PROMOTE-THE-EARNED. Nothing was promoted, because nothing earned it -- not
because the bar was held high. Measured on the same bar that refuted hits-v1:
own rows only, direction-aligned, paired bootstrap, promote only on a CI
excluding zero.
arch-v1 n=1741 delta 0.0000 CI[-0.0050,+0.0054] inconclusive
contact-v1 n=1055 delta +0.0008 CI[-0.0052,+0.0069] inconclusive
proj-v1.1 n=1664 delta -0.0301 CI[-0.0543,-0.0060] reliably WORSE
matchup/tb-v1/hits-v1 n=0 genuinely pending (rows dated 08-02+)
arch-v1 is the interesting one: it MOVED 76% of rows by 2.5 points on average
and resolution is identical to the champion to four decimals, on the moved
rows too. That is active movement carrying no information -- a finding, not a
pending verdict.
These are true prospective holdouts: arch-v1 and contact-v1 wrote p_win at
grade time into their own columns before the game. Nothing recomputed.
THE 429, read-only. The premise was that we re-pull the full picture every
slot and blow the quota. Measured: PropLine is at 5 calls of 3,000/day --
0.17%. One snapshot is ONE PropLine call per sport, all markets comma-joined.
There is no request-pattern problem, so a change-based pull cannot fix it and
no tier upgrade is needed.
The 429 is odds-api: 478/500 MONTHLY, blocked at 95%. oddsService falls
through silently when PropLine returns empty, and the backup's quota gate
throws the error -- so an empty slate is indistinguishable from an outage and
the message names the wrong provider. Flagged for its own order.
Could NOT verify PropLine movement endpoints: docs are auth-gated and the keys
are production-only. Not asserted either way. The movement-as-data argument
stands on its own merits and should be justified that way, not as a quota fix
it isn't.
Book-breadth invariant written down: we never discard books. All are kept and
shown (DISPLAY_BOOKS = MODEL + REFERENCE + DFS); DFS pick'em is excluded from
PRICING only, because a fixed-payout shaded number is not a market price.
Verified this is already what bookRoles.js does.
Champion byte-identical; every challenger stays wired.
4,159 tests green (332 suites); web build exit 0.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01W1sivYNqY2TS5ftykmHBU9
Hits was diagnosed as a family mismatch: 84% of hits rows trade at 0.5, so
the stat rides on P(0), and a negative binomial has unbounded support and no
notion of opportunity at all. hits-v1 models it as the bounded conversion it
is -- N ~ the player's empirical at-bat distribution, hits|N ~ Binomial(N,q),
with the multiplier scaling q (conversion) and never N (opportunity).
STEP 0 confirmed the inputs before the model existed: 30/30 real ledger
players, 100% combined-input coverage. Every read goes through knownRate --
a row with no atBats is dropped, never counted as a 0-at-bat game.
It FIRES: 158/159 hits props (99.4%) on the live production snapshot, through
the real attachProjection path. Scoping by book IDENTITY rather than price
shape kept 94 out-of-promotion-band props on the board, 93 of them modelled --
59% that a price rule would have deleted.
And it LOST. Point-in-time replay (game log truncated strictly before each
row's game_date, real grade-time multiplier), hits-only, direction-aligned,
n=242: resolution champion 0.195 / ladder 0.048 / hits-v1 0.026. Paired
bootstrap on the same rows: hits-v1 - ladder = -0.022, CI95 excluding zero.
Not promoted.
The value is in what it eliminates. The family was wrong AND the mean was not
the constraint -- hits-v1 moved the line-0.5 mean 0.554 -> 0.581 toward a
0.598 base rate while resolution fell. What is left is per-prop
discrimination: the ladder's inputs, not its distribution.
The pre-registered fallback is recorded as WRONG rather than deleted. It said
hits might be genuinely low-resolution for anyone; the champion scores 0.276
on the identical 189 rows, so there is real signal and the ceiling claim was
the comfortable reading, not the honest one. Its own control refuted it, and
that control was already in hand when the branch was written.
hits-v1 stays wired as a challenger writing its own ledger columns so the
forward accrual can confirm the backtest. Champion, ladder, ranking,
calibration, reference ruler and the four accruing verdicts are byte-identical
-- the diff has zero deleted lines.
Tests 4,156 green (332 suites); web build exit 0.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01W1sivYNqY2TS5ftykmHBU9
IDENTITY (CLAUDE.md top + MASTER-PLAN header). VYNDR is a PREDICTIVE MODEL:
it projects what a player will DO and picks accurately. Market edge is a
BYPRODUCT of a good prediction, never the success criterion. Success =
the forecast is honest about its own confidence AND still ranks --
calibration and resolution, both. No edge/CLV term belongs in a pass/fail
gate; they are diagnostics we report, not thresholds a model must clear.
A model tuned to beat a closing line has been fitted to the market instead
of to the game.
Per-sport doctrine (Phillips 2022, classify by what players DO not by
position): each sport is its own model -- own variables, archetypes,
conditions, calibration, honest ceiling. Shared across sports: ONLY the
Bayesian inference math.
