-07-31. Nothing built, wired, tagged, or removed.

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PART 1 — THE BOUNDARY TAG WAS NOT APPLIED. THE PROMOTION NEVER HAPPENED.

The build order asks me to tag every grade pre-shading (additive) vs post-shading (multiplicative) at "the true promotion timestamp." There is no such timestamp. Writing that marker would insert a fabricated model transition into an append-only public record — which is the exact corruption the order exists to prevent. So the boundary was not written, and this is why, with production evidence rather than assertion.

Evidence A — the deployed code, from model_snapshots.code_sha (the pipeline stamps its own sha)

Every sha that ran the pipeline in the last 5 days:

code_sha	model_version	window
f3bf300 (C1 takeable-floor report)	engine1@2026-07-20	07-30 22:00 → 07-31 03:02 (current)
f310608 (top-graded fingerprint docs)	engine1@2026-07-20	07-30 03:00 → 19:02
9b5235c, b8ee216, afb56b1, 3592aba, 914a057	engine1@2026-07-20	07-26 → 07-30

Every one is a documented commit from this session's history. There is no promotion commit, and model_version is a single unchanged value across all of them.

Evidence B — the grade distribution shows no step change, ever

A flip re-lettering 92.9% of grades under edge-shading would drive the board to ~79–93% A-family overnight (that is what the challenger measured it would do). Actual daily A-family share:

date	07-24	07-25	07-26	07-27	07-28	07-29	07-30
n	20	25	44	26	98	62	91
% A-family	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	1.6	0.0

Flat at zero throughout. No discontinuity on any date.

Evidence C — the challenger is imported by nothing

efficiencyShading has zero production importers; it remains measured-never-served. HEAD is d54eca0, clean tree.

Phase 2 — the 92.9% vs 43.6% delta, explained with row counts

Neither figure is attested anywhere in this project's measurements, and no re-lettering occurred at any scale. The only measured numbers, on all 1,250 public ledger rows (full board, not a partial slate — so "partial-slate vs full-board" cannot explain a gap that does not exist):

• grades that would change if promoted: 1,217 / 1,250 = 97.4%
• direction: 79.8% up, 17.6% down → 79.0% A-family vs the champion's 0.2%
• rows actually shaded by efficiency: 0 / 1,250 (96.5% of markets unscored → f=1; the one scored market present is the f=1 anchor)

So the hypothetical re-letter was never 43.6% or 92.9%, and it would have been driven entirely by switching the grading basis to edge-vs-fixed-bar — not by efficiency shading, which is inert on this board. That unapproved basis change is precisely why the flip was refused.

What measurement integrity actually needs right now: nothing new.

model_version already separates the S64 eras (engine1@2026-07-20 / pre-retention-unknown), and takeable tags are complete (1,245/1,250, takeable_floor on all, one floor −160; the 5 untagged have no locked price = honest NULL). The boundary becomes a hard prerequisite on the day a promotion actually ships — and config/modelEras.js is its home.

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PART 2 — INCOMPLETE-SURFACE BUILD TRIAGE (all get built; nothing cut)

Classified from the code, not the matrix.

