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builtbykev b8ee216c62 docs: CLV instrument repair + the straight finding (unders lag the close) 
closing_prob 59 -> 406 (MLB 248, WNBA 158). Root cause was attachClosingProb's
truncated read + write-once market_unavailable, not capture or the join. CLV
measured: MLB unders lag the close (mean -9.1 prob-pts, 74% lose), MLB overs
+2.0, WNBA flat -> the +4.57% MLB-C and over/under asymmetry are substantially
stale-line artifacts. Unblocks the proj-v1.1 proof order.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01VsztNChZ7vEvSR61AuMhD1
2026-07-28 19:04:50 -04:00

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# VYNDR — PRODUCT COMPLETION MATRIX
Canonical board. Supersedes STATE.md's narrative. Re-derived from repo (`b0a51c8`),
prod (`api.vyndr.app` / `vyndr.app`, checked 2026-07-27), and the design bundle
(`specs/design-reference/*`). Every cell cites a file, a route, or a prod check.
**DONE = all five YES:** DESIGNED (spec exists) · BUILT (code exists) · WIRED (a user
can reach it) · LIVE (serving in prod now) · HONEST (real data, not fabricated/inflated/
placeholder). A built-but-unrouted component is **WIRED: NO** regardless of code quality.
> **HONESTY PASS applied 2026-07-27 (6bc18d8):** every KNOWN live fabrication removed/hidden
> — see the "HONESTY PASS" section at the end. HONEST cells for rows 19/20/24 updated (✓).
## SURFACE MATRIX — 15 of ~26 fully done
| # | Surface | DESIGNED | BUILT | WIRED | LIVE | HONEST | DONE | Evidence / what's missing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Landing / hero | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES | ✅ | `Landing.dc.html`; `app/page.tsx`; nav logo; prod `/`→200; Hero/TopSignals/ClaimMeter/ModelRecord all fetch real + self-hide |
| 2 | Dashboard / Slate | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES | ✅ | `Mobile.dc.html`; `Slate.tsx`+`vyndr/GameCard`; Nav "Slate"; prod `/dashboard`→200; snapshot grades real (wnba 25/mlb 5 today) |
| 3 | Scan flow (S6/S7) | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES | ✅ | `Scanner States.dc.html`; `scan/page.tsx`+`ProcessingGrade`; Nav "Read"; prod 200; real grade, honest `NoMarketState` |
| 4 | Grade result card | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES | ✅ | `System.dc.html` reveal; `GradeResultCard.tsx` (3 importers); `/scan`; real grade. Sub-sections (alt ladder, books) gated/absent — see #17/#18 |
| 5 | Grade display / badge | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES | ✅ | `HANDOFF.md:41`; `GradeBadge.tsx`; dashboard/scan/many; prod grades B/C real, no fake A |
| 6 | Ledger | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES | ✅ | `Intelligence.dc.html` S4; `ledger/page.tsx`+`ClvBadge`; Nav "Ledger"; prod 200; n≥20 gate honored |
| 7 | Tier-record | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES* | ✅ | `HANDOFF.md:33`; `TierRecord.tsx` (6 routes); n≥20 gate. *A-tier "edge glow" is ranking-as-credibility, not proven ROI (honest-but-thin) |
| 8 | Pricing | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES | ✅ | `Mobile.dc.html`; `Pricing.tsx`+`ClaimMeter`+`DeskShowcase`; Nav/Footer; prod 200; Stripe real, mocks removed |
| 9 | Public profile `/u` | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES | ✅ | `System.dc.html` /u; `PublicProfile.tsx`; OPEN_ROUTE share link; prod `/api/profiles/test`→404 (privacy honest) |
| 10 | Player profile | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES | ✅ | `Mobile.dc.html` PLAYER; `player/[name]`; reachable via `playerHref` links; prod `/api/stats/player`→found:true (archetype/propDNA/season) |