Truth Law: no fabricated data; honest-absent over invented; label
limitations in-band; provisional stays provisional until re-run;
documented is not verified.
PHASE 2 -- AGGREGATOR WIDENING (live). normalizeProps now emits every
DISPLAY book instead of 5 of 18. Before this we discarded 13 books of our
own accord and 64.8% of the MLB slate was invisible to users. Every prop
carries book_role (both/takeable/reference/dfs/offshore) so the display
layer can say WHAT a price is -- a fixed-payout DFS number and a two-way
sportsbook price are not interchangeable objects. Unknown books are still
dropped.
PHASE 3 -- MODEL GATE (the model does not move). bookRoles splits
MODEL_BOOKS (the legacy allow-list, character for character) from
DISPLAY_BOOKS. Both model paths re-filter before they pick a line:
gradeSlateService.dedupeProps (before first-row-wins AND before the limit)
and intradayRefreshService.indexOddsProps (which RE-GRADES at the current
line -- without the gate, widening would have silently moved locked lines
onto books the model has never been calibrated against). A test asserts
the graded set is byte-identical through the widening.
CURRENT_RULER_VERSION stays v1_first_book. The gate lifts only when the
MLB calibration is re-run on the consensus ruler and v2 is promoted.
HONEST FRAMING, recorded in the plan: this is an AGGREGATOR win and it
does NOT fix the model. WNBA still abstains -- a model problem, not a
coverage problem; it is better covered than MLB. MLB isotonic still
provisional. The consensus is MARKET, not SHARP: pinnacle, matchbook and
polymarket are 0% on both sports, so no sharp anchor exists in our feed.
Two superseded tests updated to stronger properties rather than deleted:
roleOf now names the KIND of book, and the normalizer test asserts the
display set widens WHILE the model set does not.
Gates: 4,027 tests / 322 suites green; next build exit 0.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01QJs13VsyiSKYQP6rj3NNmc
Display ORDERING only. No grade, ledger row, lock_line, scoring, or edge_pct
scale/display change. Push scoring untouched.
Two defects removed from selectTopGrades (wrong at ANY scale, independent of
edge_pct's separate retirement):
1. edge: Math.abs(numOr(g.edge, -Infinity)) — abs() on an already-
direction-signed value ranked the model's strongest DISAGREEMENTS level
with its strongest agreements (177 public ledger rows carry a negative
edge; positive = the model AGREES with the graded side).
2. Math.abs(-Infinity) === Infinity, so a row with NO edge sorted FIRST —
absent data presented as the top pick (the Number(null) class).
New key: grade -> confidence -> takeable-gated p_win (nulls LAST) -> SIGNED
edge (nulls LAST) -> input order. Scales are never mixed in one comparator.
Takeable band = web valueState.isTakeable, asserted byte-equal to the hero's
config/valueEngine.isTakeable (-160..+200) incl. strict-null.
Alt-line ladder (analyzeViaEngine1:506) no longer sorts by edge_pct: ordered
highest-p_win-first derived analytically at zero added compute — P(stat >= k)
is monotone non-increasing in k, so p_win-desc is line-ASC for an over and
line-DESC for an under. base stays marked; no consumer depends on
alt_lines[0]; deskShowcaseService.rungsOf already re-sorted by line.
THREE PREMISE BREAKS found report-first, before code:
- /api/props/top-graded 404s in prod (absent from src/) so the dashboard
board renders receipts/empty — the edge sort orders nothing there today.
The prior order's "97.3% of rows tie" was a LEDGER measurement wrongly
extrapolated to that board. Fix is correct-in-itself and lands when the
feed is restored.
- p_win cannot be a client-side key for all tiers: snapshotGating strips it
for unentitled tiers ("shipping p_win is shipping the model price").
Verified live: prod /api/snapshot carries p_win on 0/8 MLB, 0/25 WNBA.
- Ladder rungs carry no per-rung price, so the takeable gate is inapplicable.
Verified on real data, both sports, both paths: unentitled — WNBA (n=25)
ordering CHANGED, MLB (n=8) unchanged, signed edge non-increasing in every
(grade,confidence) tie group (20 pairs, 0 violations); entitled — 40 real
ledger rows with p_win+locked_odds, p_win-descending, untakeable chalk NOT
promoted (Trea Turner .757 @-275 does not beat Rhyne Howard .745 @-120)
(36 pairs, 0 violations).
Hero consistency, stated honestly: same signal + same gate, different
precedence BY CONTRACT (board = grade-tier-first "top GRADES"; hero =
p_win-first "top read"). Identical within the leading tier (verified); across
tiers the board may lead with an A the hero doesn't pick. Not a contradiction.
Floor: 310 suites / 3864 tests green, web build exit 0. Dashboard + Desk
visuals are auth/feed-gated -> tagged for the Chrome audit, no visual faked.
Held: edge_pct rescale/display retirement (Order B); building the missing
/api/props/top-graded selector; exposing p_win to unentitled tiers.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01QJs13VsyiSKYQP6rj3NNmc
Folds re-sequenced steps 1+2 into one change (Kev's call): same bug
family — features wired to sources that return null.
