builtbykev
0d43fb7db8
Report for the audit + fix already committed. Records the two things worth carrying forward: 1. The environment axis has NOT yet been observed writing to the ledger, and I am not claiming it has. recordPipelineGrades upserts with ignoreDuplicates and dedupes on (user_id, player_key, stat, line, side, game_id) -- correctly, so a re-run never overwrites the original lock. Today's 429 rows predate the fix, so the axis cannot backfill onto them; first ledger observation is tomorrow's slate. What IS directly verified is the resolver (105/120) and the join key (416/416) -- the two things that were actually broken. 2. Matchup is not fixed and is not claimed as fixed. It needs the opposing starter and BOTH hands, and the audit shows three separate absences: oppPitcherByTeam 0, handById 0, bats 0/120. Fixing the pitcher feed without the hands, or the hands without the feed, still produces an axis that fires on zero rows. Also noted: the S59 slate JOIN INVARIANT keys off the same null `team` field, so it is currently inert too. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01QJs13VsyiSKYQP6rj3NNmc
151 lines
5.5 KiB
Markdown
151 lines
5.5 KiB
Markdown
# arch-v1 AXIS AUDIT — env/matchup WERE DEAD; ENVIRONMENT FIXED
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**Date:** 2026-08-01 · champion `p_win`, ranking, calibration and
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`opportunity_drift`'s accruing verdict all **untouched**.
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**Gates:** 4,077 tests / 326 suites green · `next build` exit 0 · audit run on
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prod · resolver verified live.
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---
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## STEP 0 — THE AUDIT: "already partly live" was half true
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**The code is wired. The axes were not firing.**
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Across **634 graded prod rows**, `challenger_adjustments` axis distribution:
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| axis | rows | % of slate |
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|---|---:|---:|
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| *(no axis fired)* | 296 | 46.7% |
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| **opportunity** *(new, ours)* | 142 | 22.4% |
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| power | 80 | 12.6% |
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| swing_miss | 69 | 10.9% |
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| contact | 56 | 8.8% |
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| launch · line_drive · patience · strikeout · contact_allowed · aggression · chase · velocity · ground_ball · wild | 51→1 | — |
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| **environment (park/weather)** | **0** | **0%** |
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| **matchup (platoon)** | **0** | **0%** |
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Every axis that fired is an **archetype trait**. The two condition axes this
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order is about fired on **nothing**.
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The ledger confirms it from the other side: `env_multiplier`, `env_park_base`,
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`env_weather_mod`, `wx_forecast`, `env_weather_state` — **all null on 634/634**.
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### Root cause, located rather than inferred
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`buildContext` works fine — **15 games, 14 with weather, Coors Field composing to
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1.241**. The failure is downstream. A drop-off audit against the live snapshot:
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| hop | count |
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|---|---:|
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| grades examined | 120 |
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| **with a `team` field** | **0** |
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| team resolves to an abbr | 0 |
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| abbr matches a game | 0 |
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| **environment produced** | **0** |
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| with `playerId` | 120 |
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| with `bats` | **0** |
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| opposing pitcher known | **0** |
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**`team` is a key on every stored grade and NULL on 416/416.** The resolver keyed
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off the player's roster team, so it could never find a venue — while
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`buildContext` sat there with all 30 teams mapped and 14 weather forecasts
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resolved and unused. **Nothing was broken in the park or weather code. The join
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key was absent.**
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*(Side consequence worth noting: the S59 slate JOIN INVARIANT also keys off this
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same `team` field, so it is currently inert too.)*
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---
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## STEP 1 — THE ENVIRONMENT FIX (and it is the more correct join)
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**The park and the weather belong to the GAME, not to the player's roster team** —
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and the game rides on the prop from the odds feed, where a stats-resolve can
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legitimately fail.
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1. **`gradeSlateService.gradeBestSide`** now carries `home_team`/`away_team` onto
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the graded row. The legacy grade shape dropped them.
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2. **`environmentContext.contextFor`** joins on the game first
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(`team → home_team → away_team`), keeping the roster team as a fallback.
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### Verified live
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| | before | after |
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|---|---:|---:|
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| grades carrying `home_team` | 0 / 416 | **416 / 416** |
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| **environment resolves** | **0 / 120** | **105 / 120 (87.5%)** |
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Coors Field composes to **1.241** (park 1.20 × weather 1.034) the moment it gets
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a key.
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### One honest limit on what is confirmed
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**The axis has not yet been observed writing to the ledger, and I am not claiming
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it has.** `recordPipelineGrades` upserts with `ignoreDuplicates: true` and dedupes
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on `(user_id, player_key, stat, line, side, game_id)` — correctly, so a re-run
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never overwrites the original lock. Today's 429 rows were written **before** the
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fix, so the environment axis **cannot** backfill onto them.
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```
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game_date 2026-08-01 — 429 rows: opportunity axis 142, environment axis 0
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```
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**First ledger observation: tomorrow's slate.** What *is* directly verified is the
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resolver (105/120) and the join key (416/416), which are the two things that were
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broken.
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---
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## MATCHUP / PLATOON — NOT FIXED, AND NOT CLAIMED AS FIXED
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It needs the opposing starter and **both** hands. The audit shows **three separate
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absences**:
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```
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oppPitcherByTeam 0 (the probable-pitcher fetch returns nothing)
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handById 0 (so no pitcher handedness)
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with_bats 0/120 (no hitter handedness on the slate)
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```
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Per the order's own guard — *one axis at a time* — that is its **own order with
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its own diagnosis**, not a second fix smuggled into this one. Fixing the pitcher
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feed without the hands, or the hands without the feed, would still produce an
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axis that fires on zero rows.
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---
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## STEP 2 — HOLDOUTS: BOTH AXES ARE n-BLOCKED
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| axis | settled rows carrying it | earliest proof |
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|---|---:|---|
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| `opportunity` | **0** | first settle pass on 2026-08-01 games |
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| `environment` | **0** | first ledger write on tomorrow's slate |
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Neither can be proven today, and **a holdout filtered to axis-carrying rows cannot
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be run when that set is empty**. The committed query
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(`scripts/opportunity-axis-holdout.sql`) already filters that way, for the reason
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drift established: including untouched rows dilutes the comparison with rows where
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challenger ≡ champion **by construction, biasing toward a false positive.**
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**Both accrue in parallel on the same harness. Neither promotes until its own
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holdout says so.**
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---
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## WHAT IS UNTOUCHED
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Champion `p_win`, the live grade path, ranking, calibration, and
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`opportunity_drift`'s accruing verdict. The environment axis writes only to
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`p_win_challenger` / `challenger_adjustments`.
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## TAGS
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**VERIFIED:** env + matchup axes fired on 0/634 prod rows · 13 archetype axes fire
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normally · `team` null on 416/416 · `buildContext` healthy (15 games, 14 weather) ·
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post-fix environment resolves 105/120 and `home_team` present 416/416 · matchup
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blocked by three separate absences.
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**NOT YET OBSERVED:** the environment axis writing to the ledger — blocked by
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same-day dedupe, first visible on tomorrow's slate.
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