builtbykev 6c34af3414 checkpoint: chain shadow, WNBA possession feed, baseball chain ...

Backup commit of uncommitted working-tree state found during Legion
recon (Tony resurrection, STEP 0). This work existed only on the
laptop disk.

- chain shadow accrual + probe script (038_chain_shadow.sql)
- WNBA possession feed: ESPN adapter, usage service, verify script
  (039_wnba_player_game.sql)
- baseball chain
- retention/snapshot service updates, tableKeys, matchupKeys
- specs: chain-v1, wnba-possession-feed, wnba-source-survey
- unit tests for the above

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01QnvJAkC3h5QGmb6dipoiWn

2026-08-14 16:53:37 -04:00

..

audit-data

S63 fingerprint: probability layer verified live (p_win/ev_pct/model_odds)

2026-07-19 18:58:12 -04:00

design-reference

Design bundle (2): current source of truth — Scanner States + blue-boundary law

2026-07-22 19:10:54 -04:00

a1-s3-affiliate-partner-plumbing.md

S3 (a1): affiliate + partner plumbing

2026-07-11 14:28:18 -04:00

a1-s9-slip-reader.md

S9 (a1): slip reader — zero-API OCR

2026-07-11 19:32:17 -04:00

a1-s10-public-profiles.md

S10 (a1): public ledger profiles v1

2026-07-11 19:32:22 -04:00

a8-shadow-factor-gate.md

Read integrity, as-of context, and the shadow matchup resolve (A1-A7)

2026-08-11 22:49:56 -04:00

accrual-watch-and-resumption.md

Accrual watch + pre-registered resumption; the program is idle on modeling

2026-08-07 03:50:53 -04:00

arch-v1-axis-audit.md

arch-v1 axis audit: env/matchup were dead; environment fixed

2026-08-01 04:12:28 -04:00

ARCHETYPE-TAXONOMY-DOCTRINE.md

Doctrine + E1 movement strip + F9-F11 offseason hub shell, to spec

2026-08-07 21:24:36 -04:00

batter-cluster-prove.md

Measure the batter cluster: the proven set is empty, and hits is closed

2026-08-03 16:58:57 -04:00

BOARD-2026-08-07.md

Board: mechanical inventory of every outstanding item, read from the repo

2026-08-07 15:13:02 -04:00

build2-review-zero-report.md

report: Build 2 Review Zero — G1-G6 + DB verified; two order expectations wrong

2026-07-31 17:07:54 -04:00

build2-review-zero.md

report: Build 2 Review Zero — payment mechanism BLOCKED, no Stripe credentials

2026-07-31 08:30:32 -04:00

chain-v1.md

checkpoint: chain shadow, WNBA possession feed, baseball chain

2026-08-14 16:53:37 -04:00

challenger-scoreboard.md

Scoreboard every challenger; diagnose the 429 as odds-api, not PropLine

2026-08-02 22:07:43 -04:00

champion-input-diagnosis.md

Decompose the champion: its whole edge is a hit-rate counter

2026-08-02 23:54:51 -04:00

champion-repair.md

Repair the champion: it was reading ten games, not a season

2026-08-07 03:28:33 -04:00

collapsed-sequence-edge.md

Collapsed sequence edge: two proven links whose product is too small to use

2026-08-06 02:43:23 -04:00

combat-intelligence.md

Combat intelligence spec (Wave 6): honest free v1, pinned archetype registry

2026-07-13 16:07:33 -04:00

conditioning-registry.md

Build the conditioning registry, and a probe so "proven" stops drifting

2026-08-03 21:49:51 -04:00

connect-opportunity-step0.md

Step 0 input check: stop before wiring opportunity, and why

2026-08-01 02:40:46 -04:00

CONTENT-ENGINE.md

Content engine: posts that structurally cannot lie

2026-08-07 16:34:57 -04:00

d1-close-review-zero.md

report: D1-close Review Zero — mount not performed, three findings

2026-07-31 06:25:05 -04:00

defense-ingest-and-cumulative-correction.md

Ingest defence, and make Bonferroni cumulative across the programme

2026-08-03 22:20:30 -04:00

DESIGN-SPEC.md

DESIGN-SPEC.md v2 — the raised standard (governs the design train)

2026-07-12 16:52:13 -04:00

design-vs-build-gap-audit.md

report: design-vs-build gap audit — 61 items enumerated, 18 absent

2026-07-31 05:45:56 -04:00

dormant-layer-audit.md

Dormant-layer audit: nothing to connect; proj-v1.1 is live and losing

2026-08-02 01:51:00 -04:00

edge-pct-display-retirement.md

Order B: retire edge_pct display. Promotion gate NOT passed — no flip.