THE PROBABILITY LAYER WAS DEAD IN PRODUCTION. p_win/ev_pct/kelly/
model_odds/value were absent on 0/8 live grades because
gameLogService.getGameLogs returns null for MLB by construction and
depends on the offline Python service for NBA/WNBA, so meta.gameLogs was
[] for every sport. This was the S46 bug in a second location — that fix
gave featureCache an MLB branch (why grades still worked) but never the
estimator. featureCache.getStatRows now supplies normalized rows
([{date,[statType]:v}], most-recent-first) for every sport, feeding the
estimator AND consistency AND game_count_in_7d from one fetch.
VERIFIED on real props: p_win 25/25 WNBA, 8/8 MLB (was 0).
GRADE RANGE, ON MERIT — never by rescaling (permanent founder ruling:
minting A's without new information is a relabelled B sold as an A and
corrupts an append-only ledger).
- refreshTeamStats wired into runSnapshot — it had ZERO production
callers, so opp_rank_stat was permanently null and a +/-1.0 factor
could never fire. Test-env no-op (opsNotify precedent).
- L20 made SYMMETRIC: both branches were delta +1.0, so the season
baseline could only ever ADD. No negative path was a structural reason
D was unreachable. New l20_contradicts_* carries -1.0.
- game_count_in_7d derived from real logged dates (heavy_workload_7d).
- NOT wired, deliberately, with reasons inline: teamId (no team_id
column; getFeatures reads it top-level; factor also needs a starter-id
list) and season_type (ESPN 2 = REGULAR season; threading it raw would
fire veteran_in_playoffs in July). Dead code dressed as a fix is the
thing we are removing, not adding.
CALIBRATION GUARD (found by verifying, not assuming): consistency CV is
NBA-tuned; for a Poisson-ish stat cv ~ 1/sqrt(mean), so any stat with
mean < 4 auto-classifies boom_bust. First verification run showed 8/8 MLB
props boom_bust — a blanket -1.0 that dropped the board to all-C. Floored
at CONSISTENCY_MIN_MEAN=4 -> 'unknown' below. Absent beats wrong. MLB
low-count stats therefore still get no consistency factor: honest, not
fixed. Scale-free index-of-dispersion classifier is the open follow-up.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT A PROBABILITY: payloads carry confidence_basis:
'grade_band'. Corrected mlb-grade-degradation.md — its "25/25
grade<->confidence agreement" is a TAUTOLOGY (confidence is derived FROM
the letter, so it would report 25/25 even if every grade were wrong), not
a validation. Removed dead mlbGrader.js (referenced only by its own test)
and the stale computeFeatures comment claiming a penalty that never ran.
VERIFICATION (scripts/verify-grade-range.js, real props/logs/engine):
WNBA 25 props B 68%->32%, C 32%->64%, D 0->1 (4%); 11-step spread went
from 2 steps to 5 (C/C+/B-/D). The D is earned: Angel Reese assists o2.5,
p_win 0.365. Nothing flooded — grades got HARDER. A did not emit locally
because opp_rank_stat needs the Redis cache only prod populates (local
ceiling +3.0 vs the +4.5 A needs); reachability is proven arithmetically
and locked in tests. Prod A-emission is the outstanding fingerprint.
MARKETING HOLD: "A-RATED" (AccuracyBadge, TopSignals) is unsupported
until that fingerprint. Confirmed honest fallbacks render today —
/api/ledger/accuracy has B and C buckets only, so the badge shows
"MODEL · 63% HIT" and TopSignals self-hides. Nothing fabricated ships.
Suite 276/3286 green, web build exit 0.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01SmNjJAwEnqHPtXbvSZR8kA
MLB statsapi + WNBA ESPN live boxscores -> per-player current values
(live:{sport}:{date} TTL 90s, /api/live/:sport + Next proxy). Pure
propState math (HIT / ON PACE / NEEDS N / HOLDS / LINE PASSED — never
red in-progress), attachLiveProgress strip join on nameKey+statType,
proximity-to-hit slate float, StatStrip LiveTracker in the ROW-GRAMMAR
outcome slot (spec amended + lock test updated). Grades never change
in-game — tracking, labeled as such. 2698 -> 2757 tests, web build 0.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
- specs/ROW-GRAMMAR.md: the row grammar law (slot order, color law, mark
law, mobile stacking, no-truncation), locked by tests/unit/rowGrammar.
StatStrip violations fixed: MovementChip before the grade (market
context before model output); ViabilityChips after the archetype
(identity is one contiguous run).
- Line-movement sparklines: intradayRefreshService.trackHistory captures
real {t,line} points per grade (seeded with the lock, deduped when
flat, capped 24) inside the snapshot write-back; StatStrip.LineSparkline
renders at >=3 points (green toward / amber against / dim flat).
- Last-10 dot strips: services/last10Dots (streaksService accessors) ->
/api/snapshot/:sport attaches last10_dots from rosterlogs:{sport};
StatStrip.DotStrip renders vs the LOCKED line, newest first.
- CLV distribution: getModelAggregate emits clv_distribution (7 signed
buckets, outliers clamped) only past the centralized n>=20 gate;
ledger MODEL header renders the bar strip.
