vyndr/tests/unit/artifactGovernance.test.js

'use strict';

/**
 * A VALIDATOR IS NOT A REPAIR. `servable:false` must mean something mechanically.
 *
 * The previous release detected the violation correctly and then served the
 * certified state anyway. These tests exist so that cannot recur.
 */
const pc = require('../../src/services/model/probabilityContract');
const svc = require('../../src/services/model/probabilityContractService');
const registry = require('../../src/services/model/artifactRegistry');
const fp = require('../../src/services/model/fitPolicy');

const ERA = 'engine1@2026-08-07-fullwindow';
const good = registry.load('mlb', 'hits');
const read = (p) => ({ sport: 'mlb', stat: 'hits', model_version: ERA, p_win: p });
const est = () => 0.6;

describe('an unservable artifact can never emit a certified state', () => {
  // Era and estimator mismatch resolve to VERSION_MISMATCH rather than the new
  // state — that is DELIBERATE. "This artifact belongs to a different
  // forecaster" is a more precise thing to say than "policy blocked", and the
  // existing state already says it exactly. The invariant asserted for all six
  // is the one that matters: never certified, never a number.
  const violations = {
    ERA_NOT_RESTRICTED: [{ era_audit: { era_counts: { [ERA]: 10, 'engine1@2026-07-20': 5 }, wrong_era_rows: 5 } }, 'ARTIFACT_POLICY_BLOCKED'],
    MODEL_VERSION_MISMATCH: [{ model_version: 'engine1@2026-07-20' }, 'VERSION_MISMATCH'],
    ESTIMATOR_MISMATCH: [{ estimator_type: 'low_param' }, 'VERSION_MISMATCH'],
    MISSING_IDENTITY: [{ knot_digest: null }, 'ARTIFACT_POLICY_BLOCKED'],
    THIN_FIT: [{ fit_n: 3 }, 'ARTIFACT_POLICY_BLOCKED'],
    SUPPORT_WIDENING: [{ certified_bands: [[0.50, 0.99]] }, 'ARTIFACT_POLICY_BLOCKED'],
  };

  for (const [name, [over, expected]] of Object.entries(violations)) {
    it(`${name} -> ${expected}, never CERTIFIED_CALIBRATED`, () => {
      const base = { ...good, ...over };
      const check = fp.validate(base, { era_counts: base.era_audit ? base.era_audit.era_counts : null });
      expect(check.servable).toBe(false);
      const artifact = { ...base, servable: check.servable, fit_policy_violations: check.violations };
      const r = pc.resolve(read(0.65), { estimate: est, artifact });
      expect(r.probability_state).toBe(pc.STATE[expected]);
      expect(r.probability_state).not.toBe(pc.STATE.CERTIFIED_CALIBRATED);
      expect(r.served_probability).toBeNull();
      expect(r.raw_model_probability).toBe(0.65);      // raw is still evidence
      expect(pc.derivedClaims(r, -115).available).toBe(false);
    });
  }

  it('and every probability-derived claim is withheld with it', () => {
    const artifact = { ...good, servable: false, fit_policy_violations: ['ERA_NOT_RESTRICTED'] };
    const d = pc.derivedClaims(pc.resolve(read(0.65), { estimate: est, artifact }), -115);
    expect(d.available).toBe(false);
    expect(d.ev_pct).toBeNull();
    expect(d.kelly).toBeNull();
    expect(d.value).toBeNull();
  });

  it('the blocked state names the violation rather than shrugging', () => {
    const artifact = { ...good, servable: false, fit_policy_violations: ['ERA_NOT_RESTRICTED'] };
    expect(pc.resolve(read(0.65), { estimate: est, artifact }).reason).toContain('ERA_NOT_RESTRICTED');
  });
});

describe('no environment variable can override the gate', () => {
  const artifact = { ...good, servable: false, fit_policy_violations: ['ERA_NOT_RESTRICTED'] };

  it('shadow ON does not make an unservable artifact certify', () => {
    expect(pc.shadowState({ PROBABILITY_CONTRACT_SHADOW: '1' }).shadow).toBe('ON');
    // the gate lives in the resolution, not beside the flag
    const r = pc.resolve(read(0.65), { estimate: est, artifact });
    expect(r.probability_state).toBe(pc.STATE.ARTIFACT_POLICY_BLOCKED);
  });