2026-07-31 00:57:57 -04:00

edge-shading-challenger.md

Edge-shading challenger: built + measured. Flooding NOT fixed — input scale is the bug

2026-07-31 00:39:13 -04:00

factor-wiring-hits.md

Wire the three proven hits factors pre-grade: transmission proven, gain

2026-08-07 02:53:48 -04:00

feature-1-1-odds-api.md

Sessions 5-7a: 955 tests, deployment ready

2026-06-08 18:35:13 -04:00

feature-1-2-nba-api.md

feat: Feature 1.2 (NBA stats FastAPI service) + Feature 1.4 (database schema)

2026-03-21 10:58:58 -04:00

feature-1-3-prop-analysis.md

Sessions 5-7a: 955 tests, deployment ready

2026-06-08 18:35:13 -04:00

feature-1-4-database-schema.md

Sessions 5-7a: 955 tests, deployment ready

2026-06-08 18:35:13 -04:00

feature-1-5-bet-submission.md

Sessions 5-7a: 955 tests, deployment ready

2026-06-08 18:35:13 -04:00

feature-2-1-parlay-scan.md

Sessions 5-7a: 955 tests, deployment ready

2026-06-08 18:35:13 -04:00

feature-2-2-line-movement.md

feat: Feature 2.2 — Line Movement + Cascade Detection

2026-03-21 14:21:34 -04:00

feature-3-1-landing-page.md

Sessions 5-7a: 955 tests, deployment ready

2026-06-08 18:35:13 -04:00

feature-3-2-scan-ui.md

Sessions 5-7a: 955 tests, deployment ready

2026-06-08 18:35:13 -04:00

feature-3-3-bet-tracker.md

Sessions 5-7a: 955 tests, deployment ready

2026-06-08 18:35:13 -04:00

feature-3-4-stripe.md

Sessions 5-7a: 955 tests, deployment ready

2026-06-08 18:35:13 -04:00

feature-4-1-model-learning-loop.md

spec: Feature 4.1 — Model Learning Loop (Phase 4 backlog)

2026-03-22 10:32:59 -04:00

feature-a1-s7-newsletter.md

S7 (a1): newsletter — THE VYNDR REPORT

2026-07-11 14:29:22 -04:00

forward-model-reality-assessment.md

Reality assessment: the forward model exists, wired to the wrong side of the pipe

2026-08-03 00:53:56 -04:00

free-proof-surface-review-zero.md

report: free proof surface Review Zero — three of four leads have no data source

2026-07-31 07:43:12 -04:00

full-output-grade-mapping.md

report: full-output grade mapping spec + collapse cost measured

2026-07-30 23:47:11 -04:00

grade-board-sort.md

Grade-board sort: signed signal, takeable-gated p_win, missing sorts LAST

2026-07-29 21:13:51 -04:00

grade-cap-and-refusal-diagnosis.md

Verify the cap raise on prod: 7 -> 365 graded props

2026-08-01 02:22:30 -04:00

grade-diagnostic-t0.md

report: grade diagnostic T0 — p_win is MISCALIBRATED, and it explains the inversion

2026-07-31 20:12:20 -04:00

grade-fix-part1-investigation.md

report: grade fix Part 1 — the p_win-vs-fair_prob rebuild is REFUTED by the data

2026-07-31 19:57:21 -04:00

HANDOFF-2026-08-08.md

Handoff doc: ground-truth build state at 71d3b7b

2026-08-08 00:10:34 -04:00

hits-v1-binomial.md

hits-v1 fingerprint PASSED: 72/72 written in prod, 45 outside the band modelled anyway

2026-08-02 22:08:12 -04:00

incomplete-surface-triage.md

report: incomplete-surface build triage; boundary tag NOT applied (no promotion exists)