- Global search: SearchModal (cmd-K via GlobalHosts + window.__search),
players via /api/players/search per sport + static lib/teams.js
(soccer deliberately absent); Nav search icon + Search first in the
mobile More sheet. Explore tab untouched.
- Landing LCP: fade-up floored at opacity .6 (hero h1 contentful on
first frame, S33 visible-floor rule) + IBM Plex Mono preload:false
(4 decorative font files off the slow-4G critical path).
2654 -> 2698 tests (226 suites) green; web build exit 0.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
tesseract.js (self-hosted WASM, Apache-2.0) + pure per-book layout
parsers (DK/FD/MGM/Caesars) with per-field confidence and needs_review
honesty — the reader never guesses. POST /api/slips/parse (auth, free
1/day paid 10/day, 4MB cap) + Next proxy. Gated /slip page: upload or
paste, manual-correct UI, per-leg grades through the normal engine
(refusals render honestly), add-all to Parlay Lab, share card. Vision
model upgrade logged post-revenue. 2574 -> 2608 tests.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Email capture + daily report assembly + operator-triggered Listmonk send.
- NewsletterCapture (dark terminal, mono) on landing (below FAQ) + /welcome
(the real signup success surface); double-opt-in note; 'Signups open soon'
when Listmonk env is unset.
- POST /api/newsletter/subscribe: public, 10/min IP limit, honeypot,
server-side email validation, forwards to Listmonk subscribers API with
preconfirm_subscriptions:false (Listmonk sends the confirmation).
No env -> calm 200 { ok:false, reason:'not configured' }. Next proxy
web/src/app/api/newsletter/subscribe/route.ts (S25 rule).
- newsletterService.buildDailyReport: signals from snapshot:{sport}:latest,
STREAK WATCH via rosterLogs -> streaksService -> streakLens, THE RECORD via
ledgerService.getModelAggregate (percentage only when hit_pct != null —
n>=20 gate — else 'RECORD BUILDING · N pending'). RG footer (21+,
1-800-GAMBLER, Listmonk-native {{ UnsubscribeURL }}) in html + text.
VOICE v1.1 lint locked by tests: no '!', no banned vocabulary, numbers
only from injected pipeline data.
- sendDailyReport: creates + starts a Listmonk campaign; env-gated no-op;
refuses an empty report. Deliberately UNSCHEDULED — only
POST /api/internal/newsletter/send (internal key) triggers it.
- docs/NEWSLETTER.md: box-side Listmonk runbook (install, double-opt-in
list, API user, Coolify env, test-send).
- Spec: specs/feature-a1-s7-newsletter.md.
Tests 2398 -> 2429 (207 suites, all green); next build exit 0.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
- QA.20: one meaning per color, locked — STEAM amber (caution), VALUE
green (edge), red only at STALE/miss; revisions render the original
grade struck through on slate AND ledger.
- QA.21: every new data surface (PriorReads, PlayerStreaks, ModelRecord)
renders data in mono (tabular-nums via the .mono class).
- QA.22: waiting copy derives from the real cron schedule on every
surface (StatStrip, dashboard, Explore) — no passive mystery anywhere.
- Explore empty state joined the honest-waiting lib.
- Sweep result: no raw brand hexes and no sans-serif data in tonight's
components (sans only on prose/captions/hero letter — sanctioned);
glow confined to A-tier badges + reveal chrome; 390px containment
holds (wrapping chips, scroll-contained tables from Phase 3 rules).
Backend 2352 -> 2396 tests (205 suites), web build exit 0.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Overnight sprint for the Saturday 10 AM ET deploy gate — day one of the
public ledger record locks against freshly posted lines.
Task A — ledger team/opponent (migration 020, applied at 0 rows):
populated in both write paths from the real feed; opponent only when the
player's team matches a game participant (never guessed). Roadmap: Phase
4.5 WNBA ESPN-boxscore settlement (due ~Jul 24) + Phase 5 per-tier
calibration logged.
Task B — work-order 1.6 CLOSED (canonical player keys):
- searchPlayer resolves via nameKey; the old matcher deleted accents
("Sanchez" with acute -> "snchez") and substring-guessed onto the WRONG
player (the mismatched last-10 bug). Ambiguous -> null, never guess.
- Slate JOIN INVARIANT: a graded prop whose player's real team isn't in
the game is dropped (TB player can't render under MIL@PIT) — locked by
tests that fail the suite on regression.
- grades:{sport} TTL 2h -> 6h (expired between 5h cron gaps — the real
cause of /team "No active props" for slate players).
Task C — Phase 2 slate UX: tabs are THE filter (URL ?sport=, deep-linkable,
duplicate legacy tablist removed); cards cap at 6 graded props sorted
A+->F with ALL N READS in-place expander; waiting states show the real
next pipeline run ("Grades post ~6:00 PM ET").
Task D — Phase 3 mobile P0: root cause of vanished 390px nav was HIDE_ON
including '/' (landing had zero navigation) — fixed; html/body overflow-x
contained; GAME LINES collapses to best-line summary + "N BOOKS" expander
below 640px; venue drops before time/pitchers ever truncate.