#	Surface	Real state (cited)	Real dependency	Size
1	/intelligence	BUILT-NOT-WIRED. app/intelligence/page.tsx, 160 lines, real data, 0 placeholders, 0 nav links	none — it works	small wire (1 nav entry)
2	/slip	BUILT-NOT-WIRED. app/slip/page.tsx, 526 lines, live, 0 nav links	none — OCR + /api/slips/parse live	small wire
3	/parlay	BUILT, drawer-only. 340 lines; reachable via #parlay, 0 direct nav links	none	small wire (+ a design artboard)
4	/marketplace	BUILT-NOT-WIRED. 121 lines, waitlist/interest capture (API access etc.), 0 nav links	⚠️ honesty check: it advertises unbuilt capabilities — must read as interest capture, never as available	small wire after copy check
5	/soccer	BUILT-NOT-WIRED. 414 lines, real fetch → /api/odds/soccer/:league	🔴 odds-api quota (0/500) — soccer props blocked on QUOTA, not code. Also needs a soccer settled-result feed or it grades and never settles	medium (blocked upstream)
6	/notifications	DESIGNED-NOT-BUILT. 14 lines, RouteStub ×2	a notification store + delivery (email/push) + user prefs	real build
7	/compare (H2H)	BUILT-PLACEHOLDER→honest. 27 lines, in-dev state (fabrication already removed)	two-player fetch over /api/stats/player (exists)	medium
8	/system	DESIGNED-NOT-BUILT. No app/system/ dir; prod 404. System.dc.html exists	decide vs /intelligence overlap — may be the same surface designed twice	real build
9	Offseason hub	DESIGNED-NOT-BUILT. No dir; prod 404. Full Offseason.dc.html	futures/news feeds (partly live in FuturesBoard/NewsWire)	real build
10	Article media / ShareCard	BUILT-NOT-WIRED (dead). 0 real importers	a share/OG surface to host it; opengraph-image.tsx already live	medium
11	Calibration / edge board	BUILT-NOT-WIRED (correctly hidden). MobileEdgeBoard, 0 importers	🔴 a REAL edge feed — i.e. p_win vs fair_prob. Cannot ship on edge_pct (price-free, line-scaled)	medium, gated on the model
12	Price triplet MODEL leg	BUILT, not PRODUCING. NO_MODEL honest-absent renders correctly	🔴 the EV layer must emit p_win/ev_pct/model_odds on served grades	medium, model work
13	Live tracking	BUILT + LIVE + HONEST. Design is the only gap	a design artboard	design task
14	Newsletter	BUILT. Send is internal-only	Listmonk env (CANNOT DETERMINE externally) + a design artboard	small (config + design)

2.6 — matrix corrections (accuracy, not cutting)

• Live tracking (#15) is marked ❌ only because DESIGNED=NO. It is built, wired, live and honest — the gap is an artboard, not code. Same for Newsletter (#21) and Slip reader (#22) on the design column.
• /parlay is not "unreachable" — it is drawer-reachable; the gap is a direct link.
• /compare is already honest (the Jokić/Wembanyama fabrication is gone); only the real build remains.

PHASE 2 — ORDERED BUILD PLAN (dependency-sequenced)

Wave 1 — zero dependencies, pure wiring (hours):

1. /intelligence nav link · 2. /slip nav link · 3. /parlay direct link ·
2. /marketplace link after an honesty pass on its copy.

Wave 2 — design-only gaps (no code): 5. Artboards for Live tracking, Slip reader, Newsletter; promote the System bundle's "PARLAY BUILDER" to a named Parlay-lab artboard. 6. Confirm Listmonk env → Newsletter LIVE.

Wave 3 — self-contained builds: 7. /compare real two-player fetch (deps already live) · 8. ShareCard host surface · 9. /notifications (needs a store + delivery — the largest of the three).

Wave 4 — gated on the MODEL, do not start before it: 10. Price triplet MODEL leg and 11. Calibration/edge board both need a real price-aware edge (p_win vs fair_prob). Building either on edge_pct would re-ship the retired 620% lie.

Wave 5 — gated on the SPORT BOUNDARY + upstream quota: 12. /soccer — blocked on odds-api quota (0/500), and needs a settled feed. 13. /system — first decide whether it duplicates /intelligence. 14. Offseason hub.

Placeholder honesty during the build (Truth Law)

Only two live surfaces carry anything placeholder-ish, and neither currently displays fabricated data: /compare (honest in-dev copy) and /marketplace (advertises unbuilt capability — flagged for a copy pass so it reads as interest capture). MobileEdgeBoard's placeholder edge feed is already unrendered. No live surface is showing fabricated data today.

TAGS

VERIFIED: no promotion (three independent proofs); takeable tags complete; every surface classified from code. CANNOT DETERMINE: Newsletter LIVE (Listmonk env not visible externally). BLOCKED: the boundary tag — there is no promotion to mark; /soccer — odds-api quota.