2026-07-31 01:49:55 -04:00

lineup-k-rate-rung1.md

Derive the lineup K-rate free, and fingerprint the cap fix

2026-08-03 19:47:01 -04:00

link2-pen-quality.md

Link 2 at the coarse grain: pen QUALITY proves, archetype does not

2026-08-06 02:17:00 -04:00

LIVE-TRACKING.md

S11 (a1): live tracking — the read locked, the game watched

2026-07-12 00:45:29 -04:00

lodo-instrument-audit.md

Audit the LODO instrument: it cannot evaluate any stat, and both prior

2026-08-06 23:01:57 -04:00

lodo-provisional-calibration.md

LODO-gated provisional calibration: total_bases deploys, hits withdrawn

2026-08-06 18:31:19 -04:00

lodo-threshold-power-derivation.md

Power-derive the LODO threshold: hits restored through the gate, rbi/runs

2026-08-06 20:15:32 -04:00

MASTER-PLAN.md

Takeable audit: the ledger is contaminated, and I caused it

2026-08-02 14:09:14 -04:00

matchup-axis.md

Matchup axis report + plan reconciled: three challengers now accruing

2026-08-02 01:15:51 -04:00

MEDIA-HUB-DESIGN-INVENTORY.md

Media/hub design inventory: the specs already exist, and so does a gap audit

2026-08-07 19:18:36 -04:00

mlb-recalibration-vs-consensus-ruler.md

MLB re-run vs consensus ruler: premise dissolved, isotonic DECIDED

2026-08-01 01:12:47 -04:00

model-architecture-recovery-map.md

report: model architecture recovery map — the live grade uses 0 of 3 specced layers

2026-07-30 23:16:34 -04:00

model-train.md

Spec: metrics-engine north star + sourcing scope report (no code)

2026-07-19 21:43:59 -04:00

odds-429-diagnosis.md

Scoreboard every challenger; diagnose the 429 as odds-api, not PropLine

2026-08-02 22:07:43 -04:00

opportunity-drift-axis.md

opportunity_drift: coverage 94%, collinearity PASSES, holdout n-blocked

2026-08-01 03:23:24 -04:00

order-zero-book-breadth-test.md

Order Zero: book-breadth test + accrual clock correction (measure-only)

2026-07-31 23:19:23 -04:00

order-zero-consensus-ruler.md

Order Zero Phases 1-3: keyed verification, ruler_version boundary, report

2026-07-31 23:52:28 -04:00

order-zero-widening.md

Order Zero: tier-reality report + widening fingerprint

2026-08-01 00:57:12 -04:00

per-archetype-grade-bands.md

Per-archetype grade bands: built, gated, and the rescale blocked twice

2026-08-06 01:03:10 -04:00

per-archetype-re-audit.md

Per-archetype re-audit: no slot reaches 500, and the replication unit

2026-08-05 19:58:37 -04:00

phase-0-kill-the-lies.md

Session 57: Phase 0 — Kill the Lies (2309 tests)

2026-07-10 20:17:49 -04:00

phase-1-truth-infrastructure.md

Session 58: Phase 1 spec + ledger_entries migration (pre-apply commit)

2026-07-10 20:49:28 -04:00

pitcher-engine-strikeouts.md

Build the pitcher engine, and find the cap was eating the whole board

2026-08-03 18:43:32 -04:00

pre-audit-status-pull.md

report: pre-audit status pull — no promotion occurred; matrix re-derived (15/26)

2026-07-31 01:40:04 -04:00

proj-v11-diagnosis.md

Diagnose proj-v1.1: concentrated mean failure, NOT a similarity problem

2026-08-02 02:50:13 -04:00

propline-audit.md

Session 56: Full audit — PropLine + boxscore + pipeline + sport coverage (2289 tests)

2026-07-10 17:00:29 -04:00

pwin-recalibration-holdout.md

report: p_win recalibration holdout — MLB qualifies on isotonic, WNBA abstains

2026-07-31 21:26:21 -04:00

rank-on-pwin-challenger.md

WNBA truth correction + THE p_win FLIP (live, rollback armed)

2026-08-01 01:55:43 -04:00

rbi-resolution-anomaly.md

Decompose the rbi anomaly: it is lineup ROLE, and the counter is

2026-08-07 03:09:44 -04:00

re-adjudication.md

Re-adjudicate: nothing to demote, and close the hole that would have mattered

2026-08-04 15:13:39 -04:00

read-integrity-harness.md

Read integrity, as-of context, and the shadow matchup resolve (A1-A7)

2026-08-11 22:49:56 -04:00

reliever-chain.md

Reliever chain: Link 1 proves, Link 2 does not, and the premise inverts

2026-08-06 01:58:38 -04:00

render-reachability-guard.md

Render-reachability guard: make built-but-unread a CI failure

2026-08-07 14:44:17 -04:00

resolution-and-clv-investigation.md

report: resolution + CLV investigation — Part 1 premise false, Part 2 is an env flag

2026-07-31 19:38:19 -04:00

resolution-ceiling-and-the-duel.md

Instrument the calibration duel forward; diagnose the resolution ceiling

2026-08-07 02:25:45 -04:00

restamp-a.md

Re-stamp A: 862 rows recovered by honest join (not 936 -- see deviation)