Live verification: raw ESPN today STILL returns the Jun 13 NYK@SA Finals
game without a date pin; the pinned fetch returns 0 games, 0 off-date.
Backend 2327 -> 2352 tests (202 suites), web build exit 0.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
ledger_entries is live (migration 019 applied to prod, RLS + NULLS NOT
DISTINCT dedupe verified against the real database). Every grade now
persists, settles against the real result, and carries closing-line value.
- ledgerService: pipeline pre-grade upserts (public model record, user_id
null, idempotent), closing capture on every snapshot (last write before
game start = the close), settlement with SIGNED CLV (over = locked -
closing; beat/faded/flat), 30d model aggregate with the hard n>=20 rule.
- Write paths: snapshotService -> ledger (priority path); Next /api/scan ->
ledger for authenticated users only (anon never touches the public
record). Refused reads write nothing and don't burn a scan.
- Honest refusal (work-order 1.5): no projection => insufficient_data,
grade null, "INSUFFICIENT DATA - no read" UI. The web gradeAdapter no
longer displays the line as the model projection (the audit's
model==line / +0% edge degenerate); the card renders absent states.
projectionFor is sport-aware (l5 -> l20 -> {stat}_per_90 -> xG).
- /ledger: MY READS | MODEL tabs; model header shows hit% + beat-close%
only at n>=20, else RECORD BUILDING + live pending count. ModelRecord
deferred-render strip on landing + player hero. CLV + outcome chips,
revised_from_grade strikethrough (Phase 2.5 ready).
- SYNC (Task 5): thresholds vs SNAPSHOT_EXPECTED_INTERVAL (normal <1.5x,
amber >=1.5x, STALE red >=3x) via /api/snapshot/summary.
- Phase 2.5 logged in specs/vyndr-roadmap.md (build after Phase 3).
- Data-semantics hardening: strict null-safe numeric parsing everywhere a
market value is handled (Number(null)===0 would have fabricated lines).
Backend 2309 -> 2327 tests (201 suites), web build exit 0.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Work-order Phase 0 (Jul 10 live audit): every fabricated UI element deleted
or rewired to real data. Deletion sprint — no new product features.
0.1 Fake NBA game: root cause was scheduleService fetching the ESPN
scoreboard with no ?dates= param or date filter — off-season ESPN
returns the NEAREST slate (Jun 13 NYK@SA Finals rendered as tonight).
Now pinned to the requested ET date + defensive filter; undated events
dropped. Honest month-aware per-sport empty states (lib/emptyState.js).
0.2 Fake header counters: liveTick stripped to a bare 1s pulse (the
auto-incrementing "247 graded", sin-driven brain-%, aPlus/cascades are
dead). New GET /api/snapshot/summary (cache-only, before /:sport) +
Next proxy; HeartbeatBar shows the real graded count and SYNC =
elapsed since the last pipeline run (amber past 5 min).
0.3 Ticker: hardcoded fallback items deleted (real snapshot exhaust only);
MOVE kept — computeLineDeltas is real movement. <4 real items → no
ticker; bar publishes --ticker-h so the fixed header collapses cleanly.
0.4 /terminal retired: route redirects to /dashboard; VVI/injury-wire/
leaders layouts preserved unrouted as §12 content-engine templates.
Nav PRIMARY = Slate/Scan/Ledger; BottomTabBar Terminal→Explore; PWA
shortcut Terminal→Ledger; #terminal alias → /dashboard.
0.5 ›Query nav pill deleted (duplicate /scan link).
Backend 2289 → 2309 tests (199 suites), web build exit 0.
Spec: specs/phase-0-kill-the-lies.md. Next: work-order Phase 1 (ledger
persistence + settlement).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Product overhaul core — the two transformative, differentiated systems:
Self-learning loop (Phase 2): outcomeService settles locked snapshot grades
against real MLB Stats API results → hit/miss/push, rolling accuracy by grade
tier (30d window). Idempotent, injectable, unit-tested. New GET /api/accuracy +
/api/ledger/accuracy + internal settle triggers + cron hook. AccuracyBadge
(dashboard/scan/landing) is honest — "LEARNING" below MIN_SAMPLE, never a fake
number. Settled HIT/MISS chips overlay the live slate.
Real-time layer (Phase 1): Slate silent 60s auto-refresh (no flash, no wipe on
transient blips) + "SIGNAL LIVE · UPDATED Xs ago" freshness strip; Ticker LIVE
badge that flashes on fresh events.
Landing (Phase 3): TopSignals shows tonight's real top-3 A-rated grades + live
accuracy — the product shown, not described.
Founder pricing: FOUNDER_CODE_EXPIRY default 2026-06-30 → 2026-12-31 (had
lapsed, disabling every founder code + the ClaimMeter pitch). That expiry — not
a tier change — was the real cause of the 4 stripe test failures.
Backend 2255 (4 failing) → 2274 (all green; +19 new, +4 fixed). Web build exit 0.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
P1 name edge cases (BOTH playerName.js copies, kept identical):
- normalizeName strips hyphens (display+key): "Jung-hoo Lee" === "Jung Hoo Lee".