  it('resolve takes no flag, so there is nothing for a flag to reach', () => {
    const src = require('fs').readFileSync(
      require('path').join(__dirname, '../../src/services/model/probabilityContract.js'), 'utf8');
    const body = src.slice(src.indexOf('function resolve'), src.indexOf('const isCertified'));
    expect(body).not.toContain('process.env');
    expect(body).not.toContain('PROBABILITY_CONTRACT_SHADOW');
  });
});

describe('one validity decision for shadow AND live', () => {
  it('an artifact promoted only for shadow is refused for live use', () => {
    // the SHIPPED artifact is now APPROVED_FOR_LIVE (promoted 2026-09-04), so
    // the stage gate is exercised against a shadow-only artifact explicitly.
    const shadowOnly = { ...good, approved_for_live: false, approved_for_shadow: true };
    const live = pc.resolve(read(0.65), { estimate: est, artifact: shadowOnly, usage: 'live' });
    expect(live.probability_state).toBe(pc.STATE.ARTIFACT_POLICY_BLOCKED);
    expect(live.reason).toContain('not promoted for live');
    const shadow = pc.resolve(read(0.65), { estimate: est, artifact: shadowOnly, usage: 'shadow' });
    expect(shadow.probability_state).toBe(pc.STATE.CERTIFIED_CALIBRATED);
  });

  it('the shipped artifact IS promoted for live — and that alone changes nothing', () => {
    expect(good.approved_for_shadow).toBe(true);
    expect(good.approved_for_live).toBe(true);
    // approval is one gate; the runtime flag is the other, and it is unset
    expect(pc.liveState({}).live).toBe('OFF');
  });

  it('live consumes the SAME servable decision, not a parallel one', () => {
    const bad = { ...good, servable: false, approved_for_live: true, fit_policy_violations: ['X'] };
    expect(pc.resolve(read(0.65), { estimate: est, artifact: bad, usage: 'live' }).probability_state)
      .toBe(pc.STATE.ARTIFACT_POLICY_BLOCKED);
  });
});

describe('the active curve does not move', () => {
  it('the runtime holds no fitter — nothing to refit on a snapshot', () => {
    const src = require('fs').readFileSync(
      require('path').join(__dirname, '../../src/services/model/probabilityContractService.js'), 'utf8');
    const code = src.replace(/\/\*[\s\S]*?\*\//g, '').replace(/^\s*\/\/.*$/gm, '');
    expect(code).not.toContain('fitIsotonic');
    expect(code).not.toContain('fromLedger');
    expect(code).not.toContain('loadRows');
  });

  it('repeated builds return the same artifact object and the same numbers', async () => {
    const a = await svc.build(null, { sport: 'mlb', stat: 'hits' });
    const b = await svc.build(null, { sport: 'mlb', stat: 'hits' });
    expect(a.artifact).toBe(b.artifact);                 // cached, identical identity
    expect(a.artifact.source_digest).toBe(b.artifact.source_digest);
    expect(a.resolve(read(0.72)).served_probability).toBe(b.resolve(read(0.72)).served_probability);
  });

  it('a new settled outcome cannot alter the curve — it is a committed file', () => {
    const before = registry.applyCurve(good, 0.65);
    registry.__resetCache();
    const after = registry.applyCurve(registry.load('mlb', 'hits'), 0.65);
    expect(after).toBe(before);
  });
});

describe('promotion is a deliberate act', () => {
  it('the promotion table is a frozen source constant, not runtime state', () => {
    expect(Object.isFrozen(registry.PROMOTED)).toBe(true);
    expect(Object.isFrozen(registry.PROMOTED['mlb:hits'])).toBe(true);
    expect(registry.PROMOTED['mlb:hits'].stage).toBe(registry.STAGE.APPROVED_FOR_LIVE);
    // strict mode makes the write throw rather than fail silently — either way
    // the table is unchanged, which is the property under test
    expect(() => { registry.PROMOTED['mlb:rbi'] = { artifact_id: 'x', stage: 'APPROVED_FOR_LIVE' }; }).toThrow();
    expect(registry.PROMOTED['mlb:rbi']).toBeUndefined();
  });

  it('an artifact file that exists but is not named is NOT loaded', () => {
    // load() resolves the file FROM the promotion table, so an unnamed artifact
    // sitting in the directory is inert.
    expect(registry.load('mlb', 'rbi')).toBeNull();
  });

  it('the loaded artifact id must equal the promoted id', () => {
    expect(registry.load('mlb', 'hits').artifact_id).toBe(registry.PROMOTED['mlb:hits'].artifact_id);
  });