| 11 | Team hub | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES* | ✅ | `Mobile.dc.html` TEAM HUB; `TeamHub.tsx`; `TeamLink` on cards; prod `/api/team/NYY`→26 roster. *MLB real; NBA/WNBA partial roster |
| 12 | Explore | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES | ✅ | `Intelligence.dc.html`; `ExploreHub.tsx`+`FuturesBoard`/`NewsWire`; Nav; prod 200; real leaders/futures, "TRACKED·NOT GRADED" label |
| 13 | WIRE / ticker | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES | ✅ | `System.dc.html` WIRE; `vyndr/Ticker.tsx`; root layout; prod `/api/ticker`→30 real items |
| 14 | Streaks / hot list | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES | ✅ | `System.dc.html`; landing panels + Explore; prod `/api/streaks/mlb`→240 (computed), self-hide honest |
| 15 | Live tracking | PARTIAL | YES | YES | YES | YES | ⚠️ | `liveTrackingService`+`StatStrip.LiveTracker`; Slate polls `/api/live`; prod hasLive:false now (valid empty). DESIGNED: no dedicated bundle artboard |
| 16 | Parlay lab | PARTIAL | YES | YES | YES | YES | ⚠️ | `System.dc.html` PARLAY BUILDER (not named "Lab"); `parlay/page.tsx`+`ParlayPanel`; `#parlay` drawer; prod `/api/parlay/grade`→real A- |
| 17 | Alt-line ladder | PARTIAL | YES | PARTIAL | YES | YES | ❌ | Champion `alt_lines` real (prod: 5 rungs w/ edge_pct) but **Desk-tier only** (`tierGating.js:55`); proj-v1 `proj_ladder` ledger-only. DESIGNED: only Offseason grouping, no prop alt-stack |
| 18 | **Book comparison (S2)** | YES | YES | **NO** | PARTIAL | YES | ❌ | `Intelligence.dc.html` line-shopping; `BookComparison.tsx` **0 importers = DEAD**; `/api/books` LIVE+honest (crown gated off) but **no UI renders it** |
| 19 | Price triplet | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES✓ | ❌ | ✓HONESTY PASS: null model/EV now NO_MODEL (honest-absent), no false "poisoned" copy. Still ❌: EV layer doesn't *produce* model_odds/ev (separate build) |
| 20 | **Compare (H2H)** | PARTIAL | in-dev | NO | YES | YES✓ | ❌ | ✓HONESTY PASS: fabrication removed → honest in-development state, pulled from Nav+BottomTabBar. Real two-player build pending (awaiting real build) |
| 21 | Newsletter | YES | YES | YES | PARTIAL | YES | ❌ | `NewsletterCapture.tsx` on `/`,`/welcome`; subscribe validates live; send internal-only. LIVE: Listmonk env config `CANNOT DETERMINE` from prod |
| 22 | Slip reader | PARTIAL | YES | PARTIAL | YES | YES | ❌ | `slip/page.tsx`; prod 200; **0 nav links → orphan** (deep-link only). DESIGNED: `a1-s9` spec, not the design bundle |
| 23 | Article media / share (S3) | YES | PARTIAL | NO | PARTIAL | YES | ❌ | `Intelligence.dc.html` ARTICLE MEDIA; `ShareCard.tsx` **0 real importers = DEAD**; OG `opengraph-image.tsx` IS live. In-article archetype figures not built |
| 24 | Calibration / edge board | YES | YES | NO | NO | YES✓ | ❌ | ✓HONESTY PASS: placeholder-edge% `MobileEdgeBoard` REMOVED from the Slate (phones show real cards). Component kept as dead code until a real edge feed exists |
| 25 | System / Intelligence terminal | YES | YES | **NO** | PARTIAL | YES | ❌ | `System.dc.html`/`Intelligence.dc.html`; `/terminal`→redirect to `/dashboard`; `/intelligence` REAL but **orphan (0 nav links)**; `/system` no page (prod 404) |
| 26 | Offseason hub (S-2) | YES | PARTIAL | NO | NO | — | ❌ | `Offseason.dc.html` full spec; **no `/offseason` page** (prod 404); logic only inline in `FuturesBoard`/`NewsWire` on Explore |
Prod endpoints confirmed LIVE + real: `/api/snapshot/{mlb,wnba}`, `/api/accuracy` (n=763),
`/api/ledger/accuracy`, `/api/ticker`, `/api/books/mlb`, `/api/streaks`, `/api/hotlist`,
`/api/live`, `/api/schedule`, `/api/stats/{player,leaders}`, `/api/team`, `/api/parlay/grade`.