- nameKey strips single-letter MIDDLE tokens: "Josh H Smith" === "Josh Smith"
(keeps first+last; real middle names + collapsed initials untouched).
- richie -> richard added to NICKNAMES.
P2 polish:
- Team Hub names normalized at the source (teamService.getTeamHub) so
"J.C. Escarra" renders as "JC Escarra" like the dashboard.
- snapshotService dedup keeps the highest-confidence GRADE but the richest
DISPLAY (accented "José" over "Jose") so prop rows match the pitcher line.
- correlationWarning names the game: "2 legs from the same game (NYY @ BOS)".
Backend 2246 -> 2255 tests (+9), 194 suites. Web build clean (exit 0).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
The link preview still showed engineer-speak ("Bayesian intelligence", "kill
conditions") because the OG meta tags were never updated after the S44 landing
cleanup.
- layout.tsx: de-jargoned the openGraph + main description + titles → "Pre-graded
player props with proprietary archetypes. Correlation-aware Parlay Lab.
Real-time line movement tracking. Built in Detroit." (Used "proprietary
archetypes" not "45" — codebase has 41.)
- NEW app/opengraph-image.tsx (+ twitter-image.tsx re-export): dynamically
generated 1200x630 card — VYNDR wordmark, "The books have every advantage. /
We built this to give it back." + feature row. Node runtime (not edge —
self-hosted standalone). Both routes prerender to a real PNG.
- Removed the stale /og-image.png metadata ref so the file convention owns the
image (no duplicate og:image tag).
Backend 2239 -> 2246 tests (+7), 193 suites. Web build clean (exit 0).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Trace-first: the normalizer functions were correct (S47) but raw names still
flowed through paths that skipped them. Fixed each leaking path.
- 2a (source chokepoint): snapshotService.runSnapshot normalizes each grade's
player to the de-dotted display AND dedupes to one grade per nameKey|stat
(highest confidence) before writing grades:{sport} + snapshot:latest. Every
consumer (GameCard, Explore, leaders, profile) now gets clean merged names.
- 2b: buildPlayerStripsFromProps dedupes a player's props by stat (graded >
awaiting) → one row per stat (kills "Ks 5.5 AND Ks 3.5" variant dupes).
- 2c: scan tonightsPlayers grid groups by nameKey, displays normalized name.
- 3: profile VYNDR INTELLIGENCE "+0%"/"—" was buildIntel's defaults (separate
from the grade card's buildIntelFields, which already works). resolvePlayerStats
now attaches real usage (AB/G) + rest (B2B/Xd); buildIntel renders them; REST
default is now "—".
Backend 2149 -> 2156 tests (+7), 181 suites. Web build clean (exit 0).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
- Name normalization completed: NICKNAMES table (Matt↔Matthew, Mike↔Michael...)
resolved in nameKey, parenthetical team-tag strip "(STL)", verified accent-fold
(Iván/Ivan, José/Jose). Slate strip now DISPLAYS the normalized de-dotted name
("AJ Ewing" not "A.J. Ewing") via buildPlayerStripsFromProps.
- Complete MLB VYNDR INTELLIGENCE: mlbGameLogFeatures derives rest_days (days off
between latest games; 0=B2B) + ab_per_game (usage). buildIntelFields renders
usage as "X AB/G", rest as B2B/Xd, matchup from bvp_advantage fallback.
- Ticker SCAN dedup: pushTickerItems keeps one SCAN per sport (sport field or
text-prefix parse for legacy); MOVE/GRADE preserved; cap 50.
- BOMBER threshold prorated for mid-season (hr>=15 strong / >=10 mod) so June
sluggers classify BOMBER not FLEX/DRIVER.
Backend 2122 -> 2149 tests (+27), 179 suites. Web build clean (exit 0).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Three focused P1 fixes on the Session-45 snapshot model.
- Grade card intel ROOT CAUSE: gameLogService is NBA/WNBA-only (offline Python),
so MLB props never got l5_avg/l20_avg and buildIntelFields returned {}. Wired
MLB game logs into featureCache.gameLogFeatures via mlbStatsAdapter.getPlayerStats
(pure mlbGameLogFeatures + MLB stat_type->field map). buildIntelFields gained
playerStats/projection fallbacks for partial intel.
- Player name normalization: src/utils/playerName.js (+ web/src/lib copy):
normalizeName -> {display,key}. Strips periods, de-dots suffix, accent-folds
the key. Applied in snapshotService grouping, slateAdapter grade index +
player-strip merge (variants collapse, longest name shown), and
playerIntelService. "A.J. Ewing"/"AJ Ewing" + "Jazz Chisholm"/"Jr." now merge.
- MLB starting pitchers: new GET /api/schedule/:sport/pitchers (probablePitchers
service wrapping mlbStatsAdapter.getScheduleWithPitchers + best-effort ERA).
Slate fetches it, builds a team->pitcher map (full name + mascot match),
attaches pitchers to MLB GameCardData. + Next proxy.
Backend 2100 -> 2122 tests (+22), 176 suites. Web build clean (exit 0).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
The on-demand "Read" grade model is RETIRED. A scheduled pipeline pre-grades the
slate, locks grades to the line, tracks movement; the dashboard shows them already
there. Orchestrates existing services — nothing rebuilt.