  it('a file declaring a DIFFERENT id is refused — dropping one in promotes nothing', () => {
    const promoted = registry.PROMOTED['mlb:hits'];
    expect(registry.acceptFile({ artifact_id: promoted.artifact_id }, promoted)).toBe(true);
    // the case load() can never reach on the happy path, and the reason the
    // guard existed unprotected until a teeth injection came back green
    expect(registry.acceptFile({ artifact_id: 'mlb-hits-isotonic@2099-01-01' }, promoted)).toBe(false);
    expect(registry.acceptFile({ artifact_id: null }, promoted)).toBe(false);
    expect(registry.acceptFile({}, promoted)).toBe(false);
    expect(registry.acceptFile(null, promoted)).toBe(false);
    expect(registry.acceptFile({ artifact_id: 'x' }, null)).toBe(false);
  });
});

describe('model-era transition law', () => {
  it('a NEW model era does not inherit this artifact', () => {
    const r = pc.resolve({ sport: 'mlb', stat: 'hits', model_version: 'engine1@2027-01-01', p_win: 0.65 },
      { estimate: est, artifact: good });
    expect(r.probability_state).toBe(pc.STATE.VERSION_MISMATCH);
    expect(r.served_probability).toBeNull();
  });

  it('and an artifact relabelled to a new era fails its own policy', () => {
    const relabelled = { ...good, model_version: 'engine1@2027-01-01' };
    const check = fp.validate(relabelled, { era_counts: good.era_audit.era_counts });
    expect(check.valid).toBe(false);
    expect(check.servable).toBe(false);
  });
});

describe('the runtime can name its artifact with the shadow OFF', () => {
  it('reports the full identity without enabling anything', () => {
    const st = pc.shadowState({});
    expect(st.shadow).toBe('OFF');
    expect(st.live_serving).toBe('OFF');
    const a = st.artifact;
    for (const k of ['artifact_id', 'procedure_version', 'model_version', 'fit_as_of',
      'training_cutoff', 'fit_n', 'source_digest', 'knot_digest', 'served_curve_digest',
      'certified_bands', 'stage']) expect(a[k]).toBeTruthy();
    expect(a.servable).toBe(true);
    expect(a.approved_for_shadow).toBe(true);
    // promoted 2026-09-04; the runtime flag remains the second, unset gate
    expect(a.approved_for_live).toBe(true);
    expect(a.wrong_era_rows).toBe(0);
    expect(a.withheld_from_fit).toBe(0);
  });

  it('does not put a second copy of the curve on a status surface', () => {
    expect(pc.shadowState({}).artifact.served_curve).toBeUndefined();
  });

  it('two resolutions return the same artifact — no refit between calls', () => {
    expect(JSON.stringify(pc.shadowState({}).artifact))
      .toBe(JSON.stringify(pc.shadowState({}).artifact));
  });
});

describe('ONE ARTIFACT, ONE STAT — the cross-stat leak found by cohort 0353c551', () => {
  const retention = require('../../src/services/retentionService');

  /** The real collector, with a MIXED-STAT batch — the shape production sends. */
  function mixedBatch() {
    const c = retention.createCollector({
      snapshotId: 's1', sport: 'mlb', modelVersion: ERA, codeSha: 't',
      gameDate: '2026-09-03', gameIdFor: () => 'mlb:2026-09-03:AAA@BBB',
    });
    for (const stat of ['hits', 'total_bases', 'rbi', 'runs', 'walks', 'strikeouts', 'home_runs']) {
      c.onGraded(
        { player: `P ${stat}`, stat_type: stat, line: 0.5, sport: 'mlb', over_odds: -110, under_odds: -110 },
        [{ direction: 'over', grade: 'C+', p_win: 0.65, confidence: 65 }],
      );
    }
    return c.rows;
  }

  it('calibrates hits and NOTHING else, even in one mixed batch', async () => {
    const contract = await svc.build(null, { sport: 'mlb', stat: 'hits' });
    const merged = retention.mergeProbabilityContract(mixedBatch(), contract);

    const byStat = {};
    for (const r of merged) {
      byStat[r.stat] = byStat[r.stat] || { certified: 0, served: 0, other: 0 };
      const st = r.probability_contract.probability_state;
      if (st === pc.STATE.CERTIFIED_CALIBRATED) byStat[r.stat].certified++;
      else byStat[r.stat].other++;
      if (r.probability_contract.served_probability != null) byStat[r.stat].served++;
    }

    // hits: calibrated. p_win 0.65 sits inside certified support.
    expect(byStat.hits.certified).toBeGreaterThan(0);
    expect(byStat.hits.served).toBeGreaterThan(0);