## MODEL MATRIX — champion serves; every challenger is ledger-only
| Component | EXISTS | PROVEN | PROMOTED (serving) | USED (a surface reads it) | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Champion (engine1) | YES | PARTIAL | YES | YES | `analyzeViaEngine1.js`; `enriched`→`snapshot`/`grades` (`snapshotService.js:674,680`). Measured tiny-n only (~18 MLB/~5 WNBA, "within noise"; WNBA loses) |
| arch-v1 | YES | NO | NO | NO | `challengerProjection.js`; rides `withChallenger`→**ledger only** (`:693`). "measured, never served" (`ledgerService.js:251`) |
| contact-v1 | YES | NO | NO | NO | `contactChallenger.js`; ledger col `p_win_contact` only |
| proj-v1 / v1.1 | YES | NO | NO | NO | `projectionChallenger.js`+`projection/distribution.js`; ledger cols `proj_*` only; nothing outside ledger reads them |
| Champion alt-ladder | YES | NO | YES | Desk-only | `analyzeViaEngine1.js:486`; real re-grades ±1 line; `gradeAdapter.js:100` maps to card **Desk-gated** |
| proj-v1 `proj_ladder` | YES | NO | NO | NO | `distribution.js:100`; ledger-only, reaches no card |
| Price gate / EV | YES | PARTIAL | PARTIAL | PARTIAL | fields on `enriched`; hero gates on `isTakeable`+`ev_pct` (`heroPropService.js:78`). **But prod grades show ev_pct/p_win/model_odds/value/takeable = NULL** — built, served-schema, not producing |
### Ladder question (Phase 2.6) — VERIFIED: proj-v1.1 DOES compute rungs above the line
`projection/distribution.js:100` `ladder()` computes `P(stat ≥ k)` for a fixed rung set
`k = 1..LADDER_MAX` (default 4), **independent of the listed line** — so for a line of 1.5
(tradedRung=2) it emits rungs 1 (below), 2 (at), **3 and 4 (ABOVE)**, each a real
negative-binomial survival prob (`projectionChallenger.js:183,200`). "Ladder-up **works**"
— sole cap is `LADDER_MAX=4`. **BUT `proj_ladder` is ledger-only and reaches no user
surface.** So "ladder up from the listed line to find value" is *computed and never wired*.
## HONEST-STATE SUMMARY
### 3.7 — What a PAYING USER sees right now that is not true
1. **`/compare` — fabricated grades, nav-linked + public.** Hardcoded Jokić A+ / Wembanyama A + fake "VYNDR VERDICT" (`compare/page.tsx:10-62`). No data behind it. **The single worst live lie.**
2. **FAQ — phantom processor.** "We use NexaPay" (`FAQ.tsx:28`); every legal/pricing page says Stripe. Also founder price inconsistency ($24.99 vs $19.99).
3. **FAQ + Features — Brier/CLV over-claim.** "Brier score and CLV… published / from day one · Public accuracy by tier" (`FAQ.tsx:498`, `Features.tsx:323`). No Brier surfaced anywhere; CLV held. `CANNOT DETERMINE` a live Brier surface — because none exists.
4. **Mobile edge board — placeholder edge%.** `MobileEdgeBoard.tsx:44` renders a miscalibrated edge feed, masking >40% to "—". The numbers ≤40% still come from a placeholder pipeline. Live on mobile Slate.
5. **Price triplet / EV markers advertised-and-absent.** Grade schema carries `ev_pct`/`p_win`/`model_odds`/`value`/`takeable`; all **NULL on live grades** — the "model price" leg and VALUE marker don't render though the design promises them.
Not inflated (verified honest): grades are B/C only with A/D/F below n≥20 → `pct:null` everywhere; `AccuracyBadge`/`ModelRecord`/`TierRecord`/ledger all honor the n≥20 gate and self-hide. Hit-rate (59%, n=763) shows **without ROI/CLV** (CLV frequently null) — thin, not false.
### 3.8 — The graveyard (built, no user can reach it)
1. **`BookComparison.tsx`** — 0 importers. Backend `/api/books` is live + honest; nothing renders it. (S2 headliner.)
2. **`ShareCard.tsx`** — 0 real importers (S3 share cards).
3. **`components/GameCard.tsx` (legacy)** — type-only import; superseded by `vyndr/GameCard`.
4. **proj-v1 `proj_ladder`** — the above-line probability ladder; computed, ledger-only, never served.
5. **arch-v1 + contact-v1** — challengers, ledger-only, never served ("measured, never served").
6. **`TerminalTemplates.tsx`** — all SAMPLE data; `/terminal` redirects → effectively unrouted.
7. **`DemoScan.tsx`** — defined, never rendered.
8. **`/intelligence`** — REAL signals feed, but 0 nav links (orphan; reachable only by typing the URL).
9. **`/soccer`, `/marketplace`** — REAL pages, 0 nav links (orphans).
10. **`/notifications`** — `RouteStub`, unreachable.
11. **Offseason hub** — full design spec, no page built (prod `/offseason`→404).
## FULLY DONE (all five YES) — 15
Landing · Dashboard/Slate · Scan flow · Grade result card · Grade badge · Ledger ·
Tier-record · Pricing · Public profile `/u` · Player profile · Team hub · Explore ·
WIRE/Ticker · Streaks/Hot list · Live tracking.