- snapshotService.runSnapshot(sport): getOdds → gradeAndCacheSlate → classify
archetype per player → lock gradedAt → line deltas vs previous snapshot → write
snapshot:{sport}:latest/previous + grades:{sport} → ticker events. Fully
injectable, zero-network unit tests. runAllSnapshots = cron entrypoint.
- Internal trigger POST /api/internal/snapshot/:sport + /all (requireInternalAuth).
In-process cron (SNAPSHOT_CRON=1, UTC 14,19,22,1,3) in server.js, no new dep.
- Public reads: GET /api/snapshot/:sport (cache-only) + GET /api/ticker (merges
TICKER_MANUAL pins) + Next proxies.
- GameCard swap: live Slate renders vyndr/GameCard (legacy kept for types only),
overlays locked grades onto game props → player name once + archetype badge +
"Graded Xh ago at -115 · Current 2.5 · ▲ TOWARD +1.0". Ungraded → "Awaiting next
scan", NO Read button. On-demand onGrade flow deleted.
- Ticker polls /api/ticker every 30s, graceful fallback to hardcoded items.
- NBA/WNBA: espnStatsAdapter free fallback (defensive parse → found:false on shape
mismatch) wired into resolvePlayerStats after the offline Python service.
Env: PROPLINE_API_KEY_1/2/3, VYNDR_INTERNAL_KEY, SNAPSHOT_CRON=1, TICKER_MANUAL.
Backend 2061 -> 2100 tests (+39), 173 suites. Web build clean (exit 0).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
P0 fixes + wiring real data into the S42 Player Intelligence architecture.
- P0 dropdown z-index: the nav's backdrop-filter stacking context let the
Ticker/HeartbeatBar paint over the avatar/More dropdowns and eat clicks.
nav now position:relative zIndex:2; menus zIndex:100. Avatar Settings ->
/settings.
- Real MLB stats: mlbStatsAdapter.searchPlayer + getPlayerStats (name->id->
season+gamelog). playerIntelService.resolvePlayerStats normalizes into the
archetype classifier; getPlayerIntel returns found:true + real season +
archetype classified from real stats. NBA via nbaStatsClient (degrades).
- Game cards: slateAdapter.groupPropsByPlayer (playerStrips, name once) +
mapPitchers (MLB probables), folded into mapScheduleToGameCards. Legacy
GameCard line grid renders BookChip (brand colors) not grey text.
- Grade card intel: analyzeViaEngine1.buildIntelFields computes stat-context +
form/usage/matchup/rest from the existing feature vector (zero extra I/O);
gradeAdapter lights up the card sections. Archetype deferred (needs season
line at grade time).
- Depth chart foundation: depthChartService (getLineup/getDepthChart/
getCascadeProjection) + /api/stats/lineup|depth|cascade, graceful + injectable.
- Mobile: player hero name overflow-wrap + 24px on <=640px (was clipping).
Backend 2011 -> 2045 tests (+34), 163 suites. Web build clean (exit 0).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Final phase of the VYNDR 2.0 conversion (Sessions 33-39). Verify -> fix -> lock.
Frontend-only; zero backend changes.
§13 automated checklist: all PASS or FIXED.
- QA.1 token resolution FIXED: ProcessingGrade #00ffb8 -> var(--g-ap);
game/[id] sport literals -> var(--s-*). Remaining hex documented as intentional
(var-with-fallback, Next metadata, bespoke intel-surface shades).
- QA.6 glitch discipline: ZERO glitch on data components.
- QA.4/5/8/11/16/18 verified; QA.9 (cmd palette) documented deferred;
QA.17 (AI slop) flagged for Kev's manual browser review.
De-flake: soccerFeatureExtractorCascade hit Jest's 5s default under full-suite
load (falls through to live adapters on cache miss) -> jest.setTimeout(20000),
same family as the S32 pipeline test. Verified stable across 3 full-suite runs.
New: tests/unit/vyndrParityQA.test.js (17 tests locking the parity invariants).
Backend 1890 -> 1907, 146 suites, zero regressions (stable x3). Web build clean.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
VYNDR 2.0 conversion, Phase G (the systems that make the design alive). All 5
wired. Frontend-only; zero backend changes.
- lib/parlayMath.js: correlation model (0.62/0.34/0.06/0) + parlayGrade penalty
+ grade->odds + combined odds (frontend; backend parlayService unchanged).
- lib/oddsFormat.js: fmtOdds across american/decimal/fractional/implied with the
totals-pass-through rule (safer than the prototype's parseAm, which would
mis-convert 228.5) + region presets.
- lib/prefs.js: applyPrefs sets <html data-*> (the S33 a11y CSS layer) + load/save.
- lib/liveTick.js: single tick engine (SSR/test-safe, no auto-start, fresh state).
- lib/checkout.js: checkoutUrl(plan).
- LiveLayer (useLive/LiveNumber/HeartbeatBar) under the Nav ticker; GlobalHosts in
layout applies prefs + registers __prefs/__goPaywall/__checkout + hosts the
Preferences and Paywall modals. Nav read-meter is now a paywall trigger.