    // EVERY other stat: no certified state and no number, at the SAME p_win.
    for (const stat of ['total_bases', 'rbi', 'runs', 'walks', 'strikeouts', 'home_runs']) {
      expect(byStat[stat].certified).toBe(0);
      expect(byStat[stat].served).toBe(0);
    }
  });

  it('a non-hits row resolves UNSUPPORTED — the contract does not exist for it', async () => {
    const contract = await svc.build(null, { sport: 'mlb', stat: 'hits' });
    const [tb] = retention.mergeProbabilityContract(
      mixedBatch().filter((r) => r.stat === 'total_bases'), contract);
    expect(tb.probability_contract.probability_state).toBe(pc.STATE.UNSUPPORTED);
    expect(tb.probability_contract.served_probability).toBeNull();
    expect(tb.probability_contract.derived.available).toBe(false);
  });

  it('the resolver does not substitute its own identity for the row\'s', async () => {
    const contract = await svc.build(null, { sport: 'mlb', stat: 'hits' });
    // a read naming another stat must NOT be resolved as hits
    expect(contract.resolve({ sport: 'mlb', stat: 'rbi', model_version: ERA, p_win: 0.65 })
      .probability_state).toBe(pc.STATE.UNSUPPORTED);
    // and a read naming NO stat resolves to no contract, never a fallback
    expect(contract.resolve({ model_version: ERA, p_win: 0.65 })
      .probability_state).toBe(pc.STATE.UNSUPPORTED);
  });

  it('an artifact for another stat is refused even with correct plumbing', () => {
    const wrong = { ...good, stat: 'total_bases' };
    const r = pc.resolve(read(0.65), { estimate: est, artifact: wrong });
    expect(r.probability_state).toBe(pc.STATE.VERSION_MISMATCH);
    expect(r.served_probability).toBeNull();
    expect(r.reason).toContain('total_bases');
  });

  it('and an artifact for another sport is refused', () => {
    const r = pc.resolve(read(0.65), { estimate: est, artifact: { ...good, sport: 'wnba' } });
    expect(r.probability_state).toBe(pc.STATE.VERSION_MISMATCH);
    expect(r.served_probability).toBeNull();
  });
});

describe('an UNSUPPORTED row attributes no artifact', () => {
  const retention = require('../../src/services/retentionService');

  it('names no artifact for a stat that has no contract', () => {
    const r = pc.resolve({ sport: 'mlb', stat: 'doubles', model_version: ERA, p_win: 0.65 },
      { estimate: est, artifact: good });
    expect(r.probability_state).toBe(pc.STATE.UNSUPPORTED);
    expect(r.served_probability).toBeNull();
    // the attribution, not just the number
    expect(r.artifact).toBeNull();
    expect(r.artifact_id).toBeNull();
    expect(r.estimator_type).toBeNull();
    expect(r.procedure_version).toBeNull();
    expect(JSON.stringify(r)).not.toContain(good.artifact_id);
  });

  it('but a hits row in the same batch still carries the full identity', async () => {
    const contract = await svc.build(null, { sport: 'mlb', stat: 'hits' });
    const c = retention.createCollector({
      snapshotId: 's2', sport: 'mlb', modelVersion: ERA, codeSha: 't',
      gameDate: '2026-09-03', gameIdFor: () => 'g',
    });
    for (const stat of ['hits', 'doubles']) {
      c.onGraded({ player: `P ${stat}`, stat_type: stat, line: 0.5, sport: 'mlb', over_odds: -110, under_odds: -110 },
        [{ direction: 'over', grade: 'C+', p_win: 0.65, confidence: 65 }]);
    }
    const merged = retention.mergeProbabilityContract(c.rows, contract);
    const hits = merged.find((r) => r.stat === 'hits').probability_contract;
    const doubles = merged.find((r) => r.stat === 'doubles').probability_contract;
    expect(hits.artifact.artifact_id).toBe(good.artifact_id);
    expect(hits.served_probability).not.toBeNull();
    expect(doubles.artifact).toBeNull();
    expect(doubles.served_probability).toBeNull();
    expect(doubles.probability_state).toBe(pc.STATE.UNSUPPORTED);
  });

  it('an artifact IS still named where it is the relevant one', () => {
    // uncertified (out of support) and version-mismatch rows keep attribution:
    // there the artifact was consulted and is the thing that declined.
    expect(pc.resolve(read(0.91), { estimate: est, artifact: good }).artifact).not.toBeNull();
    expect(pc.resolve(read(0.65, { model_version: 'other' }), { estimate: est, artifact: good }).artifact)
      .not.toBeNull();
  });
});