2026-08-02 16:22:06 -04:00

robust-bias-lowparam.md

Robust bias established; low-parameter correction replaces isotonic

2026-08-06 23:20:05 -04:00

ROW-GRAMMAR.md

S11 (a1): live tracking — the read locked, the game watched

2026-07-12 00:45:29 -04:00

runs-rbi-per-archetype.md

runs + RBI: mostly-base-rate confirmed, and one level deeper than expected

2026-08-06 14:42:33 -04:00

served-grade.md

Serve an honest grade: the letter was carrying 1/6 the information of the

2026-08-07 04:53:02 -04:00

session55-self-learning.md

Session 55: Self-learning loop + real-time layer (2274 tests)

2026-07-10 15:39:13 -04:00

session-8-ops-watch.md

S8 (a1): ops — the product watches itself

2026-07-11 14:34:45 -04:00

settlement-and-four-stat-calibration.md

Settle model_snapshots + four-stat calibration: works, deploys nowhere

2026-08-06 15:30:30 -04:00

skill-engine-architecture.md

The skill engine: built, gated by construction, and Stage A honestly lost

2026-08-03 02:20:40 -04:00

snapshot-retention.md

Phase 2 (a) report + (b) retention design — REPORT-FIRST, nothing built

2026-07-19 22:40:43 -04:00

stagea-gate-result.md

Build the gate, run it, and find we were proving things on the wrong stat

2026-08-03 02:34:02 -04:00

STATE.md

plan: specs/MASTER-PLAN.md — single source of truth, 7 phases, ~23 orders, defined END

2026-07-31 22:15:10 -04:00

takeable-enforcement-audit.md

Takeable audit: the ledger is contaminated, and I caused it

2026-08-02 14:09:14 -04:00

takeable-enforcement.md

Takeable enforcement: verified on real rows, 1,006 tagged, re-stamp call ready

2026-08-02 14:24:28 -04:00

takeable-tagging.md

Ledger takeable tagging (deferred C2); efficiency challenger BLOCKED

2026-07-31 00:19:13 -04:00

tb-per-archetype.md

total_bases: every power factor is THEATER, and a units bug nearly hid it

2026-08-06 03:13:35 -04:00

tb-solo-and-interactions.md

Prove both on total bases -- and find that my own fix destroyed the backtest

2026-08-03 16:27:11 -04:00

tb-v1-compound.md

tb-v1 report + plan: diagnosis on trial, branch pre-registered

2026-08-02 03:34:14 -04:00

tier-redesign-spec.md

spec: tier redesign (Option 2, settled-free / live-paid) — design + build order

2026-07-31 07:06:33 -04:00

tier-structure-pull.md

report: tier structure pull — the declared free-tier gate is unenforced on the board

2026-07-31 06:40:43 -04:00

top-graded-selector.md

Build /api/props/top-graded server selector: rank with p_win, serve without it

2026-07-29 22:05:30 -04:00

truth-everywhere-train.md

Truth-train decisions locked: futures (quota-disciplined), soccer deferred, ESPN gamelog verified

2026-07-13 18:23:25 -04:00

under-querying-vs-out-of-data.md

Under-querying vs out of data: the answer depends on the unit

2026-08-05 19:30:17 -04:00

VOICE.md

A1 board: commit NORTH STAR v1.1 + VOICE v1.1 to /specs

2026-07-11 11:21:20 -04:00

VYNDR-NORTH-STAR.md

A1 board: commit NORTH STAR v1.1 + VOICE v1.1 to /specs

2026-07-11 11:21:20 -04:00

vyndr-roadmap.md

S9 (a1): slip reader — zero-API OCR

2026-07-11 19:32:17 -04:00

wave1-wiring.md

docs: Wave 1 wiring recorded + honest fingerprint limitation (nav entries -> Chrome audit)

2026-07-31 05:01:33 -04:00

wave3-compare-and-resolution-tail.md

docs: Wave 3 recorded — /compare live-verified; resolution tail scoped

2026-07-31 05:35:10 -04:00

wave-d1-primitives.md

Wave D1 primitives — and the audit says E1/E9 were not Wave 1

2026-08-07 20:31:55 -04:00

window-bug-class-audit.md

Hunt the window-bug class: three more paths, and the forward re-audit rule

2026-08-07 03:40:20 -04:00

wiring-data-train.md

NexaPay purge: VYNDR is Stripe-only — remove all NexaPay traces

2026-07-27 16:51:59 -04:00

wnba-possession-feed.md

checkpoint: chain shadow, WNBA possession feed, baseball chain

2026-08-14 16:53:37 -04:00

wnba-source-survey.md

checkpoint: chain shadow, WNBA possession feed, baseball chain

2026-08-14 16:53:37 -04:00