Gotchas: useEffect can't return a Set.delete unsub directly (boolean != cleanup);
header grew to 124px so layout paddingTop + Slate sticky-top updated to match.
18 new tests. Backend 1872 -> 1890, 146 suites, zero regressions. Web build clean.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
VYNDR 2.0 conversion, Phase F (mobile is the PWA we launch first). Frontend-only;
zero backend changes.
- BottomTabBar rewritten to the §6 5-tab spec: Slate/Terminal/Scan/Ledger/More,
with Scan as the prominent raised grade-green action. Shown for anon too (only
mobile nav). Integrated More bottom sheet (sheet-up, backdrop dismiss, 48px mono
rows). iOS safe-area + 44px touch targets.
- Nav hamburger retired on mobile (tab bar owns nav).
- globals.css mobile section: tab-bar hidden >=768, main bottom padding,
grade-hero 80px, terminal-grid stacks, game-lines horizontal scroll.
- PWA: manifest shortcuts (Slate/Scan/Terminal) + categories; viewport-fit=cover.
Gotcha: `as const` on the TABS array broke type-check (distinct literal types);
fixed with a shared TabDef interface.
19 new tests. Backend 1853 -> 1872, 145 suites, zero regressions. Web build clean.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
VYNDR 2.0 conversion, Phase E. Frontend-only; zero backend changes.
- lib/slateAdapter.js: parseAmericanOdds, detectBestLines, mapScheduleToGameCards
(best/worst line detection — the Bloomberg pattern).
- Reskinned the LEGACY GameCard's game-lines grid with best/worst highlighting +
SportBadge, keeping inline grading intact (a wholesale swap to the display-only
vyndr/GameCard would have deleted the slate's grading interaction).
- compare/invite/help/about: RouteStubs -> real design-system pages.
- login reskinned (scanlines, system voice, new Wordmark); pricing + ClaimMeter.
Honest scope: the full GameCard swap needs inline grading ported into the new
component first; profile/settings/blog/game-detail reskins are light/deferred.
18 new tests. Backend 1839 -> 1853, 144 suites, zero regressions. Web build clean.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
VYNDR 2.0 conversion, Phase D (the screens users touch). Frontend-only; zero
backend changes.
- GradeResultCard + ProcessingGrade (the core product moment): intel-surface
grade hero, signal breakdown, kill conditions, best-book strip, alt ladder;
sections self-hide when empty.
- lib/gradeAdapter.js maps engine output -> §7 contract and tier-gates content
(free teaser / analyst kill-conditions / desk alt ladder) so the new card
doesn't give paid content away.
- Scan result wired to ProcessingGrade->GradeResultCard, preserving scan limits,
parlay add, reads tracking, and noopener sportsbook deep-links.
- GameCard (Bloomberg best/worst line cells) built + tested.
- Terminal page replaces its stub with a real league-intelligence screen.
- Landing gets the founder-seat ClaimMeter.
Honest scope: live dashboard/Slate swap onto GameCard, scan input -> TerminalInput,
full landing rebuild, and the blurred-paywall polish (Phase G) are deferred to
keep working flows stable.
22 new tests. Backend 1818 -> 1839, 143 suites, zero regressions. Web build clean.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
VYNDR 2.0 conversion, Phase C (the frame every page sits inside). Frontend-only;
zero backend changes.
- Nav rewritten: new .wm Wordmark, mono uppercase links, More dropdown, search/
bell/read-meter/avatar, Ticker under the bar. layout main paddingTop 64 -> 96.
- Routing: web/src/lib/routes.js (GATED/OPEN/HASH_ALIASES, isGatedRoute,
resolveHashAlias). Client AuthGate bounces signed-out users off personal
routes to /login?next=. HashRedirect maps #scan/#terminal to real routes.
- Footer rewritten to system voice + Detroit signature; mounted globally in
layout (removed per-page dup).
- 404 converted to the north star (scanlines, crt-sweep, glitch wordmark, amber).
- Stub pages for terminal/compare/invite/help/about/notifications via RouteStub.
Honest reconciliations: auth gate is client-side (no auth-helpers pkg; session is
client-side Supabase); GATED narrowed to protect the free-scan funnel; did not
stub over existing real pages; redirect param is ?next= (what /login reads).
26 new tests. Backend 1792 -> 1818, 142 suites, zero regressions. Web build clean.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
- gradeSlateService writes grades:{sport} cache (closes content pipeline →
dataLevel full); fire-and-forget from oddsService.recordDownstream, gated
by shouldGradeSlate (off in test, GRADE_SLATE_ON_FETCH override)
- NFL/NHL wired: oddsService SPORT_KEYS/SPORT_MARKETS (correct the-odds-api
keys americanfootball_nfl/icehockey_nhl), proplineAdapter MARKETS, NHL
MARKET_MAP keys to avoid silent-zero
- rate limiting mounted on 8 public cached routers (odds/parlay 30/min,
rest 60/min)
- jsonlLogger writes to temp under test (no more dirtied tracked artifact);
5MB pipeline test given 20s timeout
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
builtbykev