## NEAREST TO DONE (one column from YES) — the shortlist a single order could finish
| Surface | The one gap | Finish move |
|---|---|---|
| **Book comparison (S2)** | WIRED: NO | Route `BookComparison.tsx` onto the card from the live `/api/books` store (crown stays off — measured flat). *Backend already shipped.* |
| **Parlay lab** | DESIGNED: PARTIAL | Accept the System "PARLAY BUILDER" spec as the lab spec (functionally live) — a doc call, not a build. |
| **Compare (H2H)** | HONEST: NO | Replace the hardcoded SAMPLE with a real two-player fetch, or pull it from nav until real. |
| **Price triplet** | HONEST: PARTIAL | Make the price-aware EV layer actually produce `p_win`/`ev_pct`/`model_odds` on served grades (built, not firing). |
| **Newsletter** | LIVE: PARTIAL | Confirm/enable Listmonk env (config `CANNOT DETERMINE` from outside). |
| **Slip reader** | WIRED: PARTIAL | Add one nav/More-sheet link (page is live + honest). |
| **Calibration / edge board** | HONEST: NO | Fix the placeholder edge% feed (backend), or hide the board until real. |
Two-plus columns out (bigger builds): **Alt-line ladder** (design + wire the served
probability ladder), **System/Intelligence terminal** (wire the orphan `/intelligence`),
**Article media/S3** (build in-article figures; `ShareCard` dead), **Offseason hub**
(no page at all).
*Tags: all cells VERIFIED against repo/prod/bundle except — Newsletter LIVE (Listmonk env)
and a live Brier surface = CANNOT DETERMINE (none found). Nothing BLOCKED.*
---
# HONESTY PASS — applied 2026-07-27 (commit 6bc18d8, deployed)
Removed/hid every KNOWN live fabrication. REMOVE/HIDE only — no grade, snapshot,
scorer, pipeline, or real feature touched. Updated HONEST cells:
| Item | Was | Now |
|---|---|---|
| /compare (row 20) | HONEST: NO — hardcoded Jokić A+/Wembanyama A + fake VERDICT, nav-linked | Honest **in-development** state; removed from Nav + BottomTabBar. Real two-player build **pulled, awaiting real build**. |
| Pricing (founder copy) | $34.99 desk / struck $19.99 / FAQ $24.99 — wrong | Founder **Desk $44.99** (matches lib/checkout.js), **Analyst $14.99**; struck "regular" numbers removed; DeskShowcase $34.99→$44.99. First-100 counter is REAL (ClaimMeter→Stripe). No "first 50" desk claim (no such counter). |
| FAQ processor | "NexaPay" | **Stripe** (verified live: Next→Express→checkout.stripe.com). `nexapay.ts` + its webhook route were **PURGED 2026-07-27** (NexaPay Purge order) — cross-project contamination, never a real VYNDR path. Provider-side env/keys + the orphaned `user_profiles.nexapay_customer_id` column flagged for Kev. |
| FAQ + Features "Brier/CLV published from day one" | INFLATED (not surfaced) | Removed. Returns when Brier/CLV are actually surfaced. Backend Brier compute untouched. |
| Calibration / edge board (row 24) | HONEST: NO — MobileEdgeBoard placeholder edge% (masked >40%) | **Removed** from the Slate; phones show the real game cards. Component kept as dead code (hidden, not deleted) until a real edge feed exists. |
| Price triplet (row 19) | HONEST: PARTIAL — null model/EV rendered "MODEL READ WITHHELD · poisoned" (false quarantine) | New **NO_MODEL** honest-absent state: MODEL "—" / "NOT PRICED", no verdict. Fixes grade card + LiveHeroProp. EV layer still doesn't *produce* values (separate build). |
## KEPT ON THE BOARD (real work to finish — NOT cut)
- **Article media / S3 (row 23)** — real feature + free SEO/distribution. Finish, don't delete. Only the false "Brier/CLV" claim about it was corrected.
- **Newsletter / THE WIRE (row 21, 13)** — real. Capture live, honest.
## FUTURE MODEL INPUT (logged only — not built this order)
- **News / line-movement signal** — injuries, scratches, lineups, weather move props before books reprice. Wire later as a model input. This is **ADDITIVE** to the media surfaces, not a replacement for them.
## KNOWN HONESTY GAPS (not fixed this order — logged, not fabrication)
- **Hit rate 59% (n=763) shown without ROI/CLV** — thin, not false. ROI/CLV surfacing is a later build.
- **CLV instrument REPAIRED 2026-07-28** (commit 6552281). Was: 59 usable closing_prob. Now: **406** (MLB 248, WNBA 158) — the collapse was `attachClosingProb`'s `.limit(50000)`/no-ORDER-BY read + write-once `market_unavailable`, NOT capture (95% per-prop coverage) or the join (0 key mismatches). **CLV finding, straight: MLB unders lag the close (mean −9.1 prob-pts, 74% lose); MLB overs +2.0; WNBA flat.** → the +4.57% MLB-C and over/under asymmetry are substantially stale-line artifacts. This UNBLOCKS the proof order (proj-v1.1), which gates promoting p_win/ev to served grades.
**Honest state after this order: "no KNOWN live fabrications" — not "provably none."** The audit was thorough (repo + prod), but absence of a claim of falsehood is not a proof of universal truth.
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