READ-ONLY. Nothing connected, built or wired; the accruing challengers were
not touched. "Dormant" meant three different things and in no case is the
answer "connect it".
DISTRIBUTION LADDER IS NOT DORMANT. projection/distribution.js is consumed
by projectionChallenger (proj-v1.1), live on every snapshot at 94.2%
coverage (276/293) with 437 settled rows since 2026-07-23. It is a FOURTH
accruing challenger, and it is LOSING: resolution 0.108 vs the champion's
0.331. That verdict is no longer thin.
It is also PER-STAT and doctrine-correct -- nine distinct league priors
(hits 0.90, total_bases 1.45, home_runs 0.15, ...) each feeding a
gamma-Poisson posterior into a negative binomial. Correcting the plan:
§10.3's "single additive index across hits/Ks/TB" is engine1's GRADE, not
this ladder, which made a solved problem look open.
SIMILARITY IS WRONG-SPORT. Zero callers, and its weights are NBA
vocabulary: pace 0.15, referee_tendency 0.06, lineup_context 0.12,
score_state_context 0.05, travel_fatigue 0.08. MLB has no pace and no
referees. Connecting it would be the sport-stubbed-in-on-another-sport's-
template breach, and it would fail QUIETLY -- missing factors are skipped,
so the score would silently collapse onto whatever few dimensions happened
to exist. CONSTRUCT, not connect.
BAYESIAN WOULD REGRESS THE MODEL. Zero callers, and DISTRIBUTION_SHAPES
keys on rbis / runs_scored / strikeouts_batter / outs_recorded /
pitcher_strikeouts / walks_allowed / pitches_thrown -- NONE of which are
live stat keys (S41: they are rbi / runs / outs / strikeouts).
getDistributionShape defaults to 'normal' on an unknown key, so wiring it
as-is would model COUNT stats as Gaussian, silently, on most MLB props. It
is also superseded by distribution.js. Do not connect; retire or rewrite.
DEPENDENCY, inverted: a better mean would help the ladder, but the ladder
is already connected and both would-be foundations are unusable -- so this
is not "connect similarity first", it is "the ladder is live and
underperforming, and strengthening its mean requires BUILDING an MLB
similarity layer that does not exist".
Next-order pointer moved to diagnosing proj-v1.1: the only candidate
already carrying settled evidence, and its diagnosis decides whether the
similarity build is worth doing at all.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01QJs13VsyiSKYQP6rj3NNmc
builtbykev
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